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Official Hillary Clinton 2016 thread (2 Viewers)

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Oh and by the way. For any Hillary supporter to even use the words critical thinking is funny as hell.  They didn't do any and that's why we are where we are. They ignored evidence. They ignored her incredibly terrible numbers. They ignored everything so they could anoint her.. And then to have the gall to suggest others aren't thinking things through. The irony is thick.

 
Oh and by the way. For any Hillary supporter to even use the words critical thinking is funny as hell.  They didn't do any and that's why we are where we are. They ignored evidence. They ignored her incredibly terrible numbers. They ignored everything so they could anoint her.. And then to have the gall to suggest others aren't thinking things through. The irony is thick.
:goodposting:  

 
Oh and by the way. For any Hillary supporter to even use the words critical thinking is funny as hell.  They didn't do any and that's why we are where we are. They ignored evidence. They ignored her incredibly terrible numbers. They ignored everything so they could anoint her.. And then to have the gall to suggest others aren't thinking things through. The irony is thick.
:goodposting: ....hey!

 
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The Clintons would have him donate to orchestrate an impartial hearing where they allowed those most opposed to Snowden to also contribute.  In the end, one payment from each would not be enough to decide.  Perhaps everyone wants to play again next year?  My bathroom needs a remodel.

 
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He has been instigating additional violence against individuals.  He has fostered and formented the racist and anti-semitic at times chants at his rallies He has encouraged and never discouraged calling out the Press as the dirty Jews they are (the "Jew-S-A" guy is just one example)

He's talked about not allowing entire ethnicities in our nation.  He's not spoken against, and often used terminology and tactics taken, literally, from Nazi and KKK groups. He's talked about rounding up millions upon millions of people for immediate deportation.

See, the world is not white and black. it's all kind of grey.  Trump doesn't have to be pulling up the trains to the chamber to be stepping in territory that is still well beyond the pale. At least for people who have any respect for others.  To me, even one step in that direction is one too many.  And we've seen multiple steps in terms of rhetoric, planned policy and action (or inaction in the face of disgusting antics that Trump not only does not denounce, but encourages).

Does that at all make sense? It's hardly some way out there theory, it's not suggesting Trump is Hitler... but it also points out clear and repeated examples of similarities in terms of their approach, how they fire up the base, and their behavior.  That's not alarming in and of itself?
i think you're being overly excitable.  for several reasons.   The right in this country is pro- Jew.    Its the left that is anti jew.    secondly, this is a nation of 300 Million guns, no one is going to be able to successfully disarm the population to the point where you could force jews into cattle cars.   third, Trump wouldn't have the power to do anything like what you seem to fear, and most likely would be assassinated or impeached before any of your supposed fears could be fulfilled.

 
The Clintons would have him donate to orchestrate an impartial hearing where they allowed those most opposed to Snowden to also contribute.  In the end, one payment from each would not be enough to decide.  Perhaps everyone wants to play again next year?  My bathroom needs a remodel.
Kind of like Kuwait and UBS? You know each giving to CGI to gain access trying to get the then Secy of State Clinton to side with them on a 5 billion dollar contract issue?

 
It's hilarious that the right loves wikileaks now.  Next hero of the right: Edward Snowden. If Trump wins all Snowden has to do is compliment him in tweet and he's pardoned.
i'm on the right and have been pro snowden all along.   I seem to remember Tim in particular (a lefty) firmly entrenched in his anti snowden schtick at that time.

if you truly believe in individual liberty and rights, you applaud what Snowden revealed

 
i think you're being overly excitable.  for several reasons.   The right in this country is pro- Jew.    Its the left that is anti jew.    secondly, this is a nation of 300 Million guns, no one is going to be able to successfully disarm the population to the point where you could force jews into cattle cars.   third, Trump wouldn't have the power to do anything like what you seem to fear, and most likely would be assassinated or impeached before any of your supposed fears could be fulfilled.
The left isn't anti-Jew. Jews are a large part of the left. The left is anti-occupation. There is a difference.

 
One said she voted twice because trump told her to. The other did it because Trump told her the polls were rigged and she should vote multiple times. So words do have an impact.
Very deep cover DNC operatives.  Paid for indirectly by the wicked witch.

