*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (9 Viewers)

[Don't Toews Me]

Hundreds of Ukrainian Troops Feared Captured or Missing in Chaotic Retreat

The fall of Avdiivka to Russia may be more significant than it initially seemed as Ukraine struggles with morale and recruitment.

www.nytimes.com

Hundreds of Ukrainian troops may have been captured by advancing Russian units or disappeared during Ukraine’s chaotic retreat from the eastern city of Avdiivka, according to senior Western officials and soldiers fighting for Ukraine, a devastating loss that could deal a blow to already weakening morale.
The Russian capture of Avdiivka has emerged as a significant symbolic loss for Ukrainian troops, a sign of the battlefield impact of the failure of the U.S. Congress, so far, to approve more military assistance as dwindling supplies of artillery shells make it even harder to hold the line.
Estimates of how many Ukrainians were captured or missing vary, and a precise count may not be possible until Ukraine solidifies new defensive lines outside the city. But two soldiers with knowledge of Ukraine’s retreat estimated that 850 to 1,000 soldiers appear to have been captured or are unaccounted for. The Western officials said that range seemed accurate.
American officials say the loss of Avdiivka is not a significant strategic setback, arguing that Russian gains in eastern Ukraine will not necessarily lead to any collapse of Ukrainian lines and that Moscow is unlikely to be able to follow up with another major offensive.
But the capture of hundreds of soldiers could change that calculus. American officials have said in recent days that morale was already eroding among Ukrainian troops, in the wake of a failed counteroffensive last year and the removal of a top commander. Because of those problems, the officials said, Ukraine’s military has struggled with recruitment.

Dmytro Lykhovii, a spokesman for General Tarnavsky, disputed reports that hundreds of soldiers were captured, calling it misinformation. But he acknowledged that Russia had captured some service members and that a “certain number” of soldiers were missing.
But some soldiers and Western officials said a failure to execute an orderly withdrawal, and the chaos that unfolded Friday and Saturday as the defenses collapsed, was directly responsible for what appears to be a significant number of soldiers captured.
They said the Ukrainian withdrawal was ill-planned and began too late. The soldiers and Western officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence assessments that are at odds with Ukrainian government statements.
Retreating under withering artillery fire, drones and airstrikes is one of the most difficult military maneuvers, challenging commanders to minimize loss of life and allow units to fall back without ceding more land than intended.
Based on interviews with soldiers, Ukraine’s forces were unprepared for how quickly the Russian advance in Avdiivka gathered speed last week.

In Avdiivka, Ukraine appeared to have waited too long to start withdrawing and the frantic retreat quickly turned costly.
For the Ukrainians, the challenge of pulling out of Avdiivka was compounded by the fact Russia had surrounded the city on nearly three sides. A single paved road was the most viable way into and out of the city. That route, which Ukrainian troops nicknamed the road of life, came under direct threat earlier this month, making the withdrawal far more dangerous.
When Ukrainian forces began pulling back, unverified open source videos and photos showed units retreating under artillery fire and bodies scattered along roads and in tree lines. Ukrainian military units have long struggled to communicate with each other because they often have different radio equipment. Soldiers with knowledge of the retreat said the communication problems were a factor in the withdrawal, leading to soldiers being captured, killed and wounded.
The soldiers interviewed by The New York Times suggested that some units pulled back before others were aware of the retreat. That put the units left behind at risk of encirclement by the Russians.

The Kremlin itself does not appear to have been prepared for the speed of the Ukrainian collapse in Avdiivka. Often Kremlin propaganda pushed through the state-controlled news media leads the themes on Russian social media, said Jonathan Teubner, the chief executive of FilterLabs AI, which studies Russian messaging and public opinion. But as the Ukrainian defense in Avdiivka collapsed, the discussions on Russian social media started shifting before the Kremlin settled on new messaging.
“Russia wasn’t really prepped for this either in terms of a prepared propaganda blitz,” Mr. Teubner said. “They have now pounced on it, but haven’t managed to launch a successful coordinated messaging campaign yet.”

Report: North Korean missile fired by Russia against Ukraine contained US and European components

A North Korean ballistic missile fired last month by the Russian military in Ukraine contained hundreds of components that trace back to companies in the US and Europe, according to a new report.

The findings mark the first public identification of North Korea’s reliance on foreign technology for its missile program and underscore the persistent problem facing the Biden administration as it tries to keep cheap, Western-made microelectronics intended for civilian use from winding up in weapons used by North Korea, Iran and Russia.

The UK-based investigative organization Conflict Armament Research, or CAR, directly examined 290 components from remnants of a North Korean ballistic missile recovered in January from Kharkiv, Ukraine, and found that 75% of the components were designed and sold by companies incorporated in the United States, according to the report shared first with CNN.

A further 16% of the components found in the missile were linked to companies incorporated in Europe, the researchers found, and 9% to companies incorporated in Asia. These components primarily comprised the missile’s navigation system and could be traced to 26 companies headquartered in the US, China, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, Switzerland and Taiwan, the report says.

 

[Orange&Blue]

I read something that skilled machinists and other trades that are in high demand now make more money than lawyers and white collar workers in Russia.

huge demand even for US. navy is having a horrible time getting ship production due to lack of skilled tradesman.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

German lawmakers twist Scholz’s arm on long-range missiles for Kyiv

MPs in ruling coalition set to vote this week on sending long-delayed Taurus to Ukraine

www.ft.com

Lawmakers in Germany’s ruling coalition are set to vote this week on a motion that could finally push Chancellor Olaf Scholz to deliver long-range precision Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine.
A draft resolution prepared by the three groups in the government’s parliamentary majority and seen by the Financial Times requests “the delivery of additionally necessary long-range weapon systems” for Kyiv which could strike “far in the rear area of the Russian aggressor”.
While non-binding, the successful passage of the motion could leave Scholz symbolically isolated. With the mainstream opposition Christian Democratic Union in favour, the chancellor’s resistance to the missiles’ delivery to Kyiv would be seen as being supported only by MPs of the hard left and hard right.
In a sign of the ongoing sensitivity around dispatch of this type of ordnance, the text does not mention Taurus by name, even though it is the only weapon in the German military arsenal that currently meets the criteria set out in the proposal.

Ukraine Says It Shot Down All 23 Russian Drones Early Tuesday

Ukraine says it shot down all 23 Shahed drones and missiles launched from Russia early on Tuesday, the Air Force said in a post on Telegram.

www.bloomberg.com

Ukraine says it shot down all 23 Shahed drones and missiles launched from Russia early on Tuesday, the Air Force said in a post on Telegram.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-russia-will-push-further-into-ukraine-after-chaotic-fall-avdiivka-2024-02-20/

Shoigu said Russian forces had also taken control of the village of Krynky in Ukraine's southern Kherson region. Ukraine's southern military command said its troops had held their positions on the left bank of River Dnipro and said Russian attacks were unsuccessful.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1760012713126965646

Russian serviceman GREY ZONE, along with others, dismiss Shoygu’s claim that Krynky on the left bank of Dnipro river were cleared of UA forces.

https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/1759979003543179745

A video is circulating on Telegram this afternoon showing the execution of two Ukrainian prisoners of war by Russian soldiers near Robotyne. Both soldiers were ordered out of the trench and then shot as they held onto each other.

^I've seen the video. I don't think it is particularly appropriate to post here.

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1759713919944229050

On February 15, Russian troops committed a warcrime and shot five soldiers of Ukrainian 110th Mechanized Brigade, who were wounded and surrendered to them at Zenit position near Avdiivka.

Ivan Zhytnyk, Andryi Dubnytskyi, Heorhyi Pavlov, Oleksandr Zinchuk and Mykola Savosyk

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1760033658419777885

Two Spanish police officials confirmed to @mschwirtz and @ConstantMeheut that Maksim Kuzminov, the Russian pilot who defected to Ukraine, was indeed murdered in a coastal resort. Ukrainian officials apparently warned him that he needed to stay in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/CarlaBabbVOA/status/1760029878366154863

There is US $ available to give #Ukraine weapons, but not any to replace those US weapons stockpiles.
Asked why Pentagon isn't using available $ to give Ukraine more, under the expectation that a supplemental bill will eventually pass, @DepPentPressSec says "because it's a risk"

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1760020031868678183

According to reports, Ukrainian strikes with HIMARS targeted Russian military personnel from the 39th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade (в/ч 35390, 68th Army Corps) at the training ground in the settlement of Trudivske, Donetsk Oblast of Ukraine, on the morning of February 20.

The strikes were said to cause many casualties within Russian ranks (+65 killed), one source said.

Russian voenkor Roman Saponkov wrote: "Strike at the training ground again. People lined up in anticipation of the arrival of an important commander. Interestingly, the commander never arrived".

 

[Chadstroma]

I saw a report on the BBC that the pilot who defected and flew the helo to Ukraine was found shot to death in Spain.

 

[themeistersinger]

Russia Designates U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham as ‘Terrorist’ - The Moscow Times

Russia’s state financial watchdog Rosfinmonitoring has added U.S.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/JosephPolitano/status/1760012404207845503

German weapon and ammo backlogs continue rising to new highs, exceeding triple their pre-Russian-invasion levels, propelled forward by foreign demand.

Backlogs now represent roughly 5 years of manufacturing output at current production rates.
German weapon and ammo production closed out 2023 at record highs, but this still hasn't been enough to make a major dent in the backlog of orders that started growing since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine

France Is Struggling to Pay for Ukraine Aid as Budget Stretched

Massive spending cuts have left the French government struggling to put together funding for a package of as much as €3 billion ($3.2 billion) in military aid to Ukraine.

www.bloomberg.com

Massive spending cuts have left the French government struggling to put together funding for a package of as much as €3 billion ($3.2 billion) in military aid to Ukraine.
The defense, foreign affairs and finance ministries will be asked to redirect funds and find savings in order to pay for equipment ranging from missiles to artillery, people familiar with the matter said, without giving details as discussions are ongoing.
The government’s headroom is limited after it lowered its 2024 GDP forecast on Sunday and said it needs to save €10 billion to meet commitments to narrow its budget deficit. And it has promised costly measures to help farmers, who have been protesting over rising costs, cheap imports and red tape.
France has also been criticized for a lack of transparency over its assistance to Ukraine, leading to accusations it isn’t doing as much as European and NATO partners. The Ukrainian military is facing a critical shortage of ammunition as Russia’s full-scale invasion reaches its two-year mark this week.
“All this already represents a great deal, but we’re determined to do even more,” President Emmanuel Macron said as he announced the new package in Paris on Friday, standing alongside Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy. This was the first time France has given figures for its aid.
The financing of the latest support will have to be found without making formal changes to this year’s budget, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing confidential planning. One of the people added that €400 million earmarked to fund the armed forces through 2027 doesn’t include capacity for additional aid, complicating the task. A French Defense Ministry spokesperson didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

