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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (8 Viewers)

Hey horse guys (snicker): so if I wanna "bet the trifecta" or "exacta" or whatever other nonsense on a dumb site that gives your social security number out to any juvenile delinquent that wants it like 5d, I would bet each horse top 3 and parlay that, correct?  Or am I dumber than I realized?

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Reversing course and taking canelo ko at even money. Chavez has killed himself making weight.
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I semi-retired with fight doesn't go to decision at -115.  

Chavez looked much better on the scale then expected imo.

Think I'm back to Canelo by decision for most likely outcome.  I really want to see Canelo vs GGG more than any other fight.

 
facook said:
Hey horse guys (snicker): so if I wanna "bet the trifecta" or "exacta" or whatever other nonsense on a dumb site that gives your social security number out to any juvenile delinquent that wants it like 5d, I would bet each horse top 3 and parlay that, correct?  Or am I dumber than I realized?
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On 5d, you are going to get the most value using the 10% rebate race book. And then box the bets for the different combination.

For the big races I like to pick out 5 horses to finish 1-2-3.  That's 60 combinations and for a $60 bet gives you a chance at cashing a 4 figure bet without much risk.

Hth

 
hooter311 said:
On 5d, you are going to get the most value using the 10% rebate race book. And then box the bets for the different combination.

For the big races I like to pick out 5 horses to finish 1-2-3.  That's 60 combinations and for a $60 bet gives you a chance at cashing a 4 figure bet without much risk.

Hth
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Thanks Hoot.  I have no idea what I'm doing (obvs).  Care to share what horses you're looking at here?

 
Lots of very good, informed information in the derby thread.

Favorites have cashed the last 3 years, which has never happened before and there isn't a horse that far outclasses the rest so trust your gut more than anything.

I don't like placing win bets on the favorite in a race like this, way too much dead public money.

I'm going to wait to see how muddy it is before locking anything in, but I'll post when I do.

 
hooter311 said:
Lots of very good, informed information in the derby thread.

Favorites have cashed the last 3 years, which has never happened before and there isn't a horse that far outclasses the rest so trust your gut more than anything.

I don't like placing win bets on the favorite in a race like this, way too much dead public money.

I'm going to wait to see how muddy it is before locking anything in, but I'll post when I do.
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Suns out.  Hopefully dries up

Keep in mind offshores cap exotic odds.  I think it may be like 10K so most cases you should be fine, but may be worth double checking some may have a 500-1 limit on exactas I think 

I like Irish War Cry for the win.  Also like McCracken to win but will only have him in exotics 

Hence offers good value for the win an exotic 

j boys echo my long shot special for the win 

 
re: horse players.

Tvg.com is matching $100 deposits today. Xpressbet usually does too. I've only ever used xpressbet and it's been awhile but i deposited with my debit card and their withdrawals just deposit into you bank acct on request

 
Cowboysfan8 said:
re: horse players.

Tvg.com is matching $100 deposits today. Xpressbet usually does too. I've only ever used xpressbet and it's been awhile but i deposited with my debit card and their withdrawals just deposit into you bank acct on request
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Is it all deposit or only new sign ups?  I can't get TVG anyway.   Spires gave me $20 on $200 reload but I think they offer $100 on new account 

 
Dan Lambskin said:
Is it all deposit or only new sign ups?  I can't get TVG anyway.   Spires gave me $20 on $200 reload but I think they offer $100 on new account 
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https://promos.tvg.com/Fall100/100/

http://www.xpressbet.com/PaulickReport

Tbh I don't play much anymore, I do watch tvg often, Meadowlands is my fave. I'll be playing small on the derby today through my buddy's xpressbet.

I used to like the horses a little too much :unsure:

Anyway, there's a lil free money here for people that want to play the derby and haven't opened accts before there. Hit em hard today boys

 
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hooter311 said:
I semi-retired with fight doesn't go to decision at -115.  

Chavez looked much better on the scale then expected imo.

