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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Jayrod
- Start date
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
I didn't say it was wrong, just incomplete, which makes it kind of false. What's predominantly reported is true, I'm sure. But much if what isn't reported (with any priority) is probably true too, it changes the story, significantly I think.
The video you linked goes to my point. I even laughed through some of it. That is the incomplete western narrative. A heavy focus on Russia's failure in the north and a discussion of the atrocities. I explained the pattern and you provided it. No mention of Russia's successful and swift occupation of the southern coast and a couple key ports (Kherson and Berdyansk). The quick defeat of Ukraine's navy. The control of the Donbass. Putin has his land bridge atm. It boasts of Ukraine's ability to fly 5 sorties a day without mentioning Russia has flown between 100 and 300 a day.
Also something I've been wondering about. End of March there were peace talks in Turkey. Ukraine suggested a 10 pt plan.
Item 1. Ukraine will not join Nato or any other bloc and will be a neutral country in exchange for security guarantees (3-10).
Item 2. Ukraine's security guarantees will not include Crimea and defined borders within the Donbas.
What? In late March, by not including them, Zelensky conceded Crimea and parts of the Donbas for peace and security. If Ukraine was winning so easily, why would he offer this? It didn't matter. Putin was a fast and hard no. If Russia was losing, why would Putin not take this and call it a victory? It was close to what he claimed was Russia's objective in the Feb 24 speech. It was after Putin's no when Zelensky said fine, we'll fight you for every last inch. That statement got some play, but not in the correct context.
If that video is correct and Russia has the 2nd best military in Ukraine, why does the west need to provide 50+ billion in support? The video is wrong, the narrative incomplete. 50+ billion is more than Russia's entire pillaged defense budget. The video uses a tiny sample of anecdotes from the fog of war and projects them to the entirety of Russia's military while ignoring that map we see every day showing Russia's land bridge in red. It isn't just Luhansk and Donetsk (The Donbas) painted red, it's also the Kherson oblast, which Russia is now considering as a third independent state.
Why this fresh round of 33 billion if Russia is such an easy out? My guess is the intelligence community has had a heart to heart with high end military brains and concluded this is what's required to send Russia packing understanding a big chunk is needed for humanitarian aid. It also gives Putin rationale for a General Mobilization with "proof" Russia is at war with the US. So in time when this money gets in the game this thing is obviously going to escalate in huge ways. Then Russia gets pushed back inside its borders. Ukraine cannot do it without heaps of help. Then what? Putin gives up? Maybe, hopefully. He did say in the Feb 24 speech they would face severe sanctions and a Nato backed military and they would accept the outcome. Let's hope. I'm doubtful.
JaxBill
Footballguy
Good point about Zelensky but I think it's folly to think Putin would act rationally.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
12.7M people displaced since the invasion began.
90% of those impacted are women & children.
*****************
The EU has imported €43 billion worth fossil fuels from Russia since the invasion of Ukraine.
90% of those impacted are women & children.
*****************
The EU has imported €43 billion worth fossil fuels from Russia since the invasion of Ukraine.
JaxBill
Footballguy
@RyanMaue: Biden asked for $33B in weapons and assistance to Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Europe will buy $6B worth of oil, gas, and coal from Russia per week until further notice.
Something has got to give.
culdeus
Footballguy
This is a good first test to what a world looks like where climate action is a must, not something for your kids to deal with.
We got a little taste of that with Covid, turns out people in the US really like to have fresh enchiladas and will die for the privilege.
I don't see the EU doing anything but letting kids go off to a holocaust, because it's too hard to do anything else.
JaxBill
Footballguy
I wonder if Germany and other European countries revisit or delay plans to shutter nuclear plants. I know green activists won't like it but it's a lower carbon option than fossil fuels.
culdeus
Footballguy
Cancelling or shutting down nuclear plants where there is no seismic activity is just a disaster for the planet and the economies involved. I think even the most hard core green side sees that.
