10. Brad Harman, 2B — Age 22 — (A+) Free Agent (2003)
2006: 482 PA — .322 OB% — .305 SLG% — 10.0 BB% — 21.2 K% — 21.6 XBH%
2007: 499 PA — .341 OB% — .449 SLG% — 8.0 BB% — 21.0 K% — 34.9 XBH%
Brad Harman may be one of the most interesting prospects to me, especially after his 2007 season. It was reported last year before the season that Harman’s mom had passed away back in Australia, and when he turned in a poor season, people kind of just wrote it off (myself included) to him being distracted off the field. Then, earlier this season, a reader of this blog with knowledge of Brad’s situation said that his mom was fine, and that nothing was wrong with her. Adding more intrigue to the situation was Harman’s mid season resurgence. Harman posted an OPS of .542 in April and .554 in May, but then the light went on, and the cover of the ball came off, as he posted an OPS of .794 in June, 1.033 in July and .998 in August. Over the last 3 months of the season he hit .321 and slugged .524, drawing 28 walks and striking out 59 times. Basically, he had two different seasons all wrapped into one, and has alternated between good, bad, and good seasons from 2005, 2006 and 2007. Harman moved from SS to 2B in 2007, and that adjustment might have taken its toll early in the season, but he seemed to settle in. He made only 14 errors at 2B in 2007, compared to the 36 he committed at SS in 2006. There was some talk of possibly shifting him to 3B, he has good hands and reactions, and his arm should be playable at 3rd. The Phillies are set at 2B and SS for the next 5 or 6 years it would seem, but Harman could possibly take up 3B as his own, or at worst, become a super utility guy, or maybe even force a trade if he continues to hit. The first step will be replicating his late season mashing at Reading. He’s still just 22, so despite all the ups and downs, he remains on track age wise.
09. Drew Carpenter, RHP — Age 22 — (A+) — 2006 (2nd Round)
2006: 15.0 IP — 3.75 BB/9 — 12.00 K/9 — 9.00 H/9 — 0.00 HR/9
2007: 163.0 IP — 2.93 BB/9 — 6.40 K/9 — 8.28 H/9 — 0.88 HR/9
The Phillies selected Carpenter out of Long Beach State in the 2006 draft and basically shut him down for the summer, giving him only a few innings as to allow him to rest after piling up a boatload of innings in college. Carpenter is a workhorse type starter that lacks overpowering stuff, but he does have good command and good mound presence, evident in him piling up 17 wins this season in the Florida State League. He has an average fastball in the 88-92 range, as well as a slider, curveball and splitter. His changeup is a below average pitch, but with his splitter, he might not really need to lean on the pitch going forward. He showed the ability to eat up innings this season, he has good command, but because he lacks dominant strikeout stuff, it’s hard to envision him as more than a #4 starter. The Phillies don’t have to rush him at this point, and they can allow him to continue to try and get comfortable with his changeup. Lefties did hit him harder, putting up an OPS of .778, compared to the .640 OPS righties registered against him. His splitter is his true out pitch, and he’ll need to use it more against lefties, as he doesn’t have enough fastball to blow it by guys. The Phillies decided to jump him over Low A despite only having 15 innings of pro ball under his belt, and he responded. He’ll start in Reading and anchor the rotation alongside Carrasco and Outman. If his changeup doesn’t improve, it’s not hard to see him developing into a setup reliever, but if he further refines his splitter, he can remain in the rotation.