https://twitter.com/MassDara/status/1760039861455663444

A thread on Avdiivka, what it its loss says about Russian strategy and capabilities, and what they may try to do next. /1
At Avdiivka, multiple Russian brigade and regiment elements attacked intensely for five months. They gained 31 kilometers for an estimated cost of over 600 armored vehicles @naalsio. /2
List of attacking Russian units: 7 brigade + 5 regimental elements. Ukraine mounted a strong defense + 9 years of prepared defenses. Ultimately it it was not enough given the pressure applied. Russian forces overwhelmed UAF units with fires, assault teams, and air attacks. /3
It may seems like a large force against one defended city. However, it’s consistent with Russian planning and doctrine on this point based on the frontage that units of this size are supposed to have Still, those losses are very steep, suggesting issues remain. /4
Russian casualties are hard to calculate just yet, with ranges from various social media and Ukrainian accounts 16K-47K casualties. Shoigu falsely claims “minimal losses” for Avdiivka. And that the Avdiivka operation will be “taught in textbooks” /5
Ukrainian authorities withdrew and preserved what they could. Reinforcements were brought in to cover the withdrawal but by that time, Russia already had fire control of one of the last routes out. Not everyone made it out, including wounded. /6
The evacuating UAF 110th brigade said that Russian forces shot some of the wounded. If confirmed, this would be a war crime and break of Geneva Convention protocols. /7
If Russian forces continue to advance past Avdiivka and capture route networks, including west of Bakhmut, they eventually threaten a more strategic location, Pokrovsk, around 80KM away. /8
What’s next for Russian forces? They know about Ukrainian rationing, delays in vital American military assistance, and UAF manning issues. Their strategy since the fall of 2023 has been to apply pressure along the front to fix UAF forces and try to attrit/exhaust them. /9
Russian military leaders’ training and mindset will tell them that now is the time to press forward on objectives: UAF units have ammunition and manpower deficits, American assistance is delayed, western ammo production targets are not reached. /10
Russian forces have a 5:1 fires advantage and are regenerating combat units from training pipelines in Russia, and are pulling equipment from storage and can do this through 2024. /11
As @konrad_muzyka sees, Russia has been steadily increasing units in Donetsk, probably some of this was in support of Avdiivka operations. Russia is looking at a 2:1 manpower advantage in the area which could be concentrated against individual objectives
Avdiivka became the emphasis for the Russians in October, and now I suspect it will shift shifting to two areas. One, Robotyne in the south, with a possibility of trying to push west to the edge of Donetsk oblast. /13
In the south, Robotyne and other areas have been under attack for months; and attacks are accelerating in but in recent days. Russia’s goal there is likely to reverse UAF counteroffensive gains and deal a psychological blow to the UAF and to the West. /14
To the north, Russian forces are trying to get to Chasiv Yar to the west of Bakhmut, and move to the NE of Avdiivka. If they gain control of these roads, Pokrovsk is at risk from two routes. /15
Pokrovsk is a vital intersection that allows the UAF to reinforce and resupply multiple units in the area. Pokrovsk has two lines of defenses. /16
The most heavily defended Ukrainian positions in this area are the Kramatorsk-Sloviansk defenses. If Russia tries to advance to the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk, they would need to attack these heavily defended locations. /17
Kramatorsk and Sloviansk are strongholds. Like Avdiivka, these towns are defended and have been built up over the past ten years. Russia will pay costs to attack these towns- as long as the UAF receive additional ammunition and manpower to defend /18
Final thoughts. Ukrainian units are being starved of ammunition from delays in western (mostly American) military aid. Some are also experiencing manning problems as a result of policy delays in mobilization in Kyiv. (there are many reasons for that). /19
Russian forces are keeping pressure along the frontline the past several months to exhaust UAF and their supplies. Ukrainian defensive lines are being constructed, but there are areas that have very little by way of prepared positions in the south. /20
If Russian forces probe weak spots on the frontline, they could advance quickly if they get a breakthrough. They are still vulnerable while maneuvering. /21
Russia has advantages in manpower and ammunition that they can use--and are willing to expend-- for brute force methods to secure advances. Russia still pays a high cost with losses , despite its advantages, which is also important to remember as they try to advance. /22
Russia has many incentives to keep the pressure on the UAF on its current path—attacking Ukrainian positions while they are rationed or depleted. Russia is constrained somewhat by keeping overall casualties to a level that can be sustained by ‘volunteer’ monthly intake/23
This is a precarious time for Ukraine --without aid this situation will degrade. They are asking for support, and when given,there is a way forward. /end

 

[The Z Machine]

I read something that skilled machinists and other trades that are in high demand now make more money than lawyers and white collar workers in Russia.

huge demand even for US. navy is having a horrible time getting ship production due to lack of skilled tradesman.

Call me when the pay exceeds my salary as an engineer. I can run CNC machines, inspect parts, read prints, etc.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://www.wsj.com/world/ukraines-military-spy-chief-says-russia-will-struggle-to-keep-up-the-fight-c6a5b2c5

Ukraine’s leadership, Western military planners and analysts have raised concerns about a lack of equipment and manpower after a failed counteroffensive last year. For its part, Russia has proved able to find recruits for its military. Budanov said the Russian military had 510,000 military personnel in and around Ukraine and has been able to recruit about 30,000 a month. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in December that Ukraine has some 600,000 serving troops of various kinds, although military commanders say that not enough of those are combat-ready.

https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-sends-russia-hundreds-ballistic-missiles-sources-say-2024-02-21/

Iran has provided Russia with a large number of powerful surface-to-surface ballistic missiles, six sources told Reuters, deepening the military cooperation between the two U.S.-sanctioned countries.
Iran's provision of around 400 missiles includes many from the Fateh-110 family of short-range ballistic weapons, such as the Zolfaghar, three Iranian sources said. This road-mobile missile is capable of striking targets at a distance of between 300 and 700 km (186 and 435 miles), experts say.

The shipments began in early January after a deal was finalised in meetings late last year between Iranian and Russian military and security officials that took place in Tehran and Moscow, one of the Iranian sources said.
An Iranian military official - who, like the other sources, asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the information - said there had been at least four shipments of missiles and there would be more in the coming weeks. He declined to provide further details.
Another senior Iranian official said some of the missiles were sent to Russia by ship via the Caspian Sea, while others were transported by plane.
"There will be more shipments," the second Iranian official said. "There is no reason to hide it. We are allowed to export weapons to any country that we wish to."

A Ukrainian military source told Reuters that Kyiv had not registered any use of Iranian ballistic missiles by Russian forces. The Ukrainian defence ministry did not immediately reply to Reuters' request for comment.

Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a Philadelphia-based think tank, said a supply of Fateh-100 and Zolfaghar missiles from Iran would hand Russia an even greater advantage on the battlefield.
"They could be used to strike military targets at operational depths, and ballistic missiles are more difficult for Ukrainian air defences to intercept," Lee said.

This says two entire companies were killed: https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1760229177775591736

Russian commanders decided to gather troops to welcome a visiting general. A Ukrainian drone spotted them. Ukrainian troops fired two HIMARS missiles. According to this footage (warning), two entire Russian companies were killed, near the town of Volnovakha.

https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1760263373189472418

Well-known Russian military blogger Alexey 'Murz' Morozov kills himself after writing about 16,000 Russian KIAs in the battle of Avdiivka and getting harassed for it by official Kremlin propagandists

 

[Don't Toews Me]

I saw a report on the BBC that the pilot who defected and flew the helo to Ukraine was found shot to death in Spain.

Saw that one as well. I think the Ukrainians told him to stay in Ukraine if I'm not mistaken.

Spanish police investigate Russian spy and mafia links to defector’s death

The authorities believe Maxim Kuzminov, who fled the Russian military with an Mi-8 helicopter, could have been killed at the behest of Moscow

www.thetimes.co.uk

Police are investigating the murder as claims of Russian espionage activities in Spain come under increasing scrutiny. Detectives are examining whether Russian mafia based in Spain are linked to the murder, possibly as intermediaries or acting at the behest of Moscow, ABC newspaper reported.

Russia’s spies are ‘back with vengeance’ — and on the prowl across Europe

The Kremlin’s intelligence services were riven by infighting on the eve of the Ukraine war but they have regrouped and, as the killing of Maxim Kuzminov shows, are ‘back with vengeance’ on the streets of Europe

www.thetimes.co.uk

According to Andrei Soldatov, an expert on Russian espionage, the gangland-style shooting in western Europe was intended to demonstrate the Kremlin’s ability to kill with impunity all over the world.
“The Russian intelligence agencies have regrouped with a new sense of purpose following the invasion of Ukraine,” he said. “They are back with vengeance”.

A special report by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) this week details how the GRU has been transformed under Andrei Averyanov, the organisation’s deputy head, who successfully responded to the mass expulsion of Russian agents from Europe following the invasion of Ukraine by hiring “cleanskins” — agents with no military background who are harder to track online by organisations such as Bellingcat. Averyanov has overseen the disciplining of Russian spies, severely curtailing their use of mobile phones to minimise leaks.
Meanwhile the GRU has successfully inherited the business model of the Wagner Group in Africa, offering military protection in exchange for gold and lithium, following the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Even the rivalries between the Russian agencies appear to have been ironed out. “The last time we saw this level of co-operation was under Stalin,” Soldatov said.
Throughout Europe, Russian spies now seem to roam with ease, a fact that has forced Christo Grozev, the Bellingcat journalist, to flee Austria because of safety concerns.

Meanwhile, the turmoil of the war in Ukraine has provided ample opportunity for Russian spies to expand their networks, according to Soldatov, who argues that the exodus of young professionals fleeing Moscow and St Petersburg has created fertile ground for recruiting. “I think we can expect more scandals involving Russian agents infiltrating the West,” he said.

Ukraine rejects claim that it lost Dnipro village to Russia – DW – 02/21/2024

p.dw.com

Ukraine has rebuked a claim by Russia that it lost control of the village of Krynky, which lies on the eastern side of the Dnipro River in the southern Kherson region.

"We officially inform that this information is not true," the command of the Ukrainian military on the southern front wrote on Telegram. "The defense forces of Ukraine continue to hold their positions (in Krynky)."

Ukraine says the Russian military has attacked Krynky, but the Russians took "significant losses" and were forced to withdraw.

Russia gaining control of Krnyky would be a major boost for Moscow's territorial aspirations in Kherson, as it already controls much of the region.

Ukraine war has cost Germany over €200 billion — report – DW – 02/21/2024

p.dw.com

The war in Ukraine has cost Germany more than €200 billion ($216.3 billion), according to an economic analysis.

"The economic costs for Germany after two years of war in Ukraine are likely to be significantly higher than €200 billion," the president of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), Marcel Fratzcher, told the Rheinische Post regional daily on Wednesday.

"Above all, high energy costs have reduced growth in Germany by 2.5%, or €100 billion, in 2022 and by a similar amount in 2023," he said.

Fratzcher said that "escalating geopolitical and geoeconomic conflicts, especially with China" have brought about further costs to Germany.

The head of DIW said that the costs of the war in Ukraine were hitting people with lower incomes especially hard, as they are experiencing "two to three times higher inflation than people with higher incomes."

 

[themeistersinger]

Fear Is Part of Life in Russia. But Navalny Said We Mustn’t Be Afraid - The Moscow Times

Opinion | The first emotion I felt when I found out that Navalny was killed was fear.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Russia Arrests U.S.-Russian Woman Accused of Treason - The Moscow Times

Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) has arrested a U.S.-Russian woman suspected of collecting money for the Ukrainian military, the law enforcement agency's press service announced Tuesday. Video shared by state-run news agencies showed FSB agents escorting a handcuffed and blindfolded...

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[Dezbelief]

Russia Arrests U.S.-Russian Woman Accused of Treason - The Moscow Times

Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) has arrested a U.S.-Russian woman suspected of collecting money for the Ukrainian military, the law enforcement agency's press service announced Tuesday. Video shared by state-run news agencies showed FSB agents escorting a handcuffed and blindfolded...

www.themoscowtimes.com

I read an article on this, she faces life in prison for donating $51 to a pro Ukrainian group.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Video: Can Ukraine still win? Why the outcome of the war depends on ammunition

Most Europeans think Ukraine will lose the war, according to survey

A majority of respondents in Hungary, Greece and Italy want allies to push Kyiv to accept a settlement.

www.politico.eu

Most Europeans support Ukraine in its war against Russia but only 1 in 10 think Ukraine can win, according to a survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), with most seeing a “compromise settlement” as necessary to end the conflict.

The responses come from 17,023 respondents to an online survey across 12 European Union countries in January.

A third of respondents — with voters asked in Austria, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain and Sweden — want the EU to limit its support.

While the survey paints a bleak picture, a majority of those asked are still in favor of continuing to support Ukraine.

On average, just 19.5 percent of those surveyed believe Russia will win. However, in Hungary (64 percent), Greece (59 percent) and Italy (52 percent), majorities want allies to push Kyiv to accept a settlement deal — something Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has refused to consider.

Ukraine Needs More Fighters

But further mobilization is unpopular—and politically sensitive.

foreignpolicy.com

“Soldiers are tired, physically and mentally,” said Myroslav Borysenko, a former history professor at the prestigious Kyiv-Mohyla Academy who now serves as an artillery officer in a Marine brigade in southern Ukraine. Speaking to Foreign Policy in Kyiv during a rare, short break from his service, the 49-year-old Borysenko—who volunteered to join the military on the first day of Russia’s invasion in February 2022—said soldiers need to see a path out of the trenches. Currently, he said, they serve with no clear end in sight. Breaks like the one Borysenko enjoyed are a rare luxury that some soldiers have not experienced for more than a year.

The competing imperatives of conscripting more troops while also providing rest to worn-out soldiers are tightly linked. “The lack of a demobilization process makes mobilization even harder,” said Borys Khmilevskiy, a former combat medic who recently joined a team in Ukraine’s Defense Ministry brainstorming ways to upgrade the mobilization process. “For people who have not yet joined the military, the contract with the state currently sounds like, ‘You’re being recruited until you die or get injured really badly,’ and of course it’s not a good contract, so people don’t want to join.”

