*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (5 Viewers)

[Don't Toews Me]

Russia Buys Tens of Millions of Euros of Banned EU Weapons Tech

European Union states still aren’t doing enough to stop Russia getting hold of sanctioned technologies for use in weapons to wage war on Ukraine, according to officials familiar with the matter.

www.bloomberg.com

European Union states still aren’t doing enough to stop Russia getting hold of sanctioned technologies for use in weapons to wage war on Ukraine, according to officials familiar with the matter.
Tens of millions of euros of trade in banned sensitive goods continue to originate from the bloc itself, despite multiple rounds of sanctions, one of the officials said, based on internal assessments of trade flows.
Almost a quarter of €450 million ($488 million) of so-called high priority items that reached Russia from the EU in the first nine months of last year was shipped directly from Europe. Russia mostly imported the rest via third countries, according to the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss private information.
Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Serbia, and China were among countries involved in the trade circumventing EU sanctions, as well as states neighboring Russia including Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia. While data show the EU’s direct official trade with Russia in sensitive goods collapsed after the war began, exports of those goods from the bloc to third countries surged to fill the gap completely.

The Kyiv School of Economics reported in January that Russia imported $8.77 billion of battlefield goods – a list similar to the EU’s high priority items – between January and October last year.
Most of that trade takes place through networks of thousands of small companies outside the EU – with the vast majority based in China – and often through several steps across different jurisdictions, Bloomberg previously reported.
Shipments are hard to track as they regularly involve chains of multiple vendors and at times re-sellers who may be dipping into older stock.
However, the EU’s internal assessment suggests that a slice of the trade is originating within the bloc. Member states — who are responsible for enforcing sanctions – and companies, knowingly or unknowingly, are doing too little to stop it, the officials said.
The data also suggested that subsidiaries and subcontractors of some European firms operating abroad were producing sanctioned items and exporting them to Russia through intermediaries in middle countries, according to one official.

Scholz says Taurus decision linked in large part to range – DW – 02/26/2024

p.dw.com

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Monday commented further on why he opposes sending Taurus long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine, fearing an escalation of the conflict.

Scholz said the Taurus is "a very far-reaching weapon," adding: "What is being done in the way of target control and accompanying target control on the part of the British and the French can't be done in Germany. Everyone who has dealt with this system knows that."

The UK and France have since last year supplied Kyiv with the Storm Shadow and Scalp long-range missiles systems respectively.
Scholz also said that the German debate over Taurus had lost sight of what Ukraine actually needs, saying "What Ukraine is missing is ammunition at all possible... ranges, but not decisively this thing from Germany."

"We must at no point and in no place be linked to targets this [Taurus] system reaches," Scholz said. "This clarity is necessary. I am surprised that this doesn't move some people, that they don't even think about whether, as it were, a participation in the war could emerge from what we do."

He published similar comments in writing on social media, saying that while Germany was Ukraine's biggest provider of military aid in Europe (at least in overall terms) and would remain so, another thing was also clear: "We will not become a party to the war, neither directly nor indirectly."

Russian drone drives German foreign minister out of Ukraine waterworks visit

Annalena Baerbock’s trip to southern Ukraine is interrupted.

www.politico.eu

Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock had to flee from Mykolayiv in the south of Ukraine on Sunday because a Russian reconnaissance drone was hovering nearby.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1762160606411690327

At a joint briefing with Bulgarian Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov, answering a question about the supply of shells, Zelenskyy clarified that out of the million rounds of ammunition promised by the EU, Ukraine had received not 50%, as the journalist had said, but only 30%.

They've received 355k out of the million originally promised.

https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1762137948521165081

Ukrainian troops in the Avdiivka sector are reinforcing the defense line and organizing the defense of settlements west of Avdiivka to prevent further advance of the Russians and inflict maximum losses on them, said Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, commander of the Tavria Group of troops.

https://twitter.com/deaidua/status/1762091668646326561

According to @GordonRepinski, Olaf Scholz said today, that there will be no delivery of Taurus cruise missiles to #Ukraine in the future! The reason given by the Chancellor was that German soldiers would have to be deployed on Ukrainian soil if Taurus were supplied to Ukraine.

Background info: Olaf Scholz visited the new dpa newsroom and spoke to numerous editors-in-chief.

https://twitter.com/sambendett/status/1762153328614560170

According to the Ukrainian MOD, Russians are "trying to replace the (downed) A-50 with reconnaissance drones" - this can involve a number of Russian UAVs, such as Orlan-10, Orlan-30, ZALA, and maybe a few Forpost and Orion UAVs.

https://twitter.com/BarentsNews/status/1762005079983312927

Russian jamming is now messing up GPS signals for Norwegian aviation practically every day

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Weathering the Storm: Western Security Assistance on the Defensive in Ukraine

Evolving Russian tactics and sustained pressure along the frontline have pushed Ukrainian forces onto the defensive in 2024. If the West wants to keep Ukraine in the fight, it must adapt its security assistance accordingly.

rusi.org

A Javelin anti-tank missile costs almost $200,000 and will destroy one Russian tank. The average battlefield drone – with upgraded sensors and other modifications – costs around $2,000 and is equally effective under most circumstances. Hence, $200,000 would enable the Ukrainians to buy and deploy 100 drone systems and cause a commensurate amount of damage to Russian vehicles. While presenting this disjuncture at an irregular warfare conference in Washington about the growing problems of cost, scale and benefits of weapons systems in December 2023, a Ukrainian Colonel approached one author of this article to express agreement that their military needs to shift towards cheaper and more sustainable approaches to defeating the Russians. The Ukrainian Colonel noted that early in the war, more expensive systems such as the $5 million Turkish TB2 drone were highly effective and useful. However, the Russians have adapted to this system, limiting its impact over the past year. Likewise, the Colonel mentioned that the Ukrainians no longer use Javelins as much because Russian armour tactics have changed.
Such developments point to a concerning trend. Since August 2021, our US Department of Defense Minerva team has interviewed hundreds of NATO, US and Ukrainian military personnel and policymakers across Europe and in Western capitals. Recent interviews paint a picture of a war that is shifting to a more dangerous phase as frustration grows between Western leaders and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Security assistance efforts are presently at risk for a set of political reasons we review below. Policymakers, planners and operators we speak to also tell us of a growing mismatch between this assistance and Ukrainian needs – often the product of slow bureaucratic processes, risk aversion and organisational resistance to the valuable lessons of two years of intensified combat against rapidly evolving Russian forces. They tell of a reality – which several of us have seen firsthand – of a battlefield increasingly littered with drones and electronic warfare, requiring a major shift in tactics that no Western military is prepared for. At the heart of the problem is a tendency for Western assistance to reflect the war that Western policymakers and planners would prefer to fight, rather than the war Ukraine’s military is fighting. Our project’s key purpose and the reason for this article is to illuminate this reality and point to a better path.

Unfortunately, even with Ukraine slated to receive some F-16s in early 2024 out of the total of 60 pledged, these US-made fighter jets will not be a ‘silver bullet’, primarily because it will take Ukrainian pilots hundreds of hours of flight time to become proficient in combat. Much like the downgraded Abrams tanks, the Ukrainians will receive older F-16 variants (last upgraded between 2003 and 2005) which lack advanced avionics, software and sensors, and the most advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles will not be supplied until 2026. Thus, even with the addition of more airpower, the Ukrainians will not be able to field enough F-16 sorties to deter or shoot down Russian Tu-95s that attack Ukrainian cities with hypersonic air-launched ballistic missiles from a considerable standoff distance. If Washington wants improved outcomes, the dithering on properly helping, arming and training leaders in Kyiv should be unshackled from crossing Russia’s imaginary ‘red lines’. Not providing appropriate aircraft squanders the opportunity to achieve strategic ends after the decision to equip Ukrainians with F-16s sent the political signal to Russia’s leadership that Western leaders were at least willing to test that Russian red line.

The lack of Western airpower is only one of the failures of security assistance. Much of the equipment sent to Ukraine lacks crucial components. For example, over 40 US Bradley infantry fighting vehicles arrived on the front with bad batteries and poor wiring. Ukrainians near the front relayed to us that many M777 155mm howitzers arrived without the prerequisite aiming equipment. The lack of adequate maintenance and repair parts compounds the difficulties, with some Ukrainian troops telling us about US-made M-4 rifles breaking down after a week of use in the trenches. Many of these issues could have been avoided if there were sergeants doing a common-sense check of equipment before it was sent across the border into Ukraine.

A UK artillery officer who had trained Ukrainians on AS-90 self-propelled artillery told us the Ukrainians are fighting a ‘cyberpunk war’: First World War-style trench warfare and defence in-depth but with a kill chain dependent upon 21st century technology like drones and Starlink communications. The sort of combined arms manoeuvre being conducted in Ukraine is a potpourri of doctrines and tactics borrowed from Wikipedia, YouTube, social media like Telegram, video games like War Thunder, and US/NATO/Soviet training manuals. Recent footage of the smaller Bradley fighting vehicle defeating a much newer Russian T-90M main battle tank showcased Ukrainian ingenuity, as the victorious Ukrainian gunner said: ‘But as I played video games, I remembered everything. Both how to hit and where. I could stop him at any cost’.

Innovation and adaptation in the cyberpunk era of warfare makes the battlefield perilous for high-value weapons systems and more dangerous for the concentration of forces that needs to be massed for effective (counter)offensive operations. For instance, one Ukrainian officer mentioned that ‘bad weather is a bigger problem for assaulting Russians’ but the ‘lack of ammo is the biggest problem’ around Robotyne, where the average brigade can only shoot about 80 mortar and artillery shells daily. Because of Russian electronic warfare capabilities, most Western-donated smart artillery rounds are degraded because of highly proficient Russian electronic warfare jamming abilities. Such Russian jamming also prevents communications between Ukrainian units, reducing command and control abilities and undermining their ability to conduct the sort of combined arms manoeuvre that Western military advisors taught them previously at bases across Europe.
The rise and proliferation of First-Person View (FPV) drones (known as ‘suicide or kamikaze drones’) with improved sensors has caused both the Ukrainians and Russians to emphasise their use to overwhelm localised positions. The threat of FPV drones is so high that the Ukrainians are ‘trying to spread the practice of hitting UAV operators’. As relayed to us by one Ukrainian FPV hunter, ‘FPV drone is cheap, FPV pilot is months of training… we call it “killing smart Russians”’. This suggests an alternative approach to attrition, as Ukrainian forces are compelled to target Russian mass less, and smarts more.

The ultimate course of the war depends on which side masters a new technology at scale, creating enough mass to break the ‘will to fight’ of the opponent’s forces. To break the stalemate in favour of Ukraine would require a cheap and innovative way of clearing hundreds of meters of Russian minefields, and simpler and less risky ways of clearing Russian trenches and layers of defensive positions. Given our numerous discussions with those involved in the fight, doing this effectively requires producing and fielding at least 10,000 autonomous air, land, and sea drones per week with the requisite sensors, AI and firepower to punch through Russian lines and break morale. Such AI would effectively allow drones to be unjammable as they would autonomously decide who and what to target.

 

[rockaction]

This is Hitler 2.0.

I only disagree because there can never be a Hitler 2.0 when the world has nuclear weapons.

