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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (4 Viewers)

swirvenirvin said:
while i agree for the most part I would say he is better at these types of bets where there is a potential for a lot of value
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This.  

You take some random week 7 game and it seems like he's 50/50.  The season long or stuff for week 1 where the public isn't up to speed yet is where he does well.

He is big on Florida this year.  If they start off 6-0 obviously the public will notice and vegas will adjust.  Week 1 not the case.

 
I had my first fashion design class this morning. It was me, five chicks, and two gay dudes. One of the women was wearing a black tank top with no bra and I saw her nipple it's going to be a great summer.

 
Ntilikina u9.5 -170

Giles o15.5 -222

Hart u39.5 -160

Internationals in R1 u4 -200

Monk o7.5 -180

 
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Game of the year released at the golden nugget today...

1/ Some of the 105 CFB Games of Year at @GoldenNuggetLV, posted at noon PT today, seeing significant line movement. @Covers

2/ Per @Gollumlv, biggest movers so far: TCU from -1 to -3 at ARK; FLA -9.5 to -8 vs. TEN; ORE -10.5 to -8 at WYO. @Covers

3/ And, per @Gollumlv, Georgia-Florida jumps fence at @GoldenNuggetLV. He opened FLA -1, it's now Georgia -1. @Covers

 
TheGooRoo said:
Looks like someone disagrees with Steele on Florida.  I do too.
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Yup.  M isn't short on talent, just experience.  I like the Florida angle here but I can understand why people would back Big Blue.

The early move I don't get is TCU vs Ark.  TCU didn't look very good last year and word out of the Spring game was Kenny Trill looked like a  :tfp:

 
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The Ref said:
This.  

You take some random week 7 game and it seems like he's 50/50.  The season long or stuff for week 1 where the public isn't up to speed yet is where he does well.

He is big on Florida this year.  If they start off 6-0 obviously the public will notice and vegas will adjust.  Week 1 not the case.
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Texas was his most improved team last year iirc.  Their week 1 line was really fishy with #10 Notre Dame only favored by 4 and ~2/3 of the bets were on Notre Dame.  Texas won 50-47 in OT.

I had gone back on what I could find from 2011-16, Steele's most improved teams went 31-21 ATS in week 1.  I wish I had historical betting splits too, but those contrarian prime time games where he really thinks a team improved are something to keep in mind.  Even without them, 59.6% is a nice clip to hit.

 
tjnc09 said:
Texas was his most improved team last year iirc.  Their week 1 line was really fishy with #10 Notre Dame only favored by 4 and ~2/3 of the bets were on Notre Dame.  Texas won 50-47 in OT.

I had gone back on what I could find from 2011-16, Steele's most improved teams went 31-21 ATS in week 1.  I wish I had historical betting splits too, but those contrarian prime time games where he really thinks a team improved are something to keep in mind.  Even without them, 59.6% is a nice clip to hit.
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he has two different lists.  Most improved and biggest surprise.  Florida is his 1 surprise team.  

 
In case you weren't up at 3am crunching golf stats:

Round 2 Travelers 

Noh +135 over Na                          8:20 eastern

Stallings -135 over Blair                 7:10 eastern

 
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ChainsawU said:
Since last season Braves/Foltynewicz 10-2 SU +$1,188 (1st MLB) versus an opposing starter they've already seen.

Braves +100
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I'm not betting AGAINST Jimmy Nelson right now. I WAS going to bet ON him. Maybe now I'll pass. Thanks for nothin' Chain.

 
I understand. There are three teams that have seen him more than once this season:

Apr 18, 2017 away Cubs
Jun 13, 2017 away Cardinals
Jun 18, 2017 home Padres

Look up those road games. I was thinking about ATL team total this morning but the sun hadn't even come up yet and books hadn't released any - but it was because those ATL games I mentioned w/Folty have been seeing some runs, especially this year: link

 
Clearly been better home pitcher than road, and the Padres are, the Padres. Hard to see past the 62/11 K/BB ratio the last 2 months. 1HR/12IP in the bandbox........should be interesting. I have no problem sitting on the sidelines and watching.

 
hooter311 said:
In case you weren't up at 3am crunching golf stats:

Round 2 Travelers 

Noh +135 over Na                          8:20 eastern

Stallings -135 over Blair                 7:10 eastern
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hammered Mitrione -125. you got anything for Bellator?

