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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (7 Viewers)

I messed around with this while out for the Breeders Cup late Oct/early Nov. Hit on a Mariota across the board that closed at 33-1 in a pool of late game QB's. You guys would clean up on this. Definitely worth a look if you're out there. 

I don't know how stuff works. This is referring to the USFANTASY stuff Swirve posted. 

 
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Flames/Devils U5  +120  -Close your nose and forget it's Cory Schneider.

Jets  -140

 
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The Tahitian Facemask said:
I messed around with this while out for the Breeders Cup late Oct/early Nov. Hit on a Mariota across the board that closed at 33-1 in a pool of late game QB's. You guys would clean up on this. Definitely worth a look if you're out there. 

I don't know how stuff works. This is referring to the USFANTASY stuff Swirve posted. 
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yeah cool how the odds move but they have julio at 25-1 for most wr points this week.. This seems more worth a trip than the props itself

 
here are westgate lines this weekend

Seattle/Atlanta:
Wilson 23 completions, 1.5 TD's -130
Baldwin 72.5
Ryan 286.5, 2 TD's -160
Julio 95.5
Sacks 4.5 at -140
 
 
Houston/NE:
Texan completions 19.5
Total Texan TD's/Ints 2
Brady 285.5, 2.5 TD passes +130, Tom yes int at +110
Edelman 72.5
Sacks 3.5 at -110
 
 
Pittsburgh/KC:
Ben 265.5, 1.5 TD's -160
Bell TD yes at -135
Alex Smith 21.5, with total TD's/ints 1.5 at -155
T Hill TD yes even (no -120)
Sacks 4 at +110 for over
 

 
Green Bay/Dallas:
Rodgers 25.5, and 2.5 TD's at +140
Prescott 235.5 and 1.5 TD's at -110
Elliott 103.5
Bryant TD yes +105
Sacks 4 at -130


 
 
swirvenirvin said:
yeah cool how the odds move but they have julio at 25-1 for most wr points this week.. This seems more worth a trip than the props itself
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Yeah not sure why they lined him so low (Sherman?) but that's where the pari-mutuel aspect comes in.  Those odds will change based on how the money comes in.

Also wonder if you can cancel a bet like you can in horse racing? "Oh Julios 5-1 now?  Cancel" 

Edit:  Never mind I see his current odds 23-1.  Looks like a whopping $9 bet on him out of $245.  Not sure if they leave off some zeroes or its just not that popular.   I guess it's only Friday too

 
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tjnc09 said:
lol.  I have a successful and promising career that allowed me to buy my first home at the age of 23 in an expensive area of the country.  That's a nice win in my book. 

Aside from that, I spent a #### load of time helping @swirvenirvin grade his props this year and build some tools to make his capping easier.  I have a limited amount of time in the day, but I am damn happy with the ROI he has provided me over the past few years.  All I care about is my accounts grow.

I've spent the last three years playing, tracking, and refining a CBB model.  It's a tremendous amount of work - capping every side and total, capturing lines, CLV, 1H, 2H, game.  Everything.  I'm smart enough to know I'm not going to be successful punching in plays from a parking lot. 

Cavaliers (28-10) play the Kings (16-22) tomorrow.  You should be able to get a nice line on those Cavs Q1.
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Next you're going to tell me not to bet on the Raptors. But I still think you should start winning something before you give advice.

What do you like tonight?

 
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The Busy The Tired said:
Next you're going to tell me not to bet on the Raptors. But I still think you should start winning something before you give advice.

What do you like tonight?
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I don't bet the NBA except for the first week of the season and the playoffs when the lines are shaded and fading your square plays.

 
Of course it will be tough for me to tail TJ and fade Em when Em doesn't post his square play till 30 seconds after the game started. :(

 
facook said:
LOL.  I meant in general.  I get where you're at.

Kid obviously has little grasp of the history of this thread.
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It's easy to open up those sites.  Thunder and Cavaliers are not surprisingly the two most public plays of the night.  Kings have already moved off of 7 (most important # in the NBA)

 
tjnc09 said:
It's easy to open up those sites.  Thunder and Cavaliers are not surprisingly the two most public plays of the night.  Kings have already moved off of 7 (most important # in the NBA)
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What have you won? You always point to some other website.

WHAT HAVE YOU WON? I can quote dozens of cards over the last year where I've hit 65%+, hit plus money over and over, 5+ plays in a row.

What have you won?

 
tjnc09 said:
It's easy to open up those sites.  Thunder and Cavaliers are not surprisingly the two most public plays of the night.  Kings have already moved off of 7 (most important # in the NBA)
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OK yeah...but that begs the question: Are you fading the public or Em specifically?  Or only fading when they align? (As in this Charlotte 1Q bet.)

 
The Busy The Tired said:
What have you won? You always point to some other website.

WHAT HAVE YOU WON? I can quote dozens of cards over the last year where I've hit 65%+, hit plus money over and over, 5+ plays in a row.

What have you won?
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lol.  Yeah, how many units were won over the college football bowl season simply looking at some website?  I was posting that type of contrarian angle in the original FFAWT thread.

 
facook said:
OK yeah...but that begs the question: Are you fading the public or Em specifically?  Or only fading when they align? (As in this Charlotte 1Q bet.)
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I fade him only when those percentages meet a certain threshold.  He's not going to beat the NBA full game spreads backing the Cavaliers, Warriors, Raptors etc. with that type of public support. 

Like I said, I barely play the NBA except for the first of the season and postseason when book handles are much larger.  I'm far more invested in CBB during this time, but always love a good weeknight contrarian/Em/TBTT/Fox Scream fade.

 
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tjnc09 said:
I fade him only when those percentages meet a certain threshold.  He's not going to beat the NBA full game spreads backing the Cavaliers, Warriors, Raptors etc. with that type of public backing. 

Like I said, I barely play the NBA except for the first of the season and postseason when book handles are much larger.  I'm far more invested in CBB during this time, but always love a good weeknight contrarian/Em/TBTT/Fox Scream fade.
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You should post those fades.  It's fascinating theater if only to watch Em's reactions.  I love that guy.

 
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