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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (10 Viewers)

We did the pre- and post-Christmas bowl thing two seasons ago. Or else we "noticed" it two seasons ago. And then the next season it completely flipped around to be the opposite. That's what I remember.

 
facook said:
Seems funky huh?  I heard our favorite corpulent awkward tout Ralph Michaels on a podcast say he generally leans dog and over on pre-Christmas bowls and betting those blindly is over 50% historically. Who tf knows?  I'm just gonna fade Joe the pub for the first day and see how it goes.
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i do believe in the past before xmas is over when ####ty team play and under after when better teams play

wonder if @Tiger Fan can check on that

 
ChainsawU said:
Troy gives up 17.5 points per game (11th NCAA). The total in the New Orleans Bowl is 62.
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Other side of the trade for me.  Troy hasn't played a team with an offense this good the entire season.  Jeffery Wilson is/was a great RB but Nic Smith is a decent RB in his own right.

 
swirvenirvin said:
Odds and Ends

Underdogs are 66-54-1 ATS in bowls over the last three years.

The over is 64-55-2 in bowls over the last three years.

Average points scored during the regular season over the last three seasons: 58.8.

Average points scored in bowls over the last three seasons: 60.8.

Average over/under total in bowls over the last three seasons: 57.8.

Alabama and Oklahoma State each went 1-6 ATS vs. bowl teams.

Florida State went 0-7-1 ATS vs. bowl teams.

Fresno State went 6-0 ATS vs. bowl teams.

Fresno State went 6-0 ATS as an underdog. The Bulldogs are 2.5-point underdogs to Houston in the Hawai'i Bowl on Dec. 24.

The team that improved the most in South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews' power ratings was Mississippi State.

Iowa State has the best ATS record of any bowl team at 10-2.

USC, Kentucky and Western Kentucky are tied for the worst ATS record among bowl teams at 3-9.

Western Kentucky has failed to cover the spread by an average margin of 6.8 points per game, the worst such mark of any bowl team.

LSU has covered the spread in six straight games, the longest such streak in the nation.

Oklahoma State, Memphis and Utah State have each gone over the total this year in 75 percent of their games, the best "over" mark of any bowl teams.

Miami, Fla. and Wyoming both saw 10 of their 12 games staying under the total, the best "under" mark of any bowl teams.

UCF's game went over the total by an average margin of 10.2 points per game, the best such mark of any bowl team.

Wyoming's games stayed under the total by 10.2 points per game, the best such mark of any bowl team.

South Florida averages 85.4 plays per game, the most of any bowl team.

Stanford averages 61.3 plays per game, the fewest of any bowl team.

Oklahoma averages 8.3 yards per play, the most of any bowl team.

Wyoming averages 4.4 yards per play, the fewest of any bowl team.

Army allows opponents 58.4 plays per game, the fewest of any bowl team.

Wake Forest allows opponents 85.7 plays per game, the most of any bowl team.

Alabama and Wisconsin each allow opponents 4.0 yards per play, the fewest among all bowl teams.

SMU allows opponents 6.7 yards per play, the most of any bowl team.

Appalachian State went 2-10 ATS in the first-half of games this season, the worst mark of any bowl team. The Mountaineers are 8-point underdogs to Toledo in the Dollar General Bowl on Dec. 23.

Michigan State went 8-3-1 ATS in the first-half of games this season, the best mark of any bowl team.
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I'll be on Fresno Christmas Eve for sure.

 
ChainsawU said:
new mexico bowl

Colorado State head coach Mike Bobo is 0-2 SU in bowl games against lines of -4½ and -15. He doesn't even win, much less cover.

Meanwhile, Marshall head coach Doc Holliday is 4-0 SU and ATS in bowl games, and during the L20 years Marshall has gone 10-1 SU and ATS in bowls.

Marshall +5½ -105
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Now this is something we can agree on

 
Got a pretty full day tomorrow.   Highlights include going to the new Star Wars and then drinking heavily and watching football 

I think the Chargers get it done FWIW

 
Dan Lambskin said:
Got a pretty full day tomorrow.   Highlights include going to the new Star Wars and then drinking heavily and watching football 

I think the Chargers get it done FWIW
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omg i'm going to star wars tomorrow and then drink heavily and watch football.  Also opening presents and eating prime rib.  So my day is bigger than yours.  Face.

 
Frostillicus said:
omg i'm going to star wars tomorrow and then drink heavily and watch football.  Also opening presents and eating prime rib.  So my day is bigger than yours.  Face.
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:hifive:

Although we're not weirdos so no presents tomorrow (unless you're Jewish then not weird) and I think we'll be having leftover pizza and some chicken wings (not leftover) 

 
Dan Lambskin said:
:hifive:

Although we're not weirdos so no presents tomorrow (unless you're Jewish then not weird) and I think we'll be having leftover pizza and some chicken wings (not leftover) 
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We have too much #### to do so we have this one thing early.  It works well because the kids will shut up for a while.

 
The Chiefs have allowed 20 or fewer points in 11 straight games at Arrowhead, the longest such streak at home since the Panthers over the 2012-2014 seasons.