Last fall, following Ukraine’s unsuccessful summer counteroffensive, the question of if and how to demobilize troops moved to the political forefront.
Beginning in October 2023, small groups of soldiers’ wives and mothers took to the streets of several Ukrainian cities to demand the right for soldiers to demobilize after 18 months of service without the possibility of being enlisted again for another year and a half. The protests have been ongoing, with the latest ones unfolding in more than a dozen Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, on Feb. 11.
“We know it’s not up to us to decide that length, but there needs to be a term of service,” said Anastasia Chuvakina, a 22-year-old dance teacher from Odesa. She told Foreign Policy that her husband has able to visit home only three times, for just a handful of days each, since the start of the Russian invasion.
The absence of any clear demobilization procedure so far has also strained military-civilian relations, with resentment growing among some front-line troops who feel that some men in the rear are actively avoiding conscription.
“I was walking in the streets [in Kyiv], I saw all these fit men in civilian clothes, and I thought, that guy would be great for the airborne troops, that one would be perfect for the Marines,” said Borysenko, the artillery officer. “We’re tired, and we feel like society isn’t ready to properly prepare for this war, doesn’t see that we need to be rotated out.”
Meanwhile, Borysenko said fighting has grown more grueling as front-line troops have had to adapt to an ammunition shortage and technological change. “One year ago, nighttime could be a time for sleeping on the front line, but these past few months, the enemy received drones with thermal and night vision. And it’s changed everything,” he added.
But demobilization is a tough sell for the government when “the shortage [of manpower] is palpable,” Ukrainian military spy chief Kyrylo Budanov told the Financial Times in January. The tens of thousands of soldiers who would leave the army if an official demobilization period were to be declared would need to be replaced by fresh troops—just as Kyiv struggles to find willing people for the job. “I think the bill introducing demobilization will pass,” said Fesenko, the political analyst, “but I don’t think it will be applied in practice, not for now at least.”

Good piece here on AI and drones in this war: The revolution that wasn’t: How AI drones have fizzled in Ukraine (so far)

https://twitter.com/PopovaProf/status/1760282063511716262

In the occupied territories, Ru suppresses Ukr national identity— bans Ukr in schools, burns Ukr books, loots museums, kills priests, kidnaps/Russifies children, and tortures anyone who opposes Russification. How do some imagine that all Ru wants to impose on Ukr is neutrality?

https://twitter.com/jakluge/status/1760358885339086853

Where do Russian soldiers come from? Here is a great paper by @LSolanko that tracks increases in household bank deposits (that cannot be explained by regular economic activity) as a proxy for mobilization across Russian regions. https://publications.bof.fi/handle/10024/53281

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine suffered losses during chaotic withdrawal as Russia seized Avdiivka

Members of the military who participated in the operation said they were unsure how many others had also been left behind — but any number of casualties is sure to further deteriorate morale on the front line as Ukrainian troops, already outgunned and outnumbered, struggle to replenish their ranks and await further assistance from the West.

Other members of Ukraine’s military who were familiar with the final weeks of fighting in Avdiivka and Ukraine’s rapid withdrawal from the city said the situation was chaotic and poorly planned. The accounts suggest that the retreat, ordered by Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, who was named as Ukraine’s top commander by President Volodymyr Zelensky earlier this month, was a grim and dangerous operation — and hardly the orderly pullback to “more advantageous positions” that Ukrainian military officials claimed at the time.
One soldier, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the situation, said that some troops were ordered to “take positions that were already either lost or destroyed.”
Constant Russian attacks made the task impossible, with Russian forces outnumbering Ukrainians 7 to 1. Russia constantly bombarded the area, launching as many as 60 guided aviation bombs per day, which Ukraine could not repel because of lack of antiaircraft defenses.
The soldier said that troops in the 110th Brigade were exhausted after serving without rotations for two years, and their fatigue led them to abandon their positions “without prior coordination.”
“The situation was not saved systematically, but by randomly throwing in units,” the soldier said. “They did not unlock the pincers that formed around Avdiivka in time … and it gave the enemy an opportunity to form a bridgehead.”

Serhiy, 41, a platoon commander in the 53rd Brigade who spoke on the condition his last name not be used in keeping with military rules, said that he left Avdiivka four days ago. He said all troops from his battalion managed to escape the city but he understands that others “did get stuck.”
If the retreat from the city was even planned at all, the platoon commander said, “it was planned very badly.”
By the time reserve troops arrived, the last evacuation road out of the city was nearly cut off, Serhiy said. Over the weekend, he helped evacuate pilots from the area at 5 or 6 a.m. and by 8 a.m. the road they used was already controlled by Russians. His troops planned to return, but amid heavy rain and rapid Russian advances they were later instructed not to reenter the city, even off-road.
Due to severe exhaustion, the commander said he could not remember if they left on Saturday or Sunday. His platoon has already redeployed to areas around the city and is now fighting in “a very difficult situation,” he said.
The hasty retreat and the loss of Avdiivka “broke the boys a little bit psychologically,” Serhiy said. “A lot of guided aerial bombs, a lot of aviation. Honestly speaking, most people are in shock by all of this.”

Ukrainian soldiers recall retreat from Avdiivka – on foot, leaving their wounded behind

Editor’s Note: The Kyiv Independent does not disclose the soldiers’ full names since they were not authorized to speak with the press. DONETSK OBLAST – As Russian forces closed in on a Ukrainian pocket southeast of Avdiivka, infantryman Oleh heard the order clearly: “There will be no...

kyivindependent.com

As Russian forces closed in on a Ukrainian pocket southeast of Avdiivka, infantryman Oleh heard the order clearly: “There will be no evacuation. Leave 300 (the wounded).”

Oleh was among the last to flee the nearly encircled Zenit, a key position that has held off the Russian advance toward Avdiivka from the south since 2014.

In a bunker at the Zenit, a former air defense base, Oleh and his older comrade, Vasyl, said their goodbyes to the wounded. Of the six lying on the floor, Oleh was particularly close with Ivan, who he described as a young, sincere man who was hoping to see his family soon.

The clock was ticking. It was 6 a.m., Feb. 15, and Russians were drawing closer. After what felt like a half-an-hour conversation, Oleh and Vasyl left the bunker in a small group.

It was impossible to carry the wounded through a 2.5-kilometer journey to Avdiivka, a small industrial city on the verge of falling. Oleh’s own survival was also uncertain, as the Russians only left a 120-meter gap in their encirclement that Ukrainian soldiers could use to flee.

Brushing away emotions and focusing on survival, Oleh, a young man from Kharkiv Oblast, began to make his way toward the city, nearly surrounded by Russian forces.

“We were just left there (by our leadership),” Oleh told the Kyiv Independent a few days later, in a Donetsk Oblast town further from the front line. “We defended (the Zenit strongpoint) until the end.”

The withdrawal from Avdiivka was late and disorganized, forcing many soldiers to make their escape by foot, under heavy shelling, four servicemen with Ukraine’s 110th Separate Mechanized Brigade, a large unit that manned the defense of Avdiivka and its outskirts, told the Kyiv Independent.

While agreeing that the Avdiivka defense was effective in grinding down Russia’s offensive capability that could be used elsewhere, Western military experts also criticized Ukraine for carrying out the retreat too late. Military analysts pointed out that Ukraine has made similar costly mistakes in Bakhmut, Soledar, and Sievierodonetsk.

The two months of 2024 were extremely difficult for the soldiers defending Zenit, Oleh said.

Russian forces drew closer to the key supply route into Avdiivka by encircling the city from three sides, ramping up their attacks on the passing vehicles to reinforce troops inside.

Oleh said that by January, the remaining troops began rationing their bullets for rifles and machine guns, as well as food and water intake.

“A 1.5-liter bottle of drinking water was (what we had) for three people, for four days at least,” Oleh said, recalling the dire survival conditions.

The positions across Zenit have suffered heavily due to Russia’s constant use of guided air bombs, cluster munitions, and other weapons.

At around 9 p.m. on Feb. 13, the remaining soldiers at Zenit received the order to flee toward Avdiivka “on their own,” according to Oleh.

Some of them began to flee in small groups, while the rest, including Oleh, stayed to hold the defense. While fighting off the Russian assaults to allow the other guys to escape, Oleh heard his friends getting wounded or killed on their way to Avdiivka one after another on the radio.

“We covered for ours, held the defense, while ours were trying to retreat, but they were bombarded with artillery – it was unbelievable,” Oleh said.

His brothers-in-arms evacuated six guys who were wounded not far from Zenit to a bunker, Oleh said. Oleh had hoped that by risking his life to keep covering for the rest of the guys, there was still some hope for an evacuation to arrive for the wounded in the bunker.

Those hopes were quickly shattered by the reality of the war.
Early on Feb. 15, Oleh heard his commander telling his comrades at the bunker that no vehicles or equipment could get there.

“They (the six wounded) waited until the 15th, thinking they would be taken away (by evacuation),” Oleh said. “On the 15th, they were told there would be no evacuation.”

Just as he stepped away from the bunker at Zenit, Oleh said he saw the first body of a comrade killed while fleeing. And then more and more.

Unable to help the wounded or collect the bodies of the killed, Oleh walked through the area heavily struck by Russian artillery, tanks, rockets, air bombs, and drones.

“We did not collect (the bodies) because we want to live too,” Oleh said. He said he was unable to count the bodies he saw on the path to Avdiivka.
In the case of shelling, Oleh dived into holes left behind after previous Russian shelling.

Carefully walking toward Avdiivka, Oleh said that his command stopped answering him at this point, and that they were completely “on their own.”

Five hours later, Oleh and his surviving comrades finally got to Avdiivka – from where they also had to flee near encirclement on foot toward the villages of Sievierne and Tonenke to the west.

The 110th’s spokesman, Kotsukon, said that the soldiers fleeing Zenit were assisted by drones from above to get to Avdiivka and then to an evacuation point, as long as they had a connection. He stressed that “everything possible and impossible” was done to evacuate the soldiers from Zenit.

Oleh and Vasyl said that no more than 40% of their company made it out alive, though declining to disclose the number of original troops before the encirclement. At the current stage in the war in Ukraine, infantry companies typically consist of 60-80 people.

Remembering his final conversation with the six soldiers left behind at Zenit, Oleh said they wanted him to make it out alive to tell the story of what happened to them.

Reflecting on how they were abandoned, Oleh and Vasyl said they felt as though their lives didn’t matter to their leadership.

“We were told (on the radio), ‘get there (to an evacuation point) on your own’,” Oleh said. “There is no evacuation (in Avdiivka). There, you are on your own – you either die or you make it out.”

 

[The Z Machine]

Not a lot of great news these days in Ukraine.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine outnumbered, outgunned, ground down by relentless Russia

As the Ukraine war enters its third year, the infantry of 59th Brigade are confronting a bleak reality: they're running out of soldiers and ammunition to resist their Russian invaders.
One platoon commander who goes by his call sign "Tygr" estimated that just 60-70% of the several thousand men in the brigade at the start of the conflict were still serving. The rest had been killed, wounded or signed off for reasons such as old age or illness.
Heavy casualties at the hands of Russian forces have been compounded by dreadful conditions on the eastern front, with frozen soil turning into thick mud in unseasonably warm temperatures, playing havoc with soldier's health.
"The weather is rain, snow, rain, snow. People get ill with simple flu or angina as a result. They're out of action for some time, and there is nobody to replace them," said a company commander in the brigade with the call sign "Limuzyn". "The most immediate problem in every unit is lack of people."

Another commander in the 59th Brigade, who only gave his first name Hryhoriy, described relentless attacks from groups of five to seven Russian soldiers who would push forward up to 10 times a day in what he called "meat assaults" - highly costly to the Russians but also a major threat to his troops.
"When one or two defensive positions are fighting off these assaults all day, the guys get tired," Hryhoriy said as he and his exhausted men were afforded a brief rotation away from the frontlines near the Russian-occupied eastern city of Donetsk.
"Weapons break, and if there is no possibility of bringing them more ammunition or changing their weapons, then you understand what this leads to."

A soldier serving in a GRAD rocket artillery unit, whose call sign is "Skorpion", said that his launcher, which uses Soviet-designed ammunition held by few of Ukraine's allies, was now operating at about 30% of maximum capacity.
"It became like this recently," he said. "There aren't as many foreign munitions."
Michael Kofman, a senior fellow and Russian military specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington-based think-tank, estimated that Russia's artillery was firing at five times the rate of Ukraine's, a figure that Hryhoriy of the 59th Brigade also gave.
"Ukraine is not getting a sufficient amount of artillery ammunition to meet its minimum defensive needs, and this is not a sustainable situation moving forward," Kofman added.

Limuzyn, the company commander in the 59th Brigade, said Russia's widespread use of drones had make it difficult for Ukrainian troops to establish or strengthen fortified positions.
"Our guys start to do something, a drone sees them, and a second drone arrives to drop something onto them."
Drones have also forced the Russians to move valuable vehicles and weapons systems back by several kilometres, according to two Ukrainian drone pilots in different units.
"It's now very hard to find vehicles to hit... most vehicles are 9-10 km away or more," said a pilot in the 24th Brigade with the call sign "Nato". "At the beginning they were very comfortable being 7 km away."
Two other Ukrainian drone pilots, "Leleka" and "Darwin", both serving in the elite Achilles drone unit of the 92nd Brigade, described queues of two or three UAVs sometimes forming above the battlefield, waiting to hit enemy targets.
Leleka recalled watching four drones from different Ukrainian units coming in to strike a target on one occasion: "It's like taxis at the airport, one drone comes, then another, then a third."
The same situation is true for the Russians, whose drones now comfortably outnumber Ukraine's, according to Ukrainian pilots from three units. The Russian defence ministry said this month that the country had ramped up its production of military drones in the past year, without giving figures.

