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Official Hillary Clinton 2016 thread (2 Viewers)

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For Johnson to be polling this high at this point in the campaign is really amazing.  As people more and more search for alternatives, Johnson's numbers will continue to grow.

 
squistion said:
Liam Donovan @LPDonovan

NBC/Marist is just brutal for Trump- tops out in the high 30s in must-win states... http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/clinton-leads-trump-diverse-battleground-states-new-polls-n609551 …
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Looking at the Four-Way Horserace


When the presidential contest expands to four candidates — including Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and the Green Party's Jill Stein — the Clinton-vs.-Trump horserace remains essentially unchanged.

In Colorado, Clinton gets support from 39 percent of registered voters, Trump gets 33 percent, Johnson gets 13 percent and Stein gets 4 percent.

In Florida, it's Clinton 41 percent, Trump 36 percent, Johnson 7 percent and Stein 4 percent.

In North Carolina, it's Clinton 42 percent, Trump 36 percent, Johnson 7 percent and Stein 2 percent.

And in Virginia, it's Clinton 41 percent, Trump 34 percent, Johnson 10 percent and Stein 2 percent.
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Two Unpopular Candidates


Despite Clinton's leads, she and Trump are both unpopular in these battlegrounds, although Trump is slightly more unpopular.

  • Colorado: Clinton 34 percent favorable, 62 percent unfavorable (-28); Trump 27 percent favorable, 67 percent unfavorable (-40).
  • Florida: Clinton 37 percent favorable, 58 percent unfavorable (-21); Trump 34 percent favorable, 61 percent unfavorable (-27).
  • North Carolina: Clinton 37 percent favorable, 58 percent unfavorable (-21); Trump 31 percent favorable, 61 percent unfavorable (-30).
  • Virginia: Clinton 37 percent favorable, 58 percent unfavorable (-21); Trump 29 percent favorable, 65 percent unfavorable (-36).
"The driving force behind voters' choices is the negative impressions they have of both Trump and Clinton. Clinton's single-digit lead in each of these states is due to her slight advantage in how voters perceive the two candidates," Miringoff adds.
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- Trump has a ceiling in the 40s in several states IMO that's one of his big problems, I don't think he will get around it.

- 3rd party candidates are getting on average 13 points per state in these 4 states.

- The Unfavorable numbers for these two are unreal.

 
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Meatwad Reloaded said:
I do not think you are right on that.  He is currently raising a fair amount of money.  Its all going to get spent.  Raised 51 million in June alone...what do you think he is going to do, pocket all of that?  




 
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Um, yeah. He's not going to return any of the money that is left following the campaign. It will sit in some bullcrap PAC he creates and he'll spend it on things like signed helmets from Tebow or fly to "party" events. 

 
TobiasFunke said:
You're in the wrong place, pal.  Only polls showing the race to be a dead heat or worse that allow the Sanders supporters to smugly tell everyone "I told you so" and the Trump trolls to emerge from under the bridge and return to the FFA are welcome around here.
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In fairness most of us were locked under the bridge or are still locked under there

 
jon_mx said:
For Johnson to be polling this high at this point in the campaign is really amazing.  As people more and more search for alternatives, Johnson's numbers will continue to grow.
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Johnson will continue to grow.   "Vote Johnson, he is growing" 

 
Politician Spock said:
Some people tell me to vote for Hillary because she's not Trump. Other people tell me to vote for Trump because he's not Hillary.

I'm going to vote for Johnson and get a two for one deal. 
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Yup. You're gonna get stuck with either Clinton or Trump and you'll get no say in which one it will be.  Two for one!

You seem like the sort of gentleman who would enjoy a good Charlie Pierce rant, so I'll leave it to him to convey the message.

 
TobiasFunke said:
Yup. You're gonna get stuck with either Clinton or Trump and you'll get no say in which one it will be.  Two for one!

You seem like the sort of gentleman who would enjoy a good Charlie Pierce rant, so I'll leave it to him to convey the message.
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While I haven't voted since 2006, I've never in my life voted for a democrat. So from your perspective, you should want me to vote Johnson or not vote at all. The Clintons are the epitome of why I've never voted for a democrat.

 
Sinn Fein said:
The sense of uneasiness among Senate Democrats is heightened by their observation that Trump has stayed within striking distance in pivotal states despite being vastly outspent.

NBC News reported this week that Clinton’s campaign and allied super-PACs have spent $57 million so far, while Trump’s campaign hasn’t spent anything, and two allied outside groups have spent only $3.6 million.

Team Clinton has outspent Team Trump in nine battleground states by a 40-1 ratio, NBC reported.

