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***Official Julius Thomas Hype Train*** (2 Viewers)

Julius Thomas emerges as new weapon for Peyton Manning

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. (AP) — The most intriguing new face turning heads at the Denver Broncos' offseason workouts isn't Montee Ball or Sylvester Williams. It's third-year tight end Julius Thomas.

The 6-5, 255-pound former power forward is finally healthy after spending the bulk of his first two seasons with the Denver Broncos dealing with a bum right ankle.

Treating every practice like it's game day, Thomas is finally flashing the skills that made him an attractive prospect coming out of Portland State in 2011 even though he had played just one season of college football.

Last week, he outraced the safeties and hauled in a 50-yard TD pass from Peyton Manning. This week, he stretched out his long, lean body for a one-handed grab in the flat before weaving his way into the end zone.

"It feels great. I mean, just being able to go out there, and run around, and feel healthy," Thomas said. "For so long, I feel like I was dragging a leg around. Just to go out there and feel like I'm playing at a high level, it's really encouraging and I feel blessed."

"I'm not surprised by what he's doing," cornerback Champ Bailey said. "He's been doing that for the last two years, it is just getting that opportunity to do it with the first team and getting some reps there. That is great because he has the talent. It's just all about learning how to play this game and the mental part of it. We've seen him mature a lot over the past two years. I'm looking forward to seeing him get more reps this year."

Thomas was a power forward at Portland State who was a bully in the blocks, swatting 62 shots and pulling down 520 rebounds while leading the Vikings to two NCAA tournament appearances.

But basketball wasn't really in his blood. He said he never quite felt like the hardwood was really his canvas, figuring he'd be more at home pulling down passes than rebounds, blocking linebackers instead of shots.

So, once he exhausted his basketball eligibility, and with one scholarship season left, he contacted Vikings football coach Nigel Burton about stepping onto the football field for the first time.

Thomas was a quick study, catching 29 passes for 453 yards and earning All-Big Sky Conference first-team honors. His stock soared at the East-West Shrine Game, where he captured the attention of scouts with his athleticism and grabbed a 5-yard TD pass.

That was enough to entice the Broncos into selecting him in the fourth round that year, hoping they'd discovered in Thomas the next Antonio Gates, who made a smooth transition from the basketball court at Kent State to the football field and became a perennial Pro Bowler for the San Diego Chargers.

Thomas said his basketball background helped him navigate the crash course of NFL football. He makes split-second decisions, deciphers defenses, anticipates the action, adjusts on the fly just like he did on the basketball floor. He said shielding a defensive back to give the quarterback an opening is just like posting up a player under the basket to give the point guard a clear passing lane.

But Thomas injured his right ankle on his first — and so far only — reception of his pro career, and after working out with Manning after the quarterback's arrival in Denver in March 2012, he discovered he needed an operation that sidelined him again.

In this era of ever bigger tight ends like New England's Rob Gronkowski and offensive mainstays like Gates, Thomas said he can fit right in.

"In my mind, I can do the same kinds of things they can," he said.

Thomas is getting more work than he expected this offseason, especially in the passing game, because Joel Dreessen recently underwent arthroscopic knee surgery and won't be back until training camp in late July.

"It's been a good deal for Julius in the sense that he gets more opportunities and more reps," coach John Fox said. "He's a guy that we have a good feeling about his abilities. Now it's just a matter of getting him in there, and this gives him a good opportunity."

He's making the most of it, compiling his own highlight reel of jaw-dropping plays.

"I'm proud for him because he came in and when he first started, everybody thought he was going to be a great player and then he got injured and had his ups and downs, but I knew he was going to be good, because he was a basketball player and most of the basketball players that play football can play," wide receiver Demaryius Thomas said. "To see him out here doing the things he's doing is amazing. I knew he had it and I just feel like he can help us out and is just going to get better and better once he keeps practicing with Peyton and everybody else."

Manning loves having another big receiver lining up with him.

"He's a great athlete. A big target. If you can't complete a ball to Julius as a quarterback, something is wrong with you," Manning said. "He has a great wingspan and great size and jumping ability. I think he's just continuing to get better for us."

Thomas made the most of his late start in college football and he aims to do the same in the NFL now that his right ankle is mended.

"It's been a frustrating experience but I try not to focus on that," Thomas said. "It's just about making it to the next day, the next play and coming out here and trying to improve, and really, that's where all my focus is now. I'm doing what I can to get better."
 
:virgilgreen:
Haven't heard a peep on him at all unless people are talking about how great Orange Julius is doing.
meh. i think he is a longshot to make the opening day roster at this point. he was good and/or healthy enough to get a little PT last year but it doesn't sound like he's carried that into the offseason. a shame, too, considering he was a good and productive college player.

 
:virgilgreen:
Haven't heard a peep on him at all unless people are talking about how great Orange Julius is doing.
meh. i think he is a longshot to make the opening day roster at this point. he was good and/or healthy enough to get a little PT last year but it doesn't sound like he's carried that into the offseason. a shame, too, considering he was a good and productive college player.
I think Virgil is more likely to make the roster than Julius. Despite the buzz coming in that he was a poor blocker, he's actually turned into one of the better blocking TEs on the roster, and he's gotten a decent amount of playing time (even if his receptions numbers haven't reflected it).

As I said, what I have heard is that if Julius impresses enough to make the final roster, it might not be at the expense of anyone- Denver might opt to keep an extra TE and one fewer RB. I think there's a solid chance that Tamme, Dreessen, Green, and Thomas are all on the opening day roster.

