***Official Julius Thomas Hype Train*** (1 Viewer)

[Clifford]

For those projecting Dreessen and Tamme at 20 receptions or so, IIRC they carry roughly a $7 million cap charge to have them rostered. Why bother keeping them to basically sit on the bench? I would be more inclined to think Thomas will have a bigger role if the Broncos jettison one or both of those guys.

Similarly, for those projecting Welker for 60-65 catches, why pay him $6 million to catch 15 or 20 more balls than Stokley did?

Wearing my GM's hat, it seems like a waste of financial resources to have Thomas (potentially) take on a much larger role while spending $13 million to not fully utilize Welker and have Dreessen and Tamme not do a whole lot.

Please place the following events in chronological order:

1) Tamme and Dreessen are signed to contracts paying them $7 million this year.

2) Welker is signed for $6 million this year.

3) Julius Thomas has a break out pre-season that commands a larger role in the offense.

It's not like DEN can't change the current situation. Rather than tying up a lot of money between Welker / Tamme / Dreesen, they could trade any of them to pick up help at other weaker positions, add some future draft picks, or otherwise cut someone to just plain save money.

Certainly fantasy "experts" can be wrong just as much as the average bear, but at this point highest any of the 50 fantasy gurus listed at Fantasy Pros has JThomas is 10th this year. No one else has him higher than 17th.

How high did any of these guys have Alfred Morris or Russell Wilson last year?

 

[JohnnyU]

For those projecting Dreessen and Tamme at 20 receptions or so, IIRC they carry roughly a $7 million cap charge to have them rostered. Why bother keeping them to basically sit on the bench? I would be more inclined to think Thomas will have a bigger role if the Broncos jettison one or both of those guys.

Similarly, for those projecting Welker for 60-65 catches, why pay him $6 million to catch 15 or 20 more balls than Stokley did?

Wearing my GM's hat, it seems like a waste of financial resources to have Thomas (potentially) take on a much larger role while spending $13 million to not fully utilize Welker and have Dreessen and Tamme not do a whole lot.

Please place the following events in chronological order:

1) Tamme and Dreessen are signed to contracts paying them $7 million this year.

2) Welker is signed for $6 million this year.

3) Julius Thomas has a break out pre-season that commands a larger role in the offense.

It's not like DEN can't change the current situation. Rather than tying up a lot of money between Welker / Tamme / Dreesen, they could trade any of them to pick up help at other weaker positions, add some future draft picks, or otherwise cut someone to just plain save money.

Certainly fantasy "experts" can be wrong just as much as the average bear, but at this point highest any of the 50 fantasy gurus listed at Fantasy Pros has JThomas is 10th this year. No one else has him higher than 17th.

How high did any of these guys have Alfred Morris or Russell Wilson last year?

Are there enough balls to go around after feeding D Thomas, Decker, and Welker?

 

[Clifford]

Yes

 

[JohnnyU]

Yes

I'm just not seeing it. I'm not saying he won't have value, but his ceiling is limited by the fact that at best he's #4 on the totem pole.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Yes

I'm just not seeing it. I'm not saying he won't have value, but his ceiling is limited by the fact that at best he's #4 on the totem pole.

Assuming he starts, which is a debate of its own, your saying you don't see Peyton Manning taking advantage of a Jimmy Graham kind of athlete while coverges focus on DT, Welker, and Decker? At least enough to make him a top-12 TE?

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Yes

I'm just not seeing it. I'm not saying he won't have value, but his ceiling is limited by the fact that at best he's #4 on the totem pole.

Assuming he starts, which is a debate of its own, your saying you don't see Peyton Manning taking advantage of a Jimmy Graham kind of athlete while coverges focus on DT, Welker, and Decker? At least enough to make him a top-12 TE?

I've had OJ on and off the end of various dynasty rosters since 2011. I love his long term upside and athletic ability. That said, comparing him to Graham is going waaaaay overboard at this point. He looks good filling in thus far this preseason -- but realistically he's not a threat to get a ton of snaps this year barring injury. Dreesen (if healthy) will be on the field significantly more than any other TE due to his + blocking. Thomas might beat out Tamme for the majority of the move TE snaps, but even if he does, he'll be in direct competition with Welker for snaps and targets -- and it's a ridiculous stretch to think that he'll win that battle. I think a reasonable baseline is maybe 20 catches, with "upside" room for 30 if he cleanly takes Tamme's job. He's an OK last round redraft flyer IMO if Dreesen and/or Tamme are still banged up to start the season. And I love the long term upside here in dynasty with Decker approaching FA, Welker getting older, and the other TEs being just guys.

 

[Anarchy99]

Yes

I'm just not seeing it. I'm not saying he won't have value, but his ceiling is limited by the fact that at best he's #4 on the totem pole.

