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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter The Ref
- Start date
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
Wouldn't say that. This is an interesting one. You've been with me long enough to know exactly what I'm talking about. If you believe Bama -7 or more, it's props101, Watson overs, Williams o, Gallman u, bama passing u, some receiving u, maybe scarbro o, etc etc etc. But I really do like Clemson at the moment. I mean even outright. Clemson outright would reverse most of everything I just listed. Pretty conflicted right now. Going to continue to decide on expected outcome and look for things that should win with any outcome.
jamil
Footballguy
Just meant we got a 2 for 1 outta you. Lol. Having Clemson outright just seems so easy don't you think (which I agree with)? Haven't seen any lines but I'm still thinking fading hurts and the pass game, gallman yards, Watson rushing yards (especially if it's around 60) and backing Watson passing with Mike Williams are safe bets no matter the outcome.
I'm already on Clemson +7 and there's no shot they win this on the ground.
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
Here are some early lines for reference. Thoughts?
TOTAL PASSING YARDS BY DESHAUN WATSON (CLM)
Jan 09
40245
OVER
o272½-120
8:00 PM
40246
UNDER
u272½-120
TOTAL COMPLETIONS BY DESHAUN WATSON (CLM)
Jan 09
40247
OVER
o24½-110
8:00 PM
40248
UNDER
u24½-130
TOTAL TD PASSES BY DESHAUN WATSON (CLM)
Jan 09
40249
OVER
o2-135
8:00 PM
40250
UNDER
u2-105
TOTAL INTERCEPTIONS BY DESHAUN WATSON (CLM)
Jan 09
40251
OVER
o½-180
8:00 PM
40252
UNDER
u½+140
TOTAL RUSHING YARDS BY DESHAUN WATSON (CLM)
Jan 09
40253
OVER
o50½-120
8:00 PM
40254
UNDER
u50½-120
TOTAL RUSHING YARDS BY WAYNE GALLMAN (CLM)
Jan 09
40255
OVER
o55½-120
8:00 PM
40256
UNDER
u55½-120
TOTAL RECEPTIONS BY WAYNE GALLMAN (CLM)
Jan 09
40257
OVER
o2-105
8:00 PM
40258
UNDER
u2-135
TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS BY MIKE WILLIAMS (CLM)
Jan 09
40259
OVER
o73½-120
8:00 PM
40260
UNDER
u73½-120
TOTAL RECEPTIONS BY MIKE WILLIAMS (CLM)
Jan 09
40261
OVER
o5½-120
8:00 PM
40262
UNDER
u5½-120
TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS BY RAY-RAY McCLOUD (CLM)
Jan 09
40263
OVER
o34½-120
8:00 PM
40264
UNDER
u34½-120
TOTAL RECEPTIONS BY RAY-RAY McCLOUD (CLM)
Jan 09
40265
OVER
o3-140
8:00 PM
40266
UNDER
u3EV
TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS BY ARTAVIS SCOTT (CLM)
Jan 09
40267
OVER
o41½-120
8:00 PM
40268
UNDER
u41½-120
TOTAL RECEPTIONS BY ARTAVIS SCOTT (CLM)
Jan 09
40269
OVER
o4½-120
8:00 PM
40270
UNDER
u4½-120
TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS BY HUNTER RENFROW (CLM)
Jan 09
40271
OVER
o28½-120
8:00 PM
40272
UNDER
u28½-120
TOTAL RECEPTIONS BY HUNTER RENFROW (CLM)
Jan 09
40273
OVER
o2½-120
8:00 PM
40274
UNDER
u2½-120
TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS BY JORDAN LEGGETT (CLM)
Jan 09
40275
OVER
o43½-120
8:00 PM
40276
UNDER
u43½-120
TOTAL RECEPTIONS BY JORDAN LEGGETT (CLM)
Jan 09
40277
OVER
o3EV
8:00 PM
40278
UNDER
u3-140
TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS BY DEON CAIN (CLM)
Jan 09
40279
OVER
o40½-120
8:00 PM
40280
UNDER
u40½-120
TOTAL RECEPTIONS BY DEON CAIN (CLM)
Jan 09
40281
OVER
o2½-140
8:00 PM
40282
UNDER
u2½EV
TOTAL TACKLES+ASSISTS BY KENDALL JOSEPH (CLM)
Jan 09
40283
OVER
o7-125
8:00 PM