Think I'm back to Canelo by decision for most likely outcome.  I really want to see Canelo vs GGG more than any other fight.
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First, I think Canelo at -500 is really solid value, and the price is getting better. I think there's some public money driving the price down, and people are believing that Chavez is something he's not. He's not a good enough boxer to win on the cards (especially THESE cards, against an A-side, and the premier PPV attraction in Vegas, wink wink), he doesn't have enough power to stop Canelo. There just isn't any real path to victory here. I think the probability of Canelo victory here is north of 90%. 

I was thinking decision here too, but the couple things that are swaying me are a) the price for a ko being more favorable here than overseas, b) how gaunt JCC has looked, as opposed to how much more of a comfortable weight this is for Canelo. JCC might come into the ring a little heavier, but he's also a bit taller, it's not like he's a tank or has an ideal boxer's body by any stretch. c) I think the crowd is going to be raucous. Obviously. I think around about rounds 4-5, Canelo's going to have him solved, and will be able to start really doing a lot of damage to his body. Around 6-7, I think JCC is going to start clearly losing exchanges, and will start getting hit more with combos, and will be trying to avoid action to some extent. Even with his considerable chin, I think Canelo's going to be able to tee off and start to get him in real trouble. And I would not be surprised if Canelo drops him for good with body work.

JCC, by all accounts, has been much more focused for this fight than he has in the past. But I kind of feel like he's cramming for the big test on the school bus. He has also been given a pretty soft path the whole way, to the point where in 50+ fights his most notable win is Andy Lee. I think he gets him in 10.

 
I would, she's the finest big girl I've ever seen. Everything, hair, makeup, boobs look like they're 21 years old, eyebrows, fingernails. Her boobs are like little pups poking out and her cleavage is on display big time. Hostess at this restaurant.

 
CHU R12 1.00 USD SPR 8,10/2,8,10/2,8,10,14,16,17/2,8,10,14,16,17

CHU R12 10.00 USD EXX 2,8,10

CHU R12 150.00 USD WP 8

 CHU R12 2.00 USD TRX 2,8,10
 
swirvenirvin said:
So who we betting on in this horse thing I don't understand what anyone is posting
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Irish War Cry, McCracken and Hence my top picks

like J Boys Echo as a longshot

quite a few like Gunnevera

Always Dreaming and Classic Empire probably the 2 best horses but i'm betting against them to win (CE may not be in top form, i dont like AD's post)

 
facook said:
@swirvenirvin If someone is all done with 5dimes customer service agents selling their SS#, what other online books are good for football player props?
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they sold your ss?

I know their credit card #### but I don't think you ever give them your ss?

I you haven't gotten kicked out of sportsbook.ag and bovada those are the first ones to try

 
Dan Lambskin said:
here's a few Derby Matchups I like.  at RB and SB (some of them, RB odds better on most I think) and probably elsewhere.  wouldn't go crazy on any of them probably 0.5u-1u.  should at least make things entertaining especially trying to find the full order of finish later on

Thunder Snow -140 over Untrapped

Hence -135 over Thunder Snow

IRAP -125 over Thunder Snow

IRAP -140 over Untrapped

Soneteer -120 over Untrapped

Gunnevera +135 over Always Dreaming - this one is more due to line value.  Always Dreaming very well could win this thing but I think he may run into some trouble and Gunnevera will be coming late and has a good chance to pass him if he doesn't get a good trip

J Boys Echo -120 over Girvin (Girvin has had some foot issues...cant recommend a full on fade of him but I like this matchup)

Hence +120 over Gunnevera - both should come with late runs so i'll take the horse with + odds here

IRAP +100 over Practical Joke  - I think the wrong horse is favored

J Boys Echo +120 over Tapwrit

Patch +145 over Practical Joke - no reason Practical Joke should be that big of a favorite over Patch
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looks like 2-9 here.  gross.  sorry to anyone who tailed.  Only 2 wins were over the horse who just said #### This #### and went home

 
regularguy said:
Why would they have your SS#?  It's been so long since I signed up that maybe I'm forgetting what they required.
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I may be wrong but I deposited right after the election and the id issues started soon after. Honestly I can't remember if they have my SS#.   But the card I used to deposit was compromised first and then things have gone to poop ever since with id issues.

 
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