Assuming he starts, which is a debate of its own, your saying you don't see Peyton Manning taking advantage of a Jimmy Graham kind of athlete while coverges focus on DT, Welker, and Decker? At least enough to make him a top-12 TE?

The issue that I have been raising since the beginning has been that some people are allocating 270-3000-30 (or more) to DT-Decker-Welker while still slotting JThomas as a near the top TE (say top third in the NFL in terms of production). As I have already pointed out, that leaves bread crumbs for pretty much every other WR/TE/RB on the team, which just doesn't happen in real life. The only way that would have any chance of happening would be if Manning has one of the greatest seasons for a QB in history (if not the greatest).

This same phenomena happened last year when people were projecting Welker-Gronk-AH-Lloyd of the Patriots to have crazy numbers (like 275-4800-40 between them), which was also never going to happen.

My point all along has been that if if people want to slot DThomas with bigger numbers (which I am fine with if he is capable and wins the primary receiving TE job outright), then people will have to REDUCE the production of the superstar receivers. I DO NOT believe that the solution is to eliminate the production from the "other guys" while leaving the Top 3 WR numbers at an elite level. Something has to give, or else Manning will have to have a 5500/55 season to get the numbers that some people are projecting.

That is why I suggested that people make full projections, starting with a reasonable total for Manning and then reverse engineering a breakdown of how things will play out. Because if you start with the production of individual players, Manning's total will be inflated.

While people like to slot the mainstays on an NFL offense with the huge chunk of fantasy production, there ALWAYS are other guys that will get rushes or catches. Those guys will still get 10, 20, 30 receptions or 40-50 carries, etc. That's not going to change. What's going to change is the appropriation of production for the main players in an offense.

Take DEN as an example. Last year, the Broncos offense got 25% of their offensive yardage and 22% of their offensive TD from players not named McGahee, Moreno, DThomas, Decker, Tamme, or Stokley. That includes both rushing and receiving yardage. The non Top 4 receivers accounted for 126-1074-7. I would argue that on any team 20-25% of the production will come from depth players with limited fantasy value that are midway down (or worse) on the depth chart. That's why there are 53 guys on a roster. Similarly, teams don't only pass, so consideration needs to be given to coming up with a breakdown of rushing attempts and yardage.

So taking into account what is a reasonable expectation for Manning and taking out a reasonable amount for the "other guys" from that, that will leave the core of offensive production to allocate to the main cogs in the offense. That's how I would go about coming up with a team projection and offensive production breakdown.

Remember, the Broncos ranked 2nd in scoring and 4th in yards from scrimmage, meaning that they were already an elite offense. There's only so much more you can just tack on as additional production.

 

[swirvenirvin]

Peyton Manning 16 16 407 601 67.72% 4762.925 36 12 20 20 0 1.00 1 312.5 19.53Brock Osweiler 5 0 1 2 50.00% 15 0 0 6 -6 0 -1.00 0 0.00RB Games GS PaComp PaAtt Comp% PaYd PaTD PaINT RuAtt RuYd RuTD RuAve Rec ReYd ReAve ReTD Fum Lst FF pts FFpts/G*Montee Ball 16 10 215 865 7 4.02 18 130 7.22 0 2 141.5 8.84Ronnie Hillman 16 3 152 620 4 4.08 16 125 7.81 0 1 98.5 6.16Knowshon Moreno 16 3 60 255 1 4.25 30 260 8.67 2 2 69.5 4.34Lance Ball 16 0 20 82 0 4.10 7 55 7.86 0 13.7 0.86WR Games GS PaComp PaAtt Comp% PaYd Tot plys PaTD PaINT RuAtt RuYd RuTD RuAve Rec ReYd ReAve ReTD Fum Lst FF pts FFpts/GDemaryius Thomas 16 16 1 5 0 5.00 92 1425 15.49 10 2 202.5 12.66Eric Decker 16 16 1 6 0 0.00 79 1005 12.72 9 1 154.5 9.66Wes Welker 16 0 79 880 11.14 6 124 7.75Andre Caldwell 14 0 18 198 11.00 1 25.8 1.84Jacob Tamme 16 7 20 205 10.25 1 26.5 1.66*Julius Thomas 16 8 40 405 10.13 5 70.5 4.41Joel Dressen 14 7 9 90 10.00 2 21 1.50

Last year Tamme and Dressen caught 93 passes, now with Thomas in the mix you only expect 69 passes to TE's? I expect DT to get his but something has to give between Decker/Welker's numbers and the TE's.

Have to be in one camp or the other I guess. Without looking it up I think my Decker numbers are less than last year. And Welker only catching 80 is 30+ less than what he was doing before. Welker is going to take some of the TE production away, at least i think.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Yes

I'm just not seeing it. I'm not saying he won't have value, but his ceiling is limited by the fact that at best he's #4 on the totem pole.

