***Official Julius Thomas Hype Train*** (1 Viewer)

[Buffaloes]

Orange Julius says "hi" to Terrell Suggs.

We'll see how it plays out, but I think a lot of us are feeling good about our late-round TE now.

 

[cstu]

I know many people don't worry about guys like Dreesen, but just don't be surprised when he's taking snaps away from Thomas when they are in their 3 WR sets. He's by far a better blocker. That's the only reason Thomas played as many snaps as he did. That likely won't be the case with a healthy Dreesen, just saying...

To me this is the biggest threat - that Dreesen will be in more to help the run game and take away JT's snaps.

 

[SameSongNDance]

I know many people don't worry about guys like Dreesen, but just don't be surprised when he's taking snaps away from Thomas when they are in their 3 WR sets. He's by far a better blocker. That's the only reason Thomas played as many snaps as he did. That likely won't be the case with a healthy Dreesen, just saying...

It's definitely a legitimate concern, but JT has made a strong enough case through-out training camp and now the regular season as to why he should be seeing extensive playing time. Dreessen has been sidelined since late May, suffering setback after setback and we don't even know where he's at right now. A couple of more productive outings from JT and I don't see how you can keep him off the field. Blocking is something JT can work on but Dreessen will always be JAG in the passing game.

 

[Sinn Fein]

I know many people don't worry about guys like Dreesen, but just don't be surprised when he's taking snaps away from Thomas when they are in their 3 WR sets. He's by far a better blocker. That's the only reason Thomas played as many snaps as he did. That likely won't be the case with a healthy Dreesen, just saying...

if he is blocking, he is not going out in many routes. Plus, people were saying the same thing about Tamme, who now looks relegated to special teams. talent wins out in this league, and Thomas is more talented than Dressen. Sorry, he just is.

According to a post above, Thomas did his damage on 27 routes. I think he'll continue to get at least that many routes in the future, no matter who the back-up TE is.

But if he can get 4/50/0.5 per game for the rest of the season, he is going to have a good year.

 

[ghostguy123]

I know many people don't worry about guys like Dreesen, but just don't be surprised when he's taking snaps away from Thomas when they are in their 3 WR sets. He's by far a better blocker. That's the only reason Thomas played as many snaps as he did. That likely won't be the case with a healthy Dreesen, just saying...

Thomas did seem to improve a LOT with his blocking as this game moved along. You may be right, but I dont think he will lose as many snaps as some think over this, not if he improves even just a little more.

 

[ghostguy123]

Althought he flipside is this. Yes Dressen is "just another guy", but if Thomas screws up and Manning gets nailed and hurt, then the Broncos become "just another team".

 

[DropKick]

I'd probably be looking to sell, assuming that I already had a starting TE who I felt good about (and I'm guessing that many JT owners do, especially in dynasty).

The offense is going to be dynamite and maybe it will carry him to a top 5 finish. OTOH, at risk of sounding like a complete hater, I'm not actually convinced that he's an incredible talent. He doesn't look as athletic as Graham or even Finley to me. More like a Marcedes Lewis, with the benefit of playing in a Peyton Manning offense.

How may people have TEs they feel good about, outside of Graham and Gronk owners? Many of us play in deep keeper or dynasty leagues and the Gonzos and Wittens of the league are old. So, this guy who could have a top 5 finish on a "dynamite" offense should be peddled for...?

Meanwhile, you're touting the Chris Harpers of the world who don't even make the team... and you want to tell us who looks athletic?

 

[ImTheScientist]

Althought he flipside is this. Yes Dressen is "just another guy", but if Thomas screws up and Manning gets nailed and hurt, then the Broncos become "just another team".

You must be a Dresden owner.

