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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (6 Viewers)

eoMMan said:
When I was in AC last week, I booked a bunch of week 1 plays including:

Chicago -3

Chicago/GB UNDER 46

I see Rodgers struggling tonight and for the Bears to get Montgomery heavily involved.  Lots of talk of easing back on Tarik Cohen.    
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I will be very interested to see how much the Bears miss Fangio as DC.  I think it is a significant loss.

 
facook said:
I will be very interested to see how much the Bears miss Fangio as DC.  I think it is a significant loss.
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Agree.  Defensive stats rarely hold up year over year anyway, but when we also take out an elite DC, I'd say the Bears D will be way overvalued this season based on last season. 

I don't really like the Packers either though so I'm not sure what I'm doing tonight. 

 
The Ref said:
Phil Steele has been out for a week now and I made some first bets on week 1 Utah -6 FSU -4 OK St -16.5 UCLA +4
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https://philsteele.com/2019/08/07/2019-college-football-game-of-the-year-from-westgate-casino/

What's up brother, how about week 2? Your boy posted the Westgate lines a month ago and LSU/Texas was a pick'em. Now they got the Longhorns catching damn near 7..?

How in the world is Tom Herman so successful as an underdog? Well, I asked him. In the underdog role as a head coach, Herman is a flat-out wizard. At Houston and Texas, Herman’s teams have won 10 of 15 games when they are the underdog and – more importantly (to some) – is a remarkable 13-2 against the spread as an underdog. Add in his days as an offensive coordinator at Ohio State and Iowa State and Herman’s teams are 24-2 – yes, 24-2 – as an underdog against the spread in his last 26 games as an underdog. Before last season, I asked him how he attributed his success when his team is in the underdog role (see the video above). Basically, Herman said his teams want it more. “Whenever you can play more physical, when you can play harder, when you can play with a greater purpose than your opponent – which, for us, is the genuine love of the guy next to you and your coaches – then you can overcome a lot of talent discrepancies,” Herman told me. “You can overcome maybe some strategic deficiencies. We live by the adage that culture eats strategy for lunch.” Herman also added, “Even when you are faced with significant talent discrepancies, you can at least stay in every ball game by playing harder and more physical than the team across from you.” At Houston, Herman’s teams may have encountered some “talent discrepancies,” but that likely won’t be the case at Texas. Since arriving in Austin last season, Herman’s Longhorns have been an underdog 10 times. They have won five of those games and covered the spread eight out of 10 times.

link
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This is going to be freakin' epic.

 
ChainsawU said:
There was a preseason guessing game in 2017 as to whether or not Luck was going to play in week one. It was fairly obvious that he was going to miss and a lot of us were holding Rams +3.5 as a result. Line closed Rams -4, Luck missed the game (and entire 2017 season) and Rams won 46-9. Boom NFL Trivia.
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2 Team Teaser (ties win) +950

  1. Longhorns -3
  2. Chargers -15½
 
facook said:
What did he say?  I can't remember.
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He was just never worried that contract stuff would keep Zeke from playing W1. Like, at all. And he stuck with it. Allowing you to ignore all those BS Alfred Morris offers you received :P Or however that affected you personally..

 
Yo, Ed Orgeron is pretty good at covering him some spreads, too though. Covered 65% of his 35 games at LSU.. dude is a spread covering machine.

 
have a 10 team parlay been nursing since august, i want to close SO BAD with UT ML.   chain you getting me close.

 
I’m on the Montgomery train early

(all FanDuel)

O57.5 Rush yds -115

First TD +750

O80yds Rush/bears win +230

anytime TD/Bears win +210

 
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Sports betting became legal in Indiana September 1.

I’m at the Indianapolis OTB and put 10$ on Colts +7.5 for the season an $10 Packers-Bears +46.5. 😀

 
Rodgers attempted zero passes this preseason. The L3 seasons he attempted 4,9,9 in the preseason. Pack was held to zero points combined in the 1H of their L2 season openers, and 3 combined points in the 1H of their L2 games against Chicago. Rodgers engineered 2H comeback wins in 3 of those 4 games. That got me thinking GB 1st half touchdowns u½ +195 and highest scoring quarter: 4Q +210. But I got to thinking.. On the flip side, this is a new Packer offense. And the Bears can't see what's about to hit them. It's a road game, and GB will want to strike first and quiet the crowd on the road.

Only thing I'm holding is Pack u20 +141. I think I'm just going to wait until the half. And maybe put some money down on an A-Rod comeback win if it's some huge, unlikely payout. Rodgers' propensity for comeback victories still has me thinking about that highest scoring quarter: 4Q +210 though.

 
 Buddy of mine is pretty good with FCS leads/info.   Apparently they were gift wrapped 3 TD last week and it made the final result look better than it should have been  and he thinks it’s worked its way into the spread versus Virginia.

Long story short he thinks Virginia could just Boatrace W&M tonight.  

Opened at 32 and went down from there, so obviously there are some folks who see it differently.

 
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The Ref said:
 Buddy of mine is pretty good with FCS leads/info.   Apparently they were gift wrapped 3 TD last week and it made the final result look better than it should have been  and he thinks it’s worked its way into the spread versus Virginia.

Long story short he thinks Virginia could just Boatrace W&M tonight.  

Opened at 32 and went down from there, so obviously there are some folks who see it differently.
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I'm on Virginia -32

 
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