But other than that, yes it seems to be the case that Russia wants to expand empire and has designs on Poland. To have stated in the Carlson interview that Poland as a political entity was the cause of WWII is some serious revisionist history on Putin's part. The utter lies that he tells would be almost impressive if they weren't so sick and nauseating in their result or as a betrayal of his real intentions.

I can't believe we'd dither politically while this happens, but here we are. There must not be any common ground or truth anymore if we in America and Europe can no longer agree upon this.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1761740793440596050

I’ve spoken to numerous dignitaries from various different nations in Kyiv over the last couple of days and what I’ve tried to instil into all of them is the critical state of affairs regarding munitions supplies that currently exists in Ukraine.

I’m now visiting areas along the frontline; in Kharkiv Oblast I spoke to a Ukrainian officer who told me they are almost entirely out of all artillery ammunition - both ex-Soviet calibres like 122mm and 152mm and NATO standard 155mm.
“We can’t medivac our guys from the contact line anymore because we don’t have any artillery ammunition to suppress the Russians. We have to leave them to die”, the Ukrainian officer told me.

Colonel: Situation in Ukraine difficult and intense

Indirect fire is the main cause of casualties in Ukraine where the situation remains arduous, Col. Eero Rebo, head of the Defense League Headquarters, told Vikerraadio.

news.err.ee

Indirect fire is the main cause of casualties in Ukraine where the situation remains arduous, Col. Eero Rebo, head of the Defense League Headquarters, told Vikerraadio.

"The situation on the front is difficult and intense. One indicator of the latter is the sides' ability to fire shells. Artillery fire is responsible for the majority of losses. The Ukrainians estimate that for every shell they fire, Russia fires six," Rebo said.

"The Ukrainians have taught their enemy to fight. Experience is helping Putin's side avoid major losses and make fewer mistakes, while, luckily, it is not preventing them altogether. But we can also see that the Russians have joined the Ukrainians in playing the game of drones," the colonel remarked.

Rebo said that there are plenty of people in Russia willing to fight in Ukraine for money. "Looking beyond Moscow, St Peterburg and Kazan, the salary on offer, which would probably not impress Estonians, constitutes a real alternative. People take the offer and go shed their blood in Ukraine. But most of them are in for a tragic fate, looking at Russia's casualties both in terms of dead and wounded. But the promise of material gains still appeals to men," the colonel said.

"The Russian economy has been very flexible and capable of finding loopholes in the sanctions. It shows determination to get the Ukrainian thing done. We must also keep in mind that for the home audience in Russia, the war is not with Ukraine and is instead a much broader confrontation with the West, which started before the war did," Rebo added.

Rebo described Russia's air losses in the battle for Avdiivka as exceptional. "Putin's generals were going for the bank. And they took a bigger risk by moving the air force closer. Coordination of ground-air plans is another area where our eastern neighbor has a lot to learn. It seems something went wrong there, as such air losses really are rare," the colonel commented.

 

[Chaos34]

This is Hitler 2.0.

I only disagree because there can never be a Hitler 2.0 when the world has nuclear weapons.

There can be worse than Hitler, sadly.

 

[rockaction]

There can be worse than Hitler, sadly.

Indeed.

 

[themeistersinger]

Macron doesn't rule out possibility of Western troops in Ukraine

French President Emmanuel Macron said on Feb. 26 that the possibility of sending Western troops on the ground in Ukraine is not "ruled out" in the future, following discussions among European leaders as Russia's full-scale invasion entered its third year.

kyivindependent.com

I find this shocking. If there are to be Western troops on the ground, I would say to the French - you go first.

 

[FarFromHome]

There can be worse than Hitler, sadly.

Indeed.

Boy I don't know. It's one thing when an evil individual conquers people through warfare. It's another thing when an evil person kills millions through genocide. Two way different things. Imo. Such a tough topic.

 

[Chaos34]

There can be worse than Hitler, sadly.

Indeed.

Boy I don't know. It's one thing when an evil individual conquers people through warfare. It's another thing when an evil person kills millions through genocide. Two way different things. Imo. Such a tough topic.

Yeah, it's tough. Imo, the way Russia is destroying cities and randomly targeting civilians, this is genocide already. It's a dark topic, and I hesitate to share where I think we're headed, but it's dark.

 

[themeistersinger]

The Counteroffensive: The battle that saved Kyiv from Russian occupation

Editor’s Note: This article was published by the blog “The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak” on Feb. 22, 2024, and has been re-published by the Kyiv Independent with permission. To subscribe to "The Counteroffensive," click here. In the first hours of his full-scale invasion, Russian President...

kyivindependent.com

The story of the beginning of the battle for Kiev back in 2022

 

[themeistersinger]

Hungary approves Sweden's NATO accession

Hungary's parliament voted to ratify Sweden's application to join NATO on Feb. 26, finalizing the country's membership after almost two years of delays.

kyivindependent.com

That was the last hold out keeping Sweden from joining

 

[Orange&Blue]

One truth from this world is that a smaller state can't rely on international support. If I'm the leader that means I need to develop my own nukes. There is no better alternative to guarantee my countries borders.

Poland, baltic states, Taiwan, S Korea, Japan, etc... rely on NATO/US you say? Not when a potential candidate has threatened to pull US out or not defend.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1762236932010975637

#Ukraine, Donetsk front, Avdiivka sector. 26.02.2024.

According to the new DeepState map update, Russian forces captured the settlements of Sieverne and Stepove in Donetsk Oblast of Ukraine, located west and northwest of Avdiivka.

https://twitter.com/HenryJFoy/status/1762271577465295112

Macron also said Paris would drop its opposition to using EU cash to pay for emergency artillery shells for Ukraine sourced from outside Europe, in a longstanding change of policy that could unlock hundreds of millions of euros in military support for Kyiv

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1762348151359382012

Yesterday, the Netherlands announced that it would be contributing more than €100 million to the Czech-led shell procurement effort for Ukraine, helping enable the delivery of hundreds of thousands of artillery shells.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1762349987189404026

Danish PM Mette Frederiksen told the Financial Times that “naive” Europe had to avoid the mistakes of the 1930s and “step up and scale up” its defence industry to contain an imperialist Russia, which has made Ukraine just its first target.

Military: Russia concentrates troops near Kupiansk, Ukraine builds 'powerful fortifications'

Russia continues concentrating its forces near Kharkiv Oblast’s Kupiansk, which remains the primary target for Russia in this area of Ukraine’s front line, Illia Yevlash, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Khortytsia Operational and Strategic Group, said on Feb. 26.

kyivindependent.com

Russia continues concentrating its forces near Kharkiv Oblast's Kupiansk, which remains the primary target for Russia in this area of Ukraine's front line, Illia Yevlash, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Khortytsia Operational and Strategic Group, said on Feb. 26.

Kupiansk, a crucial logistics juncture that was temporarily occupied by Russia in 2022, is coming under renewed pressure by Moscow's troops.

Ukrainian forces, in turn, have built a line of defense and "powerful fortifications" near Kupiansk, "skillfully using the features of the landscape," Yevlash said on national television.

The situation in the sector is "very difficult," according to Yevlash, with Russia using a large amount of equipment and deploying reserves, mobilized soldiers, and units formed of convicts.

Russia’s military is also strengthening the border with Kharkiv Oblast to prevent possible cross-border raids into the Russian territory, added Yevlash.

Germany sends shells, drones, other aid in latest aid package to Ukraine

Germany has handed over 14,000 155 mm shells, ten Vector reconnaissance drones with spare parts, and other aid in their latest delivery of military aid to Ukraine, the German government said on Feb. 26.

kyivindependent.com

Germany has handed over 14,000 155 mm shells, ten Vector reconnaissance drones with spare parts, and other aid in their latest delivery of military aid to Ukraine, the German government said on Feb. 26.

The tranche also included four Wisent 1 demining tanks, three mobile, remote controlled, and protected mine clearing systems, material for explosive ordnance disposal as well as 250 more tool kits with blasting material.

Ukraine also received 22 anti-drone sensors and jammers, four border protection vehicles, and 12 satellite communication terminals.

Macron announces coalition to send Kyiv long-range missiles

France and other allies of Ukraine will "create a coalition for deep strikes and therefore medium- and long-range missiles and bombs," French President Emmanuel Macron announced on Feb. 26.

kyivindependent.com

French President Emmanuel Macron announced on Feb. 26 that a new coalition will work to supply Ukraine with "medium- and long-range missiles and bombs."

Macron held a summit on Ukraine in Paris, convening 20 European heads of state and other Western officials. The meeting included German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Polish President Andrzej Duda as well as leaders from the Baltic states.

France and other allies of Ukraine will "create a coalition for deep strikes and therefore medium- and long-range missiles and bombs," Macron said at a press conference, according to Le Monde.

https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1762249872743272883

Europe has extremely limited ability to produce long range strike weapons, so it's not clear how this would be achieved. Scholz has taken Taurus off the table and neither France or the UK have made any visible steps towards new SCALP-EG/Storm Shadow production.

https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1762304043517616180

Russia is reestablishing command and control bandwidth in preparation for a potential future large-scale conventional war against NATO in the long term.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/paris-conference-belie-doom-gloom-ukraine-elysee-says-2024-02-25/

A White House official told Reuters that the United States had no plans to send troops to fight in Ukraine and that there were also no plans to send NATO troops to fight in Ukraine.

There was progress on a Czech-led initiative to buy hundreds of thousands of ammunition rounds from third countries, something that France has been cautious about as it wants to prioritise developing Europe's own industry.
Ammunition supplies have become a critical issue for Kyiv. The European Union, though, is falling short of its target of sending Ukraine a million rounds of artillery shells by March.
Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said about 15 countries had agreed to sign up to his initiative. Macron said Paris would also do so and that a coalition to speed up delivery of long-range missiles had also been agreed.
"We are talking about hundreds of thousands of pieces of ammunition we should and could get in relatively short time," Fiala told reporters.
Defence ministers had been mandated to come up with a plan within the next 10 days, Portugal's Prime Minister Antonio Costa said.

 

[Chaos34]

Russia produced 4 million artillery shells last year. That's double the western world's capacity if it was fully ramped up and delivering everything available to Ukraine.

They aren't slowing down this year.

Ukrainian soldiers, now mostly with only small caliber ammo, no air cover, waiting for promised F-16's that never arrive, artillery shells that never arrive

This is coming apart at the seams for Ukraine.

 

[The Z Machine]

Russia produced 4 million artillery shells last year. That's double the western world's capacity if it was fully ramped up and delivering everything available to Ukraine.

They aren't slowing down this year.

Ukrainian soldiers, now mostly with only small caliber ammo, no air cover, waiting for promised F-16's that never arrive, artillery shells that never arrive

This is coming apart at the seams for Ukraine.

The waiting was on the wall 2 months ago. The fact that the US can't muster the political will to help Ukraine is sickening. Putin gambled that the west would falter in supplying arms to Ukraine and it looks like he was right.

 

[themeistersinger]

Eco-Friendly Military Gear Meets Unexpected Foe in Ukraine: Rodents

Discover how eco-friendly military equipment in Ukraine faces unexpected challenges due to rodent damage. Learn about the impact on operations and the resilience of Ukrainian forces.

bnnbreaking.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

North Korea ramps up shell deliveries to Putin, Seoul says

Russia gives food in exchange, according to South Korea’s defense minister.

www.politico.eu

Pyongyang has sent millions of artillery shells to Russia since the summit between North Korean President Kim Jong Un and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin last September, South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik said this week.