 

[DeaLerZ]

all this negative talk is silly... it was the guys first NFL game... he exploded

he passed the eye ball test, is going to play a huge role in the offense, is a perfect compliment to Welker in the middle, is a huge red zone target with great hands, has great speed and athleticism, Peyton loves him, linebackers and safeties will have difficulty covering him all year due to speed and size... and not to mention Peyton Manning is throwing the ball to him....

honestly if you are not expecting this guy to have a huge year after seeing what he did on Thursday than it is just because you weren't ballzy enough to pick him up before everyone else did... stop the Pessimism and get over yourself

75 rec, 950 yds, 10tds

Really dude, how did Ogletree do after Game 1 last year?

Stop believing this will happen in every game, get over yourself.

Really dude... first off who said anything about this happening in every game... and secondly that statement is completely irrelevant to the Broncos offense and Peyton Manning, and the TE position...the same boneheaded argument could be made in favor of Thomas comparing him to Victor Cruz's breakout year, but even that argument is irrelevant because Cruz is the #2 WR on a completely different offense with another Manning brother...but that one has a little more relevance if you want to call it that because the quarterbacks are related haha

But if you insist... Ogletree was the 3rd WR in that offense... the TE Jason Witten caught 110 balls last year... Ogletree's situation comes from lack of talent and equates to more of Eric Decker's role.... which Decker is far better and I can definitely see Decker having even more up and down games this year with the additional pieces of the offense that they have.. if you remember last year Decker had a lot of up and down type weeks... 2 rec, 20 yds, followed by 8 rec, 120 yds, 2 tds... i could see a lot of that happening with him especially because of how poorly he played on Thursday... Julius Thomas has been a guy throughout pre-season that Manning has targeted early and often

but again.. continue your negative view on the guy... isn't the point of playing fantasy football to be excited about finding gems?? Julius Thomas reminds me far too much of Antonio Gates breakout year back in '05... i believe he played really well the last 4 games of the 2003 season if i remember correctly and exploded on the scene in 2004 for 81 rec, 964 yds, 13 tds .. now grant it he was heavily targeted due to the lack of weapons in SD.. but 10 TD's seems entirely possible given his size and athletic ability.. he looks like an incredible red zone target for Manning to utilize

PICK HIM UP!!! i am not in your league man.. i could careless ... he is the starting TE in Peyton Manning's high octane offense PICK HIM UP!!!

 

[SameSongNDance]

Just for the record, it's not spelled Dressen, Dreesen, Dressan, Dreesan or Dresden (you win ITS) its spelled DREESSEN. My head almost exploded trying to ctrl+f his name in this thread.

In the future, I vote that we refer to him either as either "balky knee" or "that guy who could cut into JT's snaps".

 

[ghostguy123]

Althought he flipside is this. Yes Dressen is "just another guy", but if Thomas screws up and Manning gets nailed and hurt, then the Broncos become "just another team".

You must be a Dresden owner.

Huh?

 

[Amused to Death]

Anarchy99 come out of hiding yet?

 

[DoubleG]

Is any one concerned that he had a big first half but was relatively quiet the second half? Didn't get to watch the game but did the Baltimore D adjust? If so, will other teams do the same?

While Baltimore's defense didn't tackle at all the entire game, they did a decent job of keeping JT much quieter in the 2nd half than the 1st.

People wondering how teams are possibly going to stop him - they will likely look at the tape of the second half (and the first, for what NOT to do). Don't get me wrong, JT is a very talented player - but I am not ready to crown the "next Antonio Gates" (i.e. dominant, unquestioned #1 TE in all FF-dome) just yet after 1 great statline...from 1 half of football.

 

[Hoss Style]

You guys know Dreesen didn't play right? I would be trying to sell high on Thomas.

Ah, such is the life of an underrated JT owner.

Yeah, I think we're all aware. I'll start worrying when Dreessen turns in a practice.

I don't think you'll worry even then.

 

[identikit]

Sorry if this has been posted already and I missed it.

Some interesting insight into how Peyton utilizes his TEs:

http://www.xnsports.com/2013/09/07/julius-thomas-sustainable-fantasy-football-production/

 

[Ghost Rider]

Is any one concerned that he had a big first half but was relatively quiet the second half? Didn't get to watch the game but did the Baltimore D adjust? If so, will other teams do the same?