40284
UNDER
u7-115
TOTAL TACKLES+ASSISTS BY BEN BOULWARE (CLM)
Jan 09
40285
OVER
o8½-120
8:00 PM
40286
UNDER
u8½-120
TOTAL PASSING YARDS BY JALEN HURTS (ALA)
Jan 09
40287
OVER
o186½-120
8:00 PM
40288
UNDER
u186½-120
TOTAL COMPLETIONS BY JALEN HURTS (ALA)
Jan 09
40289
OVER
o16EV
8:00 PM
40290
UNDER
u16-140
TOTAL TD PASSES BY JALEN HURTS (ALA)
Jan 09
40291
OVER
o1½-130
8:00 PM
40292
UNDER
u1½-110
TOTAL INTERCEPTIONS BY JALEN HURTS (ALA)
Jan 09
40293
OVER
o½-175
8:00 PM
40294
UNDER
u½+135
TOTAL RUSHING YARDS BY JALEN HURTS (ALA)
Jan 09
40295
OVER
o56½-120
8:00 PM
40296
UNDER
u56½-120
TOTAL RUSHING YARDS BY DAMIEN HARRIS (ALA)
Jan 09
40297
OVER
o63½-120
8:00 PM
40298
UNDER
u63½-120
TOTAL RECEPTIONS BY DAMIEN HARRIS (ALA)
Jan 09
40299
OVER
o1½EV
8:00 PM
40300
UNDER
u1½-140
TOTAL RUSHING YARDS BY BO SCARBROUGH (ALA)
Jan 09
40301
OVER
o78½-120
8:00 PM
40302
UNDER
u78½-120
TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS BY ARDARIUS STEWART (ALA)
Jan 09
40303
OVER
o65½-120
8:00 PM
40304
UNDER
u65½-120
TOTAL RECEPTIONS BY ARDARIUS STEWART (ALA)
Jan 09
40305
OVER
o4-115
8:00 PM
40306
UNDER
u4-125
TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS BY CALVIN RIDLEY (ALA)
Jan 09
40305
OVER
o58½-120
8:00 PM
40306
UNDER
u58½-120
TOTAL RECEPTIONS BY CALVIN RIDLEY (ALA)
Jan 09
40307
OVER
o4½-130
8:00 PM
40308
UNDER
u4½-110
TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS BY GEHRIG DIETER (ALA)
Jan 09
40309
OVER
o22½-120
8:00 PM
40310
UNDER
u22½-120
TOTAL RECEPTIONS BY GEHRIG DIETER (ALA)
Jan 09
40311
OVER
o1½-135
8:00 PM
40312
UNDER
u1½-105
TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS BY O.J. HOWARD (ALA)
Jan 09
40313
OVER
o37½-120
8:00 PM
40314
UNDER
u37½-120
TOTAL RECEPTIONS BY O.J. HOWARD (ALA)
Jan 09
40315
OVER
o3-120
8:00 PM
40316
UNDER
u3-120
TOTAL TACKLES+ASSISTS BY JONATHAN ALLEN (ALA)
Jan 09
40317
OVER
o6-120
8:00 PM
40318
UNDER
u6-120
TOTAL TACKLES+ASSISTS BY REUBEN FOSTER (ALA)
Jan 09
40319
OVER
o7½-120
8:00 PM
40320
UNDER
u7½-120
jamil
Footballguy
jamil
Footballguy
I don't think I've bet a Mike Williams under this year and I don't think I'll do it this game. I've never seen tackles in college... How do you think those will do?
Won't commit to anything till tomorrow when I look at this game at work but like deshaun yards and hurts u comp and u rush yards. The wide receivers not named Mike Williams I can never get right. Have to think deshaun is good for an int tomorrow.
Won't commit to anything till tomorrow when I look at this game at work but like deshaun yards and hurts u comp and u rush yards. The wide receivers not named Mike Williams I can never get right. Have to think deshaun is good for an int tomorrow.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
Dieter is BG (graduate?) transfer iirc, stud there but hasn't done much at bama.... one of those guys that could/would/should go over if Clemson plays with a lead. U like Deshaun yds over I assume? I saw Harris lined somewhere else in the low 50's. Agree Williams isn't an under here. As Silva would say, against the Alabama pass funnel defense. Very familiar with the defenders but little experience with their stats and betting them, will give that a long look too.
jamil
Footballguy
Would have to think it's a 10 tackle night for booty grabber boulware but they don't keep tackle stats on the ESPN box scores so don't know how that would work.