The military supplies have been delivered to support Moscow’s war against Ukraine in exchange for food and other necessities, Shin added.

Speaking at a media briefing Monday, the South Korean defense minister said North Korea had sent around 6,700 containers to Russia, which could accommodate up to approximately 3 million rounds of 152 mm artillery shells or 500,000 rounds of 122 mm artillery shells, according to South Korean news agency Yonhap.

"While North Korea's arms factories operate at 30 percent capacity due to shortages of raw materials and power, certain factories are operating at full capacity, which primarily produce weapons and shells for Russia," Shin said.

The deputy head of HUR yesterday said, "Russia has so far received 1.5 million 122 mm and 152 mm shells from North Korea. These shells are 70-80 years old, and half of them do not work."

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20240227002800315

In return for supplying weapons to Russia, Shin said North Korea appears to be receiving food and other necessities, as well as raw materials and parts used in weapons manufacturing.

The volume of containers from Russia to North Korea is presumed to be approximately 30 percent larger than those shipped from North Korea to Russia over the period, he noted.

"It seems that food accounts for the largest proportion (of shipments from Russia), which is believed to have stabilized food prices in North Korea, with other necessities also included," Shin said.

The minister said Moscow is also likely to have provided satellite-related technology to Pyongyang as the country put its first spy satellite into orbit in November and vowed to launch three more this year.

Although the spy satellite has been orbiting the Earth, Shin expressed skepticism about the North's claim that the satellite is capable of photographing major South Korean and U.S. military sites.

"It shows no signs of functioning and is merely orbiting without activity," he said.

If Russia's dependence on North Korean munitions and weapons grows, Shin anticipated the extent of Russia's military technology assistance is likely to broaden in the future.

"It remains uncertain to what degree Russia will offer technology related to aircraft and ground equipment sought by North Korea. However, if Russia continues to receive more munitions from North Korea, the scope of technology transfer could increase," he said.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1762410314971111716

Franz’s tweet should be read v carefully. He is saying what officials cannot say openly: that while Ukraine could technically fire Taurus without German boots on the ground, the experience of UK & French cruise missile use suggests that would be hard to avoid in practice.

European leaders wary after Macron's Ukraine troop comments – DW – 02/27/2024

Several European countries have rejected the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine after the French president said "nothing should be ruled out." Russia, for its part, says it would make war with NATO inevitable.

www.dw.com

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Defense Minister Boris Pistorius were categorical in their rejection of the idea of deploying troops to Ukraine.

Scholz even seemed to suggest the issue had not been discussed at Monday's meeting, an impression not given by Macron or Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who said there was disunity on the issue among the European leaders.

"What was agreed from the beginning among ourselves and with each other also applies to the future, namely that there will be no soldiers on Ukrainian soil sent there by European states or NATO states," Scholz told journalists.
Pistorius delivered a flat-out rejection, telling a news conference with his Austrian counterpart, Klaudia Tanner: "Boots on the ground is not an option for the Federal Republic of Germany."

Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson of Sweden, which will soon be a NATO member, also said that deploying troops was "not on the cards at all for the moment."

Spain, Poland and the Czech Republic have also said they have no plans to send soldiers to Ukraine, while the UK said it had no plans for a "large-scale" deployment beyond the small number of British troops already aiding Ukrainian forces, for instance training medics.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Germany rebuffs Macron on troops in Ukraine and tells Paris to ‘supply more weapons’

Berlin and central European countries reject French president’s comments on deploying forces

www.ft.com

A Nato official said there were no plans for the alliance to put combat troops on the ground. “Ukraine has the right to self-defence, and we have the right to support them,” the official said. “That is what Nato allies are doing and will continue to do.”
But a senior European defence official said Macron’s statement was about creating deterrence and ambiguity towards Russia, adding: “Everyone knows there are western special forces in Ukraine — they’ve just not acknowledged it officially.”
French officials also said western troops could potentially be involved through limited missions such as demining, maintaining and repairing weapons systems, or helping to secure borders of other countries threatened by Russia, such as Moldova.

It was already leaked that there were up to 50 UK special forces in Ukraine last year.

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1762421448985997744

When assessing the state of prepared fortifications post-Avdiivka and other key areas that might become frontlines this year, "disappointing" is probably the best description. The defenses are not as nearly good as the ones the Russians have built.

Solid strategic fortifications require joint efforts of the General Staff, Ministry of Defense, and civilian government — it cannot be accomplished solely with the resources of exhausted brigades or individual battalions!

In Ukraine, Russia Is Inching Forward Death by Death

Russian forces have an unorthodox view of acceptable levels of military losses, with a willingness to expend troops and equipment to make even small gains on the battlefield.

www.nytimes.com

As the Russian military launched its offensive on the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka last fall, Ukrainian troops noticed a change in their tactics as column after column of Russian forces were ravaged by artillery fire.
Russian forces divided their infantry formations into smaller units to avoid being shelled, while the amount of Russian airstrikes increased to hammer the city’s defenses.
It was one of several adjustments the Russians made to help reverse their fortunes after a disastrous first year. But these changes were obscured by one glaring fact: The Russian military was still far more willing to absorb big losses in troops and equipment, even to make small gains.
Russian forces have a different threshold of pain, one senior Western official said this month, as well as an unorthodox view of what is considered an acceptable level of military losses.
Hundreds of thousands of both Ukrainian and Russian soldiers have been wounded or killed since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, including tens of thousands last year in the battle for the eastern city of Bakhmut. Another town to the south, Marinka, fell to Russia in January, after heavy fighting and more losses.
Avdiivka was among the most costly. The various Russian casualty estimates circulating among military analysts, pro-Russian bloggers and Ukrainian officials suggest that Moscow lost more troops taking Avdiivka than it did in 10 years of fighting in Afghanistan in the 1980s.
But casualty numbers are difficult to verify — inflated by the side inflicting casualties and downplayed by the side suffering them — leaving the true cost unknown. The official figure of Soviet dead in Afghanistan, around 15,000, is considered to be significantly understated.
One prominent military blogger wrote that the Russians had lost 16,000 troops at Avdiivka, a number that for now remains impossible to confirm.
“Despite Russia’s heavy losses in Avdiivka, they still have a manpower advantage along the front and can continue assaults in multiple directions,” said Rob Lee, a senior fellow with the Foreign Policy Research Institute, which is based in Philadelphia.

Despite their losses in Avdiivka, U.S. officials predict that Russia will continue to put pressure on Ukrainian forces across multiple parts of the front line, hoping Kyiv’s units are degraded. The battlefield defeat, along with declining morale — exacerbated by the United States’s failure to continue supplying ammunition — might give the Kremlin’s formations an opportunity to exploit the situation on the ground.
The Russian military does not, however, have the kind of reserve forces that could immediately exploit the weakened defenses created by the retreat from Avdiivka, those officials said. American intelligence agencies have assessed that the Russian military command had hoped to create a force capable of quick frontline breakthroughs, but that the plan was dashed by the need to reinforce their defenses during last year’s Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Attacking well-entrenched positions means the assaulting force is at far greater risk: Those troops are exposed, and retrieving battlefield wounded and dead is exponentially more difficult than for those troops in a trench. Ukrainian troops have often been astounded by the amount of dead and wounded Russian soldiers they see strewed across the battlefield.
Still, the Russian troops keep coming. And with artillery ammunition critically low, the Ukrainians are being much more selective about when to use it. One unit commander said he had asked for fire support on a group of Russian soldiers only to be denied: There weren’t enough Russian troops to warrant a strike.
“You can’t really stop them,” said the commander, insisting on anonymity for security reasons. “While the front ones are moving, they’re bringing others up from the rear.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1762372104962367664

Macron admitted that the west had been “imprudent” in promising last year a million shells for Ukraine, which did not even exist in western armouries. The Czech idea to use European cash to buy the weapons elsewhere would now be implemented within 10 days

Needs to be done yesterday.

Kharkiv is struggling under Russian rocket attacks

A border region liberated by Ukraine’s army faces a new onslaught

www.economist.com

Before Vladimir Putin’s invasion in February 2022, almost everyone in Kharkiv dismissed the idea that Russia would attack this predominantly Russian-speaking city, 40km south of the border. “Would your brother attack you? No, he would not!” yelled an angry woman your correspondent spoke to in a market at the time. Ten days later Russian troops entered Kharkiv, only to be beaten back by Ukrainian forces. They then spent six months shelling it from the outskirts.
Within weeks of the attack the city’s population had shrunk from over 1m to just 300,000, according to Oleh Syniehubov, the governor of Kharkiv province. When Ukraine’s army forced the Russians out in September 2022, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians returned. Now Mr Syniehubov says that there are 2.3m people in Kharkiv province, compared to 2.7m two years ago. Shops and businesses began to reopen last summer, and people in Kharkiv shared the country’s widespread belief that a Ukrainian victory was within reach.
That optimism is long gone. Some who returned have begun to leave again, though so far the numbers are small. “Compared to autumn, business is down by 50%,” says Lilia Muntian, co-owner of Pakufuda, a board game-themed café. She says some people have left because their companies have relocated to safer parts of the country. Anna, a teacher, says her 12-year-old son is panicked by the missiles. She plans to send him to family in a quiet town hundreds of kilometres away on Ukraine’s border with Romania.

Sending Lithuanian troops to training missions in Ukraine possible – adviser

Lithuanian officials are considering the possibility of sending Lithuanian troops to Ukraine to train the country’s troo...

www.lrt.lt

Lithuanian officials are considering the possibility of sending Lithuanian troops to Ukraine to train the country’s troops, but support in the form of weapons and ammunition remains the main priority for the time being, Kęstutis Budrys, a presidential adviser, has said.

Live updates: Russia's war in Ukraine

NATO and multiple leaders said there are no plans for troops on the ground in Ukraine, after French President Emmanuel Macron floated the possibility of sending European forces. Follow for live updates.

www.cnn.com

Russia is introducing a six-month ban on gasoline exports, starting on March 1, to offset increased demand as well as lower output while some refineries undergo repairs, following Ukrainian strikes on some refineries, according to Russian news agencies.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1762505197836788073

Exports are up massively from every single EU country to every single country in Central Asia, the Caucasus and Belarus. Once you total all that up, it's not small. It's big. EU exports have risen by $1.3 bn per month from before Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The EU just watches.

Ukraine reports heavy battles in Bakhmut direction as Russia pulls in reserves

Intense fighting is taking place in the Bakhmut sector in Donetsk Oblast, as Russian forces are attempting to advance toward nearby Chasiv Yar, Eastern Group of Forces spokesperson Illia Yevlash said on air on Feb. 27.

kyivindependent.com

Intense fighting is taking place in the Bakhmut sector in Donetsk Oblast, as Russian forces are attempting to advance toward nearby Chasiv Yar, Eastern Group of Forces spokesperson Illia Yevlash said on air on Feb. 27.

Russia has been ramping up pressure along the front as Ukraine faces increasingly critical ammunition shortages due to a decrease in Western aid. Moscow's troops captured Avdiivka earlier in February, their first conquest of a Ukrainian city since Bakhmut last May.