While Baltimore's defense didn't tackle at all the entire game, they did a decent job of keeping JT much quieter in the 2nd half than the 1st.

People wondering how teams are possibly going to stop him - they will likely look at the tape of the second half (and the first, for what NOT to do). Don't get me wrong, JT is a very talented player - but I am not ready to crown the "next Antonio Gates" (i.e. dominant, unquestioned #1 TE in all FF-dome) just yet after 1 great statline...from 1 half of football.

Right, and they will see a Ravens defense that got absolutely shredded to pieces, so I doubt many teams are gonna want to employ the "We gotta stop Julius Thomas" strategy. Demaryius Thomas and Wes Welker are still gonna be the priorities when it comes to game planning how to try and stop the Broncos defense. Basically, it is gonna be pick your poison, and Julius Thomas should benefit more often than not from defenses being more worried about the others lighting them up.

 

[fantasycurse42]

I love all the JT haters!!!

Dude is a top 5 TE... There is healthy Gronk/Graham above all - Then he is right there in that next tier with Witten/Gonzo/Davis

 

[ImTheScientist]

Is any one concerned that he had a big first half but was relatively quiet the second half? Didn't get to watch the game but did the Baltimore D adjust? If so, will other teams do the same?

While Baltimore's defense didn't tackle at all the entire game, they did a decent job of keeping JT much quieter in the 2nd half than the 1st.

People wondering how teams are possibly going to stop him - they will likely look at the tape of the second half (and the first, for what NOT to do). Don't get me wrong, JT is a very talented player - but I am not ready to crown the "next Antonio Gates" (i.e. dominant, unquestioned #1 TE in all FF-dome) just yet after 1 great statline...from 1 half of football.

Right, and they will see a Ravens defense that got absolutely shredded to pieces, so I doubt many teams are gonna want to employ the "We gotta stop Julius Thomas" strategy. Demaryius Thomas and Wes Welker are still gonna be the priorities when it comes to game planning how to try and stop the Broncos defense. Basically, it is gonna be pick your poison, and Julius Thomas should benefit more often than not from defenses being more worried about the others lighting them up.

Key to stopping Thomas, leave Welker and D. Thomas open.

 

[moleculo]

Is any one concerned that he had a big first half but was relatively quiet the second half? Didn't get to watch the game but did the Baltimore D adjust? If so, will other teams do the same?

While Baltimore's defense didn't tackle at all the entire game, they did a decent job of keeping JT much quieter in the 2nd half than the 1st. People wondering how teams are possibly going to stop him - they will likely look at the tape of the second half (and the first, for what NOT to do). Don't get me wrong, JT is a very talented player - but I am not ready to crown the "next Antonio Gates" (i.e. dominant, unquestioned #1 TE in all FF-dome) just yet after 1 great statline...from 1 half of football.

Lol... ravens D gave up 5 TD passes in 2nd half. I don't think anyone would want to model their D after that.

 

[fantasycurse42]

I'd make the Broncos beat me on the ground... 5/6 DB sets... Double on DThom & Wes... Safety on JT CB on Decker lb on RB 4 man rush... Probably fail, but anything is better than what Balt did.

Or just blitz blitz blitz and hope for the best... Too much talent for Manning to throw too. He throws 50-60 TDs this season, thus making JT a top 5 TE.

 

[FlapJacks]

Really dude, how did Ogletree do after Game 1 last year?

what does Ogletree have to do with the starting TE in Peyton Manning's offence?

compare and contrast:

Starting TE for Manning v. 3rd WR for Romo

the latter will have the occasional blowup, but the former has been known to have solid production

 

[Bigboy10182000]

Really dude, how did Ogletree do after Game 1 last year?

what does Ogletree have to do with the starting TE in Peyton Manning's offence?

compare and contrast:

Starting TE for Manning v. 3rd WR for Romo

the latter will have the occasional blowup, but the former has been known to have solid production

This.

The guy looked like a damn star and probably won't see a double team or a safety all season. Grab him and enjoy the ride.

