*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (12 Viewers)

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine's newest anti-submarine corvette - the Hetman Ivan Mazepa - undergoes first sea trials - photo

Ukraine's Hetman Ivan Mazepa (F211) Ada-class anti-submarine corvette, built at the Turkish shipyard RMK Marine in Tuzla, Istanbul, went on its first sea trials on May 29, Turkish maritime observer Enes Balcı reported on X.

au.news.yahoo.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Chinese trade body seeks drone jammers for Russian buyers

Procurement notice follows concern in US and Europe over China’s sale of dual-use goods to Moscow

www.ft.com

A Chinese trade body sought to buy drone-jamming equipment for Russian buyers last month, underlining the close ties between the two countries amid concerns in Europe and the US over China’s supply of dual-use technology to Moscow.
The government-affiliated Guangdong Province Trade Promotion Association for Russia, which was set up last year to help Russian customers buy goods ranging from trucks to boats, posted a “Notice of foreign enterprises purchasing [unmanned aerial vehicle] equipment” on its WeChat social media site.
The association said the buyers wanted “interference generators, drone detectors (trade names BorisTone, Assel Labs, Bulat) or other similar technological solutions, UAV suppressors, communication frequency band jammers”.
The buyers wanted a locally made equivalent to the Bulat drone detectors, which were developed by a St Petersburg company, 3mx. 3mx has said that these detectors have been used “on the front lines” during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Ukraine war: Can using Western weapons on Russia change the war?

The latest Russian advance in the Kharkiv region has convinced Kyiv’s allies to change their policy.

www.bbc.com

The only weapon capable of intercepting those planes that Ukraine has at its disposal at this moment is the US air-defence system Patriot. However, getting this weapon close to Kharkiv is a huge risk. Spy drones can quickly spot it and Moscow can launch missiles such as Iskander to destroy this expensive system.
Interestingly, the UK and France, which provide Ukraine with jointly made Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles (or Scalp as they are called in France), haven’t explicitly restricted their use. And their range can go up to 250km. In fact, French President Emanuel Macron told journalists last week:“We should allow [Ukraine] to neutralise the military sites from which the missiles are fired and, basically, the military sites from which Ukraine is attacked.”
And such rhetoric is seen as permission to use Storm Shadows/Scalps, a military aviation officer who prefers to remain anonymous, told the BBC. So, he says, Ukraine can now hit airfields in the Kursk and Belgorod regions that border Ukraine.

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I see that it is being reported that France has authorized the targeting of military airfields in the Bilhorod and Kursk regions with SCALP-EG cruise missiles. The BBC article referred to quotes an anonymous military aviation officer, who makes an assessment of Macron's previously used words.

Neither Macron himself nor anyone else from the French government has officially announced permission to target military airfields in Bilhorod and Kursk with French long-range weapons.

These are assumptions from an anonymous source.

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This morning, Ukrainian forces successfully struck a Russian warehouse complex in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast.

The warehouse was inside Russia, roughly 12km behind the frontline in Vovchansk city.

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First time seeing a new Russian 2S43 Malva 152mm self-propelled howitzer taking part in combat in Ukraine.

The first batch of these SPGs was reported to be delivered to the Russian army in October 2023.

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1/2 Another Russian claim of a DJI Mavic "replacement" - a Ekaterinburg-based company developed a "Stalker" light UAV that is supposedly EW-proof. The company intends to test it in Ukraine and then lunch the drone into mass production.
2/2 Previous claims of a DJI "killer" did not materialize - several major Russian defense companies also claimed in 2022-2023 to develop a Mavic analogue but were not successful. Today, Russian soldiers, bloggers and volunteers say there is no replacing a DJI Mavic anytime soon.

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Italian exports to Kyrgyzstan in January and February 2024 are up 2200% from the same two months in 2019. It's an open secret that these exports are going to Russia, where they help keep Putin's war economy going. It is beyond baffling that Europe's policy makers do nothing...

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The battle for Vovchansk continues. And it feels like that this is only the beginning.

It’s totally clear that RUAF will use at this direction more reserves and will try to do that have been written here a couple of weeks ago — they will try to cut the logistics near Kypansk
They have started that advance at this direction mainly with 138 brigade and some assault companies from different regiment.

Right now they deployed at least one battalion of 25 mechanised brigade and one air assault battalion (also recon company, snipers company) of 83 VDV unit
From day to day the launch a different amount of guided bombs. The last time I had a task they used 17 guided bombs.

I don’t whether it’s a lot of not.

But we continue digging.
But, in general, they are constantly firing at our positions.

I just wait when they finally will use other regimens of the 44 AC and 72 division.

Right now in the city they use only infantry. And evacuation is on foot.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine’s largest hydroelectric dam in critical condition after Russian strikes, authorities say

Ukraine’s largest hydroelectric dam, the Dnipro Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP), is in “critical condition” after it was hit in a Russian strike on Ukraine’s key energy facilities, authorities say.

The head of the Zaporizhzhia region military administration, Ivan Fedorov, told Ukrainian television that the power plant can no longer produce electricity.

Traffic around the plant is “completely blocked,” he said, with residents being forced to drive over bridges to get around, he said.

Russia has continued its tactic of striking key energy facilities this week, with the Ukrainian Ministry of Energy warning Sunday of a “significant power shortage” as a knock-on effect of the strikes.

The ministry said that emergency blackouts were carried out in several regions of Ukraine after “six massive attacks.”

Ukraine’s Ministry of Energy said power facilities in the regions of Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, Kirovohrad, and Ivano-Frankivsk were hit, in what the ministry called “the sixth massive missile and drone strike on energy facilities since March 22.”

Thread on drones: https://x.com/sambendett/status/1797282302478758113

1/ QUICK TAKE from Russia's Project Archangel volunteer effort on the impact of Ukrainian drones on Russian advances and tactics - quick translation as follows: "How are things now? Frankly, they suck. From October'23 to today, the Ukrainian forces have been slowing down and stopping our offensives in one area or another with..."
2/ "...the help of special (separate) UAV detachments - representatives of the Ukrainian forces. There were initially 10 such detachments operating near Avdiivka. In addition to maneuvering combined arms reserves, the Ukrainian command also maneuvers these detachments."
3/ The consumption rates of FPV drones among Ukr. forces have been described as follows: 3-4 per for each of our fighters in the assault group when repelling our attack; 6-10 per tank or IFV/APC. The result is dozens of knocked out and destroyed tanks and IFVs/APCs/MTLBs near Avdiivka..."
4/ "...and the failure of the original plan to break through the front and create a large salient. We then had to create a small salient and gnaw our way through the city. The general impressions from our wounded from the Zaporozhye direction, from near Avdiivka and Chasov Yar are as follows..."
5/ "... our infantry "catches" (absorbs strikes by) drones and occupies territory when the enemy runs out of drones, while we still have people in the ranks. I say all this in the most polite way possible - this is a very raw cry from my very soul. To be more specific..."
6/ "When preparing for an assault, it is necessary to conduct electronic reconnaissance using drone detectors, and to map out frequencies at which enemy FPVs, Mavics and other drones operate. But this is not done, because drone detectors are supplied by volunteers, or soldier buy their own."
7/ "The command of many military units either doesn't care or actually helps to obtain individual samples. There is no sufficient supply (centralized or decentralized). There is no tactual inclusion of radio electronic reconnaissance in the preparation for an offensive. As a rule, there are some exceptions."
8/ "Trench electronic warfare in the form of samples that are quite cheap for the MOD (but not for volunteers and fighters) is purchased by volunteers or by soldiers at their own expense. The number (of systems) is insufficient relative to the number of assault groups involved."
9/ "The level of training and knowledge of each specific (EW) jammer is insufficient, because people themselves are forced to study (the specs), to the best of their ability and time. Linking EW using drone detectors with suppressing current frequencies of Ukrainian drones using EW is, as a rule, not carried out..."
10/ " ...- the results are carcasses of our tanks and infantry fighting vehicles near Avdiivka. Every third infantryman can be given a shotgun for an assault, since there may be no skirmishes with enemy infantry - the Ukrainians may retreat from positions under our artillery fire - but there will definitely be raids by Ukr. drones."
11/ "But! There are not enough shotguns, there is not enough ammunition for them, and, most importantly, there is no appropriate fire training, as well as no sufficient time for combat training in general. The near rear of our troops suffers from raids by Ukr. “Baba Yagas” and FPV drones. What does our air defense have to oppose this?"
12/ "With the efforts by other volunteer workers and at our own expense, we got thermal imagers for (light and heavy machine guns) for air surveillance posts. This quantity is not enough to cover the entire front, but, for example, even this quantity was enough to start knocking down Ukrainian FPVs 1-4 per day."
13/ "At our own expense and with the help of private assistance, we acquired additional munitions - yet their numbers are laughable. But even one anti-aircraft machine gun per brigade(!) with a thermal imager sooner or later shot down the Baba Yaga drone, according to feedback."
14/ "There were never enough anti-aircraft mobile groups. Basically, these are self-initiated groups led by air defense chiefs in regiments or brigades. This is approximately how things stand now, according to wounded soldiers discussing their combat experience and sharing their observations."
15/ "The length of (we don't care-ness) of the previous MOD leadership in the fight against drones is equal to the depth of the fall of the ambitious initial plans for the autumn '23-winter'24 offensive. The companies had to replenish troops monthly throughout the offensive in the Avdiivka - the inability to field EW + air defense against enemy drones is the main reason."
16/ "The Ukrainian forces decided to change the balance in our grinding strategy in their favor, especially when we are advancing. This is done by maneuvering reserves, including UAV units, plus tactics for repelling our attacks - when we begin to fire, the Ukrainians leave their forward positions and retreat to the second line - at this point they suffer most of their losses."
17/ “When our assault groups advance, the Ukr. reconnaissance teams begin to target and direct artillery, mortars, FPV drones and automatic guns - our soldiers then start suffering losses. After our forces occupy the Ukr. positions, they are again hammered by enemy artillery and drones, and suffer losses again.
18/ “We are then being forced to retreat because of fires and the impact of drones. The Ukr. forces then can go on a counterattack. When our soldiers retreat, the Ukrainians take up the positions."
19/ "Therefore, in order to turn the grinding advance in our favor, it is necessary to solve the problem of Ukrainian drones. And of our poor combat training - need to increase time, provide better quality materials, and change the approach to conducting operations by refusing to simply take positions for the sake of holding positions."
20/ "The good news is that the problem of air defense and electronic warfare of the front line and near rear has been addressed. The bad news is that it happened only recently, although the Ukrainians have been attacking our front and near rear since July 2023."
21/ "Now we are waiting for more people, weapons and equipment - since the process is underway, now all enthusiasts have a chance to prove themselves, and manufacturers and bloggers have a chance to inform about what equipment they can offer. We shouldn’t forget about tactics; on the contrary, it’s time to record the enemy’s and our own tactics and start tracking major trends."

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Basic training in Ukraine is barely covering the basics, commanders say

As Ukraine prepares to mobilize tens of thousands of men to address a critical shortage of soldiers amid intensified Russian attacks, Ukrainian commanders in the field say they are bracing for most of the new troops to arrive with poor training.
Ukrainian commanders have long griped about lackluster preparation for recruits at training centers. But with Russia on the offensive, the persistent complaints are a reminder that a newly adopted mobilization law intended to widen the pool of draft-eligible men is just one step in solving the military’s personnel problems.

Wherever the new soldiers come from, Ukrainian field commanders said that because training is so deficient, they must often devote weeks to teaching them basic skills, such as how to shoot.
“We had guys that didn’t even know how to disassemble and assemble a gun,” said a 28-year-old deputy battalion commander from the 93d Mechanized Brigade, whom The Washington Post agreed to identify by his call sign, Schmidt, according to Ukrainian military protocol.
Schmidt said that he spent the first week with soldiers transferred from rear posts just making sure each one fire at least one box of bullets — some 1,500 shots — daily before moving on to more complex tasks. Within weeks, these soldiers could be fighting near the embattled town of Chasiv Yar, where Russian forces have been making advances.
“We are just wasting a lot of time here on basic training,” Schmidt said, adding: “If, God forbid, there will be a breakthrough near Chasiv Yar, and we get new infantry that doesn’t know basic things, they will be sent there to just die.”

For front-line commanders, any new troops are welcome, given that some units have endured months without reinforcements. But many of these redeployed arrivals appear ill-prepared, commanders said, despite many having served in the military since the start of Russia’s invasion more than two years ago, albeit far from the battlefield.
Until about a month ago, a Ukrainian soldier, whose call sign is Val, had been standing guard on a bridge in the southern Odessa region — the same job he’d been doing every day since he enlisted at the start of the invasion.
On April 30, Val was told that he was being transferred to combat duty. Within 24 hours, he was assigned to the 93rd Brigade and instructed to deploy to the eastern Donetsk region. He didn’t even have time to pack his things — some had to be shipped later.
“It’s scary,” the 31-year-old said. “Nobody was really prepared.”
For a reconnaissance unit in the 42nd Mechanized Brigade, which was recently redirected to the northeast Kharkiv region to defend against a renewed Russian offensive, many of the scouts had just been reassigned from rear roles and were given just two weeks preparation before being sent into combat, to carry out tasks that at times require sneaking behind enemy lines.
What is taught in Ukrainian training centers “is complete nonsense,” said a 32-year-old soldier in the unit with the call sign Chirva. “Everything is learned on the spot.”

An officer who has spent more than a year instructing new soldiers at one of Ukraine’s facilities said the training centers are low on Soviet-caliber ammunition because it is being saved for troops on the battlefield. That means recruits get little experience firing live rounds. The officer said the training center received just 20 bullets per person.
“There are no grenades for throwing in training centers, and there are no grenade launcher rounds in the training center,” said the officer, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to do so publicly. “This is the problem.”
“We don’t have a proper training system in place,” the officer continued, adding that Ukraine needs its instructors to be taught by NATO trainers to condense the standard two-month basic training into one month.
A current priority for Ukraine’s General Staff is securing more training for recruits abroad — at facilities that can’t be targeted by Russian bombardment, unlike those in Ukraine. Britain so far has provided the most basic training for Ukrainians. In a potential boost, France is considering sending instructors to Ukraine to help prepare draftees, Syrsky said in a post on social media this week.

The chief sergeant for a battalion fighting in the eastern Donetsk region described a process in which certain brigades, particularly assault brigades, often get first pick of new soldiers brought to training centers.
The sergeant, who is typically sent to training centers to select troops for his battalion, spoke on the condition of anonymity to be candid and because he was not authorized to discuss the sensitive matter publicly.
Some assault brigades might devote personnel to live practically full-time near training centers, the sergeant said, to quickly snatch up the youngest, fittest, most motivated men. The officer who was an instructor at a training center confirmed that some brigades indeed plot for first dibs.
“If they send us to recruit someone, all the good ones have already been taken by other brigades, and you have to choose from the crooked, lame, sick ones,” the sergeant said. “And so you choose from them, dammit.”
The sergeant said that he aims to communicate with soldiers to get a sense for who is more willing to fight versus those who were conscripted forcibly and might refuse orders on the battlefield. This is expected to become an issue of heightened importance, as most Ukrainians eager to serve have already volunteered to do so. Those who have not yet volunteered tend to be resistant to fighting.
Some recruits, the sergeant said, are deemed physically fit despite being over age 50 with knee and back issues, meaning they will struggle to walk miles with a pack of gear and weapons, as is often required. Some brigades are ordered to take those men anyway.
“There are guys whom you just look in the eye and understand he’s hesitating,” the sergeant said. “He needs a push. He needs confidence in his weapon, confidence that we won’t abandon him, and he will fight.”
“And there are those who immediately say, ‘I won’t fight,’” he added. “Of course, you try not to take them. But again, in our army, it’s set up so that the personnel department tells you, ‘No way, you have to take him, he’s healthy.’”

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Russian raids against Ukraine as of 2 JUN 2024.

From AUG 2022 to present, Ukraine has reported 2,074 subsonic cruise missiles, 169 supersonic cruise missiles, 5 hypersonic cruise missiles, 738 ballistic missiles, 335 tactical missiles, and 5,585 one-way attack UAVs.
Since AUG 2022, Ukraine has reported intercepting 1,703 subsonic cruise missiles, 2 supersonic cruise missiles, 2 hypersonic cruise missiles, 71 ballistic missiles, 175 tactical missiles, and 4,781 one-way attack UAVs.