According to Yevlash, Russian forces are focusing their attacks on villages east of Chasiv Yar, such as Bohdanivka.

"Fierce battles are already taking place on the outskirts, the enemy is using reserves, trying to reinforce its troops with various units, (such as) Storm Z, and Storm V (units made up of convicts – edit.)," Yevlash said.

Ramzan Kadyrov's Chechen forces are also trying to attack near Klishchiivka and Kurdiumivka, two villages south of Bakhmut, the spokesperson said. One of such units was reportedly destroyed by Ukrainian forces.

According to Yevlash, Russian forces are heavily employing air force and heavy weapons in the Bakhmut sector.

"(Russian) losses in heavy equipment are very high: 60%. That is, three out of five vehicles if they attack or deliver infantry," the spokesperson said.

Air Force: Ukraine downs 2nd Russian Su-34 aircraft in single day

Ukrainian forces shot down the second Russian Su-34 attack plane in a single day on Feb. 27, the Air Force reported.

kyivindependent.com

Ukrainian forces shot down the second Russian Su-34 attack plane in a single day on Feb. 27, the Air Force reported.

Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk initially reported one Su-34 shot down in the eastern sector earlier today.

According to the Air Force, the second plane was downed at around 2 p.m. local time in the same sector as the previous one.

Air Force: Russia has not used A-50 aircraft for days

Russia has not deployed an A-50 early warning and control aircraft for days, Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said on air on Feb. 27, only days after Russia lost its second plane of this model.

kyivindependent.com

Russia has not deployed an A-50 early warning and control aircraft for days, Air Force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat said on air on Feb. 27 after Russia lost its second plane of this model.

The Russian Air Force has recently lost two of its A-50 planes, one in January and another on Feb. 23, reportedly due to Ukrainian attacks. One such aircraft costs around $330 million.

"The intensity of the A-50 aircraft's use has decreased. They have been gone for several days," Ihnat said.

"They (Russia) decided not to send more and more planes... they have only a few such special equipment pieces in service."

The spokesperson reminded that in addition to the two destroyed planes, one was reportedly damaged in Belarus last year, and the extent of its repairs remains unclear.

I didn't know that one was damaged in Belarus last year as well.

 

[themeistersinger]

Vladimir Putin's Russian History Lesson to Tucker Carlson Was Wrong

In his pronouncements, Putin pays no attention to any of this greater Eurasian context or the Muscovite effort to “Europeanize” its identity. Like the sixteenth century Muscovite ideologues, he wants to erase the Tatar connection, and particularly its importance in the rise of Muscovy. He...

www.19fortyfive.com

 

[themeistersinger]

2 Years Into Ukraine War, Russia’s Ethnic Minorities Disproportionately Killed in Battle - The Moscow Times

Russia’s ethnic minorities continue to suffer outsized fatalities in the country’s two-year war in Ukraine, a trend that analysts warn will have long-term destructive impacts on these communities.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/aidefranceukr/status/1762519832551956571

“On the subject of doing better, a number of decisions have been made, in particular to switch to a war economy in segments where we are not yet [like] long-range strikes. This raises the question of the production rate of SCALP/Storm Shadow.” — @SebLecornu

https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1762552303255470318

Potentially very significant development here. The French Armed Forces Minister has recognized that the lack of production increases for SCALP-EG (beyond what is needed to complete fulfillment of Greece's order) is a problem. France needs to place a large order to both procure additional missiles for Ukraine and replace their own stocks. The UK should likewise restart Storm Shadow production, or place orders for SCALP-EG as well.

https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1762820841295732914

The average Russian household ended 2023 with about 18% more money in the bank than a year earlier. Russia’s Central Bank attributed this to “increased economic activity and growth in real wages”—but the data suggests military payouts played a major role.

Leaked Russian military files reveal criteria for nuclear strike

Doctrine for tactical nuclear weapons outlined in training scenarios for an invasion by China

www.ft.com

Vladimir Putin’s forces have rehearsed using tactical nuclear weapons at an early stage of conflict with a major world power, according to leaked Russian military files that include training scenarios for an invasion by China.
The classified papers, seen by the Financial Times, describe a threshold for using tactical nuclear weapons that is lower than Russia has ever publicly admitted, according to experts who reviewed and verified the documents.
The cache consists of 29 secret Russian military files drawn up between 2008 and 2014, including scenarios for war-gaming and presentations for naval officers, which discuss operating principles for the use of nuclear weapons.
Criteria for a potential nuclear response range from an enemy incursion on Russian territory to more specific triggers, such as the destruction of 20 per cent of Russia’s strategic ballistic missile submarines.
“This is the first time that we have seen documents like this reported in the public domain,” said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin. “They show that the operational threshold for using nuclear weapons is pretty low if the desired result can’t be achieved through conventional means.”
Russia’s tactical nuclear weapons, which can be delivered by land or sea-launched missiles or from aircraft, are designed for limited battlefield use in Europe and Asia, as opposed to the larger “strategic” weapons intended to target the US. Modern tactical warheads can still release significantly more energy than the weapons dropped on Nagasaki and Hiroshima in 1945.
Although the files date back 10 years and more, experts claim they remain relevant to current Russian military doctrine. The documents were shown to the FT by western sources.

A separate training presentation for naval officers, unrelated to the China war games, outlines broader criteria for a potential nuclear strike, including an enemy landing on Russian territory, the defeat of units responsible for securing border areas, or an imminent enemy attack using conventional weapons.
The slides summarise the threshold as a combination of factors where losses suffered by Russian forces “would irrevocably lead to their failure to stop major enemy aggression”, a “critical situation for the state security of Russia”.
Other potential conditions include the destruction of 20 per cent of Russia’s strategic ballistic missile submarines, 30 per cent of its nuclear-powered attack submarines, three or more cruisers, three airfields, or a simultaneous hit on main and reserve coastal command centres.

Ukrainian officials argued that Putin’s nuclear threats convinced US and other allies not to arm Kyiv more decisively early in the conflict, when advanced Nato weaponry could have turned the tide in Ukraine’s favour.
Alberque said Russia would probably have a higher threshold for using tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine, which does not have its own nuclear capability or the ability to launch a ground invasion on the same scale, than against China or the US.
Russian leaders believe that, whereas a nuclear strike against China or the US could be “soberising”, a nuclear strike on Ukraine would be likely to escalate the conflict and lead to direct intervention by the US or UK, Alberque said. “That is absolutely the last thing Putin wants.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/paulmcleary/status/1762848086152421393

Czech defense policy chief, Jan Jires, brings the heat:

"Some crucial segments of the European defense industry are now performing better than US defense industry....Rheinmetall in Germany is producing way more 155 artillery shells than the entire US defense industry combined."
Jires on Czech finding ammo for Ukraine: "we have been able to identify a huge number of already existing artillery ammunition...sitting in non-western countries. Most of these countries [are] unwilling to support Ukraine directly for political reasons so they need a middleman."
Czechia's Jires, on something I heard in Munich: "we still need and will need for many years to come American leadership and that's simply how it is. It may sound immature on the part of Europe to some people in the United States, but that's simply how it is."
LtGen Kosinski, Joint Chiefs logistics, on US planning next Ukraine package:
"We are still meeting every day still tracking everything that we would need to be able to send once that gets approved. We're working with industry to be able to have an understanding of what's needed"

https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1762847182284116287

BREAKING: Belgium will contribute 200 million Euros to procure 50,000 155mm shells for Ukraine. This will be conducted in coordination with Czechia, who have identified a source of ammunition outside of Europe. Delivery will be by the end of March.

https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1762820673502601576

Russian troops attacked the town of Kupyansk in Kharkiv Oblast with guided aerial bombs. A hit was recorded in the central part of the settlement, reported the head of the Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration, Oleg Synegubov.

Von der Leyen: Use Russian asset profits to buy ammo for Ukraine

“It is time to start a conversation,” says EU Commission chief.

www.politico.eu

The EU should use profits from over $200 billion of frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine's war effort, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Wednesday.

The Commission has long pushed to use those profits. The U.S. is pressing for all the assets to be seized and handed over to Ukraine, but some EU countries fear such a move might create turmoil on financial markets.

It's the first time von der Leyen has proposed using earnings generated by those assets to purchase ammunition for Ukraine.

"It is time to start a conversation about using the windfall profits of frozen Russian assets to jointly purchase military equipment for Ukraine," she told MEPs.

At the end of January, member countries agreed to move the proceeds from Russia's immobilized assets in Europe into a separate account, and they now are held in the Brussels-based security depository Euroclear.

The Commission is expected to propose a plan to use the profits to support Ukraine in mid-March, two officials told POLITICO speaking on condition of being granted anonymity.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/new-sanctions-threaten-russian-oil-sales-india-2024-02-28/

Fresh U.S. sanctions on Moscow threaten to dent Russian oil sales to India, the biggest buyer of Russian seaborne crude, and complicate efforts by Indian state refiners to secure annual supply deals, three industry sources familiar with the matter said.
Washington on Friday imposed sanctions to mark the second anniversary of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine and retaliate for the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
The sanctions target Russia's leading tanker group, Sovcomflot, which Washington accused of being involved in violating the G7's price cap on Russian oil, as well as 14 crude oil tankers tied to Sovcomflot.
Sources said Indian refiners are concerned the latest sanctions will create "challenges" in getting vessels for Russian oil and could drive up freight rates. That may narrow the discount for the oil, which is bought from traders and Russian companies on a delivered basis.

Bulgarian defense minister: Bulgaria to send 100 armored vehicles to Ukraine 'in few days'

Bulgarian Defense Minister Todor Tagarev announced the delivery of 100 armored personnel carriers (APC) "in a few days," the Bulgarian channel BTV reported on Feb. 28.

kyivindependent.com

Bulgarian Defense Minister Todor Tagarev announced the delivery of 100 armored personnel carriers (APC) "in a few days," the Bulgarian channel BTV reported on Feb. 28.

"The armored personnel carriers are still in Sofia. They will be transferred in a few days, but I will not say the precise dates," Tagarev said.

The Bulgarian parliament approved the supply of 100 armored vehicles from the Interior Ministry's stocks to Ukraine last December, together with armaments and spare parts, free of charge. The decision to send the APCs had to override a veto by Bulgarian President Rumen Radev.

Netherlands orders 9 howitzers for Ukraine from Czechia

The Dutch Defense Ministry ordered nine DITA howitzers from Czech manufacturers for Ukraine, its press service reported on Feb. 27.

kyivindependent.com

The Dutch Defense Ministry ordered nine DITA howitzers from Czech manufacturers for Ukraine, its press service reported on Feb. 27.

 

[Jayrod]

I don't visit this thread much since lately, but was just popping in and it seems that Russia is closer to winning at this point than before as the resolve of the West is waning.

One thing we simply haven't had the will to do is completely cut off Russia financially. They appear to be able to fund their war by providing oil and gas to the West (somewhat indirectly) and without NATO nations buying that energy, the theory is they would have not been able to afford to continue the fight. Instead, here we are still and the need for money to pay for ammunition is growing.

Seems the people actually winning this war are the arms manufacturers while the people of Russia and Ukraine suffer greatly.