 

[ChuckLiddell]

Is any one concerned that he had a big first half but was relatively quiet the second half? Didn't get to watch the game but did the Baltimore D adjust? If so, will other teams do the same?

While Baltimore's defense didn't tackle at all the entire game, they did a decent job of keeping JT much quieter in the 2nd half than the 1st.

People wondering how teams are possibly going to stop him - they will likely look at the tape of the second half (and the first, for what NOT to do). Don't get me wrong, JT is a very talented player - but I am not ready to crown the "next Antonio Gates" (i.e. dominant, unquestioned #1 TE in all FF-dome) just yet after 1 great statline...from 1 half of football.

I doubt anyone will be looking to the second half of that game and trying to emulate the way Baltimore defended the Broncos.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I'd make the Broncos beat me on the ground... 5/6 DB sets... Double on DThom & Wes... Safety on JT CB on Decker lb on RB 4 man rush... Probably fail, but anything is better than what Balt did.

Or just blitz blitz blitz and hope for the best... Too much talent for Manning to throw too. He throws 50-60 TDs this season, thus making JT a top 5 TE.

Blitzing Peyton all day is a recipe for giving up 50+ to the Broncos. This Broncos offense is like the Patriots '07 offense: you had better generate a pass rush with your front four. Or else.

 

[moleculo]

I'd make the Broncos beat me on the ground... 5/6 DB sets... Double on DThom & Wes... Safety on JT CB on Decker lb on RB 4 man rush... Probably fail, but anything is better than what Balt did.

Or just blitz blitz blitz and hope for the best... Too much talent for Manning to throw too. He throws 50-60 TDs this season, thus making JT a top 5 TE.

Blitzing Peyton all day is a recipe for giving up 50+ to the Broncos. This Broncos offense is like the Patriots '07 offense: you had better generate a pass rush with your front four. Or else.

yeah. pretty sure Manning can find Welker running to wherever the blitzer came from faster than the blitzer can get to Manning in shotgun.

I have never seen anyone better than PFM at diagnosing a blitz pre-snap, setting up his protection and coordinating the hot-read. He knows what's coming and how to beat it well before it happens.

 

[KingPrawn]

I love all the JT haters!!!

Dude is a top 5 TE... There is healthy Gronk/Graham above all - Then he is right there in that next tier with Witten/Gonzo/Davis

Just because somebody is trying to assess how he will do the rest of the season and how defenses will play Thomas doesn't make them haters. Perhaps they are trying to gauge his value so they can determine who to drop for him.

Your second part of your post is a little more helpful. There's Graham, then Gronkowski and then who? Witten? Where do you see Thomas as opposed to V. Davis or Finley or Gates? That's usually more helpful.

 

[cstu]

I'd make the Broncos beat me on the ground... 5/6 DB sets... Double on DThom & Wes... Safety on JT CB on Decker lb on RB 4 man rush... Probably fail, but anything is better than what Balt did.

Or just blitz blitz blitz and hope for the best... Too much talent for Manning to throw too. He throws 50-60 TDs this season, thus making JT a top 5 TE.

Blitzing Peyton all day is a recipe for giving up 50+ to the Broncos. This Broncos offense is like the Patriots '07 offense: you had better generate a pass rush with your front four. Or else.

yeah. pretty sure Manning can find Welker running to wherever the blitzer came from faster than the blitzer can get to Manning in shotgun.

I have never seen anyone better than PFM at diagnosing a blitz pre-snap, setting up his protection and coordinating the hot-read. He knows what's coming and how to beat it well before it happens.

All that's true but Peyton is still human and blitzes can disrupt his flow, even if it just results in knockdowns. I don't think defenses can play this offense straight up and win so they will have to be creative the blitzes they throw at Manning.

 

[cstu]

I'd make the Broncos beat me on the ground... 5/6 DB sets... Double on DThom & Wes... Safety on JT CB on Decker lb on RB 4 man rush... Probably fail, but anything is better than what Balt did.