08. Drew Naylor, RHP — Age 21 (SS) — Free Agent (2004)
2006: 37.0 IP — 2.19 BB/9 — 5.35 K/9 — 10.46 H/9 — 0.49 HR/9
2007: 93.1 IP — 2.71 BB/9 — 9.38 K/9 — 7.54 H/9 — 0.29 HR/9
Naylor is the 3rd Aussie to make my list, and the highest ranked of the lot. His 2006 debut was a mixed bag, as he flashed excellent control but didn’t generate a whole lot of whiffs. 2007 was a different bag, as he kept the walks down and piled up the strikeouts, while also cutting his hits allowed and more importantly, his home runs allowed. In 2006, he managed 1.42 GB per FB, and in 2007 he maintained the same ratio, while keeping the ball out of the middle of the zone and off the sweat spot of opposing hitters’ bats. Naylor’s stuff is legit, with a low 90’s fastball that has heavy sink, as well as a good curveball and changeup. His changeup made up the most ground in 2007, and he’s shown a willingness to learn and adapt quickly. Most Australian baseball players take longer to develop because they play less baseball at a younger age, but Naylor seems to be a quick study, and took only 1 year in the States before his breakout. He’ll probably start at Lakewood, and if all goes well, could be off to Clearwater before the end of the year. I probably could have put Carpenter ahead of him, or Harman, but I feel like he’s going to make a big jump forward again in 2008. His scouting report matches his numbers, and I think he still has some untapped potential here.
07. Josh Outman, LHP — Age 23 — (2A) — 2005 (10th Round)
2006: 155.0 IP — 4.35 BB/9 — 9.35 K/9 — 6.91 H/9 — 0.29 HR/9
2007: 159.1 IP — 4.36 BB/9 — 8.54 K/9 — 8.03 H/9 — 0.68 HR/9
After a rough first outing in Clearwater, Outman pitched very well, slowly gaining a bit more control and becoming very stingy with the hits allowed. Then he was promoted to Reading and the wheels came off, as he 5 HR and 23 BB in just 42 innings, while striking out only 34. By now, everyone knows the Josh Outman story. His father wrote a book on pitching mechanics and taught Josh an unconventional, homemade pitching delivery, which he used up through his sophomore year in college. Before his junior year he switched to a conventional motion, added 4 or 5 mph to his fastball, and his draft stock shot up. The Phillies grabbed him in the 10th round, and he’s paid dividends already, showing more and more promise every season. Now that he’s using a “normal” pitching motion, he sits in the 91-93 mph range, excellent velocity for a lefthander, and has a hard, sharp breaking slider which serves as his out pitch. He hides the ball well, which makes the velocity play up even more. While those are the good parts, the bad part is the control. Because he’s still somewhat raw when it comes to the mechanics of pitching, he tends to get a bit out of sync, and his control comes and goes. Beyond just learning better control, he needs to throw better quality strikes in all four quadrants of the zone. More advanced hitters will be less likely to swing at his slider if he can’t consistently throw strikes, and he found that out in 2A. He’s still young, he’s still somewhat raw and learning to pitch “the right way”, so he’s going to have his struggles. If he can harness his stuff, improve not only his control but his command, and develop consistency with his changeup and delivery, he has all the makings of a #3 or #4 starter. His changeup made big strides last year, but if he can’t throw it consistently, he might end up in the bullpen. Outman has considerable upside, but his long term success is going to hinge on his control.
06. Jason Donald, SS — Age 23 — (A+) — 2006 (3rd Round)
2006: 243 PA — .347 OB% — .362 SLG% — 9.5 BB% — 17.3 K% — 30.4 XBH%
2007: 574 PA — .395 OB% — .473 SLG% — 11.1 BB% — 19.0 K% — 34.2 XBH%
The 2007 version of Jason Donald is what the University of Arizona had hoped they were getting, and what the Angels though they were getting when they drafted Donald in the 2003 draft. He reportedly turned down a large bonus in the 7 figure range to attend Arizona, where his college career was viewed as a disappointment, with him never living up to his potential offensively. Upon being drafted, his throwing arm was considered his only above average tool, and he was pegged as a future utility player because he lacked a big bat. His 2006 debut didn’t do much to thwart that appraisal, but he responded with an excellent 2007 split between Lakewood and Clearwater. His numbers actually improved after being promoted, as he posted an .877 OPS in 293 High A at bats. Virtually every facet of his offensive game improved in 2007, as he raised his batting average from .263 to .304, his OB% by nearly 50 points, and his slugging % over 100 points. He drew more walks and a few more strikeouts, and hit for more raw power. While his numbers improved, most people still apparently don’t see him as a legit offensive player going forward. Maybe I’m in the minority, but I see an improved walk rate and an improved extra base hit rate, and this was after being promoted. The big test will come at 2A, and he should remain at shortstop for now, but there is already talk of having him slide over to 3B. On the minor league level he isn’t blocked at either position, obviously he’s not going to be playing shortstop at the major league level unless something happens with Rollins, and 2B is also occupied. He could play alongside Brad Harman again in the middle of the diamond, or one of them could shift to 3rd. Donald didn’t get much love for his breakout in 2007, but if he repeats the story in 2008, he’ll open some eyes. He could drop down this list next season, or he could jump up everyone else’s list, we’ll see.