 
Rotoworld:

Broncos TE Julius Thomas saw reps with the first-team offense during the team's mandatory three-day minicamp.
After dealing with injuries the last two years, Thomas is finally healthy and has been a standout at the Broncos' offseason program. He worked with the first-team throughout OTAs with Joel Dreessen (knee) sidelined. Thomas, 24, was active for just four games in 2012. The Denver Post expects him to compete for playing time with "move" TE Jacob Tamme in training camp.

Source: Denver Post
 
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Seems like a safe pick where his ADP is. TE is a mess after Graham so there it is a good year to wait late and gamble with TE. Plus it gives you a really cheap in on this Broncos passing game.

 
From Lammey:

No. 80 Julius Thomas: Thomas was the star of the day. He was boxing out smaller defenders and showing off his downfield speed. Many of his catches drew “oohs” from the crowd at Dove Valley. He can line up in multiple positions and is dangerous when getting a clean release from motion at the snap of the ball. He’s finally healthy and could win the starting TE job if he continues to impress at training camp.
 
From Lammey:

No. 80 Julius Thomas: Thomas was the star of the day. He was boxing out smaller defenders and showing off his downfield speed. Many of his catches drew “oohs” from the crowd at Dove Valley. He can line up in multiple positions and is dangerous when getting a clean release from motion at the snap of the ball. He’s finally healthy and could win the starting TE job if he continues to impress at training camp.
Giggity

 
Rotoworld:

Broncos TE Julius Thomas is working with the first-team offense at training camp.
A college basketball player, Thomas is trying to hold off Joel Dreessen to be Denver's primary in-line tight end. Virgil Green is behind Jacob Tamme at the flex position. 25-year-old Thomas is an interesting NFL prospect, but not quite so much in fantasy. The Broncos will be a three-wide receiver team in 2013.

Source: Lindsay Jones on Twitter
 
Read on twitter from milehighreport he was practicing with the 2s today
Thomas is getting plenty of reps with both teams. The team is giving him a ton of looks with the 1s and the 2s. When practice opened he was with the 2s but when they went to live drills he was in with the 1s. This is looking more and more like TEBC on a team that has de-emphasized the TE position.

 
I understand that the Broncos are going to de emphasize the TE and that this yr there are far too many mouths to feed to expect much from Julius but why not have him be a huge part o their plans moving forward? Isn't one of the strengths that we keep hearing abt with this team the fact they can adapt to the tools they have around them? Isn't it at least feasible that Julius just blows by all of the other TEs and becomes a piece that is near irreplaceable? Not likely this yr but honestly why not?

Didn't Jimmy Graham come in as a project and was expected to get some snaps with shockey as the starter his rookie yr? That lasted how long? When Graham finally got it and took off with it how did that work out for the rest of the TEs?

I realize that the Broncos have more options than the saints had at that time and I'm not suggesting that Julius is going to be Jimmy Graham I'm just pointing out the possibility that in the near future or maybe by as late as next yr (2014) this TE by committee could be the Orange Julius show and the other TEs could just be along for the ride...

People keep pointing to dreesen's red zone prowess... Are they talking about his blocking or his receiving prowess? As a receiver couldn't Julius offer much more? As a blocker I'm assuming he can continue to improve right?

I'm tempering expectations from a numbers standpoint but I'm excited to see Julius play!!

 
I understand that the Broncos are going to de emphasize the TE
still not sure that's going to be the case--at least I don't see a conscious effort to de-emphasize the TE position in the passing game. Defenses are going to be hard pressed covering the 3 WR and Manning has seemingly always produced strong numbers from his TE. It won't be the focal point, but there will be points to be had from the Denver TE spot. And if Thomas is anywhere near as good as he's been this camp, there's a good chance he has a breakout year.

 
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some of my previous comments in this thread have been shtick, but this is not. I think JT will be at worst the #3 receiver on this team, ahead of Welker. In camp I saw them working lots of 2 TE sets, and saw it again in Thursdays game. The only drive they had any success on was running out of a 2 TE set.

I've been pretty adamant all pre-season that Fox wants to pass to get a lead and then run the ball to seal the win. IMO, Fox places blame on the Baltimore loss on not being able to secure a first down at the end of the game to close it out when they had a lead...so, they strengthened the OL by signing Vasquez and then got younger by drafting a RB early. That being said - it's easier to run the ball out of a 2TE set. So - 1 RB, 2 TE means that for large stretches of the game, there will only be 2 WR's on the field. Welker is the smallest WR and so he will be the one on the sideline. By contrast, JT will be on the field the whole game.

I understand Welkers ability to get open is pretty significant. However, JT will be a dynamic playmaker on the cusp of a breakout season. He's a huge target with great hands, just now understanding the nuances of the game. He will be involved. I'm thinking JT will catch around 60 balls this year, maybe 700-750 yards and a few TD's.

 
some of my previous comments in this thread have been shtick, but this is not. I think JT will be at worst the #3 receiver on this team, ahead of Welker. In camp I saw them working lots of 2 TE sets, and saw it again in Thursdays game. The only drive they had any success on was running out of a 2 TE set.

I've been pretty adamant all pre-season that Fox wants to pass to get a lead and then run the ball to seal the win. IMO, Fox places blame on the Baltimore loss on not being able to secure a first down at the end of the game to close it out when they had a lead...so, they strengthened the OL by signing Vasquez and then got younger by drafting a RB early. That being said - it's easier to run the ball out of a 2TE set. So - 1 RB, 2 TE means that for large stretches of the game, there will only be 2 WR's on the field. Welker is the smallest WR and so he will be the one on the sideline. By contrast, JT will be on the field the whole game.