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"Denys Yaroslavsky, commander of a reconnaissance battalion in Ukraine’s 57th Brigade, entered the border town of Vovchansk on May 2, accompanied by four battalions of exhausted troops. Fresh from the battlefield in a different northeastern city, they soon realized their new positions were the first line of defense — and that only 200 troops were already stationed in the town.

When Russian forces pushed in just over a week later, he said, 'we lost almost the entire battalion.'"
@AlexHortonTX@siobhan_ogrady@michaelbirnbaum@nakashimae@Kostiantyn Khudov

https://washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/06/01/us-ukraine-weapons-kharkiv-biden/

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Romania considers supplying Ukraine with Patriot system, Romanian PM says

Romania is considering equipping Ukraine with advanced Patriot defense systems to counter Russian attacks. However, President Klaus Iohannis clarified that such a decision would require an approval from an autonomous administrative authority responsible for coordinating national defense and...

kyivindependent.com

Romania is considering equipping Ukraine with advanced Patriot defense systems to counter Russian attacks. However, President Klaus Iohannis clarified that such a decision would require an approval from an autonomous administrative authority responsible for coordinating national defense and security activities, the Supreme Council of National Defense (SCND).

In Crimea, Ukraine is beating Russia

The peninsula is becoming a death trap for the Kremlin’s forces

www.economist.com

A D-Day-style amphibious assault to liberate Crimea remains inconceivable. But, says Sir Lawrence Freedman, a British strategist, that is the wrong way to look at it. Crimea is a weak point for Russia. It has too much there to defend, and it is the best way for Ukraine to put real pressure on Mr Putin in order to extract concessions in the future. Nico Lange, a former adviser to the German defence ministry, agrees: “Ukraine’s campaign is a mixture of a military and political strategy. Politically, it is Russia’s most vital asset; but it is also very vulnerable.” What Ukraine is attempting to do is to make Crimea a liability rather than an asset for Mr Putin. The aim is to isolate it and in doing so to push Russian air and sea forces away from southern Ukraine and strangle it as a logistics hub.

Ukraine has already demonstrated the ability of British- and French-supplied Storm Shadow and SCALP cruise missiles, and its own cleverly designed homemade maritime drones, to hit Russian warships, particularly the big Ropucha landing vessels used as military transports, most of which have been destroyed. Ukrainian drones and missiles may have taken out of action as much as half of the previously formidable Black Sea Fleet. Almost all of what remains has been forced to relocate from Sevastopol to the port of Novorossiysk, over 300km away on the Russian mainland. Novorossiysk itself came under attack from both marine and aerial drones on May 17th. A railway station and a power-generation plant as well as the naval base were hit.
But now Ukraine is using a deadly combination of ATACMS and increasingly sophisticated drones to systematically degrade Russian air defences in Crimea, hit air-bases from which Russian interceptors fly and strike critical logistics and economic targets. Sir Lawrence says that the focus on crippling Russia’s air-defence network may also be part of the preparation for the imminent arrival of the first batches of f-16 fighter jets from Europe.

Significantly, Russia’s much-vaunted and very expensive S-400 air-defence system has been found wanting. Mr Lange says the Ukrainians are using decoy drones to make the Russians light up their radars and reveal their positions. The targeting data is immediately fed to the ATACMS launch crews. Within six minutes the missiles, virtually undetectable because of their speed and low radar cross-section, are hitting their targets. General Hodges notes that the S-400s are also vulnerable to sabotage by Ukrainian special forces operating inside Crimea. Each battery costs about $200m, and they are not easily replaceable.

An early test of the wider strategic success of Ukraine’s campaign in Crimea could come this summer when Russian holidaymakers normally flock across the Kerch Bridge to resorts on the peninsula. If they decide otherwise, says Ben Barry of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a think-tank, it will be a bad omen for Mr Putin. Crimea is heavily dependent on the tourist industry, and bookings last year were down by nearly a half. “Crimea”, he says, “has been turned from being a prestige project to a drain on Russian resources.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

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Long-delayed U.S. permission to use HIMARS GMLRS to strike across the Russian border starts to bring results. Here is footage of an S-300/S-400 missile system that Russia also uses in surface-to-surface mode to pummel Kharkiv. Location said to be in Belgorod region.

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Belgorod Oblast, Russia, Ukrainian forces successfully hit a Russian S-300/400 battery in a HIMARS strike, destroying at least two TELs and a command post.

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Footage from a Ukrainian attack with FPV drones on a Russian supply column on the road near Sudzha in Kursk Oblast of Russia, which resulted in destruction of a number of vehicles.

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Ukraine's power grid is in critical condition, with 70% lost due to Russian strikes

$12.5B in damages caused daily blackouts and energy price hike for Ukrainians. Energy Support Fund only received $434M in aid, falling far short of what's needed

UK defence chief doubts Russia wants war with NATO as he marks D-Day anniversary

"By the end of June, Russia will have lost 500,000 people - killed and wounded. We are already past 800 days for a war that Putin anticipated to be three days long. This is tough for Ukraine, but we have to maintain our support."

Admiral Radakin was speaking before the US and other allies publicly backed Ukraine using western weapons to strike military targets inside Russia - a move that has escalated tensions even further between the West and Moscow.

However, he sounded very confident that the Kremlin was not looking for direct confrontation with members of the NATO alliance.

"Putin does not want a war with NATO. Putin does not want a nuclear war. And we have enormous overmatch because of the strength of NATO."

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine can strike Russian targets with Dutch F-16s

The Dutch position contrasts with Belgian policy, under which donated F-16s cannot be used by Kyiv to hit targets inside Russia.

www.politico.eu

Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren has reassured Kyiv that the 24 F-16 fighter jets that the Netherlands intends to donate to Ukraine may be used to strike targets inside Russia.

In an interview with POLITICO at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, Ollongren said the Netherlands would not impose a limitation as was the case with Belgium, where Prime Minister Alexander De Croo has warned Kyiv not to fly the F-16s it gets from his country in Russian airspace.

“There is not” a Belgian-style restriction, Ollongren said. “We are applying the same principle that we have applied to every other delivery of capabilities, which is once we hand it over to Ukraine, it’s theirs to use," she said.

"We only ask them to comply to international law and the right to self-defense as stated in the U.N. Charter, which means they use it to target the military goals they need to target in their self-defense,” Ollongren said.

Russia Aims to Make Life Unlivable in Ukraine’s Second City

When Russian forces overran a stretch of Ukraine’s northeastern border last month, Vitalina Honcharova packed her bags and prepared to flee this city with her family once more.

Three weeks on, Ukrainian forces have halted Russia’s advance north of Kharkiv, and Honcharova is staying put. But as Russia pounds the city with bombs and missiles, her bags remain ready by the door.

“We are living with our suitcases packed,” the 48-year-old said while at the park with her son during a rare break in the air-raid alert that now sounds for as much as 16 hours a day.

Although the danger of a rapid advance on the city has receded, Russia has Kharkiv back in its sights. Ukrainian and Western officials say Moscow appears to be planning a grinding war of attrition to empty it of its population by making life there untenable.

The Kremlin has long coveted Kharkiv, which was once the capital of Soviet Ukraine. Moscow tried to foment a revolt in the predominantly Russian-speaking city in 2014 and reached its outskirts in 2022, in the early days of its full-blown invasion, before being pushed back by Ukrainian forces. Now, with the war in its third year, Russia is targeting Kharkiv’s energy infrastructure and battering the city with missiles and guided bombs while trying to push its artillery back in range.

“Of course, Putin still wants Kharkiv,” Oleh Synehubov, the head of the military administration for the region—which is also called Kharkiv—said of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Synehubov noted that Russia has deployed only a fraction of the troops needed to storm the city, which he estimated could require up to half a million soldiers.
But Russia has girded for a long war. At worst, the Kremlin could replicate the strategy it used against Aleppo, Syria, in 2016, when the Russian air force—supporting the Syrian government in its civil war—destroyed electricity and water supplies and bombed hospitals and schools, said the secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, Oleksandr Lytvynenko. The population of Aleppo fell to one-third of its prewar levels before the Assad regime retook the city from opposition forces.

“They simply forced the people out. This is what they want to practice around Kharkiv,” Lytvynenko said in an interview.

In the past week alone, Russian missiles and guided bombs have targeted a printing house and a home-improvement store, killing more than 25 people. City authorities say there is no need to evacuate, but have advised residents not to ignore air-raid alerts, and to avoid public places. Billboards along the city’s freshly swept streets proclaim Kharkiv unbreakable.

Russia’s strategy of taking cities could be evolving as the war progresses, Lytvynenko said, noting that it had razed the southern port city of Mariupol in the early weeks of the war in part because of a miscalculation over how difficult it would be to seize it.

Russian military planners had envisaged a relatively lightly armed maneuverable army rapidly advancing into Ukraine and demoralizing and destroying Ukrainian resistance. After encountering fierce opposition, the Russian army reverted to timeworn habits of Soviet military planners, using massed artillery and armor to progress, he said.

 

[beer 30]

New production facilities are going up in Texas which is supposed to get them up to around 60K

Inaugurated yesterday, 8 months ago was an empty field.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/us-army-opens-new-155mm-artillery-munitions-plant-texas-2024-05-29/

War is great for the economy and now that we've seemingly accepted perpetual war (whether direct or indirect) I expect to see more of this.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

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Russia is testing a modernized version of the GShG-7.62 minigun on ships to combat naval drones. It could also be adapted to vehicles to counter UAVs.

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Russian forces continue to advance towards Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast over the past week.

Italy likely to send second air defence system to Ukraine, source says

Italy will likely send a second SAMP/T air defence system to Ukraine, a source close to the matter told Reuters on Monday, responding to Kyiv's demands for greater help to fend off Russian missile attacks.
The system, also known as MAMBA, is a Franco-Italian battery that can track dozens of targets and intercept 10 at once. It is the only European-made system that can intercept ballistic missiles.

The source, who declined to be named, confirmed newspaper reports that Italy was preparing to send a SAMP/T system which is deployed in Kuwait, but is soon due to return to Italy.
However, he did not give a timeframe for any delivery.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Italy has approved eight support packages to the government of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. The air defence system is likely to be part of a ninth package that might be approved shortly, the source added.

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Frontelligence Insight is documenting significant movements of enemy reserves, involving hundreds of military vehicles of various types. This likely indicates that the Russians are preparing for another serious push. Russian offensive is unlikely to conclude soon

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Poland has arrested 18 people accused of planning sabotage in favour of Russia and Belarus since December

On 3 June, Polish Interior Minister Tomasz Siemoniak said that since December, the country has arrested 18 people accused of conducting hostile activities or planning sabotage actions on behalf of Russia and Belarus, including assassination of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

www.pravda.com.ua

On 3 June, Polish Interior Minister Tomasz Siemoniak said that since December, the country has arrested 18 people accused of conducting hostile activities or planning sabotage actions on behalf of Russia and Belarus, including assassination of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

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An interview conducted by @esutde with Arne Nolte, Head of Strategic Marketing Ground Based Air Defence at Diehl Defence, brought some interesting details to light. A short summary

Initial talks on the delivery of IRIS-T SLMs to Ukraine were already underway in March 2022 → one month after the start of the Russian full-scale invasion

Confirmation that “only” IRIS-T SLS launchers that are integrated into the IRIS-T SLM systems were and will be delivered (the German government had recently changed the designation from launchers to systems in the official list which caused confusion)

IRIS-T SLS (uses cheaper and less powerful IRIS-T missiles) has also proved successful against Russian threats (unfortunately no details given)

The training of Ukrainian soldiers on IRIS-T SLM takes around ten weeks, slightly longer than the training of Ukrainian soldiers on the Patriot air defence system.

We tracked secret Russian missile launchers in Ukraine using public satellite data - Euromaidan Press

Researchers use public satellites to pinpoint radar signatures of Russian S-300 air defense batteries, exposing challenges created by OSINT for armies

euromaidanpress.com

The S-300 surface-to-air missile launcher is designed to avoid detection. Their locations are closely guarded secrets. However, using publicly available satellite images, we have detected telltale signs of the operation of these weapons that give away their location.

Russian advance on Kharkiv has ‘slowed a bit,’ US defense chief says

The U.S. defense secretary cited firmer Ukrainian defenses and a policy shift on firing American weapons into Russia as reasons.

www.defensenews.com

Just weeks after Russian forces broke through the front lines near Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, the offensive has started to steady, according to U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.

“That activity continues, but it’s slowed a bit,” he said.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

West grapples with response to Russian sabotage attempts

Western governments are struggling to respond to what they say is a growing Russian campaign of sabotage attempts including arson at military bases and civilian infrastructure across Europe.

The goal of these “grey zone” attacks, which security officials said were often led by Russian GRU military intelligence, is to promote disunity among Ukraine’s allies, disrupt military supplies to Kyiv and test western resolve.

“Russia is trying to send a message that it is omnipotent and can disturb our societies . . . to instigate fear and to find ways to make our lives more miserable,” Latvia’s President Edgars Rinkēvičs told the Financial Times. “It is also testing our response, because if we don’t respond these attacks are going to increase.”

He said Nato allies were “trying to figure out” how to respond short of invoking the military alliance’s mutual defence clause known as Article 5. “We are not going to fire missiles at Russia because of a rather small-scale incident,” he added.

The unresolved question is how. Russia, said one western defence adviser, has a highly developed lexicon for hybrid warfare and applies it systematically across all potential weapons, be that “information, psychological operations or things that go bang”. The west, by contrast, was so behind it even “lacks a vocabulary of what hybrid war means”.

Moscow “is also constantly observing our reactions, and testing to see which of their actions works — before following up with more”, the adviser added.

One problem is the incidents often appear to be random and against targets unrelated to Ukraine — such as a fire that broke out in an Ikea store in Lithuania last month which Donald Tusk, Poland’s prime minister, suggested could have been the work of foreign saboteurs.

Another problem in formulating an appropriate response is that the incidents are often carried out by proxies, making it harder to attribute them directly to Russia. The Kremlin has consistently dismissed European governments’ accusations of hybrid warfare.

One western counter-intelligence officer said Moscow’s increased used of proxies flowed from Europe’s recent mass expulsion of hundreds of Russian diplomats and spies. Many alternative operatives are now drawn from criminal gangs, the officer said, which was a sign the west had succeeded in limiting Moscow’s options, although this also brought new risks.

“There is a greater chance of collateral damage and casualties as the proxies are not skilled in tradecraft, such as explosives,” the officer said.

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The Avdiivka-Pokrovsk sector has remained the probable main effort of Russian forces over the last 72 hours, with a high level of operational activity. Russian forces made minor gains, in the northern part of this sector toward the villages of Sokol and Yevhenivka. On a parallel axis approximately 3km further south Russian forces are likely approaching the outskirts of the village of Novoselivka Persha. Further south Russian forces have made no significant gains despite heavy attacks against Ukrainian positions west of the village of Netailove, astride the E50 highway.

Russian attacks against the village of Nevelske have reportedly been repelled and the village likely remains in Ukrainian hands. Over the next week this sector is likely to remain an area of significant operational focus as Russian forces attempt to maintain operational tempo in the face of heavy losses.

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"The scale [of Russia's destruction in Ukraine] is hard to comprehend. More buildings have been destroyed in Ukraine than if every building in Manhattan were to be leveled four times over." Impressive @nytimes data story.

Video: https://x.com/Archer83Able/status/1797828951601295508

Russian drone operators from the 7th Guards Mountain Air Assault Division using quadcopters to deliver water to the soldiers on the frontline.

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Russian state media reports that Tula State University will work on a project involving AI for analyzing drones’ radio signals for counter-UAV applications

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Very rare and almost extinct these days Russian T-80U. Damaged and abandoned on the Kharkiv front, Vovchansk direction. ~24 May 2024.

Almost the entire T-80U population was destroyed back in 2022. In 2024, this is only the second recorded loss, the last one was in January. In 2023, only 2 losses of T-80U were recorded.

 

[Chadstroma]

"The scale [of Russia's destruction in Ukraine] is hard to comprehend. More buildings have been destroyed in Ukraine than if every building in Manhattan were to be leveled four times over." Impressive @nytimes data story.

