Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
:trainwreck:
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***Official Jays Thread*** They spent $234 Million on this? (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Northern Voice
- Start date
Northern Voice
Footballguy
20 game winner J.A. Happ. Just like we all predicted 
Northern Voice
Footballguy
Pretty fun weekend! I was there Saturday for Bautista's home run, saw yesterday in a bar. Might have to go back down for a couple against Baltimore. Interesting scenario here where the Jays need to beat Baltimore to stay in control of the wild card but at the same time, I'd rather face Baltimore in a one game wild card than Detroit (because of starting pitching)...
Northern Voice
Footballguy
Of course if Boston ever loses again, that last series could theoretically have meaning for the division. I just hope a wild card spot is clinched by then. Win tonight and 2 vs. Baltimore should do it.
Northern Voice
Footballguy
Sanchez next Tuesday vs. O's for the wild card looks pretty good to me. It was his 4th win of the season against them and they really didn't come particularly close to getting to him.
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
Gj Osuna.
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
Have they not clinched? Save Sanchez for 163 even if it means going to Baltimore.
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
So Estrada or Stroman vs Baltimore? Happy on 3 days? Lariano? Dickey? 
Dickey?
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Northern Voice
Footballguy
Liriano. Baltimore was terrible vs. lefties this season. Have Stroman ready to come out of the pen as well.
It's the Stroshow.
Regardless who they started it will be second guess ad nauseam if they lose. Personally I would prefer Liriano but will be moot if they can't score more than 2 runs (which wouldn't surprise me). Having Liriano in the pen does give them another lefty to face Davis, if needed, so there's that.
Regardless who they started it will be second guess ad nauseam if they lose. Personally I would prefer Liriano but will be moot if they can't score more than 2 runs (which wouldn't surprise me). Having Liriano in the pen does give them another lefty to face Davis, if needed, so there's that.
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
Gibby graded out fairly well in this exercise:
" In sum, we have some arguments for the managers who will be on the short list for American League Manager of the Year. John Farrell, John Gibbons, and Buck Showalter do well across the board, while Jeff Banister and Terry Francona have their strengths and weaknesses. Picking between them will be difficult. Almost impossible, even "
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-should-we-evaluate-a-manager/
" In sum, we have some arguments for the managers who will be on the short list for American League Manager of the Year. John Farrell, John Gibbons, and Buck Showalter do well across the board, while Jeff Banister and Terry Francona have their strengths and weaknesses. Picking between them will be difficult. Almost impossible, even "
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/how-should-we-evaluate-a-manager/
Northern Voice
Footballguy
First playoff game ever in Toronto where the roof will be open.
Northern Voice
Footballguy
Northern Voice
Footballguy
I like Stroman better than Tillman. I think the offense's are about equal but the Jays have been pretty cold lately.. I think Orioles have cooled off as well.
Big thing is Jays need to get ahead earlier in the game because as much as Stroman is better than Tillman, the O's bullpen is better than the Jays.
Big thing is Jays need to get ahead earlier in the game because as much as Stroman is better than Tillman, the O's bullpen is better than the Jays.
Northern Voice
Footballguy
EDWIN!!!
Also, would be off brand if I didn't note that Gibby was way way better than Buck tonight.
Also, would be off brand if I didn't note that Gibby was way way better than Buck tonight.
Northern Voice
Footballguy
So, Happ-Estrada-Sanchez for the first three games vs. TEX, I assume? Liriano stays in the bullpen for now (but damn he's been good) and not sure where Stroman fits in.
Cyclones
Footballguy
This really worked out pretty well for us.
Yes, winning the division was certainly preferable to the WC, but only because the WC game is coin toss - we are basically on equal footing now, and frankly I think we match up better with Texas than with Cleveland.
Having our 1-2-3 starters full rested should help. Our achilles heel this year has been striking out too much, and the Texas bullpen allows a ton of contact.
Jays in 4.
Yes, winning the division was certainly preferable to the WC, but only because the WC game is coin toss - we are basically on equal footing now, and frankly I think we match up better with Texas than with Cleveland.
Having our 1-2-3 starters full rested should help. Our achilles heel this year has been striking out too much, and the Texas bullpen allows a ton of contact.
Jays in 4.
Northern Voice
Footballguy
I think the Jays are a better team than Texas. Split in Texas vs. Hamels/Darvish and come home with Sanchez and Stroman pitching games 3 and 4? Yes please.
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
losing Osuna kind of hurts.
interested to see where the series price opens
interested to see where the series price opens
Parmcat
Canada: Beer, Bacon and Beavers
Losing him? Where was this posted? Gibby said yesterday he ma or may not be available for game one.....