I understand Welkers ability to get open is pretty significant. However, JT will be a dynamic playmaker on the cusp of a breakout season. He's a huge target with great hands, just now understanding the nuances of the game. He will be involved. I'm thinking JT will catch around 60 balls this year, maybe 700-750 yards and a few TD's.
Sweet! I'll gladly take that!!

 
moleculo said:
some of my previous comments in this thread have been shtick, but this is not. I think JT will be at worst the #3 receiver on this team, ahead of Welker. In camp I saw them working lots of 2 TE sets, and saw it again in Thursdays game. The only drive they had any success on was running out of a 2 TE set.

I've been pretty adamant all pre-season that Fox wants to pass to get a lead and then run the ball to seal the win. IMO, Fox places blame on the Baltimore loss on not being able to secure a first down at the end of the game to close it out when they had a lead...so, they strengthened the OL by signing Vasquez and then got younger by drafting a RB early. That being said - it's easier to run the ball out of a 2TE set. So - 1 RB, 2 TE means that for large stretches of the game, there will only be 2 WR's on the field. Welker is the smallest WR and so he will be the one on the sideline. By contrast, JT will be on the field the whole game.

I understand Welkers ability to get open is pretty significant. However, JT will be a dynamic playmaker on the cusp of a breakout season. He's a huge target with great hands, just now understanding the nuances of the game. He will be involved. I'm thinking JT will catch around 60 balls this year, maybe 700-750 yards and a few TD's.
That's an impressively thin limb you're going out on, and I commend you big-time for making your call without reservation or hesitation. If you're right on this, you'll deserve every bit of the plaudits you'll receive (and I'll be first in line to give them). With that said... I really do not see that happening. I would estimate the chances of Thomas being Denver's #3 receiver (barring injury, of course) at somewhere in the neighborhood of zero. Hell, I'd put his odds of leading the TE position in receptions and yardage and under 50%. Unless the injury is way more severe than advertised, Tamme is going nowhere.

With that said, I'm thrilled to have Julius Thomas waiting in the wings for the 2014 and 2015 seasons.

 
moleculo said:
some of my previous comments in this thread have been shtick, but this is not. I think JT will be at worst the #3 receiver on this team, ahead of Welker. In camp I saw them working lots of 2 TE sets, and saw it again in Thursdays game. The only drive they had any success on was running out of a 2 TE set.

I've been pretty adamant all pre-season that Fox wants to pass to get a lead and then run the ball to seal the win. IMO, Fox places blame on the Baltimore loss on not being able to secure a first down at the end of the game to close it out when they had a lead...so, they strengthened the OL by signing Vasquez and then got younger by drafting a RB early. That being said - it's easier to run the ball out of a 2TE set. So - 1 RB, 2 TE means that for large stretches of the game, there will only be 2 WR's on the field. Welker is the smallest WR and so he will be the one on the sideline. By contrast, JT will be on the field the whole game.

I understand Welkers ability to get open is pretty significant. However, JT will be a dynamic playmaker on the cusp of a breakout season. He's a huge target with great hands, just now understanding the nuances of the game. He will be involved. I'm thinking JT will catch around 60 balls this year, maybe 700-750 yards and a few TD's.
That's an impressively thin limb you're going out on, and I commend you big-time for making your call without reservation or hesitation. If you're right on this, you'll deserve every bit of the plaudits you'll receive (and I'll be first in line to give them). With that said... I really do not see that happening. I would estimate the chances of Thomas being Denver's #3 receiver (barring injury, of course) at somewhere in the neighborhood of zero. Hell, I'd put his odds of leading the TE position in receptions and yardage and under 50%. Unless the injury is way more severe than advertised, Tamme is going nowhere.

With that said, I'm thrilled to have Julius Thomas waiting in the wings for the 2014 and 2015 seasons.
yeah I know. I'm probably making something out of nothing, but there are lots of signs pointing in this direction. Obviously, I'm not betting any money on JT being the #3 receiver , but when I had this ephiphany, it was enough to scare me out of drafting Welker anywhere near his ADP, as well as draft JT a round or two ahead of his. I'm certainly not confident in this enough to say anyone should be drafting JT as a TE1, but I'd be pleased to draft JT as a mid-level TE2. He's a lottery ticket for sure, but I can envision a path for success.

Tamme is a good player, but he isn't nearly as exciting as JT. Julius has 2" and 20 lbs on Tamme, but moves much smoother. He looks like a WR. I'm sure Tamme makes the team - as does Green and Dreesseen. I'd say my odds on JT leading the Broncos TE position in receptions and yards at somewhere around 75-80%.

In my shallower leagues, I will be definitely drafting him late, as most guys not paying attention won't be familiar with him. I don't usually draft more than one TE in those leagues, BTW, I generally use the WW for bye-week fill ins. JT is a guy you can draft, stash, and watch blossom. Really, that's the play for redraft.

 
What makes you think Welker is going to be behind Thomas? If I was going to bet on which Denver receiver would fall behind him, if we assumed one would, I would bet on Decker. Welker will be the #2, and has a shot at being #1 in receptions. I'd be surprised with any other outcomes for Welker.