And this is one area that points out how Russia losses whether they win or lose in Ukraine. If they lose, they have spent their entire economy into a failed military expansion. (kind of tracks with Russian history). If they win, they take over a country that has tremendous damage and the rebuilding effort will be massive- which they will not be able to afford due to the cost of winning to begin with. (not to mention you can bet there would be an immediate and persistent insurgency following)

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine Strikes Into Russia With Western Weapons, Official Says

The official said Ukraine had destroyed missile launchers in the Russian region of Belgorod using an American-made rocket system.

www.nytimes.com

Just days after the Biden administration granted permission for Ukraine to fire American weapons into Russia, Kyiv took advantage of its new latitude, striking a military facility over the border using a U.S.-made artillery system, according to a member of Ukraine’s Parliament.
Yehor Chernev, the deputy chairman of the Ukrainian Parliament’s committee on national security, defense and intelligence, said on Tuesday that Ukrainian forces had destroyed Russian missile launchers with a strike in the Belgorod region, about 20 miles into Russia. Ukraine’s forces used a High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, he said.
It was the first time a Ukrainian official has acknowledged publicly that Ukraine had used American weapons to fire into Russia since President Biden lifted the ban on such strikes. For months, the ban had stood as a red line the Biden administration would not cross out of concern about increasing tensions with a nuclear-armed nation.

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An interesting detail in @United24media's story from the zero line around Lyptsi that came out a few days ago: the UA soldiers purportedly just across from Russian forces are manning fortified positions reinforced with concrete structures. A little thread 1/
We don't know exactly where this is, but the northern outskirts of Lyptsi are almost exactly 10 kilometers away from the state border. This corresponds to the beginning of the 10-30km zone where fortifications are built not by military engineers, but by civilian companies. 2/
The position looks a lot like one of the "platoon strong points," the fortified positions which make up this third line of defense, planned by the military and built by civilians. Here you can see the concrete set deep in the earth, with more sandbags and anti-drone slats. 3/
This brings us to the crux of the fortifications problem: although Ukraine should still be doing a lot more digging and mining there, it's pretty much impossible to build concrete fortifications any than this. Even 10km is a stretch with everything in view of enemy drones. 4/
This results in a painful dilemma: you don't want to give up territory, for many reasons, but you could be fighting a lot more efficiently, saving a lot more of your infantry at a higher cost to the enemy, if you fall back and fight out of concrete rather than mud. 5/
Speaking at a press conference a week into the Kharkiv offensive, regional governor Oleg Syniehubov said that 40 of these platoon strong points had already been manned by Ukrainian soldiers. 6/
It's always worth remembering that given Ukraine's position of strategic defence over 2024, with little to no chance of mustering forces for a major offensive, whether this war flows in favour of UA or RU over the year will depend on how efficiently UA can defend. 7/
Russia will always take higher losses, but the calculation is that the attrition equation in current circumstances to degrade and overwhelm UA's capacity to defend more than RU's relative capacity to attack. UA's job is to turn that the other way round. 8/
Which is why, depending on the circumstances and the area, it might not always be the worst thing to see territorial losses of up to 10km from where the lines were at the start of 2024. What will be a much bigger worry is if RU ends up able to pass those lines with ease. 9/
If it does, it will be due to a combination of shortcomings in the quality of the civilian-built fortifications and a worsening manpower situation. Will be looking deeper into the fortification situation soon. end

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Ivan Gavrilyuk, Ukraine's first deputy minister of defense, said last week that Russia currently has a 5:1 advantage in artillery ammunition.

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A Ranger Corps is being created within the Special Operations Forces of Ukraine, according to MilitaryLand reporting.

This new formation is set to have four special purpose regiments under its command.

Norway Army Chief Sees Short Window to Boost NATO’s Defenses

Norway’s chief of defense said the NATO alliance has a window of two to three years to prepare before Russia has rebuilt the ability to carry out a conventional attack.
It’s a shorter time frame than some western officials have estimated as members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization discuss Russia’s ramp-up of military capacity and its ability to reconstitute forces while waging a full-scale war against Ukraine.
“At one point someone said it’ll take 10 years but I think we’re back to less than 10 years because of the industrial base that is now running in Russia,” General Eirik Kristoffersen, 55, said in an interview in Oslo on Monday.
“It will take some time, which gives us a window now for the next two to three years to rebuild our forces, to rebuild our stocks at the same times as we are supporting Ukraine,” Kristoffersen said, while pointing out Russian President Vladimir Putin’s public comments that he isn’t interested in a war with NATO.
Norway, a NATO member since 1949, hasn’t seen a significant change in Russia’s “posture” on its border over the last year, including the neighbor’s nuclear forces and its Northern Fleet, while Russia’s land forces on the Kola Peninsula are “decimated” after taking heavy losses in Ukraine, Kristoffersen said.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine frustrated with US over F-16 pilot training

Ukrainian officials are pressing the U.S. and other countries to ramp up their F-16 pilot training, saying the current pipeline isn’t producing enough aviators to fly the jets that will be soon donated to Kyiv.

Ukraine says it has 30 pilots who are eligible to start training in the U.S. immediately. Yet the Biden administration has told Kyiv it lacks the school seats in its Arizona-based program to accept more than 12 pilot trainees at a time, according to three people with direct knowledge of the request. Two other facilities in Denmark and Romania have a similar issue with available training spots.

In a series of meetings and calls over the last several weeks, Ukraine has officially requested the U.S. train the additional pilots at Morris Air National Guard base in Tucson, Arizona. Lawmakers on Capitol Hill, including Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) and Rep. Mike Turner (R-Ohio), the leaders of the House Intelligence Committee, have also pressed the administration to approve the additional training. The pair, along with several other lawmakers, wrote the Pentagon a letter last month asking the administration to prioritize the issue.

But the U.S. has told the Ukrainian military that in addition to limited space, other countries are in line for F-16 training at the base and that it cannot break its commitments to those nations.

The Air Force also trains F-16 pilots at Luke Air Force Base, Arizona, and Joint Base San Antonio, Texas, but those programs also have limited spaces for international students. Those spots are typically reserved well in advance for pilots from other countries that operate the F-16.
Another eight Ukrainian pilots are being trained in Denmark, according to a former DOD official involved in the program. But that facility is set to close next year and will no longer participate in the training, as Denmark’s Air Force transitions to the stealthy F-35.

Meanwhile, F-16-maker Lockheed Martin and its subcontractor, Draken, are also preparing to train pilots at a facility in Romania, but that program is expensive and also will have limited spots, according to the former official and a person familiar with the program. A Lockheed spokesperson referred questions about the Romania facility to the governments of the U.S., Romania and the Netherlands.

A total of 20 Ukrainian F-16 pilots are expected to graduate by the end of this year — half of the 40 needed to operate a full squadron of 20 jets, according to the former DOD official. Eight new pilots are scheduled to begin training in Romania, and eight more will soon arrive in Tucson, the former official said. The facility in Denmark will not accept any additional pilots.

Among the training facilities, only four slots will be open for Ukrainian pilots through the remainder of the year, according to the person familiar.

While the jets “will give the Ukrainians an increment of capability that they don’t have right now … it’s not going to be a dramatic game-changer as far as I’m concerned for their total military capabilities,” Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall said last year.

In the Kharkiv area, for example, one U.S. official said Ukraine will not be able to fly the jets to the border with Russia or into Russian territory, because Moscow’s air defense systems will easily spot them and shoot them down.

But officials involved in the program said the aircraft will still provide a significant advantage for Kyiv, eventually. When Ukraine initially gets its F-16s and pilots, they will likely be able to fly only limited missions, for example, against drones and cruise missiles on the front lines, the former DOD official said. Once they get a full squadron worth of aircraft and pilots, it’s “completely realistic” to fly the F-16s to the border and shoot into Russia given the jet’s radar, targeting system and missiles — all of which are superior to Ukraine’s Soviet-era fleet.

But at this rate, Ukraine won’t have a full squadron of trained pilots until the end of 2025, the former official said.

Another issue is the weapons the planes will be carrying.

Ukrainians plan to use the jets to knock down Russian cruise and ballistic missiles fired toward Ukrainian infrastructure and civilian targets.

Those missions require precise air-to-air missiles that belong to the U.S. and dozens of NATO allies. Many of those countries are hesitant to part with their expensive weapons, one NATO official said.

The production capacity for the AIM-120 advanced medium-range air-to-air missile, made by RTX, has increased from around 500-800 per year to over 1,000, company officials said last year, in order to keep with demand. Ukraine has already used an older version of the missile with the ground-based National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System to hit Russian missiles.

But the worry from capitals is that the new requests from Kyiv could begin to put a strain on countries’ stocks, and talks among alliance members are looking at who might be able to part with their missiles, and how many, and when, the official said.

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Russia currently has approx. 550,000 troops deployed in Ukraine and near its borders, the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine told http://liga.net.

That includes around 520,000 military personnel and 32,000 personnel from the National Guard, the FSB and other Russian law enforcement agencies that perform police functions.

Втричі більше, ніж у лютому 2022-го. Як армія Росії адаптується до війни і що це означає

Окупаційне угруповання в Україні стає більшим та ефективнішим. Але воно має слабкі місця, які Сили оборони можуть використати собі на користь

liga.net

 

[Brunell4MVP]

"The scale [of Russia's destruction in Ukraine] is hard to comprehend. More buildings have been destroyed in Ukraine than if every building in Manhattan were to be leveled four times over." Impressive @nytimes data story.

And this is one area that points out how Russia losses whether they win or lose in Ukraine. If they lose, they have spent their entire economy into a failed military expansion. (kind of tracks with Russian history). If they win, they take over a country that has tremendous damage and the rebuilding effort will be massive- which they will not be able to afford due to the cost of winning to begin with. (not to mention you can bet there would be an immediate and persistent insurgency following)

Since the begining of Tsardom in Russian (1547) , Russian has been involved in over 100 wars. They have not really gained in important land in those wars, nor have they lost much. It's a cycle that Putin can't come to grips with. Win a war, gain a broken land that will continuously revolt. Russia wastes a lot of time trying to expand though it's gotten them nowhere. They'd be better off in a cheaper defensive military posture and spending the money and resources elsewhere. They have enormous natural resources and a very difficult territory to attack. Just hang back and play it cool and in the long run they would come out more ahead.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Germany must be ready for war by 2029, defense minister warns

“We must not believe that Putin will stop at Ukraine’s borders,” Boris Pistorius says.

www.politico.eu

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has said his country must prepare for war because of increasing Russian threats.

“We must be ready for war by 2029,” news magazine Der Spiegel quoted Pistorius as saying in the German parliament on Wednesday.

His comments come amid heightened fears among European countries, especially those in Eastern Europe, about potential Russian aggression extending beyond Ukraine.

"We must not believe that Putin will stop at Ukraine’s borders when he gets that far,” Pistorius said.

Some video here: https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1798511326178025561

Rostov Oblast, Ukrainian drones successfully hit the Russian Novoshakhtinsk refinery tonight, causing a severe blaze to break out

Operations have been shuttered at the plant and a firefighting train has been deployed.

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Ukrainian SSO SOF operator with a US supplied HMMWV and suppressed Malyuk rifle, on a night operation in Kharkiv Oblast.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

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Last night, Ukraine's HUR MO carried out an attack with unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) targeting a Russian Project 498 Protey harbor tug in the area of Ozero Panske near Chernomorske in the Crimea.

The vessel was hit at least two times, as seen in the video.

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Footage from an attempted Russian strike with ZALA Lancet loitering munition targeting a Ukrainian Sukhoi Su-25 attack aircraft (or its decoy) at the Dolgintsevo Air Base near Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast of Ukraine (70km from the frontline).

The strike wasn't much successful as Lancet landed just near the plane, likely causing little to none damage.

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"According to Khotabych, Russian forces had, at one point, taken over two thirds of Vovchansk’s urban area, but had now been pushed back across the Vovcha River into the northern suburbs of the town."

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On 29 May 2024 Ukrainian missile strikes damaged two Russian roll-on roll-off (RO-RO) rail ferries on the Crimean side of the Kerch Strait crossing, rendering them non-operational. These rail ferries almost certainly provided the primary means of rail transportation for Russian fuel and ammunition train loads to Crimea due to the stringent security measures employed on the Kerch Bridge. Russia also operates vehicle RO-RO ferries to support the movement of heavy loads across the Strait, which have resumed operations post-strike.

The degraded rail crossing capacity almost certainly caused significant temporary disruption to Russian military logistics operations and potentially, Crimea’s fuel supply. Russia will almost certainly be forced to replace the rail ferry service as soon as possible, likely impacting its wider maritime logistics operations, or risk relaxing its procedures by using the rail bridge to transit fuel and explosive stores.

ERR in Ukraine: Frontline troops find west is delaying with its aid

The collective west is unduly holding up on the provision of aid to Ukraine, many of that country's soldiers say, while artillery personnel ERR recently spoke at the front said they lost control of the key city of Avdiivka, in February this year, directly as a result of a shortage of shells.

news.err.ee

The collective west is unduly holding up on the provision of aid to Ukraine, many of that country's soldiers say, while artillery personnel ERR recently spoke at the front said they lost control of the key city of Avdiivka, in February this year, directly as a result of a shortage of shells.

The German-made and supplied Panzerhaubitze 2000 (pictured) self-propelled artillery systems used by Ukrainian forces can rack up up to 10 rounds per minute, but sourcing shells to meet rates of those kinds has become a significant issue.

One Ukrainian soldier, who gave his name as "Tourist," told ERR: "Last year, we fired 10 shells every two hours."

"There was much more ammunition back then. Up to 200 shells were sent to us in the one night. But that is no longer the case," "Tourist" went on.

These artillerymen were recently fighting near Avdiivka, which Ukrainian forces ultimately had to relinquish early on this year, following the Russian onslaught which started in October 2023.

"Tourist" said: "In Avdiivka, for instance, we had no shells left whatsoever. Ammunition is now starting to arrive in a trickle. Not to the volume we need, but it is something."

Conversely, Russian forces, do not seem to be facing such shortages.

"Bison" told ERR: "They have the significant advantage here. It seems they have unlimited ammunition. They are constantly firing at us, and something is always dropping from the sky."

"In Avdiivka, they were firing on us continuously for five days, without even a five-minute break. That was tough. And now they are doing the same in Chasiv Yar,"another fighter, "Rusty," added.

Russia has taken out over half of Ukraine power generation

Country’s electricity capacity has dropped below 20GW, with Russian attacks causing worst blackouts since start of war

www.ft.com

Russia has knocked out or captured more than half of Ukraine’s power generation, causing the worst rolling blackouts since the start of its full-scale invasion in 2022.
Moscow’s missile and drone attacks in recent months have homed in on Ukrainian power plants, forcing energy companies to impose nationwide shutdowns while scrambling to repair the damage and find alternative supplies.
Before Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Ukraine’s domestic energy production was about 55 gigawatts of electricity, among the largest in Europe. That power generation capacity has currently dropped below 20GW, due to bombardments or to Russian occupation taking those plants offline, according to Ukrainian officials.
Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal told government meeting on Thursday that the consequences of Russian attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector are “long-term”, which means that saving power “will be part of our daily life in the years to come”.
“Our goal is to save at all levels: from large enterprises to individual houses and apartments,” he said.
A Russian attack on Saturday struck energy facilities in five regions, causing significant damage, said Kyiv energy minister German Galushchenko.
The latest strikes have also targeted pumping facilities for underground natural gas storage being used by EU customers. Though these pumps can be easily replaced, the attacks do highlight concerns about security of supply come winter — both for domestic use and exports to the bloc.
The EU’s ambassador in Kyiv, Katarina Mathernova, said that since March, “Russia has destroyed [a] whooping 9.2GW of energy generation” in Ukraine. She added that she was meeting officials to establish what their “urgent energy equipment needs” were in order to “help alleviate the impact of continuous Russian missile attacks on energy infrastructure”.

Russia’s first aerial bombardment campaign in the winter of 2022-23 targeted the country’s electrical distribution grid — which could be repaired relatively easily, according to officials and experts. But the latest barrages are zeroing in on thermal and hydroelectric power plants which will be much harder and more expensive to fix, rebuild or replace, they said.

One Ukrainian government official described Saturday’s assault as “devastating” while another said it was likely to mean that by winter residents would be spending a vast majority of their day without electricity.
Both officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak to the press. One of the officials said 1.2GW of power generation was lost in Saturday’s bombardment alone, while infrastructure critical for transporting gas from underground storage facilities in western Ukraine was badly damaged.
Asked what the damage would mean for the months ahead, one of the officials put it bluntly: “We should prepare for life in the cold and the dark.”
“This is our new normal,” the second official said, gesturing outside a window to the darkness that had descended on Kyiv during a recent emergency power shutdown.