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Neat awards show 
greedygoat
Footballguy
Just want to personally thank @swirvenirvin for bailing me out of a hole yesterday by going 8-2 on his props in the Miami/Pitt game.
culdeus
Footballguy
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
The Busy The Tired
Footballguy
"I'm the man."
swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Andy Reid teams are a combined 19-2 off a bye week with a 3-0 mark in the playoffs, facing a top-10 offense in all three playoff wins.
Divisional round record by seed (since 2003) 1: 7-19 ATS
2: 13-12 ATS
3: 7-6 ATS
4: 7-7 ATS
5: 9-3 ATS
6: 8-4 ATS
Divisional round record by seed (since 2003) 1: 7-19 ATS
2: 13-12 ATS
3: 7-6 ATS
4: 7-7 ATS
5: 9-3 ATS
6: 8-4 ATS
The Ref
Footballguy
lumpy19
Footballguy
total qb sacks o3.5 -160 at bookmaker
I know we have 2 mobile QB's here but this line seems low, bama ranked 3rd in the country in sacks and clemson 5th, these defenses get to the QB.
Washington got to hurts 3x in the semifinal and even that awful OSU team got to watson twice
Team sack http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/466
I know we have 2 mobile QB's here but this line seems low, bama ranked 3rd in the country in sacks and clemson 5th, these defenses get to the QB.
Washington got to hurts 3x in the semifinal and even that awful OSU team got to watson twice
Team sack http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/466
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gussy
Footballguy
Hard time getting a feel for this game. I, like seemingly everybody also have a suspicion Clemson pulls it out. I'm going to play some Alt Line Clemson
spreads, but I've got futures bets from before the season on Bama at 5.5-1 and any ACC team at 4-1 so I won't go crazy there. I'm leaning under, so my
props are slanted that way, with either Clemson winning or the game being really close so no real pass funnel game flow. Here's what I'm on for props, and
I don't give a #### about juice because A)It's the last CFB game of the season and B)You only pay juice if you LOSE #####es. Here goes:
DWatson U274.5 (EV)
DWatson U50.5 (+115)
Gallman U2 (-105)
D. Harris U64.5 (-155)
D. Harris U1.5 (-150)
OJ Howard O35.5 (-175)
Ridley U49.5 (-115)
Dieter U1.5 (+120)
Dieter U22.5 (-130)
Bama TT U28.5 (EV)
Clemson win by 1-6 (+350)
Clemson win by 7-12 (+750)
Clemson win by 13-18 (+1200)
spreads, but I've got futures bets from before the season on Bama at 5.5-1 and any ACC team at 4-1 so I won't go crazy there. I'm leaning under, so my
props are slanted that way, with either Clemson winning or the game being really close so no real pass funnel game flow. Here's what I'm on for props, and
I don't give a #### about juice because A)It's the last CFB game of the season and B)You only pay juice if you LOSE #####es. Here goes:
DWatson U274.5 (EV)
DWatson U50.5 (+115)
Gallman U2 (-105)
D. Harris U64.5 (-155)
D. Harris U1.5 (-150)
OJ Howard O35.5 (-175)
Ridley U49.5 (-115)
Dieter U1.5 (+120)
Dieter U22.5 (-130)
Bama TT U28.5 (EV)
Clemson win by 1-6 (+350)
Clemson win by 7-12 (+750)
Clemson win by 13-18 (+1200)
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swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Three-four times as much money has been bet on Clemson as has been bet on Alabama at multiple Las Vegas books:
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
There's some merit to it. We're hoping Bo gets more carries than Harris, hopefully we see Jacobs today. Give Harris 10 carries and hope for less than 6 ypc is about all we can do.
jamil
Footballguy
TheGooRoo
Footballguy
Not big on Harris. There's enough comparisons out there to show Clemson can get dinged by Harris-like backs, hope he starts slow and isn't the hot hand. With 60 yards, it only takes that 1 run.
lumpy19
Footballguy
hold the phone.....bookmaker has a prop for winning liquid color thrown on the coach, i was not prepared to do gatorade research!!!