 
Nine of Caldwell's 14 division wins have been by 6 points or less. He is also career 15-6 SU in the second division matchup of the season (13-0 SU as the favorite, winning L6 as the favorite by 4±1 points per game). I'd take Bears +6½ somehow and also DET wins by 1-6 scoring margin prop, but the only thing I bought so far today is KC and Thundering Herd. I'd also do Bears/Lions u44½ and definitely u47 if I saw it live or whatever.

 
ChainsawU said:
Nine of Caldwell's 14 division wins have been by 6 points or less. He is also career 15-6 SU in the second division matchup of the season (13-0 SU as the favorite, winning L6 as the favorite by 4±1 points per game). I'd take Bears +6½ somehow and also DET wins by 1-6 scoring margin prop, but the only thing I bought so far today is KC and Thundering Herd. I'd also do Bears/Lions u44½ and definitely u47 if I saw it live or whatever.
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Yeah I like that too. Also played under 21.5 first half.

 
Huskers +12

Nebraska 4-1 ATS at home, this is not a good matchup for Kansas, they struggle with length, we have length if we can keep it out of
foul trouble. The Vault is sold out and will absolutely be rocking, and there is a womans volleyball viewing party on the big screen right
after the game. Only thing that gives me pause is Kansas coming in angry after the ASU game. I don't think Kansas is as good as they've
been, this is the type of game that Nebraska wins at the Vault. I'll be on the ML as well, right now I see +485, I was hoping for better. I'll
wait and see if it goes up.

 
Tiger Fan said:
Here's a nice one that doesn't get effected by public $ or line movement.....IIRC, there's been a "thread rule" to bet the overs on December Bowl games and then bet the unders in January games.  Thought being that the # of bowls saturated the quality of the teams and a lot of bad teams play, leading to sloppier defense, etc.  So i tested it.  

Blatantly playing all overs in December bowls yields a -4.8% ROI.  Not Good, but that's ok....As clearly the "better teams" play closer to the end of December, I looked to see it it would let me filter for certain dates in December, but it wouldn't, so I had to think of another way.  I decided to add the filter for teams that have winning %s less than 65% (basically a 7-4 team or worse) and that came out with a 16.3% ROI, which is obviously much better...and seems to make sense.  

This yields about 13 plays for this bowl season, of which you can expect about 8 of those to win.  Now, as explained above, if you believe all the #s will hold true, then you need to play them all in order to get the 8 projected wins....so it's easy to lose $ in the short term due to variance and whatnot.

I tried to think of some other filters to add that wouldn't just be noise in the system, but nothing came to mind.

ETA: There was no data supporting the unders in January Theory
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Overs on WKU/GSU, CSU/Marshall, Ark St/MTSU today

 
I was thinking more on that all unders on inter division NFL games weeks 9-17 totaled at 43 or less and was thinking I wonder
if it would be more applicable to all teams facing each other a second time as a parameter. I know there was a game last wee
or the week before that was the first meeting between teams despite it being so late in the season. Any of you guys with the
SQL searches or whatever want to run that and see what it comes up with? I would assume that would be pretty easy to figure.

 
Football - Proposition

2017-2018 Bowl Season - Largest Margin Of Victory in a Bowl Game

Under 42.5 -130

Football - Proposition

2017-2018 Bowl Season - Most Points Scored by 1 Team in a Bowl Game

Under 62.5 -145 Dec 16, 2017 12:00 PM

Football - Proposition

2017-2018 Bowl Season - Will there be Double Overtime in a Bowl Game?

No -160 Dec 16, 2017 12:00 PM

 
facook said:
Yeah I like that too. Also played under 21.5 first half.
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On Caldwell in his second division matchup I saw a lot of the games ending in margins of 43/44, a few 47's, and a couple 58's. The 44 felt real strong and the 47 felt safe. But the 43 felt too low.

 
gussy said:
I was thinking more on that all unders on inter division NFL games weeks 9-17 totaled at 43 or less and was thinking I wonder
if it would be more applicable to all teams facing each other a second time as a parameter. I know there was a game last wee
or the week before that was the first meeting between teams despite it being so late in the season. Any of you guys with the
SQL searches or whatever want to run that and see what it comes up with? I would assume that would be pretty easy to figure.
Click to expand...


Couldn't exactly do it, but did a litter workaround...think there's some merit with your logic:

All interdivision unders (no filter for total #) b/w games 9-16 hit at 7.2% ROI

Added filter for December/January: 10% ROI 

 
Kendall Wrightunder3.5receptions-105bol

Kendall Wrightunder42.5receiving-110BM

Dontell Inmanover2.5receptions-140BM

Eric Ebronunder45.5reeceiving-1205D

Theo Riddickun 4.5receptions-140MB

Theo Riddick un 66.5r+r-115MB

Tarik Cohen u 3.5receptions-140MB

Tarik Cohen u 48.5r+r-115MB

Golden Tateunder68.5receiving-115 good anything under 60

 
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