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Read the book and didnt dig it. I admire ol girl's hustle, but not a lot of deep poker insight, she just kind of relays that there were a lot of famous people, and whether they won or lost.
Props are easier to beat than big markets, but it's not as easy as rolling out of bed and just throwing darts. You're dealing with higher juice, you're also dealing with competition to get good lines before they're hit and they go away. And you're also dealing with the very likely possibility that whatever system you're using sucks and isn't good enough. They're not designed to lose, they just aren't as sharply lined as sides/totals. But still, the bookmakers sharpen up and improve their props.
I've done fairly well with SOG props over the years and I can't pick a NHL game to save my life.
Right, some people can beat props but can't take the next step and beat big markets consistently over a long period of time, myself included. There are probably more people who can just beat props than people who can beat both. I just don't think it's possible to beat sides and not props. If you're awesome, and getting tons of money down, maybe you don't bother with props, but that's a separate matter.
The Tigers fly balls flew out of the park and the Reds died on the warning track.
F5 - Seattle ML, +170
I don't know what FIP is but I believe Lugo is much closer to being the 4.71 ERA pitcher he was last year than the 2.49 he's sporting now.
Bettis best F5 pitcher in MLB this year (along with Severino tomorrow, FYI) so I'da been with you. Tough start tho.
There is xFIP too. I'm no expert either but I think it's more or less an indicator of how well a pitcher has pitched when taking into account how well his defense has performed behind him. I think LOB% is in that equation somewhere too. It's a good thing to look at when you're talking about trying to predict regression. Unless you're talking about Hector Santiago who always had a blowed up FIP and LOB percentage, to which he never regressed and it was frustrating how stupid I felt trying to predict like two seasons ago. Props for saying you didn't know what something was. Sign of maturity I love it.
Yeah Fielding Independant Pitching, the xFIP normalizes HR or something like that
Hey, I'll take it, lol. I guess it's an interesting statistic such as run support. It's more or less telling you how lucky a guy is getting and if he's due to get, less lucky?
The other night I was trying to turn over and my cpap hose got kind of caught, and I lunged and punched my wife in the head while she slept. It was SO hot. So I can totes relate.