 

[The Duff Man]

This feels like we are marching toward WW3 and all keeping our head in the sand about it

 

[Chaos34]

This feels like we are marching toward WW3 and all keeping our head in the sand about it

I've been saying that for two years. I'm convinced WW3 is Putin's strong desire. Takes too many words to fully explain and I get depressed doing so, but way back in the earliest days of this invasion I stated this is the most dangerous time in the history of the world. After two years I feel helpless and look into bomb shelter construction all the time. I know it's melodramatic, but I'm no survivalist hoarder type with three years supply of canned goods in storage. I'm someone born and raised on a highly secretive military base with a dozen friends currently employed in high end jobs there or retired from them. The dude who topped the executive branch of the civilian operation on base for a decade+, which is mostly highly classified weapons R&D, is a friend of mine since kindergarten. Retired now and as dark as me about this topic. Many here are moving far away from civilization when they retire.

Russia wins and the world destabilizes as Ukraine falls into a guerilla nightmare. Strong chance
Russia gets close to losing and the nukes fly.

The unintended consequences of assassinating Putin are a known unknown, but I'd take the shot if I had it.

What if Russia wins.

it sickens me to consider it the better option at this point. Today's nukes aren't like those love taps we dropped on Japan. I'm still sickened by the fools here and elsewhere who mocked Russia's comedic military having farmers towing away their tanks. I'm sickened the western media pushed that narrative and I tried explaining here Russia was already winning, taking land, leveling cities, building the land bridge to Crimea. I'm sickened by the fact I can start 50 different sentences with I'm sickened.

 

[GenX fan]

The unintended consequences of assassinating Putin are a known unknown, but I'd take the shot if I had it.

Better yet, why can't we get lucky and have Putin drop dead on the toilet like Elvis.
The only consequence of that would be Russia ending the war, imo.

 

[FarFromHome]

This feels like we are marching toward WW3 and all keeping our head in the sand about it

I've been saying that for two years. I'm convinced WW3 is Putin's strong desire. Takes too many words to fully explain and I get depressed doing so, but way back in the earliest days of this invasion I stated this is the most dangerous time in the history of the world. After two years I feel helpless and look into bomb shelter construction all the time. I know it's melodramatic, but I'm no survivalist hoarder type with three years supply of canned goods in storage. I'm someone born and raised on a highly secretive military base with a dozen friends currently employed in high end jobs there or retired from them. The dude who topped the executive branch of the civilian operation on base for a decade+, which is mostly highly classified weapons R&D, is a friend of mine since kindergarten. Retired now and as dark as me about this topic. Many here are moving far away from civilization when they retire.

Russia wins and the world destabilizes as Ukraine falls into a guerilla nightmare. Strong chance
Russia gets close to losing and the nukes fly.

The unintended consequences of assassinating Putin are a known unknown, but I'd take the shot if I had it.

What if Russia wins.

it sickens me to consider it the better option at this point. Today's nukes aren't like those love taps we dropped on Japan. I'm still sickened by the fools here and elsewhere who mocked Russia's comedic military having farmers towing away their tanks. I'm sickened the western media pushed that narrative and I tried explaining here Russia was already winning, taking land, leveling cities, building the land bridge to Crimea. I'm sickened by the fact I can start 50 different sentences with I'm sickened.

Thanks for sharing. I agree with most of your post. One thing I will say is that my gut doesn't fear any of the bigger countries going nuclear. Nobody wins. Most countries realize that. It's the Irans that scare me.

 

[Chaos34]

The unintended consequences of assassinating Putin are a known unknown, but I'd take the shot if I had it.

Better yet, why can't we get lucky and have Putin drop dead on the toilet like Elvis.
The only consequence of that would be Russia ending the war, imo.

No offense, sincerely, but that's naive. He's so paranoid, he's surely planned for it. Removing Navalny was probably something he felt necessary. Who knows? It's just a thought. But Navalny, who happened to be a far right nationalist himself, just anti-Putin, would have a groundswell of support if someone or something killed Putin. He doesn't have to worry about that now. We don't know for certain who would replace him, a known unknown, and we know the candidates, but it's doubtful, at least imo, whoever stepped in would just end the war. What is possible is the chaos in Russian society might eventually become key to ending the war. I dunno. Maybe he gets assassinated and his nuke guys have orders to push the buttons. Unintended consequences.

 

[themeistersinger]

Our readers’ questions about the war, answered. Vol. 5

Editor's note: We asked members of the Kyiv Independent community to share the questions they have about the war. Here's what they asked, and how we answered. Join our community to ask a question in the next round. Read our previous answers here, here, here, and here. Question: What is

kyivindependent.com

 

[Chaos34]

This feels like we are marching toward WW3 and all keeping our head in the sand about it

I've been saying that for two years. I'm convinced WW3 is Putin's strong desire. Takes too many words to fully explain and I get depressed doing so, but way back in the earliest days of this invasion I stated this is the most dangerous time in the history of the world. After two years I feel helpless and look into bomb shelter construction all the time. I know it's melodramatic, but I'm no survivalist hoarder type with three years supply of canned goods in storage. I'm someone born and raised on a highly secretive military base with a dozen friends currently employed in high end jobs there or retired from them. The dude who topped the executive branch of the civilian operation on base for a decade+, which is mostly highly classified weapons R&D, is a friend of mine since kindergarten. Retired now and as dark as me about this topic. Many here are moving far away from civilization when they retire.

Russia wins and the world destabilizes as Ukraine falls into a guerilla nightmare. Strong chance
Russia gets close to losing and the nukes fly.

The unintended consequences of assassinating Putin are a known unknown, but I'd take the shot if I had it.

What if Russia wins.

it sickens me to consider it the better option at this point. Today's nukes aren't like those love taps we dropped on Japan. I'm still sickened by the fools here and elsewhere who mocked Russia's comedic military having farmers towing away their tanks. I'm sickened the western media pushed that narrative and I tried explaining here Russia was already winning, taking land, leveling cities, building the land bridge to Crimea. I'm sickened by the fact I can start 50 different sentences with I'm sickened.

Thanks for sharing. I agree with most of your post. One thing I will say is that my gut doesn't fear any of the bigger countries going nuclear. Nobody wins. Most countries realize that. It's the Irans that scare me.

Well, he's said several times he's willing to use tactical nukes against Ukraine if necessary. He's threatened using the big ones elsewhere should NATO push him. Idle threats? I agree with you about the rest of the world's nuclear powers, but cautiously and without conviction.

 

[FarFromHome]

This feels like we are marching toward WW3 and all keeping our head in the sand about it

I've been saying that for two years. I'm convinced WW3 is Putin's strong desire. Takes too many words to fully explain and I get depressed doing so, but way back in the earliest days of this invasion I stated this is the most dangerous time in the history of the world. After two years I feel helpless and look into bomb shelter construction all the time. I know it's melodramatic, but I'm no survivalist hoarder type with three years supply of canned goods in storage. I'm someone born and raised on a highly secretive military base with a dozen friends currently employed in high end jobs there or retired from them. The dude who topped the executive branch of the civilian operation on base for a decade+, which is mostly highly classified weapons R&D, is a friend of mine since kindergarten. Retired now and as dark as me about this topic. Many here are moving far away from civilization when they retire.

Russia wins and the world destabilizes as Ukraine falls into a guerilla nightmare. Strong chance
Russia gets close to losing and the nukes fly.

The unintended consequences of assassinating Putin are a known unknown, but I'd take the shot if I had it.

What if Russia wins.

it sickens me to consider it the better option at this point. Today's nukes aren't like those love taps we dropped on Japan. I'm still sickened by the fools here and elsewhere who mocked Russia's comedic military having farmers towing away their tanks. I'm sickened the western media pushed that narrative and I tried explaining here Russia was already winning, taking land, leveling cities, building the land bridge to Crimea. I'm sickened by the fact I can start 50 different sentences with I'm sickened.

Thanks for sharing. I agree with most of your post. One thing I will say is that my gut doesn't fear any of the bigger countries going nuclear. Nobody wins. Most countries realize that. It's the Irans that scare me.

Well, he's said several times he's willing to use tactical nukes against Ukraine if necessary. He's threatened using the big ones elsewhere should NATO push him. Idle threats? I agree with you about the rest of the world's nuclear powers, but cautiously and without conviction.

Nuke talk is the biggest playground leverage play ever. Easy to say. Easy to threaten with. Only been used twice in the histoy of mankind. I just hope that number stays at 2 for the history of mankind.

 

[themeistersinger]

The Bad News Bundeswehr: An Examination of the Truly Dire State of Germany's Military

Last February, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that the country was going to invest substantially in its military. But not much has happened since then. And now Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht has been replaced. DER SPIEGEL takes a closer look at what is ailing the Bundeswehr.

www.spiegel.de

This article is originally from January 2023

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine Sees Risk of Russia Breaking Through Defenses by Summer

Ukrainian officials are concerned that Russian advances could gain significant momentum by the summer unless their allies can increase the supply of ammunition, according to a person familiar with their analysis.

www.bloomberg.com

Ukrainian officials are concerned that Russian advances could gain significant momentum by the summer unless their allies can increase the supply of ammunition, according to a person familiar with their analysis.
Internal assessments of the situation on the battlefield from Kyiv are growing increasingly bleak as Ukrainian forces struggle to hold off Russian attacks while rationing the number shells they can fire.
Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said Thursday that mistakes by frontline commanders had compounded the problems facing Ukraine’s defenses around Avdiivka, which was captured by Russian forces this month. Syrskyi said he’d sent in more troops and ammunition to bolster Ukrainian positions.
Pessimism among Ukraine and its allies has been mounting for weeks as they’ve seen Russian forces seize the initiative on the frontline with vital aid from the US held up in Congress. The fall of Avdiivka and several nearby villages is fueling fears that Kyiv’s defenses may not be able to hold.
Those losses should act as a wake up call to Ukraine’s allies, a European official said.
“Ukraine can start losing the war this year,” Michael Kofman, a specialist on Russia and Ukraine at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said on the War on the Rocks podcast.
Russian President Vladimir Putin hasn’t given up his original goal of seizing major cities including the capital Kyiv and Odesa, according to Ukrainian intelligence assessments, the person said, asking for anonymity to discuss matters that aren’t public. If Russian forces reached Odesa, they would be able to shut off Ukraine’s crucial grain export routes through the Black Sea and also open up access to Moldova, where the breakaway region of Transnistria on Wednesday appealed to Moscow for political support.
Depending on the results of the current campaign, Russia will decide whether to continue with a slow, grinding advance, or to accumulate resources for a bigger strike to break through Ukrainian lines this summer, the person close to Ukraine’s leadership said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-repels-russian-attacks-situation-is-difficult-top-general-says-2024-02-29/

Ukrainian forces have pushed back Russian troops from the village of Orlivka, west of Avdiivka, but the situation on the eastern front remains difficult, Ukrainian army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Thursday.
Orlivka is less than 2 kilometres northwest of Lastochkyne, which was recently occupied by Russian forces.
Russian forces last week captured the strategic eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka after a months-long assault and are pressing on several other areas along the front line, Ukrainian authorities say.
Ukraine's military said this week it had withdrawn from two more villages near Avdiivka, losing more territory as support from its Western allies runs short.
"The enemy continues active offensive actions in many areas of the front line. The situation is particularly tense in the Avdiivka and Zaporizhzhia sectors," Syrskyi said on the Telegram messaging app.
He said Russian assault units were trying to break through the Ukrainian defences and capture the settlements of Tonenke, Orlivka, Semenivka, Berdychi and Krasnohorivka.

