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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (3 Viewers)

Leeroy Jenkins said:
I just cannot believe in 2022 we are still having countries cross boarders in order to take land.  This feels so antiquated and out of place.  The atrocities against civilians is barbaric.  I thought we were better than this overall now.
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The problem is that human beings, even with our supposed sophistication and progressive mindset, will always have the capacity for evil in their hearts. 

 
I saw on a USA Today article that Russia has lost 19,500 troops, and thousands of vehicles. In almost any other military in history, that would cost the commanders their lives on principle, especially since they’re still losing the war they started!

 
They have little choice with heavy equipment.  It is mud season there.  A few weeks ago when the Russian equipment was getting stuck it was considered early for the famous Ukrainian "mud" season.  This is the start of their typical mud season for the next few weeks...from what I have read, heavy equipment will not do well off road in most north and east areas.  Hopefully it will be a rinse and repeat of the Russian failures in the north.

 
Ksquared said:
They have little choice with heavy equipment.  It is mud season there.  A few weeks ago when the Russian equipment was getting stuck it was considered early for the famous Ukrainian "mud" season.  This is the start of their typical mud season for the next few weeks...from what I have read, heavy equipment will not do well off road in most north and east areas.  Hopefully it will be a rinse and repeat of the Russian failures in the north.
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Given the Russians are apparently not learning from their mistakes, this likely won’t end well for them here either.

 
Ksquared said:
They have little choice with heavy equipment.  It is mud season there.  A few weeks ago when the Russian equipment was getting stuck it was considered early for the famous Ukrainian "mud" season.  This is the start of their typical mud season for the next few weeks...from what I have read, heavy equipment will not do well off road in most north and east areas.  Hopefully it will be a rinse and repeat of the Russian failures in the north.
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rain rain rain

this might not be as valuable as it was for kyiv because russia has control of so much of the donbass, so it will be defending more than attacking. i think. guessing their battle plans seems a fool's errand. 

 
DocHolliday said:
Please no.  
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I hope no, also... for many many many reasons. 
 

NATO is effectively obligated to step in if true. 
 

The good news is I'm not sure who would side with Russia if this did go down.  Optics would be so horrible 

 
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[icon] said:
Strong rumors of Russian use of chemical weapons in  Mariupol.... if so that's pretty much kickoff for WWIII

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/04/11/pentagon-monitoring-reports-of-possible-russian-chemical-weapons-attack-in-mariupol.html

https://www.facebook.com/oafnationactual/posts/pfbid0xqE2CgtoaTuKfL6P5CxaGtpdyC84ybKgm9mG1GqDftc27NDor3RREV32Sct3MpSrl
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Saw this in the FFA thread, so Vlad has chosen to end Russia. Shame he’s chosen to take a bunch of innocent people with him.

 
GroveDiesel said:
Regarding your 2nd sentence, I don’t believe that for one second. Russia’s plan was absolutely to take all of Ukraine. It was only when they failed that they re-calibrated and pretended that was their real plan so that they could save face at home.
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You don't believe for a second that the war has always been about the Donbass? Well, it is the region that has been at war for 8 years. It is the region that had Russia's primary focus to start the war. It is the region Russia established quick control of with brutal force. It is the region where Putin said his "special military operation" had to happen.

It is also the region that has a high percentage of that wheat we keep hearing feeds the world. And most of Ukraine's gas reserves. And access to the black sea oil reserves. And the ports Putin snatched to ship those resources and for naval purposes. And the all important land bridge to Crimea. Control of this region (and it is expanded a bit from just the Donbas) cripples Ukraine. The winner of the battle for Donbass, the biggest battle in Europe since 1945, wins this war. 

Sure Putin wants to destroy the government and reunite Ukraine to Russia. He'd like that for Georgia, Moldova, the baltics, all the old soviet bloc states. And he is especially obsessed with Ukraine for decades. But he takes bites out of these places. He took Abkhazia and S Ossetia from Georgia. He grabbed Chechnya. He took Transnistria from Moldova. Crimea from Ukraine. It is his MO and this war is about the Donbass and that land bridge to Crimea. 

 
Kal El said:
Saw this in the FFA thread, so Vlad has chosen to end Russia. Shame he’s chosen to take a bunch of innocent people with him.
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Seems he chose to end Russia when he invaded. I watched an hour + youtube early this morning that said up to 5000 troops are holed up in something called Mariupol Steel. Russia should have taken the city by now, but these troops cannot be rooted out. The conclusion was chemical weapons were probably on the table since no matter how much they destroy the city with conventional weapons, they cannot take it. Zelensky said 10s of thousands of Ukrainians are dead there. So horrible. 

Is this how Russia ends

good read

 
Kal El said:
Talk about a brain fart💨, I totally thought I was in the other one. At any rate, USA Today has the story, though it hasn’t been confirmed yet.
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I think this is a testament to how surprisingly good and mostly free of nonsense that other thread has been.

 
McBokonon said:
I think this is a testament to how surprisingly good and mostly free of nonsense that other thread has been.
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It really has been surprisingly nice. I mostly avoid other topics there(that’s because I don’t need a vacation yet), but that thread gets updated fairly regularly.

 
Azov Steel, not Mariupol Steel

Here on the TV, the guy tells that there might still be about 4000 solders defending the Azov Steel Factory in Mariupol. It would be very difficult to defeat them unless they would use some kind of chemical weapon
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Allegedly Russian tv rather casually admits to use of Chemical weapons

had to translate that tweet

Russia used chemical weapons in Mariupol. Today, Kremlin-controlled militants openly announced the chemical attack on Russian television. And they carried out their threats. You can already feel free to change Z to a real swastika. Openly switched to the methods of the Nazis
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Chaos Commish said:
You don't believe for a second that the war has always been about the Donbass? Well, it is the region that has been at war for 8 years. It is the region that had Russia's primary focus to start the war. It is the region Russia established quick control of with brutal force. It is the region where Putin said his "special military operation" had to happen.