Russia 'struggling with supply of weapons and ammunition' for Ukraine war - Western officials

Reports of Russian shortages come as concerns over the provision of Western weapons to Ukraine mount.

www.bbc.com

Russia is struggling to provide ammunition and weapons for its war in Ukraine, according to Western officials.
It is facing "extreme challenges" in obtaining sufficient equipment and materiel, an official said.
It comes as concerns over the provision of Western weapons to Ukraine are mounting.
As the war enters its third year, the supply of ammunition, arms and manpower looks set to be a critical factor.
"Russia's domestic ammunition production capabilities are currently insufficient for meeting the needs of the Ukraine conflict," a Western official claimed, saying Moscow has been able to increase its supply only by seeking out alternative sources of ammunition and weapons, which does not offer a long-term solution.
They pointed to the impact of sanctions as one cause.
"Sanctions are hitting the Russian military industrial complex hard, causing severe delays and increasing costs. An inability to access Western components is severely undermining Russia's production of new systems and repairs of old systems, with long-term consequences for the quality of weapons produced," they said.
Russia has made advances recently, such as taking the town of Avdiivka, and appears to have the upper hand on the battlefield.
But officials believe Moscow's ability to deliver these successes has come at a high cost in terms of casualties. Russia is firing artillery shells at a far higher rate than Ukraine - five times more by some estimates - but fewer than it was in 2022 and is believed to still not be producing enough to replenish what it is using.

The official said Russia has been having to turn to foreign sources for arms. These include drones and missiles from Iran and ammunition stocks from North Korea. Some of this is also believed to be poor quality as well as having taken extensive negotiations, including a visit from Russia's Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu to North Korea, to secure.
The official also said Russia is requisitioning equipment due to be delivered by its defence industry to other countries. This includes India, which has long been reliant on Russian weaponry for its armed forces, and whose air force a year ago said it was not receiving what it expected.
The claims about Russian weapons supply come ahead of the second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on 24 February. The assessment from Western officials is that Russia has not given up on its original goals of "subjugating" Ukraine.
But they said Russia does not have a clear plan to bring that about other than hoping that in the long term its superior manpower and resources will make the difference by grinding its neighbour down.
Russia is currently producing more ammunition than Ukraine is receiving. However, Russia may be close to its limits of supply while there remains the possibility that Ukraine could still get more from its allies.

A retired Estonian general said the sanctions are not working. In one instance, Russia was able to source $3 billion worth of Western components last year and $1 billion of advanced chips from US and Europe. With that said, if you read RUSI's most recent piece and specifically their section on Russian Industrial Capacity, you can see this official's point. Meanwhile, others say Russian production numbers are a lot higher than expected.

To one of the official's points above, there was a time when Russia was firing 20,000 artillery rounds a day in Ukraine (and Ukraine estimated it was as high as 60,000 even at times) and most estimates right now seem to assess that number at anywhere from 6,000 to 10,000 depending on the source you read.

Video of GLSDB: https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1760325682184208511

Krynky, Ukrainian forces conduct a precision strike on a house used by Russian forces, reportedly with a HIMARS-launched GBU-39/B GLSDB.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

On the Iran missile transfer: https://twitter.com/John_A_Ridge/status/1760387686206951595

To put the scale of this transfer into perspective, this is more than 12 months of Russian Iskander-M production at their current capacity of 30 missiles per month

Possibly another HIMARs strike: https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1760402840982278396

Russian channels say that there was another Ukrainian strike targeting Russian military personnel gathered at a training ground, this time in Russia-occupied part of Kherson Oblast of Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/EMPosts/status/1760390829980447127

SCOOP: Ukraine is near an agreement with the IMF to get the next $900 million disbursement from its $15.6 billion loan, a boost to the nation’s budget and a vote of confidence as US aid remains elusive.

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1760435644424187987

The U.S. Army is building three 155mm projectile metal parts lines in Texas: Pentagon statement.

All three lines are planned to be in operation and producing 30,000 projectile shell bodies per month – but it depends on funding from national security supplemental.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Bundestag votes against sending Taurus to Ukraine – DW – 02/22/2024

p.dw.com

A majority of German lawmakers voted against an opposition motion to deliver Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine.

The motion was put forward by the center-right Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) bloc.

Only 182 parliamentarians voted in favor of it, while 480 were against. There were 5 abstentions.

In the run up to the vote, opposition leader Friedrich Merz had urged members of the ruling coalition to support the motion.

The ruling alliance, for their part, are putting forward their own joint motion calling for the delivery of "additional, necessary long-range weapons systems and ammunition" to Ukraine, without explicitly mentioning Taurus.

Bundestag votes for delivering 'long-range weapons' to Ukraine – DW – 02/22/2024

p.dw.com

The German parliament has voted in favor of a motion put forward by the country's ruling coalition, which called for providing "additional, necessary long-range weapons systems and ammunition" to Ukraine.

The measure, however, did not explicitly mention the delivery of the Taurus cruise missile system to Kyiv.

While 382 lawmakers voted for the motion, 284 rejected it and 2 abstained.

There are differences in views among the parties of the ruling coalition as to whether the wording also allows for the delivery of Taurus missiles.

While politicians from the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and environmentalist Greens say that it does, the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) rejects this interpretation.

The vote was held after parliamentarians earlier in the day rejected another, competing motion presented by the opposition center-right Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) bloc, in which they explicitly urged for the supply of the Taurus cruise missile system to Kyiv.

Highlighting divisions within Chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition, the FDP head of the Bundestag Defense Committee Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann voted for the opposition motion.

Yikes: https://twitter.com/PedderSophie/status/1760590749844844996

The French defence minister @SebLecornu says that last month "Russian operators threatened to shoot down manned French aircraft on patrol over the Black Sea, in international airspace"

Moscow hired gunmen to murder Russian defector, Spanish intel says

Maksim Kuzminov was shot dead near Alicante in Spain.

www.politico.eu

Spanish intelligence services accused the Kremlin of orchestrating the murder of Maksim Kuzminov, the Russian helicopter pilot who defected to Ukraine last year.

Kuzminov, who was reportedly living in Spain under a false identity, was found dead in the Spanish town of Villajoyosa, near Alicante, on Feb. 13. Police said attackers shot the former pilot six times before running him over with a car, Spanish media reported.

Sources in Spanish intelligence services told Spanish outlet El País that it will be hard to directly link the murder to one of Russia’s agencies, but they believe Moscow hired hitmen from outside Spain to carry out the assassination.
According to the outlet’s sources, Spanish intelligence services did not know that Kuzminov was in Spain, as they were not informed of his arrival. Earlier this week, government spokesperson Pilar Alegría did not answer questions on whether Kuzminov was under Spanish police protection, saying the case was “under investigation.”

Russia used at least 20 North Korean ballistic missiles in attacks on Ukraine, Kyiv says

Recent report by Conflict Armament Research confirms Moscow has used weapons made by North Korea.

www.politico.eu

Russia has used at least 20 North Korean ballistic missiles in attacks on Ukraine since late December, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said Thursday.

The Russia-fired Hwasong-11 missiles — also known as KN-23 and KN-24 — have killed at least 24 civilians and injured at least 100 in Ukraine, investigators claim.

The SBU presented debris of what looked like a KN-23 ballistic missile, according to a statement Thursday.

https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1760570043723628729

Ukraine’s Deep State monitoring service confirms Russian claims about the fall of Pobeda - an important Ukrainian stronghold near Mariinka, on the way to Vuhledar.

Meanwhile, Russia’s Rybar collective refutes Shoygu’s claim about Krynki being controlled by the Russians.

Look at these charts: https://twitter.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1760640418272649454

Every single EU country saw its exports to Central Asia boom right after Russia invaded Ukraine. This goes on from every single EU country to every single country in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Once you add all that up, it's NOT small. It's big. And the EU does nothing...

Client Challenge

In failing to take a tougher stance on sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine, the EU might have stored up a series of problems that investors need to pay more attention to.
Two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion, it is now painfully clear that EU sanctions have failed to meaningfully curtail Moscow’s ability to wage war on its neighbour. What went wrong?
The first and most obvious issue is excessive reliance on financial sanctions — that is, blocking some Russian banks from intermediating payments with the west. Central bank official foreign exchange reserves were also frozen, but that measure targets a stock of assets, not ongoing flows, which are what matter for economic activity.
Financial sanctions can be highly effective when imposed on countries that run a current account deficit, because such countries must continually borrow from global markets to pay for imports. No more foreign credit causes the economy to collapse. However, before, during and after the invasion, the value of Russia’s exports has far exceeded what it pays for imports. As a current account surplus country, Russia effectively lends to the rest of the world: it accumulates foreign assets. (Russia’s current account surplus is forecast to be 4 per cent of GDP this year by the IMF.)
By sanctioning some Russian financial institutions, the west merely caused the accumulation of foreign assets to shift from sanctioned to non-sanctioned banks. Effectively, Gazprombank replaced Russia’s sanctioned central bank as the main financial intermediary with the outside world. This shift did not in any way curtail payments to Russia for its exports, so there was no impact on its ability to pay for imports. (Russia’s imports in 2023 were 20 per cent above pre-Covid pandemic levels.)
Why didn’t the G7 and EU sanction all Russian banks? That would be equivalent to a trade embargo (prohibition of exports), since countries would no longer be able to pay Russia for its fossil fuel exports (oil, gas and coal), bringing those exports to a halt. Russia exports about 8mn barrels of oil, on average, per day. How to squeeze Putin’s revenue without driving up the price of oil sharply?
In December 2022, the G7 and EU found an ingenious way forward, imposing a cap on the price that Russia can receive for its crude oil exports when these are transported in western-owned ships or use western services. In early 2023, a roughly equivalent cap was extended to cover refined products. Unfortunately, implementation of this oil price cap was at every turn undercut by a small number of western operators, especially Greek shipping magnates, that sold their oil tankers to “undisclosed” buyers — allowing Russia to export oil outside the cap.
To be fair, the Greeks are not alone. The massive rise in western exports to central Asia and the Caucasus is another example of western business at work. For example, German exports of cars and parts to Kyrgyzstan have risen 5,000 per cent since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. There is no way these exports are staying in Kyrgyzstan. They are going to Russia, where they help keep the war economy going, and the same thing is happening via Belarus, Kazakhstan and other places.

This is the one from yesterday: https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1760618616540553510

Ukraine’s Armed Forces hit a concentration of Russian troops in the Russian-occupied part of Ukraine’s Kherson region using HIMARS rocket launchers. According to the Ukrainian military, there were over 60 casualties.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russia's forces turn their focus on Ukraine's northeast in what may be an ambitious new push

An official says Russian forces are probing Ukrainian defenses for weak points in the country’s northeast.

apnews.com

Russian forces are probing Ukrainian defenses for weak points in the country’s northeast, an official said Thursday, an area where analysts believe the Kremlin seeks to build on its recent success in taking a key city by mounting an ambitious four-pronged offensive to break through the front line.

Moscow’s troops are driving forward around Lyman and Kupiansk, in the Kharkiv region that borders Russia, ignoring casualties or equipment losses, according to Illia Yevlash, spokesperson for the operational group overseeing the eastern front line.

“Despite the enormous losses, which the enemy does not take into consideration, it is constantly replenishing its reserves,” Yevlash said on Ukrainian television.

The Russians are attacking in strength along four parallel axes in the northeast, “likely reflective of a wider operational objective and higher-level operational planning,” the Institute for the Study of War said.

Russia’s longer-term goal with the coordinated — and probably monthslong — offensive could be to prepare a platform for pressing deeper intro the Ukraine-held western part of the Donetsk region and also penetrating into the Kharkiv region north of it, the Washington-based think tank said late Wednesday.

Denmark says Ukraine should get first F-16s ‘this summer’

Ukraine desperately needs the jets to hold off Russian attacks.

www.politico.eu

The first F-16 fighter jets should be delivered to Ukraine's air force by this summer, Denmark's Defense Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said today.

Poulsen said Denmark would deliver the first F-16s within a few months "if the preparations proceed as planned" for pilot training and infrastructure development.

Saab waits out political drama over sending Gripen fighters to Ukraine

Sweden's NATO membership, held up by Hungary, is one of the obstacles still on the table.

www.defensenews.com

“We are fully aligned with what has been put forward by the Swedish government on this matter – we also continue to work to support and work with our Hungarian partners in the best way we can,” Mikael Franzén, chief marketing officer at Saab told Defense News.

“We expect that if such a decision was granted approval by the Swedish government, it would be a fairly rapid process to send the aircraft to Ukraine. We are moving in the right direction currently,” he added.

“There remains a big push coming from inside and outside of Sweden for us to send the Gripen to Ukraine, and we stand ready to provide these should a decision be reached by the government on this,” Franzén said.