Syrskyi: Ukraine downs another Russian Su-34 jet

Ukrainian forces shot down another Su-34 attack plane, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on Feb. 29, hours after Ukraine's Air Force reported that one Su-34 had been downed overnight.

kyivindependent.com

Ukrainian forces shot down another Su-34 attack plane, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on Feb. 29, hours after Ukraine's Air Force reported that one Su-34 had been downed overnight.

The first Su-34 was downed at 1 a.m. local time (EET) in the eastern direction, according to the Air Force.

Another Su-34 jet was downed at around 9 a.m. local time. The planes were downed "in the Avdiivka and Mariupol directions," Syrskyi said.

Russia has lost almost a dozen Su-34 aircraft in February alone, according to the Air Force. Each plane is estimated to cost around $36 million each.

Ukraine war latest: Russia attempts to push Ukrainian troops out of Krynky using 'human waves'

Key developments on Feb. 28: * Military: Russia uses 'human wave' attacks near Krynky in Kherson Oblast * Belgium pledges $216 million to Czech ammunition initiative for Ukraine * Bulgaria to send 100 armored vehicles to Ukraine 'in few days,' defense minister says * Von der Leyen urges...

kyivindependent.com

Russian troops keep conducting "human wave" assaults without using armored vehicles in an attempt to retake Krynky, Nataliia Humeniuk, Southern Operational Command spokeswoman, said on Feb. 28.

Humeniuk said that during the day, Russia made only one unsuccessful attempt to storm the village as it could not rotate and reinforce its troops. Attacks will likely intensify once the rotation happens, she added.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-needs-3-bln-financial-aid-per-month-2024-kyiv-says-2024-02-28/

Ukraine needs about $3 billion in foreign financial aid on a monthly basis to get through 2024, Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko said on Wednesday, highlighting the challenges Kyiv faces as U.S. support begins to falter.
Marchenko said Ukraine's macroeconomic stability during the war with Russia had been possible due to a steady inflow of international financial aid from Kyiv's allies, something he added remained crucial this year.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Post-Avdiivka: On the Defensive

2024-02-27 Frontline update

frontelligence.substack.com

While some observers suggest a timely withdrawal from Avdiivka, our assessment indicates that initiating the retreat earlier could have reduced losses. An earlier retreat would have averted situations where troops faced breaking through envelopments at an undesirable cost or leaving the wounded without evacuation, akin to the infamous Zenith case. It's worth noting that the decision to retreat from Avdiivka was made more promptly than in Bakhmut in 2023, showing some improvement.

Thanks to the highly professional actions of the 3rd assault brigade, as well as other special units, a passage for certain retreating units was organized, facilitating a retreat while inflicting substantial losses on the pursuing enemy. However, some individuals we interviewed mentioned not receiving official retreat orders, and the decision to retreat was based on tactical necessity rather than a formal order. Waiting for official orders might have exposed them to encirclement and destruction, although our team cannot assess the extent of this occurrence.

Frontelligence Insight observes a notable deficiency in robust fortifications fortified with concrete and wooden structures on the Ukrainian side. Repeated reports indicate that brigades actively involved in combat are tasked with constructing these fortifications in their rears.

This approach is risky and even harmful, especially considering the acknowledged shortage of personnel on the frontlines for Ukrainian forces. Engaging combat-active brigades in fortification construction diverts valuable human resources away from critical combat roles. The construction of strategic defensive positions demands a complex and professional approach, extending beyond military efforts alone. Specialized equipment and assets such as bulldozers, excavators, hydraulic cranes, concrete production facilities, trucks, and resources like wood, along with logistics for their transportation to the frontlines, are a basic need. Given the scale of required constructions, Ukrainian forces lack sufficient engineering capabilities and resources to undertake this independently. Consequently, addressing this issue demands political will and the involvement of national leadership to mobilize civilian resources. Additionally, joint efforts with the Ministry of Defense are necessary to secure the resources needed for the procurement of such a serious project, especially considering existing budgetary constraints within the military budget.

This observation is not mere speculation; our team closely monitored the construction of fortification lines in the South by Russian forces. During that period, the Russian military actively engaged subcontracted civilian companies from Russia and occupied territories to secure construction resources, vehicles, operators, and logistical support. Moreover, to compensate for deficiencies, Russia used stolen and “confiscated” civilian equipment. This approach was coupled with a collaborative effort between military and civilian authorities in Russia, involving active participation from collaborators in the occupied territories. Despite numerous complaints regarding funds embezzlement, product quality, and various other challenges, the overall project proved to be successful.

Our team observes that due to relatively dry weather, the fields are rapidly drying up, facilitating the advance of Russian forces. Contrary to some anticipations that the muddy season might impede their progression, unfortunately, that is not the case at this moment. While the situation for the Ukrainian side is challenging for various reasons, such as ammunition and manpower shortages, inadequately prepared defensive positions, and other factors, the outlook for the Russian side is not necessary very optimistic. Here are some key points regarding the situation of Russian forces advancing across the frontline:

• Russian forces incurred disproportionately high losses during the assault on Avdiivka. Based on our team's geospatial observations, the estimated number of lost vehicles by the Russian side during the Avdiivka assault exceeds ~300. OSINT analyst Naalsio, who estimates losses based on video and photo evidence, confirms that over ~600 vehicles have been damaged, destroyed, abandoned, or later recovered. Estimating personnel losses is more challenging, but the overall number of irreversible losses, as provided by the now-deceased Russian military blogger Morozov, who committed suicide after being compelled to delete his post about losses, is reported to be 16 thousand people.
• Intercepted communication data, which our team had the opportunity to review, indicates that many units actively engaged in combat since the summer of 2023 are demoralized due to high losses, incorrect salary payments, insufficient rotations, and a careless attitude from senior officers and particularly generals. Some smaller units at the platoon to company level are refusing to participate in combat. However, it's important to note that the Russian military has an effective, extrajudicial system to address such behavior, creating only temporary problems for them and should not be considered a critical situation for the overall force.
• The quality of new recruits continues to deteriorate. As previously reported, in the final phase of the battle for Avdiivka, a group of POWs captured in February had been recruited in mid-January. This suggests hasty efforts to meet objectives by deploying available human resources despite a lack of adequate training. While the high burn rate of fresh recruits may not have an immediate impact on the Russian army, it is anticipated to significantly affect their combat readiness in the months to come.
• Despite setbacks in fortification construction timelines, it would be incorrect to claim that no progress has been made at all. Engineering units are actively involved in ongoing efforts to prepare defensive positions, incorporating a mix of wood, concrete, and metal constructions in some instances. Our analysis indicates the insufficient scale of these efforts, resulting in a shortage of engineering units, equipment, and personnel, stems from a lack of coordinated national-scale initiatives. This implies that Russian forces are likely to encounter these defenses at some point, and it remains uncertain whether they will be able to achieve a breakthrough and encirclement of another large settlement.

The situation for Ukrainian forces remains very difficult, marked by a multitude of factors such as delayed mobilization efforts, insufficient fortification construction, missteps during the 2023 campaign, and notably, a critical failure of partners to deliver promised ammunition despite previous commitments. As our team highlighted in December, Ukraine will likely experience further territorial losses, particularly in areas gained during the summer of 2023. However, we do not foresee a complete collapse of the front, as Russian forces continue to expend resources disproportionately for relatively minor gains. Despite attempting to maximize advantages in the most favorable situation since 2022, their progress lacks the necessary scale to cause a collapse of Ukrainian forces. This suggests that after exhausting their offensive potential, they will be compelled to adopt a defensive stance – a scenario that could work in Ukraine's favor if the West provides sufficient military aid to back up Ukrainian mobilization efforts.

https://twitter.com/baklitskiy/status/1763138971125608921

Nothing new on strategic issues in Pres Putin's address to Federal Assembly so far. Sarmat was put on combat duty, will be demonstrated soon. Tsircon has been used in Ukraine. US accusations on nukes in space - unfounded, aimed at dragging Russia into negotiations on US terms

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1763133470748876961

Putin's even more focused on the war in Ukraine than in his usual speeches. There's a lot of mobilization rhetoric: "the absolute majority of Russians" support it, "everyone" is working together for Russia's "common victory"

https://twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1763108415629304189

Ukrainian forces managed to hit an awards ceremony for Russia's 155th Separate Naval Infantry Regiment w/ 2 HIMARS rockets Tues. evening, near Elenovke, Donetsk. 19 troops reportedly killed, 13 wounded including unit commander. (partial corroboration from Russian TG channels)

 

[themeistersinger]

Putin Sends Message of Defiance to West in State of Nation Address - The Moscow Times

President Vladimir Putin delivered his annual State of the Nation address on Thursday, using the speech to send a message of defiance to the West, which he accused of instigating the war in Ukraine, but also to highlight state social support programs and the Russian economy's resilience against...

www.themoscowtimes.com

Putin accused the West of forcing Russia into an arms race and said Moscow’s “strategic nuclear forces are in a state of full readiness for use,” though he warned that a global nuclear conflict would “destroy civilization.”

“They [in the West] should finally understand — and I just told them — that we too have weapons that can destroy targets on their territories,” he said.

“We remember the fate of those who sent their contingents to the territory of our country,” Putin continued, alluding to Nazi Germany's attack on the Soviet Union. “Now the consequences for the potential interventionists will be much more tragic.”

 

[themeistersinger]

‘Shock therapy:’ War tourism in Ukraine attracts foreigners to see scars of Russia's invasion

Driving out of Kyiv the roads tell the dark history of the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion. A low buzzing sound echoes across the highway as hundreds of cars drive toward the suburb of Bucha. “It’s from tanks and heavy vehicles. They left these cuts in the asphalt that produce this...

kyivindependent.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Opinion: 6 obstacles to peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia

There is consensus among observers of Russia’s war against Ukraine that it should end as soon as possible. Most Ukrainians couldn’t agree more. Today, one suspects, many Russians would also not mind ceasing the carnage. Why, then, is there still not – and likely will not be any time

kyivindependent.com

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine may be having issues on the ground but they continue to bleed the Russians in the air and sea.

Russia's lost 10 Su-34s and two Su-35s this month, along with one A-50 aircraft.

 

[Chadstroma]

The Bad News Bundeswehr: An Examination of the Truly Dire State of Germany's Military

Last February, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that the country was going to invest substantially in its military. But not much has happened since then. And now Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht has been replaced. DER SPIEGEL takes a closer look at what is ailing the Bundeswehr.

www.spiegel.de

This article is originally from January 2023

Why is the article in English but the preferences on cookies etc in Deutch?

I didn't read but the German military has been a mess for a long time. They have spent a little over 1% of their GDP on military since the early 90's. They are in desperate need of modernization and replacing a lot of equipment that they just haven't maintained.

They have committed to spending 2% (as NATO requires) "into the 2030's and beyond"

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Diva jets: Why ‘sensitive’ F-16s will be hard work for Ukraine

The multi-role Western fighters will help Ukraine even the odds but it won’t be easy to use the “high maintenance” jets in wartime.

www.politico.eu

But getting the fighters flying will be hugely difficult. The bases will be prime targets for Russian attack, the planes themselves will be marked by Russian air defense systems, repairing them will be a challenge and even using unprepared runways could sabotage the delicate aircraft.