French terror inquiry after Ukrainian-Russian man detonates explosive materials in hotel

Man, 26, questioned under suspicion of participating in terrorist conspiracy after explosion in hotel north of Paris

www.theguardian.com

French anti-terror prosecutors have launched an investigation after a Ukrainian-Russian man detonated explosive materials in a hotel room north of Paris.

A source at the French anti-terrorism prosecutors office (PNAT) said that on Monday night the 26-year-old man was given medical treatment by fire officers in a hotel in the Val-d’Oise, north of Paris, for “significant burns after an explosion”.

An initial search of his hotel room led to the discovery of “products and materials intended for the manufacture of explosive devices”, the source said. The man, of Ukrainian and Russian nationality, was still being questioned by police on Wednesday night.

The source confirmed that the PNAT, working with France’s domestic spy agency, had opened an investigation into the man, who was suspected of participating in a terrorist conspiracy and bomb plot.

It is not clear at this stage if the man is suspected of acting alone or in a group.

The suspected is reportedly from the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, part of which has been occupied by pro-Russian and Russian forces since 2014.

Another source, who asked not to be named, told the AFP news agency that he appeared to have a “pro-Russian attitude” after fighting “for two years for the Russian army”.

 

[Chadstroma]

France to Provide Mirage Jets and Training to Bolster Ukraine's Air Defenses​

Story by Isaac Jones

France has announced an expansion of its military support to Ukraine by providing Mirage 2000-5 jets and initiating a pilot training program, as confirmed by French President Emmanuel Macron. Amidst the ongoing conflict, this move represents a significant enhancement of Ukraine’s defensive capabilities.

“We’ll be launching a new cooperation program and announcing the transfer of Mirage 2000-5s — French fighter jets that will enable Ukraine to protect its soil and airspace,” stated Macron during commemorations of the D-Day landings. This comes as part of a broader initiative similar to the coalition of several European countries that have agreed to supply Ukraine with F-16 fighters.

Although the exact number of jets to be provided remains undisclosed, the focus on training Ukrainian pilots is evident, with the French President noting that the training program is set to begin this summer.

“The key factor is pilot training time… so that by the end of the year they’ll be able to fly these aircraft,” Macron explained. Ukrainian pilots will be trained in France, reinforcing the strategic partnership between the two nations.

As part of the support package, France will also propose to train a brigade of 4,500 Ukrainian soldiers, a move Macron asserts is not an escalation factor but a necessary response to assist Ukraine in defending itself. He contends that training on Ukrainian soil is not aggressive towards Russia and that the use of French arms, even to retaliate against Russian offensives originating from Russian territory, is justified by the principle of self-defense.

In addition to the aircraft, discussions are ongoing between Ukraine and French defense firms for further military collaboration. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is set to meet with French Armed Forces Minister Sebastien Lecornu and attend the signing of a letter of intent to establish a unit in Ukraine, signaling deepening military ties.

Questions about the integration of the Mirage 2000-5 into Ukraine’s Air Force remain, considering the need for pilot and crew training, logistical adjustments, and the integration into existing command and control systems. Nevertheless, the Mirage 2000-5’s modern avionics, sensors, and compatibility with a variety of armaments is poised to provide a qualitative boost to Ukraine’s defense posture.

The more that Ukraine can get the better but after the F-16's are delivered and the Ukrainian air force can sustain the integration of a new aircraft, I would think the Gripen's would be next choice for delivery before the Mirage's as the Gripen is a more capable plane. However, they put the Gripen on the back burner for now to focus on the F-16's which 85 (I believe) have been earmarked to delivery. They don't have that many pilots qualified for the F-16 though and assuming they get many more pilots through training, the potential for many more F-16's to be transferred is high as there is a large availability of them with many operators transitioning to the F-35's in the NATO alliance.

 

[Chadstroma]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/06/06/russia-economy-ukraine-war-gazprom-putin/

Further evidence — not that any was needed — of the catastrophic idiocy of Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine is found in an internal study commissioned by Gazprom, a state-controlled energy firm and the largest company in Russia. As revealed by the Financial Times, the analysis concluded that the loss of European customers for Russian natural gas in response to Putin’s aggression cannot be made up by exports elsewhere for at least a decade.

Russia is not a country that can afford to destroy profitable businesses. Its entire economy is smaller than that of Texas. Yet that’s what Putin has done. Proof of the damage to Gazprom came last month, when the state-controlled company reported its first annual loss of the 21st century — the first of many to come.

The pause is also bad for the security of the United States and its allies. By invading a neighbor and waging a war of unremitting criminality, Russia has shown itself to be an insufferable threat to Western safety and humane values. Don’t take it from me. Take it from the people who know Russia best: its neighbors.
Poland’s spending on defense rose about 70 percent last year. Sweden, after going it alone for nearly 75 years, joined NATO in March (following Finland) and has hiked its defense budget by just above 30 percent. Lithuania boosted defense spending by nearly 30 percent. And so on. Since Putin’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, Europe as a whole has increased spending on defense every year.
Those countries don’t want to resume their dependence on Russia when the war in Ukraine finally ends. They want alternatives to Russian gas, and for the peace of the world, the United States should give them one.

 

[Chadstroma]

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/06/06/south-africa-ukraine-war-reckoning-00161508

Jolobe credits Russia’s diplomacy. “They were much smarter in terms of explaining … what their reasoning was,” he said. “I’m not sure that the Ukrainians, or even the Americans, worked their Global South networks to the same rigor as the Russians.”Russian diplomats also asked for less. They didn’t ask for African countries to enact sanctions or take strong moral stances — for Russia, neutrality was enough. Russia’s messaging on the continent has focused on its Cold War-era connections with Africa — and the continent has seemed to appreciate that Russia doesn’t come with any demands for liberalization or democratization.

“The West is a lot more [like], ‘This is our position and accept it,’ whereas the Russians were a lot more explaining, as in, ‘This is where things are, and we don’t want you to take sides, but this is why we’re doing what we’re doing,’” Jolobe said.

 

[Chadstroma]

In April, Ukrainian Troops Staged A Three-Night Raid To Steal A Special Russian Tank. Now The Tank Fights For Ukraine.

The T-72B3M boasted a heap of anti-drone radio jammers.

www.forbes.com

 

[Chadstroma]

Major internet provider in Moscow and region could go bankrupt after cyber attack by Ukraine​

Story by Kateryna Shkarlat

One of the largest internet providers in Moscow and the region Rialcom may go bankrupt due to a hacker attack by Ukrainian intelligence, according to representatives of the hacker group BO Team.

It is reported that at the beginning of the week, the Ukrainian cyber group BO Team, in collaboration with the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, carried out a large-scale DoS attack on the servers of Russian state institutions and large companies that sponsor Russian aggression.

In particular, the attack involved blocking access to the electronic services of the State Services website and several ministries, including the Ministry of Defense, Finance, Internal Affairs, Justice, Industry, and Energy of Russia. Additionally, the website and services of the Federal Tax Service of Russia were blocked.

The hackers report that some consequences of the Ukrainian cyber attack can never be fixed by the opposing side. This specifically affects one of the largest internet providers in Moscow and the Moscow region - the company Rialcom.

Consequences of the attack on the provider

According to a statement from the cyber group BO Team, which claimed responsibility for the cyber attack, 10,200 of the provider's switches were disabled, customer databases were destroyed, and the company's website was taken offline.

As a result, internet and communication services were halted for several days for 3,452 legal entities and tens of thousands of individuals. Customers' personal accounts and payment services were only restored on June 3-4. Many Rialcom clients are major representatives of private business and the public sector.

Additionally, the personal data of users, including confidential information such as logins, passwords, and browsing histories, were leaked online. There have also been recorded instances of certain data being leaked to the FSB (Federal Service (of) Safety, the principal security agency of Russia).

Extent of the damages

Customers of the company are complaining about mass spam distribution, while one of the Rialcom executives, Aleksandr Belov, is trying to assure service users of the inviolability of the customer database.

According to available information, Rialcom's total losses have exceeded 178 million rubles (almost 2 million dollars), but this figure should also include the losses of the company's clients, who are demanding compensation for damages. Hackers believe that the final losses could far exceed 200 million rubles (over 2.2 million dollars).

It is worth noting that the company itself acknowledges the problem and assures in its social media channels that it will soon return to normal operations. Rialcom promises to compensate for all the days of forced downtime, but this will cost the company excessive resources and could lead to bankruptcy.

Cyber attacks on Russia

Since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, a number of hackers have launched cyber attacks on Russian services. Recently, a source from RBC-Ukraine reported that hackers from the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine attacked the electronic services of several Russian ministries.

Meanwhile, Roskomnadzor claimed that the disruption was allegedly related to an accident on the main communication network.

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine war: Can using Western weapons on Russia change the war?

The latest Russian advance in the Kharkiv region has convinced Kyiv’s allies to change their policy.

www.bbc.com

 

[Chadstroma]

Russia’s Gain Is Turning Out to Be China’s Pain​

As Ukraine fires Western missiles across the border, the costs of supporting Vladimir Putin are rising for Beijing.
June 6, 2024

Until very recently, Chinese President Xi Jinping may have felt vindicated in striking a “no limits” partnership with Russia’s Vladimir Putin. China has managed to provide just enough support to strengthen the Russian war effort in Ukraine, tilting momentum on the battlefield, without blatantly contravening US and European red lines against direct weapons sales.
Russia’s recent string of advances, however, threaten to make Xi’s life far more difficult.
For starters, the West isn’t blind to the fact that China’s provision of dual-use goods has been critical to recent Russian gains. Without Chinese support, which the US has publicly criticized as “a comprehensive and sustained effort that is backed up by the leadership,” it would be very difficult for Putin to wage a war of attrition.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken not only raised this issue directly with Xi in Beijing at the end of April, he issued a thinly veiled threat of new and harsher sanctions. US Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo repeated the warning recently in Kyiv.

The US has more than one reason to keep up this pressure campaign. China’s support for Russia is the best argument Washington has to nudge European allies toward adopting a more hawkish approach to China. As the US tries to persuade Europe to raise import barriers against Chinese EVs and green energy products, it helps to highlight the consequences of supporting the Chinese economy.
Meanwhile, Russia’s advances have strained Ukraine’s relations with China to the breaking point. Ukrainian leaders had previously gone out of their way to avoid antagonizing China, hoping perhaps that Xi would eventually force Putin to end the war on acceptable terms. Now, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has openly accused Beijing of acting at Russia’s behest to sabotage a forthcoming peace conference in Switzerland.
And, as challenging as the current diplomatic situation is, Xi could soon face a new crisis testing his influence over Putin.

In response to Russia’s military gains, Ukraine’s Western supporters have eased longstanding resistance to the use of their weapons against targets in Russia. After the UK , France, and Germany lifted such restrictions, US President Joe Biden also relaxed US policy , albeit with more conditions than Europe. Ukraine fired its first US-made missiles across the border this week.
Consequently, the Ukrainian conflict is entering a more dangerous phase. Putin warned against the use of Western weapons to strike Russian territory. Now that his red line has been crossed, he may feel the need to escalate to restore the credibility of his threats.
Much will depend on what kind of damage Western weapons inflict; Putin will calibrate his response according to results on the ground. If the new missiles destroy critical targets such as the Kerch Bridge linking Russia with Crimea, cause large-scale casualties, or put Russia’s recent military gains at risk, Putin may even carry out his threat to use tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine.

That would be a nightmare for China — and create its worst foreign policy crisis since the US sailed two aircraft carriers near Taiwan in 1996. Beijing will be blamed either for its failure to stop Russia (so far Xi has received some credit for warning Putin against nuclear escalation) or for its past support for Russian aggression.
Besides responding with more military aid for Ukraine, the West will likely seek to punish China by imposing the type of sanctions it has so far withheld, such as blacklisting one or two small or medium-sized Chinese banks and further tightening export controls. China could face the collective wrath of both the US and Europe.
Worst of all, China has few realistic options to insulate itself against the fallout. Xi could try to pressure Putin not to push the nuclear button. But, at the end of the day, the Russian leader knows that China can do nothing to stop him.
Xi’s earlier confidence is starting to look misplaced. The upside to his friendship with Putin is more limited than it may have first appeared. Just as clearly, the potential downside for China is not.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Macron Aims to Finalize Coalition to Send Instructors to Ukraine

French President Emmanuel Macron said he aims to put together a coalition in the coming days to send military instructors to Ukraine as Kyiv needs to train tens of thousands of new soldiers to repel Russia’s invasion.
“It’s much more efficient and practical for certain capacities in certain conditions to train on Ukrainian soil, it’s a legitimate request,” Macron told a news conference in Paris, standing alongside Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
“We’re going to use the coming days to finalize the broadest possible coalition,” he said, adding that several countries had already agreed to the plan.
White House spokesman John Kirby told reporters separately on Friday that the US would not send its own trainers into Ukraine, adding that it is grateful for Paris’s support for Kyiv.

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As much as I love the Mirage 2000-5, with Mica it offers limited air defence options for Ukraine in the face of overlapping Russian SAM and R-37M toting fighter threat picture. No more than F-16, at least.
Ukr brigade training in France is more useful!

War in Ukraine: By sending Mirage fighters, France steps up support for Kyiv

French President Emmanuel Macron announced on Thursday, June 6, that France would send Ukraine Mirage 2000-5s fighter jets. He did not specify the number of fighter jets to be delivered, of which France has a limited number.

www.lemonde.fr

In recent months, several sources within the armed forces and the government suggested that they had given up on this option, which was considered too complex, opting instead to step aside in favor of transfers of American F-16s proposed by other countries − Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark and Norway. The president's announcement has signified a break with that line. Macron did not specify how many Mirage jets might be sent, but he did say that "a coalition" was being "built" "with other partners," and that this could take "five to six months."
In practice, there aren't many realistic options for France to hand over a reasonable number of aircraft to Ukraine. The French air force has only a limited number of fighters at its disposal (26 Mirage 2000-5s, out of around 200 Mirage and Rafale aircraft). These numbers have already barely sufficed for France to carry out all the missions for which it is responsible on a day-to-day basis (territorial surveillance, deterrence, participation in NATO missions, etc.).
The last French fighter squadron still operating Mirage 2000-5s is the 1/2 Cigognes, stationed at the Luxeuil air base in eastern France. Yet withdrawing aircraft from this squadron to give to Kyiv would amount to ending the unit. Another option, discussed by experts, would therefore be to send Ukraine the Mirage 2000-5s that are currently in the hands of Qatar, which has been trying to sell them to Indonesia for several years. In February, Jakarta unexpectedly backed down from purchasing the 12 aircraft, valued at around €700 million.

Mirage 2000-5s are the French air force's oldest fighter aircraft, alongside Mirage 2000-Ds, which Kyiv has also been requesting. They have been scheduled for replacement by 2029. Nevertheless, they are still very much in use, notably in Djibouti, where the aircraft have been permanently based as part of a defense agreement on policing the skies over the Horn of Africa. In March, some of these aircraft were deployed to intercept Houthi drones in the Red Sea.

"Mirage 2000-5s have also been used, in recent months, to defend the skies over the Baltic states from Estonia and Lithuania," said Elie Tenenbaum, the director of the Security Studies Center at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) and author of a report, to be published in mid-June, on France's involvement on Europe's eastern flank. At the end of February, shortly after the cooperation agreement between France and Ukraine was signed, the French Armed Forces Linistry announced that several Mirage 2000-5 aircraft had intercepted Russian fighters off the Latvian coast.

After an announcement concerning the transfer of light tanks in January 2023, followed by long-range missiles in July 2023, the announcement about fighter aircraft signifies a new level of France's military support for Ukraine. "The Mirage 2000-5 is an aircraft configured for air defense and air-to-air combat, not for strikes on Russia, but it marks France's willingness to provide Ukraine with a real defensive air capability, at a time when Kyiv is in a precarious position in this area," said Tenenbaum of the IFRI. On May 18, Zelensky estimated that he would need to build up a fleet of around 120 to 130 fighter aircraft if Ukraine were to aim to put an end to Russia's domination.

