*Official* - Jeremy Langford (1 Viewer)

[JuniorNB]

What, if anything, are you all trading to let go of Langford? Seems to me that if you're selling, his value cannot get much higher than it is right now (for 2015). Even after another solid game, "buying" owners will start using Forte's alleged Week 11 return as a reason to drive down the price.

That said, I think we're discussing a top 5 2016 rookie pick, plus a top 10 veteran at a position of need. Alternatively, I really need to get a TE in my dynasty league, so I'd consider moving Langford for Eifert or Kelce (we're a 12 team league, PPR, keep 8). Langford's current value strikes me as being as high as Ameer Abdullah's was after a crazy good Week 1. But Langford looks like a better all around back on a better all around offense. Small sample size, so forgive the possible hyperbole.

Thoughts?

Just received interest for him (or Woodhead) in ppr redraft. Other owner is 8-1 and stacked at WR but lost Lewis and Foster. Thinking of offering Langford for AJ Green.

Unless it's announced that Forte is out for the season, I can't imagine him giving up a top receiver. Langford's value in a redraft is 100% tied to how long Forte is out. The best Langford can wish for then is a 50-50 split.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think it is up to Forte if he wants to re-sign with the Bears or not. I don't know what his feelings about that are.

I could definitely see Forte not being re-signed for whatever reason and Langford getting the opportunity to be their feature RB.

The thing that I take issue with is describing Forte as a replaceable player soon to decline. I also do not think it would be a dumb move on the Bears part to try to retain him.

I don't think it will be up to Forte. He's got one more good year left. Just makes sense for both sides for that to be with a contending team. Similar to the Gore situation from last year. Just comes down to him having more value to another team.

Maybe the Bears think they will be a contending team next year? Most NFL teams don't think the way dynasty fantasy football players think.

 

[JuniorNB]

I think it is up to Forte if he wants to re-sign with the Bears or not. I don't know what his feelings about that are.

I could definitely see Forte not being re-signed for whatever reason and Langford getting the opportunity to be their feature RB.

The thing that I take issue with is describing Forte as a replaceable player soon to decline. I also do not think it would be a dumb move on the Bears part to try to retain him.

I don't think it will be up to Forte. He's got one more good year left. Just makes sense for both sides for that to be with a contending team. Similar to the Gore situation from last year. Just comes down to him having more value to another team.

Maybe the Bears think they will be a contending team next year? Most NFL teams don't think the way dynasty fantasy football players think.

I don't think the Bears would have dumped Brandon Marshall and Jarred Allen if they weren't in somewhat of a rebuilding mode. They were shopping Forte before his injury. And now with Langford looking like he could step right in, I can't se them spending money on a 30 year old back.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think it is up to Forte if he wants to re-sign with the Bears or not. I don't know what his feelings about that are.

I could definitely see Forte not being re-signed for whatever reason and Langford getting the opportunity to be their feature RB.

The thing that I take issue with is describing Forte as a replaceable player soon to decline. I also do not think it would be a dumb move on the Bears part to try to retain him.

I don't think it will be up to Forte. He's got one more good year left. Just makes sense for both sides for that to be with a contending team. Similar to the Gore situation from last year. Just comes down to him having more value to another team.

Maybe the Bears think they will be a contending team next year? Most NFL teams don't think the way dynasty fantasy football players think.

I don't think the Bears would have dumped Brandon Marshall and Jarred Allen if they weren't in somewhat of a rebuilding mode. They were shopping Forte before his injury. And now with Langford looking like he could step right in, I can't se them spending money on a 30 year old back.

I don't think they will (or should) necessarily either, but I wouldn't be surprised by it.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Before the season began I took a flyer on CHI rookie RB Jeremy Langford based on him possibly taking over the starting job in 2016 when I took a long look at starter Matt Forte.

I found Matt has been very durable having only missed 5 games in his previous 7 seasons before this current injury. Also he's been highly productive but lots of metrics pointed to him slowing down this year because he was about to cross the 2,000 carry barrier (1,953 before he injured his knee, right at the barrier when backs traditionally break down).