 
The Clinton would have him donate to orchestrate an impartial hearing where they allowed those most opposed to Snowden to also contribute.  In the end, one payment from each would not be enough to decide.  Perhaps everyone wants to play again next year?  My bathroom needs a remodel.
You've gone off the deep end. Yesterday you alluded to a fake story (that also snared Sean Hannity) about Michelle Obama deleting Hillary mentions from her twitter feed. As someone who backed Bernie I agree she's awful but this is getting ridiculous.  Soon, the 9/11 truthers are going to tie her to the WTC7 collapse (if they haven't already).

 
Sinn Fein:

All within two days of the actual vote where Clinton lost by 1.5

Polls, even in 2016, are not infallible...
Yes, we can all point to Michigan as an outlier. But that was just one state and it wasn't very thoroughly polled (at least one of the poll companies used landlines only, which significantly reduced the number of younger respondents). But we've got literally thousands of Clinton-Trump polls, hundreds of which utilize the latest technologies and methods available in the world of polling. Taken together, they point to a strong electoral lead for Clinton.

A Trump victory would require the equivalent of 5 Michigans happening at the same time on the same day. Actually, that's not even a very good analogy because most of the battleground states have been polled more thoroughly than the Michigan primary was polled.

Anyway, it may not be impossible, but it's very, very, very unlikely.

 
The religious right is pro-Armageddon, not pro-Jew. They want the final battle so bad they can taste it. Kind of like how they are pro-fetus not pro-child.
There's the super kooky let's get our Armageddon on part of the religious right, but they aren't all that way.  Like I said, they're pro-Israel, not necessarily pro-Jew.

 
And if you really want to be scared about polls, I give you the 2015 Governor's race here in Kentucky.  Democrat Jack Conway was comfortably ahead of Republican Matt Bevin  going into the election.

Bevin, for those that don't know, is essentially Trump, minus the Reality TV show background.  He is the one who recently suggested taking up arms if the election does not go the way he wants...

Bevin won the election by 9 points.

It feels like déjà vu all over again: The polls in a major election were off by a wide margin. The surveys leading up to Tuesday’s gubernatorial election in Kentucky pointed to a close fight between Democrat Jack Conway and Republican Matt Bevin, with Conway holding a slight edge in all but one poll. Instead, Bevin won 53 percent to 44 percent.
Clearly polls can miss an election result. That just happens with statistics. But comparing one statewide election to a national election is flawed. The problem in arguing that Trump could beat the odds is that he'd basically have to repeat this scenario in several states instead of just one. So if his win probability in three swing states was 30% each (just to pick a number), his chance of winning all three is actually closer to 8 percent. Not impossible of course, but not something I'd bet money on either,

 
And if you really want to be scared about polls, I give you the 2015 Governor's race here in Kentucky.  Democrat Jack Conway was comfortably ahead of Republican Matt Bevin  going into the election.

Bevin, for those that don't know, is essentially Trump, minus the Reality TV show background.  He is the one who recently suggested taking up arms if the election does not go the way he wants...

Bevin won the election by 9 points.

It feels like déjà vu all over again: The polls in a major election were off by a wide margin. The surveys leading up to Tuesday’s gubernatorial election in Kentucky pointed to a close fight between Democrat Jack Conway and Republican Matt Bevin, with Conway holding a slight edge in all but one poll. Instead, Bevin won 53 percent to 44 percent.
Clearly polls can miss an election result. That just happens with statistics. But comparing one statewide election to a national election is flawed. The problem in arguing that Trump could beat the odds is that he'd basically have to repeat this scenario in several states instead of just one. So if his win probability in three swing states was 30% each (just to pick a number), his chance of winning all three is actually closer to 8 percent. Not impossible of course, but not something I'd bet money on either,

 
You've gone off the deep end. Yesterday you alluded to a fake story (that also snared Sean Hannity) about Michelle Obama deleting Hillary mentions from her twitter feed. As someone who backed Bernie I agree she's awful but this is getting ridiculous.  Soon, the 9/11 truthers are going to tie her to the WTC7 collapse (if they haven't already).
Wikileaks pretty much undercuts your outrage. It is obvious from the Band emails exactly how things worked. And they did pit donors against each other for more money. As I related above. Pay for play all day in every way.