Or just blitz blitz blitz and hope for the best... Too much talent for Manning to throw too. He throws 50-60 TDs this season, thus making JT a top 5 TE.

Blitzing Peyton all day is a recipe for giving up 50+ to the Broncos. This Broncos offense is like the Patriots '07 offense: you had better generate a pass rush with your front four. Or else.

Teams need a good front four, but it was the use of blitzes that helped the Giants beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I know many people don't worry about guys like Dreesen, but just don't be surprised when he's taking snaps away from Thomas when they are in their 3 WR sets. He's by far a better blocker. That's the only reason Thomas played as many snaps as he did. That likely won't be the case with a healthy Dreesen, just saying...

To me this is the biggest threat - that Dreesen will be in more to help the run game and take away JT's snaps.

JT's actually not terrible in run blocking, which is typically the easier of the two. His bigger problem is pass blocking.

 

[Restricted]

Seeing Witten's success against the Giants last night really makes me want to start JT week two over Finley.

 

[munygon2]

If you already own someone like Cameron or Cook, is this guy worth bidding on as a backup in case of injury or playing matchups? Or, do you think there are too many mouths to feed in Denver to make him reliable going forward.

 

[rocketsauce]

If you were savvy enough to already own Julius Thomas, you may be able to flip him for some serious cheddar.

Just traded my Vincent Jackson & Julius Thomas for AJ Green & Brent Celek. PPR league, 2 RB/2WR/1TE. Granted, it was to a noted Broncos homer, but I was very happy to score AJ Green.

If you intend to try to flip him (as I did, even when I drafted him with fingers crossed) you may even want to go a bit higher in FAAB in order to land him. I think he's got some people really salivating in a year starved for stud TEs.

 

[Adam Harstad]

If you were savvy enough to already own Julius Thomas, you may be able to flip him for some serious cheddar.

Just traded my Vincent Jackson & Julius Thomas for AJ Green & Brent Celek. PPR league, 2 RB/2WR/1TE. Granted, it was to a noted Broncos homer, but I was very happy to score AJ Green.

If you intend to try to flip him (as I did, even when I drafted him with fingers crossed) you may even want to go a bit higher in FAAB in order to land him. I think he's got some people really salivating in a year starved for stud TEs.

A year starved for stud TEs? You have to think the Graham, Gronk, Witten, Gonzo, and Davis owners all prefer their guy to Thomas. Cook outperformed Thomas in week 1, so no dice there, either. Cameron and Daniels both had games nearly as big as Thomas', so you wouldn't think their owners would be looking to spend big on an upgrade. I doubt people are willing to give up on Finley, Olsen, Rudolph, etc. after a single week, either. I doubt there are very many owners in most leagues who feel dissatisfied with their current TE situation, which means your potential trade partners are few and your potential competitors in the market are many.

I could see Julius Thomas commanding strong value in leagues with 1.5 PPR and a TE-eligible flex, but in standard leagues, I'd guess that your trade was the exception and not the rule.

 

[Run It Up]

Speaking of TE-eligible flex, going forward where do you think this puts JT as a WR/TE - I'm fortunately sitting atop a veritable cornucopia of TEs, including Graham, Thomas and Cook. It is possible for me to start a 3rd TE, but he would be occupying a spot previously reserved for a WR3/RB3.

Still not sure if I should hold and play all 3, or if I should move one, my depth is fine at RB and WR.

In my league, Cook was the 8th overall RB/WR/TE and JT was 11th. Obviously as the sample goes up that should regress, but to where?

 

[Judge Smails]

I paid big money for him last night in a non-TE mandatory league. My eyes don't lie. He looks like a beast and I know that Peyton LOVES to throw to TE's down the middle of the seam. This is an unstoppable pass offense. Teams have to focus on Demarious Thomas - still the #1 threat. He will draw #1CB coverage as well as roving safeties. Decker will run his routes on the other side. Welker has all of the LB's on edge as he scats across the middle. Just a perfect recipe for Peyton to take multiple shots down the middle just like he did with Dallas Clark in Indy. I'm treating him as a WR. He may not get 10 targets, but he can do serious damage with 5-7. Hard to invision him with under 10 TD's.