Saab officials confirmed to Defense News that Ukrainian pilots successfully tested the Gripen jets in Sweden last fall, which observers hailed as a sign that negotiations for their transfer were advancing.

According to Jussi Halmetoja, former Gripen pilot and air operations advisor for Saab, teaching a pilot how to fly the aircraft is easy, but it is only one part of the equation, as they must also learn how to effectively use the combat systems.

“On average it takes between 4-6 months to train a pilot to use the Gripen JAS39 fighter in the techniques for a limited mission set such as air-to-air and beyond-visual-range,” he told Defense News at the airshow.

“One of the initial challenges that can easily be overcome is language barriers, but teaching them about maintaining the aircraft and using its weapons as well as tactics, techniques and procedures properly are harder ones,” he added.

Denmark inks 10-year security guarantee with Ukraine – DW – 02/22/2024

p.dw.com

Denmark says it has agreed a decade-long security guarantee with Ukraine after Kyiv signed similar deals with Germany, France, and Britain.

Ukraine has been eager to bolster its security with bilateral agreements ahead of someday joining the NATO defense alliance, and Denmark is one of the country's strongest supporters.

"The agreement means that future military and civilian support will be established in a framework for the next 10 years in a bilateral political agreement," the Danish Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

The ministry said the fund would be financed by Denmark's Ukraine Foundation, currently valued at 69.1 billion kroner ($10 billion).

Recent data from the Germany-based Kiel Institute for the World Economy shows that Denmark is the fourth-biggest donor of military aid to Ukraine.

"Denmark is one of the countries supporting Ukraine the most, and I'm proud," Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told reporters.

"The commitments build bridges to Ukraine's future EU and NATO membership," the Danish government said in a statement.

The Danish Defense Ministry has just unveiled its 15th package of military aid to Ukraine, this one worth 1.7 billion kroner.

The country has financed the purchase of 15,000 artillery munitions to be delivered to Ukraine. The package also includes air defense, mine clearance material and drones, with F-16 fighter jets pledged last year set to arrive in the coming months "if everything continues as planned."

 

[beer 30]

Good video to give a bit of an idea of what you have to go through in the trenches of Ukraine.

https://www.reddit.com/r/GarandThumb/comments/1au022f/2_years_on_ukraines_frontline_drones_trenches/?rdt=59933

 

[Don't Toews Me]

US lacks long-term sustainment plan for key Ukraine weapons, Pentagon watchdog says

Getting new Patriot anti-air systems would be “painful,” a Defense Department official said.

www.defenseone.com

The Defense Department transferred Patriot air defense systems and various combat vehicles to Ukraine without a plan to sustain them long-term, which could lead to problems down the road, according to a report by the Pentagon’s watchdog.

While the Defense Department has helped Ukraine with field repairs, it does not have a plan for more complex depot-level maintenance, according to the report published last week.

Additionally, Remote Distribution and Maintenance Center—Ukraine, the Poland-based U.S. maintenance unit supporting Ukraine, has no ability to do Patriot depot-level repair, the report said. The Inspector General recommended that U.S. European Command identify the requirements and facilities that would be necessary to set up depot-level repair.

Being unable to fully maintain the Patriots “increases the risk” that Ukraine may not be able to defend itself from Russia, the report said.

Another problem: It would be very difficult for the U.S. to replace the Patriot systems it gave to Ukraine, the report said. All the Patriot systems given to Ukraine came from U.S. training grounds, and more requests would be “painful” to fulfill, a Defense Department official said in the report.

Patriot systems are in high demand to protect U.S. forces globally. Patriot battery crews have one of the highest deployment rates across the Army.

But there is also no long-term sustainment plan for the 186 Bradleys infantry fighting vehicles, 189 Strykers infantry carrying vehicles, and 31 Abrams tanks the U.S. has transferred to Ukraine, according to a separate Inspector General report.

The U.S. has given Ukraine the spare parts it will need for field-level maintenance until the end of fiscal year 2024, that report said. But weapons systems are “not likely to remain mission capable without sustainment,” the report said.

In both cases, the reason for the lack of a long-term sustainment plan is that the U.S. did not include money for that purpose when it transferred the weapons to Ukraine, and the Defense Department did not provide additional guidance on the issue.

Expert to DW: Taurus 'different' from UK's Storm Shadow, France's SCALP – DW – 02/22/2024

p.dw.com

While Germany has been debating the delivery of Taurus missiles for months, the UK and France have already supplied Ukraine with similar weapon systems — the British Storm Shadow platform, and its almost identical French counterpart SCALP.

Both Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles have a range of over 250 kilometers.

Taurus, however, can hit targets up to 500 kilometers away with great precision.

Thomas Wiegold, a journalist and security expert, told DW that the Taurus and Storm Shadow systems are "pretty similar, but still different."

"Taurus has a much longer range and is much more resistant against GPS jamming and spoofing," he explained, pointing out that this means it increases the chances for Ukraine to reach strategically significant goals like destroying the Kerch bridge, which links Russia to the annexed Crimean peninsula.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been reluctant to supply the weapon system to Kyiv despite pressure from both opposition parties as well as members of his own coalition.

Given Taurus' long range, Wiegold said there are fears that the missiles "might reach Russia proper, and that’s something the chancellor urgently wants to avoid."

Russia to bite off much more of Ukraine, Putin ally Medvedev says

Russian troops will go much further into Ukraine, taking the southern city of Odesa and may even one day push on to the capital Kyiv, a senior ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday.
Putin said on Tuesday Russian troops would push further into Ukraine to build on their success on the battlefield after the weekend fall of the town of Avdiivka where he said Ukrainian troops had been forced to flee in chaos.
"Where should we stop? I don't know," former President Dmitry Medvedev, now deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, said in an interview with Russian media. "We will have to work very hard and very seriously."
"Will it be Kyiv? Yes, it probably should be Kyiv. If not now, then after some time, maybe in some other phase of the development of this conflict."

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russia using freshly-produced shells as supply 'running smoothly,' Ukrainian officer says

Russia is mostly firing shells produced in 2022 and 2023, showing their ammunition supply is "running smoothly," Roman Holodivskyi, a battery commander in Ukraine's 43rd Artillery Brigade, told the Kyiv Independent in an interview published on Feb. 22.

kyivindependent.com

Meanwhile, on the Russian side, recovered fragments and unexploded shells show that they are fresh off the production line, according to Holodivskyi.

"The shells they are mostly shooting with now, they were produced in 2022 or 2023," Holodivskyi told the Kyiv Independent.

"They don't have any hunger, their production lines are running smoothly."

‘Our reserves will run out:’ Ukrainian artillery sounds alarm on Western shell shortage

DONETSK OBLAST – Hiding beneath sparse winter cover in a crude, muddy ditch, a great steel monster lies in wait for an opportunity to attack. Adorned on either side with painted plus signs, the gun’s huge barrel looks up at the sky over the Bakhmut front line, across which thousands

kyivindependent.com

The Kyiv Independent spoke to 155mm artillery commanders in two separate brigades fighting in Donetsk Oblast to understand how shell hunger had begun to impact the day-to-day flow of the battlefield.

Across Ukraine’s vast land forces, with different levels of intensity in different sectors of the front line, it can often be difficult to visualize how shell hunger affects the work of Ukrainian forces on a tactical level.

By now, said 36-year-old Paladin crew commander Vitalii “Skyba,” whose last name is not disclosed as per the rules of the unit, the difference between Ukraine’s and Russia’s ammunition availability is acutely felt.

“It feels like we shoot only when we see a target, while their guns are firing 24/7, they dismantle whole villages just for fun,” he said.

“We can't work like that, we often get only three shells to hit a target and the expectation is that that will be enough, whereas they can easily fire 20 shells at one target.”

Sometimes, Skyba added, targets that would normally be obvious choices to be engaged with artillery are left alone because of the need to be frugal.

“If they spot five enemy soldiers standing together, that's not always enough to give the order to fire these days,” he said.

“Our command does its best to get us to support our infantry. It would be great if we could work non-stop like the Russians, but we can’t.”

Twenty kilometers south of Chasiv Yar, the Kyiv Independent also spoke with Roman Holodivskyi, battery commander in the 43rd Artillery Brigade, which has divisions deployed across the front line and transitioned completely from Soviet-era Pion howitzers to German-made PzH2000 self-propelled guns.

Holodivskyi, whose seniority provides a wider view on the ammunition situation that crew commanders like Skyba may lack, also reported receiving limits on how many shells can be used on a target.

“Last time I commanded a fire mission personally, we saw an enemy assault group, it was the perfect distance to work. I asked for permission to engage from my senior commander, and also asked for the maximum expenditure,” he said.

“They gave me permission to fire five shells. That's three to dial in, and two to actually damage. If we had been allowed 10 shells for that large enemy grouping, it would have been obliterated, but like that, we only managed to give them a bite.”
Even while working as miserly as possible, Ukrainian howitzers’ current rate of fire is unsustainable.

When 155mm shells were more available, Holodivskyi’s unit saved up a reserve, which he is now forced to begin using up.

“Now, the stores that we saved up are only half-full, and they deliver a lot fewer and a lot less often,” he said.

Earlier in January, a different artillery commander in the 93rd Brigade reported to CNN that Russia was firing 10 shells for every Ukrainian one.

There is no strict mechanism for gathering data on Russian shell expenditure, but the order of magnitude is roughly correct, Holodivskyi said in reaction to the figure, noting that for counter-battery suppression missions, Ukrainian artillery usually fires only one shell, while the enemy can fire up to a dozen for the same task.

“There is a saying,” Holodivskyi said. “‘The price of an artilleryman's sweat is measured in the blood of the infantryman.’”

For the commander, who has been part of Ukraine’s successful transition to NATO artillery every step of the way, the idea of his howitzers going quiet is a terrifying one.

“This is a problem, there is no way around it,” he said. “If they continue to deliver less and less, the reserves that I saved up over time will eventually run out.”

“It's these guys, in their trenches and dugouts, that need our support more than ever, as the enemy is assaulting. If we stopped working completely here, that would be just scary, to be honest.”

To some extent, Ukraine’s shortage of artillery ammunition is alleviated by the widespread use of FPV (first-person view) drones for similar targets on or near the zero line.
While carrying much less explosive force than a shell, FPV drones are a high-precision weapon, much cheaper to produce, and can be constructed at home rather than on an expensive assembly line.
But the idea that drones can truly replace artillery is deeply flawed, according to Holoditskyi.
“Artillery has always been the X-factor on the battlefield,” he said.
“There is a reason why still to this day, our infantry calls for artillery support, not FPV support. The explosion, the shockwave, it all has a major demoralizing effect on the enemy, and artillery can do many things FPVs cannot.”

 

[rockaction]

"The French defence minister @SebLecornu says that last month 'Russian operators threatened to shoot down manned French aircraft on patrol over the Black Sea, in international airspace'"

That's WWIII right there if that happens.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russia procures tank parts from Japan and Taiwan via China

Documents show company in Shenzhen used to evade U.S., U.K. sanctions

asia.nikkei.com

A Russian arms maker is importing components for precision instruments made in Japan and Taiwan essential to tank production as Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues, Nikkei has learned.
According to information obtained by Nikkei, a person connected to the government of Belarus, an ally of Russia, set up a company in China after February 2022, when the full-scale invasion began, and the Russian arms maker has continued to import parts via the company. The information reveals that sanctions aimed at Russia's munitions industry are not functioning effectively, due to trades through a third country. U.S. and British authorities are aware of the situation and are expected to tighten the sanctions.
The information obtained by Belpol, an exiled Belarus opposition organization based outside the country, from collaborators working at arms companies in the country, include contracts, transaction records and payments via financial institutions, involving Russian, Belarusian, Chinese and other companies.
It shows that a person linked to Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko's government founded Shenzhen 5G High-Tech Innovation in China's Guangdong province in 2022 and the company started to procure precision instrument parts for motors, sensors and other equipment needed to make tanks and other weapons.
Parts purchased by Shenzhen 5G include those made by Metrol, a manufacturer of precision positioning sensors in Tachikawa, Tokyo, Oriental Motor, a Tokyo-based maker of small precision motors, and a leading machine tool maker in Aichi prefecture. Shenzhen 5G is thought to have purchased parts in stock from other Chinese companies.
Shenzhen 5G has sent the parts to Belarusian arms maker SALEO and the LLC Laboratory of Additive Technologies. All these entities are under the control of Lukashenko's government. Sensor parts made by Metrol were exported to Saleo for 16,035 yuan ($2,228) per unit in May 2023, for example.
Uladzimir Zhyhar, a representative of Belpol, pointed out that arms companies in Belarus and Russia are making key components for tanks, using precision instruments procured in Asia by SALEO and LLC. Those are sent to Russia's tank maker, UralVagonZavod, to produce T-72, T-90 and other mainline Russian tanks.

