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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (1 Viewer)

So, assuming some of this invasion by Putin was to cement his legacy as one of the “great” Soviet leaders. If this thing really doesn’t go his way and they are left as someone mentioned earlier a 3rd world country with nukes, what’s to keep him from just saying F it and start launching nukes?
We have to hope that the people under Putin tell him no or remove him from power before that happens. If things go terribly sideways for Putin here, what confidence would those under him have left? He would be in a very vulnerable spot at home. 

 
I hate to even ask this, but if the Russians end up killing Zelenskyy, wouldn't the rest of the world at that point have no choice but to enter this thing in a MAJOR way? Wouldn't that be the end of Putin? I mean, could he really survive (literally) that? 

 
Thats so unlikely it’s not worth really discussing. 
What exactly is unlikely?

Russian no longer transacting in dollars and instead helping spur China further to develop its bilateral transaction system is indeed a big deal. We lose reserve currency status and we are absolute toast with the amount of debt we have.

 
Russian brands are running scared. Stoli tries to claim it’s not Russian:

With regard to us being Russian.  We are absolutely NOT a Russian company.  We are a global organization with a significant portfolio of spirits and wine brands from around the world, with Stoli’s European Global HQ based in Luxembourg.  Stoli Premium and Elit aremanufactured and bottled in Riga, Latvia.  We are registered with the US TTB (Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau) as a Latvian product.  

Operations continue uninterrupted and we do not anticipate any disruption, with solid contingency plans already in place and being executed.

We are inspired by the Russian people who have taken to the streets calling for an end to this attack on a sovereign nation. For decades, Stoli Group has supported the marginalized and those at risk of unwarranted aggression. We stand now with all Ukrainians and Russians calling for peace. 

 
What exactly is unlikely?

Russian no longer transacting in dollars and instead helping spur China further to develop its bilateral transaction system is indeed a big deal. We lose reserve currency status and we are absolute toast with the amount of debt we have.
I don’t know enough about it to be definitive, but I also don’t know if China is particularly interested in that avenue right now. The moment word gets out they’re trying, they’ll get slapped with sanctions, probably.

 
What exactly is unlikely?

Russian no longer transacting in dollars and instead helping spur China further to develop its bilateral transaction system is indeed a big deal. We lose reserve currency status and we are absolute toast with the amount of debt we have.
The odds of that happening while Russia is barred from swift for a few months is extremely remote. There are more pressing concerns in the world right now. Finding a way to get a psychopath with nukes to stand down is A1. 

 
We have to hope that the people under Putin tell him no or remove him from power before that happens. If things go terribly sideways for Putin here, what confidence would those under him have left? He would be in a very vulnerable spot at home. 
That's where I am at. You have a Senate of 400+ people, and the oligarchs, who are all in place because of corruption and bribes. They have been lining their pockets; if Putin goes nuclear the gravy train ends, all at once.

I don't believe for one second that sanctions haven't hurt. These corrupt, greedy Russian elite have seen their personal fortunes affected in a big big way this week. Someone going from 15 to 10 billion in net worth might sound OK to us, but it doesn't to the guy who just 'lost' 5 billion. It may take a while to feel the pain, but they are very aware that they cam lose everything.

That's my prediction. I don't think he gets voted out, or backs down, or starts a  nuclear war. I think there's a coup, and his former hockey buddies take him down. 

 
What exactly is unlikely?

Russian no longer transacting in dollars and instead helping spur China further to develop its bilateral transaction system is indeed a big deal. We lose reserve currency status and we are absolute toast with the amount of debt we have.


This is the big brain room.  Take this stuff to the psf.  

 
The odds of that happening while Russia is barred from swift for a few months is extremely remote. There are more pressing concerns in the world right now. Finding a way to get a psychopath with nukes to stand down is A1. 
Not that it wouldn't cause pain, but Swift as some ultimate Putin deterrent is a little naive. And you don't just switch it on and off like a faucet. There are reasons Putin met with Xi a month ago.

And hopefully Fed and Treasury are a lot more mindful of long term financial and monetary consequences of sanctions while advising the President than many in here.

 
I still can't figure out why people are so fixated on SWIFT.  It's a messaging system...think subscription service that everyone communicates through so that they don't have to set up individual communication paths between individual banks.  Of course a banking relationship can always choose to set up communication between the parties on their own, it's just not as fast or easy.  In my view, going directly to sanctioning the banks is much more impactful.  Kicking them off SWIFT is short term as they set up their own channels.  Going directly at the banks themselves is long lasting.