Sounds like he will be on the roster.
Possibly Tepera and Goins not on it?
Peyton Marino
Footballguy
yep, premature on my part to assume. sounds like he's a go, but you can't be too sure with pitchers.
Northern Voice
Footballguy
He'll be on the roster but day to day from the sounds of it. I'm not sure there's any good reason (gambling purposes aside) for the Jays to tell the truth about his availability either way.
Bogart
Footballguy
Good luck to you guys.
Your team and your fans annoy the #### out of me, and I proudly wear my "Rougned Eats Free" t-shirt from Heim BBQ as often as socially possible, but the guys in here truly feel passionate about their team, and that's what it's all about.
Hopefully my team will finally get lucky and steal a series from you guys.
Your team and your fans annoy the #### out of me, and I proudly wear my "Rougned Eats Free" t-shirt from Heim BBQ as often as socially possible, but the guys in here truly feel passionate about their team, and that's what it's all about.
Hopefully my team will finally get lucky and steal a series from you guys.
Northern Voice
Footballguy
Either way, it should be fun, unless it's not.
Northern Voice
Footballguy
No Goins or Pompey on Jays roster. Goins is completely redundant with Barney there. Pompey surprises me a bit but I guess Upton Jr. sort of fills that role.
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
Dickey and Thole on the roster? 
leasesayno:
leasesayno:
Northern Voice
Footballguy
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
Except Upton Jr. is starting (at least today) so they have no speed off the bench. i hate this decision (the one to not have Pompey on the roster). How many "mop up" guys do you need? Loup must have compromising pictures of Gibby!
Parmcat
Canada: Beer, Bacon and Beavers
Northern Voice
Footballguy
Stroman or Sanchez game 7? 
Northern Voice
Footballguy
So, I saw some doom and gloom on Twitter yesterday, saying this is the end of the Blue Jays window (obviously because of Jose/EE/Saunders pending free agency) but I don't think that's anywhere near the case.
For next season, the entire rotation is back. Sanchez, Happ, Estrada, Stroman, Liriano. On top of this, Dickey is gone - Liriano in that place for the whole season barring injury is an upgrade over those 25 or so games Dickey started and beyond that, there is no need to carry the dead weight of Josh Thole without Dickey.
In the bullpen, Osuna and Biagini return, the team has an option on Jason Grilli. There has been some speculation the team would try to stretch out Biagini as a starter, which normally I would be in favour of but they may need him as a 7th inning type guy again next year. Brett Cecil is a UFA and I know a lot of fans don't like him but I love him and over the last 4 seasons he's been one of the very best LH RP in baseball. 2016 obviously was the worst of those 4 seasons but he still had a sub-4 ERA - it was below 3 in the three seasons prior though. If they don't bring him back, they need to sign a very good left handed relief option.
The offense is where there are some questions, no doubt, but the myth of this years team is that it was successful for the same reason as last years teams. It was not. Cleveland scored more runs than the Blue Jays in the regular season, the Blue Jays allowed fewer runs than Cleveland in the regular season. So the Jays offense wasn't great this year, it was good, but very inconsistent, aging and right hand heavy, which I expect will be addressed in the offseason by adding left handed bats, speed/on base ability and younger players.
Returning is the entire very good up the middle defence - Martin at Catcher, Tulo at SS, Travis at 2B, Pillar at CF. Donaldson is back as the team's best player by a mile (which he also is with EE and Bau on the roster). The corner outfield positions are in flux, though Melvin Upton Jr. is likely back (we'd all prefer Zeke), hopefully as a platoon or 4th outfielder. Smoak was extended as well, again hopefully he's a backup 1B/big pinch hit bat off the bench.
With the strong rotation, including a real ace in Sanchez and the combination of Tulo/Donaldson in the middle of the batting order and great defence up the middle, there is still a strong core here. The team had the best attendance in the American League and the best TV viewership in baseball by a mile, there is no excuse not to spend money. The Jays have also helped Rogers recover from their awful NHL deal, where they paid 5.2 billion for the rights to games that consistently get about half the viewers Jays games do.
Shapiro has said as much, acknowledging that winning has been very good financially for the team and saying that they likely won't be top 5 in payroll but likely will be in the 6-10 range. There is new management taking over the Jays side of the business with a shakeup of Rogers so there is a little bit of uncertainty there.
The ideal offseason looks something like this IMO.