Then the year began and Forte stated out like a house a-fire with 24 carries for 141 yards (5.9 yards per carry) 1 rushing score and 5 receptions for 25 yards.

After the opener Forte's average per carry has dropped from 5.9 to 3.62 per carry and seemed to be trending down before he got injured.

Games 1 thru 7

1 - 5.9 yards per carry

2 - 4.1 YPC

3 - 3.7 YPC

4 - 3.6 YPC

5 - 3.9 YPC

6 - 2.9 YPC

7 - 4.1 *injured knee after only 10 carries

With Forte playing so well Langford didn't get many carries so in games 1-7 he only had 17 combined carries compared to Forte's 136 but in those first 7 games his average per carry was:

Jeremy Langford games 1 thru 7 average on his 17 combined carries = 2.96 and on Monday night on 18 carries he had 72 yards for 4.0 APC but the big positive was that in the previous 7 games Langford only had 2 receptions for only 31 yards and we hadn't really seen him pick up the blitz.

The big reason for optimism IMHO was that on Monday Night he looked fantastic picking up the blitz and had 3 receptions for 70 yards where on the wheel route he was used like a WR taking a deep route where he made a fantastic reception.

Really impressive.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/ct-bits-bears-chargers-spt-1110-20151109-story.html

...The rookie was equally impressive with his hands, turning three grabs into 70 yards. That included a diving 31-yard reception in the first quarter and a 23-yard reception to convert third-and-5 in the third quarter.

"He's dual purpose," Bears coach John Fox said. "He can catch. The (31-yard) catch he made on the wheel route, wide receivers have a tough time with that catch. He's explosive. He can take short runs into longer runs. And I thought he had a great night."

Two new things have changed for me since I first took a look at this situation.

After taking a second look Matt Forte 'might' have started his slide and Jeremy Langford looked better in the passing game, not just coming out of the backfield as a dump off but he was taking receiver routes and made two great receptions but he also looked great picking up the blitz, than I could have imagined.

 

[Biabreakable]

People keep talking about Forte being a 30 year old RB. Historic evidence shows that RB see a decline in their performance at age 30. However recent history has shown that 30 is not the end for RB. Especially very productive RB who have been putting up good numbers even in their age 31 and 32 seasons.

Yet what gets glossed over here is how good Forte is as a receiver. Even if father time causes him decline as a runner due to age, he will still be very useful as a receiver, and those players have a later age production curve than RB do. Forte is good enough to play receiver at a high level and is worth keeping for that purpose, even if the team has another good RB.

If Langford actually turns out to be as good as Forte, the Bears could still use both players on the field at the same time with one of them lining up more often as a WR.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

People keep talking about Forte being a 30 year old RB. Historic evidence shows that RB see a decline in their performance at age 30. However recent history has shown that 30 is not the end for RB. Especially very productive RB who have been putting up good numbers even in their age 31 and 32 seasons.

Yet what gets glossed over here is how good Forte is as a receiver. Even if father time causes him decline as a runner due to age, he will still be very useful as a receiver, and those players have a later age production curve than RB do. Forte is good enough to play receiver at a high level and is worth keeping for that purpose, even if the team has another good RB.

If Langford actually turns out to be as good as Forte, the Bears could still use both players on the field at the same time with one of them lining up more often as a WR.

Its not age so-much as age as it is

age + combined touches = drop off

...It’s worrisome when you see a running back post a 3.9 yards per carry clip, and mortifying to find out that his yards per carry average is dipping while his run blocking improved.

... Since 2000, only 20 running backs have accumulated 280-plus touches in their age-29 season. Of that 20 running backs sample, 13 saw their Rushing NEP per rush decline the next year, four had seasons ended by injury, and only three saw NEP per rush efficiency improvement.

Of the three who were able to increase their efficiency, none had as many touches (2,260) as Forte has accumulated over his seven-year career. In addition to the litany of bumps and bruises that come with 2,260 career touches, Forte had himself a workload at Tulane, accumulating 996 collegiate touches, a total only bested by one running back in the 2015 draft (David Johnson, 1,007 touches). Needless to say, a decline in rushing efficiency is on the horizon.