:popcorn:
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Hillary is the new Jeb

 
Politician Spock said:
While I haven't voted since 2006, I've never in my life voted for a democrat. So from your perspective, you should want me to vote Johnson or not vote at all. The Clintons are the epitome of why I've never voted for a democrat.
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I don't think this election isn't about Republican vs Democrat, or at least it shouldn't be. It's should be about people who can condone authoritarianism, fear-mongering, xenophobia, bigotry and constant lying in the name of those things vs those who can't. You seem like a reasonable and decent man so I assume you fall into the "not OK with that stuff" category, as do most of the other people around here that are leaning third party.

OTOH I do like Johnson's weed advocacy, so let's get that guy on the main stage.

 
TobiasFunke said:
I don't think this election isn't about Republican vs Democrat, or at least it shouldn't be. It's should be about people who can condone authoritarianism, fear-mongering, xenophobia, bigotry and constant lying in the name of those things vs those who can't. You seem like a reasonable and decent man so I assume you fall into the "not OK with that stuff" category, as do most of the other people around here that are leaning third party.

OTOH I do like Johnson's weed advocacy, so let's get that guy on the main stage.
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I'm holding up a mirror for you on the bolded. 

 
Politician Spock said:
I'm holding up a mirror for you on the bolded. 
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Sure, that's fair. I consider it a completely rational and justified fear, an argument I could make by quoting Trump himself and not editorializing, so it's not really "fear-mongering" IMO.  But your point stands.  If you want to remove that part of my description of Trump's politics I think what's left is still plenty of reason to oppose him by any means possible.

But I'm kinda tired of having this argument with third party voters to be honest. I really just wanted to riff of your "two for one" line by pointing out the two for one that you're actually getting.

 
timschochet said:
I might consider Johnson, but I've heard he's kind of a #####. 
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Is that a joke? Because he came out and called Trump exactly that.

eta - Wait did you mean ##### or #####? Because GJ called Trump a ##### not a #####. Unless you meant ####, yeah that I could see about Hillary but no one would ever say she was a #### or a #####, though I'm sure ##### definitely applies too.

 
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FatUncleJerryBuss said:
Johnson will continue to grow.   "Vote Johnson, he is growing" 
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Hillary really needs to be worried as a lot of woman will be watching  closely as Johnson's poll numbers grow and things begin to really tighten up as this thing comes to a climax.  

 
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TobiasFunke said:
I don't think this election isn't about Republican vs Democrat, or at least it shouldn't be. It's should be about people who can condone authoritarianism, fear-mongering, xenophobia, bigotry and constant lying in the name of those things vs those who can't. You seem like a reasonable and decent man so I assume you fall into the "not OK with that stuff" category, as do most of the other people around here that are leaning third party.

OTOH I do like Johnson's weed advocacy, so let's get that guy on the main stage.
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Voting against athoritarianism and constant lying by voting for Hillary???!??   Really? :confused:  

 
jon_mx said:
Voting against athoritarianism and constant lying by voting for Hillary???!??   Really? :confused:  
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And hey, right on time, here's a column that has discussion of both the relative extent of the candidates' lying and their gestures of authoritarianism (with respect to the press). 

Enjoy all four links this weekend, GB!

 
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TobiasFunke said:
Yes, really.

Constant lying

I wouldn't even know where to start on the authoritarianism. I guess here?   Maybe with those left-wing hippies over at reason.com?
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My comment had nothing to do with whether Trump lies more or less.  Trump is an idiot and probably does lead the pack in false claims.  Hillary outright lies constantly by saying things she knows is not true.  67 percent of people consider Hillary a liar,  voting for her because you want to vote against lying is a strange point.    

 
jon_mx said:
My comment had nothing to do with whether Trump lies more or less.  Trump is an idiot and probably does lead the pack in false claims.  Hillary outright lies constantly by saying things she knows is not true.  67 percent of people consider Hillary a liar,  voting for her because you want to vote against lying is a strange point.    
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All politicians lie, in fact all people lie. But there's only two politicians/people left with any chance to win the 2016 election.  One clearly lies a lot more than the other and clearly feels no accountability to explain or apologize for the lies.  I consider a vote for the other to be a pretty clear vote against lying.

 
TobiasFunke said:
All politicians lie, in fact all people lie. But there's only two politicians/people left with any chance to win the 2016 election.  One clearly lies a lot more than the other and clearly feels no accountability to explain or apologize for the lies.  I consider a vote for the other to be a pretty clear vote against lying.
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There is a difference between making false statements and lying.  Trump is just dumb and as one of the articles pointed out does not have the staff Hillary does to fact-check and put out the spin.  Hillary is a clever lawyer who tells lies which she knows are not true.

I will not vote for people unfit for the position and do not believe there are only two viable candidates.   

 
TobiasFunke said:
But there's only two politicians/people left with any chance to win the 2016 election.
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Are you dismissing Johnson's chances?

I can envision a scenario where Hillary is indicted after all (perhaps for a scandal that has not yet come to light), and Trump, never having wanted to be President in the first place, drops out of the race to spend more time with Ivanka.

 
squistion said:
First indications are that Comey hearing didn't Hillary, but it may be too early to assess if there is long term impact.