1. Bring back Encarnacion
2. Get a left handed bat for the middle of the order (break up righties JD/Tulo/Martin/EE?) - can be a DH or corner outfielder
3. Get a high OBP leadoff hitter, ideally quick and left handed or switch hitter as well - likely looking at a corner outfielder here.
4. Sign a really good left handed relief pitcher and/or bring back Cecil - ideally both so we never see Aaron Loup again.
5. Bring in a decent backup catcher, so Martin only has to start 110 games and doesn't wear down so badly.
All of that should be reasonable with the Jays payroll and puts this team in a similar place offensively to where they were this season but hopefully more difficult to pitch to and strategize against. There aren't really many internal options. Pompey can't hit, Alford likely a year or two away, Tellez maybe as a 1B/DH?
**The wild card is an attempted at a Joey Votto trade, because he's left handed, from Toronto and possibly available but there isn't much evidence that he wants to leave Cincy or that Cincy wants to trade him or that he would want to play in Toronto - if that's an option, you pursue it because it would go a long way to balancing the order**
For next season, the entire rotation is back. Sanchez, Happ, Estrada, Stroman, Liriano. On top of this, Dickey is gone - Liriano in that place for the whole season barring injury is an upgrade over those 25 or so games Dickey started and beyond that, there is no need to carry the dead weight of Josh Thole without Dickey.
In the bullpen, Osuna and Biagini return, the team has an option on Jason Grilli. There has been some speculation the team would try to stretch out Biagini as a starter, which normally I would be in favour of but they may need him as a 7th inning type guy again next year. Brett Cecil is a UFA and I know a lot of fans don't like him but I love him and over the last 4 seasons he's been one of the very best LH RP in baseball. 2016 obviously was the worst of those 4 seasons but he still had a sub-4 ERA - it was below 3 in the three seasons prior though. If they don't bring him back, they need to sign a very good left handed relief option.
The offense is where there are some questions, no doubt, but the myth of this years team is that it was successful for the same reason as last years teams. It was not. Cleveland scored more runs than the Blue Jays in the regular season, the Blue Jays allowed fewer runs than Cleveland in the regular season. So the Jays offense wasn't great this year, it was good, but very inconsistent, aging and right hand heavy, which I expect will be addressed in the offseason by adding left handed bats, speed/on base ability and younger players.
Returning is the entire very good up the middle defence - Martin at Catcher, Tulo at SS, Travis at 2B, Pillar at CF. Donaldson is back as the team's best player by a mile (which he also is with EE and Bau on the roster). The corner outfield positions are in flux, though Melvin Upton Jr. is likely back (we'd all prefer Zeke), hopefully as a platoon or 4th outfielder. Smoak was extended as well, again hopefully he's a backup 1B/big pinch hit bat off the bench.
With the strong rotation, including a real ace in Sanchez and the combination of Tulo/Donaldson in the middle of the batting order and great defence up the middle, there is still a strong core here. The team had the best attendance in the American League and the best TV viewership in baseball by a mile, there is no excuse not to spend money. The Jays have also helped Rogers recover from their awful NHL deal, where they paid 5.2 billion for the rights to games that consistently get about half the viewers Jays games do.
Shapiro has said as much, acknowledging that winning has been very good financially for the team and saying that they likely won't be top 5 in payroll but likely will be in the 6-10 range. There is new management taking over the Jays side of the business with a shakeup of Rogers so there is a little bit of uncertainty there.
The ideal offseason looks something like this IMO.
1. Bring back Encarnacion
2. Get a left handed bat for the middle of the order (break up righties JD/Tulo/Martin/EE?) - can be a DH or corner outfielder
3. Get a high OBP leadoff hitter, ideally quick and left handed or switch hitter as well - likely looking at a corner outfielder here.
4. Sign a really good left handed relief pitcher and/or bring back Cecil - ideally both so we never see Aaron Loup again.
5. Bring in a decent backup catcher, so Martin only has to start 110 games and doesn't wear down so badly.
All of that should be reasonable with the Jays payroll and puts this team in a similar place offensively to where they were this season but hopefully more difficult to pitch to and strategize against. There aren't really many internal options. Pompey can't hit, Alford likely a year or two away, Tellez maybe as a 1B/DH?
**The wild card is an attempted at a Joey Votto trade, because he's left handed, from Toronto and possibly available but there isn't much evidence that he wants to leave Cincy or that Cincy wants to trade him or that he would want to play in Toronto - if that's an option, you pursue it because it would go a long way to balancing the order**
Eephus
Footballguy
It'll be a very interesting off-season. Their payroll this year was $135M (US natch) with over $100M committed already for next year. They're in a division with a couple of spendthrifts and a team with a comparable budget in Baltimore. Rogers will probably have to top $150M if they want to improve their lineup.
