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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (16 Viewers)

Tiger Fan said:
If you bet the ML against the teams on their first game back, that went 36-25 for a 21.6% ROI last year.  I need to mess with the queries to get look at the 2nd game back.
Click to expand...
There's no "bye week" query, so I had to filter it under "team has 1 game in the last 6 days in Jan/Feb" and it came up a loser last year 52-57-0.  

I have the filter set to remind me about betting against the team the first game back

 
Tiger Fan said:
There's no "bye week" query, so I had to filter it under "team has 1 game in the last 6 days in Jan/Feb" and it came up a loser last year 52-57-0.  

I have the filter set to remind me about betting against the team the first game back
Click to expand...
Unfortunately, a lot of the teams play each other in the first game after the bye.  Here are the 3 picks for teams that don't go against each other over the next few days

1/12/2018Play on Edmonton Oilers

1/13/2018Play on Edmonton Oilers

1/13/2018Play on Arizona Coyotes

 
Opposing teams 7-13 SU and 8-11-1 ATS with 14-6 O/Y versus Big Ben/Steelers.
Scoring less than 29: 1-13 SU and 3-11 ATS
Scoring more than 16: 13-2 O/U

 
Since 2001 opposing teams have gone 18-6 O/U postseason versus Steelers.
In their first playoff game of the season: 6-5 O/U
In their second (or greater) playoff game of the season: 12-1 O/U sdql

Jaguars/Steelers o41 -110

 
lumpy19 said:
Mybookie sent an email with a 220% casino bonus, max $2200 bonus.  If this is a sticky it's nothing to get excited about, if it's not there's about $1300 in EV(220k rollover@$100/bet).  Expires 1/15, hoping I'll have it cleared by then and can report back if it's sticky or not.  Code is LOOT220
Click to expand...
well no idea if it's sticky, BUSTED, I only made it thru 10% of rollover, that was a rough one

 
What's the consensus on reporting coinbase withdrawals to your bank for taxes?

I don't have exact figures but probably less than 5K in 2017.  I know I should report it, but as far as I know they arent reporting anything to Uncle Sam yet, so wondering if I should not mention it  :whistle:

 
Dan Lambskin said:
What's the consensus on reporting coinbase withdrawals to your bank for taxes?

I don't have exact figures but probably less than 5K in 2017.  I know I should report it, but as far as I know they arent reporting anything to Uncle Sam yet, so wondering if I should not mention it  :whistle:
Click to expand...
They are looking at it now

 
Dan Lambskin said:
What's the consensus on reporting coinbase withdrawals to your bank for taxes?

I don't have exact figures but probably less than 5K in 2017.  I know I should report it, but as far as I know they arent reporting anything to Uncle Sam yet, so wondering if I should not mention it  :whistle:
Click to expand...
On Wednesday, a federal judge in San Francisco ruled that Coinbase must supply the IRS with identifying information on users who had more than $20,000 in annual transactions on its platform between 2013 and 2015

 
ArbyMelt said:
On Wednesday, a federal judge in San Francisco ruled that Coinbase must supply the IRS with identifying information on users who had more than $20,000 in annual transactions on its platform between 2013 and 2015
Click to expand...
This is why I'm nervous about all crypto.  The utility started out as an untraceable currency that you could use on the "dark web" and avoid  taxes in the process.  Now the story is "it's going to be the new MasterCard".

I mean I guess that can work but the original use seems to be degrading every day.

 
ArbyMelt said:
On Wednesday, a federal judge in San Francisco ruled that Coinbase must supply the IRS with identifying information on users who had more than $20,000 in annual transactions on its platform between 2013 and 2015
Click to expand...
That doesn't fit with me but guess I'll report it to be safe.

 
ArbyMelt said:
On Wednesday, a federal judge in San Francisco ruled that Coinbase must supply the IRS with identifying information on users who had more than $20,000 in annual transactions on its platform between 2013 and 2015
Click to expand...
Uh oh

ETA: wait I wasn't using coinbase in 2015  :suds:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Since 1990, these are the only Divisional Round games that have featured a home underdog:

Jan. 14, 2012: 49ers +3.5 W, 36-32 vs. NO
Jan. 5, 1997: Panthers +3 W, 26-17 vs. DAL
Jan. 10, 1993: Dolphins +1 W, 31-0 vs. SD
Jan. 5, 1992: Lions +1, W, 38-6 vs. DAL

 
swirvenirvin said:
Since 1990, these are the only Divisional Round games that have featured a home underdog:

Jan. 14, 2012: 49ers +3.5 W, 36-32 vs. NO
Jan. 5, 1997: Panthers +3 W, 26-17 vs. DAL
Jan. 10, 1993: Dolphins +1 W, 31-0 vs. SD
Jan. 5, 1992: Lions +1, W, 38-6 vs. DAL
Click to expand...
Lions only playoff win in the last 60 years

 
touched on this in another post but

 Since 2003, the over is 26-8 (76.5%) in postseason games played inside of a closed dome. The over is also 76-53-2 in Drew Brees’ career when he’s playing indoors. That includes 5-0 in the playoffs, with the total going over by 6.5 PPG.

 
 Since 2003, teams that allow less than 21 PPG are 24-14 ATS (63.2%) in the playoffs when facing teams that score 28 PPG or more. The defensive teams have covered five of their past six in this spot.

 
swirvenirvin said:
touched on this in another post but

 Since 2003, the over is 26-8 (76.5%) in postseason games played inside of a closed dome. The over is also 76-53-2 in Drew Brees’ career when he’s playing indoors. That includes 5-0 in the playoffs, with the total going over by 6.5 PPG.
Click to expand...
Is Minny gonna be closed or open?

 
Pucks:

Caps/Canes OT-Y (+235)
Oil (-135)

Oil is the system pay with the Yotes off of their bye week. Nothing makes me want to play the Oilers AT ALL right now. Purely a system play.

Other leans:

Nucks/Jackets U5.5 (-120)
Jackets -1/2 (-105)
Flames (+105)
Flames PL (+250)
Jets/Hawks O6 (-110)
Oil/Yotes U5.5 (-110)
 

 
swirvenirvin said:
 Since 2003, teams that allow less than 21 PPG are 24-14 ATS (63.2%) in the playoffs when facing teams that score 28 PPG or more. The defensive teams have covered five of their past six in this spot.
Click to expand...
New England, Philly, New Orleans average 28 or more PPG. 

Atlanta and Minnesota allow less than 21 PPG. 

The Atlanta stat conflicts with the home dog angle, but Minnesota looks great! 

 
UIC +1 1/2
Canisius -4

Nebraska +8/+310

This is kind of a weird play on NU, not necessarily advocating a tail. If Josh Reaves does not play for Penn St I'm guessing his line drops to 4-5
and then you have some value. If Reaves doesn't play I think NU has a very real shot of winning, and I think they have a decent shot regardless.
Little concerned about Tsiamanga not being there and contemplating transferring and how that will affect the kids, I'm just hitting this based on value
that is there right now and the potential for a lot of value.

 
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