Documents from Belpol include those showing that LLC began to procure encoder disks directly from Attoptic, a Taiwanese precision instrument maker, in 2022.
Encoder disks are found in encoders, sensors that detect the amount, direction and angle of motion, and are used in panoramic scopes of T-72s and other tanks. Peleng, a Russian company subject to U.S. and British sanctions, received 600 units for 108,864 euros ($117,818).
According to the information obtained by Belpol, LLC attempted to remit the payment to Attoptic four times, but was blocked by U.S. sanctions. On multiple occasions, it informed Peleng in writing of delays in delivery, saying, "Due to the imposed sanctions, difficulties arose in paying for components. Payments through foreign banks and directly to Taiwan are blocked."
Eventually, LLC bypassed the sanctions and sent the payment via a financial institution in the eastern European nation of Georgia in June 2023. The disks were sent from Taiwan to LLC, also through Georgia, the following month.

Russia’s War Machine Runs on Western Parts

Despite sanctions, Moscow is still importing critical weapon components from the U.S. and Europe.

foreignpolicy.com

But as the war reaches its two-year anniversary, export controls have failed to stem the flow of advanced electronics and machinery making their way into Russia as new and convoluted supply chains have been forged through third countries such as Kazakhstan, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates, which are not party to the export control efforts. An investigation by Nikkei Asia found a tenfold increase in the export of semiconductors from China and Hong Kong to Russia in the immediate aftermath of the war—the majority of them from U.S. manufacturers.
“Life finds a way,” said a senior U.S. intelligence official, quoting the movie Jurassic Park. The official spoke on background to discuss Russia’s evasion of export controls.
Some of the weapons and components analyzed by investigators were likely stockpiled before the war. But widely available Russian trade data reveals a brisk business in imports. More than $1 billion worth of advanced semiconductors from U.S. and European manufacturers made their way into the country last year, according to classified Russian customs service data obtained by Bloomberg. A recent report by the Kyiv School of Economics found that imports of components considered critical for the battlefield had dipped by just 10 percent during the first 10 months of 2023, compared with prewar levels.
This has created a Kafkaesque scenario, the report notes, in which the Ukrainian army is doing battle with Western weapons against a Russian arsenal that also runs on Western components.

While a coalition of 39 countries, including the world’s major manufacturers of advanced electronics, imposed export restrictions on Russia, much of the rest of the world continues to trade freely with Moscow. Components manufactured in coalition countries will often begin their journey to Moscow’s weapons factories through a series of entirely legal transactions before ending up with a final distributor that takes them across the border into Russia. “It starts off as licit trade and ends up as illicit trade,” said a second senior U.S. intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Export controls, experts say, are at best speed bumps designed to make it harder for Russia’s defense industrial base to procure Western components. They create “extra friction and pressure on the Russian economy,” said Daniel Fried, who as the State Department coordinator for sanctions policy helped craft U.S. sanctions on Russia after its annexation of Crimea in 2014. Russia is now paying 80 percent more to import semiconductors than it did before the war, according to forthcoming research by Miller, and the components it is able to acquire are often of dubious quality.

Video of Abrams tank in action: https://twitter.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1760989214772969703

European capitals seek $1.5bn in fallback plan to arm Ukraine

Czech Republic leads initiative to buy artillery shells from outside EU

www.ft.com

European capitals are racing to raise $1.5bn in emergency funding to provide Ukraine with artillery shells from overseas to shore up the front lines against Russia as the full-scale war enters its third year.
The last-ditch scheme to buy ammunition from outside the EU is being spearheaded by the Czech Republic to compensate for the congressional deadlock on US aid and delays in European production.
Prague has taken the initiative as capitals squabble over extending the EU’s main military support facility for Kyiv.
Officials familiar with the discussions say the country needs its European partners to help provide the $1.5bn to finance the ammunition purchases, which Prague has been organising since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.
“The Czechs have done the work, but they need others to provide money,” said a person briefed on the initiative.

Czech President Petr Pavel, a former general and senior Nato official, surprised delegates at the Munich Security Conference last weekend when he said Prague had identified an unnamed country outside the EU with “half a million rounds of 155mm and another 300,000 rounds of 122mm calibre which we can deliver within weeks if we can find quickly funding for that”.
Some EU members have already chipped in, say officials familiar with the Czech scheme.
The Czech government declined several requests for comment.

In a paper for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, analysts, Franz-Stefan Gady and Michael Kofman concluded that Ukraine would need 75,000-90,000 artillery shells a month “to sustain the war defensively, and more than double that — 200,000-250,000 — for a major offensive”.
They added: “At this stage, the western coalition depends mostly on US stocks to sustain the lower range of this figure and does not have the ammunition to support a major offensive next year.”
Russia is able to make 2.5mn shells a year, according to the Royal United Services Institute think-tank. Ukrainian officials say the figure is 4mn including refurbished munitions. But that rate is far below Russia’s own frontline needs. Its forces are estimated to have fired 12mn artillery shells in 2022 and 7mn in 2023.

 

[themeistersinger]

Statement from President Joe Biden Ahead of the Two-Year Anniversary of Russia’s Brutal Assault Against Ukraine | The White House

Two years ago tomorrow, shortly before dawn, Russian missiles began exploding near the capital city of Kyiv. Russian troops marched across the border into Ukraine. Vladimir Putin’s vicious onslaught against Ukraine had begun. He believed that he could easily bend the will and break the resolve...

www.whitehouse.gov

Here's my question - why weren't these sanctions imposed a long time ago? Why have we left anything on the table that could be a "future sanction"? The invasion of Ukraine wasn't bad enough, we had to wait for Navalny to die?

 

[themeistersinger]

NATO gives Ukraine the go-ahead to cross Putin's red line

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that Ukraine is allowed to strike "legitimate military targets" inside Russian territory.

www.newsweek.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

@Chadstroma another A-50 downed:

Ukraine claims it downed another Russian early warning and control plane in a major blow to Moscow

Ukrainian forces have downed a Russian early warning and control aircraft in a major win for the country as it fights back persistent Russian attacks along the front line.

apnews.com

Ukrainian forces downed a Russian early warning and control aircraft Friday, the air force chief said, a major win for the country as its army fights to repel persistent Russian attacks along the front line as the war enters its third year.

Gen. Mykola Oleshchuk thanked Ukraine’s military intelligence for helping down the Russian A-50 aircraft on Russia’s military holiday Friday. “Congratulations to the occupiers on the Defender of the Fatherland day,” Oleshchuk said on a sardonic note.

Ukrainian media carried footage purportedly showing a massive fire that erupted when the big warplane crashed in the Krasnodar region on the eastern coast of the Sea of Azov.
The Russian military didn’t comment on the Ukrainian claim, but emergency officials in the Krasnodar region reported that a plane crashed in the area without identifying it.
Several Russian military bloggers confirmed the plane’s loss and some alleged that it was downed in a friendly fire incident.

Video of the aftermath: https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1761111482551460336

Video: https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1761080881970647199

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1761108313192718407

Another Russian A-50 AWACS plane gets shot down, some 250 km from the frontline, per Russian sources. Russia only has a handful of them.

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1761123863989993504

Russian military correspondents and soldier-bloggers admit that Russia lost 5 warplanes this month alone (the Ukrainian claim is higher) but blame all these downings on a pandemic of “friendly fire” by Russian air defenses. Not sure it’s any less embarrassing at this stage.

 

[The Z Machine]

If those AWACS go down, that will help the F-16s to perform better or at least more safely.

 

[Chadstroma]

@Chadstroma another A-50 downed:

Ukraine claims it downed another Russian early warning and control plane in a major blow to Moscow

Ukrainian forces have downed a Russian early warning and control aircraft in a major win for the country as it fights back persistent Russian attacks along the front line.

apnews.com

Ukrainian forces downed a Russian early warning and control aircraft Friday, the air force chief said, a major win for the country as its army fights to repel persistent Russian attacks along the front line as the war enters its third year.

Gen. Mykola Oleshchuk thanked Ukraine’s military intelligence for helping down the Russian A-50 aircraft on Russia’s military holiday Friday. “Congratulations to the occupiers on the Defender of the Fatherland day,” Oleshchuk said on a sardonic note.

Ukrainian media carried footage purportedly showing a massive fire that erupted when the big warplane crashed in the Krasnodar region on the eastern coast of the Sea of Azov.
The Russian military didn’t comment on the Ukrainian claim, but emergency officials in the Krasnodar region reported that a plane crashed in the area without identifying it.
Several Russian military bloggers confirmed the plane’s loss and some alleged that it was downed in a friendly fire incident.

Video of the aftermath: https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1761111482551460336

Video: https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1761080881970647199

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1761108313192718407

Another Russian A-50 AWACS plane gets shot down, some 250 km from the frontline, per Russian sources. Russia only has a handful of them.

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1761123863989993504

Russian military correspondents and soldier-bloggers admit that Russia lost 5 warplanes this month alone (the Ukrainian claim is higher) but blame all these downings on a pandemic of “friendly fire” by Russian air defenses. Not sure it’s any less embarrassing at this stage.

They have been consistently making the Russians pay in the air and sea.... as well as on the ground but the problem is that Russia has such vast resources to draw on from throwing cannon fodder manpower into the fight to taking T-55's out of deep storage to throw in there. I would venture a guess that replacing an A-50 isn't even possible for them and then run time to do so would be long.... and I don't even know if they have a production line for it. A big win that really hampers Russian operational effectiveness.

The Ukrainians have lost the initiative and are losing ground but that is largely due to our inability to arm them with the ammo (mainly artillery) that they desperately need to keep the Russians at bay and make them pay for offensive operations that they take.

 

[Chadstroma]

If those AWACS go down, that will help the F-16s to perform better or at least more safely.

Their S-series of surface to air missile systems are still a major threat even without any AWACS.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukrainian media says an S-200 shot it down:

The Defense Forces of Ukraine shot down a Russian A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft from a Soviet S-200 air defense system.

Source: Ukrainska Pravda's informed sources in the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine

Details: According to Ukrainska Pravda's source, a Russian A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft was shot down by an S-200 long-range anti-aircraft missile system.

https://twitter.com/GuyPlopsky/status/1761106674537115792

On it's Telegram channel, Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence also states that the aircraft was the more capable A-50U version.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1761131985312092486

It is reported that a Russian Su-34 Fighter Bomber has crashed or been shot down in the Kherson Region, according to Ukrainian Sources

Official confirmation from the Ukrainian Air Force is still needed

EDF Colonel: Tempo of Russia's operations has reduced over last week

Russia has reduced the tempo of its operations in Ukraine this week, but still holds the initiative on the ground, said Col. Ants Kiviselg, commander of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) Intelligence Center.

news.err.ee

Russia has reduced the tempo of its operations in Ukraine this week, but still holds the initiative on the ground, said Col. Ants Kiviselg, commander of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) Intelligence Center.

There have been no major changes on the battlefield in the northern sections. Russia continues to carry out sabotage operations in Ukrainian areas adjacent to the Kursk and Bryansk regions, Col. Kiviselg said.

In the direction of Luhansk, fighting has been more active. "Russia is exerting pressure on both the Kupiansk and Luhansk directions. There are also initial reports that Russia has started to bring in additional units in that direction. The likely objective is to capture the line of the Oskil River. Russia is holding the initiative, but there has been no major progress on their side. There have been very small, marginal advances," Col. Kiviselg said.
On the Donetsk side, the most active fighting is taking place around Bakhmut, Avdiivka and the city of Donetsk itself.

"After the capture of Avdiivka, it can be seen that Russia is trying to reorganize the units it has there in the area. Units from the Central Military District have suffered heavy losses. The seizure of Avdiivika is currently being cleaned up, so to speak, and being taken under control. There is no sign of Russia bringing more units into the Avdiivka area to try to achieve a further breakthrough there," Kiviselg said.

In the direction of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Russian activity has been of a lower intensity than in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. "The Ukrainian bridgehead over the Donetsk River still holds – Russia has not been able to push them back across the river," Col. Kiviselg said.

Putin banked €1B last year from EU fuel buys despite ban

Simple loophole in the EU’s ban on Russian oil allowed Moscow’s fuel to enter the bloc through foreign refineries.

www.politico.eu

The EU last year added €1 billion to Vladimir Putin’s war chest through fuel purchases despite sweeping bans on Russian oil, a new study shared with POLITICO found.

In 2023, the EU bought an estimated 35 million barrels of refined fuels — mostly diesel — originating at least in part from Russia, according to the analysis by NGO Global Witness based on Kpler shipping data.

These purchases were allowed through a gaping and now well-known loophole: Despite the EU ban on nearly all Russian oil imports, countries can still legally buy Moscow’s crude as long as it’s first refined into fuels elsewhere. The result is a steady flow of Russian fuel entering to the EU via places like India and Turkey — and lots of money flowing back to the Kremlin.

The €1 billion figure — equivalent to the cost of around 60,000 of the Iranian-made Shahed drones which Moscow frequently uses to bomb Ukrainian cities — comes as the EU this week agreed to a 13th package of sanctions to mark two years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion.