 

[ponchsox]

Speaking of TE-eligible flex, going forward where do you think this puts JT as a WR/TE - I'm fortunately sitting atop a veritable cornucopia of TEs, including Graham, Thomas and Cook. It is possible for me to start a 3rd TE, but he would be occupying a spot previously reserved for a WR3/RB3.

Still not sure if I should hold and play all 3, or if I should move one, my depth is fine at RB and WR.

In my league, Cook was the 8th overall RB/WR/TE and JT was 11th. Obviously as the sample goes up that should regress, but to where?

I was wondering the same, especially in TD heavy leagues where someone like Bowe could be a total stiff this year.

 

[cstu]

I paid big money for him last night in a non-TE mandatory league. My eyes don't lie. He looks like a beast and I know that Peyton LOVES to throw to TE's down the middle of the seam. This is an unstoppable pass offense. Teams have to focus on Demarious Thomas - still the #1 threat. He will draw #1CB coverage as well as roving safeties. Decker will run his routes on the other side. Welker has all of the LB's on edge as he scats across the middle. Just a perfect recipe for Peyton to take multiple shots down the middle just like he did with Dallas Clark in Indy. I'm treating him as a WR. He may not get 10 targets, but he can do serious damage with 5-7. Hard to invision him with under 10 TD's.

I'm treating him like that too, but I also expect defenses to adjust and not leave him uncovered like the Ravens did. Expecting the #1 CB to cover DT alone while the safety cheats to cover JT is tough, but that's what teams will have to do.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I'm on board the Julius Thomas train and have been for a while in a few dynasty leagues, but some of you guys should tap the brakes just a bit IMO. What happens when Dreessen (and his + blocking) returns is still a decent sized question mark this year IMO -- Denver didn't appear to run nearly as many 2 TE sets in week one as they did in 2012.

 

[weebs]

I'm on board the Julius Thomas train and have been for a while in a few dynasty leagues, but some of you guys should tap the brakes just a bit IMO. What happens when Dreessen (and his + blocking) returns is still a decent sized question mark this year IMO -- Denver didn't appear to run nearly as many 2 TE sets in week one as they did in 2012.

Imo they will use Moreno to block more as oppose of sitting one of their top weapons.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

There is just SO many mouths to feed in Denver though....I want to pick him up tonight but that just keeps ringing in my head.

 

[monk]

I paid big money for him last night in a non-TE mandatory league. My eyes don't lie. He looks like a beast and I know that Peyton LOVES to throw to TE's down the middle of the seam. This is an unstoppable pass offense. Teams have to focus on Demarious Thomas - still the #1 threat. He will draw #1CB coverage as well as roving safeties. Decker will run his routes on the other side. Welker has all of the LB's on edge as he scats across the middle. Just a perfect recipe for Peyton to take multiple shots down the middle just like he did with Dallas Clark in Indy. I'm treating him as a WR. He may not get 10 targets, but he can do serious damage with 5-7. Hard to invision him with under 10 TD's.

I'm treating him like that too, but I also expect defenses to adjust and not leave him uncovered like the Ravens did. Expecting the #1 CB to cover DT alone while the safety cheats to cover JT is tough, but that's what teams will have to do.

Ok who covers welker

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I'm on board the Julius Thomas train and have been for a while in a few dynasty leagues, but

some of you guys should tap the brakes just a bit IMO. What happens when Dreessen (and his + blocking) returns is still a decent sized question mark this year IMO -- Denver didn't appear to run nearly as many 2 TE sets in week

one as they did in 2012.

Imo they will use Moreno to block more as oppose of sitting one of their top weapons.

A 210 pound RB can't reasonably be asked to handle the same blocking responsibilities as a 260 pound in line specialist at TE. I also don't necessarily think I'd call Thomas one of Denver's top weapons just yet -- he might move past Decker (and that's a coinflip at best IMO) in the pecking order, but he's far below DT and Welker as a receiving threat.