It is also the region that has a high percentage of that wheat we keep hearing feeds the world. And most of Ukraine's gas reserves. And access to the black sea oil reserves. And the ports Putin snatched to ship those resources and for naval purposes. And the all important land bridge to Crimea. Control of this region (and it is expanded a bit from just the Donbas) cripples Ukraine. The winner of the battle for Donbass, the biggest battle in Europe since 1945, wins this war. 

Sure Putin wants to destroy the government and reunite Ukraine to Russia. He'd like that for Georgia, Moldova, the baltics, all the old soviet bloc states. And he is especially obsessed with Ukraine for decades. But he takes bites out of these places. He took Abkhazia and S Ossetia from Georgia. He grabbed Chechnya. He took Transnistria from Moldova. Crimea from Ukraine. It is his MO and this war is about the Donbass and that land bridge to Crimea. 
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I haven't been like 100% invested in this story as it's so depressing, but still from what I can gather Russia doesn't want to get the reserves as much as the pipeline leases and ports.  

 
Kal El said:
Saw this in the FFA thread, so Vlad has chosen to end Russia. Shame he’s chosen to take a bunch of innocent people with him.
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Well Vlad has not backed down.  Yesterday he said this war for Russia was the right and "noble" thing to do, and that they had no choice.  So this is far from over.

 
Da Guru said:
Well Vlad has not backed down.  Yesterday he said this war for Russia was the right and "noble" thing to do, and that they had no choice.  So this is far from over.
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In a way, he is right. Russia had no choice, because of the actions of their dictator. I’m still puzzled as to why he wants to destroy his own nation, that doesn’t make any sense to me. Of course, I’m fairly well grounded in reality.

 
Kal El said:
In a way, he is right. Russia had no choice, because of the actions of their dictator. I’m still puzzled as to why he wants to destroy his own nation, that doesn’t make any sense to me. Of course, I’m fairly well grounded in reality.
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Makes no sense to anyone but Vlad. 

In real life not Ukraine or any other nation was ever going to attack or invade Russia.  And now what happens if Sweden and Finland join NATO?  Which I think they will after the Ukraine invasion.

 
Da Guru said:
Makes no sense to anyone but Vlad. 

In real life not Ukraine or any other nation was ever going to attack or invade Russia.  And now what happens if Sweden and Finland join NATO?  Which I think they will after the Ukraine invasion.
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Well, we’ve seen that Russia’s military is actually pretty terrible at everything war related, but nobody wants to invade Russia, because it’s a dumphole. As for Finland and Sweden joining, Russia isn’t going to do anything about it.

 
Kal El said:
Well, we’ve seen that Russia’s military is actually pretty terrible at everything war related, but nobody wants to invade Russia, because it’s a dumphole. As for Finland and Sweden joining, Russia isn’t going to do anything about it.
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If Russia was so concerned about it`s own safety why not just join NATO? Then it would be one big "Happy family" with no security concerns. 😉

 
Da Guru said:
If Russia was so concerned about it`s own safety why not just join NATO? Then it would be one big "Happy family" with no security concerns. 😉
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That was actually an idea that was gaining traction in the later 90s, I believe. Then Vlad got in and got rid of that idea, and now he’s got no friends in high places. Even China is mostly steering clear of Russia and their antics at this point.

 
Chaos Commish said:
Crazy BBC audio documentary - The Puppet Master

I've become fascinated with modern Russian history. I'd never heard of Vladislav Surkov, but that's how he wants it, and he's in your head.
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I got introduced to him a few years back following Gary Kasparov, I think. Kasparov’s book “Winter is Coming” is excellent. I also saw him speak as part of a McCain Institute thing here awhile back. It was an interesting mix of attendees: People like me who were interested in his take on Russian interference in our elections, among other things, and a bunch of people who were there because his foreign policy takes align with neocon-think sometimes.

 All of that aside, he’s had Putin’s number for years: not a12D chess player, but more or less a gangster who just keeps pushing boundaries because the West acts like he has pocket Aces but he really has 2-7 off.

 
McBokonon said:
 All of that aside, he’s had Putin’s number for years: not a12D chess player, but more or less a gangster who just keeps pushing boundaries because the West acts like he has pocket Aces but he really has 2-7 off.
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Give that a listen. You will enjoy it. When he starts going gangster bbc plays The Godfather theme... :)

 
Kal El said:
That was actually an idea that was gaining traction in the later 90s, I believe. Then Vlad got in and got rid of that idea, and now he’s got no friends in high places. Even China is mostly steering clear of Russia and their antics at this point.
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In his Feb 21 or 24 speech Putin mentions this. He says, paraphrasing, "I will tell you something I never told you before. There was a time I asked Bill Clinton if Russia could ever join Nato. I can tell you, it was never an option for us."

Um, speaking of Russian history if any of you are nerding out like me... I think those two speeches that launched this war are required reading/listening. Feb. 21 took him an hour and concluded with him recognizing Donetsk and Luhansk as indepent states in Donbass. Took me two hours to read it because I kept vetting his historical claims. Feb 24 is straightforward Russian history, some wild propaganda and the declaration of a special military operation. 

Feb 21 Transcript

Feb 24 Youtube

Spend some time with Vladdy and you'll see how well his puppet master trained him.

 
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