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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (5 Viewers)

Did you guys know there are other places on this message board where you try to make a point, and people argue with you?

It's absolutely insane.  Bunch of maniacs!

 
lumpy19 said:
Wait unregulated fake currencies are volatile? :D
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BTC has to get through this "civil war" hump one way or another this summer.  That's really the only reason for the extreme volatility. Once that clears up, it's an elevator to 8-10k imo.

I also think that some possible illegitimate institutional sell off, like some of the scammer darkweb markets, started the quick ride down.  They had been sitting on the wallets for years.

 
UFC Fight Night 111

Pudilova -135

Pudilova inside the distance (.5 unit) +315, if not available u2.5 rounds +185

Another local prospect on short notice with an undefeated record, but fighting cans that have losing records or are small.  Very similar to the first fight last weekend.  

 
Arbitraged some goofy prices for Mayweather KO vs. Mayweather decision. Wagered 6u to win roughly 6u if Mayweather gets the decision, I push if he gets the KO. If he loses :(

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Arbitraged some goofy prices for Mayweather KO vs. Mayweather decision. Wagered 6u to win roughly 6u if Mayweather gets the decision, I push if he gets the KO. If he loses :(
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oof, not sure if that's a ledge I want to stand on when I've underestimated Conor's skillset in big fights so many times.

I think the KO is imminent.  The exchange with Canelo I just retweeted on twitter painted a pretty clear picture for me how the exchanges would play out.  I'm guessing, Canelo's speed is on a whole nother level than McGregors.  

That and I can see Conor lunging to close distance in desperation.  Where there will be a 5 punch combo waiting for him.

 
hooter311 said:
oof, not sure if that's a ledge I want to stand on when I've underestimated Conor's skillset in big fights so many times.

I think the KO is imminent.  The exchange with Canelo I just retweeted on twitter painted a pretty clear picture for me how the exchanges would play out.  I'm guessing, Canelo's speed is on a whole nother level than McGregors.  

That and I can see Conor lunging to close distance in desperation.  Where there will be a 5 punch combo waiting for him.
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I'm under-estimating big time. And even if McGregor's being priced properly by the market (which I don't think he is), there's still value here (albeit more risk) just by virtue of the arbitrage itself. Mayweather is never in a hurry to get anyone out of there, even with a boxing novice he may not take the risk of engaging more than he has to. I mean obvoiusly his MO is to just pile up rounds and get out of there with a decision.

We've also seen fighters get frustrated and just slow the action down to a crawl, because nothing they try works, and every time they try to hit him, they get hit in return. That scenario seems likely to me. Like I said in the other thread, I give him a 2% chance. What about you?

 
I know nothing about boxing or when the guys wrestle around on the mat, but Mayweather will do what he does for every fight and dance around and not get punched.  He will win by decision

 
hooter311 said:
I would have played Pat >=72 for up to -250, the play was definitely sound.  Pat golfed his best round in years.  Variance is being a punk lately.
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Looked like a great situation for Pat to get himself into trouble forcing something while trying to make the cut.  Never really got in trouble.  Leishman is very consistent, had him penciled in for an Ev or better round.  He did his part, Pat just didn't do Pat-like things like he did yesterday.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
I'm under-estimating big time. And even if McGregor's being priced properly by the market (which I don't think he is), there's still value here (albeit more risk) just by virtue of the arbitrage itself. Mayweather is never in a hurry to get anyone out of there, even with a boxing novice he may not take the risk of engaging more than he has to. I mean obvoiusly his MO is to just pile up rounds and get out of there with a decision.

We've also seen fighters get frustrated and just slow the action down to a crawl, because nothing they try works, and every time they try to hit him, they get hit in return. That scenario seems likely to me. Like I said in the other thread, I give him a 2% chance. What about you?
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That is the number I keep coming back to as well.  A 1% chance based on his skill, and another 1% based on a freak event.  There will be some big time smart money on the Floyd at anything better than -1000.  But it will be based on a calculated risk, not because its a lock.

That other thread was a great lesson for me on public perception.  I wasted some breathe there.