Assuming he starts, which is a debate of its own, your saying you don't see Peyton Manning taking advantage of a Jimmy Graham kind of athlete while coverges focus on DT, Welker, and Decker? At least enough to make him a top-12 TE?

I've had OJ on and off the end of various dynasty rosters since 2011. I love his long term upside and athletic ability. That said, comparing him to Graham is going waaaaay overboard at this point. He looks good filling in thus far this preseason -- but realistically he's not a threat to get a ton of snaps this year barring injury. Dreesen (if healthy) will be on the field significantly more than any other TE due to his + blocking. Thomas might beat out Tamme for the majority of the move TE snaps, but even if he does, he'll be in direct competition with Welker for snaps and targets -- and it's a ridiculous stretch to think that he'll win that battle. I think a reasonable baseline is maybe 20 catches, with "upside" room for 30 if he cleanly takes Tamme's job. He's an OK last round redraft flyer IMO if Dreesen and/or Tamme are still banged up to start the season. And I love the long term upside here in dynasty with Decker approaching FA, Welker getting older, and the other TEs being just guys.

Athletically he's a poor man's Jimmy Graham. Just like you I'm concern about the compitition for targets; just like everyone else I'm enthused about him proving his potential in the preseason. Making projections for him is tricky, so just like you I'm more excited about him as a dynasty prospect. Welker vs JT I'd compare this to DT vs Decker or Reggie Wayne vs Collie. Possesion recievers and jumpball recievers work off of each other. Peyton's arm is getting weaker. If he's going to float balls like he did vs Sea this week, he is brilliant enough to throw to a receiver that will "go get it." You have to drill the ball to posession recievers like Decker and Welker whereas JT and DT have wider "bad ball" catch radiuses because they are physically bigger targets. If JT sees the snaps I do think we will see a shift from Welker to JT eventually.

The talent/upside is there, the offense is there, and the QB is there where a top 12 finish is definitely on the table. My only concern is the roster pressure at TE. As of now he's starting with Peyton, leaving with Peyton and being favored by Peyton. I move when things like that happen.

 

[FDC]

I DO NOT believe that the solution is to eliminate the production from the "other guys" while leaving the Top 3 WR numbers at an elite level.

I don't think hardly anyone expects Welker or Decker to maintain last year's elite production. Their ADPs have reflected that as well. Especially Decker who finished WR7 and is being drafted WR24 range.

 

[massraider]

Three WRs almost guaranteed to get more targets, and two vet TE that the QB trusts. Why would I want any part of that?

 

[cstu]

Is it too early to start referring to him as OJT?

 

[Time Kibitzer]

Three WRs almost guaranteed to get more targets, and two vet TE that the QB trusts. Why would I want any part of that?

Because those 'two vet TEs that the QB trusts' are both injured and mediocre when healthy. Not to mention Peyton Manning doesn't strike me as the kind of guy who gives a #### if you're a vet or a rookie, if you're open he'll throw you the ball. 'Trust' is essentially irrelevant.

 

[karmarooster]

Tamme is just a guy... you know what happens to just "a guy" playing with talent like DT, Decker, Welker, and OJT? Not much. Occasional targets between the 20s

Dressen is just a guy who can block who is also possibly injured. Dressen was just a guy next to Owen Daniels, and Jacob Tamme, so he's really just a guy. (He'll get playing time but only as a blocker and occasional RZ target).

Thomas looks beastly and has the same upside (mostly future looking) of a Graham, Finley, Cameron, Cook. Most likely... he'll be lost in the mix among all the WR talent, and to some extent the 'just a guys' a TE.

But if he catches a break and gets more targets, Thomas has the upside that is easy to covet in the 10th+ rounds.

 

[Clifford]

Yes

I'm just not seeing it. I'm not saying he won't have value, but his ceiling is limited by the fact that at best he's #4 on the totem pole.

Check out my projections a few posts up. If you assume a slight bump in yards for Manning, there are more than enough yards and TDs to go around, assuming Welker basically does what he did in NE, and Decker takes a step back.

 

[Pantherz]

To me this year the TE position is comprised of 3 tiers:

Tier 1

Jimmy Graham

Tier 2

Gronkowski

Witten

Gonzales

V Davis

Tier 3

20+ dudes

J Thomas is one of those 20 dudes, who IF he hits could be better than the average tight end. 1 team will draft Graham and most other teams just end up with 2 dudes hoping they have a decent year. Even the tier two guys aren't that exciting. Whether you take your "dude" in the 5th round or the 15th makes little difference to me. I will get one fairly safe TE and one flier, neither before the ninth or tenth round in a 12 team redraft. Guys like Thomas and also Sudfield are swing for the fence fliers that cost almost nothing. That could change in the next week but right now you have to hunt for Thomas on the websites to draft him. I hope he does nothing in the next preseason game.

This is being debated like you would have to take him with an early pick. I'm not seeing that, am I missing something?

