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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (9 Viewers)

I didn't tail anyone here so only blaming my drunk ###, but I sure effed the pooch deciding to gamble on effing domestic chore animals.

 
For those licking their wounds from the derby, the Warriors are a lock today at -310. Other notable action:

Warriors have won every first quarter and first half.
Q1 - Warriors ML -150 (5-0)
Q1 - Warriors -2, -110 (4-1)
1H - Warriors ML -160 (5-0)
1H - Warriors -2.5 -110 (4-1)
 
Jazz unders have hit 1 out of 9 first half and quarter. George Hill out.



Q1 Jazz O/U 26 (1-4)



1H Jazz O/U 52 (0-5)
 
Warriors Q1 comes with risk but 1H looks solid for over.



Q1 Warriors O/U 27.5 (3-2)



1H Warriors O/U 54 (4-1)






 



 




 
DATA:
 
 

COMBINED
Q1 52, 34, 48, 48, 65
Q2 59, 54, 56, 59, 35
Q3 41, 48, 53, 67, 48
Q4 53, 42, 43, 45, 56


1H 111, 88, 104, 107, 100

WARRIORS
Q1 35, 19, 27, 33, 33
Q2 30, 36, 31, 27, 18
Q3 17, 27, 26, 32, 23
Q4 24, 22, 22, 23, 25

1H 65, 55, 58, 60, 51

JAZZ
Q1 17, 15, 21, 15, 32
Q2 29, 18, 25, 32, 17
Q3 24, 21, 27, 35, 25
Q4 29, 20, 21, 22, 31

1H 46, 33, 46, 47, 49



 
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Good Posting Judge said:
First, I think Canelo at -500 is really solid value, and the price is getting better. I think there's some public money driving the price down, and people are believing that Chavez is something he's not. He's not a good enough boxer to win on the cards (especially THESE cards, against an A-side, and the premier PPV attraction in Vegas, wink wink), he doesn't have enough power to stop Canelo. There just isn't any real path to victory here. I think the probability of Canelo victory here is north of 90%. 

I was thinking decision here too, but the couple things that are swaying me are a) the price for a ko being more favorable here than overseas, b) how gaunt JCC has looked, as opposed to how much more of a comfortable weight this is for Canelo. JCC might come into the ring a little heavier, but he's also a bit taller, it's not like he's a tank or has an ideal boxer's body by any stretch. c) I think the crowd is going to be raucous. Obviously. I think around about rounds 4-5, Canelo's going to have him solved, and will be able to start really doing a lot of damage to his body. Around 6-7, I think JCC is going to start clearly losing exchanges, and will start getting hit more with combos, and will be trying to avoid action to some extent. Even with his considerable chin, I think Canelo's going to be able to tee off and start to get him in real trouble. And I would not be surprised if Canelo drops him for good with body work.

JCC, by all accounts, has been much more focused for this fight than he has in the past. But I kind of feel like he's cramming for the big test on the school bus. He has also been given a pretty soft path the whole way, to the point where in 50+ fights his most notable win is Andy Lee. I think he gets him in 10.
Click to expand...
:scared:  here is hoping..

 
Chase Elliott's #24 car is sponsored by Hooters restaurant today...do we really need to make this harder with the rest of those fancy numbers?

 
I went from +250 to -100 over the last week at RB but still have $100 on Westbrook to hopefully get back to 0. Anyone have a strong play today?

 
NASCAR Talladega

Like the Derby, this is one of few races of the year where there is a chance of literally anything happen.  No 5* plays here

To win:

Harvick +1200

Elliott +1600 

Bowyer +1600

Matchups

Keselowski -135 over Dale Jr

Bowyer +115 over Kenseth

McMurray -110 over Kahne

Stenhouse -120 over Allmendinger

Blaney -125 over Erik Jones

Ty Dillon -120 over Danica Patrick

McDowell -105 over Elliott Sadler

 
Clorox said:
I went from +250 to -100 over the last week at RB but still have $100 on Westbrook to hopefully get back to 0. Anyone have a strong play today?
Click to expand...
Westbrook for MVP?

Have to wait til 6/26 for that bad boy.

I'm on benfica -175 and like the value on the Ducks to finish off the oilers at +110 after xrushing their souls last game.