05. Lou Marson, C — Age 21 — (A+) — 2004 (4th Round)
2006: 410 PA — .343 OB% — .351 SLG% — 12.0 BB % — 20.0 K% — 29.4 XBH%
2007: 457 PA — .373 OB% — .407 SLG% — 11.4 BB% — 17.5 K% — 28.3 XBH%
Marson, prior to the last few months, might have been the most under the radar prospect in the Phillies system. Prior to this season he’d shown the ability to draw a walk, but hadn’t hit a whole lot, while remaining a very solid defensive catcher. In 2007, he raised the ole battin’ average 40 points, the walk rate remained solid, he cut down on the K’s a bit, and he turned himself into a quality all around prospect. We’ve already outlined how valuable the catching position is, and Marson’s receiving skills have drawn pretty solid reviews. He handled one of the best staffs in the minors at Lakewood in 2006, at the tender age of 19.5, and handled another upper echelon staff at Clearwater in 2007, including the likes of Outman, Carpenter and Carrasco. He’s always been a tad on the young side for his league, but has kept his line drive stroke in order. Marson should start in 2A, at age 21, and again handle some of the best arms in the system. He offers more offensive upside than Jaramillo, while matching him, if not bettering him, on the defensive side of the game, and thus, is the best all around catching prospect in our system right now, with Travis d’Arnaud at least 2, probably 3 years behind. If Marson can further cut his K rate down into the 12-13% range, he could turn into a .300/.400/.425 guy, which would be extremely valuable from the catcher position.
04. Joe Savery, LHP — Age 22 — (SS) — 2007 (1st Round)
2007: 26.1 IP — 4.48 BB/9 — 7.59 K/9 — 7.59 H/9 — 0.00 HR/9
The Phillies raised a few eyebrows when they selected Savery 19th overall in the June draft. Coming out of high school, Savery was regarded as one of the top prep two way players in the country. He shrugged off the Dodgers, who took him in the 15th round after he slid due to signability concerns and headed to his home state Rice. He had a monster freshman year, playing 1B and pitching as well, but would then be hit with the injury bug his sophomore year, putting a damper on his draft stock. He had a surgical procedure done to remove a bone growth that was fraying his labrum, and it took him months to rebuild his velocity and regain his pure stuff. While he wasn’t pitching, he was mashing for Rice at 1B and DH, still maintaining his 2 way brilliance that made him such a coveted prep recruit. Near the end of the season, his low 90’s velocity had almost returned 100%, and the Phillies snapped him up at 19. Had he never had the labrum issue, he’d have likely been a top 5 pick, and rivaled David Price as the best college lefty in the class. His slide could turn out to be the Phillies fortune, as it reminds you of the Phillies being able to take Cole Hamels, another immensely talented lefty, who slid due to injury woes. Savery will have the “Rice Stigma” follow him until he makes it to the big leagues and pitches a full season. His fastball is above average, sitting at 89-92 with good movement, as Joe described it for us in a Q/A a few weeks ago. His curveball and changeup are both at least average, with his changeup probably being the better of the two at present. Because Savery split time between the mound and 1st base, he’s never fully concentrated his efforts on pitching, which is what the Phillies are going to have him do now. He’s a classic three pitch lefty with good stuff, and he’s very athletic on the mound. Once he gets used to the workout patterns and into the routine of being solely a pitcher, he could move fast. Reports are that he will start at Lakewood, but that could change. He struggled with his command in Arizona and in his brief debut, and he’ll need to continue to strengthen and shake off the rust. He profiles as a #2 or #3 starter, and could end up in Reading before the end of the season.