 

[Clifford]

I think Davis finishes the year as TE2. JMO.

 

[Pantherz]

I think Davis finishes the year as TE2. JMO.

But do you see a big gap between TE2 and say, TE7? I like Davis more without Crabtree now, but I hate picking up a TE in the draft while the last of the starting RBs are going off the board(Rounds 4-5). Full disclosure, I'm a card carrying RB addict, but i hate my RBs when I take the early TEs.

 

[Clifford]

Yes. In fact I like your tiers just fine. Graham by himself, then the next 4, and a craphsoot after that. If you don't take a guy in the top 5 you might as well wait until the double-digit rounds.

 

[Hoss Style]

Two things:

First, some keep saying "I don't see how JT can get catches and TDs with the "Big 3"!!". Well, I'm with Clifford on this one. I don't think Decker is a "Big" anything. He was elevated by Manning last year because he had to be. He's a solid WR, and that's it, imo. Welker's catches will be reasonable but no where close to his NE days and DT will progress a bit. And with Clifford's permission, I'd like to post his quote from earlier about how the numbers might spread out.

Let's assume Manning has a nice season: 4900 yards, 35 Tds

Let's give DT 1500 and 10

Welker 1100 and 4

Decker 850 and 6

That's 1450 yards and 15 TDs left to spread around. I see no reason why Thomas could not get about half the yards (for around 725) and 10-11 receiving TDs. And that's leaving 725 to split between Hillman, Ball, and Dreesen/Tamme.

Let's pencil in Hillman for 300 as the obvious 3rd down back. Still 425 to distribute between Ball and the other two TEs.

Think a top 8 finish for Thomas is reasonable IF he continues his development curve.

.

So, now can we stop asking "How can JT possibly get enough touches!?!", because the quote above is a perfectly reasonable way that he can.

Secondly, there were some nice stats in an article today by Bob Magaw, here on the FBG website. (link - http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=13magaw_eartothegroundpre1 ) In this article he looks at TEs the last 2 years (2011 & 2012). In looking at them he looks at their age ranges while in the top 10 of FF scoring. Here's the list:

2012

• (21-23) - 1
• (24-26) - 2
• (27-29) - 3
• (30-32) - 3
• (33-35) - 0
• (36+) - 1

2011

• (21-23) - 2
• (24-26) - 3
• (27-29) - 3
• (30-32) - 1
• (33-35) - 1
• (36+) - 0

JT is right in that sweet sport for TE ages. Unlike WRs, the TE's don't produce stellar numbers in that youngest age bracket as often. It seems they need a year or two to "season" before they are ready. Maybe JT is ready? Who knows - but it's likely it happens this year or next if it's going to.

 

[Shawn]

Yes

I'm just not seeing it. I'm not saying he won't have value, but his ceiling is limited by the fact that at best he's #4 on the totem pole.

Assuming he starts, which is a debate of its own, your saying you don't see Peyton Manning taking advantage of a Jimmy Graham kind of athlete while coverges focus on DT, Welker, and Decker? At least enough to make him a top-12 TE?

. ^ this

 

[GoodLloydHaveMercy]

For those projecting Dreessen and Tamme at 20 receptions or so, IIRC they carry roughly a $7 million cap charge to have them rostered. Why bother keeping them to basically sit on the bench? I would be more inclined to think Thomas will have a bigger role if the Broncos jettison one or both of those guys.

Similarly, for those projecting Welker for 60-65 catches, why pay him $6 million to catch 15 or 20 more balls than Stokley did?

Wearing my GM's hat, it seems like a waste of financial resources to have Thomas (potentially) take on a much larger role while spending $13 million to not fully utilize Welker and have Dreessen and Tamme not do a whole lot.

To be fair the GM is making decisions based on a lot of assumptions... He has the opportunity to snag Welker at Brian hartline price and they don't know for sure that Julius is going to develop at that time... Key is Super Bowl so they need to surround manning with as many weapons as possible and feasible... That's why I don't think they get rid of one of Tamme or Dreessen unless they have to but if JT continues to develop it just adds more ways for them to attack and create mismatches... I look at this yr for JT similar to jimmy Graham's rookie season... They were hopeful he would develop and contribute but they didn't count in him early on as their guy... Through the season he proved his value and eventually became that guy that we see him as today... In a lot of ways this is like a rookie season for JT 3 yrs into his career... Lets see how he develops or if he can force the broncs to use him more as the yr goes on... I believe 2014 will be a huge yr for him but I wouldn't be surprised to see him carve out a fairly significant role as the season wears on...

48-60 catches for 600 to 700 yds and 5 or 6 TDs is my best guess... If the line struggles he may be used on dump offs a bit more often and maybe his avg drops below 10 yds a catch

 

[purestrength]

With Denver suffering so many defensive problems lately (Miller's suspension and injuries to Bailey and Wolfe), Peyton may need to pass more than ever early in the season, thus creating more reception opportunities. It may not be Orange Julius who benefits here. Then again . . . it doesn't take that much to find out in drafts.

