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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (4 Viewers)

Chadstroma said:
I mean... my first thought was that this had to be manned by Syrians but then looking at what has happened in Ukraine, I was caught myself... it is hard to reconcile 40 something years of belief that the Russians were peer or near peer to us to the complete ridiculous nature of their true capability as shown in Ukraine. I am continuously impressed with their incompetence. 
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So with all this revelation regarding the incompetence of the Russian military here's the thing I keep seeing. Plenty of armchair generals online saying "the structure of the Russian military has been this way for years, terrible NCO's, poorly trained conscripts, upper command fearful to make a decision" and it goes on and on. Seems there was plenty of knowledge on the street that while we hadn't actually seen it action, that the Russian's would perform poorly in a shooting war. I realize it hasn't always been this way but say the last decade or so it seems a lot of folks had an idea.

That makes the last 40-50-60 years of putting Russia #1 on the dart board and gearing up to confront them even more egregious IMO. What a waste of time & treasure.

 
beer 30 said:
So with all this revelation regarding the incompetence of the Russian military here's the thing I keep seeing. Plenty of armchair generals online saying "the structure of the Russian military has been this way for years, terrible NCO's, poorly trained conscripts, upper command fearful to make a decision" and it goes on and on. Seems there was plenty of knowledge on the street that while we hadn't actually seen it action, that the Russian's would perform poorly in a shooting war. I realize it hasn't always been this way but say the last decade or so it seems a lot of folks had an idea.

That makes the last 40-50-60 years of putting Russia #1 on the dart board and gearing up to confront them even more egregious IMO. What a waste of time & treasure.
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From what I've read, the infrastructure during the USSR years was very different, supported by a lot more in military spending and by a country with a much bigger population.  I don't think this invasion is necessarily an indictment on Soviet military capabilities. 

 
thecatch said:
From what I've read, the infrastructure during the USSR years was very different, supported by a lot more in military spending and by a country with a much bigger population.  I don't think this invasion is necessarily an indictment on Soviet military capabilities. 
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I acknowledge that the Russia of the past is certainly not the Russia we see on display now but I'm curious why you don't think what we are seeing in Ukraine is representative of Soviet military capabilities?

 
beer 30 said:
I acknowledge that the Russia of the past is certainly not the Russia we see on display now but I'm curious why you don't think what we are seeing in Ukraine is representative of Soviet military capabilities?
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Well, like I said, if you look up Russian military spending versus what it was in the USSR years, the current spend is a small fraction of what it used to be.  I imagine that must have significant consequences for Russia's logistical readiness now versus during the Cold War (though perhaps it was always a trainwreck, just on a much bigger scale - I'm not well-read enough on the subject to know).  My comment about their military infrastructure was prompted by an episode of a podcast I recently listened to with Russian military analyst Michael Kofman (the podcast is called War on the Rocks), in which he said the Soviet system for raising and training new recruits was significantly more efficient and had greater capacity than Russia's current system.  When you consider the USSR's population in 1990 was about 288 million (versus about 145 million for Russia now), the USSR clearly had the capacity to train and arm a much larger army to threaten Europe with than Russia could ever dream of doing now.  

 
thecatch said:
Well, like I said, if you look up Russian military spending versus what it was in the USSR years, the current spend is a small fraction of what it used to be.  I imagine that must have significant consequences for Russia's logistical readiness now versus during the Cold War (though perhaps it was always a trainwreck, just on a much bigger scale - I'm not well-read enough on the subject to know).  My comment about their military infrastructure was prompted by an episode of a podcast I recently listened to with Russian military analyst Michael Kofman (the podcast is called War on the Rocks), in which he said the Soviet system for raising and training new recruits was significantly more efficient and had greater capacity than Russia's current system.  When you consider the USSR's population in 1990 was about 288 million (versus about 145 million for Russia now), the USSR clearly had the capacity to train and arm a much larger army to threaten Europe with than Russia could ever dream of doing now.  
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The Russia of today is not the Soviet Union military of yesterday but at the same time it isn't like there is no direct connection and that it doesn't inform us of how the Soviets might have fared in a conventional war with the West. 