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukrainian media says an S-200 shot it down:

The Defense Forces of Ukraine shot down a Russian A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft from a Soviet S-200 air defense system.

Source: Ukrainska Pravda's informed sources in the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine

Details: According to Ukrainska Pravda's source, a Russian A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft was shot down by an S-200 long-range anti-aircraft missile system.

https://twitter.com/GuyPlopsky/status/1761106674537115792

On it's Telegram channel, Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence also states that the aircraft was the more capable A-50U version.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1761131985312092486

It is reported that a Russian Su-34 Fighter Bomber has crashed or been shot down in the Kherson Region, according to Ukrainian Sources

Official confirmation from the Ukrainian Air Force is still needed

EDF Colonel: Tempo of Russia's operations has reduced over last week

Russia has reduced the tempo of its operations in Ukraine this week, but still holds the initiative on the ground, said Col. Ants Kiviselg, commander of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) Intelligence Center.

news.err.ee

Russia has reduced the tempo of its operations in Ukraine this week, but still holds the initiative on the ground, said Col. Ants Kiviselg, commander of the Estonian Defense Forces (EDF) Intelligence Center.

There have been no major changes on the battlefield in the northern sections. Russia continues to carry out sabotage operations in Ukrainian areas adjacent to the Kursk and Bryansk regions, Col. Kiviselg said.

In the direction of Luhansk, fighting has been more active. "Russia is exerting pressure on both the Kupiansk and Luhansk directions. There are also initial reports that Russia has started to bring in additional units in that direction. The likely objective is to capture the line of the Oskil River. Russia is holding the initiative, but there has been no major progress on their side. There have been very small, marginal advances," Col. Kiviselg said.
On the Donetsk side, the most active fighting is taking place around Bakhmut, Avdiivka and the city of Donetsk itself.

"After the capture of Avdiivka, it can be seen that Russia is trying to reorganize the units it has there in the area. Units from the Central Military District have suffered heavy losses. The seizure of Avdiivika is currently being cleaned up, so to speak, and being taken under control. There is no sign of Russia bringing more units into the Avdiivka area to try to achieve a further breakthrough there," Kiviselg said.

In the direction of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Russian activity has been of a lower intensity than in the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. "The Ukrainian bridgehead over the Donetsk River still holds – Russia has not been able to push them back across the river," Col. Kiviselg said.

Putin banked €1B last year from EU fuel buys despite ban

Simple loophole in the EU’s ban on Russian oil allowed Moscow’s fuel to enter the bloc through foreign refineries.

www.politico.eu

The EU last year added €1 billion to Vladimir Putin’s war chest through fuel purchases despite sweeping bans on Russian oil, a new study shared with POLITICO found.

In 2023, the EU bought an estimated 35 million barrels of refined fuels — mostly diesel — originating at least in part from Russia, according to the analysis by NGO Global Witness based on Kpler shipping data.

These purchases were allowed through a gaping and now well-known loophole: Despite the EU ban on nearly all Russian oil imports, countries can still legally buy Moscow’s crude as long as it’s first refined into fuels elsewhere. The result is a steady flow of Russian fuel entering to the EU via places like India and Turkey — and lots of money flowing back to the Kremlin.

The €1 billion figure — equivalent to the cost of around 60,000 of the Iranian-made Shahed drones which Moscow frequently uses to bomb Ukrainian cities — comes as the EU this week agreed to a 13th package of sanctions to mark two years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion.

The speculation of how they shot the first one down was basically using some S-200 batteries that were out of range to track it..... right to the point of another battery (most guesses as being one of their Patriot batteries) to quickly turn on, acquire and shoot then going dark.

However they figured it out.... like they have with the sea.... they are taking out valuable Russian assets. And not just the plane, they don't have a big bench strength of trained people for those planes either.

 

[Chadstroma]

MSN

I think this is true. As I mentioned before... the decisions Russia is making now on top of the war itself is going to break Russia in one way or another. Hopefully when it breaks, the regime falls and doesn't become a vassal to China.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

War-weary Ukraine shows renewed interest in Australia's aging Abrams tanks

Australia will be asked to consider donating its entire fleet of aging Abrams tanks to Ukraine as part of a broader package of military support that includes ammunition desperately needed in the war-torn country.

www.abc.net.au

Australia will be asked to consider donating its entire fleet of aging Abrams tanks to Ukraine as part of a broader package of military support that includes ammunition desperately needed in the war-torn country.

On the second anniversary of Russia's brutal invasion, the ABC has learnt Ukraine is finalising another formal request to acquire the Army's M1A1 vehicles which are due to be replaced from next year by the M1A2 version also made in the United States.

Sources inside Kyiv have confirmed that over recent weeks meetings involving Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov have included discussions about approaching the Albanese government to donate all 59 tanks that make up Australia's older fleet.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1761175817202065411

Russian forces have made further gains towards the towns of Sieverne and Ivanivkse west of Avdiivka and Bakhmut, respectively.

Video: https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1761199367728546099

The moment Ukrainian drones hit the Novolipetsk Metallurgical Plant, one of the largest steel plants in Russia

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1761201068489478230

Kyrylo Budanov, director of Ukraine’s military intelligence service, told me in January of Russia’s spy planes: “There are just eight A-50s in good condition.” Today’s downing would make just seven. https://on.ft.com/3ShPS70

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1761195264340115765

Many are curious about the remaining number of operational A-50s in Russia. I have an additional question: How many experienced and skilled crews for A-50s does Russia still have?

Video: https://twitter.com/John_A_Ridge/status/1761166283804901436

And there we have it, video of the SAM fly out toward the A-50U. Looks to confirm it was indeed Russian friendly fire

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://www.wsj.com/world/ukrainian-front-line-troops-defiant-under-pressure-on-wars-second-anniversary-ec6f1550

When Ukrainian Sgt. Andriy Kuprianov called in an artillery strike on a group of Russian soldiers in Avdiivka one recent night, he got back bad news: Not enough ammo.
It is a familiar episode on the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, with Ukraine on the defensive amid shortages of military personnel and ammunition in a war that has killed and maimed hundreds of thousands on both sides. Helped by incremental gains, like the one Kuprianov couldn’t stop, Russia last week captured the eastern city of Avdiivka, its first significant advance in nine months.
“You see the enemy, but you simply can’t strike it,” said the 26-year-old, echoing a frustration voiced by Ukrainian troops all along the 900-mile front line.

Western officials and military analysts say that Ukraine could use this year to wear down Russia’s combat strength while rebuilding its own forces with Western training and support, before launching another counteroffensive against a weakened opponent in 2025.
“Russia holds the material advantages and much of the initiative along the front,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank. “But the Russian military can’t afford to fight that many Avdiivkas in 2024 given how much equipment they lost in that battle.”
This is part of the reason why, according to Ukrainian officials, the fight for Avdiivka was strategically beneficial to Ukraine. Open-source intelligence analysts say Russia lost hundreds of armored vehicles in its final assault on the city, and thousands of lives. As Ukraine shifts to defense, soldiers and military officials say it can bleed and grind down the Russians when they go on the offensive against well-prepared Ukrainian positions.
“We couldn’t hold on to Avdiivka, but it was the perfect place in which to bury a lot of Russians into the earth,” said a junior sergeant operating a U.S.-supplied Bradley Fighting Vehicle outside Ocheretyne, a village near Avdiivka.

The open source info can be found here regarding the Avdiivka equipment losses

After losing much of its professional military, Ukraine is in dire need of recruits. Controversial legislation, which cuts the draft age from 27 to 25, limits options for deferral and increases penalties for evasion, is expected to face a decisive vote in parliament in the coming weeks. But it has been retracted and revised several times, and may not pass in its current form.
“The mobilization law is an important bellwether of Ukraine’s will to continue this war,” said Kofman, the analyst. “Either they get more men or it’s not clear how they’re going to sustain this war.”

Across a front line stretching from the southern Kherson region to the Kharkiv region in the northeast, excavators are now carving out new trenches as Ukrainian troops dig in. Russia’s capture of Avdiivka places a renewed focus on Pokrovsk, a town of 60,000 residents to the west that has become a refuge for residents fleeing front-line villages and is now set to become a military hub too.
In villages close to Avdiivka, residents who remain say Russia has stepped up its attacks, dropping bombs with 230 kilograms of explosives to destroy what is in its path.
“We used to be a good distance from the front,” said Oleksandr Momot, a civil protection officer responsible for infrastructure and safety in Ocheretyne, where only 400 residents remain. “Since Avdiivka fell we’re being hit with mortars and even tank fire, and feel the Russians getting closer.”

Client Challenge

Russia’s annual artillery munition production has risen from 800,000 prewar to an estimated 2.5mn, or 4mn including refurbished shells. EU and US production capacity stands at about 700,000 and 400,000 respectively, although the EU aims to hit 1.4mn by the end of this year and the US 1.2mn by 2024.

Financial Times is wrong here. Last US projections I saw were around 70,000 per month by the end of 2024. The 1.2 million figure is by October 2025.

Russia's stockpile is around 3 million currently. They're also receiving the 1 million or so rounds from North Korea. The Estonians estimated the pre-war stockpile to be around 17 million. They also estimated that through December 2022, Russia fired 10 million rounds. The estimate for 2023 that I've read is 7 million fired. The Estonian defense ministry said, "Russia’s total production and recovery of artillery ammunition will reach 3.5 million units in 2023, representing a more than threefold increase from the previous year’s production. In 2024, production and recovery will increase further and would likely reach up to 4.5 million units." RUSI says, "Russian overall artillery production is likely to plateau at 3 million rounds per year of all natures – including MLRS..." If Russia is firing 6,000 to 10,000 shells a day, that's roughly 2,190,000 to 3,650,000 for 2024 (although that is assuming the current rate stays consistent for the entire year). The Estonians estimate that Ukraine needs, "a minimum of 200,000 shells a month to retain localized fire superiority." This is 2.4 million a year (and roughly 6500-6700 a day......Ukraine is currently at 2000 per day). Kofman and Stefan-Gady recently wrote that, "Our field research indicates that Ukraine will need around 75,000–90,000 artillery shells per month to sustain the war defensively, and more than double that – 200,000–250,000 – for a major offensive."

Edit: These numbers do not include the reported 800,000 rounds the Czechs have found. Or any further indirect assistance from South Korea as they indirectly sent hundreds of thousands of rounds prior to the 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive. And does not include any further North Korean shipments.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Video: https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1761408319627952256

On the 2nd anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion Ukrainians lined the streets of central Kyiv calling for the many prisoners of war still held in Russia to come home. A somber scene, in near-complete silence.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1761405954355277958

Zelensky says he and Trudeau in Kyiv today “signed a security cooperation agreement between Ukraine and Canada, which allocates over CAD 3 billion in macro-financial and defense assistance in 2024.”

https://twitter.com/valentinapop/status/1761389231409086647

Nato chief says it is inevitable Ukraine will join defence alliance as a handful western leaders gather in Kyiv to show support on the second anniversary of Russia’s full scale invasion.

How Russia's military uses volunteer fighters to plug gaps in Ukraine

When Russian forces withdrew from the town of Balakliia in eastern Ukraine in late 2022, pursued by Ukrainian troops and under artillery fire, they left a poorly equipped group of volunteers to guard their retreat.
The force of around 50 men came from the National Army Combat Reserve - known by its Russian acronym BARS - a loose assembly of units totaling several thousand fighters that Russia's defense ministry has deployed in Ukraine to supplement its regular forces.
About four hours of footage from a bodycam worn by one of the fighters, obtained by Reuters, provides a rare first-hand view of the combat operations of a BARS unit, according to three military experts who reviewed the video to provide an assessment for the news agency of the unit's military capability.
The invasion of Ukraine marked the first time BARS, which was founded in 2015, deployed units in combat. The video, coupled with interviews with four platoon members, shows the BARS unit was left to defend Balakliia with no heavy weaponry or air support, malfunctioning communications, and confused coordination with the regular military.
"Where is our air force?" asked one of the BARS fighters. His squad, tasked with defending a crossroads north of the town, was sharing a mess tin of cold meat stew during a break in Ukrainian shelling.
The squad leader, Anton Kuznetsov, whose bodycam recorded the exchange, told the men that there must be a good reason there was no air support. "Do they understand that we're surrounded?" complained another soldier, off-camera.