 
You've gone off the deep end. Yesterday you alluded to a fake story (that also snared Sean Hannity) about Michelle Obama deleting Hillary mentions from her twitter feed. As someone who backed Bernie I agree she's awful but this is getting ridiculous.  Soon, the 9/11 truthers are going to tie her to the WTC7 collapse (if they haven't already).
Consuming news has become a challenge these days.  The sources we grew up watching every evening in our homes have become corrupted.  People are seeking alternative sources via social media.  Sometimes there are inaccuracies.  Unfortunately, this is all a product of distrust for the media.  If they wouldn't have whored themselves out to the highest bidder, maybe people wouldn't all be seeking out alternative media choices.

 
Dear Sinn Fein,

This time next week, our world will have completely changed.

We'll either have elected the first female president, along with a ton of forward-thinking Democrats to help her achieve real change in the House or the Senate.

Or, we will have elected a host of ignorant bigots that will control our country's future for the next few years.

You can make sure that isn't the case. How? By chipping in for the tools Democrats use to raise the resources they need.

You stay classy, Democrats.

 
i'm on the right and have been pro snowden all along.   I seem to remember Tim in particular (a lefty) firmly entrenched in his anti snowden schtick at that time.

if you truly believe in individual liberty and rights, you applaud what Snowden revealed
Tim isn't a lefty

 
538 has Hillary back up in FL.

Still having a tough time figuring out a Trump victory looking at the map. I can envision a tie though, which would be such a fitting outcome for this #### show.

Although for that to happen, Trump needs to win FL, NC, NV, and NH

 
Eh the Clintons are a known quantity.

A constitutional crisis like you mention where 90% of America never really got constitutional civics wakes up to learn the tie breaker procedure is worst case scenario. Bush vs Gore was bad enough.

A Trump win literally upsets the balance of power in the world. And things go haywire here. IMO. The man absolutely cannot properly govern. I wouldn't put him in charge of a grocery store.
Don't worry, I don't think Trump wants to manage your grocery store either.

 
Sinn Fein:
 

Yes, we can all point to Michigan as an outlier. But that was just one state and it wasn't very thoroughly polled (at least one of the poll companies used landlines only, which significantly reduced the number of younger respondents). But we've got literally thousands of Clinton-Trump polls, hundreds of which utilize the latest technologies and methods available in the world of polling. Taken together, they point to a strong electoral lead for Clinton.

A Trump victory would require the equivalent of 5 Michigans happening at the same time on the same day. Actually, that's not even a very good analogy because most of the battleground states have been polled more thoroughly than the Michigan primary was polled.

Anyway, it may not be impossible, but it's very, very, very unlikely.
I disagree with this. First, obviously, the margin between Clinton and Trump in the polls is MUCH smaller than the margin between Clinton and Sanders before the Michigan primary. Second, the thing about polling is that it is generally based on certain shared assumptions based on previous elections. If something upsets that balance ... say a particular demographic group comes out or stays home far more than than they had in previous elections ... all of the polls will be off.  Not more than 2-3 points, most likely, but it can happen. In 2012 the RCP polling average had the election much closer than it turned out.  IIRC most of the polls assumed youth and black turnout would be more in line with the historical numbers than the 2008 election, and that assumption was incorrect.  The same thing could happen here, in either direction. In Clinton's direction the most likely possibility is vastly underestimating the Hispanic turnout, historically very low.  In Trump's direction the most likely possibility is vastly underestimating the white non-college turnout, also fairly low historically. 

On the Michigan primary thing, though, there were lots of variables there that don't seem to apply to the general election.  Looking at 538's breakdown on the Michigan primary polling miss, it seems unlikely that any of the things said about Sanders there could apply to Trump or to a general election poll.  So probably not the best analogy for a potential polling error in Trump's favor.  But as I said before, it doesn't have to be.  He only needs to pick up maybe 2 points over the current polling averages to give himself a very good chance at victory.

Sorry for the nerdy intermission.  Back to your regularly scheduled cries of corruption.

 
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I'm fairly confident Trump takes FL.  He is getting huge turnouts at rally's here.  Hers... Not so much...  In the hundreds, and guaranteed a few "bill Clinton is a rapist" posters.

 
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I suspect the polls are wrong.  Nothing against Nate Silver's site.  It's impressive and how I would forecast as well.  But we have never seen a game-changer like we are seeing play out in the end like this.  And yes I read his article talking about the late game-changers. They were all on 1-2 where this is closer to a 9 (on a ten-point scale).  I don't think the polls are capturing the anti-Hillary vote all that well.  It is surging.  

 
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