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Official Hillary Clinton 2016 thread (12 Viewers)

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Latinos in California are pretty solidly for Hillary. I don't think that's going to change. And as far as New York goes, even if Bernie can bridge the current 12 point differential, the black vote in NYC should prevent him from winning by 56% or more. 56% means a 24 point turnaround from the current polling. 

So this still seems really really unlikely to me, even using the numbers you guys are presenting. 

 
Now if Bernie comes close but doesn't catch Hillary in pledged delegates, none of you guys are going to demand the super delegates switch over to him, right? 

 
timschochet said:
Latinos in California are pretty solidly for Hillary. I don't think that's going to change. And as far as New York goes, even if Bernie can bridge the current 12 point differential, the black vote in NYC should prevent him from winning by 56% or more. 56% means a 24 point turnaround from the current polling. 

So this still seems really really unlikely to me, even using the numbers you guys are presenting. 
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I think the goal for Sanders's campaign was to have it be close in NY, maybe CA and win bigger in other remaining states. We all admit it's still unlikely he pulls it off, but it's less unlikely than it was a month or so ago.

 
squistion said:
I think the Maris poll was an outlier. I have difficulty believing 63% of Latinos in California supporting a candidate who had no name recognition with over 70% of them six months ago. Possible I guess, but seems unlikely.
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What is the actual total Latino vote for Hillary in the LAT poll?

 
Gr00vus said:
Nah. If she gets the nomination the only thing that will stop her from winning it all is an indictment or some other catastrophic failure on her part. The Rs are running unelectables out there.
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I agree. The contest between Hillary and Bernie is San Antonio vs. Golden State. The Republicans are the Eastern conference. 

 
timschochet said:
Latinos in California are pretty solidly for Hillary. I don't think that's going to change. And as far as New York goes, even if Bernie can bridge the current 12 point differential, the black vote in NYC should prevent him from winning by 56% or more. 56% means a 24 point turnaround from the current polling. 

So this still seems really really unlikely to me, even using the numbers you guys are presenting. 
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He doesn't need 56% in NY.  If he wins NY at all, he's in a very good position. 

 
It's funny we have been told for months that Bernie can't win the general or will be a liability because he will be painted red. Ok why would the SDs send their party to electoral doom when they can roll out a winner like Hillary?

 
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SaintsInDome2006 said:
It's funny we have been told for months that Bernie can't win the general or will be a liability because he will be painted red. Ok why would the SDs send their party to electoral doom when they can roll out a winner like Hillary?
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The reason the Super Delegates will no doubt choose Hillary is that she has spent years campaigning for various Democrats around the country. She's paid her dues. Not saying I like this system, but that's how it works. 

 
timschochet said:
The reason the Super Delegates will no doubt choose Hillary is that she has spent years campaigning for various Democrats around the country. She's paid her dues. Not saying I like this system, but that's how it works. 
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If Sanders has the popular vote and the delegates, and Clinton gets the nomination, the Democratic Party is in a world of trouble.

 
timschochet said:
The reason the Super Delegates will no doubt choose Hillary is that she has spent years campaigning for various Democrats around the country. She's paid her dues. Not saying I like this system, but that's how it works. 
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Tim you know it's the McGovern scenario, that's why SD's exist. You and Squizz and other Hillaryites have been harping forever that the reason to vote for Hill is Bern will get whacked in the general election.

 
timschochet said:
Except they won't and we all know it. 

In the end, if it's Hillary vs. Trump, or Hillary vs. Cruz, they won't sit out. Not in any significant number. 
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If Bernie gets the pledged delegate lead and the supers overturn the will of the voters, especially given the surge in momentum necessary for that to happen, enough will sit out or Hod forbid vote for Trump that the election will put us dangerously close to a Trump Whitehouse.

 
DWS says this business about the SDs will go with whoever has the most del's no matter how slim because she doesn't believe she will be put to the test, DWS is completely behind Hillary all the way.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
There. And SDs are there to prevent that kind of thing, if what you say is true, so there is no way they will let him go to the general as the party flag bearer.
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Not if he comes in to with the convention with a majority of the delegates.  SDs may be there to prevent a Trump like candidate leading with 35% coming into the convention with the establishment candidates split and polling over 50% between them.

 
Gr00vus said:
That would be the only sure way to alienate the Sanders voters. It's a lose/lose, I don't think they try that.
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My point to Squizz and Tim is to concede that Bernie really can win in the general. No I don't think the SDs would let him in if they thought he would lose, that is in fact their raison d'etre - however I think we all know that Sanders very much could well win. He's almost certain to vs Trump.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
DWS says this business about the SDs will go with whoever has the most del's no matter how slim because she doesn't believe she will be put to the test, DWS is completely behind Hillary all the way.
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I hate to say it, but she's probably right. I can't see Sanders winning NY. I think he might get thumped there actually, which would take us to like 99.995% game over.

 
cap'n grunge said:
If Bernie gets the pledged delegate lead and the supers overturn the will of the voters, especially given the surge in momentum necessary for that to happen, enough will sit out or Hod forbid vote for Trump that the election will put us dangerously close to a Trump Whitehouse.
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I don't believe it. 

And you didn't mean to type "Hod", right? You meant to type Zod. As in the general. 

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
My point to Squizz and Tim is to concede that Bernie really can win in the general. No I don't think the SDs would let him in if they thought he would lose, that is in fact their raison d'etre - however I think we all know that Sanders very much could well win. He's almost certain to vs Trump.
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Saints, I've been writing for weeks that IMO Bernie would pretty easily defeat Trump. I'm less certain about Bernie vs. Cruz. 

 
timschochet said:
The reason the Super Delegates will no doubt choose Hillary is that she has spent years campaigning for various Democrats around the country. She's paid her dues. Not saying I like this system, but that's how it works. 
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Hillary's political career as an elected politician was born on 3rd base.

 
timschochet said:
Saints, I've been writing for weeks that IMO Bernie would pretty easily defeat Trump. I'm less certain about Bernie vs. Cruz. 
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True, but we were talking about SDs and it was raised what would happen if Sanders made the convention.

Squizz still thinks Bernie gets painted as a red commie by the GOP - and Trump no doubt will, and I think he already has. I think he's on an island at this point thinking Sanders would lose if allowed into the general. But if he's right and if it's that obvious then the SDs will indeed reject Bernie.

But if we both agree that the SDs realize that Bernie would and could win then they would swing to him for that reason. And if it came to that Hillary would already be limping and badly damaged anyway.

But the SDs aren't just going to vote for someone because a candidate has the majority of votes or delegates no matter how small. they exist precisely for the scenario that an extremist gets into the general with no chance. -  I could see the point about an important part of the base going crazy over a perceived unfair decision though, so now doubt they might take the best thing for the party in mind.

Funny it's hard to imagine Hillary supporters having that reaction if they were so jilted.

 
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