 
What makes you think Welker is going to be behind Thomas? If I was going to bet on which Denver receiver would fall behind him, if we assumed one would, I would bet on Decker. Welker will be the #2, and has a shot at being #1 in receptions. I'd be surprised with any other outcomes for Welker.
because he is the smallest starting WR on the team and will, therefore, come off of the field in running situations. John Fox likes to run the football. Broncos will have lots of 2nd half leads, and therefore will be running a lot in the second half, and running out of a 2TE set. This team will go no-huddle to prevent defensive substitutions, so once they start a drive with a 2TE set, they will stay in that and throw out of it as needed. That means that there will be big stretches in games where Welker will be on the sideline.

If you want to be running the ball and killing the clock, which guy do you want off the field? Welker @ 5'9" 185, Demaryius @ 6'3" 229, Decker @ 6'3", 214, Julius @ 6'5" 250, or Dreesseen @ 6'4",245? To me it's pretty obvious.

The only reason you would want Welker on the field in this situation is to force the D to play nickel and have one less LB on the field, but if you believe your TE presents a mismatch on the LB you are better off out of the 2 TE set, IMO.

 
What makes you think Welker is going to be behind Thomas? If I was going to bet on which Denver receiver would fall behind him, if we assumed one would, I would bet on Decker. Welker will be the #2, and has a shot at being #1 in receptions. I'd be surprised with any other outcomes for Welker.
It's how Denver structures its offense. It uses 1 RB 99% of the time, and alternates between 2 TEs / 2 WRs and 1 TE / 3 WRs. The in-line TE and the outside receivers play in both sets, with the only difference being a switch between the "move" TE and the slot receiver.

Joel Dreessen and Virgil Green are in-line TEs for Denver, while Jacob Tamme and Julius Thomas are "move" TEs. Wes Welker is the slot receiver. Unless something dramatic changes (such as Thomas getting snaps as an in-line TE- unlikely, since the in-line TE is infrequently used as a receiver in the Manning offense, typically being used as an extra blocker), then snaps for Welker and snaps for Thomas (or Tamme) will mostly be a zero-sum game. The more snaps Thomas gets, the fewer Welker gets, and vice versa.

As for playing Welker on the outside... it'd be a misuse of his skills, as Decker really is the superior outside receiver. Welker is at his best when playing in the slot, where defenders have to respect the possibility of him cutting either way out of his break. Welker's small contract reflects this- slot guys just make less than outside guys, so the fact that nobody was willing to pay Welker more than $6m means no one viewed Welker as an outside guy.

 
What makes you think Welker is going to be behind Thomas? If I was going to bet on which Denver receiver would fall behind him, if we assumed one would, I would bet on Decker. Welker will be the #2, and has a shot at being #1 in receptions. I'd be surprised with any other outcomes for Welker.
It's how Denver structures its offense. It uses 1 RB 99% of the time, and alternates between 2 TEs / 2 WRs and 1 TE / 3 WRs. The in-line TE and the outside receivers play in both sets, with the only difference being a switch between the "move" TE and the slot receiver.

Joel Dreessen and Virgil Green are in-line TEs for Denver, while Jacob Tamme and Julius Thomas are "move" TEs. Wes Welker is the slot receiver. Unless something dramatic changes (such as Thomas getting snaps as an in-line TE- unlikely, since the in-line TE is infrequently used as a receiver in the Manning offense, typically being used as an extra blocker), then snaps for Welker and snaps for Thomas (or Tamme) will mostly be a zero-sum game. The more snaps Thomas gets, the fewer Welker gets, and vice versa.

As for playing Welker on the outside... it'd be a misuse of his skills, as Decker really is the superior outside receiver. Welker is at his best when playing in the slot, where defenders have to respect the possibility of him cutting either way out of his break. Welker's small contract reflects this- slot guys just make less than outside guys, so the fact that nobody was willing to pay Welker more than $6m means no one viewed Welker as an outside guy.
If it's such a small role that is being divided between three players, does it not seem odd that the Broncos would pursue Welker at all? I would think that this is a signal that they think Welker > whatever 2nd TE they were rolling out (last year I suppose it was Tamme). Obviously Julius Thomas had not had his positive training camp at the time of the Welker signing, so maybe they were not counting on that (rightly so).

I'm not even sure what I just asked you, but I guess I'm asking is do you think the Welker signing is a sign that Denver is going to change anything re: packaging from 2012?

Also, do you do projections? What kind of season do you think Welker is going to have? I need to think about selling him maybe.

This is great info, thanks.

 
I know they've been working on 12 and even 13 personnel in practice at times, 22 personnel once in a while.

That being said, their base offense is 11 personnel (3WRs). I love Julius but this is a form of TEBC with at least him and Dreessen as your redzone guy and best blocker.

There's enough passes to go around for the big 3 WRs (with Decker's numbers being the most impacted by the addition of Welker). The TE is de-emphasized this year, and split two or three ways.

 
What makes you think Welker is going to be behind Thomas? If I was going to bet on which Denver receiver would fall behind him, if we assumed one would, I would bet on Decker. Welker will be the #2, and has a shot at being #1 in receptions. I'd be surprised with any other outcomes for Welker.
It's how Denver structures its offense. It uses 1 RB 99% of the time, and alternates between 2 TEs / 2 WRs and 1 TE / 3 WRs. The in-line TE and the outside receivers play in both sets, with the only difference being a switch between the "move" TE and the slot receiver.

