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***Official Joe Biden Campaign Thread (6 Viewers)

Juxtatarot said:
There are recent polls of Sanders leading Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.  There's even one from October where he's leading in Ohio. 

Of course, it's early.  And, of course, polls will fluctuate.  And there is a lot of volatile stuff going on with the virus and the economy that can change things.  Plus there will undoubtedly be some other surprises. 

But what I don't understand is why so many people think these polls are so overwhelming likely to swing in Trump's favor.
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He jettisoned Florida last week. And most of the others are within margin of error. The Republicans haven’t even started going after him yet.  

 
Juxtatarot said:
There are recent polls of Sanders leading Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, and Wisconsin.  There's even one from October where he's leading in Ohio. 

Of course, it's early.  And, of course, polls will fluctuate.  And there is a lot of volatile stuff going on with the virus and the economy that can change things.  Plus there will undoubtedly be some other surprises. 

But what I don't understand is why so many people think these polls are so overwhelming likely to swing in Trump's favor.
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https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

 
Sweet J said:
Up until yesterday I was going Bernie.  But then one of his fans stupidly posted about his "student loan forgiveness" plan.  And I read about it.  Holy smokes that's the STUPIDEST idea in the world.  Made me mad just reading about it.  

Pulled this trigger for Biden this morning in VA.  
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That’s how I feel about child labor laws. A real slap in the face to everyone who lost an arm in a textile machine when he was 8. 

 
timschochet said:
No. While I don’t blame you at all for feeling that way, personally I never look at political issues in terms of fairness or unfairness. I look at them in terms of what benefits us best as a society. If I believed that forgiving student loans was a viable issue (I don’t) and that it would benefit society (I think I do) then it wouldn’t matter to me that it was a slap in the face to you and others. (Well, it would matter, but it wouldn’t affect my decision.) 
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Then why stop at student loan debt? Why not home loan and auto loan debt forgiveness?

 
Yeah, "I had to pay so we can't make it better for the people who come afterwards" is not a good look. By extension of that logic, we can't improve anything.

 
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Don Quixote said:
Yeah, Bernie worries me in on an electoral vote basis too.  Besides President, I worry about trickle down on all of the down ballot stuff -- Congressmen and congresswomen in swing districts, and state elections. State elections are  going to be particularly important on a national level due to redistricting.
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I read an interesting theory that voters will split the ticket b/c they wouldn't want the gop having complete control.   The theory goes that the reason the gop kept the house in 2016 is b/c most people thought clinton had the election won.   Personally, I have a tendency to do that when it comes to my house vote as I don't want the dems having complete control and I have always voted dem for pres.    It didn't talk about state level elections though so those still may be vulnerable.

 
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fatguyinalittlecoat said:
I'm not sure how much leverage you can get with just a little kid arm, might not be too bad.
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Depends.  We're talking about an arm someone lost when he was eight... before child labor laws.  So that thing's been preserved for a lot of years.  It has to be full of that embalming liquid stuff they put body parts in.

Did RHE just save one of those in a jar? Because this is sounding really creepy all of a sudden.

 
Henry Ford said:
Depends.  We're talking about an arm someone lost when he was eight... before child labor laws.  So that thing's been preserved for a lot of years.  It has to be full of that embalming liquid stuff they put body parts in.

Did RHE just save one of those in a jar? Because this is sounding really creepy all of a sudden.
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Yeah, I'm realizing that somebody that was 8 pre-child labor laws is probably in his 90s now.  Go gentle with the slapping everyone.

 
Henry Ford said:
Depends.  We're talking about an arm someone lost when he was eight... before child labor laws.  So that thing's been preserved for a lot of years.  It has to be full of that embalming liquid stuff they put body parts in.

Did RHE just save one of those in a jar? Because this is sounding really creepy all of a sudden.
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Listen, we’ve disagreed before, but when you start disparaging my family heirlooms, we have a problem. My great grandfather spent a lot of time and energy building the third—largest collection of Irish limbs lost to industrial accidents on the Eastern Seaboard. 

 
Ramsay Hunt Experience said:
Listen, we’ve disagreed before, but when you start disparaging my family heirlooms, we have a problem. My great grandfather spent a lot of time and energy building the third—largest collection of Irish limbs lost to industrial accidents on the Eastern Seaboard. 
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I knew it! You're not anti-child-labor laws for economic reasons at all! This is about Big Limb trying to influence the vote!

 
roadkill1292 said:
Yeah, "I had to pay so we can't make it better for the people who come afterwards" is not a good look. By extension of that logic, we can't improve anything.
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It's not just "I had to pay so I want everyone else to."  It's a horrible precedent to set.  Why are we going to encourage people to go to expensive schools.

You want to make all public colleges free?  Fine.  You want to clear debt of all public colleges?  I don't love it but fine.  You want to give the private school snobs who COULD have gone to public school but instead chose to go to a school 5x as expensive the "in-state" equivalent of debt relief?  Again, I don't love it, but maybe i could be talked into it. 

But Bernie's "plan" is 100% debt forgiveness of 100% of loans for 100% of people.  good golly. 

 
Sweet J said:
It's not just "I had to pay so I want everyone else to."  It's a horrible precedent to set.  Why are we going to encourage people to go to expensive schools.

You want to make all public colleges free?  Fine.  You want to clear debt of all public colleges?  I don't love it but fine.  You want to give the private school snobs who COULD have gone to public school but instead chose to go to a school 5x as expensive the "in-state" equivalent of debt relief?  Again, I don't love it, but maybe i could be talked into it. 