That is, until he goes off this Saturday against St. Louis on national TV (as Welker sits out with his sprained ankle).

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

OC Adam Gase said TE Julius Thomas is "one piece of what we're putting together right now."
"We're still in that phase of figuring out who's going to be where," Gase said. "And once Joel (Dreessen) comes back, it's figuring out the roles of him, (Jacob) Tamme, Julius, Virgil (Green)." Thomas is the name to watch because the college basketball player's athleticism can go toe-to-toe with any tight end in the league, and he has a 8/105/0 line in the preseason. He just has to polish his game. Gase cited blocking errors, and Thomas has a preseason fumble.


Source: Denver Post

 

[gbill2004]

Dreessen will be returning to Broncos practice any day now. How does this impact JT?

 

[Run It Up]

Dreessen will be returning to Broncos practice any day now. How does this impact JT?

Should have a net impact of not.

Play different roles. If Thomas can pick up his blocking ability he has a chance to be on the field even more often. But he'll be on the field when it matters regardless.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

Dressen doing his thing is fine. Are we sure Thomas is going to be ahead of Tamme?

 

[Run It Up]

Dressen doing his thing is fine. Are we sure Thomas is going to be ahead of Tamme?

I like Tamme and I think Thomas will be ahead of him, pretty confident about it.

If you aren't confident yourself you could safely grab both.

 

[Cecil Lammey]

Tamme has been practicing behind Julius, so as of right now Thomas is still ahead of Tamme.

When Dreessen is back he'll work as the team's primary blocking TE and red zone target.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000232682/article/brandon-weeden-julius-thomas-among-11-training-camp-risers

2) Julius Thomas, TE, Denver Broncos

A former basketball player at Portland State, Thomas didn't do much in his first two seasons with the Broncos, catching one pass while playing in just nine games (including one start). But he's really taken off in the 2013 preseason; against the Seattle Seahawks last Saturday, he was targeted by quarterback Peyton Manning four times -- and came away with four catches for 70 yards. Thomas is a big, athletic player who has shown he can block and be an asset in the receiving game. His size (6-foot-5, 250 pounds) makes him a tough matchup for opposing linebackers and an appealing target for Manning. I think Thomas will beat out veterans Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen and slot in as Manning's fourth receiving option. Thomas reminds me of a slightly heavier Shannon Sharpe, someone who could finish the season with around 50 catches and a handful of touchdowns.

 

[moleculo]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000232682/article/brandon-weeden-julius-thomas-among-11-training-camp-risers

2) Julius Thomas, TE, Denver Broncos

A former basketball player at Portland State, Thomas didn't do much in his first two seasons with the Broncos, catching one pass while playing in just nine games (including one start). But he's really taken off in the 2013 preseason; against the Seattle Seahawks last Saturday, he was targeted by quarterback Peyton Manning four times -- and came away with four catches for 70 yards. Thomas is a big, athletic player who has shown he can block and be an asset in the receiving game. His size (6-foot-5, 250 pounds) makes him a tough matchup for opposing linebackers and an appealing target for Manning. I think Thomas will beat out veterans Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen and slot in as Manning's fourth receiving option. Thomas reminds me of a slightly heavier Shannon Sharpe, someone who could finish the season with around 50 catches and a handful of touchdowns.

50 catches and a handful of TD's? Brandt better post the rest of his projections for all Broncos players for the season and total numbers for Manning.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000232682/article/brandon-weeden-julius-thomas-among-11-training-camp-risers

2) Julius Thomas, TE, Denver Broncos

A former basketball player at Portland State, Thomas didn't do much in his first two seasons with the Broncos, catching one pass while playing in just nine games (including one start). But he's really taken off in the 2013 preseason; against the Seattle Seahawks last Saturday, he was targeted by quarterback Peyton Manning four times -- and came away with four catches for 70 yards. Thomas is a big, athletic player who has shown he can block and be an asset in the receiving game. His size (6-foot-5, 250 pounds) makes him a tough matchup for opposing linebackers and an appealing target for Manning. I think Thomas will beat out veterans Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen and slot in as Manning's fourth receiving option. Thomas reminds me of a slightly heavier Shannon Sharpe, someone who could finish the season with around 50 catches and a handful of touchdowns.

50 catches and a handful of TD's? Brandt better post the rest of his projections for all Broncos players for the season and total numbers for Manning.

Hahaha! I see what you did there.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Welker vs JT I'd compare this to DT vs Decker or Reggie Wayne vs Collie. Possesion recievers and jumpball recievers work off of each other. Peyton's arm is getting weaker. If he's going to float balls like he did vs Sea this week, he is brilliant enough to throw to a receiver that will "go get it." You have to drill the ball to posession recievers like Decker and Welker whereas JT and DT have wider "bad ball" catch radiuses because they are physically bigger targets. If JT sees the snaps I do think we will see a shift from Welker to JT eventually.