 
TheGooRoo said:
Looked like a great situation for Pat to get himself into trouble forcing something while trying to make the cut.  Never really got in trouble.  Leishman is very consistent, had him penciled in for an Ev or better round.  He did his part, Pat just didn't do Pat-like things like he did yesterday.
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This course is playing a lot easier than I expected.  I was way, way, way off on the dozen guys being under par at the end of the weekend, but the course should tighten up a bit more tomorrow.

 
Conor's boxing against Alvarez and his set up of the straight left was technically sound and an absolute work of art from top to bottom.  Eddie was completely helpless to his fate.

Regardless of the contract clause or anything else, Conor has at least one trick in his bag, the first time he twitches his hips Floyd will flich.  I still wonder how Conor/Aldo would have played out if not for the flash ko.  I'll always wonder how many of his eggs Conor had in that basket.  Because he knew his angle exactly and it paid off big time.

 
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The Walt Harris/Cyril Asker fight has me a little perplexed due to the way the line came out.  There were some European books that opened the line at lot closer, and money actually came in on Asker first before Harris ballooning up to worse than -300.  Did they have a valid angle?  Harris is 0-4 past the first round and its still hard to envision Asker's route to victory.  hmmm.

 
hooter311 said:
That is the number I keep coming back to as well.  A 1% chance based on his skill, and another 1% based on a freak event.  There will be some big time smart money on the Floyd at anything better than -1000.  But it will be based on a calculated risk, not because its a lock.

That other thread was a great lesson for me on public perception.  I wasted some breathe there.
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Deadspin has a really good piece up about how there's a very low barrier to entry for this fight. A lot of people are going to have some sort of opinion about it, even if they don't follow boxing or MMA closely. Or at all. The bookies are going to make an absolute killing hoovering up all this McGregor money.

 
De Tomas/Inoue u2.5 rounds -110

Inoue by submission +160

Missing 125 by 6 lbs, doesn't just happen.  Inoue is a legitimate prospect.  You don't want to be nursing an injury or getting tired against a boa constrictor.

 
Jingliang Inside the distance -150

If you don't want to get fancy Jingliang -460/ Inoue -270 is a decent parlay around -155 I believe.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Deadspin has a really good piece up about how there's a very low barrier to entry for this fight. A lot of people are going to have some sort of opinion about it, even if they don't follow boxing or MMA closely. Or at all. The bookies are going to make an absolute killing hoovering up all this McGregor money.
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In a verbal debate on the topic today I was told that Skip Bayless made a good point.....I was too far away by that time to hear what it may have been.

 
Lump,for best results hammer this first one.  Favorite play of the night.

Covington/Kim u2.5 rounds +195

and 

Covington inside the distance +275

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Deadspin has a really good piece up about how there's a very low barrier to entry for this fight. A lot of people are going to have some sort of opinion about it, even if they don't follow boxing or MMA closely. Or at all. The bookies are going to make an absolute killing hoovering up all this McGregor money.
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I can't see fresh meat opening up an account to take Floyd at 200 to win 35.  Every $25 free play in the country will be on McGregor.

 
I'm pretty sure the smaller cage is in play tonight, but I haven't been able to find anywhere to confirm.  One of the articles I did find say that a lot of the time the fighters don't know until they step inside.  Seems kind of important.

 
hooter311 said:
UFC Fight Night 111

Pudilova -135  WINNER

Pudilova inside the distance (.5 unit) +315, if not available u2.5 rounds +185  Loss

Another local prospect on short notice with an undefeated record, but fighting cans that have losing records or are small.  Very similar to the first fight last weekend.  
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Real close to cashing the +315,  it actually jumped up to +375 right before the fight started.

1-1 +.5 units

 
hooter311 said:
De Tomas/Inoue u2.5 rounds -110 Loss

Inoue by submission +160 Loss

Missing 125 by 6 lbs, doesn't just happen.  Inoue is a legitimate prospect.  You don't want to be nursing an injury or getting tired against a boa constrictor.
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1-3    -1.6 units

Those may have been my best losing bets ever placed.  I can't believe those didn't cash. Like 8 RNC attempts and a dislocated shoulder from armbar at the R2 buzzer.

 
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