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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (8 Viewers)

swirvenirvin said:
remember only take them if below 33% for the one category.  Ive been trying to post about an hour before if they still fall into that category.

Then Miam and NW are both on the ranked vs unranked and NW is close to the 33% 
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Miami showing 69% of # of public spread bets now (41% in that article - though that may have been the total public spend).  Not going to bet it, but am going to switch my bowl pickem pick to WVU

 
gussy said:
Pitt allowed 2 rushers all year to go over 100 yards, and one was kind of fluky, when Childs of Okie St. did it in 10 carries. One other rusher went over the 92 1/2 currently posted. In the 5 games NW lost this year Justin Jackson went over 92 1/2 yards once. I'm not convinced NW loses here, but still.............

Justin Jackson U92.5  (-115)
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97.5 -110 at bovada

 
The rest of eastman stuff

4 Unit Play. #244 Take OVER 65 in Northwestern Wildcats vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (Pin Stripe Bowl, Wednesday, 12/28, 2 pm ESPN) The Wildcats have a lot to play for in this game after getting embarrassed by Tennessee last year in Florida. Pittsburgh has gone over the posted total in 4 straight bowl games. Pittsburgh has also gone over the posted total in 22 of their last 31 games (1 push).

4 Unit Play. #245 Take West Virginia Mountaineers +3 over Miami (FL) Hurricanes (Russell Athletic Bowl, Wednesday, 12/28, 5:30 pm ESPN) I just believe West Virginia has been undervalued all season long by the oddsmakers and they will take down Miami in Orlando tonight. Miami struggled to beat top teams in the ACC, losing four straight games at one point before beating up on bad teams to close out the regular season. West Virginia has the much better defense, and I just believe this senior-laden Hurricane team is ready to move on from the season and this mediocre bowl game. Miami is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 neutral-site games. 60% of the money is on the underdog and for good reason as West Virginia wins their second straight bowl game.

4 Unit Play. #248 Take UNDER 54 in Indiana Hoosiers vs. Utah Utes (Foster Farms Bowl, Wednesday, 12/28, 8:30 pm FOX)The Hoosiers have a new coach for this game and they will struggle to move the football against this stout Utah defense. Indiana now has a defensive minded coach and expect him to play it close to the best. Indiana did not light up the scoreboard toward the end of the year and they will struggle to get over 24 points in this game.

8 Unit Play. #250 Take Texas A&M Aggies -2 over Kansas State Wildcats (Texas Bowl, Wednesday, 12/28 9 pm ESPN) BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR. The Aggies are starting to get healthy with Myles Garrett and Trevor Knight expected to suit up for this game. They just have too many weapons on offense for Kansas State to keep pace with. Everybody loves Bill Snyder, but the game has passed him by as the Wildcats still feature a run-heavy offense that can be contained by a disciplined defense. Kansas State has not been very competitive in their last two bowl games (both losses), and they will complete the trifecta this Wednesday. We went against them two years ago with our Bowl Game of the Year and UCLA dominated that game even though the final score did not indicate that (UCLA won and covered the spread). Kansas State is 1-5 ATS in their last six bowl games. A&M once again did not finish out the season well but the time off has done them good and they should be ready to finish out the season on a high note. Kansas State is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 neutral-site games. A&M is 4-1 in their last 5 neutral-site games. Both trends hold true on Wednesday and we lay the small change with the more athletic team.

 
Tiger Fan said:
Miami showing 69% of # of public spread bets now (41% in that article - though that may have been the total public spend).  Not going to bet it, but am going to switch my bowl pickem pick to WVU
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That one had nothing to do with % of money in the analysis at least.

Im still on them with fading eastman and the ranked vs unranked

 
swirvenirvin said:
That one had nothing to do with % of money in the analysis at least.

Im still on them with fading eastman and the ranked vs unranked
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"During the 2016 season, unranked schools went 111-92 ATS (54.7 percent) against unranked opponents. It's interesting to note there were nine instances in which the unranked team actually closed as the favorite, but the more compelling takeaway is the performance of unranked teams during bowl season.

Since 2005, unranked teams have gone 43-32 ATS (57.3 percent) in bowl games played against ranked opponents. When they're also offering contrarian value and receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets, that record improves to 40-28 ATS (58.8 percent)."

Slight uptick...but yeah, you're point is valid.

