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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (5 Viewers)

facook said:
Dee Ford under 9.5 sacks.  Total slacker except in his contract year.  My 49ers were morons for giving him a big extension.  Sigh.
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i see 9 i dont know anything about sacks but  know they are always really good bets for unders especially over the age of 27 or so

 
Thursday Hoops:

Indiana -2
Creighton -2.5
Florida St. +1
Kansas -2.5

Adding:

Maryland -5.5
Illinois +4.5
Illinois +170 to win a unit

ML parlay:
Nuggets/Texas Tech/Maryland to win 2 units

 
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First time in years I'm not going to Vegas for the first weekend of NCAA.  What are the go to online books these days?  I'm in California if that matters.  

 
SEC 18-3 O/U L21 versus Ole Miss on totals less than 144:

  • 10-0 O/U when those teams come into the game allowing 66+ points per game (Bama allow 72 ppg)
  • 18-0 O/U when Ole Miss scores 66+ points
Bama has sucked in subsequent meetings this year, but this will be the first time they've had more than three days to prepare for a game since beating Kentucky on Jan 5th. Alabama is 15-15-1 O/U this season:
3 or fewer days' rest: 7-15-1 O/U
4+ days to rest/prepare: 8-0 O/U and 10-0 L10 since last March

 
Pasternack going for the third win versus Northridge this season. The first two games were competitive. Gottfried 13-3-1 ATS catching 3+ with the Matadors.

Northridge +212
Northridge +5½ -108

 
  • Bakersfield 9-0 O/U lined less than 4 on totals less than 140 (13-1 since 2016)
  • Rio Grande 6-0 O/U versus teams that average less than 74 ppg on totals less than 142
Bakersfield/Rio Grande o135 -105

 
today might have been the best day of my life. woke up sore. really sore from two workouts + a massage from going hard yesterday. totally sore and dead. ate two big cheeseburgers that I got delivered - with two orders of fries - and two desserts. then slept on my brand new leather couch all damn day with the TV on and am about to go 6-2 on ncaa basketball after smu wins. booty woman is coming over and wicca just confirmed for saturday. just drank a red bull

 
Opposing teams 8-0-1 ATS L9 versus Marshall when the Herd is coming in on less than 2 days' rest (avg line +3). They went 5-0 lined +5 or better, 0-4 lined 7½ or worse..

Southern Miss -2½ -105

 
Dave Paulsen 6-9 SU and 4-10-1 ATS coaching the Patriots in March:
Less than 3 days' rest: 1-7 SU and 0-7-1 ATS
Coming in on 3+ days: 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS

Lost the nine games by -5,-10,-11,-12,-14,-15,-19,-22,-35

  • Went 7-8 O/U (0-8 O/U when Bonnies scored 63 or fewer) and 0-10-1 ATS when Bonnies scored less than 80.
  • plus Mark Schmidt with a total less than 138 and line less than 4 is strong for them L27
G Mason u30 1H
St. Bonaventure -9½/OPEN +600

 
Hoops:

Rhode Island FH +4.5
Ohio St. +11
Florida +4.5
G. Mason FH +2.5 (-115)
Huskers +8 2U
Dayton -4
San Diego St. +11
Wichita St. +110
Michigan -7.5
Duke -3
Oregon -2

 
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gussy said:
Hoops:

Rhode Island FH +4.5
Ohio St. +11
Florida +4.5
G. Mason FH +2.5 (-115)
Huskers +8 2U
Dayton -4
San Diego St. +11
Wichita St. +110
Michigan -7.5
Duke -3
Oregon -2
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I picked the same for all but one of these. Sorry for your loss. 

The bold is safe. 

 
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ChainsawU said:
Dave Paulsen 6-9 SU and 4-10-1 ATS coaching the Patriots in March:
Less than 3 days' rest: 1-7 SU and 0-7-1 ATS
Coming in on 3+ days: 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS

Lost the nine games by -5,-10,-11,-12,-14,-15,-19,-22,-35

  • Went 7-8 O/U (0-8 O/U when Bonnies scored 63 or fewer) and 0-10-1 ATS when Bonnies scored less than 80.
  • plus Mark Schmidt with a total less than 138 and line less than 4 is strong for them L27
G Mason u30 1H
St. Bonaventure -9½/OPEN +600
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:thanks:    

Win2 Team Teaser (ties push) Pleaser tp 6pts NFL

3/13/19 9:10pm  College Basketball  644 UCLA -4½ * vs Stanford 

3/15/19 2:30pm  College Basketball  802 St. Bonaventure -10½ * vs George Mason 

 
Ran into an unders trend yesterday, any O/U greater than 150 has gone under around 75% since the start of conference tourneys. Went 4-1 yesterday. 

 
Hoops:

Sparty -5.5
Gators +3.5
Gophers +9.5
UNCC +4.5
Houston -8.5
Kentucky -1.5
SDSU +6.5
Noles +8
Shockers +5.5

 
eoMMan said:
How should a college basketball noob bet games on Thursday? Just take a few money lines on the big favorites?
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Friend of mine last year placed a $20 parlay on the 4 number one seeds moneylines just to see what the payout would be. Not sure 20 bucks was worth it, lol.

Hard to gleam too much from a lot of the data but here are some fun nuggets going back to 2008...

1. 5 seeds lose ATS about 60% of the time. They are brutal on fridays. They lose ATS about 75% of the time. 

2. If the spread is less than 5 it only matters 9% of the time. 

3. #2 seeds win against the spread on Thursdays over 70% of the time. They lose ats over 60% of the time on fridays. 

 
@TomEggemeier Dayton missed a ton of open shots. 14 points on 6/19 FG from Josh, Obi, & Mikesell will never get it done. Kenpom offensive rating of 38 for Mikesell & 58 for Toppin are terrible - worst offensive ratings in any game over season's 32 games for each of them (Toppin injured). Looking at the statistics this morning. Dayton was -14 turnovers & offensive rebounds in the 1H yet up by 1. Dayton was +3 in the second half yet lost the half by 10 points. This is truly perplexing. Offensive output (lack thereof) versus the 1-3-1 is the only explanation.
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eoMMan said:
How should a college basketball noob bet games on Thursday? Just take a few money lines on the big favorites?
Click to expand...
I'm looking at taking mid-major 10-14 seeds ats this year.  Feel like the margin is smaller than ever between the mid major "good teams" and the power 6 "ok teams."

Also any lower seed that is favored over the higher seed is an auto-hammer.

 
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Sunday Pucks:

Avs/Devils FP U1.5 (+120)

Pens/Flyers FP O1.5 (-220) 2U

Panthers/Ducks FP O1.5 (-115)

 
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Furyk, Scott, Rose, and Matsuyama all live dogs as well.

Someone in the -8 to -10 range will put up a number to beat before the leaders hit the course.  Ollie shot -7 yesterday,, so who knows.

Fowler shot -5 on the last 4 holes in 2015 to take it to a playoff and win, so don't start ripping tickets until its over.

 
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