Tom Richter, a former U.S. Marine pilot who has flown the F-16 when in the National Guard, said the plane is “a sensitive beast” compared to the Soviet-era MiG and Sukhoi jets the Ukrainians are used to flying and maintaining.

“If you ever walked up and put your hands on a MiG-29 at an air show and then walked right over and put your hands on an F-16, you can feel just from the outside how the F-16 is highly engineered. It is a prima donna, and it is very sensitive and needs high maintenance,” said Richter, who used the call sign T-Bone. The Soviet planes are more “rough and tumble” and can fly off poorly maintained airfields, and need less maintenance.

In a different situation, Ukraine would build modern bases and runways to host the jets, but that's not possible during the war.

"Falcons indeed need some adaptation — this is the preparation of the runways because the landing gear is more delicate in the MiGs, the wheels are small, the air intakes are low to the strip, there may be a danger of swallowing objects. But all this can be solved. There are risks for all aviation,” Yuriy Ihnat, spokesperson of the Ukrainian air force, told POLITICO.

That care will extend to deploying teams with sealant to cover cracks and crevices or uneven concrete on runways as close to the frontline as possible to avoid making an obvious target out of just a few well-maintained sites, said Justin Bronk with the Royal United Services Institute think tank.

“For a start, runways and taxi routes at multiple sites will need to be smooth and constantly checked for debris given how susceptible the low-slung, single-engine F-16s are to ground debris compared to MiG-29s,” he said.

Finland: Ukraine is free to bomb Russia with our weapons

Helsinki also urged Germany to “seriously consider” sending long-range Taurus cruise missiles to help Kyiv.

www.politico.eu

Ukraine can use weapons provided by Finland to hit targets on Russian soil, senior officials in Helsinki said.

Finland's Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen said his country has not set any restrictions on what Ukraine can do with the weapons it provides, Finnish broadcaster Yle reported on Thursday. Häkkänen added that blocks have been imposed mainly by countries which have provided Ukraine with long-range weapons systems.

“If necessary, Ukraine should also strike military targets on the Russian side. It is a completely legitimate defensive battle that Ukraine is waging. The U.N. Charter allows military targets to be attacked across land borders,” said Jukka Kopra, chair of the Finnish parliamentary defense committee.

Macron stands by remarks about sending troops to Ukraine

French president has faced a barrage of criticism, but said his comments were “weighed, thought through and measured.”

www.politico.eu

French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday said his refusal to rule out the prospect of sending Western troops to Ukraine was intentional, despite the uproar it has provoked.

Macron swept aside the barrage of criticism he has faced in France and on the international stage and insisted his statements on Russian President Vladimir Putin's aggression against Ukraine were carefully thought out.

"These are sufficiently serious issues; every one of the words that I say on this issue is weighed, thought through and measured," Macron told reporters on the sidelines of a visit to the 2024 Olympic village near Paris. But he refused to answer any further questions on the topic.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

UK Is Pushing Germany to Send Taurus Missiles to Ukraine

The UK government has privately urged Germany to provide long-range Taurus missiles to the government in Kyiv as London expressed irritation over comments made by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz about British activity in Ukraine.

www.bloomberg.com

The UK government has privately urged Germany to provide long-range Taurus missiles to the government in Kyiv as London expressed irritation over comments made by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz about British activity in Ukraine.
Senior British ministers and officials have repeatedly made clear to Germany that Ukraine badly needs its Taurus missiles, according to people familiar with the matter. The UK offered solutions to Berlin’s resistance to sending them, including a swap deal that would see Britain supply Kyiv with more of its own Storm Shadow missiles, and Germany then restock the UK with replacement long-range missiles.
Germany should stop making excuses, said one British official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations between the countries.
“Scholz’s behavior has showed that as far as the security of Europe goes he is the wrong man, in the wrong job, at the wrong time,” former Defense Secretary Ben Wallace told the Evening Standard newspaper on Thursday.

https://twitter.com/paulmcleary/status/1763566455369486549

EU countries have come up with "over 50%" of the money needed to buy hundreds of thousands of artillery shells from non-EU countries for Ukraine, Lt. Gen. Karel Řehka, the chief of the Czechia’s general staff, tells me.

https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1763558830682583515

Russian troops are amassing their forces in eastern Ukraine. One of the "powerful breakthrough attempts" is currently taking place near the town of Chasiv Yar in the Bakhmut district of Donetsk Oblast, Ilya Yevlash, spokesman for the Khortytsia troop grouping told Radio Liberty.

The situation near Chasiv Yar is very tense: the Russians are moving their main forces there, trying to put pressure in the direction of Chasiv Yar, as this settlement is now a key one for them. Access to it will open a favorable springboard for an offensive on Kostiantynivka.
Currently, the main target of the occupiers in Donetsk Oblast is the Kramatorsk-Slovyansk agglomeration.

https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1763576048493514768

Do as I say, not as I do:

Spanish PM Pedro Sanchez often talks about his support for Ukraine -- but Spain has also **doubled** its purchases of Russian gas since the invasion of Ukraine, throwing a financial lifeline to Putin

~20% of the gas Spain imported in 2023 was Russian

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1763577145543037425

The latest British Army Review is devoted to a retrospective, well sourced, on various aspects of the first days and weeks of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
'The decision to employ flooding as a defence on 25th February, however, was probably the reason the Ukrainian capital did not fall. “The 72nd Brigade and Irpin River saved Kyiv. But mostly the river. It’s a kind of miracle… the river turned into a sea.”' https://chacr.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/BAR-187-compressed.pdf
"Even after interviewing key players in the decision to flood the Irpin River, it remains unclear if the flooding emerged as a formal ... option before the 24th. Whether or not it had been considered, Ukrainian adaptability succeeded where Russia’s failed" https://chacr.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/BAR-187-compressed.pdf

https://twitter.com/TorontoStar/status/1763271615821799585

Canada willing to send troops to Ukraine in noncombat role, Defence Minister Bill Blair says

https://twitter.com/markmackinnon/status/1763567478527975523

Sounds like what's being contemplated is the largely symbolic gesture of returning Canadian troops to Ukraine to conduct training missions - far from the frontline - as they did before the 2022 invasion. Watch for more stomping about by Moscow...

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1763160820903485557

'At a meeting of EU ambassadors yesterday, France continued to demand the EPF only reimburse weapons manufactured in the EU or Norway, arguing that EU money spent to help Ukraine should simultaneously develop the bloc’s defence industry...'

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1763597327988564379

French planes intercepted Russian Su-30 fighters and an An-72 transport aircraft over the Baltic Sea

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1763496926354317716

WSJ has seen the 17-page terms that Russia wanted to impose on Ukraine in *April* 2022. "those objectives remain largely unchanged after two years of fighting: Turn Ukraine into a neutered state permanently vulnerable to Russian military aggression."

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1763152200539226278

Since the beginning of the year, Ukraine claims to have shot down or hit a total of 15 aircraft. 10 Su-34, 2 Su-35, 2 A-50 and 1Il-22.

The vast majority of these have not yet been confirmed by open sources.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1763510541518021033

The Russian defence industry significantly increased its production output in 2023. This was achieved by expanding the workforce to roughly 3.5 million people, increasing shift patterns and expanding existing production lines, coupled with bringing idle production capacity back into service.

A significant proportion of this increased output comes from refurbishment and modernisation of existing stocks rather than new production. For example, the vast majority of main battle tanks produced in 2023 consisted of refurbished vehicles.

Artillery munition production rose sharply in 2023 and will likely increase further in 2024. However, munition production is likely to peak in the next 12 months due to capacity constraints.

Although the defence industry is unable to fully meet the demands of Russian operations against Ukraine, it is almost certainly capable of delivering a materiel advantage over Ukraine throughout 2024.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1763394736331645203

Ukrainian NCOs from the Omega SOF unit conducting training operations in Norway this winter.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1763482622934634807

Russian military reporter Kharchenko says Ukrainians reached production of 100,000 fpv drones per month. Some of them operate at a distance of 10km beyond the frontline.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1763552591059808623

Explosions and smoke reported rising from the Russian occupied Gvardeyskoye airbase in Crimea this morning after a reported Ukrainian cruise missile attack.

https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1763574021579301170

A number of explosions were heard in the occupied Crimea, and Russian air defense systems were operating in the sky. Local media report an alleged hit to a Russian military base in the village of Hvardiyske, reported the Telegram channel Crimean Wind.

@Chadstroma some A-50 info here:

I've read one was damaged in Belarus at one point, but unsure if that one is repaired or not.

https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1763545912687591621

How many active A-50 aircraft are left in Russia? At least two were airborne from the Ivanovo-Severny airfield during the last two weeks, as evidenced by a comparison of @planet images taken on Feb. 29 (where they can be seen) and Feb. 14 (where they're absent).
Along with the image of the A-50 in Taganrog, captured on Feb. 29 but not observed there the day before, this brings the total number of 3 confirmed A-50 aircraft in the air during the last two weeks (excluding the one downed on Feb. 23).
Add three more from Ivanovo, which seem not to be airborne for weeks, as historical imagery shows: 2 with the engines and in a plowed area , 1 with the engines in an unplowed area (not 100% clear if operational or not).
This gives us a grand total of max 6 aircraft. According to @IISS_org, Russia had 9 operational A-50s before the full-scale war with Ukraine. Two were downed, so one more A-50 may be operating somewhere in the Urals/Far East (historical photo from Taganrog taken in 2013).

 

[Orange&Blue]

This feels like we are marching toward WW3 and all keeping our head in the sand about it

I've been saying that for two years. I'm convinced WW3 is Putin's strong desire. Takes too many words to fully explain and I get depressed doing so, but way back in the earliest days of this invasion I stated this is the most dangerous time in the history of the world. After two years I feel helpless and look into bomb shelter construction all the time. I know it's melodramatic, but I'm no survivalist hoarder type with three years supply of canned goods in storage. I'm someone born and raised on a highly secretive military base with a dozen friends currently employed in high end jobs there or retired from them. The dude who topped the executive branch of the civilian operation on base for a decade+, which is mostly highly classified weapons R&D, is a friend of mine since kindergarten. Retired now and as dark as me about this topic. Many here are moving far away from civilization when they retire.

Russia wins and the world destabilizes as Ukraine falls into a guerilla nightmare. Strong chance
Russia gets close to losing and the nukes fly.

The unintended consequences of assassinating Putin are a known unknown, but I'd take the shot if I had it.

What if Russia wins.

it sickens me to consider it the better option at this point. Today's nukes aren't like those love taps we dropped on Japan. I'm still sickened by the fools here and elsewhere who mocked Russia's comedic military having farmers towing away their tanks. I'm sickened the western media pushed that narrative

and I tried explaining here Russia was already winning, taking land, leveling cities, building the land bridge to Crimea. I'm sickened by the fact I can start 50 different sentences with I'm sickened.