Joel Dreessen and Virgil Green are in-line TEs for Denver, while Jacob Tamme and Julius Thomas are "move" TEs. Wes Welker is the slot receiver. Unless something dramatic changes (such as Thomas getting snaps as an in-line TE- unlikely, since the in-line TE is infrequently used as a receiver in the Manning offense, typically being used as an extra blocker), then snaps for Welker and snaps for Thomas (or Tamme) will mostly be a zero-sum game. The more snaps Thomas gets, the fewer Welker gets, and vice versa.

As for playing Welker on the outside... it'd be a misuse of his skills, as Decker really is the superior outside receiver. Welker is at his best when playing in the slot, where defenders have to respect the possibility of him cutting either way out of his break. Welker's small contract reflects this- slot guys just make less than outside guys, so the fact that nobody was willing to pay Welker more than $6m means no one viewed Welker as an outside guy.
That's something to consider that I may have missed... I have been assuming that JT is on the field in 3 wr sets, but you are right - its more likely Dreesseen is that guy.However, vs SF it was JT that was in on the first drive, not Virgil. He and Welker were in the same formation, JT had the first catch of the game, Welker was targeted a few plays later...so. I don't know.

This is something that bears watching the rest of preseason.

 
I know they've been working on 12 and even 13 personnel in practice at times, 22 personnel once in a while.

That being said, their base offense is 11 personnel (3WRs). I love Julius but this is a form of TEBC with at least him and Dreessen as your redzone guy and best blocker.

There's enough passes to go around for the big 3 WRs (with Decker's numbers being the most impacted by the addition of Welker). The TE is de-emphasized this year, and split two or three ways.
In 2004, Manning had 3 WR's put up thousand yard seasons. Outside of Harrison, Wayne, and Stokley, Edge had 51 receptions, and Clark/Pollard combined for 54 more. Assuming the second coming of Edgerrin James is not on the Broncos roster, there are enough balls to go around to make JT fantasy relevant even if Welker is the #3 option with 60-70 catches.

 
DEN was only 10th in the league in passing attempts last season. By all accounts they intend to run a more up-tempo O, and I would guess it would be reasonable to see another 50 to 60 pass attempts by Manning. If a guy like Stokley can have 45 catches in essentially 14 games, I can absolutely see Welker getting those additional 35 to 40 catches while allowing Thomas and Decker to get theirs while still allowing J Thomas to catch 50+ like Tamme did last year. The question remains whether J Thomad beats out Tamme, but given what we have seen so far I would guess Thomas is winning that battle.

I honestly think Manning can accommodate all 4 of these guys, and would guess given how well Manning and Welker are getting along and how much J Thomas is showing that if any player takes a slight drop at the expense of the others it would be Decker.

To think Manning wouldn't feed Welker and J Thomas when Ss will have to give ground to the outside and those two will create a tiered matchup nightmare in the middle of the field that opposing teams won't be able to defend except in pass prevent formations when they are on the field together seems like an odd line of thinking to me.

 
The good thing is Manning is going to throw to whoever is open. He will use all his options without regard to who is target number 1,2,3.....I just hope thomas has a hard head because Manning would run his TE into a tree if he had to to complete a pass.

 
I went and watched the team today. Unfortunately I had crap seats and was blocked by players much of the time. I did get to see JT make some nice catches today, though. It was an off day for the passing offense, imo. But JT looked nice. He was the best TE in the passing game - except I couldn't see a lot of his blocking.

 
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I think people projecting Thomas to be fantasy worthy this year don't really get how things work statistically. DEN is very unlikely to have FOUR viable fantasy receiving threats on the same team (unless you think the Big 3 are not really going to be the Big 3).

If we conclude that Thomas is going to be the primary TE this year (which I am not ready to concede, not even a little bit, but let's say he is), the numbers of the player with the 4th most receptions each year with Manning at QB has been mostly disappointing.

12 Stokley 45-544-5

10 Collie 58-649-8

09 Addai 51-336-3

08 Gonzolez 57-664-4

07 Gonzalez 37-576-3

06 Utecht 37-377-0

05 Stokley 41-543-1

04 James 51-483-0

03 Pollard 40-451-3

02 Ismail 44-462-3

01 Rhodes 34-224-0

00 Dilger 47-538-3

99 Dilger 40-479-2

98 Small 45-681-7

It took 679 passing attempts for Collie to do as well as he did in 2010. Most other years, the 4th option was a big yawn.

As for Thomas for this year, I expect he will be part of a rotation at TE, so I am not convinced he would even have the 4th most receptions on the team this year.

 
I doubt that JT will be a fantasy stud in 2013. But in TE-friendly deep leagues such as FPC and FFPC (1.5 ppr), he's definitely worth monitoring as a potential bye-week fill-in.

 
What makes you think Welker is going to be behind Thomas? If I was going to bet on which Denver receiver would fall behind him, if we assumed one would, I would bet on Decker. Welker will be the #2, and has a shot at being #1 in receptions. I'd be surprised with any other outcomes for Welker.
It's how Denver structures its offense. It uses 1 RB 99% of the time, and alternates between 2 TEs / 2 WRs and 1 TE / 3 WRs. The in-line TE and the outside receivers play in both sets, with the only difference being a switch between the "move" TE and the slot receiver.

Joel Dreessen and Virgil Green are in-line TEs for Denver, while Jacob Tamme and Julius Thomas are "move" TEs. Wes Welker is the slot receiver. Unless something dramatic changes (such as Thomas getting snaps as an in-line TE- unlikely, since the in-line TE is infrequently used as a receiver in the Manning offense, typically being used as an extra blocker), then snaps for Welker and snaps for Thomas (or Tamme) will mostly be a zero-sum game. The more snaps Thomas gets, the fewer Welker gets, and vice versa.

