What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (8 Viewers)

swirvenirvin said:
while i agree for the most part I would say he is better at these types of bets where there is a potential for a lot of value
Click to expand...
This.  

You take some random week 7 game and it seems like he's 50/50.  The season long or stuff for week 1 where the public isn't up to speed yet is where he does well.

He is big on Florida this year.  If they start off 6-0 obviously the public will notice and vegas will adjust.  Week 1 not the case.

 
I had my first fashion design class this morning. It was me, five chicks, and two gay dudes. One of the women was wearing a black tank top with no bra and I saw her nipple it's going to be a great summer.

 
Ntilikina u9.5 -170

Giles o15.5 -222

Hart u39.5 -160

Internationals in R1 u4 -200

Monk o7.5 -180

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Game of the year released at the golden nugget today...

1/ Some of the 105 CFB Games of Year at @GoldenNuggetLV, posted at noon PT today, seeing significant line movement. @Covers

2/ Per @Gollumlv, biggest movers so far: TCU from -1 to -3 at ARK; FLA -9.5 to -8 vs. TEN; ORE -10.5 to -8 at WYO. @Covers

3/ And, per @Gollumlv, Georgia-Florida jumps fence at @GoldenNuggetLV. He opened FLA -1, it's now Georgia -1. @Covers

 
TheGooRoo said:
Looks like someone disagrees with Steele on Florida.  I do too.
Click to expand...
Yup.  M isn't short on talent, just experience.  I like the Florida angle here but I can understand why people would back Big Blue.

The early move I don't get is TCU vs Ark.  TCU didn't look very good last year and word out of the Spring game was Kenny Trill looked like a  :tfp:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
The Ref said:
This.  

You take some random week 7 game and it seems like he's 50/50.  The season long or stuff for week 1 where the public isn't up to speed yet is where he does well.

He is big on Florida this year.  If they start off 6-0 obviously the public will notice and vegas will adjust.  Week 1 not the case.
Click to expand...
Texas was his most improved team last year iirc.  Their week 1 line was really fishy with #10 Notre Dame only favored by 4 and ~2/3 of the bets were on Notre Dame.  Texas won 50-47 in OT.

I had gone back on what I could find from 2011-16, Steele's most improved teams went 31-21 ATS in week 1.  I wish I had historical betting splits too, but those contrarian prime time games where he really thinks a team improved are something to keep in mind.  Even without them, 59.6% is a nice clip to hit.

 
tjnc09 said:
Texas was his most improved team last year iirc.  Their week 1 line was really fishy with #10 Notre Dame only favored by 4 and ~2/3 of the bets were on Notre Dame.  Texas won 50-47 in OT.

I had gone back on what I could find from 2011-16, Steele's most improved teams went 31-21 ATS in week 1.  I wish I had historical betting splits too, but those contrarian prime time games where he really thinks a team improved are something to keep in mind.  Even without them, 59.6% is a nice clip to hit.
Click to expand...
he has two different lists.  Most improved and biggest surprise.  Florida is his 1 surprise team.  

 
In case you weren't up at 3am crunching golf stats:

Round 2 Travelers 

Noh +135 over Na                          8:20 eastern

Stallings -135 over Blair                 7:10 eastern

 
Last edited by a moderator:
ChainsawU said:
Since last season Braves/Foltynewicz 10-2 SU +$1,188 (1st MLB) versus an opposing starter they've already seen.

Braves +100
Click to expand...
I'm not betting AGAINST Jimmy Nelson right now. I WAS going to bet ON him. Maybe now I'll pass. Thanks for nothin' Chain.

 
I understand. There are three teams that have seen him more than once this season:

Apr 18, 2017 away Cubs
Jun 13, 2017 away Cardinals
Jun 18, 2017 home Padres

Look up those road games. I was thinking about ATL team total this morning but the sun hadn't even come up yet and books hadn't released any - but it was because those ATL games I mentioned w/Folty have been seeing some runs, especially this year: link

 
Clearly been better home pitcher than road, and the Padres are, the Padres. Hard to see past the 62/11 K/BB ratio the last 2 months. 1HR/12IP in the bandbox........should be interesting. I have no problem sitting on the sidelines and watching.

 
hooter311 said:
In case you weren't up at 3am crunching golf stats:

Round 2 Travelers 

Noh +135 over Na                          8:20 eastern

Stallings -135 over Blair                 7:10 eastern
Click to expand...
hammered Mitrione -125. you got anything for Bellator?