 

[Biabreakable]

I don't really want to go down this road about the number of touches a player has leading to their decline. When I have looked closely at this in the past the main correlation I found was that players who touch the ball a lot, tend to continue to touch the ball a lot, even into the later years of their careers. In fact a player who has touched the ball a lot is more likely to touch the ball a lot in their later years than a player who has not touched the ball much earlier in their career.

Matt Forte obviously very relevant to Jeremy Langfords opportunity but I wanted to add some comments here specifically about Langford himself.

I only watched the two games on draft breakdown so that isn't really enough to make a good evaluation of a player. FWIW I had/have Langford ranked as a tier two prospect. Here are those:

WR Tyler Lockett 22 pick 69 Seahawks
WR Devin Smith 23 pick 37 Jets
WR Devin Funchess 21 pick 41 Panthers
RB Duke Johnson 21 pick 77 Browns
WR Jaelen Strong 21 pick 70 Texans
RB Jay Ajayi 21 pick 149 Dolphins
TE Maxx Williams 21 pick 55 Ravens
WR Sammie Coates 22 pick 87 Steelers
QB Garrett Grayson pick 75 Saints
RB David Johnson 23 pick 86 Cardinals
RB Cameron Artis-Payne 23 pick 174 Panthers
WR Chris Conley 22 pick 76 Chiefs
RB Jeremy Langford 23 pick 106 Bears
TE Clive Walford 23 pick 68 Raiders
QB Bryce Petty pick 103 Jets
QB Brett Hundley 21 pick 147 Packers
RB Javorius Allen 23 pick 125 Ravens
WR Justin Hardy pick 107 Falcons
RB David Cobb 21 pick 138 Titans
RB Mike Davis 22 pick 126 49ers
RB Matt Jones pick 95 Redskins
RB Josh Robinson pick 205 Colts
WR Ty Montgomery pick 94 Packers

The tier two prospects are players that I think have the upside to become a RB/WR/TE 13-24 in a 12 team league within the next 3 seasons. I consider all of these players to be similar quality prospects, they are ranked in the order that I would have preffered to draft them. Part of the reason Langford is a bit lower on this list is because he was 23 years old entering the league. When I looked at RB career curves earlier this year (see post 5), I found that 71.3% of the qualifying players were 21 or 22 years old. I find that convincing enough that some skepticism of RB coming in at age 23 or older should be given. The other reason why I had Langford ranked within this tier where he is, is because of Forte possibly blocking him from much opportunity in his rookie season and possibly longer than that if Forte is re-signed.

Here are some scouting reports on Langford:

What does Jeremy Langford bring to the Bears?

2015 NFL Draft: Jeremy Langford Scouting Report

I haven't watched Langford against the Chargers yet. I thought he played decent against the Vikings aside from the one bad drop of a pass that might have put the Bears in a position to win the game.

 

[BigJim®]

Jeremy Langford games 1 thru 7 average on his 17 combined carries = 2.96

Not that it necessarily matters, but just mentioning that when you are looking at YPC on 17 carries, it bears noting there were two 1-yard TD runs in that data. On such a small sample size, that will sandbag a YPC.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I don't really want to go down this road about the number of touches a player has leading to their decline. When I have looked closely at this in the past the main correlation I found was that players who touch the ball a lot, tend to continue to touch the ball a lot, even into the later years of their careers. In fact a player who has touched the ball a lot is more likely to touch the ball a lot in their later years than a player who has not touched the ball much earlier in their career.

Even if high usage leads to future high usage their is an unknown point of demarcation that every back who plays past that point will cross where we see a slide to decreased production.

The study show was prior to this the 2015 NFL season shows their were 20 RBs from the year 2000 who had 280 touches at age 29.

Forte turned 29 last December and turns 30 in less than a month and was on a pace for 280 touches so he fit into the study showing only 3 of the 20 had increased production at this point in their careers where none of the 3 with increased production had as many touches as Forte.