Not a great comparison. DT and Decker are both on the field at the same time. Wayne and Collie were both on the field at the same time. Welker and Julius will likely not be on the field at the same time. Welker is the slot WR, Thomas is the move TE, those two positions do not see the field at the same time in the Peyton Manning offense. The competition for snaps between the two is most likely to be a zero-sum game- the more snaps Welker gets, the fewer Thomas gets, and vice versa.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Dreessen will be returning to Broncos practice any day now. How does this impact JT?

Should have a net impact of not.

Play different roles. If Thomas can pick up his blocking ability he has a chance to be on the field even more often. But he'll be on the field when it matters regardless.

JT has been playing as the 1st team in-line TE during preseason. Dreessen's return means he probably reclaims that job, which will dramatically reduce Julius's snaps. And as I mentioned, Julius and Welker will be in direct competition for snaps, so I don't think you can say he'll be "on the field when it matters", because I'd imagine Denver would often want to have Welker on the field in critical situations.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Tamme has been practicing behind Julius, so as of right now Thomas is still ahead of Tamme.

When Dreessen is back he'll work as the team's primary blocking TE and red zone target.

Is Tamme back to 100%?

 

[Anarchy99]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000232682/article/brandon-weeden-julius-thomas-among-11-training-camp-risers

2) Julius Thomas, TE, Denver Broncos

A former basketball player at Portland State, Thomas didn't do much in his first two seasons with the Broncos, catching one pass while playing in just nine games (including one start). But he's really taken off in the 2013 preseason; against the Seattle Seahawks last Saturday, he was targeted by quarterback Peyton Manning four times -- and came away with four catches for 70 yards. Thomas is a big, athletic player who has shown he can block and be an asset in the receiving game. His size (6-foot-5, 250 pounds) makes him a tough matchup for opposing linebackers and an appealing target for Manning. I think Thomas will beat out veterans Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen and slot in as Manning's fourth receiving option. Thomas reminds me of a slightly heavier Shannon Sharpe, someone who could finish the season with around 50 catches and a handful of touchdowns.

50 catches and a handful of TD's? Brandt better post the rest of his projections for all Broncos players for the season and total numbers for Manning.

Hahaha! I see what you did there.

It doesn't change that pulling numbers out of a hat doesn't show anything. If he said DThomas, Welker, and Decker were going to each have 110 catches and JThomas would have 100, would that not sound odd if not impossible. If the other TEs all got hurt, then he could catch 70 passes. But I still say absent a much different outcome than expected that some folks have JThomas over projected.

 

[Run It Up]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000232682/article/brandon-weeden-julius-thomas-among-11-training-camp-risers

2) Julius Thomas, TE, Denver Broncos

A former basketball player at Portland State, Thomas didn't do much in his first two seasons with the Broncos, catching one pass while playing in just nine games (including one start). But he's really taken off in the 2013 preseason; against the Seattle Seahawks last Saturday, he was targeted by quarterback Peyton Manning four times -- and came away with four catches for 70 yards. Thomas is a big, athletic player who has shown he can block and be an asset in the receiving game. His size (6-foot-5, 250 pounds) makes him a tough matchup for opposing linebackers and an appealing target for Manning. I think Thomas will beat out veterans Jacob Tamme and Joel Dreessen and slot in as Manning's fourth receiving option. Thomas reminds me of a slightly heavier Shannon Sharpe, someone who could finish the season with around 50 catches and a handful of touchdowns.

50 catches and a handful of TD's? Brandt better post the rest of his projections for all Broncos players for the season and total numbers for Manning.

Hahaha! I see what you did there.

It doesn't change that pulling numbers out of a hat doesn't show anything. If he said DThomas, Welker, and Decker were going to each have 110 catches and JThomas would have 100, would that not sound odd if not impossible. If the other TEs all got hurt, then he could catch 70 passes. But I still say absent a much different outcome than expected that some folks have JThomas over projected.

I don't disagree he is over projected, but id say 90% of TEs are over projected. Im not taking JT as my TE1, im taking him as my TE3... taking him for his upside not his floor.

 

[Cecil Lammey]

Tamme has been practicing behind Julius, so as of right now Thomas is still ahead of Tamme.

When Dreessen is back he'll work as the team's primary blocking TE and red zone target.

Is Tamme back to 100%?

Nobody will tell you with any certainty but I've seen him look swift out there on the practice field. Thomas is above Tamme at this point and unless he fumbles the job away the starting gig is his. Dreessen is the player who will cut into his playing time and targets the most.