As for playing Welker on the outside... it'd be a misuse of his skills, as Decker really is the superior outside receiver. Welker is at his best when playing in the slot, where defenders have to respect the possibility of him cutting either way out of his break. Welker's small contract reflects this- slot guys just make less than outside guys, so the fact that nobody was willing to pay Welker more than $6m means no one viewed Welker as an outside guy.
If it's such a small role that is being divided between three players, does it not seem odd that the Broncos would pursue Welker at all? I would think that this is a signal that they think Welker > whatever 2nd TE they were rolling out (last year I suppose it was Tamme). Obviously Julius Thomas had not had his positive training camp at the time of the Welker signing, so maybe they were not counting on that (rightly so).

I'm not even sure what I just asked you, but I guess I'm asking is do you think the Welker signing is a sign that Denver is going to change anything re: packaging from 2012?

Also, do you do projections? What kind of season do you think Welker is going to have? I need to think about selling him maybe.

This is great info, thanks.
It may not get as many snaps as an outside receiver or in-line TE, but it's not a small role; it's an extremely important role. Typically, seeing how the defense is playing that 3rd receiver or 2nd TE is the most important read for Manning when diagnosing the coverages. Stokley didn't have a ton of receiving yards last year, but he played a critical role in Denver's success. I would expect Welker to get a lot more snaps than Stokley got last year because he's a much better player (and, simultaneously, for Tamme to get a lot fewer snaps, because between the 3rd WR and 2nd TE, snaps are a zero-sum game). Still, Decker and Thomas are both going to get substantially more than Welker, barring injury. I would bet against Denver changing anything, packaging-wise. They're running the same basic offensive system Manning's been running for over a decade in Indy, and it's as vanilla as they come- no offense in the league features fewer formations or runs fewer different plays. The reason Manning's been able to run the same simple offense for over a decade is because it is brutally effective- it's so fundamentally sound that defenses can't stop it, even if they know what's coming. Welker already fits perfectly within the existing offense, so there's no need to shuffle anything around to accommodate him. I mean, Denver has been playing around with the pistol formation a bit this preseason, but that's mostly a cosmetic change- they'll line Peyton three steps back instead of under center, but everything else stays the same.

Also, keep in mind that Denver only gave Welker $6m a year. A big reason why that number is so low is specifically because the slot receiver position doesn't play as many snaps as the outside receivers. Welker's annual salary is the same as Brian Hartline's.

As far as projections... Decker might play more snaps than Welker, but I'd expect Welker to be one of Manning's primary targets when he's on the field, and I expect Welker to outscore Decker this year. Joel Dreessen played twice as many snaps as Jacob Tamme last year, but Tamme still smoked him in terms of receiving production. It's not just a question of snaps, it's a question of where you are in Manning's progressions in the snaps you get, and Welker is an ankle-breaker in the middle of the field. He's uncoverable. He'll be one of the first places Manning is looking. Maybe 80/1000/8 on the year?

 
Camp buzz: Julius Thomas a 'big part' of Broncos' O?

By Chris Wesseling

Around the League Writer

Excerpt:

Already boasting the NFL's premier wide-receiver trio, the Denver Broncos appear to be on the verge of adding another weapon to their first-string offense. Former Portland State hoops star Julius Thomas has been running as the first-team "F" or "receiving" tight end in training camp, according to The Denver Post, while Joel Dreessen battles a setback to his surgically repaired knee.

A far more dynamic athlete than Dreessen, Thomas will be a handful for defenses to cover with Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker and Wes Welker drawing coverage away.

"He continues to make plays in practice, and he made some nice catches (against the 49ers,)" Peyton Manning said this weekend. "So I think he'll just continue to improve and I think he can be a big part of the offense this year."

If Thomas wants to hang onto the job once Dreessen returns, he's going to have to clean up the errors he made in both the running game and the passing game in the preseason opener.
 
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Thomas's huge training camps means he's a sure thing to make the active roster, and maybe he gets a bigger role in future years if Decker walks and/or Welker's contract doesn't get re-upped, but I agree with Yudkin that I think it's far from assured that Thomas is the #1 guy this year. Again, Dreessen figures to lead the position in snaps played (provided there are no setbacks in his recovery), and Manning and Tamme have been playing together for a long time. Thomas is running with the 1st team right now because the two guys ahead of him are both out, but they both played well enough last year that neither one of them is going to be easy to Wally Pipp.

 
Joel Dreessen played twice as many snaps as Jacob Tamme last year, but Tamme still smoked him in terms of receiving production.
and still Dreessen had 5TDs last year

Manning had 37 TDs last year and logically we might expect that to increase even. Welker isn't a huge TD guy. Decker's 13 TDs last year can maintain? Sure, DT is one of the best redzone targets in the game but there will be enough TDs to go around.

I certainly get the pessimism in regards to JT - but the huge TD upside makes this a situation one we have to closely monitor considering where he is going in redraft.

 
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Well, just to call my shot for the sake of discussion, I'll throw my projections out here. The assumptions I am operating under are that Manning and the 4 players listed below all play 16 games and that J Thomas wins the top receiving TE outright. I also am expecting the up-tempo O to allow DEN to run approximately 70 plays more than last year.

