I find the golf tourneys where lots of the really good players sit out to be very interesting. I don't claim to be any kind of expert here on golf betting or any kind of betting. I like to do some research and read about players and place small wagers. I appreciate when guys post info so in an effort to contribute here is some junk...
Scottie Scheffler to be first round leader +4000-
Off to a great start as a rookie this year. Finished tied for 7th, 16th, and 74th. In three tournaments so far he has posted pre-cut rounds of 65,62,68,66,67,and 67. He is also from texas. Have to go back to 2014 for a tie for the leader at houston so splits are rare. His post cut numbers are pretty terrible.
Lanto Griffin to win +5000, to finish top 10 +425-
Four straight top 20's. Missed cut here last time, but he is playing incredibly well and this field is trash. Most birdies so far this year and most sub par rounds. Been under par in the final round in all four tourneys. Worst four round score so far is -9.
Denny Mccarthy +3300 to win,+700 top five.-
Three events so far. 31st, 18th, 9th. I really thought he was going to crack the top 5 this past Sunday and he just missed a couple. Finished 43rd here in only one start and his stats so far dont match up that well with what you usually need at houston. So lots of gut feel here and based on trend performance. He does rank 5th in par 4 birdie or better scoring though and the par 4's at houston are what separate.
Sebastian Munoz top 5 finish +700-
Already with a win this year and a tied for 7th. No history on this course, but his metrics fit well. SG approach,SG tee, driving accuracy. Missed cut last week, but should bounce back. Has only played one round over par this year. In a very similar field in July he also finished tied for 9th.
Debating Keegan Bradley at 40-1 based solely on past tourney history since he seems to really do well there.
ETA ended up adding michael thompson and bradley. Also put 1 dollar on a few guys to lead round 1, but they were just random longshot picks to pay attention to this afternoon.