 

[Sinn Fein]

Let me ask you this: How many passes do you think Dreessen is going to catch when he is run blocking?

Also, in Denver's offense, with Manning at the helm, nobody is "far below" anyone else - including Decker. The offense works because it creates mismatches or one-on-one coverage all across the field. manning is going to go where there is a mismatch. That will vary from play to play.

As for two-TE sets, why would you make a determination on how they are going to play with Dreessen, when he did not dress for week 1? There was no replacement for him on the roster. Tamme is not a blocking TE, and he seems to be limited to Special Teams right now.

I think an average week for Thomas will be 5/60/0.5

 

[lukinrats]

Is any one concerned that he had a big first half but was relatively quiet the second half? Didn't get to watch the game but did the Baltimore D adjust? If so, will other teams do the same?

While Baltimore's defense didn't tackle at all the entire game, they did a decent job of keeping JT much quieter in the 2nd half than the 1st.

People wondering how teams are possibly going to stop him - they will likely look at the tape of the second half (and the first, for what NOT to do). Don't get me wrong, JT is a very talented player - but I am not ready to crown the "next Antonio Gates" (i.e. dominant, unquestioned #1 TE in all FF-dome) just yet after 1 great statline...from 1 half of football.

Yea, after he did his damage, and stopping him came at the expense of letting 2 other playmakers burn you. This will be a common theme

 

[rjv]

I paid big money for him last night in a non-TE mandatory league. My eyes don't lie. He looks like a beast and I know that Peyton LOVES to throw to TE's down the middle of the seam. This is an unstoppable pass offense. Teams have to focus on Demarious Thomas - still the #1 threat. He will draw #1CB coverage as well as roving safeties. Decker will run his routes on the other side. Welker has all of the LB's on edge as he scats across the middle. Just a perfect recipe for Peyton to take multiple shots down the middle just like he did with Dallas Clark in Indy. I'm treating him as a WR. He may not get 10 targets, but he can do serious damage with 5-7. Hard to invision him with under 10 TD's.

I'm treating him like that too, but I also expect defenses to adjust and not leave him uncovered like the Ravens did. Expecting the #1 CB to cover DT alone while the safety cheats to cover JT is tough, but that's what teams will have to do.

Ok who covers welker

Exactly

 

[tdhartis]

I'm on board the Julius Thomas train and have been for a while in a few dynasty leagues, but

some of you guys should tap the brakes just a bit IMO. What happens when Dreessen (and his + blocking) returns is still a decent sized question mark this year IMO -- Denver didn't appear to run nearly as many 2 TE sets in week

one as they did in 2012.

Imo they will use Moreno to block more as oppose of sitting one of their top weapons.

A 210 pound RB can't reasonably be asked to handle the same blocking responsibilities as a 260 pound in line specialist at TE. I also don't necessarily think I'd call Thomas one of Denver's top weapons just yet -- he might move past Decker (and that's a coinflip at best IMO) in the pecking order, but he's far below DT and Welker as a receiving threat.

People seem to be on polar opposite ends of the high and low expectation spectrum. This is how I see it being summarized:

Pros:

• Arguably the best QB in the league
• Perception that this might be a career year stats-wise for Manning
• this QB's extended history of favoring & making his TEs fantasy relevant
• JT is considered to be more physically gifted at this point in his career than the TEs referenced in the line above
• Defenses inability to sufficiently cover JT due to threats at WR
• Lack of running game

Cons:

• Too many other mouths to feed
• Possible blocking liability
• Dreesen's effect upon return
• Observation of reduced 2 TE sets in Week 1 sample

After weighing the above I find myself on the positive outlook for JT side of things. There are few tight ends in the league with as many positives when it comes to their situations, and none of them are going to be ideal. I don't want to come across as overreacting from week one, but I'm in the crowd that believes Manning likely has a career year. If that is the case and he continues to throw for 350+ yards and 2-3 touchdowns on a consistent basis, then I think there will be enough to go around and JT has an excellent year. Additionally, there's always uncertainty when it comes to the TE position, and even on a "down" week where JT may register 4 catches for 60 yards and no touchdowns, that shouldn't be a surprise no matter the TE. This may sound obvious, but what's important is finding the player with the lowest floor and highest cieling, and there aren't many other TEs in the league that appear to have a more favorable one to me.