 
Countries are catching on to the fact that a Russian blockade of Ukrainian ports could lead to famine in other parts of the world. 

I've read that both sides have laid copious number of mines that even if Russian warships left tomorrow,  it would take awhile for commercial vessels to navigate.

(IMHO that's why the US should be cranking out LESS ethanol from corn not more, but that's probably a political forum topic)

@FCDOGovUK: The Kremlin is making food a weapon in its illegal war.

Countries around the world are suffering as a result.

Russia must immediately end its blockade of Ukrainian ports which is obstructing the flow of essential goods.

#StandWithUkraine https://twitter.com/FCDOGovUK/status/1527548593455910914/photo/1

 
Chadstroma said:
The Russia of today is not the Soviet Union military of yesterday but at the same time it isn't like there is no direct connection and that it doesn't inform us of how the Soviets might have fared in a conventional war with the West. 
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What’s the direct connection? (I mean specifically, beyond the fact that Russia is involved in both.)

 
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GroveDiesel said:
This just seems so pointless to say. Russia doesn’t care. They’re not going to stop their blockade. Bringing attention to it and it’s impacts is important, but it’s totally unrealistic to think it will change.
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I don't think the statement was necessarily aimed only at Russia. Might be aimed at other NATO countries to build support .

 
beer 30 said:
I acknowledge that the Russia of the past is certainly not the Russia we see on display now but I'm curious why you don't think what we are seeing in Ukraine is representative of Soviet military capabilities?
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Hold up.  Ukraine is showing us the end game.  After Vietnam there was no appetite to lose so many men.  Therefore we leaned on tech like satellites, stealth, guided munitions and cruise missiles.  All of which were meant to promote a standoff war.  What you see in Ukraine is a direct result of our response to the Soviet army. The Russia army simply never could keep pace except with propaganda and ####### with our elections. 

 
culdeus said:
Some of the British gatm hardware is showing up and it's lethal.  Are we ok linking people getting obviously killed here? @FBG Moderator
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Not FBGMod but IMO we're adults here: 

- Tanks being blown up: NBD

- People being likely injured/killed without graphic detail as small part of overall video : exercise judgment but likely OK

- Close up videos featuring graphic gore or death : Keep it 

 
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thecatch said:
What’s the direct connection? (I mean specifically, beyond the fact that Russia is involved in both.)
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Most of the equipment is either Soviet tech or upgraded kits of Soviet tech. The military structure and tactical thinking is Soviet era. The Russian military, in many ways, is a continuation of the Soviet military. Sure, it isn't a direct continuation as the loss of the Soviet Empire and loss of funding makes an impact but the Russian military is obviously a direct dependent of the Soviet military.

 
Chadstroma said:
My guess is typo meant to be ATGM = Anti Tank Guided Missiles which British would be the NLAW I believe. 
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Gotcha.  I've read about how those anti-armor weapons combined with the loitering drones have really changed defensive tactics in the last 10 years.  I bet the 2003 Iraq invasion wouldn't be such a cakewalk today if Saddam's forces had those weapons. 

 
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The SERDA aided skif missiles are basically next gen javelins that can operate four miles from an operator.  The 130mm variety are being used now and are ####### #### up.  

 
Chadstroma said:
Most of the equipment is either Soviet tech or upgraded kits of Soviet tech. The military structure and tactical thinking is Soviet era. The Russian military, in many ways, is a continuation of the Soviet military. Sure, it isn't a direct continuation as the loss of the Soviet Empire and loss of funding makes an impact but the Russian military is obviously a direct dependent of the Soviet military.
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You’re definitely right about the tactics. The use of the same equipment cuts the other way, in my view. If we were facing the USSR in 1980, we’d be confronting leading edge (ish) tank and other tech. 40 years later that equipment is relatively less effective (even with upgrades). 