Noting that Matt Forte 'may' have begun his inevitable slide is relevant to Jeremy Langford in terms of opportunity as we saw an impressive debut when provided his first opportunity.

 

[Biabreakable]

It might be helpful to have a link to the article your referencing Bracie. The links in your post, one of them is funny and the other is about offensive line stats in 2013.

When a player is touching the ball a lot that is usually because they are very good. When the volume of touches is very high, it is pretty easy for there to be a decline from that volume, yet still remain high compared to other players at the RB position.

Matt Forte is currently 4th overall in total yards per game. When a player is this productive the team tends to keep giving them the ball.

Here are Fortes career touches by year (adjusted for games missed)

2014 368
2013 363
2012 292 (311)
2011 255 (340)
2010 288
2009 315
2008 379

In 2015 Forte has 136 rushing attempts and 25 receptions over 7 games which is 161 touches (23/game) on pace for 368 which is the number he had last season.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

Dynasty and keepers aside, who do you like more now--Langford or James Starks?

 

[JuniorNB]

Dynasty and keepers aside, who do you like more now--Langford or James Starks?

Starks, because he's won the battle for the starting job. It's his unless he blows it. The best Langford can hope for is a split when Forte comes back. Which could be next week.

Next year, Langford by a mile.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

It might be helpful to have a link to the article your referencing Bracie. The links in your post, one of them is funny and the other is about offensive line stats in 2013.

When a player is touching the ball a lot that is usually because they are very good. When the volume of touches is very high, it is pretty easy for there to be a decline from that volume, yet still remain high compared to other players at the RB position.

Matt Forte is currently 4th overall in total yards per game. When a player is this productive the team tends to keep giving them the ball.

Here are Fortes career touches by year (adjusted for games missed)

2014 368
2013 363
2012 292 (311)
2011 255 (340)
2010 288
2009 315
2008 379

In 2015 Forte has 136 rushing attempts and 25 receptions over 7 games which is 161 touches (23/game) on pace for 368 which is the number he had last season.

I snagged that article and the link on the first page and tried to re-link it but it went to a site that changes so unfortunately I can't help on that end but I cut-and-pasted the stats that showed 13 RBs of 20 with over 280 touches at age 29 had decreased production at that time. Of the 7 remaining only 3 showed increased production leaving 4 others who like Forte got injured.

So without knowing how this season will turn out Forte could show decreased production which was projected in the article before this season began which means the conclusions it was pointing to 'could' turn out to be correct once the season concludes.

Getting back to Langford. Just saw that of the 2015 rookie class right now the top TD producers:

- Arizona RB David Johnson ranks 1st and has 6 combined TDs (3 rushing, 2 receiving, and 1 return)

- St. Louis RB Todd Gurley ranks 2nd with 4 rushing TDs

- Chicago RB Jeremy Langford is tied with 3 rush TDs on only 50 combined touches

-----------------------------------------

http://nflmocks.com/2015/11/11/ranking-the-top-32-overachieving-nfl-rookies-of-2015/9/

Ranking The Top 32 Overachieving NFL Rookies Of 2015

by Erik Lambert

22h ago

​

#24: Jeremy Langford, RB, Chicago Bears

Selected: 4th Round

Is one performance enough to get a player on these rankings. Yes, provided it was really good. That is what Jeremy Langford did Monday Night in San Diego, doing his best Matt Forte impression with 72 yards rushing, 70 receiving, a touchdown and high marks for his blocking. He has three touchdowns on the season, tying him for third among all rookies. Considering he’s only touched the ball 50 times, he’s done a pretty good job.

==============================

EDIT: From the above article I thought you might find this of interest in this part of a reply you made in an above post, here is who they rank as the #1 Over Achieving rookie from this draft class>>>​​

FWIW I had/have Langford ranked as a tier two prospect. Here are those:

WR Tyler Lockett 22 pick 69 Seahawks

http://nflmocks.com/2015/11/11/ranking-the-top-32-overachieving-nfl-rookies-of-2015/32/​

#1: Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle SeahawksSelected: 3rd Round

The Seahawks actually traded up a long way in order for the chance to draft Tyler Lockett and it’s becoming easy to understand why. Though somewhat undersized, the Kansas State receiver has become a dynamic weapon who can hurt opponents both on offense and special teams. Not only does he have 20 catches for 253 yards and a touchdown, he also has 551 total return yards with a kick return touchdown and a punt return touchdown.