 
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here are DOcsports plays

4-Unit Play. Take #245 West Virginia (+2.5) over Miami (5:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 28)

Russell Athletic Bowl.

Miami is a team that started out the season hot. They started the season 4-0 and worked into the Top 20. But then the Hurricanes lost four in a row before closing the season with four more wins. This team has been up and down. But the Hurricanes only have three wins over current bowl teams. They were beating up on bad teams. This Miami team is overrated. Mark Richt is just 2-3 SU in his last five bowl games. Dana Holgorsen just signed a big new contract with West Virginia. That has given this program a lot of confidence. The Mountaineers are 18-7 SU in their last 25 games and won last year's Cactus Bowl. WVU has won four of its last five games and they are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games. The Hurricanes are 0-5 ATS in their last five bowl games. I think that the public is overvaluing Miami and I like the underdog to get a big win to cap the season.

5-Unit Play. Take #247 Indiana (+7.5) over Utah (8:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 28)

Foster Farms Bowl.

Indiana is a very active underdog in this one. They are playing in back-to-back bowl games for the first time in over 20 years. Indiana came up just short last year in the Pinstripe Bowl, losing 44-41. The Hoosiers are also going to be very focused in this game. Indiana fired its coach and named defensive coordinator Tom Allen as the head coach. I think that Allen will have his team playing hard. The Hoosiers also have a big edge in this game. Indiana has a Top 25 passing game on offense and Utah is No. 102 in pass defense. The Hoosiers will be able to score points in this one and take control of the game. Utah has only outscored its opponents by six points per game. They are No. 58 in offense and No. 52 in defense and this is a very average team. I think that Indiana has a great chance for the upset and I think that if they get down early in this game they will be able to pass their way into it. I will take the points in this one.

 
Tiger Fan said:
"During the 2016 season, unranked schools went 111-92 ATS (54.7 percent) against unranked opponents. It's interesting to note there were nine instances in which the unranked team actually closed as the favorite, but the more compelling takeaway is the performance of unranked teams during bowl season.

Since 2005, unranked teams have gone 43-32 ATS (57.3 percent) in bowl games played against ranked opponents. When they're also offering contrarian value and receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets, that record improves to 40-28 ATS (58.8 percent)."
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doc and eastman on WV..  All over the canes :D

 
I got a weird feeling with the contrarian fade on Pitt since it's a day game. Just feels weird like the handle on the afternoon game might not be up there in dollar amount like the evening/night games will be. I think you need that high dollar amount to play the contrarian, just my opinion, but remember Central Michigan last Monday:

The Ref said:
Something going on with this game?  CMU was +14 10 min ago and it was +11 at kickoff
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And then they got taken to the shed. So I'm staying away from the day game. And I'm not sold on the contrarian on the 5:30PM game, either. Plus, WVU fits the bowl game dog system from yesterday with the opponent coming in on a > 3 ATS streak. Favorite play is the A&M play with the book giving the majority (especially at S&O) the full three points to bet with, so it's A&M and WVU for me today.

 
Tiger Fan said:
Miami showing 69% of # of public spread bets now (41% in that article - though that may have been the total public spend).  Not going to bet it, but am going to switch my bowl pickem pick to WVU
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41% was the split at the time of the article, but that was from two weeks ago.  Doesn't mean anything now.  Like lines, more information contained closer to kick off/tip.

 
ChainsawU said:
I got a weird feeling with the contrarian fade on Pitt since it's a day game. Just feels weird like the handle on the afternoon game might not be up there in dollar amount like the evening/night games will be. I think you need that high dollar amount to play the contrarian, just my opinion, but remember Central Michigan last Monday:

And then they got taken to the shed. So I'm staying away from the day game. And I'm not sold on the contrarian on the 5:30PM game, either. Plus, WVU fits the bowl game dog system from yesterday with the opponent coming in on a > 3 ATS streak. Favorite play is the A&M play with the book giving the majority (especially at S&O) the full three points to bet with, so it's A&M and WVU for me today.
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I think it's big enough.  There is nothing else to bet except UMass/GA State CBB. 

 
swirvenirvin said:
What are you playing I thought the majority of the thread had a very good day yesterday on the posted sides and totals
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I wasn't tailing here yesterday except props.  I'd played sides and totals early in the bowl season and let them ride...and I was super public.  