 
If you push forward the thought process at what point do we start seeing air to air drone combat?  Seems the natural progression. 

 
The Z Machine said:
Gotcha.  I've read about how those anti-armor weapons combined with the loitering drones have really changed defensive tactics in the last 10 years.  I bet the 2003 Iraq invasion wouldn't be such a cakewalk today if Saddam's forces had those weapons. 
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A poor man's ATGM is the RPG which can be effective in knocking out armor. IIRC there were some tank losses during the 2003 invasion due to RPG's. The slat armor (looks like cages) was added for the RPG's as it is helps against the HEAT rounds the RPG's use. 

You have the big differences between the ATGM and RPG being first guided versus unguided (what guidance depends on what system), effective range, OTA ability of most ATGM (OTA = Overfly Top Attack) which helps pierce the thinner armor on top of armored vehicles and more kill ability with the warheads. 

RPG's can knock out the most modern of tanks though. 

It would have made a difference but a few things that jump out at me as an arm chair General... First, Ukraine is awash with literally thousands upon thousands of ATGM. Something like 5-6K Javelins. Likely similar numbers of NLAW. And who knows how many more systems (there is a long list of countries that have developed their own ATGM), I think I saw MILAN (French) being donated. Iraq would have needed huge amounts of these to make a real difference.

Another is tactics and terrain. The Russians have been lining up on roads (the mud is nasty in Ukraine) and that is an easy and juicy target. Ukraine has much more natural cover for infantry vs armor. When you get into the cities where you have cover in Iraq, the RPG's are actually likely the better weapon anyways. 

I am sure Taiwan is taking notes right now and trying to figure out how to get as many MANPAD and ATGM it can get it's hands on and likely start to develop it's own (I wouldn't be surprised if there was a tech transfer from US or UK in order to assist in that) and all of this sure has to make China less likely to try an invasion of Taiwan. Ukraine's standing up, successfully, to Russia, along with all the international support for it versus condemnation for Russia has to be the best thing for Taiwan's security since they retreated to the island. 

ETA: I totally forgot about the Panzerfaust 3 which is another ATGM that has been sent to Ukraine in large numbers. 

That isn't even to mention the home grown Ukrainian ATGM (I forget the name of it though and have no idea how many they produced).

Ukraine is swimming in ATGM's. 

 
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thecatch said:
You’re definitely right about the tactics. The use of the same equipment cuts the other way, in my view. If we were facing the USSR in 1980, we’d be confronting leading edge (ish) tank and other tech. 40 years later that equipment is relatively less effective (even with upgrades). 
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The entire Cold War it was the West focus on quality and the Soviet focus on quantity. The Soviets had some wins technology wise (MiG-15, T-34, AK47, etc) but in most instances, the West quickly caught up and surpassed. 

Regardless, there is no way around drawing a direct line from the Soviet to Russian military. Of course, it isn't as dark of a line and it is much thinner but there is still a line connecting them. 

 
culdeus said:
If you push forward the thought process at what point do we start seeing air to air drone combat?  Seems the natural progression. 
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I am sure that is well under development. The idea has been for a while heading towards a mix of manned and unmanned integrated fighting. I think it will likely start off with UAV missile trucks and progress from there. 

 
BobbyLayne said:
Putin’s legacy might end up being “how Russia became East Ukraine.”
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@DarthPutinKGB: Day 96 of my 3 day war. My army has moved 5 miles west since February. NATO has moved 600 miles east in the same time without losing single soldier but it's still been worth it.

I remain a master strategist.

 
JaxBill said:
Russia is losing fewer tanks
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Wow.... bringing T-62's out of reserve storage to bring into the fight. The T-62 is the Russian equivalent of our M60 Patton. 

I saw some numbers before where the percentage of losses of Ukraine on tanks and fighter planes was about 95% of their pre-war number. They had some percentages of losses that were like 135% etc on some things (though I don't remember which) where they have got equipment and then lost it. 