 

[BigJim®]

Dynasty and keepers aside, who do you like more now--Langford or James Starks?

Starks, because he's won the battle for the starting job. It's his unless he blows it. The best Langford can hope for is a split when Forte comes back. Which could be next week.

Next year, Langford by a mile.

I like Langford and Starks but in a dynasty/keeper I'm not sure I agree the odds are greater that Starks holds off Lacy than Langford benefits from Forte FA (or merely Forte aging while remaining with the Bears). This Packers situation seems like more of a motivational play.

 

[Tool]

Forte is still decent and he is a good receiver but last year his yards/ carry dropped to 3.9 and this year its at 4.0, and 3.6 since the first game. I'd be pretty surprised if they brought him back but we'll just have to wait and see.

 

[flapgreen]

Now he's only decent?

 

[Jimbo Slice]

If this wasn't a fox team I'd be worried about forte playing this week. But it's a fox team and I assume fortes still hurt so Langford still a go

 

[Faust]

Vahey's Scouting Notebook: Langford Replacing Forte, Watkins Resurgence, and Power Rankings

 

[Tool]

Now he's only decent?

Yes. What's your point?

 

[flapgreen]

Now he's only decent?

Yes. What's your point?

I get where you're coming from. You're probably a Langford owner and influenced by that. You look at a few numbers on Forte, likely without watching any Bears games or knowing the situation of the team, and think you can classify Forte as "decent." Forte isn't just decent, brah.

 

[JuniorNB]

Now he's only decent?

Yes. What's your point?

I get where you're coming from. You're probably a Langford owner and influenced by that. You look at a few numbers on Forte, likely without watching any Bears games or knowing the situation of the team, and think you can classify Forte as "decent." Forte isn't just decent, brah.

Forte is a good back. I'm not sure he's any better than Langford at this point in his career, though. And he certainly won't be in two years. Forte's 3.6 ypc since week one can't be ignored. Not when Langford stepped in and looked so good. I really can't see the Bears resigning Forte. Not unless he takes a huge hometown discount. They have so many issues that need to be addressed that signing an aging running back when they have his replacement, just seems ridiculous.

 

[chad in Indy]

Now he's only decent?

Yes. What's your point?

I get where you're coming from. You're probably a Langford owner and influenced by that. You look at a few numbers on Forte, likely without watching any Bears games or knowing the situation of the team, and think you can classify Forte as "decent." Forte isn't just decent, brah.

Forte is a good back. I'm not sure he's any better than Langford at this point in his career, though. And he certainly won't be in two years. Forte's 3.6 ypc since week one can't be ignored. Not when Langford stepped in and looked so good. I really can't see the Bears resigning Forte. Not unless he takes a huge hometown discount. They have so many issues that need to be addressed that signing an aging running back when they have his replacement, just seems ridiculous.

I'm not sure Langford's 4.0 ypc against the pitiful Chargers is something to brag about either. But, I thought Langford looked more then capable of handling the load, was excellent on blitz pickups, and made smart decisions running the ball. This week will be much more telling facing a tough Rams D. If he plays well this week, I think the Bears will be moving on from Forte. And I don't expect a lot of yds, but more of just playing smart again, handling his blocking assignments, etc.

 

[Tool]

Now he's only decent?

Yes. What's your point?

I get where you're coming from. You're probably a Langford owner and influenced by that. You look at a few numbers on Forte, likely without watching any Bears games or knowing the situation of the team, and think you can classify Forte as "decent." Forte isn't just decent, brah.

What the hell is a brah?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Now he's only decent?

Yes. What's your point?

I get where you're coming from. You're probably a Langford owner and influenced by that. You look at a few numbers on Forte, likely without watching any Bears games or knowing the situation of the team, and think you can classify Forte as "decent." Forte isn't just decent, brah.