But Bernie's "plan" is 100% debt forgiveness of 100% of loans for 100% of people.  good golly. 
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I personally would only like to see free college to those in certain majors.   I just don't think we have the luxury of dropping over $100k on a liberal arts major.   

 
Juxtatarot said:
Is the point to show the potential volatility?  If so, I agree that's probable.
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Exactly.  In July 2016, polls had Hillary leading Trump by nearly 20 points.  They were statistically tied by September.

There is no point in even looking at head-to-head polls featuring hypothetical match-ups in early March.  Those polls are literally meaningless.  We would make more accurate predictions reading entrails than by examining that sort of polling data.

 
Joe wants to put Beto in charge of gun control? 

Not a smart move considering Beto's stance on gun control. 

Good luck in the swing states. 

 
timschochet said:
I don’t agree. I’ve been watching Biden in recent days give interviews and speeches, and my firm impression is that he sounds sharper and more clear minded than he has in months. It’s as if he’s drawing off the energy around him. I’ve made this comparison a few times before, but at the moment he reminds me very much of Ronald Reagan in 1984. 
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Makes sense.  Reagan’s mind was already mush by 1984, but he was able to rally in short bursts and put on a good show for the media.

 
Sweet J said:
It's not just "I had to pay so I want everyone else to."  It's a horrible precedent to set.  Why are we going to encourage people to go to expensive schools.

You want to make all public colleges free?  Fine.  You want to clear debt of all public colleges?  I don't love it but fine.  You want to give the private school snobs who COULD have gone to public school but instead chose to go to a school 5x as expensive the "in-state" equivalent of debt relief?  Again, I don't love it, but maybe i could be talked into it. 

But Bernie's "plan" is 100% debt forgiveness of 100% of loans for 100% of people.  good golly. 
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Is this more dangerous than Biden’s work selling the Iraq War?  Or shilling for law enforcement tactics that ratcheted up the prison complex and put tons of black men behind bars?  We could have easily afforded every stupid pet project in the world by not blowing 6 trillion dollars in the Middle East.  

It’s hard for me to reconcile voting against harebrained ideas with voting for real world policies that have destroyed millions of people’s lives.  

I don’t know, I get that it’s a personal decision and we all have our issues.  Just seems like that’s a rather inconsequential one versus their respective lifetime bodies of work.  

 
Biden supporters better hope Bloomberg stays in the race.  If not, the Sanders/Biden head to head debates are going to be like Young Mike Tyson v. anyone.  Biden desperately needs Mike around to attack Bernie and to cover his speaking time.

 
BassNBrew said:
Biden supporters better hope Bloomberg stays in the race.  If not, the Sanders/Biden head to head debates are going to be like Young Mike Tyson v. anyone.  Biden desperately needs Mike around to attack Bernie and to cover his speaking time.
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I'm not sure you want Bernie talking more than he currently does.  The more the field has thinned, the worse his performance has been perceived in debates.

 
Every single Republican scenario to win this year runs through Florida.  If the Democrats take Florida, it's going to be virtually impossible for Trump to win.

So conceding Florida by nominating Bernie seems like a strategically foolish move.

 
Florida
Pennsylvania
North Carolina
Arizona
Wisconsin
One of Nebraska's districts

Which candidate is most likely to win a combination of those six?

 
IvanKaramazov said:
Exactly.  In July 2016, polls had Hillary leading Trump by nearly 20 points.  They were statistically tied by September.

There is no point in even looking at head-to-head polls featuring hypothetical match-ups in early March.  Those polls are literally meaningless.  We would make more accurate predictions reading entrails than by examining that sort of polling data.
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Are these polls also literally meaningless?  What about this one?

I think they are valuable as a snapshot in time.  

 
NorvilleBarnes said:
This used to be true but I think those days are past. It's getting difficult to even watch him stammer and gaffe. He's not getting better, he's in serious decline. And we haven't even reached the starting line.

He was the "cool VP" to one of the most popular Presidents ever. Should have quit on top. 
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sorry, but this literally made me laugh out loud in my cube.  had to make up an excuse.

 
Obama going to sit this out or endorse Biden at some point?  I feel like that would just about put this one down. 

 
fatguyinalittlecoat said:
I don't know.
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I'd recommend thinking about it a bit.  In my opinion (and various Sanders supporters have conceded repeatedly) Sanders is going to have a very tough time in PA and FL.  I don't think they're very likely at all to go to him.  And there's really not much chance he wins AZ.  So that really leaves one path - North Carolina and Wisconsin.

Do you think Sanders wins North Carolina?

 
Henry Ford said:
Every single Republican scenario to win this year runs through Florida.  If the Democrats take Florida, it's going to be virtually impossible for Trump to win.

So conceding Florida by nominating Bernie seems like a strategically foolish move.
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Do you see Biden beating Trump in Florida?  I don’t.  Hillary didn’t either.  Not to say it should be conceded but main focus should be to reconnect with the swing states (and former Democratic strongholds) they lost in 2016.  

 
timschochet said:
I don’t agree. I’ve been watching Biden in recent days give interviews and speeches, and my firm impression is that he sounds sharper and more clear minded than he has in months. It’s as if he’s drawing off the energy around him. I’ve made this comparison a few times before, but at the moment he reminds me very much of Ronald Reagan in 1984. 
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I’d be on board with them injecting him daily with amphetamines until November 4th.

 
ren hoek said:
Do you see Biden beating Trump in Florida?  I don’t.  Hillary didn’t either.  Not to say it should be conceded but main focus should be to reconnect with the swing states (and former Democratic strongholds) they lost in 2016.  
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Oh, you mean like Florida, which Democrats won in 2008 and 2012?

 
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