03. Kyle Drabek, RHP — Age 20 — (A-) — 2006 (1st Round)
2006: 23.0 IP — 4.30 BB/9 — 5.48 K/9 — 12.91 H/9 — 0.78 HR/9
2007: 50.0 IP — 3.83 BB/9 — 7.67 K/9 — 8.33 H/9 — 1.50 HR/9
By now, everyone knows the Kyle Drabek story. His dad happened to be a pretty good pitcher, he grew up in big league clubhouses and experienced the riches of being the son of a pro athlete. He pitched in arguably the biggest baseball hotbed in the country, for one of the best high school teams in the US, and was one of the most dominant high school athletes in the country over his junior and senior seasons. He put up video game like numbers his senior season, throwing tons of pitches, playing SS on days he didn’t pitch, and winning a State Championship. He had substantial off the field problems, which we won’t detail here again, and because of this baggage, many teams passed on him, despite the considerable talent. He was regarded as the 2nd best prep arm in the draft behind Clayton Kershaw, who went to the Dodgers earlier in the draft, and was also viewed as a potential 2nd round pick as a shortstop, as his bat was that good. The Phillies took him, and signed him that July. His debut was short, his numbers not very good, and the Phillies worked on slightly tweaking his delivery and trying to make him more compact. He started well in 2007 before getting knocked around, and ultimately tearing his UCL, requiring Tommy John surgery. The off the field problems don’t really seem to have followed him after his debut. He got great reviews in spring training and actually pitched in an exhibition game before being optioned to minor league camp, but guys like Jamie Moyer had positive things to say about him and his work ethic. He features the best pure stuff in the system, with a fastball that can touch 97, and one of the best cuveballs not only in the system, but in the entire minor leagues, a true spike curveball similar to the one Josh Beckett throws. Because he was likely pitching hurt the entire time after being drafted, a by product of his excessive high school work load, it’s tough to look at his numbers and really draw any conclusions. You can argue he’s ranked way too high here, but I think this might actually be a conservative ranking. You always fear an injury with a pitcher, but Drabek now has TJ behind him, and he should come back stronger than before, and if anything, this will help him in terms of learning how to take care of his arm and strengthen himself. His stuff is unmatched in the system, and has the potential to be a true #1 starter. He’s still very young, and maybe most importantly, he’s saved himself a bunch of miles on his shoulder at a young age, a big worry for young power pitchers. I expect good things out of Drabek in 2008 and beyond, and he could top these rankings next season.
02. Carlos Carrasco, RHP — Age 21 — (2A) — Free Agent (2003)
2006: 159.0 IP — 3.68 BB/9 — 9.00 K/9 — 5.83 H/9 — 0.34 HR/9
2007: 140.0 IP — 4.37 BB/9 — 6.56 K/9 — 7.33 H/9 — 1.09 HR/9
The Phillies signed Carrasco out of Venezuela in 2003 for $300,000, and it looks like money well spent. Most of you already know the background, so I won’t expound much. 2006 was a breakout season in many respects, as he pitched very well at the front of a good Lakewood staff, carving up the Sally League at age 19. However, his 2.26 ERA was helped by Lakewood’s park keeping a lot of fly balls in the yard, which is one of the biggest areas where C squared needs to improve. At Clearwater he maintained a 1.40 GB:FB mark, but at Reading he really struggled, posting a 0.80 ratio. As he moved out of the spacious confines at Lakewood, not only his HR rate shot up, but his walk rate jumped as well, and his K rate went in the opposite direction, while he allowed an additional 1.5 hits per 9 from his stellar 2006. Carrasco fought himself on the mound, often times struggling to repeat his delivery, and thus struggling with command and control. He was pitching in 2A at age 20, so clearly youth is on his side. The Phillies needlessly rushed him in 2005, they slowed him down last year, and it appears they rushed him again in 2007, as he wasn’t completely dominating at Clearwater when he was promoted. 2008 is his age 21 season, and he doesn’t turn 21 until late March, so he’s still got plenty of time. He needs to work on repeating his delivery, and as Keith Law mentioned, he needs to maintain his arm speed on his changeup to prevent tipping hitters off on it. If he refines his game, he can easily be a #2 starter in the bigs. His fastball has plenty of life and velocity, he has the abilit to not only roll up ground balls, but also strikeouts. The Phillies need to slow him down, let him get comfortable, and allow him to focus on strengthening his pitches and delivery, not worry about when he’s going to get thrown into the starting rotation. Carrasco should start at Reading, and could end up at Allentown, or maybe even get a callup in September (or sooner, in a pinch), but there is no need to rush him for a 3rd time.
