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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (7 Viewers)

L2 seasons Pats 9-0 SU and 7-0-2 ATS on grass. Scored first every time.

First score a NE touchdown +130
Patriots 1st Quarter Over 13½ +380

 
facook said:
Ref can you reiterate you Primetime NFC East system for us?  I think we (and mostly I) have completely bastardized it at this point.
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Any NFC east primetime game tends way more often than not to start slow and finish fast.  Bet the under for game before kickoff and hold the ticket.  Then you follow the game live and once the first TD is scored you bet live over.  It's uncanny how often you will end up with a middle.

 
The Ref said:
Any NFC east primetime game tends way more often than not to start slow and finish fast.  Bet the under for game before kickoff and hold the ticket.  Then you follow the game live and once the first TD is scored you bet live over.  It's uncanny how often you will end up with a middle.
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@Big League Chew  I know this isn't exactly what you asked but it made me think to ask Ref.  To be honest I play just about every NFC East 1h under (at least primetime) and they actually have not hit that much this year.  But I'm not sure about non primetime.

 
mquinnjr said:
Chalk tonight

Pats -10.5 and O48
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I liked the over too.  I played the same angle as last night....Pats have #1 seed game on tap in Pitt next week.  I think they just take care of business tonight.  Played Miami +11.5 earlier this week.  I hate myself for betting against Tommy though, so didn't post cause did not want to sway anyone.

 
facook said:
I liked the over too.  I played the same angle as last night....Pats have #1 seed game on tap in Pitt next week.  I think they just take care of business tonight.  Played Miami +11.5 earlier this week.  I hate myself for betting against Tommy though, so didn't post cause did not want to sway anyone.
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Also it pisses me off Frosty auto fades me and so I didn't wanna give him a free Pats winner.

 
Opposing team scored first six times versus Pats since 2016. Pats went scoreless 1Q in five of them. Already played 2Q o13½ -120, which also came true in five of those six. Will probably grab it again during the commercial.

 
was reading an old thread that had been bumped at a stupid other forum and got it in my head Matt Moore was starting this game <_<

 
facook said:
A while back said you auto fade someone who posts plays here sometimes. I am bad enough it could be me. But I am mostly jk.
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Its not you.  It's a sometimes poster who focuses on my favorite sport to bet with a screen name that is the same as a team nickname of an eastern Big Ten team who recently went through a big ole scandal.  He started posting these long write ups with an air of authority and confidence but I kept noticing small errors or things that didn't jibe with what I had seen so I faded him.  Profited.  Have kept fading him.  Usually works.

 
Frostillicus said:
Its not you.  It's a sometimes poster who focuses on my favorite sport to bet with a screen name that is the same as a team nickname of an eastern Big Ten team who recently went through a big ole scandal.  He started posting these long write ups with an air of authority and confidence but I kept noticing small errors or things that didn't jibe with what I had seen so I faded him.  Profited.  Have kept fading him.  Usually works.
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I’m with ya.

 
Frostillicus said:
Its not you.  It's a sometimes poster who focuses on my favorite sport to bet with a screen name that is the same as a team nickname of an eastern Big Ten team who recently went through a big ole scandal.  He started posting these long write ups with an air of authority and confidence but I kept noticing small errors or things that didn't jibe with what I had seen so I faded him.  Profited.  Have kept fading him.  Usually works.
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OOOOH. Pick me pick me. I know I know! lol

 
I'm quickly learning that system betting doesn't work. Absolutely getting destroyed tonight. This year has sucked. Props got harder and Swirve quit posting.
It's like I hit that Dak OROY and everything has been downhill since then. I'm half thinking I'm jinxed because of my little ##### fight with Em that got him
booted. Maybe I should ask Rud to bring him back? Maybe that's what I have to do to break this spell. FML. Any chance this can stay under 48? HELP!

 
gussy said:
I'm quickly learning that system betting doesn't work. Absolutely getting destroyed tonight. This year has sucked. Props got harder and Swirve quit posting.
It's like I hit that Dak OROY and everything has been downhill since then. I'm half thinking I'm jinxed because of my little ##### fight with Em that got him
booted. Maybe I should ask Rud to bring him back? Maybe that's what I have to do to break this spell. FML. Any chance this can stay under 48? HELP!
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Yes I guess you can stay under 48. Congrats

 
zander_s said:
Yes I guess you can stay under 48. Congrats
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I'll take the garbage win. Absolutely brutal play calling from NE at the end there. Tonight could have been absolutely brutal. Ended up down about 2.5 units with that win. Got killed in the NBA. Absolutely killed. Maybe we do need Em back lol.

 
gussy said:
I'm quickly learning that system betting doesn't work. Absolutely getting destroyed tonight. This year has sucked. Props got harder and Swirve quit posting.
It's like I hit that Dak OROY and everything has been downhill since then. I'm half thinking I'm jinxed because of my little ##### fight with Em that got him
booted. Maybe I should ask Rud to bring him back? Maybe that's what I have to do to break this spell. FML. Any chance this can stay under 48? HELP!
Click to expand...
System betting is a freaking grind.  Let's say a good system has a 15% ROI over time.  There are a few factors in play:

1.  You work under the assumption that that system will remain true over the long run

2.  There will be peaks and valleys.....you have to have the willpower (and bankroll) to stay through the valleys

3.  You literally have to bet every single game to realize the expected ROI.  Every Single One.  You're at dinner and you're wife is giving you a look b/c you're checking your phone trying to place a bet...so you put in down....you miss two games...of course those games won.  Boom, you're thrown off.