 
Lester is 21-13 SU and 12-19-3 O/U w/Cubs on four days' rest:
Away: 11-6 SU and 11-4-2 O/U with 42R allowed in 108.2 IP
Home: 10-7 SU and 1-15-1 O/U with 32R allowed in 118 IP

 
Hot damn nice UFC card next weekend.  Hope nobody cancels misses weight gets hurt or some other dumb #### to ruin it.  I think I'm most excited for the co main women's fight.  The rook going all in on anything Max?  

 
lowry u17.5p -110 and u2 3's -145

doubtful he plays but hoping he tries and can't go, betonline is must start so if he doesn't start, game over

 
regularguy said:
@hooter311 @TheGooRoo

Is this more of a play on McMurray or against Kahne?  I was planning on fading both of them actually.
Click to expand...
little of both.  Think McMurray finishes somewhere 8-12 and Kahne in the 15-20 range.

ETA:  As Larson's teammate, McMurray has had some very nice set ups this year and has been running a bit better than he is finishing.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Twins  +163

Good value here. Sale has historically struggled against Twins, especially at Target Field and Santana has been insanely hot.

 
When sportsbook.ag offers to pay out your pending bets, is that payout total payout? I.e. does that number include original wager amount? 

 
Scary race to have about 50 dimes on but here's the bulk of my card.


Ticket#:15917252
May 07 02:00 PM 


Internet / -1


May 07 11:45 AM 



MU


STRAIGHT BET
[7504] B. KESELOWSKI -155 
(J. JOHNSON vrs B. KESELOWSKI)



310 / 200


Ticket#:15917253
May 07 02:00 PM 


Internet / -1


May 07 11:45 AM 



MU


STRAIGHT BET
[7511] K. HARVICK -140 
(K. HARVICK vrs K. LARSON)



280 / 200


Ticket#:15917254
May 07 02:00 PM 


Internet / -1


May 07 11:45 AM 



MU


STRAIGHT BET
[7514] KYLE BUSCH -115 
(K. LARSON vrs KYLE BUSCH)



230 / 200


Ticket#:15917255
May 07 02:00 PM 


Internet / -1


May 07 11:45 AM 



MU


STRAIGHT BET
[7517] C. ELLIOTT -135 
(C. ELLIOTT vrs M. KENSETH)



270 / 200


Ticket#:15917256
May 07 02:00 PM 


Internet / -1


May 07 11:45 AM 



MU


STRAIGHT BET
[7522] R. BLANEY -110 
(C. BOWYER vrs R. BLANEY)



220 / 200


Ticket#:15917257
May 07 02:00 PM 


Internet / -1


May 07 11:45 AM 



MU


STRAIGHT BET
[7530] J. MCMURRAY -115 
(K. KAHNE vrs J. MCMURRAY)



230 / 200


Ticket#:15917258
May 07 02:00 PM 


Internet / -1


May 07 11:45 AM 



MU


STRAIGHT BET
[7533] A. DILLON -135 
(A. DILLON vrs D. SUAREZ)



270 / 200


Ticket#:15917259
May 07 02:00 PM 


Internet / -1


May 07 11:45 AM 



MU


STRAIGHT BET
[7538] T. BAYNE -150 
(R. NEWMAN vrs T. BAYNE)



300 / 200


Ticket#:15917260
May 07 02:00 PM 


Internet / -1


May 07 11:45 AM 



MU


STRAIGHT BET
[7541] R. STENHOUSE -130 
(R. STENHOUSE vrs AJ ALLMENDINGER)



260 / 200


Ticket#:15917261
May 07 02:00 PM 


Internet / -1


May 07 11:45 AM 



MU


STRAIGHT BET
[7545] A. ALMIROLA -115 
(A. ALMIROLA vrs P. MENARD)



230 / 200

 
just been lifting, swimming, and getting my #### ####ed. just sat down I got 12 minutes to cap either Oakland or Cincy. or I'll go with you on something if you have a side or total

 
If an O/U 7 comes up  for -110 or better I'm take that too if you want to ride shotgun in Oakland. I'm not even throwed - No alcohol for two weeks now just lifting, reading (finally finished Guns Germs and Steel), cardio, swimming outside in a heated olympic size pool, and letting girls #### my #### ####.

 
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