That said, here's what I'm projecting:

Manning: 442 for 643 5144 yds 41 TDs 13 INTs

D Thomas. 102 catches for 1489 yds 12 TDs

Decker 81 catches for 1034 yds 8 TDs

Welker 91 catches for 1077 yds 8 TDs

J Thomas 56 catches for 582 yds 6 TDs

Rest of team 112 catches for 962 yds 7 TDs.

I think those work consistently

 
I was curious how Denver mixed and matched their WR/TE targets last season so I looked at total snaps for all of those players in 2012 as well as their targets and catches-

Decker 53 70 78 72 64 51 68 56 63 67 63 67 79 68 73 55 1047 snaps 122 targets 85 catches

DT 54 73 78 71 60 54 62 58 60 65 62 70 62 70 66 53 1018 snaps 141 targets 94 catches

Dreessen 50 57 50 56 43 39 67 47 46 48 43 68 59 68 60 62 921 snaps 58 targets 41 catches

Stokley 15 59 51 35 51 32 26 34 47 58 52 - 30 26 58 23 597 snaps 58 targets 45 catches

Tamme 48 25 56 40 43 36 25 28 21 26 23 56 29 11 27 34 528 snaps 85 targets 52 catches

I was a bit surprised to note that Decker led all receivers in total snaps. I have been projecting him to lose targets to Welker, I still think that happens, however I underestimated how often Decker was on the field.

Tamme was not on the field that often compared to Dreessen, almost half as much. Despite that he had more targets (85 to 58).

Where would Thomas fit into this scenario if he took Dreessen or Tamme's role in the offense? Or will that just be spread out between the 3 more?

Snaps for Green - - - - 1 5 34 13 10 5 - 8 14 43 10 32 were sporadic but did spike to above 30 3 times in 2012.

Thomas hardly saw the field at all I only counted 3 total snaps but I might have missed 1 or 2 somewhere.

I got the data from here- http://nflgsis.com/fset_Schedule.asp
 
I was curious how Denver mixed and matched their WR/TE targets last season so I looked at total snaps for all of those players in 2012 as well as their targets and catches-

Decker 53 70 78 72 64 51 68 56 63 67 63 67 79 68 73 55 1047 snaps 122 targets 85 catches

DT 54 73 78 71 60 54 62 58 60 65 62 70 62 70 66 53 1018 snaps 141 targets 94 catches

Dreessen 50 57 50 56 43 39 67 47 46 48 43 68 59 68 60 62 921 snaps 58 targets 41 catches

Stokley 15 59 51 35 51 32 26 34 47 58 52 - 30 26 58 23 597 snaps 58 targets 45 catches

Tamme 48 25 56 40 43 36 25 28 21 26 23 56 29 11 27 34 528 snaps 85 targets 52 catches

I was a bit surprised to note that Decker led all receivers in total snaps. I have been projecting him to lose targets to Welker, I still think that happens, however I underestimated how often Decker was on the field.

Tamme was not on the field that often compared to Dreessen, almost half as much. Despite that he had more targets (85 to 58).

Where would Thomas fit into this scenario if he took Dreessen or Tamme's role in the offense? Or will that just be spread out between the 3 more?

Snaps for Green - - - - 1 5 34 13 10 5 - 8 14 43 10 32 were sporadic but did spike to above 30 3 times in 2012.

Thomas hardly saw the field at all I only counted 3 total snaps but I might have missed 1 or 2 somewhere.

I got the data from here- http://nflgsis.com/fset_Schedule.asp
that goes into what Adam was saying above. Stokley was the slot WR, Dreesseen is the in-line TE and Tamme is(was) the move TE. Base offense is 11 personnel - 3 WR's. When the want to run the ball, say, 2nd half with a lead, they go to 12, and the move TE replaces the slot WR.

This is why I'm not high on Welker - he will be off of the field when they go to 12 personnel.

The questions are:

  • does Julius come on the field in 11 groupings? Dreesseen had 41 catches as the in-line TE. Maybe JT plays in-line a fraction of the time, and takes a fraction of those catches. Julius played in 11 personnel vs SF, by the way, ahead of Virgil Green, whom we all assume is the back-up in-line TE.
  • does Julius supplant Tamme as the move-TE? Can he stake a claim to last year's 52 catches?
This is why I believe there is room for JT to put up 60+ catches this year.

 
I have a hard time believing that the Broncos are going to forgo Welker and leave him on the sidelines for a player with 1 career reception (who could very easily be the third TE).

 
Joel Dreessen played twice as many snaps as Jacob Tamme last year, but Tamme still smoked him in terms of receiving production.
and still Dreessen had 5TDs last year

Manning had 37 TDs last year and logically we might expect that to increase even. Welker isn't a huge TD guy. Decker's 13 TDs last year can maintain? Sure, DT is one of the best redzone targets in the game but there will be enough TDs to go around.

I certainly get the pessimism in regards to JT - but the huge TD upside makes this a situation one we have to closely monitor considering where he is going in redraft.
Manning could improve on 37 TDs, but it's not a slam dunk. Last year was just the second time he had more than 33 TDs. Yes, Welker improves the passing offense, but you said yourself that Welker's not a huge TD guy. Montee Ball certainly is a huge TD guy, though- Denver's 12 rushing TDs last year were essentially league average, and they have plenty of room to rise.

