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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (4 Viewers)

got_nugs said:
I wish we kept it within, say, 2 touchdowns.  Then I could blame this on you, Cook. Now tonight i'll just sit in a dark room by myself watching replays of Peter Warrick.
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I will say that it makes me kinda happy, as a Ducks homer, to see Taggart look da fool.  Except I'm MORE of a fool for betting on him 2 of the last 3 weeks.  I hate me more than you do.

 
Eagles -3
Steelers -4 1/2
Saints -9
Panthers +6
Car/Atl O43 1/2
LAC/Buf U43
Texans -3
Det/SF O48 1/2
Broncos -1/2 / 49'ers PK

 
I know they were down big, but the reverence for Saban kinda made me puke.  Ole Miss looked like they were just running out the last 20 minutes or so of the game.  Maybe I read that wrong, seemed that way though.

 
 J.Jones receiving yards over 98½ -115

 L.Miller rushing yards over 63½ -115

P.Mahomes passing yards over 255½ -115

T.Hill receiving yards over 70½ -135

D.Johnson rushing yards under 63½ -115

M.Breida rushing yards under 47½ -115

 
Since 1990 only 11 teams have tried to play three games in eleven days. The Jets go into Cleveland and will try to win in that situation on Thursday. I don't think it's going to be pretty. Browns win by double digits & I already picked up Browns DST to plug in dynasty.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
I'm out of the penalty box!!!!

Betting Yildrim -170 and Cook/Munguia un 7.5 for this weekend. There was an awesome lined that flashed open in Europe, Jose Ramirez -225, but that's long gone so no play there.

No real feel for the big one. Public's on Canelo, even with his question marks (lack of PEDs, a knee surgery a few months ago). It is not an overstatement to say that Golden Boy, his promoter, HBO Sports, and even the city of Las Vegas to some extent have a lot riding on this one. Canelo will still be a draw if he loses, but not to the same extent imo. It's likely to go to the cards, and the judges they have all have a decent rep, but man, I can't pull the trigger on GGG knowing the economic disruption that he can cause here. GGG is a draw to a lesser extent, but nowhere near the level of Alvarez.

In the ring, it should be another great fight. Small lean on it to go the distance, but not enough to bet.
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Very surprising fight. Canelo's really good man, but the judges were shading towards him imo and that was the difference.

 
Melvin Gordon Rushing Yards Under 82.5

L. McCoy Rushing Yards over 64.5

Watkins Receiving Yards Over 36.5

Kamara Rushing yards Over 66.5

Breida Rushing Yards Over 47.5

Morris Rushing Yards Over 50.5

Cooper Receving Yards Over 42.5

Sanders Receiving Yards Over 62.5

Texans -3

Pats -1.5

Steelers -5

Panthers +7

Cardinals +13

Jets -3

49ers -5.5

Redskins -5.5

 
As the leader of this gambling circle, I want to welcome all the new faces who've joined us in this thread for the 2018 NFL Season.

Enjoy your stay, we appreciate anyone who can help contribute to our collective brain trust here.

With that said, I've been noticing that a lot of people are just posting a high volume plays without any significant of plays without a write up or explanation. To say the least, this isn't very helpful.

A good example to follow is ChainsawU. Look through his posting history and you will see that almost EVERY play he posts is supported by some type of data or explanation. That is the stuff that WINNING sports betting is built on.

Posting 1 PLAY with an explanation as to WHY you like the play is much more helpful than posting a laundry list of plays with no explanation.

It helps us get into your head and build credibility on whether you're a fade or follow candidate. Furthermore, if you let us know exactly what you're thinking WE can help point out flaws / shortcomings in your logic.

It's also my experience that the guys who think they can cap EVERY SINGLE GAME on a card, lack the ability to cap any game on the card.

If you're an expert on everything, then you're an expert on nothing. A huge part of sports gambling is being able to look at a game and simply say, "pass".

I already know what your response is going to be. "I just do this for fun. This is recreation for me."

To me, that's just a lame way of saying "I'm not willing to put in the effort required to win".

 
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Stuart Ullman said:
As the leader of this gambling circle, I want to welcome all the new faces who've joined us in this thread for the 2018 NFL Season.

Enjoy your stay, we appreciate anyone who can help contribute to our collective brain trust here.

With that said, I've been noticing that a lot of people are just posting a high volume plays without any significant of plays without a write up or explanation. To say the least, this isn't very helpful.

A good example to follow is ChainsawU. Look through his posting history and you will see that almost EVERY play he posts is supported by some type of data or explanation. That is the stuff that WINNING sports betting is built on.

Posting 1 PLAY with an explanation as to WHY you like the play is much more helpful than posting a laundry list of plays with no explanation.

It helps us get into your head and build credibility on whether you're a fade or follow candidate. Furthermore, if you let us know exactly what you're thinking WE can help point out flaws / shortcomings in your logic.

It's also my experience that the guys who think they can cap EVERY SINGLE GAME on a card, lack the ability to cap any game on the card.

If you're an expert on everything, then you're an expert on nothing. A huge part of sports gambling is being able to look at a game and simply say, "pass".

I already know what your response is going to be. "I just do this for fun. This is recreation for me."

To me, that's just a lame way of saying "I'm not willing to put in the effort required to win".
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Settle down Jr.

 
Darts, this time with less chalk contrarianism.

Stafford (Garoppolo)

Kamara, Gurley

Tate, Golladay, Pettis

Kittle

Conner

Eagles (Rams)
 
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Angry Beavers said:
TItans down to a 3rd string RT and starting Gabbert........ Hou -3.5 please
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source on gabbert starting?