01. Adrian Cardenas, 2B — Age 20 — (A-) — 2006 (1st Round)
2006: 177 PA — .384 OB% — .442 SLG% — 9.6 BB% — 15.8 K% — 22.4 XBH%
2007: 564 PA — .354 OB% — .417 SLG% — 8.3 BB% — 14.2 K% — 27.9 XBH%
We’ve finally arrived at the #1 spot on my list. I’m sure most assumed I’d go with Carrasco, but at this point, I’m more comfortable going with the position player. Cardenas was the High School Player of the Year in 2006, outshining fellow prospect Chris Marrero and breaking Florida High School records in the process. He’s a pure hitter, not the toolsy special like many of the hitters down the line in the Phillies system. He lacks great defensive skills, he’s already only an average runner, and will likely end up below average, but he can hit, and it’s his bat that will carry him. The Phillies jumped him over the short season circuit after a great debut, and he responded by hitting .295 at Lakewood at age 19, with 41 extra base hits (30 doubles) and 19 stolen bases, while doing a pretty good job of controlling the strike zone. After a very slow start with a .639 OPS in April, he posted back to back solid months with an .824 OPS in May and an .899 OPS in June. Possibly feeling the effects of his first full season, he dipped down to a .709 OPS in July, but bounced back with a .790 OPS in August. The most common trend for 18 year olds heading straight to Low A after their rookie league debut is a spike in strikeout rate, but Cardenas actually cut down on his strikeouts, which is what probably allowed him to nearly hit .300. His power increased, and will continue to increase as he fills out and matures. He’s only 5′11, 190, but he draws the Chase Utley comparisons because he has quick wrists and good instincts at the plate. Utley’s power didn’t really emerge until his age 23 season in 3A, so Cardenas has plenty of time, and over the next 3 seasons the power should slowly grow. The biggest doubt right now is his defensive position, mainly because he is blocked at 2B by Utley, and he doesn’t have the range for SS. Some are already wondering about moving him to 3rd, or if he’ll end up in left field. He should move to Clearwater in 2008, and there is no immediate need for him to change positions. If his bat continues to develop, he’ll likely have enough offense to play left field in the majors, but he could wind up being a very valuable trade piece for the Phillies before then, or he could possibly wind up at 3rd, depending on his ability to get off the long throws. Regardless, his bat is going to carry him, and if he continues to rake, the Phillies will find a spot for him, or another team will beat down the door and look to give him that spot.
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So there you have it. Let’s here your feedback, your complaints, and anything else you want to share. This is just my list, I’m sure some of these picks will look bad in a year, but hopefully I’ll have more hits than misses. Speaking of misses, the guys right at the cutoff for me were Brian Schlitter, Jarrod Freeman, Carlos Monasterios, Jeremy Slayden, Matt Rizzotti, Ben Pfinsgraff, and Tyler Mach.
6 games including a Red Sox game, 2 Mets games, and J-Roll bobble head day
Phils looking good from what I've seen though and they have been without Rollins, and without Victorino or Howard doing a whole lot thus far.