JaxBill
Footballguy
@MrKovalenko: UPDATE - Yesterday's #Ukraine attack on the Rus. HQ in #Izium was designed to liquidate the high-value target - chief of Gen. Staff of RAF Gen. Valeriy Gerasimov. The Kremlin sent him to get a victory for the May 9 parade. Gerasimov was close to the blast but wounded. [Thread
] https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1520757617437683713/photo/1
@MrKovalenko: [2] Yesterday, at the moment of the #Ukraine attack more than 40 high-ranked Russian military officers gathered in the HQs in #Izium. Reportedly, up to 20 of them are confirmed killed incl. Gen. Andrey Simonov, a commander of electronic warfare forces of the West district. https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1520759831589797890/photo/1
@MrKovalenko: [3] Gen. Gerasymov suffered a minor shrapnel wound to his right shin without breaking a bone. Source: former minister of Internal Affairs of #Ukraine Arsen Avakov via his sources. https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1520840602895753216/photo/1
] https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1520757617437683713/photo/1@MrKovalenko: [2] Yesterday, at the moment of the #Ukraine attack more than 40 high-ranked Russian military officers gathered in the HQs in #Izium. Reportedly, up to 20 of them are confirmed killed incl. Gen. Andrey Simonov, a commander of electronic warfare forces of the West district. https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1520759831589797890/photo/1
@MrKovalenko: [3] Gen. Gerasymov suffered a minor shrapnel wound to his right shin without breaking a bone. Source: former minister of Internal Affairs of #Ukraine Arsen Avakov via his sources. https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1520840602895753216/photo/1
beer 30
Footballguy
If you haven't been reading between the lines so far, this didn't happen because of Ukrainian intelligence. At best, the US handed this to them, at worst, it was the Brits. Things are going to get interesting very soon. Russia knows this, their response to it will be telling.@MrKovalenko: UPDATE - Yesterday's #Ukraine attack on the Rus. HQ in #Izium was designed to liquidate the high-value target - chief of Gen. Staff of RAF Gen. Valeriy Gerasimov. The Kremlin sent him to get a victory for the May 9 parade. Gerasimov was close to the blast but wounded. [Thread
@MrKovalenko: [2] Yesterday, at the moment of the #Ukraine attack more than 40 high-ranked Russian military officers gathered in the HQs in #Izium. Reportedly, up to 20 of them are confirmed killed incl. Gen. Andrey Simonov, a commander of electronic warfare forces of the West district. https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1520759831589797890/photo/1
@MrKovalenko: [3] Gen. Gerasymov suffered a minor shrapnel wound to his right shin without breaking a bone. Source: former minister of Internal Affairs of #Ukraine Arsen Avakov via his sources. https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1520840602895753216/photo/1
beer 30
Footballguy
I mean, we’re not fighting, but we are showing them where to have the best chance at winning.
JaxBill
Footballguy
That would not surprise me. But here's the thing, I'm seeing tweets tracking Russian MILITARY planes. This isn't a coaching search in college football, cmon.
i.e. This is supposedly the plane Gerasimov left on.
@Gerjon_: Russia - National Guard Tupolev Tu-154M reg.
RF-85136 seems to be descending for Moscow. Flight origin seems to be Belgorod, close to Eastern 
Ukraine. https://twitter.com/Gerjon_/status/1520739368285184000/photo/1
beer 30
Footballguy
I don't doubt it, it's been proven throughout that the Russians aren't helping themselves in this war. Stupid tactics, communications based on decades old technology, strategies from WWII and of course the war crimes being committed. They are not endearing themselves to the local populace.That would not surprise me. But here's the thing, I'm seeing tweets tracking Russian MILITARY planes. This isn't a coaching search in college football, cmon.
i.e. This is supposedly the plane Gerasimov left on.
@Gerjon_: Russia - National Guard Tupolev Tu-154M reg.
Apparently the report about Gerasimov being wounded wasn’t true.@MrKovalenko: UPDATE - Yesterday's #Ukraine attack on the Rus. HQ in #Izium was designed to liquidate the high-value target - chief of Gen. Staff of RAF Gen. Valeriy Gerasimov. The Kremlin sent him to get a victory for the May 9 parade. Gerasimov was close to the blast but wounded. [Thread
@MrKovalenko: [2] Yesterday, at the moment of the #Ukraine attack more than 40 high-ranked Russian military officers gathered in the HQs in #Izium. Reportedly, up to 20 of them are confirmed killed incl. Gen. Andrey Simonov, a commander of electronic warfare forces of the West district. https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1520759831589797890/photo/1
@MrKovalenko: [3] Gen. Gerasymov suffered a minor shrapnel wound to his right shin without breaking a bone. Source: former minister of Internal Affairs of #Ukraine Arsen Avakov via his sources. https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/status/1520840602895753216/photo/1
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
Since last summer we knew Russia was invading and began planning and training for Ukraine's defense in dozens of different areas. I can't emphasize how impressive our intel is or how successful the actionable application has been.