The governments seem to making a big deal about it.

 
https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1497619842551230468?t=LOVVFaeLh437tmNh4_wAGA&s=19

Wow. These guys have some serious firepower from somewhere.  Get rekt 


I'm not good at linking the twitters but people that are real news day these are vehicles for the Russia police to capture demonstrators and agitators for jail or whatever else they do.   

That they are already destroyed suggested perhaps they thought they would be in a crowd control mode by now. 

 
The whole world has their military pointed at them right now. Russia would get some shots off but would then be immediately incinerated. He’s on the ultimate island here. He can’t win that fight. 
I agree, but the world can’t win that fight I don’t think.

 
We have to hope that the people under Putin tell him no or remove him from power before that happens. If things go terribly sideways for Putin here, what confidence would those under him have left? He would be in a very vulnerable spot at home. 
God, I pray you’re right GB.

 
Not that it wouldn't cause pain, but Swift as some ultimate Putin deterrent is a little naive. And you don't just switch it on and off like a faucet. There are reasons Putin met with Xi a month ago.

And hopefully Fed and Treasury are a lot more mindful of long term financial and monetary consequences of sanctions while advising the President than many in here.
Delete - came off more prickish than I intended 

 
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Another Intel report out saying they gave the initial army enough stuff for two days and expected to resupply easily by air.   Now they have to send in reserves just to hold where they are.  Currently they hold one airport of value.   

This is the pure example of the spearman blowing up a tank in civilization

 
Really seems like Putin has no clue what he’s doing and there was no real plan here. Be surprised if he’s around in a year. 

 
Russian President Vladimir Putin has “more than 50 percent of his total assembled power now committed inside Ukraine,” a senior US defense official told reporters Saturday.
 
The official said the 50 percent consists of “largely combat power.” via @EllieCKaufman

 
Russian President Vladimir Putin has “more than 50 percent of his total assembled power now committed inside Ukraine,” a senior US defense official told reporters Saturday.
 
The official said the 50 percent consists of “largely combat power.” via @EllieCKaufman
And they’re getting more than they can handle, apparently. He fell victim to that classic blunder: Never get involved in a land war in Asia.

 
Russian state media still referring to the invasion as a special operation in the Donbas. 

Whatever reason you can come up with for keeping up the pretense, it's all bad news. They still think the population is fooled, they actually believe it, they think the rest of the world is that dumb, whatever. 

 
@nexta_tv·6m⚡️Germany will send air defense equipment and Stinger missiles to Ukraine. Earlier German authorities refused to do so.

 
@nexta_tv·6m⚡️Germany will send air defense equipment and Stinger missiles to Ukraine. Earlier German authorities refused to do so.
So after 20 minutes of YouTube research I am now an expert. 

The anti tank stuff from British military, and the German anti tank weapons (sent 1000 of them), any of the guerrillas could use almost right away. 

Those stingers, I'd like to think trained soldiers have all of those. 

 
Watching soccer and Roman Abramovich, Russian oligarch and owner of Chelsea FC has given over the stewardship of the club to their charity board.

Sanctions must be hitting hard. That's a $2B club based in


London
Yeeeaaah, I think this might be some cover for the PMs he has purchased in the UK to avoid going after the club. I mean, I would love to see the team seized, or a sale forced (is this even possible??), but letting someone else run the club for a bit, meh. Feels like he's getting out in front to buy some breathing room. 

Not that sanctions are no big deal. The dudes who track the yachts on Twitter have made it clear the oligarchs are afraid of losing their boats. 

 
So, assuming some of this invasion by Putin was to cement his legacy as one of the “great” Soviet leaders. If this thing really doesn’t go his way and they are left as someone mentioned earlier a 3rd world country with nukes, what’s to keep him from just saying F it and start launching nukes?
We have to hope that the people under Putin tell him no or remove him from power before that happens. If things go terribly sideways for Putin here, what confidence would those under him have left? He would be in a very vulnerable spot at home. 
Cross-posting myself from TPF thread:

Long story short -- Putin likely can't launch nukes without help.

 
Seeing the resolve, unity, and bravery of these people makes me sad that our country seems unable to rally together behind anything. 
That’s how most empires through history have fallen. Strife from within, until someone else comes along to clean up the remnants.

 
Seeing the resolve, unity, and bravery of these people makes me sad that our country seems unable to rally together behind anything. 


I agree but now they are fighting for that elusive "freedom" that we take for granted. It is much different when the wolf is knocking at your own door.

Should be a wake up call for everyone.

 
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If this  was happening on American soil I guarantee you American people would come together and do this.

You know how many rednecks with guns are in this country? They just need a legal excuse to shoot.


I'm pretty sure I can get a better k:d ratio then in gears.  

 

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