I agree their pitching looks pretty solid, which is a good place to be with such a weak FA crop of SPs. Encarnacion and Bautista are big bats to either resign or replace. Their best minor league bats Alford and Tellez are probably 1 1/2 years away. It was pretty much of a lost season for Alford, although he righted the ship after he got healthy
I agree their pitching looks pretty solid, which is a good place to be with such a weak FA crop of SPs. Encarnacion and Bautista are big bats to either resign or replace. Their best minor league bats Alford and Tellez are probably 1 1/2 years away. It was pretty much of a lost season for Alford, although he righted the ship after he got healthy
Eephus
Footballguy
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
Would like to see them stretch Biagini out but keep him in the pen for now. Use him how Miller was used in the series.
Northern Voice
Footballguy
It would be nice if he could develop into a leadoff hitter for the Jays. His biggest skills right now are speed and centre field defense. An outfield with him and Kevin Pillar likely doesn't make a lot of sense offensively (the same applies to Dalton Pompey and Pillar). I find Pillar super frustrating to watch - empty average, awful plate discipline, can't make a catch without making it look more difficult then it was - but I've also heard a case made that he was by defensive metrics the best defensive player in baseball, period this year (he was 2nd in UZR to Adam Eaton but Eaton moved out of CF, he was 3rd in DRS behind Eaton and Betts).
In other Jays prospect news, Baseball America released their updated Top 10 rankings for the team yesterday and bumped Vlad Guerrero Jr. all the way to #1, saying it won't be surprising if he's a major leaguer at 20 years old (he's 17 now). Alford was #2 on that list that looks a lot better than it did this time last year, thanks to strong seasons by most of the Jays top prospects. Interestingly, neither Reese Mcguire or Harold Ramirez who came over with Liriano cracked the top 10 - MLB.com has them as the Jays #4 and #5 prospects in its most recent update.:
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3b
2. Anthony Alford, of
3. Sean Reid-Foley, rhp
4. Conner Greene, rhp
5. Richard Urena, ss
6. Rowdy Tellez, 1b
7. T.J. Zeuch, rhp
8. Bo Bichette, ss
9. Jon Harris, rhp
10. Justin Maese, rhp
Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-toronto-blue-jays-top-10-prospects/#JwPYpMpPwD3XhSId.99
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Northern Voice
Footballguy
EE and Bats offered qualifying offers, Saunders was not. Other key FA's are Cecil and Dickey.
Shi Davidi is reporting tonight that the Jays are making a push to re-sign Edwin. It makes all kinds of sense to make him the top priority (he's younger and better than Jose) but it really makes sense for Edwin to wait another day and field offers from all 30 teams, even if he is serious about preferring to stay in Toronto. All that said, no one is better connected to the Jays than Davidi, so the fact that he's the one reporting this gives me some optimism.
Shi Davidi is reporting tonight that the Jays are making a push to re-sign Edwin. It makes all kinds of sense to make him the top priority (he's younger and better than Jose) but it really makes sense for Edwin to wait another day and field offers from all 30 teams, even if he is serious about preferring to stay in Toronto. All that said, no one is better connected to the Jays than Davidi, so the fact that he's the one reporting this gives me some optimism.
Northern Voice
Footballguy
Northern Voice
Footballguy
Blue Jays sign Cuban Lourdes Guerriel Jr. 7 year/22M.
From what I can see no real downside for this and some good upside.
From what I can see no real downside for this and some good upside.
Northern Voice
Footballguy
Kendrys Morales 3 years, 33 million. Switch hitter in the middle of the lineup, so he makes a lot of sense roster construction wise but he ain't Edwin.
Eephus
Footballguy
I don't like the timing of the Morales deal. I don't think that's the kind of signing you make early in the cycle. His options in the FA market are very limited. Only a fraction of AL clubs have a need for a DH in decline and it seems like you could certainly wait until January when it'll be more of a buyer's market. $11M isn't ton of money in today's game but the contract will probably be an albatross by 2019 when Kendrys is 36.
Northern Voice
Footballguy
This is quite a post from 2010.
Jays top prospects 5 years ago were:
Travis d'Arnaud
Anthony Gose
Deck McGuire
Jake Marisnick
Drew Hutchison
Carlos Perez
Aaron Sanchez
Adieny Hechavarria
Asher Wojoiechowski
Justin Nicolino
Sanchez the only one that remains and also the one you would want to keep from the group (though only because Syndergaard didn't crack the list back then).