On at least two occasions, President Vladimir Putin has publicly praised the contribution of BARS to Russia's campaign. In a Feb. 21, 2023 annual address to parliament, he said BARS fighters were patriotic volunteers and thanked them for their service.
As the war enters a third year, BARS is part of a patchwork of irregular forces that helps Russia avoid an unpopular general draft, the military experts said.
Rod Thornton, associate professor at the Defence Studies Department of King's College London, estimated that BARS contributes between 10,000 and 30,000 men to a Russian force operating in or near Ukraine of about 200,000. Russia does not disclose the number of BARS fighters.
In recent months, BARS units have been fighting in north-east Ukraine and in the southern Zaporizhzhia region, two of the most bitterly contested fronts, according to updates posted on social media by Dmitry Rogozin, the Moscow-appointed representative for Zaporizhzhia in the upper house of the Russian parliament, and a report from Russian state news agency RIA Novosti.
BARS units were useful in plugging gaps in Russian manpower, said Nick Reynolds, Research Fellow in Land Warfare at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a UK-based defence think tank.
"With the Russian state clearly mobilizing for a longer conflict, a system such as BARS does provide an additional avenue from which to mobilize parts of the population, get them trained and provide additional mass," said Reynolds, who reviewed the bodycam footage.
He said the group shown in the video appeared "not particularly professional or well trained."

 

[themeistersinger]

After 2 years of war, questions abound on whether Kyiv can sustain the fight against Russia

The future looks bleak for war-weary Ukraine. It's beset by shortages in soldiers and ammunition, as well as doubts about the supply of Western aid.

apnews.com

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Is anyone worried that this is like a long con, getting the entire world to be short on military supplies and then china, Russia and Iran do some real WW3 type stuff and we are all undersupplied?

 

[The Z Machine]

Is anyone worried that this is like a long con, getting the entire world to be short on military supplies and then china, Russia and Iran do some real WW3 type stuff and we are all undersupplied?

I certainly hope not. If the ess really hit the fan, I do wonder how long it would take the US to ramp up the domestic defense industry. Feels like too long these days... and that's coming from someone that is very anti-war and anti-military industrial complex.

Also, I'm writing this from China right now. Hope my VPN is solid...

 

[themeistersinger]

Also, I'm writing this from China right now. Hope my VPN is solid...

Unlikely - your VPN probably terminates on a Chinese node before being re-established to your provider. So everybody except China probably can't see what you are writing.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/ikhurshudyan/status/1761776953311236500

In a press conference in Kyiv, President Volodymyr Zelensky says 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in this war. First time he’s stated casualties. Declined to say how many wounded.

Zelensky said there is a “clear” military plan for this year, and it’s related to the recent change in military leadership but he can’t say more. Declined to say why he replaced Gen. Zaluzhny. “This is our internal issue.”
Zelensky also claimed that four brigades that were supposed to participate in the counteroffensive last year couldn’t because promised materiel from Western partners never arrived.
Zelensky said Russia has an approximately 7-1 fire advantage on the battlefield right now.

US officials put the number of Ukrainian dead at 70,000 back in August of 2023.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-still-discussing-supplying-long-range-weapons-ukraine-foreign-minister-2024-02-24/

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, in Ukraine's Black Sea port of Odesa on Saturday, said Germany was still discussing whether to supply long-range weapons to Ukraine.
"Of course, everything (in regards to military support) we are delivering is too little," she said at a press conference after paying an unannounced visit to the country.
"We're racking our brains, especially through the past year, about the issue of how to deliver more, including long-range weapons systems," she said at the event, held jointly with her Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba on the second anniversary of Russia's military invasion of Ukraine.

Deputy Commander: Ukraine not trying to replace artillery with drones

Ukraine is not trying to replace artillery with drones on the battlefield, Deputy Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces Vadym Sukharevskyi said on Feb. 25.

kyivindependent.com

Ukraine is not trying to replace artillery with drones on the battlefield, Deputy Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces Vadym Sukharevskyi said on Feb. 25.

High-ranking Ukrainian officials met to discuss Ukraine’s future at the “Ukraine. Year 2024” forum on Feb. 25, one day after the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale war.

The forum discussed achieving Ukraine’s goals in the war, developing its defense and security forces, implementing Ukraine’s peace formula, ensuring economic growth and integration into world markets, security guarantees, the status of its military-industrial complex, and protecting the lives of Ukrainians.

Ukraine's goal in 2024 is to meet Russian forces on the battlefield with drones, Sukharevskyi said at the forum.

According to Sukharevskyi, the Ukrainian military is not abandoning old systems, but rather looking for solutions to strengthen its existing capabilities.

Budanov: Russia's goals for 2024 same as previous two years

Ukraine's military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said that Russia’s goal is still to destroy Ukrainian statehood and reach the administrative border of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts to “keep what they already have," but that they "have been unable to do (so) by military means."

kyivindependent.com

Russia’s strategic goals for 2024 remain the same as before, Ukraine's military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov told the Kyiv Independent at the "Ukraine. Year 2024" forum on Feb. 25.

He said that Russia’s goal is still to destroy Ukrainian statehood and reach the administrative border of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts to “keep what they already have," but that they "have been unable to do (so) by military means."

“In 2022-2023, they failed to do so, and in 2024 they will not be able to do so either,” Budanov said.

The "Ukraine. Year 2024" forum discussed achieving Ukraine’s goals in the war, developing its defense and security forces, implementing Ukraine’s peace formula, ensuring economic growth and integration into world markets, security guarantees, the status of its military-industrial complex, and protecting the lives of Ukrainians.

Addressing concerns that Russia may have Iranian missiles, Budanov told reporters that Moscow currently has none and is unlikely to do so in the future.

Ukrainian defense minister: 50% of Western military aid arrives late – DW – 02/25/2024

p.dw.com

Half of Western military aid to Kyiv is delivered late, Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov said on Sunday.

"At the moment, commitment does not constitute delivery," Umerov said during a forum dedicated to the second anniversary of Russia's invasion.

"Fifty percent of commitments are not delivered on time," he added, saying this helped Russia.

Ukraine, which is struggling with an ammunition shortage, has for months said that Western aid is slow to reach the country.

The issue is likely to worsen due to the blocking of further American aid to Kyiv by the US Congress.

Umerov said that delayed aid will mean Kyiv will "lose people, lose territories," especially given Russia's "air superiority."

 

[themeistersinger]

Zelensky: 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed in Russia's war

Around 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been recorded as killed by Russia's war, President Volodymyr Zelensky said at the "Ukraine. Year 2024" forum in Kyiv on Feb. 25.

kyivindependent.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Boris Nadezhdin: 'I Learned from Navalny's Mistakes' - The Moscow Times

Boris Nadezhdin says he will not rally his supporters to protest against his exclusion from next month's presidential election — because, he says, he has learned from “Alexei Navalny's mistakes.” “It would mean exposing my supporters to the police and Rosgvardia’s batons,” Nadezhdin told The...

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Two Years In, Why I’m Not Optimistic About Putin’s War on Ukraine

COMMENTARY: The situation remains grave. Pope Francis certainly understands that.

www.ncregister.com

 

[rockaction]

Two Years In, Why I’m Not Optimistic About Putin’s War on Ukraine

COMMENTARY: The situation remains grave. Pope Francis certainly understands that.

www.ncregister.com

So Poland.

:sighs:

Ukraine was never going to be enough.

 

[FarFromHome]

Two Years In, Why I’m Not Optimistic About Putin’s War on Ukraine

COMMENTARY: The situation remains grave. Pope Francis certainly understands that.

www.ncregister.com

So Poland.

:sighs:

Ukraine was never going to be enough.

Seems like in every world war step one is invade Poland. A tough people that have been through a hell of a lot.

Quick story about Poland. We used to train in Poland for 30 day blocks. I remember pulling full battle rattle gate guard with Polish military guards. They were drinking all night during shift. I remember one of them kept wanting to hold my m4 rifle because he thought it was cool. Thought I was gonna respond and have an international event. Ha ha

 

[themeistersinger]

Putin's War, Week 104. Second Anniversary of the 72-Hour Special Military Operation

https://redstate.com/streiff/2024/02/24/putins-war-week-104-n2170491

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Military intelligence: Russia plans to produce 2.7 million shells this year

Russia plans to produce 2.7 million shells in 2024, an increase from around 2 million 122 and 152 mm shells manufactured by the country last year, Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy head of Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR), told Interfax Ukraine.

kyivindependent.com

Russia plans to produce 2.7 million shells in 2024, an increase from around 2 million 122 and 152 mm shells manufactured by the country last year, Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy head of Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR), told Interfax Ukraine.

Russia has a significant advantage in the number of ammunition on Ukraine's front lines, firing around three times more shells per day than Ukrainian forces, according to a document prepared by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and seen by Bloomberg.

Kyiv is being confronted with critical shortages of ammunition, as $61 billion in funding from the U.S. remains stuck in Congress, causing defense aid deliveries to run dry. Reports suggest Ukraine could face a catastrophic deficit of ammunition and air defenses within weeks.

Russia's goal to produce 2.7 million shells "requires, first of all, modernization of production, putting back (inactive facilities) in operation or creation of new lines (of production), Skibitskyi said in an interview with Interfax Ukraine published on Feb. 23.

"That is why we are asking our partners that the sanctions should be aimed at machines, at components for electronic chips, microcircuits, and so on."

As well as producing new ammunition, Russia refurbishes Soviet stocks of artillery ammunition, bringing the amount available to "3-4 million units in 2023," Estonia's Foreign Intelligence Service said in a report published on Feb. 13.

Russia is simultaneously "preparing for a prolonged conflict with Ukraine, necessitating additional armies and army corps" while planning to reorganize its troops on the border with NATO countries, according to the Estonian intelligence agency.

Russia is also receiving new supplies of ammunition from abroad, with North Korea reportedly becoming Russia's largest arms supplier.

Russia has so far received 1.5 million 122 mm and 152 mm shells from North Korea, Skibitskyi said. "These shells are 70-80 years old, and half of them do not work," he added.

Der Spiegel: Germany conducting negotiations to procure ammunition from India

Germany is conducting "discreet negotiations" to procure artillery ammunition from India, which is estimated to have "several hundred thousand rounds" stored in stockpiles, Der Spiegel reported on Feb. 25.

kyivindependent.com

Germany is conducting "discreet negotiations" to procure artillery ammunition from India, which is estimated to have "several hundred thousand rounds" stored in stockpiles, Der Spiegel reported on Feb. 25.

The European Union's top diplomat, Josep Borrell, said on Feb. 19 that he has urged member states to procure ammunition for Ukraine outside the bloc if this source of supply is "better, cheaper, and quicker."

Kyiv is facing critical ammunition shortages, as $61 billion in funding from the U.S. remains stuck in Congress, causing defense aid deliveries to run dry. Reports suggest Ukraine could face a catastrophic shortage of supplies like shells and air defenses within weeks.

Der Spiegel reported that Berlin is looking to Arab states, as well as countries in the Balkans and Africa, for new supplies of ammunition for Ukraine.

The German military is currently looking to stockpiles in countries outside the EU, with a group of military officers, diplomats, and civil servants meeting in Berlin every two weeks to assess which "which countries can be approached that may still have ammunition stocks."

Negotiations are being conducted with New Delhi in a "discreet" way given its "friendly relations with Moscow," Der Spiegel said.

Ukraine's Foreign Minister says EU will supply Ukraine with 170,000 shells by late March

Following a telephone conversation with Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba announced that the EU plans to supply Ukraine with nearly 170,000 shells by the end of March.

news.yahoo.com

Following a telephone conversation with Josep Borrell, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba announced that the EU plans to supply Ukraine with nearly 170,000 shells by the end of March.

In March 2023, the EU reached an agreement to provide Ukraine with one million rounds of ammunition in a year but failed to reach this goal. To date, the EU has delivered 355,000 rounds, with 1.155 million planned by the end of the year.

That seems roughly in line with the previous revision of 524,000 by March.

Graphic video: https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1761873688545120568

TW: violence.

Horrific video published by Ukraine’s human rights ombudsman @lubinetzs allegedly showing Russian soldiers shooting at least 7 Ukrainian troops as they emerge from a trench and surrender with their hands up on the western edge of Bakhmut.

https://twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1762060844886597922

Ukrainian command says its forces have withdrawn from the village of Lastochkyne, immediately west of Avdiivka. Russian forces captured Avdiivka 9 days ago.

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1762081990700851209

A video of a Russian strike against the launcher of NASAMS air defense system, operated by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. After the strike, the characteristic fire of anti-aircraft missiles and their fuel can be seen.

This is the the first confirmed loss of this piece of equipment in Ukraine.

The strike occurred in the settlement of Malyshivka in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, around 50km from the frontline. 47.933605, 34.990498

 

[Orange&Blue]

Two Years In, Why I’m Not Optimistic About Putin’s War on Ukraine

COMMENTARY: The situation remains grave. Pope Francis certainly understands that.

www.ncregister.com

So Poland.

:sighs:

Ukraine was never going to be enough.

yet Europe and US can't even get onboard to stop him now.

US can't get a bill through congress and germany doesn't want to give Taurus missiles for fear of retaliation. Wake the hell up, people.

This is Hitler 2.0.

 

[Orange&Blue]

seeing reports that an abrams was knocked out. not surprising as it was going to happen eventually, but russian trolls are all over it.