Nothing groundbreaking here, just some quick summaries based on local media and local coverage via radio and print.
QB: The Miami Dolphins have extended
Tannehill out for the next several years but this season he is set for a $4.5M salary, 2016 it goes to $11M, then 2017 it will shoot up to about $20M. I want to believe the contract is structured in a way that Miami can undo this in 2-3 seasons if necessary but that said I don’t have any proof of that either, I’m not a lawyer nor have I seen the contract.
But aside from that, RT looks like he can be a perennial top 20 QB, I’m not talking FF here but more like in the NFL. I also want to mention he played 2 years in college, 2 years in the pros all under Mike Sherman. Last season under a true professional OC he had the best season of his career. With a front office committed to getting him the help he needs and building an offense around him to succeed in. I’m still a little on the fence as to Tannehill’s ceiling but I don’t believe we have seen him on all cylinders just yet. I do feel we will see flashes this season, hopefully as a Phinsfan it will be positive.
Matt Moore($2.6M) and Josh Freeman($600k) will round out the back ups. Moore has shown he is capable as a back up, perhaps the best Miami has had since all the way back to Don Strock. That said, Tannehill is clearly the better QB now. Before last season many local writers said the difference between the two was almost nil and the team would win about the same number of games with either under Center. Now you certainly cannot say that.
RB: Lamar Miller ($1.6M/UFA next season) will be the lead back.
Jay Ajayi(Rookie/5th) looks to be the talk of many rookie camps. He will not be able to unseat Miller but the locals feel strongly he is primed for the RB2 role which had little impact for Miami last year. Miller was the only reliable guy and even then one could argue he wasn’t always operating at a super high level. The RB3/4 spots have Damien Williams and LaMichael James battling out the last spot, Gillislee will be cut IMO.
Can Miller repeat his success of a year ago? I feel like 1,000 yards rushing is well within the cards but trying to gauge just how much total yards we are talking and how much impact the other backs can have. It stands to reason that Miller will see a good chunk of the touches. Miami might not resign him and if that is the case, why do they care how many touches he grabs? Just looking over the numbers again, Miller managed almost 1,100 yds on the ground last season avg 13-14 carries a game. 5.1 ypc with that pathetic OL in front of him last season? Tannehill’s ability to take off really opens up running lanes for Miller on draw plays.
If Ajayi can take 10-12 good carries or touches per game on the short stuff, that will keep Miller fresh in the game and in the 4th Q where Miami tends to fade, this should help them close out any games they are lucky enough to have the lead(have you seen their schedule).
WR: Love the
Parker(1st) pick, hated that he was hurt already. You hope it is not the indicator of another Yatil Green(gasp) but I hope for the best. He is exciting and his immediate presence on the field was felt in the camps he participated in. He was easily the best WR on the field and once his injury heals I expect a bigger 2nd half of the season for him. I feel like parker was the best suited WR for the Miami offense and Tannehill based on RT’s strengths and weaknesses.
Jarvis Landry($800k/UFA-2018) had a nice rookie season hauling in 84 balls. The question is with a ypc of of 9.0 is Landry going to be a guy who needs 100 receptions, is he capable of that in this offense? You had to notice the quick synch he had with RT and to catch 84 balls as a rookie was nothing short of incredible. That said he was a safety valve. Maybe his role will improve but I would not pencil him in for 100 balls. If Brandon Marshall couldn’t do it here in Miami, just be cautious. I would rather project a slight uptick in his ypc and maybe 75 balls this season will net you 850-900 yds and maybe 5-6 TDs. I think most would be happy with a bye week filler type but I would not overly excited about him when Miami went out and added another 3 WRs into the mix. Sure they needed most if not all of them as they overhauled the WRs. I just don’t see Landry as a WR1 in Miami and I certainly wouldn’t in FF right now. I like Landry a lot as a fan but I also feel there is a ceiling here.
Greg Jennings($2.5M/$5.5M-2016) stands to have a nice season in Miami. I expect him to be one of the 2-3 WRs Miami will run out there on opening day with the starters. Guy was a Pro Bowl WR in 2010 and 2011, he is now 31 years old and certainly has plenty of wear and tear. His 2 years in Minnesota were nothing to write home about but his QB situation was touch n go, arguably had the worst he ever had tossing him the rock so I’m not sure you can assume his numbers will worsen in Miami. 70 catches has only been hit twice by Jennings but he also has 3 other seasons 68, 67, and 68 so that’s pretty close to every other season he racks up about 70 balls. Tannehill is an improvement over MN the last 2 years so once again I can see 68-72 receptions here, perhaps 900+ yards with a slight uptick in his ypc which fell way down from GB to MN. Keep an eye on camp but the less time Parker has in preseason the less likely he is to see the field early on. Jennings experience will make him valuable to Tannehill and he won’t show Tannehill up. He is a teacher now, he knows it.
Kenny Stills($500k/UFA-2017) rounds out the impact WRs on this team. I loved that Miami got this guy and I believe it is possible that since he is about a half step to full step behind Wallace, maybe that’s all RT needs to connect on a few of these long balls. It sounds nuts but perhaps it will show itself over the season. I don’t know if he can duplicate something like 60/900/6 TDs here. If he can get on the field for 50% of the snaps maybe he can make an impact. Right now I see him playing a lot early in the season but once Parker makes it back, you should see less of a role. Some might point to Jennings numbers being the ones taking a hit. I believe all the Miami WRs are going to see a dip once Parker is good to go.
TE: Jordan Cameron($4.5M/$9.5M-2016) is one or two good concussions from being done with football. Miami has had bad luck at TE. Dustin Keller blew his knee out largely due to a bad Tannehill pass in the preseason a couple years back. Charles Clay seized that opp but got paid a ransom to be in Buffalo(ggrrrrr). I wish Miami had just hit him with the franchise tag and continued to work on a deal. Was he worth what Buffalo paid? He showed some real flashes here and broke tackles like nobody I’ve seen in an aqua and white jersey at TE since Keith Jackson? He certainly is not that good but he reminded me a lot of Keith Byers who was here the same time. Cameron fits the offense and Tannehill rather well. He was on his way to greatness before he was derailed. I want to believe he can get the train back on track but he cannot be asked to block much on the OL. He has to be lined up like a WR in the slot and stay away from big hits the way Jason Witten makes a living in Dallas. Live to catch another pass.
Behind him is basically Dion Sims($700k/UFA-2017) who is a nice blocking TE, red zone target, and is making progress in other areas but he is a far cry from a Charles Clay in the making. The TE of the future is not on this team right now. Cameron won’t see $10M next season IMO. We’ll see how he performs but I can’t imagine he would be worth the money unless he returns to 2013 form. Big gamble here for Miami.
I’ll post up some info on OL and then defense as time permits.
Cheers,