On that note, I shared Trent Telenko's beat down of how bad our intel is with the retired friend I have here with 36 years working for the DoD in weapons development. He dunked hard on Trent but concluded he thinks exactly what we want him to think.
It was a pretty good weekend for the good guys.
The Kerminator
Footballguy
The intel on everything about the Russians has been nothing short of remarkable. And kudos to the Ukranians for acting on it so quickly.Chaos Commish said:
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
Since this started I have seen speculation that Putin's puffy face was indicative of chemotherapy. Today I wake up to numerous reports that he has scheduled surgery for abdominal cancer.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
From what is coming from them, I'm considering smoking cigarettes again.beer 30 said:
beer 30
Footballguy
Bah, you'll have plenty of time to grab a last smoke. Don't waste jumping off the wagon on idle threats.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Lot's of speculation for a while of bad health. Now these reports. I wonder if there is a window for those within the Russian power structure who are not happy about all this to make a move.
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
i read somewhere medvedev got replaced as prime minister because putin wanted someone in the #2 position who was more like him. guys name is mishustin and he is no improvement.
it's an interesting story. putin changed the constitution so he could stay in power into his 80s. then for legal reasons the entire duma had to retire and be replaced. russian government is very strange.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Putin moves from PM to President and back due to their constitution all the while always being the real power.
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
culdeus
Footballguy
As reddit has pointed out the numerous reports all lead back to some random person on telegram.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
The Russians deployed their T-90M with a lot of internal propaganda... a few days later it has been confirmed that they lost one.
tri-man 47
Footballguy
True or not, it brings to mind this image of President Lyndon Johnson showing his scar after gall bladder surgery.
JaxBill
Footballguy
Looks more likely that last night's rumor is true.
@Independent:
Russian frigate Admiral Makarov ‘on fire after being hit by Ukrainian missile’ https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ship-admiral-makarov-ukraine-war-b2073007.html?utm_content=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Main&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1651834948
@Independent:
Russian frigate Admiral Makarov ‘on fire after being hit by Ukrainian missile’ https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ship-admiral-makarov-ukraine-war-b2073007.html?utm_content=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Main&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1651834948
beer 30
Footballguy
There's a supposed video of it getting blow'd up out there. Just don't have time to search all over the Twitter's this morning
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
I really don't think that the USA should be advertising that we gave Ukraine intelligence that directly resulted in the sinking of the Russian warship. Everyone KNOWS that is what is happening, but flaunting it is just going to prolong and escalate the war.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
it's not clear who was the source Thursday
Pentagon walked it back today - "We share intel. The intelligence that we provide to Ukraine is legal. It’s lawful, it’s legitimate and it’s limited. Ukraine combines information that we and other partners provide with the intel that they themselves are gathering and then they make their own decisions and they take their own actions." American agencies “do not provide intelligence on the location of senior military leaders on the battlefield or participate in the targeting decisions of the Ukrainian military.”
https://www.c4isrnet.com/smr/geoint/2022/05/06/us-gave-intel-before-ukraine-sank-russian-warship-says-official/#:~:text=WASHINGTON — The U.S. says it,direct role in the strike.
Could have been an intentional leak, knowing they would refute with a diplomatic statement. They play subtle head games like that with each other all the time.
***************
A few years ago we were watching a force of about 500 Syria. Looked like they were going to attack 30 of our Special Forces. We thought it was Wagner Group, but we couldn't just take them out. So DoD (Sec Mattis) called up their Russian counterpart: "Picking up a lot of chatter from this group, speaking in Russian. Inside Syria and a force is gathering. They're at this location over by the Euphrates. Your guys? "
No.
"OK cool, thanks, we're about to obliterate them and didn't want any misunderstanding."
Battle of Khasham
Wailed on them with air support. Waves of F-22 fighters, F-15E strike fighters, AH-64 Apache attack helicopters, AC-130 gunships, B-52 bombers, MQ-9 Reaper drones, and heavy Marine artillery. Casualties were around 213 to 1 (SDF guy was injured, our guys were unscathed.)
