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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (6 Viewers)

IMAX 3D said:
I kinda like these Series bets

I had grabbed Tigers for today FWIW
Click to expand...
They're kind of cool since you can hedge against them (or double up). But if I felt a team was good for multiple games, I'd be parlaying that ish: day over day.

I don't know how you handicap full games though. It's extra work. You have to cap F5 anyway and the stats for starters are much more accessible than the closers.

I can't fathom capping closing pitching, let alone closing pitching over 3-5 games. It requires more faith than say, predicting how many 3 pointers teams will score combined.

 
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There are two ways where you oddsmakers can screw up series odds: One, just capping games 2 and 3 blind, before the lines for each have come out. They don't have the luxury of being able to just look at a fairly decently set opening line, as well as wherever the sharps have pushed it.

Two, I think the ways you calculate the probability of the series winner is probably being done incorrectly. To wit: Team A has exactly a 66.6% chance of winning games 1, 2, and 3. What are their odds of winning that series?

 
I like series betting if you can find a shop that doesn't juice it higher than single games.

GPJ, I hope to god the answer is 20/27 they win the series or I have been doing a lot of bad things lol

For better or worse, I do it like this odds to win series = 1- (1/3 X 1/3 X 1/3) - (1/3 X 1/3 X 2/3) - (1/3 X 2/3 X 1/3) - (2/3 X 1/3 X 1/3)

Essentially it's always easier to me to do 1 - the scenerios where you lose.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
There are two ways where you oddsmakers can screw up series odds: One, just capping games 2 and 3 blind, before the lines for each have come out. They don't have the luxury of being able to just look at a fairly decently set opening line, as well as wherever the sharps have pushed it.

Two, I think the ways you calculate the probability of the series winner is probably being done incorrectly. To wit: Team A has exactly a 66.6% chance of winning games 1, 2, and 3. What are their odds of winning that series?
Click to expand...
Winning series = 2+ games

.66 x .66 = 43.56% winning series

.66 x .66 x .66 = 28.74% sweeping series

.33 x .33 = 10.89% of losing series

.33 x .33 x .33 = 3.59% of getting swept

43.56 + 28.74 + 10.89 + 3.59 = 86.69%

The missing 13% represent the 1-2 / 2-1 outcomes. We'd have to remove the "win series" generalization to get an exact 100% distribution.

IE: .66 x .66 x .33 = 14.37%

.33 x .33 x .66 = 7.18%
 
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Stuart Ullman said:
Winning series = 2+ games

.66 x .66 = 43.56% winning series

.66 x .66 x .66 = 28.74% sweeping series

.33 x .33 = 10.89% of losing series

.33 x .33 x .33 = 3.59% of getting swept

43.56 + 28.74 + 10.89 + 3.59 = 86.69%

The missing 13% represent the 1-2 / 2-1 outcomes. We'd have to remove the "win series" generalization to get an exact 100% distribution.

IE: .66 x .66 x .33 = 14.37%

.33 x .33 x .66 = 7.18%
Click to expand...
If sweeping is 28.74%, and getting swept is 3.59%, then the probability of a 1-2/2-1 result is ~68%.

Three ways to get there: win-win-doesn't matter, win-lose-win, lose-win-win.

SEATTLE +160 (series) btw.

 
That's funny, I thought you guys were the best gamblers in the world! Figured someone could cough up one early MLB play.

I guess I'll pull the wagon myself. Fade or Follow.

F5 - Cardinals / Royals U4.5, -120

 
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Kansas City Royals (+150)

San Diego Padres Team Total o2 (-105) - 1st Five

Cleveland Cavaliers +1 (-110)

Oakland Athletics Team Total o2 (-125) - 1st Five

Did not play any of these big. GLTA AB

 
F5 - Padres ML, +135

Erick Fedde started 3 games for the Nationals last year. Did not win a single start and had an ERA of 9.39.

Giving up 7, 4, and 5 earned runs over 15.1 innings.

 
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Bucs (-113)
Angels (-114)
Jays F5 TT U2 (-110)
Marlins (+210)
BoSox (-130)
M's (+107)
Rox (+160)
Dodgers F5 TT U2 (-120)

 
College Football Games JUST released in Vegas:

Alabama vs 

-20 vs Mississippi

-21 vs Texas A&M

-10 vs LSU

-7 vs Auburn

Auburn vs

-23 vs Arkansas

+3 vs Georgia

+7 vs Alabama

Michigan vs

-3 vs Wisconsin

+1 vs Michigan State (what?)

-3.5 vs Penn State

+9 vs Ohio State

Ohio State vs

-12 vs TCU

-1.5 vs Penn State

-6 vs Michigan State

-9 vs Michigan

Complete List from South Point

 
Rockets 10-4 SU playoffs:
• leading at halftime: 9-0 SU
• tied or trailing at half: 1-4 SU

• opponent only one day of rest: 8-0 SU
• opponent more than one day rest: 2-4 SU

• lose turnover battle: 0-3 SU
• win turnover battle: 10-1 SU

 
Angels getting +200 seems like an AWFUL lot of value tonight. 16-5 on the road, Heaney has pitche
well all year. I know Severino, I know, Yankees vs. lefties, etc. Still seems like a lot of value there.............

 
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