Putting numbers to everything, I'd set the over/under for Manning's touchdowns at 36. Expect Decker and Demaryius to get 20-22 of them, give another 6-8 to Welker, and you've got just 6-10 touchdown catches for the rest of the offense. Dreessen is still around, and will still get 1st string TE snaps if healthy. Tamme is still around, and can easily improve on last year's 2 TDs. I just don't see where this huge TD upside is coming from for Julius Thomas. Even best-case, assuming he's the primary receiving TE over Tamme, I think 6-8 touchdowns is his ceiling. That's a very nice ceiling for anyone not named Graham or Gronkowski, but I'd hardly describe it as "huge TD upside".

I just don't see Thomas being fantasy relevant this year barring at least one, possibly two injuries to the guys ahead of him in the pecking order. Now, with Welker, Tamme, and Dreessen all potentially being stopgaps, and with Decker potentially leaving in free agency after the season, Thomas's future upside is huge. But in redraft, I can think of at least 18 guys I'd rather roster.

 
I have a hard time believing that the Broncos are going to forgo Welker and leave him on the sidelines for a player with 1 career reception (who could very easily be the third TE).
Welker will spend some time on the sideline, but not as much as Stokley.

Last year, Denver played about 1,000 offensive snaps, with the RB, outside WRs, and in-line TE getting a full set, while Tamme and Stokley split the last thousand between them 50/50. If Denver had about 1000 offensive snaps again this year, I'd expect Welker to get snaps at about a 2:1 rate compared to the second TE- so about 650 snaps for Welker, 350 for Tamme (or Thomas, if he manages to supplant Tamme).

 
Adam Harstad said:
Joel Dreessen played twice as many snaps as Jacob Tamme last year, but Tamme still smoked him in terms of receiving production.
and still Dreessen had 5TDs last year

Manning had 37 TDs last year and logically we might expect that to increase even. Welker isn't a huge TD guy. Decker's 13 TDs last year can maintain? Sure, DT is one of the best redzone targets in the game but there will be enough TDs to go around.

I certainly get the pessimism in regards to JT - but the huge TD upside makes this a situation one we have to closely monitor considering where he is going in redraft.
Even best-case, assuming he's the primary receiving TE over Tamme, I think 6-8 touchdowns is his ceiling. That's a very nice ceiling for anyone not named Graham or Gronkowski, but I'd hardly describe it as "huge TD upside".
Essentially best case was assumed in my post with the closely monitor bit

From what I have read, if he earns significant PT it will be because of his receiving skills (assuming a healthy Drees and Tamme).Those receiving skills aren't very similar to Dreesen, Tamme, or even Clark(as far as a redzone target).The window is small maybe but the TD upside is hard to ignore considering that skill set and the explosive offense.

Not everything has to be an absolute either way. Monitoring a penny stock with what some might view as high upside has value.

How is the monitoring going? Manning in only 1 series, his 1st preseason pass was to Thomas. Apparently Tamme is back practicing so we should know more soon hopefully.

this is from last week

Offensive Player of the Day: Julius Thomas

Thomas, who is getting extensive reps with Dreessen and Tamme sidelined, came up big on Tuesday, catching a touchdown pass during red zone drills and later coming through during the first-team's two minute drill.

During their two minute drill, simulating a game situation in which the offense was trailing 24-20 with 1:40 to go, Thomas moved around from playing tight end on the line to going out to lineup as a receiver.

After Manning's first down pass was batted down at the line of scrimmage by defensive end Derek Wolfe and his second pass was broken up by Bolden, the veteran QB turned to Thomas on 3rd-and-10.

 
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I have a hard time believing that the Broncos are going to forgo Welker and leave him on the sidelines for a player with 1 career reception (who could very easily be the third TE).
Would it make you feel better if they pull Welker for a guy 8" taller and 65 lbs heavier?Eta: guys, that's what we and talking about here. JT is 6'5", 250 lbs and runs like a WR. He makes Demaryius Thomas look small. Its the combination of height, weight, agility, basketball box-out skills, and soft hands that are driving the hype machine. Size-wise, he is a clone of Gonzo, and an inch taller than Gates. Just starting to come into his own, skill-wise.

 
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I have a hard time believing that the Broncos are going to forgo Welker and leave him on the sidelines for a player with 1 career reception (who could very easily be the third TE).
Would it make you feel better if they pull Welker for a guy 8" taller and 65 lbs heavier?Eta: guys, that's what we and talking about here. JT is 6'5", 250 lbs and runs like a WR. He makes Demaryius Thomas look small. Its the combination of height, weight, agility, basketball box-out skills, and soft hands that are driving the hype machine. Size-wise, he is a clone of Gonzo, and an inch taller than Gates. Just starting to come into his own, skill-wise.
If he were so superhuman, then why has he had one catch in two seasons? I still think he is getting more playing time and some buzz because Tamme and Dreessen are banged up. As far as Welker goes, I also don't think they paid him $6 million a year to take 1/3 or more of the plays off. So unless DEN is going to use a lot of 3 WR/1TE/1RB formations, I don't see them using the TE spot much this year.

 
I like Thomas as an upside dynasty stash, but totally agree with David and Adam that barring injury, he's not going to be worth rostering in redrafts.

My question is this: how is his blocking? If Dreesen's knee acts up again, and if Thomas can block, he might have a path to more snaps as the in line guy. If he's strictly a move type receiver, it'll be much harder to move past both Welker and Tamme to grab some PT this year.

 
^ RE: 1st 2 seasons

IIRC, Ankle injury, off season ankle surgery which led him to miss OTAs with a new head coach, QB and vet TEs

 
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