Amid war, Putin looks east from Russia's window to Europe

Cut off from the West, Russia is pitching its $2 trillion economy to giants like China and Saudi Arabia and longer-term prospects like Zimbabwe and Afghanistan at its premier investment forum in St Petersburg, which was founded by the tsars as a window to Europe.
The war in Ukraine has led to the biggest upheaval in Russia's relations with the West since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, and Western sanctions have forced a once-in-a-century revolution in Russia's economic relations.
Since Peter the Great laid the foundations of the modern Russian state and made St Petersburg the capital in the early 18th Century, Russia's rulers have looked to the West as a source of technology, investment and ideas.
The 2022 invasion of Ukraine, though, has forced President Vladimir Putin to pivot towards Asia and the rest of the non-Western world amid what the Kremlin says amounts to an economic blockade by the United States and its European allies.
Western sanctions have not torpedoed Russia's economy, however, and Moscow has nurtured ties with China, major regional powers in the Middle East and across Africa and Latin America.
It is less clear, though, how much cash these countries are prepared to invest in Russia's economy, and at what price. No blockbuster deals were announced so far.
But Russian officials say it is just beginning - and that relations with the West are ruined for a generation.

Putin says Russia does not need to use nuclear weapons for victory in Ukraine

President Vladimir Putin said on Friday Russia had no need to use nuclear weapons to secure victory in Ukraine, the Kremlin's strongest signal to date that Europe's deadliest conflict since World War Two will not escalate into a nuclear war.
Since Putin ordered troops into Ukraine in February 2022, he has said on several occasions that Russia would use such weapons if necessary to defend itself - comments the West says are nuclear sabre-rattling.
Asked at the plenary session of the St Petersburg International Economic Forum by moderator Sergei Karaganov, an influential Russian analyst, if Russia should hold a "nuclear pistol to the temple" of the West over Ukraine, Putin said he did not see the conditions for using such weapons.
"The use is possible in an exceptional case - in the event of a threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country. I don't think that such a case has come. There is no such need," Putin said.
Moscow considers Crimea - which it seized from Ukraine in 2014 - and four other Ukrainian regions now as integral parts of its own territory, raising the possibility of a nuclear strike if Kyiv appeared poised to retake them.
Ukraine has stepped up drone and missile attacks on Russian targets, including in Crimea, and has vowed to drive all Russian forces from its territory.
Putin said he did not rule out changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine, which sets out the conditions under which such weapons could be used.
He also said that if necessary Russia could test a nuclear weapon, though he saw no need to do so at the present time.
The public debate about nuclear strikes on a stage at Russia's premier economic forum appeared to be a Kremlin attempt to reduce nuclear fears just as the Ukraine war escalates towards what both Russian and U.S. diplomats say is its most dangerous phase yet.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Germany may send another Patriot system to Ukraine

The German government is considering supplying Ukraine with another Patriot anti-aircraft missile battery, – its fourth, – to enhance Ukraine’s air defence.

www.pravda.com.ua

The German government is considering supplying Ukraine with another Patriot anti-aircraft missile battery, – its fourth, – to enhance Ukraine's air defence.

AFP: Still no G7 consensus over using frozen Russian assets for Ukraine

According to AFP, the U.S. is pushing the G7 to endorse a loan for Ukraine of up to $50 billion, secured by interest on the frozen assets.

kyivindependent.com

G7 leaders have still not reached a consensus on a deal to use profits from Russian assets to help Ukraine, AFP reported on June 7.

Ukraine's Western partners and other allies froze around $300 billion in Russian assets at the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022. Roughly two-thirds are held in the Belgium-based financial services company Euroclear.

While the U.S. proposed seizing Russian assets outright in accordance with their recently passed REPO act, the EU has been more hesitant, fearing legal and fiscal pitfalls of confiscation.

Instead, Brussels seeks to use windfall profits generated by the frozen assets and funnel them to Kyiv.

According to AFP, the U.S. is pushing the G7 to endorse a loan for Ukraine of up to $50 billion, secured by interest on the frozen assets.

But questions remain on issues such as what would happen if the assets were unfrozen in the event of a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.

All F-16 training slots are occupied, Ukraine’s Air Force says

Ukraine is currently utilising all available training slots for pilots and engineers for F-16 fighter jets, which are being provided by partner countries both in Europe and overseas.

www.pravda.com.ua

Ukraine is currently utilising all available training slots for pilots and engineers for F-16 fighter jets, which are being provided by partner countries both in Europe and overseas.

Source: Army Inform, citing Major Illia Yevlash, Head of Public Relations Service of Ukraine's Air Force, during the national joint 24/7 newscast

Quote: "We have several stages. Actually, they are all filled. The first stage is ground training and language courses. The second stage is training on light aircraft, and the third stage is training on F-16s, which is the final one. There are still a number of bureaucratic procedures and technical nuances to be completed. We are waiting for the aircraft as soon as possible."

Half of drones available for military were provided by volunteers — Ukrainian MP

About 60% of the military’s drone needs are being met, with 30% of these drones being provided by volunteers, but one military unit uses and loses between 100 and 1,500 UAVs in combat missions every month.

www.pravda.com.ua

About 60% of the military's drone needs are being met, with 30% of these drones being provided by volunteers, but one military unit uses and loses between 100 and 1,500 UAVs in combat missions every month.

Source: Ruslan Horbenko, MP and Deputy Chairman of the Human Rights Committee, in an interview with Ukrinform

Quote: "Unfortunately there have been cases where, for example, 26,000 drones were in storage points and did not reach the contact line. Even though you can never have too many drones at the contact line."

Details: Horbenko stressed that in all his visits to the front line, he had never heard the military say the brigades were fully equipped with drones.

"One military unit uses and loses between 100 and 1,500 UAVs every month as a result of combat missions," he said.

Horbenko noted that about 60% of the military's drone needs are currently being met. 30% of these are provided by volunteers.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

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Potentially a 4th Patriot system from Germany, 5th overall for Ukraine. U.S. is reportedly weighing donating another system as well, plus a possible system that would include a mix of components from the Netherlands and others. There may be a path for 7 Patriots total for Ukraine

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"An intelligence assessment shared with Western governments claims that Russia’s notorious GRU military intelligence agency, known for its attacks on foreign soil using highly trained agents, is now turning to criminal gangs to carry out attacks in Europe."

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The US has officially announced a new aid package for Ukraine, with equipment worth roughly $225 million. The package includes:

- HAWK surface to air missiles
- Stinger MANPADS
- Ammunition for HIMARS
- 155mm Howitzers
- 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds
- 81mm mortar systems
- M113 Armored Personnel Carriers
- Trailers to transport heavy equipment
- Coastal and riverine patrol boats
- Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles
- Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems
- Small arms ammunition and grenades
- Demolitions munitions
- Night vision devices
- Spare parts, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment

https://defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3799832/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

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Kharkiv Oblast, a Russian BMP suffers a catastrophic ammunition detonation after a Ukrainian drone strike.

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Video of a Russian BTR-82 coming under 25mm cannon fire from a Bradley IFV from Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade.

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Russia made incremental gains in the northern and southern parts of Chasiv Yar’s “Kanal” microdistrict, according to the latest map from the Ukrainian analytical project DeepState.

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A Ukrainian Telegram channel reported that last night, Ukraine shot down another Russian Kh-101 air-launched cruise missile with two warheads, only this time the second one was a cluster warhead.

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Another Russian CUAS drone equipped with a net to bring down small quadcopters.

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The Netherlands allocated 400 million euro for top-notch IFVs for .
The Dutch chipped into the Sweden-initiated fund to produce 230 CV90 vehicles.
Swedish CV90's have a fantastic reputation in our Army. Most of these vehicles will be produced in NL.

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A photo posted on the Fighterbomber VK page today showing a Su-35S equipped with:
R-37Ms (Station 1 & 2)
R-77-1s (Station 3 & 4)
R-73s/R-74Ms (Station 5 & 6)
Kh-31PM (Station 12)
L265M10P (Station 8)
L265M10R (Station 7)
Such a loadout is often used for combined CAP/SEAD sorties.

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Video of these UMPB D-30SN glide bombs being released by a Russian Su-34 strike fighter near Sheino, Belgorod Oblast.

Media: Explosions reported across occupied Crimea

Explosions were heard across Sevastopol in occupied Crimea overnight on June 8, the Telegram channel Crimean Wind reported.

kyivindependent.com

Explosions were heard across Sevastopol in occupied Crimea overnight on June 8, the Telegram channel Crimean Wind reported.

At around 1:39 a.m. local time, residents of Balaklava, a settlement in the city of Sevastopol, reportedly heard explosions. The first explosion allegedly took place near the Balaklava Thermal Power Plant. Crimean Wind alleges that large-caliber weapons were heard before the explosion, possibly indicating a drone attack.

A second explosion was heard closer to the coastline, near the Sevastopol port.

The Russian proxy leader in Sevastopol in occupied Crimea, Mikhail Razvozhayev, later claimed that the "loud sounds" residents heard in the Striletska Bay were the Russian forces destroying an "unmanned boat."

The Crimean Wind alleged that residents of Sevastopol had their windows blown out by the explosion in the coastal area.

The Kyiv Independent could not verify these claims.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

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It’s been another day with almost no electricity in my area of Kyiv.

It’s difficult enough now; but if the power situation cannot be stabilised before winter we will almost certainly see another wave of refugees fleeing west.

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If true, that would mean that both the 155th Guards and 810th Naval Infantry Brigade are deployed at Kharkov.
Both units were previously deployed at the Zaphorizhia front where they acted as one of the main elite units.

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The Czech Republic will not send its military instructors to Ukraine. Instead, Prague can train 4,000 Ukrainian soldiers on its territory, Czech Defense Minister Jana Černočová said in an interview with the Czech news agency ČTK.

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In early 2024, there was a hope that fear of secondary sanctions might cause China to cut exports to Russia. But recent exports to Russia are rising again, with the earlier drop looking like it was just a Chinese lunar new year effect. China remains Putin's biggest enabler...

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The Russians have installed barges on the southern side of the Kerch (Crimean) Bridge to protect it from Ukrainian attacks, the UK Ministry of Defense reports, citing its own intelligence. This is evidenced by satellite images.

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Russians report that there was an attempted attack on a Russian military airbase in Mozdok, Caucasus area. It’s known that Russian MiG-31 and Tu-22 are currently based at that airbase.

As claimed by Russians three Ukrainian drones were downed. At that moment there are no information about the damage on the ground.

Approximately 720km from the frontline.

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Another video showing the “Lyutyy" UAV approaching and probably hitting the “Mozdok” airbase in South Ossetia, Russia.

Impact occurred somewhere where those hangars are located at the airbase. Coordinates:

43°46'37"N 44°37'01"E

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Ukrainian Yak-52 aircraft filmed from Russian ZALA UAV.

Previously, Ukraine has begun using Yak-52s to intercept Russian UAVs.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

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The Netherlands and Germany will build a joint European production line for PATRIOT missiles, per a report by Dutch public broadcaster NOS.

The line will reportedly be set up in Germany, and the project has received the go-ahead from the US.
Additionally, the Netherlands will work with Denmark and Sweden to build CV-90 IFVs for Ukraine.

"European production capacity must be increased for Ukraine, but also for ourselves," says outgoing Minister of Defense Ollongren

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Finland has provided Ukraine with experimental and developmental weapons systems, per Finnish Defense Forces General Mikko Heiskanen.

When asked if their performance in Ukraine was good, he responded:

“Yes, There would be more demand for them”

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Russian troops storm a building in the central part of Chasiv Yar’s “Kanal” microdistrict (48.59444, 37.87874). A damaged/abandoned Ukrainian Roshel Senator is visible.

As you can see, Russian bombing and artillery have decimated many of the buildings in Chasiv Yar, particularly in this part of the city.

Video posted June 7.

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More footage of these Russian troops—reportedly from the 98th Guards Airborne Division—in the central part of Chasiv Yar’s “Kanal” microdistrict.

Ukraineâs defence forces control most of Vovchansk, Russians moving their troops there

Ukraineâs defence forces control most of the city of Vovchansk (Kharkiv Oblast), and the Russians are building up their group in this area.

www.pravda.com.ua

Ukraine's defence forces control most of the city of Vovchansk (Kharkiv Oblast), and the Russians are building up their group in this area.

Source: Nazar Voloshyn, Spokesperson for the Khortytsia Operational Strategic Group, during the national joint 24/7 newscast

Quote: "Most of the city of Vovchansk is controlled by the defence forces. They are keeping the enemy under fire control, inflicting the greatest possible damage on them and trying to move forward to liberate all our territories."

Details: Voloshyn further noted that the Russians are building up their group in the north of Kharkiv Oblast, moving additional forces from other areas and "trying to relocate units near the state border and involve Russia's Air Assault Forces (VDV)".

"There is also information that the enemy is using the tactic of deploying barrier units from among the personnel of the Akhmat units [loyal to Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov] to support its activities," the spokesman said, adding that these units are deployed in the border area with Ukraine. (Barrier units, also known as anti-retreat forces, are deployed to prevent retreat or desertion among their own forces. They are positioned behind the battlefield to enforce discipline and ensure that soldiers remain engaged in combat – ed.)

 

[Don't Toews Me]

One Ukrainian brigade holds back three Russian brigades on Pokrovsk front

The Ukrainian Ground Forces have reported that soldiers from the 47th Mechanised Brigade are holding back at least three Russian combat brigades on the Pokrovsk front.

www.pravda.com.ua

The Ukrainian Ground Forces have reported that soldiers from the 47th Mechanised Brigade are holding back at least three Russian combat brigades on the Pokrovsk front.

Source: Ukrainian Ground Forces

Details: The Ukrainian Ground Forces noted that the Russians are not reducing the pace of their assault actions and the Pokrovsk front is the epicentre of the fighting.

Quote: "Here, the enemy is trying to advance into the depths of our territory. Soldiers of the 47th Mechanised Brigade are holding back at least three Russian combat brigades.

With huge reserves of manpower, the Russians quickly replenish their huge losses and throw [new soldiers] into battle again and again. The fighting does not cease for a moment."

Czechia says more countries want to join ammunition initiative for Ukraine

Czechia has reported that it continues receiving messages from countries willing to participate in the Czech-led initiative to supply ammunition to Ukraine.

www.pravda.com.ua

Czechia has reported that it continues receiving messages from countries willing to participate in the Czech-led initiative to supply ammunition to Ukraine.

Source: Czech Defence Minister Jana Černochová, as reported by European Pravda, citing České noviny news outlet

Quote: "We have other memoranda of understanding on the table. Countries are still contacting us and want to participate in the ammunition initiative."

Details: Czech government officials noted that Ukraine is to receive about 500,000 artillery shells by the end of the year. Černochová said there should be enough donors on a regular basis.

 

[culdeus]

"The scale [of Russia's destruction in Ukraine] is hard to comprehend. More buildings have been destroyed in Ukraine than if every building in Manhattan were to be leveled four times over." Impressive @nytimes data story.

And this is one area that points out how Russia losses whether they win or lose in Ukraine. If they lose, they have spent their entire economy into a failed military expansion. (kind of tracks with Russian history). If they win, they take over a country that has tremendous damage and the rebuilding effort will be massive- which they will not be able to afford due to the cost of winning to begin with. (not to mention you can bet there would be an immediate and persistent insurgency following)

Since the begining of Tsardom in Russian (1547) , Russian has been involved in over 100 wars. They have not really gained in important land in those wars, nor have they lost much. It's a cycle that Putin can't come to grips with. Win a war, gain a broken land that will continuously revolt. Russia wastes a lot of time trying to expand though it's gotten them nowhere. They'd be better off in a cheaper defensive military posture and spending the money and resources elsewhere. They have enormous natural resources and a very difficult territory to attack. Just hang back and play it cool and in the long run they would come out more ahead.

I can't remember Crimea. Or any real outcry over that. Maybe putin dramatically miscalculated and thought he'd just grab the rest of it.

 

[Chadstroma]

"The scale [of Russia's destruction in Ukraine] is hard to comprehend. More buildings have been destroyed in Ukraine than if every building in Manhattan were to be leveled four times over." Impressive @nytimes data story.

And this is one area that points out how Russia losses whether they win or lose in Ukraine. If they lose, they have spent their entire economy into a failed military expansion. (kind of tracks with Russian history). If they win, they take over a country that has tremendous damage and the rebuilding effort will be massive- which they will not be able to afford due to the cost of winning to begin with. (not to mention you can bet there would be an immediate and persistent insurgency following)

Since the begining of Tsardom in Russian (1547) , Russian has been involved in over 100 wars. They have not really gained in important land in those wars, nor have they lost much. It's a cycle that Putin can't come to grips with. Win a war, gain a broken land that will continuously revolt. Russia wastes a lot of time trying to expand though it's gotten them nowhere. They'd be better off in a cheaper defensive military posture and spending the money and resources elsewhere. They have enormous natural resources and a very difficult territory to attack. Just hang back and play it cool and in the long run they would come out more ahead.