 
My girlfriend wears 100% cotton pajamas at night and this season Jharel Cotton is 0-5 SU with 28 runs allowed in 24 innings at night.

White Sox +105
White Sox o5 +115

 
Vogt was designated for assignment yesterday. Cotton's ERA is highest when with Bruce Maxwell starts at catcher.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
On the Yankees you could go with a couple different Tanaka fade situations this season like days of rest and how they are lined on the ML. But I like this one for his career. It's small and arbitrary but it's clean and I like it - the total stuck out to me - during his whole career the Yankees are 4-6 SU in Tanaka's starts with a total of 9 or more (0-6 SU scoring < 9 runs).

Rangers 108

 
hooter311 said:
In case you weren't up at 3am crunching golf stats:

Round 2 Travelers 

Noh +135 over Na                          8:20 eastern         LOSS

Stallings -135 over Blair                 7:10 eastern       WIN

1-1  even
Click to expand...
Round 3 PGA Travelers:

Troy Merritt -110 over Boo Weekley

 
Hamilton Nolan had  a pretty good piece up on Deadspin about the Ward/Kovalev fight, during which he mentions a conversation with a Vegas bookie who says that Golovkin will get down to -140 once the cartel money comes in on Alvarez. It's about -170 right now. Take that FWIW.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Hamilton Nolan had  a pretty good piece up on Deadspin about the Ward/Kovalev fight, during which he mentions a conversation with a Vegas bookie who says that Golovkin will get down to -140 once the cartel money comes in on Alvarez. It's about -170 right now. Take that FWIW.
Click to expand...
Makes sense.  -170 seems real close to true odds. I'm happy GGG got his money fight, I hope he comes game this time compared to his last couple outings.

For mules laundering cartel cash through vegas casinos, these directions would be very hard to get wrong:  Take bag of cash to counter, say Mexican beats Russian.

 
"For what it's worth" "from someone close to the camp" the Mitrone fight tonight is going to be a fast and furious fight.

no guarantees but I don't think it goes over 1.5.

 
The Ref said:
"For what it's worth" "from someone close to the camp" the Mitrone fight tonight is going to be a fast and furious fight.

no guarantees but I don't think it goes over 1.5.
Click to expand...
Mitrione should ragdoll Fedor until the ref calls it or Fedor locks something crazy on out of nowhere.  

 
hooter311 said:
Makes sense.  -170 seems real close to true odds. I'm happy GGG got his money fight, I hope he comes game this time compared to his last couple outings.

For mules laundering cartel cash through vegas casinos, these directions would be very hard to get wrong:  Take bag of cash to counter, say Mexican beats Russian.
Click to expand...
+1 on GGG. He seems like a ridiculously kind and stand-up dude in a sport that constantly lacks for them. 

The Jacobs fight changed everything. GGG's look-ahead odds vs. Canelo went from -400 to right about where they are now. Paddy had them back up right after the Jacobs fight at -175and they haven't moved far from them since. Similarly, it compelled De La Hoya to finally come out of the cold and make the fight. 

He hasn't taken a lot of punishment and he still seems indestructible, but I think it's fair to say that he's lost maybe one step. The concern for me is that GGG fights another measured, jab-heavy, tactical fight, and something goofy happens on the scorecards, given that Canelo's positioned as the premier Vegas PPV attraction now, and can rake in a ton for the town on the traditional Mexican fight weekends. I think GGG should take some risks and "blitz" Canelo a bit, the same way Joshua did to Klitschko, to great effect.

 
The Ref said:
"For what it's worth" "from someone close to the camp" the Mitrone fight tonight is going to be a fast and furious fight.

no guarantees but I don't think it goes over 1.5.
Click to expand...
I feel like you're telling me to unload a large bet here...what time EST will this fight be?

 
lumpy19 said:
I feel like you're telling me to unload a large bet here...what time EST will this fight be?
Click to expand...
11 pm

I have it maxed solo and parlayed with the Sonnen under as well.  Another regular unit on those 2 + Larkin Parlay that pays 3.14

UFC card tomorrow evening, same time as the race.  Hard sports to watch together.  I'd rather listen to NASCAR on the radio anyway.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

⚡
Options for watching NFL Games in 2025
Replies
49
Views
9K
InDitkaWeTrust
InDitkaWeTrust
snellman
Class of 2026 support thread.
Replies
16
Views
557
FarFromHome
FarFromHome
Max Power
Most Embarrassing Thing Someone in Your Family Does?
2 3
Replies
108
Views
3K
Zow
Zow

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 3 (members: 0, guests: 3)
Back
Top