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***Official Iowa Caucus Thread*** (1 Viewer)

On the democratic side, its all about turnout, the demographics of the turnout, and the location of the turn out.

There will be a little gamesmanship in the cuscuses themselves - there is a cheatsheet floating around for Clinton's and Bernie's team to know when they need to support O'Malley, and make him viable to keep the other candidate from getting too many delegates from a precinct.

 
Snow expected for parts of the state - not sure who that favors. Seasoned caucus goers would brave the snow, so would younger voters. Older voters might stay home, ditto for would-be first time middle age caucus goers who would probably lean Bernie.

 
Might be better to have two threads, one for the Democrats and another for the GOP. Would just as soon not see the Trumpeters and their opposition ranting here when we are seriously trying to discuss Bernie and Hillary.

Just my :2cents:

 
Sinn Fein said:
Snow expected for parts of the state - not sure who that favors. Seasoned caucus goers would brave the snow, so would younger voters. Older voters might stay home, ditto for would-be first time middle age caucus goers who would probably lean Bernie.
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Supposed to move in Monday night, but around caucus time, shouldn't be too bad.

 
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Snow hurts Sanders and Trump who have more first-time caucus goers who are generally less reliable.

Look for the big Des Moines Register poll to come out Saturday at 5:45. This is the best poll in the business. It predicted Obama in 2008 and has other big success stories under its belt. Exactly 24 hours from now we will have a very good idea of who is going to win.

 
Higgs said:
Snow hurts Sanders and Trump who have more first-time caucus goers who are generally less reliable.

Look for the big Des Moines Register poll to come out Saturday at 5:45. This is the best poll in the business. It predicted Obama in 2008 and has other big success stories under its belt. Exactly 24 hours from now we will have a very good idea of who is going to win.
Click to expand...
My guess right now is Hillary +5. We'll see.

 
Hopefully they've corrected whatever mistakes they made in 2012. IIRC, Tuesday night they announced that Santorum was the winner. A few hours later they said too close to call. Then the next day they said Romney was the winner. Then Santorum's people challenged the result. A couple weeks went by or longer and they declared Santorum the winner.

What a cluster####. It didn't matter that much because all Romney had to do was be close and that's all that anybody cared about. Santorum didn't have much of a shot no matter what. But this time around, in both parties, the stakes are a lot higher. So they'd better not screw this up.

 
I think it is going to come down to the wire for the Dems, but I have a feeling Clinton eeks it out,

I think Cruz really hurt himself last night and that will be enough to push Trump over.

This is going to be exciting....

 
timschochet said:
Hopefully they've corrected whatever mistakes they made in 2012. IIRC, Tuesday night they announced that Santorum was the winner. A few hours later they said too close to call. Then the next day they said Romney was the winner. Then Santorum's people challenged the result. A couple weeks went by or longer and they declared Santorum the winner.

What a cluster####. It didn't matter that much because all Romney had to do was be close and that's all that anybody cared about. Santorum didn't have much of a shot no matter what. But this time around, in both parties, the stakes are a lot higher. So they'd better not screw this up.
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At one point it was a tie.

 
Even though Trump was polling ahead, I thought Cruz had a shot at him...before the debate. Now I think it's Trump's to lose. That being said, Trump's "ground game" and riskier approach to debates/appearances are interesting factors.

On the Democrat side they are calling it a dead heat.

 
timschochet said:
Hopefully they've corrected whatever mistakes they made in 2012. IIRC, Tuesday night they announced that Santorum was the winner. A few hours later they said too close to call. Then the next day they said Romney was the winner. Then Santorum's people challenged the result. A couple weeks went by or longer and they declared Santorum the winner.

What a cluster####. It didn't matter that much because all Romney had to do was be close and that's all that anybody cared about. Santorum didn't have much of a shot no matter what. But this time around, in both parties, the stakes are a lot higher. So they'd better not screw this up.
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Between that incident and the hanging chads...just a tad bit embarrassing for the country.