I can't remember Crimea. Or any real outcry over that. Maybe putin dramatically miscalculated and thought he'd just grab the rest of it.

You probably do not remember it because we didn't make it a thing. The US response to the invasion of Crimea can pretty much be summed up as "we really wish you hadn't done that. Please don't do it again" with the placing of travel restrictions on various Russians. People do not tend to understand how events like this lead to events we have seen over the last couple of years but it was an absolute, complete and total failure of the US and Europe. There is a direct link to seeing how the US reacted to the invasion and annexation of Crimea to the calculation that Russia could invade, capture and take ownership of Ukraine and then deal with some inevitable sanctions. To a degree, Putin was right. At least in as much as the US response would be with the invasion. The Russians sorely miscalculated their own capability and the amount of resistance that the Ukrainians could mount. Once they held and actually pushed the Russians back, then the US and NATO began to support the Ukrainians. If the Russian military was at the level that they thought and say it is... then this indeed would have been over with in a matter of days and likely the US and NATO would put the same sanctions on Russia as we have now and then again say "We really, really wish you hadn't done that. Please, with a cherry on top, don't do that again." Those who do not favor our support for Ukraine are ignorant of this understanding. And they further do not see how this directly relates to Taiwan/China. WIth the losses the Russians have taken both in their military and economy, it needs to be understood that China is taking notes. Just as past decisions affect us now, our decisions now have an affect on the future.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

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Two new pieces of news from Ukrainian Air Force Brigadier General Serhiy Golubtsov.

- Ukrainian Air Force Su-25 Frogfoots have effectively run out of unguided munitions.

- Instead, Ukrainian Air Force Su-25s are now carrying French-supplied AASM extended range guided bombs.

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Quick notes from an interview w/ UA Air Force head of aviation Serhii Holubtsov (published today).

I normally don't do translations, but I see a lot of mistranslations/misinterpretations of this interview - thus this thread.

Notes of 1st half below:
JDAM and other guided bomb use by UA:
- the quantities are limited thus limited effect on the battlefield
- enough airplanes have been modified to use them by now
- domestically UA produced glide/guide kits to be tested "in a few weeks"
- currenly GBU-39 and -62 are used w/ different warheads, these are highly effective
- their use is limited also by RU air defenses located on sovereign RU territory which UA was not allowed to target (presumably by donated weapons)
- GBU-39 are advantageous due to their small size: a) RU air defenses are highly ineffective against such small targets, b) more munitions per fighter jet
On RU air force:
- UA is using "at least [an order of magnitude] fewer guided bombs relative to the reported figure of 3000 [per month(?)] by RU"

On F-16:
- not panacea
- but in complex including AEW&C, Patriot and Link 16 we could push RU airplanes launching guided bombs away.
Storm Shadow / SCALP:
- UA use a combination of anti-radiation HARM missiles, MALD decoys, UAVs, EW, and mission planning to increase effectiveness
- operation planning in cooperation w/ HUR, SBU, UA general staff
- some SS/SCALP missiles do get downed by RU AD, but overall highly effective
- UA SS/SCALP are currently pre-programmed on the ground
UA aircraft adaptation to donated weapons:
- MiG-29 are generally easier to adapt than Su-27
Su-25:
- "in the beginning of the war we had plenty of unguided munitions for these airplanes for ground attack, we used them up within the first year, after which the partners began transferring us their unguided munitions, specifically Zuni rockets,

-->
--> which we used to use a lot as well, as of now no more such rockets are left in the world. Restarting their production doesn't make sense due to transitioning to high precision munitions"
- Su-25 have been adapted to use AASM/Hammer rocket assisted guided bombs, and are very effective
- 50 AASM/Hammer per month are delivered, "now there's pledge of 300 or more"

HARM:
- used "daily"
- RU adapted to their use (by turning off and/or changing frequencies)

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️ Colonel Clemente, Assistant Chief of Staff for 10th AAMDC, confirms a Ukrainian PATRIOT fire unit was responsible for engaging and destroying a Russian A-50U AEW&C aircraft in January 2024.

This refutes Russian claims the A-50U was lost in a friendly fire incident.

 

[Chadstroma]

Colonel Clemente, Assistant Chief of Staff for 10th AAMDC, confirms a Ukrainian PATRIOT fire unit was responsible for engaging and destroying a Russian A-50U AEW&C aircraft in January 2024.

This refutes Russian claims the A-50U was lost in a friendly fire incident.

At this point, anyone that believes anything that the Russians say is a brainless drooling moron. I am not sure if that government is capable of telling the truth.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukrainian warplane fires weapon at target inside Russia for first time

"While damage assessment is still occurring, it is confirmed as a direct hit," a Ukrainian military source tells Sky News.

news.sky.com

A Ukrainian warplane has for the first time fired a weapon that struck a target inside Russia, a Ukrainian military source has told Sky News.

The source said a "Russian command node" was hit on Sunday in the area of Belgorod, western Russia.

Belgorod is close to the border with northeastern Ukraine.

It was not immediately clear what type of munition was used in the attack, including whether or not it had been a Western weapon.

Su-57 Felon Struck Deep Inside Russia, Ukraine's Spy Agency Claims (Updated)

Both Ukrainian and Russian sources say that for the first time an Su-57 Felon, Moscow's most advanced combat aircraft, was struck.

www.twz.com

At least one and maybe two Su-57 Felon fighters, Moscow’s most advanced warplanes, were struck by drones at an airbase deep inside Russia, the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR) claimed. GUR posted satellite images on social media it says show one of the aircraft was damaged. The extent of that damage is unclear at the moment, but it would be the first known instance of these aircraft being damaged or destroyed as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

GUR commander, Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, told The War Zone that a second Felon may have been hit as well. The attack was carried out by drones, he told us, but would not say whether they were launched from inside Ukraine or Russia.

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Speaking to@donbassrealii, General Golubtsov of the PS ZSU indicates Ukraine received the United States’ entire inventory of Zuni aerial rockets.

All of these rockets have been expended in combat and it is no longer possible to acquire new Zunis.

in alt text

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French-supplied Mirage 2000-5s supplied to Ukraine will reportedly be modified to carry French/British SCALP/Storm Shadow air launched cruise missiles.

French manufacturer Dassault Aviation intends to carry out the modifications, per the French outlet La Tribune.

 

[Chadstroma]

At least one and maybe two Su-57 Felon fighters, Moscow’s most advanced warplanes, were struck by drones at an airbase deep inside Russia, the Ukrainian Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR) claimed. GUR posted satellite images on social media it says show one of the aircraft was damaged. The extent of that damage is unclear at the moment, but it would be the first known instance of these aircraft being damaged or destroyed as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Not nearly on the level of downing the A-50 in terms of it's impact on the Ukrainian battlefield, this is a big win for the Ukrainians. One or two damaged (hopefully destroyed) Felon's is a blow to Russian air capability. It would be similar to an adversary knocking down two of our F-22's..... well, not exactly as the Felon really is not a 5th gen fighter and more like a 4.5 gen fighter it does represent their most advanced asset in the air.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

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Ukrainian strikes with ATACMS missiles just hit Russian targets in the Crimea.

Explosions reported in the area of Yevpatoria, Pervomaiske, Saki and Krasnoperekopsk.

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Explosions reported in multiple parts of Russian-occupied Crimea tonight.

Seen (and heard) here, multiple explosions in Yevpatoriya, western Crimea.
Explosions also reported in Dzhankoy and Uglovoy.

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Summarized update from Frontelligence Insight on frontlines:

1/ The main Russian efforts remain in Donbas, particularly along the Pokrovsk-Chasiv Yar axis, which is currently the most difficult area. Vuhledar and Kupyansk areas are also key areas of focus. Thread:
2/ So far, Russian forces have failed to capitalize on the Kharkiv oblast incursion and did not achieve any operational successes in Donbas. They made tactical advances in Chasiv Yar, but given the number and higher-than-average quality of units there, progress is slow and costly
3/ As our team indicated months ago, the goal in Chasiv Yar isn't to hold the town at any cost but to ensure the enemy expends far more resources than planned, thereby crippling their ability to capitalize on its capture and develop an offensive towards Kostyantynivka
4/ While our team has observed the arrival and rotation of units near Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts, their numbers are relatively small. They wouldn't be able to achieve significant results if they launched an attack, likely achieving far less than the Russians did in Kharkiv.

5/ The Russian offensive may seem to be failing, but our team is thinking that such conclusions might be still premature. We continue to observe hundreds of vehicles, including tanks, APCs, and artillery systems, being relocated near Ukraine
6/ While the goals of these relocations are unclear, it's evident that Russia still retains offensive capabilities this summer and is capable of another large push before the window of opportunity closes for the year.
7/ While the trajectory is becoming much more optimistic for Ukraine, it's important to remember that despite the enormous losses the Russian military suffered near Avdiivka, including hundreds of lost vehicles in the first week of the October offensive, Avdiivka eventually fell.
8/ Even though the risk of a frontline collapse for Ukrainian forces is slim, Russian forces still have reserves and are capable of at least one serious push before their offensive loses its steam
9/ The full analysis will be released on our website later this week. In the meantime, please consider liking and sharing the first message in the thread.

 

[Orange&Blue]

Ukraine should have done a mobilization.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

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Russian sources report that overnight, Ukrainian forces targeted multiple Russian air defense installations in occupied Crimea with US-supplied MGM-140 ATACMS.

2 S-300/400 SAM systems and 4 radars were targeted in the Dzhankoy, Yevpatoriya, and Chornomorske areas.
Rybar and Astra report that the Russian 31st Air Defense Division took a severe hit, with several causalities.

Fighterbomber claims that Russian air defense officers are lying to their superiors.

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In addition to FIRMS showing fires near a field in Dzhankoi and at Gvardeyskoye Air Base occurring at the same time at night, the Russian Channel ASTRA reports:

1. None of the 10 ATACMS were shot down
2. 2 S-300s were damaged
3. 4 Radars were damaged
4. Saki was hit by 4 ATACMS

Ukrainian forces struck 1 Russian S-400 and 2 S-300 air defence battalions in Crimea overnight â Ukraineâs General Staff

Ukrainian forces struck a Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile battalion near the city of Dzhankoi and two S-300 anti-aircraft missile battalions near the settlements of Chornomorske and Yevpatoriia in Russian-occupied Crimea on the night of 9-10 June.

www.pravda.com.ua

Ukrainian forces struck a Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missile battalion near the city of Dzhankoi and two S-300 anti-aircraft missile battalions near the settlements of Chornomorske and Yevpatoriia in Russian-occupied Crimea on the night of 9-10 June.

Russians suspend traffic on Crimean Bridge, social media reports explosions in Crimea

The Russians once again suspended traffic on the Crimean (Kerch) Bridge on the night of 9-10 June, and social media reported explosions in Crimea.

www.pravda.com.ua

The Russians once again suspended traffic on the Crimean (Kerch) Bridge on the night of 9-10 June, and social media reported explosions in Crimea.

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Mediazona and BBC Russia obtained docs detailing payments to deceased Wagner mercenaries. Data reveals that nearly 20k Wagner members died in Bakhmut (17k former convicts). Overall, data shows Prigozhin recruited 48,000 ex-convicts. Staggering numbers

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An explosion has occurred at the Mesko S.A. arms factory in southeastern #Poland. The explosion reportedly occurred in a rocket fuel center.

At the time of the explosion there were two people inside, the third was outside - she was not injured. A 59-year-old man was killed and one injured, plant director Elżbieta Szreniawska told RMF24 radio station.

Fire brigades are working at the site, and an ambulance helicopter has also landed. As a result, the injured man was taken to hospital by ambulance. There is no threat to his life.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Client Challenge

The top Ukrainian official overseeing wartime reconstruction and defence fortifications has resigned, claiming his agency was being systematically undermined by the government.

Mustafa Nayyem’s departure is the latest in a series of personnel changes in Kyiv that have shaken the confidence of western partners in President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government and irked some of Ukraine’s own officials.

Nayyem, head of the State Agency for Restoration and Infrastructure Development, told the Financial Times that Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal had barred him from participating in the annual Ukraine Recovery Conference on June 11 and 12 in Berlin, where donors will meet to support projects for rebuilding cities and infrastructure destroyed by Russia’s full-scale invasion.

The void left by Nayyem and the absence of an infrastructure minister are likely to prompt questions about Kyiv’s ability and commitment to protect its critical infrastructure as Russian forces continue to conduct air strikes on Ukraine’s power plants and mount offensives in the country’s east. Two agency officials responsible for anti-corruption policy and procurement resigned with Nayyem on Monday.

Six Ukrainian and western officials told the FT that a series of firings, resignations and government reshuffles directed by Zelenskyy in recent months had caused tension between Kyiv and the western partners financing Ukraine’s defence and reconstruction.

All of them told the FT that they had warned Zelenskyy and his government over what they saw as disruptive and inexplicable moves.

“The US and other western partners want a normal, predictable relationship with their Ukrainian counterparts,” one concerned Ukrainian government official told the FT on condition of anonymity. “Right now they are losing trust in Ukraine’s government because of personnel decisions that they do not understand.”

The FT obtained a letter from the prime minister to Nayyem that read: “I agree to your business trip to Berlin . . . The report on the results of the business trip must be submitted within 10 days of its completion.” However, in blue ink, the handwritten words “I do not agree” were added at the top of the page, and the underlined, handwritten words “I do not” were added beside the start of the printed “I agree.” It was signed by Shmyhal and dated June 7, and its authenticity was confirmed by a government official.

Ukrainian officials said political rivalries were at the heart of the government shake-up, but the government said Nayyem’s travel request to Berlin was denied because a meeting to review his agency’s work was scheduled for June 12 in Kyiv. Nayyem’s statements “appear to be an attempt to avoid reporting on today’s critical issues”, a cabinet spokesperson said.

Zelenskyy is expected to attend the conference while in Berlin to deliver a speech to the German parliament. But experts said the absence of the top bureaucrat in charge of Ukraine’s reconstruction was unlikely to sit well with foreign partners at an event focused on rebuilding the country.

“It sends our partners a message that recovery is not a priority any more,” said Hlib Vyshlinsky, the executive director at the Kyiv-based Centre for Economic Strategy.

In his resignation letter, seen by the FT on Monday, Nayyem said he was stepping down “due to systemic obstacles that do not allow me to effectively exercise my powers”.

Beginning last November, he said his agency faced “constant opposition, resistance and the creation of artificial obstacles” which he argued had “a negative impact on the country’s defence capability, cargo logistics, protection of critical infrastructure and export of our goods”.

Two weeks before his resignation in late May, Nayyem gathered two dozen representatives from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and other western agencies to tell them he expected to be fired and to have probes launched into the work of the infrastructure ministry under his ally Oleksandr Kubrakov, the former infrastructure minister, according to audio recording obtained by the FT and two people in attendance.

Nayyem is heard in the recording assuring the agency representatives that the numerous projects in which they were involved, worth hundreds of millions of dollars, would stay on track, and he encouraged them to work with whoever replaced him. But several western representatives aired their concerns about his looming departure.

“It’s probably our most important partnership as we prepare for the reconstruction of the country and as we work towards this common goal of getting Ukraine back to business, getting exports flowing,” said a woman representing USAID.

Nayyem’s departure follows the dismissal of Kubrakov in May. The two men were in charge of Ukraine’s wartime reconstruction as well as the construction of the country’s “third lines” of defence fortifications to keep the Russians from penetrating deep inside the country. But two Ukrainian officials said that Kubrakov was viewed by Zelenskyy and his office as being too cozy with Washington. Zelenskyy’s office has not commented on Kubrakov’s dismissal, which was approved by parliament.

“This situation is really bad for perception of the Ukrainian government and Ukraine generally. Ukraine is and has to be perceived as unbroken,” Vyshlinsky said. The sacking of Kubrakov and Nayyem’s departure “build an image of weak and unpredictable governance that is unjust to efforts of Ukrainians during these years”.

Kubrakov’s removal sparked a backlash from Ukraine’s biggest western backers in private and in public, according to the six Ukrainian and western officials.

Diplomats from G7 nations as well as current members of the Ukrainian government described frustration over what they said was internal discord and dysfunction plaguing Zelenskyy’s administration and government at a critical moment in the war.

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Russian channels report the discovery of Baba Yaga-type armoured drones, rumored to be equipped with 5 mm armour covering all main components and the battery.