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 51m51 minutes ago

No real change in polls over the past week. Trump at 22.5% in our polls-only forecast today. Was 22.4% a week ago.

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 50m50 minutes ago


There have been some strong individual polls for Trump, and Clinton but -- as is often the case -- they more or less cancel out.
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squistion said:
Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 1h1 hour ago

Per our model Trump's chances are up to about 35% as we head into the conventions. My view on where the race stands:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-10-questions-about-where-the-2016-race-stands/
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Ok then.

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
Are you dismissing Johnson's chances?

I can envision a scenario where Hillary is indicted after all (perhaps for a scandal that has not yet come to light), and Trump, never having wanted to be President in the first place, drops out of the race to spend more time with Ivanka.
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Johnson's numbers go down if Trump drops out.

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
Are you dismissing Johnson's chances?

I can envision a scenario where Hillary is indicted after all (perhaps for a scandal that has not yet come to light), and Trump, never having wanted to be President in the first place, drops out of the race to spend more time with Ivanka.
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Yes I'm assuming they both stay on the ballot until election day.  Of course something could happen- one of them dying seems the most likely since they're both pretty old and the election is four months away.

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
I can envision a scenario where Hillary is indicted after all (perhaps for a scandal that has not yet come to light)
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Oh, I just thought of a good one. What if Hillary hires a hit man to kill Trump, but unlike with Vince Foster, she gets caught this time? That eliminates both candidates with one stone. I don't think we can put that past her.

 
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Maurile Tremblay said:
Oh, I just thought of a good one. What if Hillary hires a hit man to kill Trump, but unlike with Vince Foster, she gets caught this time? That eliminates both candidates with one stone. I don't think we put that past her.
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Nah, it would be one of Hillary's aides hired a hit man without her knowledge.   

 
jon_mx said:
There is a difference between making false statements and lying.  Trump is just dumb and as one of the articles pointed out does not have the staff Hillary does to fact-check and put out the spin.  Hillary is a clever lawyer who tells lies which she knows are not true.

I will not vote for people unfit for the position and do not believe there are only two viable candidates.   
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Oh please.  "Doesn't have the staff"?  You don't need a large staff to correct yourself when you're asked about your lies over and over again.  He's certainly dumb but he's a brazen and unapologetic liar too, and with most of his lies he knows exactly what he's doing.

Politifact assembled the data on the candidate's lies.  You want to take it up with them, go for it.  You want to excuse Trump's lies with some lies of your own, go for it. Doesn't make what I said any less valid.

 
TobiasFunke said:
Oh please.  "Doesn't have the staff"?  You don't need a large staff to correct yourself when you're asked about your lies over and over again.  He's certainly dumb but he's a brazen and unapologetic liar too, and with most of his lies he knows exactly what he's doing.

Politifact assembled the data on the candidate's lies.  You want to take it up with them, go for it.  You want to excuse Trump's lies with some lies of your own, go for it. Doesn't make what I said any less valid.
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She's a brazen and unapologetic liar too, and with most of her lies she knows exactly what she's doing.

 
squistion said:
Silver uses two different statistical models in his forecasts. I believe one looks at national polls only, while the other state by state electoral.
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Both models consider individual state polls (as well as national polls). The difference between the two models is that one looks only at polls of all types, while the other also looks at economic data (since candidates from the incumbent party have an advantage when the economy is good, and a disadvantage when the economy is bad).

 
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TobiasFunke said:
Oh please.  "Doesn't have the staff"?  You don't need a large staff to correct yourself when you're asked about your lies over and over again.  He's certainly dumb but he's a brazen and unapologetic liar too, and with most of his lies he knows exactly what he's doing.

Politifact assembled the data on the candidate's lies.  You want to take it up with them, go for it.  You want to excuse Trump's lies with some lies of your own, go for it. Doesn't make what I said any less valid.
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No, they look at the number of statements which they judged to be untrue, which is different.  I am sure Trump probably lies often.  But that does not drive me to vote for a different liar.  

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
Both models consider individual state polls (as well as national polls). The difference between the two models is that one looks only at polls of all types, while the other also looks at economic data (since candidates from the incumbent party have an advantage when the economy is good, and a disadvantage when the economy is bad).
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It was the same model being compared I do believe, and actually I checked, it's the same, per the graph in the link.

Trump's gone up quite a bit in a week, 50+%.

 
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Maurile Tremblay said:
Oh, I just thought of a good one. What if Hillary hires a hit man to kill Trump, but unlike with Vince Foster, she gets caught this time? That eliminates both candidates with one stone. I don't think we can put that past her.
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Hillary and Trump could be the next Tanya Harding and Nancy Kerrigan. Just picture Trump doubled over holding his balls crying "why?.... why?...."

 
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