 
Link to the Iowa Republican Caucus page at the Green Papers website.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/IA-R#0201

Shorthand version. The Republican Caucus is very different than the caucuses held prior to 2012 that you may be familiar with. (The Democrats still do it the old style way). While there is a meeting and order of events and everyone starts at 7pm central, there is no stand in different parts of the room deal - participants will each cast one secret ballot. 27 delegates will be allocated proportional to the number of votes each candidate receives. Pretty cut and dried. So let's say Trump is first with 33% and Cruz is second with 29%. Trump would be allotted 9 delegates. Cruz would get 8.

It really works a lot more like a primary than a typical caucus.

-QG

 
Been the most interesting presidential election cycle in my lifetime. Truthfully, this is the first time I have ever wanted it to last longer.

It has been a lot of fun watching the Dem and GOP races develop over time and to have two exciting races with a lot of question marks really makes my political junkie heart burst.

 
btw, for the Bernie supporters and assuming no indictment comes down on Hillary...is Iowa a must win state for Bernie?

I tend to think it is but I am not an expert on all things Democrat.

My understanding is that with Iowa having such a high "socialist" identification that if he can't win here then it doesn't bode well for the rest of the states outside of his home turf so to speak in NH.

 
Now as to the Democratic Caucus.

Oh boy.

First here's the link. I'll try to do a cliff notes type version: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/IA-D#0201

52 delegates are at stake. None will actually be official selected on Feb 1st. This is the first of a number of stages in the process. But it's the most reported. At these caucuses, the people who will go to the next stage (which I think is the County Conventions). The County Conventions will choose people for the District Conventions and then it'll all be finalized at the State Convention. In June.

Anyway, it's probably a good time to post the link to the Iowa Democrats about now: http://iowademocrats.org/

There's like I dunno 1800 or so caucus locations. And each of them are allocated a certain number of county convention delegates. And these county delegates will be allocated at each location among the viable candidates at that location.

To be viable you need to meet a threshold in the first round of voting. Anyone below the threshhold is non-viable and gets dropped and has to vote amongst the remaining choices or leave. It's just a big ol' mess.

Oh and your standing publicly in support of your candidate in a designated area of the caucus site. "Oh hi boss, so you're so supporting a different candidate. Oh that's great....." Once this has all been worked out the delegates to the next level are allocated.

Delegate math can make for some strange things to occur. Say a district has 4 delegate spots. Let's say Hillary has a small lead on Bernie and O'Malley has only a handful of people. Well with 4 delegates getting allocated and O'Malley looking unviable, it'd work out that Hillary and Bernie would each get 2 delegates (it would take, I believe, 62.5% of the 2-way vote b/w Hillary and Bernie for the split to go 3-1). So you can have a situation where Hillary has enough support to finish first, but not quite enough to get to that 3-1 split. What they can do, though, is throw a few people over to O'Malley and make him viable. And in that case, that 2-2 split could end up being 2 Hillary, 1 Bernie and O'Malley (essentially through strategic voting like this, they can deprive Bernie of a delegate (If the roles are reversed, Bernie folks could do the same to Hillary - I'm just doing this as a hypothetical example).

It's pretty crazy..

-QG

 
SIDA! said:
Been the most interesting presidential election cycle in my lifetime. Truthfully, this is the first time I have ever wanted it to last longer.

It has been a lot of fun watching the Dem and GOP races develop over time and to have two exciting races with a lot of question marks really makes my political junkie heart burst.
Click to expand...
The Game Change/Double Down book is going to be phenomenal.

 
Higgs said:
Snow hurts Sanders and Trump who have more first-time caucus goers who are generally less reliable.

Look for the big Des Moines Register poll to come out Saturday at 5:45. This is the best poll in the business. It predicted Obama in 2008 and has other big success stories under its belt. Exactly 24 hours from now we will have a very good idea of who is going to win.
Click to expand...
For those interested, there will be a live stream of the release of the final poll at 6:30 pm EST. here's a link - http://features.desmoinesregister.com/news/live-video/poll.php
 
Higgs said:
Higgs said:
Snow hurts Sanders and Trump who have more first-time caucus goers who are generally less reliable.