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The Ukrainian 47th Brigade released a video showing two Ukrainian Mi-24 attack helicopters striking Russian positions at the Avdiivka sector.

Source: Telegram / Brygada47

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Russians are responding to today's footage in which an American officer asserts that the January downing of a Russian A-50 aircraft was executed by the Patriot system. However, reactions have been muted, as this "red line" has lost its novelty, it seems.

In other developments, Fighterbomber reports that the effectiveness of guided bombs is declining. This is attributed to enhancements in electronic warfare (EW) systems on both sides, which significantly impair the accuracy of the bombs.

Police investigating case of attempted arson by man suspected of being hired by Russia

Police investigating case of attempted arson by man suspected of being hired by Russia

english.radio.cz

According to news site Deník N, security forces were already on high alert due to a series of mysterious arson attacks on infrastructure in Germany and the Baltic states that have occurred in recent months and therefore immediately suspected that this attack could be linked to these other similar cases. After checking the suspect's mobile phone, they discovered the man was a member of a Telegram group in which arson attacks were being discussed. The Czech secret service suspects Russia of being behind the attempted attack and are now investigating the case.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Thread: https://x.com/Dmojavensis/status/1800066106365026712

Second half of my quick notes from an interview w/ UA Air Force head of aviation Gen. Serhii Holubtsov (https://youtube.com/watch?v=AZmiXRUn4L4). For the notes on the first half of the interview see linked thread.

The second half was mostly about F-16s and a little bit about JAS 39 Gripen.

F-16
Munitions:
- all airplanes will have improved "sight" (in Ukrainian usually that mean improved radar - no further details given), will [also] have pods for ground attack targeting
- Gen. Holubtsov won't give away technical details on air-to-air munitions or the radar modifications, but mentions "AIM-120 is used [on these airplanes] and its combat range, let's say according to 'some data', is up to 180+ km"
On the effect that F-16 may have in UA:

- In last year's interview Gen. Holubtsov said "3-4 squadrons minimum to make a difference on a specific front segment"
- During the last year [mobile] Patriot helped make difference "on a specific front segment" and compensate for the absense of F-16s: after 13 RU aircraft were downed within two weeks they (RU) stopped using guided bombs at Chernihiv and Kherson front segments -->
--> and started hunting for Patriot. Now, together with Patriot, we are expecting a similar effect (either change of RU tactics or complete cessation of aviation use on certain front segments).
- as to the numbers [of F-16s] pilot training is a (the?) bottleneck. Western [fighter] jets are very different in terms of weapon use compared to Soviet jets and thus training takes time.
- This year we will see the effect of F-16s [on the battlefield] and then we will know what to change (or not change).
- Three phases to introduce F-16s in UA: "crawl, walk, run". "At this point we haven't learnt how to crawl - when the a/c arrive to UA we will understand that we can 'crawl'", trying the a/c out deep inside UA in relatively safe [air]space. -->
--> "Then we'll learn to walk, and then to run - achieving air superiority".
English for training:
- very important
- tried training [technical staff?] w/ translators, but ended up sending them to English classes anyway in the end
- technical staff spends about 2-4 months just on English training (if I understood Gen. Holubtsov corectly)
On how many F-16s will arrive to Ukraine:
- not all F-16s will go to straight to Ukraine: some will remain abroad as dedicated trainers for UA pilots, some will be kept abroad as reserve to replace F-16s in UA if they are damaged or -->
--> require servicing [that prevents them from flying for significant time]

- the number of F-16s in UA will be a function of the number of "pilots, engineers, technical staff, and airfields" available
On when and how many F-16s will arrive to UA:

- Gen. Holubtsov won't comment on exact dates other than that this year F-16s are planned to be in UA. "Let RU feel w/ their skin when F-16s are in".

- at least "a flight of jets" will arrive, "at the minimum, but can be more".
F-16 infrastructure and airfield protection:

- can protect against aerodynamic targets (as long as we have AD munitions)

- RU use up to 20 cruise missiles per airfield in a single attack
- need "minimum two Patriot batteries, two NASAMS, plus Gepards" (he didn't specify per what area/etc)

- they [UA Air Force] are most worried that RU won't be sparing Kinzhal and/or Iskander ballistic missiles to target F-16s.
Finally, on JAS 39 Gripen:

- F-16 was offered first, UA is preparing infrastructure for it

- but UA did request JAS 39 in the past, it's not the first priority now [that is obviously F-16 now], but UA is very interested in getting JAS 39 Gripen.

 

[themeistersinger]

Putin's War, Week 119.

https://redstate.com/streiff/2024/06/09/putins-war-week-119-n2174961

 

[Don't Toews Me]

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1/3 Russian defense industry unveiled a Golub (Pigeon) heavy quadcopter that can carry 12 VOG rounds or one 82-mm mortar. The drone allegedly can use machine vision to "automatically recognize infantry - people in military uniform, with weapons - using a neural network."
2/3 Golub has a 10km range, is also allegedly EW-proof and was already tested in Ukraine. It is now apparently going into mass production. It was unveiled at the HeliRussia 2024 expo taking place this week.
3/3 Such claims of AI-enabled drones are becoming more and more common from Russian defense industry and from many volunteer and start-up enterprises. There is no word on its actual performance in Ukraine, despite developers claims it was tested in combat.

Czechs Blame Russia for Backing Failed Arson Attack in Prague

Speaking in a televised briefing after a meeting of the country’s security council, Prime Minister Petr Fiala said authorities in several European Union nations have in recent weeks uncovered information that Russian intelligence services may be planning various sabotage actions across the bloc.
“There is a suspicion that the attack was organized and financed most likely from Russia,” he said. “It’s part of a hybrid war that Russia is waging on us, against which we have to defend ourselves and which we have to stop.”

Belarus and Russia to conduct joint nuclear drills

Belarus said the exercises are necessary due to some Western countries’ “plans to use military force against our state.”

www.politico.eu

Belarus will participate in nuclear drills with Russia, its defense ministry said Monday.

The exercises are a reaction to “unsuccessful attempts to drag [Belarus] into an epidemic of color revolutions and crush us with economic sanctions” and some Western countries' “plans to use military force against our state,” Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin said in a post on Telegram.

It’s the second time Belarus and Russia have practiced deploying nuclear weapons together, with the first stage of the joint maneuvers taking place last month in Russia's Southern Military District, which includes parts of Ukraine partially occupied by Russia.

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A Ukrainian military spokesman said Russia is transferring additional units from the VDV, 11th Army Corps, and 44th Army Corps to the Kharkiv direction, including some units that were deployed in the Kherson direction. Ukraine’s National Resistance Center also reported that Russia is transferring units from Kherson to Kharkiv. I’m guessing these are VDV units.

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Ukrainian analytical project DeepState reported incremental Russian gains in/around Novooleksandrivka as well as near Umanske and Arkhanhelske. Russian forces are currently a little over 8 km from the Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka highway.

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Interesting undated photo posted on the Fighterbomber TG channel earlier today showing 2 VKS A-50U AEW&C aircraft.
B/N "43" Red is the seventh aircraft modernized to the A-50U standard (delivered in Dec. 2021), while B/N "50" Red is presumably the eighth (delivered in Sep. 2023).

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/chechen-leader-kadyrov-says-russian-troops-capture-ukrainian-border-village-2024-06-09/

A local Ukrainian official on Monday denied a claim by the leader of Russia's Chechnya region that Russian forces led by a Chechen-based special forces unit had seized control of a border village in northeast Ukraine.
Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov said on Sunday the Akhmat-Chechnya unit spearheaded Russian troops in taking control of Ryzhivka in Sumy region.
The "large-scale planned advance" inflicted "significant losses on the Ukrainian side, which was forced to retreat," Kadyrov said.
However, Yuriy Zarko, a local official in Sumy, denied the presence of Russian troops in Ryzhivka on Monday in a comment to Ukrainian media outlet Suspilne.
Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Ukrainian government's Centre for Countering Disinformation, said on Telegram that Russian forces had tried to test Ukraine's defences on the Ryzhivka front. Ukrainian forces are in control of the situation but the threat of Russian actions in the border area remains, he added.

 

[Chadstroma]

Fire Engulfs Russian Vessel Admiral Levchenko in the Barents Sea, Ukrainian Official Reports​

Story by Ella Bennet

A fire has reportedly broken out on the Russian anti-submarine ship Admiral Levchenko in the Barents Sea, following an engine malfunction, as told by Dmytro Pletenchuk, the press officer for Ukraine’s Armed Forces’ Southern Defense Forces, on June 10.

Via a Facebook update, Pletenchuk communicated that the vessel, which was carrying several hundred persons, was currently engaged in a “struggle for survival.”

“We hope in vain,” he expressed further.

The Kyiv Independent has been unable to independently confirm the allegations.

The fire’s root cause was identified by Pletenchuk as the impact of Western sanctions preventing the Russian Navy from servicing its engines of Mykolaiv origin internally.

The Ukrainian port city of Mykoliav has a legacy of constructing and maintaining a number of Russia’s Soviet-era naval vessels.

Within the backdrop of Russia’s comprehensive invasion of Ukraine, most incidents of Russian maritime vessels catching fire have occurred in the Black Sea, where they have been targets of Ukrainian naval drones or missiles.

As reported in December 2023, approximately 30% of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has been decimated, per statements from the Ukrainian military.

The Ukrainian forces allegedly incapacitated the Rostov-on-Don, one of the Russian fleet’s vital missile-submarines, at the occupied port of Sevastopol in September 2023.

In recent advancements, Ukrainian Magura V5 naval drones inflicted damage to four Russian patrol motorboats of the KS-701 Tunets (Tuna) class in Crimea on May 30, as affirmed by Ukraine’s military intelligence. Reports indicate the destruction of two and impairment of the remaining vessels.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

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Fighterbomber says the accuracy of UMPK glide bombs has been deteriorating due to EW.

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Yesterday, Ukrainian forces successfully struck a Russian 6th Combined Arms Army command post at a resort in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, Russia.

At least 8 Russian officers are currently reported missing.

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A TG channel associated with Russia's 98th Guards Airborne Division attributed its recent gains in Chasiv Yar in part to Ukraine's redeployment of units to the Kharkiv direction (as well as strong Russian artillery & air support).

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Updated map from @Deepstate_UA showing Russian gains over the past few days in Staromaiorske, on the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk front, towards Chasiv Yar, and the capture of Ivanivske.

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Col. Vadym Sukharevskyi, 39, was appointed commander of Ukraine's new Unmanned Systems Forces. He's a decorated combat veteran who in February was appointed deputy commander-in-chief responsible for unmanned systems.

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In an interview published on May 3, Col. Vadym Sukharevskyi, deputy CinC for unmanned systems and the newly appointed commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces, said the average brigade loses ~12 Mavics every 24 hours.

Here's how Sukharevskyi recently described the purpose of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces. In short, systematizing and scaling technical solutions, TTPs, and training related to unmanned systems and counter-unmanned systems.

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Better quality Maxar satellite images of the Russian Su-57 fighter jet that was hit by Ukraine with 3 kamikaze drones landing 4-7 meters from the plane at Akhtubinsk air base on June 8

2 more Su-57s were near it, and a spot was open with a fake Su-57 painted

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Very interesting. Russians testing a remote-control system for tanks using a captured T-72AMT, nicknamed "Vasya," reportedly in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

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Russian developers are discussing an “Intercept” (Перехват) CUAS bullet that unfolds a Kevlar net that entangles a small drone, causing it to crash.

Scholz promises delivery of air defence systems and ammunition in coming âweeks and monthsâ

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has announced that Ukraine will receive new air defence systems, including one Patriot air defence system, as well as missiles and ammunition in the coming âweeks and monthsâ.

www.pravda.com.ua

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has announced that Ukraine will receive new air defence systems, including one Patriot air defence system, as well as missiles and ammunition in the coming "weeks and months".

Source: Scholz at the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Berlin on Tuesday, 11 June, as reported by European Pravda

Details: The chancellor noted that a strong and free European Ukraine would "defeat Russian imperialism" and announced the planned arms supplies.

Quote: "The most common need of the Ukrainian army now is ammunition and weapons, especially air defence systems. Therefore, in the coming weeks and months, we will supply Ukraine with the third Patriot air defence system, IRIS-T, Gepards, missiles and ammunition,’ Scholz said.

He called on the states present at the conference to support the German initiative to boost Ukraine's air defence capabilities "with everything they can".

Russians resume transporting fuel via potentially targeted Crimean Bridge â ISW

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has believed that Ukrainian strikes on Russian military and logistical targets may have compelled Russian forces to change their deployment and transport arrangements.

www.pravda.com.ua

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has believed that Ukrainian strikes on Russian military and logistical targets may have compelled Russian forces to change their deployment and transport arrangements.

Source: Institute for the Study of War (ISW)

Details: The Atesh Ukrainian partisan movement, based in Crimea, shared on 10 June that Russian forces have recently shifted air defence systems from temporarily occupied Crimea to Belgorod Oblast. This move leaves Crimea somewhat exposed as Russian air defences are not fully covering the region anymore.

Footage from 8 June reveals Russia's activity of transporting fuel over the Kerch Strait via the railway bridge.

Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk, spokesperson for the Joint Press Centre for Operational Command Pivden (South), said the Russian authorities had halted the transport of fuel across the Kerch Strait railway bridge since March 2024 due to fears of Ukrainian attacks that could potentially damage the bridge.

However, Ukrainian military-focused news outlet Militarnyi suggested on 10 June that Ukrainian strikes against railway barges in the Kerch Strait on 30 May might have prompted Russian authorities to resume the transport of fuel via the railway bridge.

Quote from ISW: "It is unclear whether Russian authorities will continue to use the Kerch Strait railway bridge for fuel and logistics transport to occupied Crimea in the near to medium term.

Doing so would likely alleviate some logistics constraints as Russia struggles to compensate for lost ferries across the strait but would leave the Kerch Strait bridge increasingly vulnerable to Ukrainian strikes, particularly if Russian air defence coverage of Crimea is degraded as Atesh reported."

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Report: Russia's war has caused over $56 billion in damage to Ukraine's energy sector

Russia's full-scale invasion has inflicted $56.2 billion in damage to Ukraine's energy sector as of May 2024, according to the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) report published on June 10.

kyivindependent.com

Russia's full-scale invasion has inflicted $56.2 billion in damage to Ukraine's energy sector as of May 2024, according to the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) report published on June 10.

A recent uptick in Russian strikes put a heavy strain on Ukraine's power grid, with several power plants being destroyed or disabled.

The energy sector suffered direct damage and indirect financial losses in the amount of $56.2 billion, while the restoration needs, which include the complete reconstruction of destroyed facilities, are $50.5 billion, the report says.

Direct damage to Ukraine's energy sector amounted to more than $16.1 billion as of May 2024, as KSE estimates.