Latest info I see is from Rotoworld that marcus is going to try and play

Bookmaker posted him a 220.5 and i pretty much unloaded my entire account on the under

 
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lumpy19 said:
source on gabbert starting?

Latest info I see is from Rotoworld that marcus is going to try and play

Bookmaker posted him a 220.5 and i pretty much unloaded my entire account on the under
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From Rotoworld:

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports it's "looking more" like Blaine Gabbert will start in Week 2 against the Texans.

Marcus Mariota (elbow) was limited in warm-ups and is still struggling to grip the football. There is no official word from the Titans just yet, but it sounds like Gabbert will be starting behind a makeshift offensive line missing both starting tackles.

Source: Adam Schefter on Twitter

Sep 16 - 10:45 AM

FWIW, The will try to play post was at 9:48 am - this came out an hour later. 

 
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Angry Beavers said:
From Rotoworld:

ESPN's Adam Schefter reports it's "looking more" like Blaine Gabbert will start in Week 2 against the Texans.

Marcus Mariota (elbow) was limited in warm-ups and is still struggling to grip the football. There is no official word from the Titans just yet, but it sounds like Gabbert will be starting behind a makeshift offensive line missing both starting tackles.

Source: Adam Schefter on Twitter

Sep 16 - 10:45 AM
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Need mariota to get on that field

 
Houston -4 (-115)

Alvin Kamara over 70.5 (-115)

David Njoku score a TD anytime- YES- (+250)

5 Team parlay

Skins -6

Bills +7.5

Cards +13

Cowboys -3

Seahawks +3.5

That parlay was built effing around with game lines vs 538 Elo lines. Basically if there was a huge discrepancy, I leaned into it. For example, the line on Bovada is Buffalo +7.5, but the Elo line is Buffalo -1. The Elo on Rams/Cards was Rams -7, etc

 
Todays Card:

Houston Texans -3½ (-110) - Titans all banged up (Houston opens with two straight on the road, but I am ignoring that given the Ten QB Situation)

Buffalo Bills +7½ (-110)  - Not a Bender Week 2 Special but JB doesn't hate, so that is good. - 2 units

Pittsburgh Steelers -4½ (-110) - Bender Week 2 Special and KC opening with two on the road - 2 units

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 (-105) - I am in the minority here. Played for only a half unit- Something about the SuperBowl champs going on the road in week 2 - potential letdown spot in a non division game. 

New Orleans Saints -9½ (-110) - Bender approved; Browns are going to Brown 2 units

Minnesota Vikings -2½ (-110) - I can't see Rodgers finishing this game against that Defense; If I am wrong about this they can have my $. 

Indianapolis Colts +6 (-110) - Bender Special

Atlanta Falcons -5½ (-110) - Bender Special and ATL with extra rest. 

Arizona Cardinals +13 (-110) - Hold your nose and figure this is too many points - aka JB Week 2

Detroit Lions +6 (-110) - Same here - JBW2

Oakland Raiders +6½ (-110) - and here - JBW2

New York Giants +3 (-115) - Dallas is pretty disfunctional IMHO and growing up in NJ :homer:

GLTA
AB

 
hagmania said:
Darts, this time with less chalk contrarianism.

Stafford (Garoppolo)

Kamara, Gurley

Tate, Golladay, Pettis

Kittle

Conner

Eagles (Rams)
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I have a couple contrarian picks...

So Carolina is 0-3 the last 3 years in Atlanta but I cant stop myself from taking Carolina +6. I think Atlanta's offense is terrible. Freeman is out. Julio can't seem to find the end zone(although it almost seems by design). I think this is going to be a low scoring affair so 6 points in that should be quite helpful. 

Also liking degrom +1.5(-140) in Boston.  Yes it is -140. Yes it is against Sale. Yes it is the team with the best record in baseball. Yes the Mets suck.....but... It is in Boston. Scherzer just had an awful start in Atlanta. If Degrom can have a signature game he could strengthen his case quite a bit for Cy Young.  The Mets have been playing tough in Boston and have been hitting it out of the park. One or two homers should be just enough. Sale likely wont go as long as normal due to injury. So basically I think this game comes down to the 8th inning where would love to see Boston leading 2-1 and have the mets hold it there.  

 
Stuart Ullman said:
As the leader of this gambling circle, I want to welcome all the new faces who've joined us in this thread for the 2018 NFL Season.

Enjoy your stay, we appreciate anyone who can help contribute to our collective brain trust here.

With that said, I've been noticing that a lot of people are just posting a high volume plays without any significant of plays without a write up or explanation. To say the least, this isn't very helpful.

A good example to follow is ChainsawU. Look through his posting history and you will see that almost EVERY play he posts is supported by some type of data or explanation. That is the stuff that WINNING sports betting is built on.

Posting 1 PLAY with an explanation as to WHY you like the play is much more helpful than posting a laundry list of plays with no explanation.

It helps us get into your head and build credibility on whether you're a fade or follow candidate. Furthermore, if you let us know exactly what you're thinking WE can help point out flaws / shortcomings in your logic.

It's also my experience that the guys who think they can cap EVERY SINGLE GAME on a card, lack the ability to cap any game on the card.

If you're an expert on everything, then you're an expert on nothing. A huge part of sports gambling is being able to look at a game and simply say, "pass".

I already know what your response is going to be. "I just do this for fun. This is recreation for me."

To me, that's just a lame way of saying "I'm not willing to put in the effort required to win".
Click to expand...
ARI +13

 
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