 
My girlfriend wears 100% cotton pajamas at night and this season Jharel Cotton is 0-5 SU with 28 runs allowed in 24 innings at night.

White Sox +105
White Sox o5 +115

 
Vogt was designated for assignment yesterday. Cotton's ERA is highest when with Bruce Maxwell starts at catcher.

 
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On the Yankees you could go with a couple different Tanaka fade situations this season like days of rest and how they are lined on the ML. But I like this one for his career. It's small and arbitrary but it's clean and I like it - the total stuck out to me - during his whole career the Yankees are 4-6 SU in Tanaka's starts with a total of 9 or more (0-6 SU scoring < 9 runs).

Rangers 108

 
hooter311 said:
In case you weren't up at 3am crunching golf stats:

Round 2 Travelers 

Noh +135 over Na                          8:20 eastern         LOSS

Stallings -135 over Blair                 7:10 eastern       WIN

1-1  even
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Round 3 PGA Travelers:

Troy Merritt -110 over Boo Weekley

 
Hamilton Nolan had  a pretty good piece up on Deadspin about the Ward/Kovalev fight, during which he mentions a conversation with a Vegas bookie who says that Golovkin will get down to -140 once the cartel money comes in on Alvarez. It's about -170 right now. Take that FWIW.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Hamilton Nolan had  a pretty good piece up on Deadspin about the Ward/Kovalev fight, during which he mentions a conversation with a Vegas bookie who says that Golovkin will get down to -140 once the cartel money comes in on Alvarez. It's about -170 right now. Take that FWIW.
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Makes sense.  -170 seems real close to true odds. I'm happy GGG got his money fight, I hope he comes game this time compared to his last couple outings.

For mules laundering cartel cash through vegas casinos, these directions would be very hard to get wrong:  Take bag of cash to counter, say Mexican beats Russian.

 
"For what it's worth" "from someone close to the camp" the Mitrone fight tonight is going to be a fast and furious fight.

no guarantees but I don't think it goes over 1.5.

 
The Ref said:
"For what it's worth" "from someone close to the camp" the Mitrone fight tonight is going to be a fast and furious fight.

no guarantees but I don't think it goes over 1.5.
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Mitrione should ragdoll Fedor until the ref calls it or Fedor locks something crazy on out of nowhere.  

 
hooter311 said:
Makes sense.  -170 seems real close to true odds. I'm happy GGG got his money fight, I hope he comes game this time compared to his last couple outings.

For mules laundering cartel cash through vegas casinos, these directions would be very hard to get wrong:  Take bag of cash to counter, say Mexican beats Russian.
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+1 on GGG. He seems like a ridiculously kind and stand-up dude in a sport that constantly lacks for them. 

The Jacobs fight changed everything. GGG's look-ahead odds vs. Canelo went from -400 to right about where they are now. Paddy had them back up right after the Jacobs fight at -175and they haven't moved far from them since. Similarly, it compelled De La Hoya to finally come out of the cold and make the fight. 

He hasn't taken a lot of punishment and he still seems indestructible, but I think it's fair to say that he's lost maybe one step. The concern for me is that GGG fights another measured, jab-heavy, tactical fight, and something goofy happens on the scorecards, given that Canelo's positioned as the premier Vegas PPV attraction now, and can rake in a ton for the town on the traditional Mexican fight weekends. I think GGG should take some risks and "blitz" Canelo a bit, the same way Joshua did to Klitschko, to great effect.

 
The Ref said:
"For what it's worth" "from someone close to the camp" the Mitrone fight tonight is going to be a fast and furious fight.

no guarantees but I don't think it goes over 1.5.
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I feel like you're telling me to unload a large bet here...what time EST will this fight be?

 
lumpy19 said:
I feel like you're telling me to unload a large bet here...what time EST will this fight be?
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11 pm

I have it maxed solo and parlayed with the Sonnen under as well.  Another regular unit on those 2 + Larkin Parlay that pays 3.14

UFC card tomorrow evening, same time as the race.  Hard sports to watch together.  I'd rather listen to NASCAR on the radio anyway.

 
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