 

[EBF]

I've seen a lot of comparisons with Jimmy Graham. Is Thomas really that athletic? From the clips I've been able to dig up he looks like he moves pretty well for a taller guy, but I'm not seeing "wow" kind of stuff. The combine numbers aren't that close:

Jimmy Graham

6'6.2" 260 pounds (29.9 BMI)

40 - 4.53

Vertical - 38.5"

Broad Jump - 10'0"

Three Cone - 6.90

Julius Thomas

6'4.5" 246 pounds (29.6)

40 - 4.64

Vertical - 35.5"

Broad Jump - 9'3"

Three Cone - 6.96

For a 6'6" TE to run low 4.5 and jump 38.5" and 10' is what I would call freakish. You just don't see those numbers very often for a TE. Nothing in JT's profile really stands out to that extent. Good speed and three cone time. Athletically, he's pretty close to Tyler Eifert, except Eifert is an inch taller and had a 9'11" broad jump compared to the eye sore 9'3" mark from Thomas.

Thomas may end up being a great TE, but the "freak" element of his game seems exaggerated.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

I've seen a lot of comparisons with Jimmy Graham. Is Thomas really that athletic? From the clips I've been able to dig up he looks like he moves pretty well for a taller guy, but I'm not seeing "wow" kind of stuff. The combine numbers aren't that close:

Jimmy Graham

6'6.2" 260 pounds (29.9 BMI)

40 - 4.53

Vertical - 38.5"

Broad Jump - 10'0"

Three Cone - 6.90

Julius Thomas

6'4.5" 246 pounds (29.6)

40 - 4.64

Vertical - 35.5"

Broad Jump - 9'3"

Three Cone - 6.96

For a 6'6" TE to run low 4.5 and jump 38.5" and 10' is what I would call freakish. You just don't see those numbers very often for a TE. Nothing in JT's profile really stands out to that extent. Good speed and three cone time. Athletically, he's pretty close to Tyler Eifert, except Eifert is an inch taller and had a 9'11" broad jump compared to the eye sore 9'3" mark from Thomas.

Thomas may end up being a great TE, but the "freak" element of his game seems exaggerated.

LOL at comparing JT to the most freakish guy to ever play the position, as a basis for saying he's not athletic.

 

[moleculo]

I've seen a lot of comparisons with Jimmy Graham.

that's weird. I haven't. Above on this page, someone called him a "poor mans Graham", which is probably the closest comparison.

Thomas may end up being a great TE, but the "freak" element of his game seems exaggerated.

Where is this coming from? I haven't seen anyone claiming this. Earlier in this thread, I talked about his size, but that was in comparison to Welker and who would be more effective as a run-blocker...

Guys, no one is claiming Julius Thomas is a reasonable comparison to Jimmy Graham, no one is projecting Graham type of stats. Can we please stop taking swipes at these strawmen?

What most folks are looking at is 50-60 catches, 500-700 yards, and a handful of TD's. That's all this hype-train is expecting. That's not unreasonable, it is fantasy relevant, and it is worth noting for a guy with one career catch in two years.

 

[FDC]

I've seen a lot of comparisons with Jimmy Graham. Is Thomas really that athletic? From the clips I've been able to dig up he looks like he moves pretty well for a taller guy, but I'm not seeing "wow" kind of stuff. The combine numbers aren't that close:

Jimmy Graham

6'6.2" 260 pounds (29.9 BMI)

40 - 4.53

Vertical - 38.5"

Broad Jump - 10'0"

Three Cone - 6.90

Julius Thomas

6'4.5" 246 pounds (29.6)

40 - 4.64

Vertical - 35.5"

Broad Jump - 9'3"

Three Cone - 6.96

For a 6'6" TE to run low 4.5 and jump 38.5" and 10' is what I would call freakish. You just don't see those numbers very often for a TE. Nothing in JT's profile really stands out to that extent. Good speed and three cone time. Athletically, he's pretty close to Tyler Eifert, except Eifert is an inch taller and had a 9'11" broad jump compared to the eye sore 9'3" mark from Thomas.

Thomas may end up being a great TE, but the "freak" element of his game seems exaggerated.

Didn't Gates have worse numbers than JT's?

Bit of a tangent here...

I followed Jimmy Graham in college as I'm a college basketball junky. I truly was convinced he was just a big klutz. He was aggressive + fearless + applied good effort but any athleticism seem to be wasted by lack of coordination. I just never could see him developing consistent route running and ball skills. Obviously I was completely wrong.

Thats when it sort of clicked for me... A hard football type mentality has a lot to do with NFL Success. Jimmy always had that edge. Fearless, aggressive, physical, like he belonged. I think JT has that. Once you combine that with D1 powerforward type athleticism - I think you can sort of throw out the fine tuned numbers because the athleticism is going to be there to make plays. JMHO

 

[pantherclub]

after this last batch of mocks Thomas is starting to show up in the late late rounds. 17th, 18th range. Which obviously is right, but he has another big game this weekend and I think all bets are off someone will reach for him just on general principle.