 
ArbyMelt said:
I've watched every NU game inside and out and follow the team closely (alma mater) and I have no idea on these props. I would think they have to air it out to beat Pitt, but they don't want to get into a slugfest, so they will try to run Jackson. I'm hoping they can spread them out with the pass and open up the running lanes and keep that Pitt offense off the field. Pitt is horrible against the pass but is stout on the DL (top 10 rush defense). I'm curious what Goo comes up with this game. As far as defense, NU is solid against the run, but I worried about the speed around the corner. Our CB's are young (top 2 starting CB's out for the year), they can be beat. I expect us to play our usual soft cover 4 (playing 8-10 yards off the WR's) and attempt the bend don't break defense, hoping for a mistake, or only a FG in the red zone.
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Really looks like a toss up.  Prop wise, I liked how Thorson has been completing 22+ passes win or loss.  Always something to look for, something that isn't really game flow dependent.  What really jumped off the page was the WR comparable to Carr.  Guys like Switzer, Ford, Coley, Artavis Scott, TJ Rahming, Ervin Philips, all just dusted Pitt for dd catches.  Assuming health, just don't see how Carr doesn't hit 8.

 
The crappy inconsistent NU OL is getting manhandled, does not bode well. 

Gonna need quick outs to Carr

 
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Got a letter from USPS International Research Group  about a letter from new zealand (bovada check).

An inquiry has been received from the Foreign Postal Admin of New Zealand concerning the delivary of a letter, article number xxxxxx which was addressed to you and sent byxxxxxx

In order to respond to the foreign postal admin ina  timely manner we mus know where or not you received this item.

 
About to drive myself to the gym and grocery store after not driving a car since Thursday. It's been all taxicabs and ride sharing the L6 days. I'm reading a book right now called Originals by Adam Grant, and it turns out that the reason I don't drink and drive is not because I'm a "good person." It's because I'm managing my "risk portfolio."

 
swirvenirvin said:
Got a letter from USPS International Research Group  about a letter from new zealand (bovada check).

An inquiry has been received from the Foreign Postal Admin of New Zealand concerning the delivary of a letter, article number xxxxxx which was addressed to you and sent byxxxxxx

In order to respond to the foreign postal admin ina  timely manner we mus know where or not you received this item.
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I thought Bovada was some legal operation out of Canada in some Indian territory?

 
IU getting less than 33% of bets, unranked vs ranked, PLUS there is reverse line movement.  Everything in me says take Utah and their amazing bowl coach, but I can't ignore that stuff.  Indiana +6.5

 
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facook said:
IU getting less than 33% of bets, unranked vs ranked, PLUS there is reverse line movement.  Everything in me says take Utah and their amazing bowl coach, but I can't ignore that stuff.  Utah +6.5
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Utah +6.5???

 
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swirvenirvin said:
Gotta figure out which games I dont need to cap for next week to save me some time.

What we got 

Probably

Dal vs Phi

NE vs MIA

CLE vs PIT

NYG vs WAS maybe only WAS

HOU vs TEN

CAR vs TB

Anything else not going to matter or think no lines will be up?
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Added Carolina since they are all dead and probably going to rest the guys

 
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regularguy said:
I know you're consumed with the NBA, but dogs are barking in the bowls so far, especially when the general public is thinking like you are here about FSU. 
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I do think we have seen this before in bowl games though were the dogs come out early, and then later on in the better bowl games the favorite starts to dominate again.

At the very least with that record I posted (16-5) so far that at the least it should start to be back 50/50 and that 11 or 12 difference will not grow much bigger.  Maybe....

 
swirvenirvin said:
I do think we have seen this before in bowl games though were the dogs come out early, and then later on in the better bowl games the favorite starts to dominate again.

At the very least with that record I posted (16-5) so far that at the least it should start to be back 50/50 and that 11 or 12 difference will not grow much bigger.  Maybe....
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Fair enough.  I just instinctively want to bet the other side when I see a statement like he made regardless of who says it. 

 
jamil said:
Wtf I took one deposit out from there years ago for 2k and was cut to $5
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thats 6k for me in the past 20 days.  Trying to keep the balance below 15k, but been making about 1.5-2k there the past few weeks.

Got cut from the $150 or $125 to $100 when i requested back in Oct

 
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