Thanks for sharing. I agree with most of your post. One thing I will say is that my gut doesn't fear any of the bigger countries going nuclear. Nobody wins. Most countries realize that. It's the Irans that scare me.

n Korea as well

 

[beer 30]

‘Shock therapy:’ War tourism in Ukraine attracts foreigners to see scars of Russia's invasion

Driving out of Kyiv the roads tell the dark history of the early days of Russia’s full-scale invasion. A low buzzing sound echoes across the highway as hundreds of cars drive toward the suburb of Bucha. “It’s from tanks and heavy vehicles. They left these cuts in the asphalt that produce this...

kyivindependent.com

Very, very odd times we live in

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Ukraine’s military is set to receive the first of what may be hundreds of thousands of 155mm artillery shells as part of an international effort to forage foreign stockpiles as US efforts to send more aid remain hung up in Congress.
Ukraine could see the first shells arrive within weeks under the initiative, which has the Czech Republic serving as the middleman to link governments willing to finance the purchase of excess 155mm shells in third countries, Jan Jires, the country’s director general for defense policy and strategy, said in an interview in Washington.
Jires said a number of European countries are part of the initiative. He didn’t identify what nations are funding the purchases or whose stockpiles are being tapped but said deliveries are likely to be disclosed after their arrival.

https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1763645774687060033

The Dutch government has allocated a new military aid package for the Ukrainian Defense Forces. It includes watercraft and money for artillery shells, reported the Ministry of Defense of the Netherlands.

Syrskyi dissatisfied with some brigade commanders, hints at personnel changes

Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi on March 2 said he was forced to make "personnel decisions" regarding some eastern front commanders whose actions "threaten the life and health" of their soldiers.

kyivindependent.com

Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi on March 2 said he was forced to make "personnel decisions" regarding some eastern front brigade commanders whose actions "threaten the life and health" of their soldiers.

Syrskyi replaced Valerii Zaluzhnyi as the commander-in-chief on Feb. 8 amid wider personnel changes in the military's leadership. Ukraine has been facing mounting challenges on the battlefield in recent months, as U.S. military aid remains blocked while Russia ramps up pressure along the front.

"I continue to work on the eastern front. Within three days, it became completely clear why... some brigades manage to hold back enemy attacks and maintain their positions, while others do not, "Syrskyi said on his Telegram channel.

"First of all, it depends on the brigade's commander, his training, experience, and his ability to make adequate and balanced decisions," he stressed.

Syrskyi said he sent specialists to brigades facing problems to assist and provide expertise. He also said that based on reports from commanders, Syrskyi made all necessary decisions regarding reserves and supplies of ammunition, drones, and other equipment.

Leaked audio shows Germany discussed possible Taurus missiles delivery to Ukraine: Reports

German military officials also discussed possible targets including the Kerch Bridge linking Russia and occupied Crimea, according to media reports.

www.politico.eu

Germany confirms leak of Bundeswehr Ukraine war talks – DW – 03/02/2024

Chancellor Olaf Scholz has pledged a quick investigation into Russian leaks of secret Ukrainian war talks. Bundeswehr has confirmed the talks were real, but couldn't rule out that the recording had been edited.

www.dw.com

On Saturday, Germany's Defense Ministry confirmed the authenticity of a recording of a confidential discussion between high-ranking Bundeswehr officers regarding the war in Ukraine that was leaked by Russian state media.

"According to our assessment, a conversation in the Air Force was intercepted. We cannot currently say with certainty whether changes were made to the recorded or written version that is circulating on social media," a spokeswoman for the ministry said.

(S+) Spionage-Verdacht bei der Bundeswehr: MAD ermittelt wegen in Russland geleaktem Audio

Russische Propagandakanäle haben eine Aufzeichnung einer internen Besprechung von Luftwaffenoffizieren veröffentlicht. Die Aufnahme ist vermutlich authentisch, der Militärgeheimdienst hat Ermittlungen eingeleitet.

www.spiegel.de

An initial analysis of the tape shows that the Air Force officers were quite careless at the meeting. For example, the virtual meeting did not take place via a secure line, but via the WebEx platform, which was relatively easy to intercept.
In addition, at least one of the participants in the meeting was in Singapore and presumably participated in the meeting via his mobile phone. In view of the explosive nature of the issues, an encrypted line would have had to be used in this case, as the Bundeswehr's regulations are clear for such discussions on military internals.

https://twitter.com/bopanc/status/1763940787782377497

German officials habitually use unsecured channels such as WebEx, WhatsApp etc. The #TaurusLeaks scandal could help improve security

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine destroyed 13 Russian military aircraft in 2 weeks. How?

Ukraine reported the downing of 13 Russian warplanes within the last two weeks, among the highest Russian Air Force losses since the early days of the full-scale invasion. This list includes 10 Su-34 fighter bombers, two Su-35 fighter jets, and one more rare A-50 military spy plane. Another...

kyivindependent.com

In the recent more aggressive attacks against Ukrainian troops in the east, Russian forces have "overcome the fear" of using aircraft directly over the battlefield, Ukraine's Centre for Defense Strategies wrote in one of its latest summaries.

This helped the Russian troops but resulted in the loss of aviation.

Guided aerial bombs, which Russia regularly drops from Su-34 and Su-35 planes to attack front-line settlements, remain one of its weapons that Ukraine is not yet able to counter.

Yuriy Ihnat, Air Force spokesman, said on national television on Feb. 29 that these days, hundreds of such bombs have been launched at Ukrainian positions in the Avdiivka sector.

"To drop a bomb, Russia needs a distance of under 100 kilometers — this is 30–40 kilometers, sometimes even closer. It all depends on the modification of the bomb, the flight distance, the altitude of the aircraft," Oleksandr Kovalenko, military analyst and co-founder of the Information Resistance project, told the Kyiv Independent.

Ukraine now has "tools" to destroy planes "at quite long distances," Ihnat told the Kyiv Independent, explaining the recent uptick.

"Ukraine has more means to reach the enemy. And it is very important to provide Ukraine with more systems and ammunition (for those tools) — anti-aircraft-guided missiles. They are produced slowly, and we have a serious expense," the Air Force spokesman added.

Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow at the U.K.-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), told BBC that Russia's recent losses in aviation may be due to the fact that "Ukraine is being more aggressive with risking Patriot launchers close to the front lines."

Ukraine's Air Forces don't comment on such claims, and it is unknown what kind of weapons the Ukrainian military used for the rapid destruction of Russian aviation.

Ukraine has a layered air defense system: medium-range systems include IRIS-T, NASAMS, and long-range ones — Patriot, SAMP/T, and S-300.

The destruction of numerous aircraft over the past two weeks has helped push Russian planes away from the front line and decrease the intensity of the use of aerial bombs, Ihnat said.

"Russia realizes that we have something to destroy them with. Therefore, after the destruction of so many aircraft, they will be less aggressive," he told the Kyiv Independent.

At the same time, he said, Russia still has enough planes in its arsenal for war, and the issue is the number of weapons — bombs and missiles.
Kovalenko calls the Su-34 Russia's "main working aircraft" for guided bomb attacks on Ukrainian military fortified areas and defense lines.

"They (Russia) understand that every flight of the Su-34 is risky and could end in a shootdown. On the other hand, they can't do anything if they don't use them, as they can only attack with them. For Russia, there's no alternative. Fly and die."

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1763939218508628275

The confirmation that the commander of the Russian 36th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade (в/ч 06705) of the 29th Combined Arms Army (Eastern Military District), Colonel Gusein Musaev, was among the killed in Ukrainian strikes on the training ground in Trudivske, Donetsk Oblast of Ukraine, on February 20.

On March 1, fighter jets were launched from the Lielvārde military base in Latvia to intercept Russian aircraft, reported the Latvian Air Force.

For the first time, German Eurofighter multi-role fighters took off from this base. They went to intercept Russian military aircraft that were near Latvian territory.

Surprisingly Weak Ukrainian Defenses Help Russian Advance

Ukraine only built a sparse, rudimentary defensive line outside Avdiivka. Russia is taking advantage.

www.nytimes.com

Russian forces continue to make small but rapid gains outside of the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka, attributable in part to dwindling Ukrainian ammunition and declining Western aid.
But there’s another reason the Kremlin’s troops are advancing in the area: poor Ukrainian defenses.
Sparse, rudimentary trench lines populate the area west of Avdiivka that Ukraine is trying to defend, according to a Times review of imagery by Planet Labs, a commercial satellite company. These trench lines lack many of the additional fortifications that could help slow Russian tanks and help defend major roads and important terrain.
Avdiivka became the site of a fierce standoff over the last nine months, emerging as one of the bloodiest battles of the war. When Russia captured the city on Feb. 17, its first major gain since last May, the Ukrainian Army claimed it had secured defensive lines outside the city.
But Russian troops have captured three villages to the west of Avdiivka in the span of a week, and they are contesting at least one other.
Satellite imagery at the scale shown here is widely available. U.S. officials said privately that it was concerning that Ukraine did not shore up its defensive lines early or well enough, and that it may now face the consequences as Russian units advance slowly but steadily beyond Avdiivka.
British military intelligence said on Thursday that Russian forces had advanced to about four miles from the center of Avdiivka in the past two weeks, a small but unusually rapid advance compared with previous offensive operations.
Ukrainian commanders have had ample time to prepare defenses outside Avdiivka. The area has been under attack since 2014, and Ukraine has had a tenuous hold on it since Russia launched its full-scale invasion two years ago.
But the Ukrainian defenses outside Avdiivka show rudimentary earthen fortifications, often with a connecting trench for infantry troops to reach firing positions closest to the enemy, but little else.

There are many possible reasons for Ukraine’s apparent lack of defenses.
Ukrainian officials may have been too focused on offensive operations last year to dedicate the necessary resources to building the kind of multiple trenches and tank traps that Russian engineers built since late 2022 in the country’s south, the U.S. officials and military experts said.
“Who cared and who considered it as an option — because it’s a very costly option — the construction of defensive lines? No one,” said Serhiy Hrabskyi, a retired Ukrainian Army colonel, noting that Ukraine had few resources to spare at the time.
There may have also been a psychological element at play, the U.S. officials said. If Ukrainian troops heavily mined certain areas to thwart Russian advances, it would be a tacit acknowledgement that they were unlikely to carry out offensive operations in the same area at a future date. They’d effectively be writing off that territory to the Russian military, the officials said.
While Moscow began building defensive lines in the south more than half a year before Kyiv’s counteroffensive, Ukraine appeared to have begun plans for new fortifications only three months ago, when government officials announced the creation of a working group to coordinate efforts between civilian and military authorities.
Responsibility for building the first line of defense would fall to the military units stationed in the area, the officials said, while the next defensive lines would be built by civilian authorities, with the help of private contractors. Denys Shmyhal, Ukraine’s prime minister, said that some 30 billion Ukrainian hryvnias, about $800 million, had been allocated for fortifications this year.
Areas in the eastern Donetsk region, where Avdiivka is, “will receive maximum attention,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said during a visit near the front line in late November, noting the “need to boost and accelerate the construction of structures.”
But Pasi Paroinen, an analyst from the Black Bird Group, which analyzes satellite imagery and social media content from the battlefield, said that “nothing significant has happened” since Mr. Zelensky’s visit.
Outside of Avdiivka, Mr. Paroinen added, “there are new positions being prepared, but they do not yet constitute a particularly formidable defensive line” and are not comparable in scale to Russia’s fortifications in the south.