 

[moleculo]

I posted earlier that I thought JT would be, at worst, Mannings #3 target. I still think that happens, but I missed who would be #2. I was thinking Broncos would be running the ball more (and they might against lesser defenses than Baltimore and when teams start playing dimes vs Broncos 11 personnel), and therefore Welker would be less active. I think I was wrong on that one.

Now, I'm thinking that JT will be the #3 option ahead of Decker. Its just a matter of Decker being good, but not exceptional - DT is exceptional, Welker is exceptional, JT and Decker are both roughly equivalent, they just work different areas of the field.

I think what happens from here on out is good games from either Decker OR JT. It's gonna be tough picking which one without prior knowledge of how the D will play them. Both guys will be maddeningly inconsistent, but will have end of year aggregate numbers of a WR18-36 and TE8-14.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Let me ask you this: How many passes do you think Dreessen is going to catch when he is run blocking?

Also, in Denver's offense, with Manning at the helm, nobody is "far below" anyone else - including Decker. The offense works because it creates mismatches or one-on-one coverage all across the field. manning is going to go where there is a mismatch. That will vary from play to play.

As for two-TE sets, why would you make a determination on how they are going to play with Dreessen, when he did not dress for week 1? There was no replacement for him on the roster. Tamme is not a blocking TE, and he seems to be limited to Special Teams right now.

I think an average week for Thomas will be 5/60/0.5

If that's an average week for Thomas, he'll put up numbers essentially identical to what Jimmy Graham posted last year.

 

[cstu]

I paid big money for him last night in a non-TE mandatory league. My eyes don't lie. He looks like a beast and I know that Peyton LOVES to throw to TE's down the middle of the seam. This is an unstoppable pass offense. Teams have to focus on Demarious Thomas - still the #1 threat. He will draw #1CB coverage as well as roving safeties. Decker will run his routes on the other side. Welker has all of the LB's on edge as he scats across the middle. Just a perfect recipe for Peyton to take multiple shots down the middle just like he did with Dallas Clark in Indy. I'm treating him as a WR. He may not get 10 targets, but he can do serious damage with 5-7. Hard to invision him with under 10 TD's.

I'm treating him like that too, but I also expect defenses to adjust and not leave him uncovered like the Ravens did. Expecting the #1 CB to cover DT alone while the safety cheats to cover JT is tough, but that's what teams will have to do.

Ok who covers welker

Full time dime defense?

I'm glad I don't have to game plan against them.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Let me ask you this: How many passes do you think Dreessen is going to catch when he is run blocking?

Also, in Denver's offense, with Manning at the helm, nobody is "far below" anyone else - including Decker. The offense works because it creates mismatches or one-on-one coverage all across the field. manning is going to go where there is a mismatch. That will vary from play to play.

As for two-TE sets, why would you make a determination on how they are going to play with Dreessen, when he did not dress for week 1? There was no replacement for him on the roster. Tamme is not a blocking TE, and he seems to be limited to Special Teams right now.

I think an average week for Thomas will be 5/60/0.5

If that's an average week for Thomas, he'll put up numbers essentially identical to what Jimmy Graham posted last year.

Yeah, I'm far from a Julius Thomas hater, but people are throwing around some very high numbers in here. 80 - 1000, one guy saying he'll be shocked if Thomas doesn't score 10 TDs, etc. Could he go for 80 - 1000 - 10? Yeah. Would I call that a reasonable baseline projection? No way. Julius has looked good, but I'm not willing to say Jimmy Graham or Tony Gonzalez yet.