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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (13 Viewers)

@MarcSessler Oct 23 One of the more underrated returns league-wide: LB Darius Leonard back with the Colts after a stellar performance in Week 7. An All-Pro-level talent.
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Leonard returned to the Colts' starting lineup last week after missing three games with a concussion. The Colts have gone 12-1 SU in the L13 games with Leonard on the field recording more than 3 tackles, with the only loss coming in the divisional playoff game in Kansas City (Mahomes' postseason debut).

 
ChainsawU said:
First time I'd ever seen anyone here using his stuff besides me. It was a breath of fresh air, I was starting to think I was some sort of rube. Found an article in SI just now, it's about a year old, that not only talks about Sagarin, but some dudes named Billingsley and Dunkel, among others. I'd heard of Dunkel before but didn't realize his ratings system was created in the freakin' 1920s! The Computer Poll Uprising: Creators of the BCS's Most Controversial Component Look Back
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Last year i started tracking the 538 win probs vs the moneyline for dogs. Was a net positive for the season, but not by much was really anchored by the buffalo over minny upset. I wanted something to bounce the numbers off of, so to speak to improve the odds. Enter sagarin. Only translates to like 1 pick a week and sometimes no picks when i cross them.

Like this week it just gives me one pick. 538 win prob for KC is 42%. Sagarin has them at 52%. The moneyline is +190. Both numbers translate to +190 being a good bet and the combined is better than 10% above, which is the threshold i like to use, which is completely arbitrary. I want to factor in DVOA as well and expand to shared favorites covering, but cant really figure out how yet. 

I mostly just enjoy doing the legwork, my wife makes fun of all my scratch pads. Not trying to promote this as some groundbreaking formula for a mansion. Will definitely look into dunkel now too. Thanks.

 
Everyone fading buffalo passing cause of wind, not me. Sure it's windy but buffalo doesn't throw downfield and they're not gonna run on philly.

 
lumpy19 said:
Everyone fading buffalo passing cause of wind, not me. Sure it's windy but buffalo doesn't throw downfield and they're not gonna run on philly.
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liked overs originally just staying away for me.

do like wilson unders now with schauby playing.. his line didnt moves but went from 3 to 8 pot favorites we know what seattle does once they get the lead

 
Giants +6.5, Cardinals +12 , Philly/Buf Under what I have for early games;

Winston to thow an INT -210

Evans O 79.5 - 120

Godwin U6.5  - 115 and Under 88.5 - 135

AJ Brown O2.5 - 200 and Over 42.5 - 125

Stills Over 65.5 - 100 and O3.5 - 200

Hilton U66.5 - 135

Sony Michel O70.5 - 120

OBJ U 55.5 - 120

Metcalf, DK, O56.5 - 100

 
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Apologies for past posting, but I have a SD/CAR ML parlay, pays roughly 13/2. Just trying to turn pizza money into steak money. 

 
Rodgers u24.5

Allison o3

Watkins u47.5

Demarcus u34.5

Graham u36.5

Mccoy o51.5

Moore u250.5

 
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parasaurolophus said:
I want to factor in DVOA as well and expand to shared favorites covering, but cant really figure out how yet. I mostly just enjoy doing the legwork, my wife makes fun of all my scratch pads.
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I noticed you capping with DVOA differential on Thursday, too. Yo, if she was on point with her gift-giving game she'd bring you home some sweet spiral notebooks amirite

 
I fully intended to take the over tonight, then I strode up to the Circa window and confidently ordered the under. I'm going to assume that was my inner voice speaking up. Under 47.5 it is.  :lmao:

 
This a brand new season, but since 2013 Packers have gone 26-9 to the over on the road against teams allowing more than 19 ppg, and 24-1 when the Pack contributed at least 21 points by themselves. It's probably arbitrary. I don't know. Pack needed 27 points to win/cover most of those games, and it went 15-3 to the over when the Pack covered the spread. Think Chiefs' defense steps up tonight?

I added Packers Under 23 +239 cheers fellas

 
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That's a pretty good number in the NFL. I kinda figured live betting would've been going crazy with the majority on the Pack and the immediate two-touchdown lead..

 
Seemed like a really good weekend to stand with Vegas.  Any games that were widely reported to have big money discrepancies seem to have went Vegas way.

there were reports that Oregon had 85% of the money last night.

simular situation tonight with KC.

 
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