 

[MattFancy]

So who do you guys like better this year: Thomas or Fleener?

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

So who do you guys like better this year: Thomas or Fleener?

For me its Thomas. I dont trust Fleener at all.

 

[MattFancy]

So who do you guys like better this year: Thomas or Fleener?

For me its Thomas. I dont trust Fleener at all.

I just had a draft and took Fleener, but Thomas is still available. I was just trying to figure if it would be worth dropping Fleener for Thomas.

 

[Papa Georgio]

I thought Gates was a closer comparison* to Thomas but I haven't looked at any numbers or measurables. I am just going on how I remember Gates playing when we was 1st starting to emerge.

*Not saying he's the next Gates

 

[Adam Harstad]

Tamme has been practicing behind Julius, so as of right now Thomas is still ahead of Tamme.

When Dreessen is back he'll work as the team's primary blocking TE and red zone target.

Is Tamme back to 100%?

Nobody will tell you with any certainty but I've seen him look swift out there on the practice field. Thomas is above Tamme at this point and unless he fumbles the job away the starting gig is his. Dreessen is the player who will cut into his playing time and targets the most.

Thanks, Lammey, you're as invaluable as always.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I've seen a lot of comparisons with Jimmy Graham. Is Thomas really that athletic? From the clips I've been able to dig up he looks like he moves pretty well for a taller guy, but I'm not seeing "wow" kind of stuff. The combine numbers aren't that close:

Jimmy Graham

6'6.2" 260 pounds (29.9 BMI)

40 - 4.53

Vertical - 38.5"

Broad Jump - 10'0"

Three Cone - 6.90

Julius Thomas

6'4.5" 246 pounds (29.6)

40 - 4.64

Vertical - 35.5"

Broad Jump - 9'3"

Three Cone - 6.96

For a 6'6" TE to run low 4.5 and jump 38.5" and 10' is what I would call freakish. You just don't see those numbers very often for a TE. Nothing in JT's profile really stands out to that extent. Good speed and three cone time. Athletically, he's pretty close to Tyler Eifert, except Eifert is an inch taller and had a 9'11" broad jump compared to the eye sore 9'3" mark from Thomas.

Thomas may end up being a great TE, but the "freak" element of his game seems exaggerated.

LOL at comparing JT to the most freakish guy to ever play the position, as a basis for saying he's not athletic.

Jimmy Graham is nowhere close to the most freakish guy to ever play the position.

Vernon Davis

6'3" 254 pounds (31.7)

40 - 4.38

Vertical - 42"

Broad Jump - 10'8"

Three Cone - 7.00

Bench Press (just because) - 33 reps (!!!)

Edit: Jimmy Graham is athletic, but he's no Fendi Onobun.

Fendi Onobun

6'6" 252 pounds

40 - 4.48

Vertical - 37.5"

Broad Jump - 11'1" (!!!)

Three Cone - 6.85

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

I've seen a lot of comparisons with Jimmy Graham. Is Thomas really that athletic? From the clips I've been able to dig up he looks like he moves pretty well for a taller guy, but I'm not seeing "wow" kind of stuff. The combine numbers aren't that close:

Jimmy Graham

6'6.2" 260 pounds (29.9 BMI)

40 - 4.53

Vertical - 38.5"

Broad Jump - 10'0"

Three Cone - 6.90

Julius Thomas

6'4.5" 246 pounds (29.6)

40 - 4.64

Vertical - 35.5"

Broad Jump - 9'3"

Three Cone - 6.96

For a 6'6" TE to run low 4.5 and jump 38.5" and 10' is what I would call freakish. You just don't see those numbers very often for a TE. Nothing in JT's profile really stands out to that extent. Good speed and three cone time. Athletically, he's pretty close to Tyler Eifert, except Eifert is an inch taller and had a 9'11" broad jump compared to the eye sore 9'3" mark from Thomas.

Thomas may end up being a great TE, but the "freak" element of his game seems exaggerated.

LOL at comparing JT to the most freakish guy to ever play the position, as a basis for saying he's not athletic.

Jimmy Graham is nowhere close to the most freakish guy to ever play the position.

Vernon Davis

6'3" 254 pounds (31.7)

40 - 4.38

Vertical - 42"

Broad Jump - 10'8"

Three Cone - 7.00

Bench Press (just because) - 33 reps (!!!)

Edit: Jimmy Graham is athletic, but he's no Fendi Onobun.

Fendi Onobun

6'6" 252 pounds

40 - 4.48

Vertical - 37.5"

Broad Jump - 11'1" (!!!)

Three Cone - 6.85

Jimmy Graham dominates anyone they put on him. Corner, safety, LB. Doesn't matter. I don't remember a player like him ever.

Plus, according to your numbers, he is 3 inches taller than Davis, heavier, and yet somehow is still quicker...