I really enjoy playing around with the Bet Labs subscription....but I quickly realized not to mess with anything that has to deal with % of bets on a certain lean...b/c there's no way I can accurately get those in b/c they fluctuate so much.  I'll mess around with it more leading up to bowls....But systems are nuts.

 
Tiger Fan said:
System betting is a freaking grind.  Let's say a good system has a 15% ROI over time.  There are a few factors in play:

1.  You work under the assumption that that system will remain true over the long run

2.  There will be peaks and valleys.....you have to have the willpower (and bankroll) to stay through the valleys

3.  You literally have to bet every single game to realize the expected ROI.  Every Single One.  You're at dinner and you're wife is giving you a look b/c you're checking your phone trying to place a bet...so you put in down....you miss two games...of course those games won.  Boom, you're thrown off.

I really enjoy playing around with the Bet Labs subscription....but I quickly realized not to mess with anything that has to deal with % of bets on a certain lean...b/c there's no way I can accurately get those in b/c they fluctuate so much.  I'll mess around with it more leading up to bowls....But systems are nuts.
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Think I mentioned this to you before and in the thread.   Cant never get the systems with them.   A system play ends up being a play 2 minutes before the game starts, and plays you thought were a system 3 minutes before end up not being a system, if you use any public money or total amount of bets, even over unders or line changes last second screw stuff up

 
swirvenirvin said:
Think I mentioned this to you before and in the thread.   Cant never get the systems with them.   A system play ends up being a play 2 minutes before the game starts, and plays you thought were a system 3 minutes before end up not being a system, if you use any public money or total amount of bets, even over unders or line changes last second screw stuff up
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Yeah, the public money or total amount of bets is the biggest thing.  The totals or ATS changes are a much smaller impact.  When I get home I can share more

 
Dan Lambskin said:
Anything to gamble on tonight? 
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NHL:

Kings (-120)
Kings/NJ U5.5 (-135)
Sens/Sabes U5.5 (-140)
Sens (-110)
Vegas -1/2 (+110)

been kind of hit and miss, but if u r looking for some degen action...........

 
CBB

St. Louis (+145)

Kind of lean Albany and Columbia FH tonight as well, but I'm still treading lightly in college hoops

 
Maybe one.of my favorite losses, played Harris  over Barton in nba... just checked and saw Barton only had 4pts :excited: , check Harris....2 pts, 0/7 :lmao: .

 
Tiger Fan said:
Yeah, the public money or total amount of bets is the biggest thing.  The totals or ATS changes are a much smaller impact.  When I get home I can share more
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Here's a nice one that doesn't get effected by public $ or line movement.....IIRC, there's been a "thread rule" to bet the overs on December Bowl games and then bet the unders in January games.  Thought being that the # of bowls saturated the quality of the teams and a lot of bad teams play, leading to sloppier defense, etc.  So i tested it.  

Blatantly playing all overs in December bowls yields a -4.8% ROI.  Not Good, but that's ok....As clearly the "better teams" play closer to the end of December, I looked to see it it would let me filter for certain dates in December, but it wouldn't, so I had to think of another way.  I decided to add the filter for teams that have winning %s less than 65% (basically a 7-4 team or worse) and that came out with a 16.3% ROI, which is obviously much better...and seems to make sense.  

This yields about 13 plays for this bowl season, of which you can expect about 8 of those to win.  Now, as explained above, if you believe all the #s will hold true, then you need to play them all in order to get the 8 projected wins....so it's easy to lose $ in the short term due to variance and whatnot.

I tried to think of some other filters to add that wouldn't just be noise in the system, but nothing came to mind.

ETA: There was no data supporting the unders in January Theory

 
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swirvenirvin said:
Under the knife tomorrow to get the back fixed finally.  Wish me luck!
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Good luck, Swirve. It's been exactly an entire year since I hurt mine and still do the yoga cobra pose for 15 minutes every morning to compress my vertebrae so it doesn't come back. I never thought it'd get better. Thought I was injured for life. But it finally got better. I still watch TV in that cobra pose as often as I can. I truly believe that's what made me get better, that cobra pose.

 
#CamelliaBowl

Head coaches Rick Stockstill and Blake Anderson are a combined 2-7 SU and ATS in bowl games (avg line +3) with the games decided by an average margin of 16±3 points per game. The spread never came into play in any of their bowl games.

 
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