I grabbed orange +600 cause clemson
(too bad old thread got nuked, i faintly remember nailing orange last year as well)
google images shows last year was orange https://www.google.com/search?q=nick+saban+gatorade+shower&espv=2&biw=1440&bih=831&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjY-KmX2bXRAhUrw1QKHYecCNAQsAQIIw
Clemson obviously ALL orange
https://www.google.com/search?q=nick+saban+gatorade+shower&espv=2&biw=1440&bih=831&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjY-KmX2bXRAhUrw1QKHYecCNAQsAQIIw#tbm=isch&q=dabo+swinney+gatorade+shower
Hmmm might be confusing this with denver orange gatorade from super bowl.........
OK putting a bet in on red +500 as well...CRIMSON tide......amiright
I grabbed orange +600 cause clemson
(too bad old thread got nuked, i faintly remember nailing orange last year as well)
google images shows last year was orange https://www.google.com/search?q=nick+saban+gatorade+shower&espv=2&biw=1440&bih=831&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjY-KmX2bXRAhUrw1QKHYecCNAQsAQIIw
Clemson obviously ALL orange
https://www.google.com/search?q=nick+saban+gatorade+shower&espv=2&biw=1440&bih=831&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjY-KmX2bXRAhUrw1QKHYecCNAQsAQIIw#tbm=isch&q=dabo+swinney+gatorade+shower
Hmmm might be confusing this with denver orange gatorade from super bowl.........
OK putting a bet in on red +500 as well...CRIMSON tide......amiright
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ChainsawU
Footballguy
Are you serious, Clark. Because during the L16 seasons home faves in the first week of the playoffs have gone 25-22-1 (.532) ATS against an average line of -5.2. Laying more than a field goal they went 22-10 (.688) ATS against an average line of -6.5.
lumpy19
Footballguy
I think I'm done, I realize can't tail most of these but I wanted to get everything down in one place
Clemson +7 -115
o58.5 +220
o3.5 sacks -160
orange liquid +600 and +500
red liquid +500
mike williams o5.5 -125
mike williams u99.5 -165
hurts o165.5 -155
hurts u184.5 -115(tiny)
hurts u17 -135
hurts u16.5 -115
hurts o47.5 rushing -130
ridley u4.5 -140
leggett o2.5/40.5(GOO)
deshaun o23.5 -115
deshaun o40.5 rushing -140
OJ howard u4.5 -125
Gallman u79.5 rushing -180
Clemson +7 -115
o58.5 +220
o3.5 sacks -160
orange liquid +600 and +500
red liquid +500
mike williams o5.5 -125
mike williams u99.5 -165
hurts o165.5 -155
hurts u184.5 -115(tiny)
hurts u17 -135
hurts u16.5 -115
hurts o47.5 rushing -130
ridley u4.5 -140
leggett o2.5/40.5(GOO)
deshaun o23.5 -115
deshaun o40.5 rushing -140
OJ howard u4.5 -125
Gallman u79.5 rushing -180
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swirvenirvin
Footballguy
Im on those above plus Clemson ML and these
hurts u 57.5
ridley u56.5
stewart u 67.5
stewart u 4
harris u 64.5
hurts u 23.5 pa attmp
culdeus
Footballguy
When's last time it's happened? Seems like usually there aren't 4 home favorites to begin with.
culdeus
Footballguy
ChainsawU
Footballguy
I thought about it and kind of knew you were going to ask that. I can't tell you the last time there were four home faves on opening weekend, so you are right - that is pretty rare and a good point. The closest situation I can find is three home faves in both 2011 and 2012 that all covered. But now that I think about it I guess it's about 52 weeks from now that we were going to need that info. Anyway, that's the reason I didn't bet on any of the dogs, plus I was too throwed to use a computer most of the weekend anyway.
The Busy The Tired
Footballguy
I think I'm going to enjoy the game tonight with an ice cold beer and some marijuana... as I hit on some NBA sides.
Maybe I'll get crazy and bet on a GooRoo prop.
Maybe I'll get crazy and bet on a GooRoo prop.
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Peyton Marino
Footballguy
bama or clemson?I think I'm going to enjoy the game tonight with an ice cold beer and some marijuana... as I hit on some NBA sides.
Maybe I'll get crazy and bet on a GooRoo prop.
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
The Busy The Tired
Footballguy
From purely a bankroll management standpoint, I would take Clemson.
I can risk $54.05 to win $100 on Clemson.
I can risk $220 to win $100 on Alabama.
With that being said, I probably won't bet on either. I bet to make money on high confidence plays, I have such a small working knowledge of either team except that Clemson has insane crowd noise at home.
It's on a neutral site.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
why don't you go ahead and post all the rest for him to weigh in on too, just incase.