Look for the big Des Moines Register poll to come out Saturday at 5:45. This is the best poll in the business. It predicted Obama in 2008 and has other big success stories under its belt. Exactly 24 hours from now we will have a very good idea of who is going to win.
Click to expand...
For those interested, there will be a live stream of the release of the final poll at 6:30 pm EST. here's a link - http://features.desmoinesregister.com/news/live-video/poll.php
Click to expand...
Carried on Bloomberg video.

Harbinger?

 
Sinn Fein said:
On the democratic side, its all about turnout, the demographics of the turnout, and the location of the turn out.

There will be a little gamesmanship in the cuscuses themselves - there is a cheatsheet floating around for Clinton's and Bernie's team to know when they need to support O'Malley, and make him viable to keep the other candidate from getting too many delegates from a precinct.
Click to expand...
Love me some couscous too, GB

 
Higgs said:
Trump and Clinton!!!

Trump - 28

Cruz - 23

Rubio - 15

Clinton - 45

Sanders - 42
Click to expand...
That's.... not a great number for either of them. Hillary I can see generating machine turnout, but Trump has a lot of loosely affiliated voters, they may come, they may not, 5 points doesn't seem great to me. And he is still below 30.

 
Interesting that Trump scores higher than Cruz on the 4 trait questions in 3 of the 4 categories, including:

- most likely to win a general election

- most feared by enemies

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
Higgs said:
Trump and Clinton!!!

Trump - 28

Cruz - 23

Rubio - 15

Clinton - 45

Sanders - 42
Click to expand...
That's.... not a great number for either of them. Hillary I can see generating machine turnout, but Trump has a lot of loosely affiliated voters, they may come, they may not, 5 points doesn't seem great to me. And he is still below 30.
Click to expand...
all that is factored into the polls. They go to great lengths to poll likely voters. It is referred to universally as the gold standard in political polling. Their track record is impeccable.
 
Higgs said:
SaintsInDome2006 said:
Higgs said:
Trump and Clinton!!!

Trump - 28

Cruz - 23

Rubio - 15

Clinton - 45

Sanders - 42
Click to expand...
That's.... not a great number for either of them. Hillary I can see generating machine turnout, but Trump has a lot of loosely affiliated voters, they may come, they may not, 5 points doesn't seem great to me. And he is still below 30.
Click to expand...
all that is factored into the polls. They go to great lengths to poll likely voters. It is referred to universally as the gold standard in political polling. Their track record is impeccable.
Click to expand...
Yeah, Trump is probably more likely to exceed that margin than not. Hillary doesn't want to see a big turnout.

 
I really think this is good news for Trump. People still on the fence with the Donald will be pushed by these numbers . I really think we are witnessing a historic election on both sides . One where people are fed up and pissed off

And Clinton can't be happy with this poll. A close victory by her might actually be a victory long term for old Bernie

 
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HellToupee said:
I really think this is good news for Trump. People still on the fence with the Donald will be pushed by these numbers . I really think we are witnessing a historic election on both sides . One where people are fed up and pissed off

And Clinton can't be happy with this poll. A close victory by her might actually be a victory long term for old Bernie
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It's huge news for Trump. Most pundits have said that if he could win Iowa, with the huge lead he has in New Hampshire and his big lead nationally, that he could run away with the nomination.
 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
There's going to be an upset of some kind.

Maybe Rubio finishes second, who knows.
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If there was an upset, it would be huge news and very surprising. I can't say enough about this poll. It is ridiculously accurate and lady who dies it, Ann Selzer, is a God in the political science community. They not only employ the best techniques big they also put a lot of money into it.
 
The one caveat I'd throw out there right now with this poll... Where it has missed in the past has been the Christian conservative block getting more votes out come election night. This could help Cruz.

 
Surprised none of these guys have sent out mailers to the supporters of their opponents with the wrong caucus time and/or saying the caucus is Tuesday.

-QG

 
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