The Ukrainians are knocking out more Russian equipment but they desperately need continued support as they don't have any reserves to tap into. They have got a lot.. transfers of M113's, T-72's, Bushmaster MRAPs, BMP-1's, Mil-17's, Mil-24's, Flakpanzer Gepards, various small arms, various howitzers, a sea of various MANPADs and ATGM's and so on... it seems that any ex-Soviet stuff that any friendly country has is on it's way to Ukraine and then anything that can be taken out of storage and sent over is being sent. 

 
Chadstroma said:
I am sure that is well under development. The idea has been for a while heading towards a mix of manned and unmanned integrated fighting. I think it will likely start off with UAV missile trucks and progress from there. 
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We are approaching 5 years since the first successful test for the Predator. The bar was pretty low for that test, though.

It would be tough for the Predator to become an effective air-to-air platform, since it was not originally designed to survive in contested environments and is designed as a medium altitude long endurance platform, not a platform with high speeds and maneuverability. I think we are talking about a new generation of UAS platforms, which implies we are likely decades away from an effective capability.

 
Just Win Baby said:
We are approaching 5 years since the first successful test for the Predator. The bar was pretty low for that test, though.

It would be tough for the Predator to become an effective air-to-air platform, since it was not originally designed to survive in contested environments and is designed as a medium altitude long endurance platform, not a platform with high speeds and maneuverability. I think we are talking about a new generation of UAS platforms, which implies we are likely decades away from an effective capability.
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I just read a piece discussing the development of the sixth gen fighter. It was saying that one of the elements to the fighter would be integration with drone fighters. The easiest things would be to have drone AWACS type drones and missile trucks. Of course, the development is highly secretive so it is mostly speculation but it seems that the expectation is that the drones will be fighter capable integrations with the manned 6th gen fighter. 

 
Binky The Doormat said:
so is Russia now claiming they may go nuclear if the Ukraine uses those rockets we sent?
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Russia is always rattling the nuclear sabre. Their conventional forces have been exposed and shown to be not nearly the "near peer" threat we thought they were so it is their biggest scary card to play. 

I think you are referring to their threat to "hit targets they have no yet hit". I think that that is purposefully vague and I think meant as a threat to the Nuclear power plants in Ukraine.  Rivne and Khmeltnski (western Ukraine) as the most likely. 

I think it is more threats. Radiation leaks can travel. The prevailing winds go the wring direction and Russia is radiated. 

Ukraine needs further counter battery capability. The Russian advances they have made seemingly has been won by their large advantage in artillery. 

 
Just Win Baby said:
We are approaching 5 years since the first successful test for the Predator. The bar was pretty low for that test, though.

It would be tough for the Predator to become an effective air-to-air platform, since it was not originally designed to survive in contested environments and is designed as a medium altitude long endurance platform, not a platform with high speeds and maneuverability. I think we are talking about a new generation of UAS platforms, which implies we are likely decades away from an effective capability.
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I just came across this article regarding the JSDF development https://www.pcmag.com/news/japan-is-developing-a-combat-drone-to-protect-fighter-jets

 
I think Ukraine is going to need to find a peace deal.  Europe/US isn't going to tolerate the impacts to economy/gas prices for much longer.  Not to mention the continued military donations.  It seems like Russia is about to consolidate their eastern objectives and I don't think Ukraine can do anything about it.

Hope I'm wrong. 

 
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It is said that the current two pronged counter offensive by the Ukrainians is currently costing the Russians a battalion a day in equipment and men. They have about 100 under strength battalions in the region. The Ukrainians have captured enough equipment in the offensive to outfit a new brigade... or put in another way, they have gained more equipment than they have lost in these offensives.

A major problem for the Ukrainians right now is handling the Russian surrenders. They have no where to put them.

Russia is running out of ways to reinforce short of a total national mobilization.
 
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