I don't think the Russians are anxious to amp things up with us. They like to bluster and threaten the world with nuclear holocaust on the regular, but it's only rhetoric. If they honestly thought escalation were a possibility DoD would back off and let State open up lines of communication.
Right now the only troops we are acknowledging in Ukraine are 160 trainers from a Florida National Guard unit. The Green Berets vacated in February and went to German. It's unlikely our current levels of support are enough to broaden the conflict.
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
There's been a few interesting articles about this intel transparency. It's deliberate, a strategy. I guess we should trust they know what they're doing, but I agree, this and several other things seem to be pushing for escalation, not peace.
We all heard stories of both us and the Soviets trying to outspy each other back in the Cold War, and they likely already know. More importantly, there’s nothing they’re going to do about it, not with Ukraine giving them all they can handle, and us seeing everything they’re going to try.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Reports of a Russian frigate has been hit and suffered major damage. The Admiral Grigorovich class frigate Admiral Makarov, which is one of the most modern ships in their fleet.
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BobbyLayne
Footballguy
#thatsashame
Italy
has seized Vladimir Putin’s $989M yacht
Italy
has seized Vladimir Putin’s $989M yachtI don’t think I’ve ever enjoyed privateering as much as I am now.#thatsashame
Italy
If I were a military commander, and my logistics looked like this, I’d demote everyone in my logistics chain of command and start from scratch.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
It seems the massive amounts of money that the US spends on training, maintenance and logistical support is as much of an edge on the battlefield as our technological superiority is. No country comes close to the power projection (logistics) that we possess.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
“Gentlemen, the officer who doesn’t know his communications and supply as well his tactics is totally useless.”
~ General George S. Patton
1) we fight like we train
anyone who does joint exercises with Russia says they half ### their way through war games
2) we have tremendous NCO leadership
that’s the glue that holds it all together
the Russian military lacks the ethos of the former, and have no tradition of the latter
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Yeah, but they can conscript and propaganda like no one else. OK, maybe China and North Korea got them beat there too ...
The mystique that surrounded the old Soviet army, the one that made such great villains in so many action movies, has been completely erased by the knowledge that the Russian military is a cavalcade of chucklenuts who can’t fight any decently equipped army, and certainly won’t be able to keep up with one thanks to their sorry excuse for a supply division.
Chadstroma
Footballguy
The question is.... was the Soviet Red Army ever an equal to us or was it just as inept and broken as today's Russian military.
Rustoleum
Footballguy
My hypothesis is they were much closer to equal 50 or 60 years ago, but they could not keep up economically, and their capabilities have steadily eroded. They focus on the flashy stuff (tanks, new jets, hypersonic missiles) for intimidation, but have no infrastructure to support those units, and now I’m starting to understand all the disclaimers about “not exporting” electronics when you buy them, given their demonstrated shortcomings in communications abilities and manufacturing.
The tech gap has seemingly widened so much their sheer weight in numbers of tanks, etc. counts less and less each day.
JaxBill
Footballguy
The other issue is that the Russian army DOES have a tradition of caring little about casualties. Going back to WWII, they didn't care how many Russian soldiers died, theyll just call up more. Their field medicine is almost nonexistent. Their tank design does little to protect the crew.
They got away with this in the 1940s when Russian birth rates were much much higher. Since the 1970s, Russian birth rates are dropping. Russia actually has an aging population, even more so than the US
(My personal opinion is that the lack of care about enlisted casualties and the absence of capable NCOs is a chicken and egg thing)
JaxBill
Footballguy
@TheStudyofWar: The #Ukrainian counteroffensive northeast of #Kharkiv is making significant progress and will likely advance to the #Russian border in the coming days or weeks.
Read the latest report from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats: https://isw.pub/RusCampaignMay7 https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1523095533971283968/photo/1
Read the latest report from @TheStudyofWar and @criticalthreats: https://isw.pub/RusCampaignMay7 https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1523095533971283968/photo/1
3 days, huh Vlad? You thought you were going to just waltz in and take over Ukraine in 3 days. It’s now Day 69(nice), and your army is getting crushed by a numerically inferior foe, and it’s happening for all the world to see.
Jobber
Footballguy
Excellent post. Adding to their birth rate comment, they have experienced a massive brain drain since the war as well. Coupled with low birth rate, and tens of thousands of young men dying will utterly destroy Russian prospects of recovery for generations.
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