What the hell is a brah?

its like a brohan, but different

 

[Deus Ex Machina]

Dynasty and keepers aside, who do you like more now--Langford or James Starks?

Langford. Starks is a good backup RB, but I think Waldman (or one of the other FBG) has watched his film and pretty well documented he's fairly one dimensional. Langford looks like a more well rounded back.

 

[Short Corner]

PPR redraft....was offered Boldin or Stevie Johnson for him straight up. Declined.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Forte reportedly had a 'limited' practice Wednesday but is dealing with an MCL injury and is questionable this Sunday so looks like RB Jeremy Langford likely will be used a lot and probably gets his second start.

--------------------

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000579243/article/bears-rb-matt-fortes-knee-injury-is-an-mcl-sprain

Bears RB Matt Forte's knee injury is an MCL sprain​

Matt Forte's right knee injury is more severe than the Chicago Bears originally let on.​

Forte confirmed Friday, via the Chicago Sun-Times, that the injury is an MCL sprain, the "same injury" he had in 2011.​..

 

[flapgreen]

 

[VikingFrog]

That was an awesome play. Turned little into a lot.

 

[beef]

if only his BMI was higher...

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Wow!

With 4:20 left in the fourth quarter

- 20 carries

- 73 rushing yards

- 1 rushing TD

- 7 receptions

- 109 receiving yards

- 1 receiving TD

Against the tough Ram defense.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Monster

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

beast

 

[Sebowski]

I might need to hold on to this guy in dynasty after all.

 

[althepostman]

So much for the bad matchup.

 

[Shutout]

Will be interesting to see his role when forte returns but, in dynasty, forte just got his walking papers if he didn't already know.

 

[renesauz]

So much for the bad matchup.

Right?

Traded him for Ivory this past week needing a RB ROS. Then read Forte is hurt worse than I thought, and this cat blows up. FML

I guess I can gain solace in the fact that I only used a fourth to draft him...so I got Chris Ivory for a fourth round rookie pick?

 

[Kwai Chang Caine]

After reading Bloom' s take on why CJ Anderson would blow up this week and the ferocious Rams D I sat him for Anderson. Nice...

At least now I know he's matchup,proof.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

After reading Bloom' s take on why CJ Anderson would blow up this week and the ferocious Rams D I sat him for Anderson. Nice...

At least now I know he's matchup,proof.

The Rams are such a strange team right now, hard to figure them out, but its the bears offense that's clicking

 

[flapgreen]

Please stay out for a while, Forte. I really need Langford

 

[georg013]

Move over Forte.

 

[richn]

At least 50/50 split even if Forte returns?

 

[flapgreen]

 

[ChuckLiddell]

Forte dynasty owner who does not own Langford...

Hoping Fox's typical deference to veterans comes into play here. Would be tough for any coach to not make this at least a 60/40 split one way or the other, which will crush Forte's value (and Langfords for now, but I dont personally care about that). Hoping Jerry Jones opens up the wallet next year for Forte. Thats a nice marriage on paper.

 

[Bojang0301]

At least 50/50 split even if Forte returns?

Depends. Fox used to be a RB hell kind of coach. Now it seems Gase has full offensive control. I would say Forte probably still gets lions share but has some of his production eaten into. At very least it's clear the Bears want to establish the run. Carey hasn't been looking bad either but lacks the chops in the passing game.

 

[Short Corner]

Forte dynasty owner who does not own Langford...

Hoping Fox's typical deference to veterans comes into play here. Would be tough for any coach to not make this at least a 60/40 split one way or the other, which will crush Forte's value (and Langfords for now, but I dont personally care about that). Hoping Jerry Jones opens up the wallet next year for Forte. Thats a nice marriage on paper.

Jerruh doesn't like to pay RBs

 

[flapgreen]

Carey has looked great!

 

[Tool]

"heir apparent"

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago-bears/post/_/id/4700855/five-things-to-know-about-bears-rookie-sensation-jeremy-langford

 

[flapgreen]

Please sit out one more week, Forte