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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (11 Viewers)

John Bender said:
Anti-overreaction Week 2 time.  

These are just my takes on what the public is thinking - if you are a non-homer and disagree, feel free to chime in.  

Ignore the lines (sounds dumb, but this is how we've always done it here) and just bet against popular public pleb sentiment:

Texans @ Bengals: Public says "Both these teams suck" - No play

Bills @ Panthers: "Bills are ok, Panthers are ok and probably better".  Both teams pooped on terrible teams last week. Would lean Bills if anything but No Play

Bears @ Buccaneers: "Bears played pretty well last week and might be a scrappy/sleeper team".  Small play on Buccaneers (but it's hard because they have no public perception after not playing last week...so half unit?)

Vikings @ Steelers: "Vikings are going to be really good."  "Steelers almost lost to the Browns."  The only problem here is, when doing these in past years, we tried to ignore the very public teams (Steelers, Cowboys, Patriots, Packers).  I still think this qualifies as a strong Steelers bet.

Cardinals @ Colts: "The Colts are the worst team in the NFL." I wish they were playing against a better team though because the Cardinals also looked like ####.  I think Colts for a half unit but I don't like this one.  In fact, it's more a no play than anything else.

Patriots @ Saints: "Patriots Defense Sucks, Saints Defense sucks so Brady is going to shred them."  What to do, what to do.  Personally I'm going to take the Saints, but not because of the anti public perception take.

Browns @ Ravens: How much credit are the Browns getting for last week and being a play away from winning outright?  I don't think they should get any.  However, the Ravens dumped on the Bengals. I wish the Browns had gotten bombed on because they would be an easy play this week.  So I think this is a No play

Eagles @ Chiefs:  Both teams looked fantastic.  No play

Titans @ Jaguars: I feel like the Titans should be a strong play in this line of thinking based on Week 1 results, but I also feel like they're going to be a heavy public favorite as it is with ARob out for the year and the perception that the Raiders are one of the best teams in the AFC and that's who the Titans lost to.  Thread, help steer me in the right direction here but I think Titans is still one of the strongest plays of the week.

Jets @ Raiders: "Jets Suck." "Raiders are one of the best teams in the AFC". This is going to hurt, but  Jets is the strongest play of the week

Dolphins @ Chargers: I don't think there's a definitive enough public take on the Chargers to make a play here vs a team that didn't play week 1.  No play

Cowboys @ Broncos: "Cowboys looked good, especially their defense."  "Broncos almost blew it to the Chargers at home."  Strong play Broncos (also I cheated here, Denver is getting points at home too vs an already public team that had a great Week 1 performance?)

49ers @ Seahawks: "49ers sucks": 49ers (small though here, Seahawks lost too)

Redskins @ Rams: "Rams looked really good. ZOMG Sleeper team!" - Redskins easy

Packers @ Falcons: Both teams won, and Falcons seemed to win more easily than the game score indicated.  No play

Lions @ Giants: Too early to say but the public perception is going to lean heavily that the G Men are in Shambles.  Lions looked pretty good.  This is almost definitely a Lions play but we have until Monday night to decide and watch the status on OBJ

1/2 Unit: Buccaneers, 49ers

1 Unit: Steelers, Titans, Jets, Broncos, Redskins

Jets and Broncos are the 2 strongest IMO
Click to expand...
@Getzlaf15 here ya go GB.

And everyone else.

Haven't checked if we got any good line movement yet, but I'm throwing these in blind any way.  This is literally the one week of the year I ever make any money gambling.

 
John Bender said:
@Getzlaf15 here ya go GB.

And everyone else.

Haven't checked if we got any good line movement yet, but I'm throwing these in blind any way.  This is literally the one week of the year I ever make any money gambling.
Click to expand...
One thing JB, shouldn't the Giants be the play?  Looked like trash week 1, Lions killed the Cards?

 
Ducks took foot off the pedal in the 2nd half last week and it got too close for comfort.  I think they learned their lesson and keep fighting this week, and Wyoming will battle to the end.  2nd half over 30.

 
ChainsawU said:
I'll take the Colts to win straight up on Sunday. Pagano after a loss has gone 23-8 ATS in the subsequent game (9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS as the dog). Might say that was a pretty easy situation with Andrew Luck, but they also did it by only allowing 20 points a game. Sagarin's number makes it a +1 for the home team.
Click to expand...
Pagano 6-5 SU and 5-6 ATS without Luck:
Scoring ≤ 16: 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS
Scoring > 16: 5-0 SU and ATS

He is also 8-5 SU and 9-4 ATS as the non-conference dog (1st NFL since he was hired in 2012).

 
 
TheGooRoo said:
Boss-like.

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http://prntscr.com/gm3s2y
Click to expand...
Remember Carmen on singled out?  Hotness level-samesies

 
Yo, on that Cards fade - they're 4-7 SU and ATS L11 away with an 11-0 O/U. Opponents averaged 28.7 points per game. That's just freakin' nuts.

 
facook said:
I had 3u on ggg and a unit on ggg by decision. Seriously. Never. Ever. Again.
Click to expand...
Yeah this is what kept me down to firing only 1u. Was fairly certain that G would be better (although it's getting very close, and  Canelo deserves a lot of credit for what he did in the ring), but this had to be taken into account. She might've been scoring to the crowd reaction, or just completely out to lunch. She has a reputation for this kind of thing.

 
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