Ukraine’s Vision of Robot Assassins Shows Need for Binding AI Rules

Imagine a drone equipped with enough sensors and intelligence to identify a person by the sound of their voice. And then imagine that drone attacks.
Alex Bornyakov, Ukraine’s deputy tech minister, laid out the above scenario last week at a NATO event in Poland, detailing how a military drone could take out a Russian “war criminal” with a targeted assassination.
It was an unsettling advancement to weaponized drones, which the deputy minister added was only in the “prototyping” phase inside Ukraine. But much of the artificial intelligence needed for it exists now. “Computer vision works,” he said. “It’s already proven.”
The idea would take advantage of one of Ukraine's warfare innovations. The country has installed thousands of mobile phones, on cell towers and gas stations, to act as its digital ears. Data from these sensors are paired with a neural network to create artificial intelligence tools that Bornyakov said can track enemy drones or hear when Russia fires off rockets.
However, giving computers potential control over lethal decisions, like the system Bornyakov described, is controversial among Ukraine's allies. He was speaking at a North Atlantic Treaty Organization forum in Krakow, organized to announce a new partnership with Ukraine and to showcase the nation’s rapid deployment of wartime drones, software and other equipment.
NATO has an ethical framework for AI and seeks to ensure reasonable human input in any lethal use of force. David van Weel, a NATO assistant secretary general, said one way the organization uses AI is in reading satellite footage to count Russian aircraft and fueling stations. “It’s low-risk,” he said. “Nobody gets killed if you get the number off.”
There are calls for those principles to be codified into legally-binding rules, including by the United Nations. “Non-binding principles and declarations, and ad hoc policy measures, are not sufficient to address the significant challenges which autonomous weapons pose,” the organization Stop Killer Robots said to Bloomberg.
A NATO representative said the alliance plans to share revisions of its AI strategy at its July summit.
Still, it was hard to get away from the theme of autonomy at the Krakow gathering. “Definitely AI is one of the top priorities for Ukraine,” said Nataliia Kushnerska, chief operating officer for Brave1, a government-backed initiative to help the private sector and military work together on defense tech.
At a media briefing with Bornyakov and Pentagon officials, Kushnerska outlined some of the AI features Ukraine’s military already uses. It runs a large-language model to monitor Russian media and propaganda, which increasingly use generative AI to produce content. (Bornyakov later said he couldn’t specify whose models Ukraine uses.)
There’s also Griselda, a software program launched last year that sifts through data from satellites, social media and “even hacked enemy databases,” according to the Ukrainian government.
Two years after invading Ukraine, Russia has proven that it too can wield electronic warfare, particularly with GPS jamming. But Bornyakov called Ukraine’s acoustic sensor network a distinct advantage. “They don’t have this,” he said. He added that island nations like Cyprus and Taiwan, more exposed to potential attacks, might be interested in such a sensor network.
NATO has thrown more resources behind Ukraine, without declaring war on Russia. The alliance's new tech fund just invested in a startup shipping military robots to Ukraine.
Ukraine has been talking AI for some time. It’s used data-crunching from Palantir Technologies Inc. for battlefield decision-making and reconstruction work. But Ukrainian officials have also criticized some AI wonders promised by tech vendors as “R&D projects,” more hype than impact.
Another problem is the reality on the ground. Oleksandr Chendekov, co-founder of FoxFour, one of several Ukrainian startups at NATO's event, said disruptions to internet networks make using even services like ChatGPT impossible. “On the frontline, we have no cloud,” he said. “We have no communications.”
Companies building tech for the battlefield don’t necessarily have the AI secret sauce either. The most valuable information for this, like video footage taken from drones, is treated as classified and not shared with local startups, according to Chendekov.
Officials and companies in the country have had ongoing talks about changing that, he said, but “it remains a challenge.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Exclusive: Kharkiv mayor says striking Russia has helped to calm embattled city

Ukraine's army has struck missile launch positions in Russia, helping to reduce the number of attacks on the embattled city of Kharkiv, its mayor told Reuters on Tuesday.
His comments came after U.S. President Joe Biden late last month approved the use of American weapons to strike targets inside Russia that were being used to attack Kharkiv, Ukraine's second city located close to the Russian border.
While missile and drone strikes continue, Ihor Terekhov said the change had helped bring relative "calm".
"This has helped," Terekhov said in an interview in Berlin, when asked whether the ability to strike inside Russia had alleviated the situation following weeks of heavy bombardment.
"That is why maybe Kharkiv has ... this period of ... calm the last couple of weeks ... that there were no great strikes as it was, for example, in May." He was speaking through a translator.

Poll: Many Ukrainians see war as stalemate but most back fight vs. Russia

Nearly half of Ukrainians believe the war with Russia is at a stalemate, according to a new poll, but nearly three-quarters said they were “very confident” or “somewhat confident” that Ukraine “will eventually liberate all of its territories” — a potentially unrealistic expectation but one that suggests little willingness to surrender land now occupied by Moscow’s forces.
The poll, conducted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) and a Ukrainian sociological research firm, Rating, is one of the most extensive measures of public opinion in Ukraine since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, its organizers said. The poll surveyed 2,000 people across all regions of Ukraine but not those living abroad, where millions have fled.
The survey was conducted in March shortly after Ukrainian troops retreated from the strategic eastern city of Avdiivka, surrendering it to Russian control. Since then, Russia has unleashed a new assault on the northeastern Kharkiv region and made modest but notable territorial advances, which have slowed since supplies of American weapons resumed following approval by Congress in April of a new aid package.

Overall, the poll, which is being published this week, found strong public support for the ongoing war effort and an unwillingness to accept Russia’s core demands, which include the surrender of four regions of southeastern Ukraine. The findings showed “a robust degree of national unity,” according to Eric Ciaramella, one of the principal researchers at CEIP.
Some 44 percent of respondents said they believed that neither Ukraine nor Russia was winning the war, while 41 percent said that Ukraine was winning and just 5 percent that Russia was winning.

“There’s obviously war fatigue setting in, which is understandable after two-and-a-half years,” Ciaramella said. This has yielded “a greater degree of uncertainty” about “who’s winning” or “what the battlefield is going to look like in a year or two,” he said.
But, Ciaramella said, the views do not “translate into a desire to concede to Russia’s key demands.” He added: “The resilience factor is still there in a remarkable way.”
That resilience, however, may prove unrealistic. In all, 73 percent of respondents were either “very confident in” or “somewhat confident” that Ukraine “will eventually liberate all of its territories,” and 59 percent said they believed the war would continue for less than one year or one to two years.
The survey also found striking new divisions among age groups, with older Ukrainians more optimistic about Ukraine’s chances of prevailing militarily and less willing to seek a compromise with Russia.

More than half of respondents over age 60 — 54 percent — said Ukraine is winning the war, while just 31 percent of those 18 to 25 believed so. Roughly 60 percent of the older group said that Ukraine should not negotiate for peace with Russia, compared to 47 percent of the younger cohort.
This result represents a shift in attitudes, including from before the invasion, when older Ukrainians often expressed more pro-Russian positions, while younger Ukrainians were more Western-leaning and reform-minded, according to Tetiana Skrypchenko, a researcher from the Rating sociological firm.
“Older people … changed their views,” Skrypchenko said. “They think we should fight to the end, join NATO and not go to negotiations.”
While the generational split has been growing since the start of the invasion, it is now far more stark.
“Some kind of social tension and potential social conflict can be growing,” Skrypchenko said. “Younger people want to live their life, and older ones say, ‘No, there is a war going on in our country.’”

Ukrainians also remain deeply suspicious of Russia’s motives, with more than 90 percent believing that Russia wants to enter negotiations to give it time for another attack. More than 80 percent said they think Russia will attack again, even if a peace deal is signed.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

U.S. to Send Another Patriot Missile Battery to Ukraine

The system is one of the best air-defense weapons, but the United States and its allies have a limited supply.

www.nytimes.com

President Biden has approved the deployment of another Patriot missile system to Ukraine, senior administration and military officials said, as the country struggles to fend off Russian attacks on its cities, infrastructure and electrical grid.
Mr. Biden’s decision came last week, the officials said, after a series of high-level meetings and an internal debate over how to meet Ukraine’s pressing needs for bolstered air defenses without jeopardizing U.S. combat readiness.
The new Patriot system — the second that the United States has sent to Ukraine — will come from Poland, where it has been protecting a rotational force of American troops who will be returning to the United States, officials said.
The system could be deployed to Ukraine’s front lines in the next several days, U.S. officials said, depending on any maintenance or modifications it needs.
Considered one of the United States’ best air-defense weapons, the Patriot includes a powerful radar system and mobile launchers that fire missiles at incoming projectiles.

Damaged Su-57 Emphasises the Vulnerability of Russian Airbases Near Ukraine

Ukraine’s apparent success in damaging a Su-57 is a substantial blow to Russia’s long-troubled stealth fighter fleet, and another Illustration of Ukraine’s most effective option for countering increasingly effective Russian air attacks on the frontlines.

www.rusi.org

Despite its impact on the VKS’s most prestigious fighter fleet, the direct effects of this strike on the progress of the war in Ukraine will be almost non-existent. Due to its small fleet size, the political humiliation if one were to be shot down, and slow aircraft systems development, the Su-57 has played an extremely minor role in the conflict to date. However, the strike is illustrative of the fact that Ukraine now has a relatively mature low-cost long-range harassment capability that it can use against VKS bases a long way inside Russia.

This is important for the course of the entire war, because over the past six months the fighter and strike fighter aircraft of the VKS have been having an increasingly pronounced impact on the frontline after almost two years of relative ineffectiveness. The main tool that has enabled this is the mass production of wing-kits featuring GPS/GLONASS guidance that can turn Russia’s stockpile of thousands of FAB-series 250 kg, 500 kg and 1,500 kg unguided demolition bombs into standoff precision weapons against fixed targets like buildings and battlefield fortifications. These weapons are having a serious impact on Ukrainian soldiers’ morale, making it harder to hold key defensive positions and causing huge destruction in urban areas.

The glide bombs are generally released by Russian jets flying at high altitudes and speeds between 60 km and 70 km behind the frontlines. This means that the launch aircraft are very difficult to shoot down, even with long-range Patriot PAC-2 surface-to-air missile systems (SAMs). Ukraine has done so several times, but this requires risking the scarce and vital Patriot systems very close to the frontlines, and some launch vehicles have been found by Russian observation UAVs and destroyed during such missions. With so many competing demands for missile defence for power infrastructure, cities and bases throughout Ukraine, long-range SAMs are too valuable to routinely risk trying to take long shots at glide bomb-launching fighters. It is also not viable to directly intercept the bombs in flight, because doing so would very rapidly deplete all of Ukraine’s SAM ammunition.

Even when the long-awaited pan-European F-16s and later planned Swedish Gripen C and French Mirage 2000-5F fighters are delivered to Ukraine, the glide bomb sorties will be very challenging to intercept regularly. When close to the frontlines, Ukrainian pilots will have to fly them at very low altitudes to avoid being detected and shot down by layered Russian short-range SA-15 ‘Tor M1/2’, medium-range SA-11/17/27 ‘Buk’ and long-range SA-21 ‘Growler’ and SA-23 ‘Gladiator\Giant’ SAM systems. As a result, the AIM-120C AMRAAM air-to-air missiles carried by the F-16 and Gripen C, and the shorter-range MICA IR/RF missiles carried by Mirage 2000-5F, will struggle to reach Russian fighters at high altitudes and high speeds 60–70 km behind the lines. This is because at such low altitudes, the missiles start out in dense air with a lot of aerodynamic drag and must climb against gravity to reach the altitudes where their targets are. As a result, by the time their rocket motors burn out after the first few seconds of flight, they have not gained nearly as much speed or altitude as if they were launched from a fighter flying in the thin air at high altitudes and at supersonic speeds, and so only have a comparatively short effective range. Only the European Meteor missile is likely to have the practical range required, and of the three fighter options now publicly discussed for Ukraine, only the Gripen C can carry and launch it.

Therefore, for now, attacks on Russian airbases are Ukraine’s best way to limit the damage that the VKS can do to its forces on the frontlines. Most Russian forward-deployment airfields lack hardened aircraft shelters to protect parked aircraft from even relatively light incoming weapons. This is why Ukraine’s innovative OWA drones have been able to have several notable successes in damaging and even destroying Russian fighters, bombers and AWACS aircraft despite their often fragile appearance, light warheads and slow speeds. Ukraine also conducted successful strikes with a new tranche of US-supplied MGM-140 ATACMS ballistic missiles on air defence systems and parked aircraft at Russian airbases in occupied Crimea in April. Taken together, Kyiv appears to be pursuing a clear strategy to force the VKS to either vacate its bases within several hundred miles of Ukraine’s borders or dedicate an inordinate quantity of air defence systems to defending them. The former would reduce the functional strike weight of glide bombs and other weapons that the VKS can deliver by forcing Russian jets to transit significantly further, burning through more fuel and aircrew and airframe fatigue and reducing overall sortie rates. The latter would denude other parts of the frontline and the Russian interior of adequate SAM cover, allowing greater operational freedom for Ukraine’s OWA drones, rocket artillery, observation UAVs and possibly F-16 and other fighters when they arrive.

Russian Oil Tanker Does Secret Cargo Switch Near Singapore to Dodge US Sanctions

The first Russian oil tanker attempting to deliver crude while under US sanctions made a secret cargo transfer onto another ship, a sign of the lengths to which Moscow is going to undermine the effectiveness of American restrictions on its fleet.
The SCF Primorye was sanctioned by the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control in October, after which it didn’t load oil again for about six months. But in late April, the tanker went to Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk and collected a cargo of Urals crude before embarking on a 7,500-mile voyage to a location about 70 miles east of Singapore.
Russia has shipped about 3.4 million barrels a day of crude so far this year, valued at about $37 billion at the point of export, and working around western sanctions has been part of that. Oil proceeds to the state budget increased almost 50% in May from a year ago, as its crude prices rose and the nation adapted to the measures. Nevertheless, the contorted logistics that the SCF Primorye is involved in show that there are impediments to the trade.
Not long after it arrived east of Singapore, the 900-foot tanker vanished from the automatic identification system, or AIS, where commercial vessels broadcast their locations and destinations for safety reasons. AIS can be turned off by a ship’s crew.
However, after it disappeared, satellite imagery shows that the ship switched its cargo onto another vessel, the Ocean Hermana, on June 3. The secretive transfer would in theory help whoever is buying the oil to distance themselves from dealing with a sanctioned ship and any risk of further actions from the Treasury. Identifying the receiving ship makes it hard to hide the origin of the cargo.
SCF Primorye, which was holding about 1 million barrels of oil, is owned by Russian state oil tanker company Sovcomflot PJSC. The company declined to comment.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Client Challenge

The US Treasury is expected to roll out a big expansion of its secondary sanctions programme on Russia this week, treating any foreign financial institution transacting with a sanctioned Russian entity as though it is working directly with the Kremlin’s military-industrial base.
The measure will widen a White House executive order that in December gave the Treasury the authority to apply secondary sanctions on foreign financial institutions if they were found to have acted for, or on behalf of, any of about 1,200 entities deemed by the US government to be part of Russia’s defence sector.
After this week’s change, that number will rise to more than 4,500 and will encompass almost all Russian entities that have already been sanctioned, even if this was for reasons other than direct support of the war in Ukraine. They include banks such as Sberbank and VTB, the country’s largest lenders.
The expansion of secondary sanctions reflects the US view that the Kremlin has transformed Russia into a war economy two years after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
US officials believe that as a result of December’s executive order banks in third countries have become reluctant to deal with high-risk Russian customers.
The flow of war-related imports into Russia declined at the start of 2024 as financing cross-border trade in those goods became riskier, even for banks with no links to the US.
“Secondary sanctions are intended to expand the US’s ability to pursue circumvention by actors who do not have any legal nexus with the US. It means the US can, in effect, enforce its sanctions on people who aren’t otherwise subject to US law,” said Emily Kilcrease, a trade and sanctions expert at the Center for a New American Security think-tank.
Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed statist technocrat Andrei Belousov defence minister last month in a surprise shake-up of his security bosses. The Kremlin has said the reshuffle was aimed at making Russia’s record Rbs10.8tn ($120bn) defence spending more efficient and less vulnerable to western sanctions.
By broadening the scope of secondary sanctions, the US will threaten financial institutions in other countries doing business with Russia — particularly China, which has drawn closer to Moscow since the invasion of Ukraine.

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"[Austria's] Raiffeisen is the biggest Western bank in Russia, but not the only one. The combined profits of the five eu banks with the largest Russian operations have tripled, reaching nearly €3bn in 2023. " https://economist.com/finance-and-e...pean-banks-are-making-heady-profits-in-russia

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New military aid from Germany! Germany's Minister of Defence Boris Pistorius announced that Germany will deliver 100 Patriot missiles as well as hundreds of strike drones and precision rifles to #Ukraine.

Regarding the precision rifles, this may be the contract for 100 precision rifles that was roughly announced two weeks ago. I will provide more details on the new package from Germany as soon as possible.

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️The Netherlands has made 1 AN/MPQ-53/65 radar and three Patriot launchers available for the completion of a Patriot battery for Ukraine, Prime Minister Mark Rutte announced.

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Russia continues adding barriers around the Crimean bridge to defend against Ukraine’s naval drones in the Kerch Strait.

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Video of a Ukrainian Switchblade-600 loitering munition strike on a Russian BUK-M1-2 9A310M1-2 TELAR.

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Russian Pantsir-S1 short-range air defense system was recently destroyed reportedly as a result of Ukrainian strikes with GMLRS rockets in Luhansk Oblast of Ukraine.

Interestingly, the source claimed that the vehicle belonged to the 1st Air Defense and Missile Defense Army, intended for the defense of Moscow.

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A Ukrainian SU-25 Attack Aircraft stationed at Dolgintsevo Airbase near Kryvyi Rih was destroyed by a Russian ZALA Lancet Loitering Munition, which caused a fuel fire after impact.

It also seems that there is a Radar/Air Defence Position near it.

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