*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (1 Viewer)

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CNN segment here on sea drones: https://twitter.com/MarquardtA/status/1685263332733845505

We got an exclusive look at Ukraine's latest sea drone, used to attack Russia in the Black Sea. Fast, nimble and packed with 100s of kg of explosives. Naval drones just hit the Kerch Bridge and they say the drones are limiting the Black Sea Fleet's movements.

Video: https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1685231133305270273

Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence agency reported explosions occurred overnight “as a result of sabotage” at a Russian ammunition depot near Cossack Bay in Russian-occupied Crimea, where it said the 810th separate marine infantry brigade is located. It shared this video.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1685253653131595777

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki says 100 Wagnerites in Belarus have moved toward the Suwałki corridor (Polish-Lithuanian border grounds that separate Belarus from Kaliningrad).

Ukraine war latest: Kyiv says soldiers will enter Crimea 'soon'; Zelenskyy visits Bakhmut frontline; more Wagner fighters 'move closer to Polish border'

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has given what appears to be his first interview since his aborted mutiny; Ukrainian soldiers on the frontline have been spotted using "seized" North Korean rockets; two blasts have been reported in Russia.

news.sky.com

The deputy interior minister of Lithuania has said his country and Poland could decide to shut their borders with Belarus.

Both countries have said they face an increased threat due to the presence of Wagner mercenary troops in Belarus, which is a close ally of Russia.

Arnoldas Abramavicius told journalists: "The discussions are real. The possibility of closing the border exists."

Polish government officials met in a Polish border town on Thursday to assess the current situation, he said.

Mr Abramavicius said about 1,200 Wagner troops are in Belarus, with the vast majority at a training ground in Osipovichi, close to the Polish border.

He said although Wagner does not pose a military threat to Poland, there was a "possibility of provocation".

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1685245136609955840

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@WarintheFuture: “This war has seen a steady intensification of sensors, analysis & dissemination of intelligence…This is unprecedented in warfare and was something that was not present when modern obstacle breaching doctrine was developed decades ago.” https://google.com/url?q=https://substack.com/app-link/post?publication_id%3D1198399%26post_id%3D135533237%26utm_source%3Dpost-email-title%26isFreemail%3Dtrue%26token%3DeyJ1c2VyX2lkIjozODYxNDYxNSwicG9zdF9pZCI6MTM1NTMzMjM3LCJpYXQiOjE2OTA1ODQ3MTYsImV4cCI6MTY5MzE3NjcxNiwiaXNzIjoicHViLTExOTgzOTkiLCJzdWIiOiJwb3N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0.tA4tI5311siimqdusb9MPSrO3PoYs-5_8QVWQRIIgBc&source=gmail&ust=1690671148353000&usg=AOvVaw2i0G36YoU0s1wpEH9233T4&rct=i

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

News, analysis and comment from the Financial Times, the worldʼs leading global business publication

www.ft.com

Ukrainian artillery crews have been firing rockets made in North Korea against Russian positions, turning Pyongyang’s munitions against the invasion forces of its ally President Vladimir Putin.
The North Korean arms, whose use by Ukraine has not been previously reported, were shown to the Financial Times by troops operating Soviet-era Grad multiple-launch rocket systems (MLRS) near the devastated city of Bakhmut.
The origins of Ukraine’s armoury highlight how Europe’s biggest land conflict since the second world war has become a mixed-up cauldron for generations of the world’s military equipment, ranging from ageing Soviet kit to modern precision weapons.
Ruslan, a Ukrainian artillery commander, said the North Korean munitions were not favoured by his troops because of their relatively high dud rate, with many known to misfire or fail to explode. Most were manufactured in the 1980s and 1990s, according to their markings.
One Ukrainian Grad unit member warned the FT not to get too close to the rocket launcher when the crew fired the North Korean munitions because “they are very unreliable and do crazy things sometimes”.

The Ukrainian soldiers said the rockets had been “seized” from a ship by a “friendly” country before being delivered to Ukraine. They declined to provide further details.

 

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Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the front and reportedly advanced near Bakhmut on July 28. Ukrainian military officials stated that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on the northern

www.understandingwar.org

Ukrainian forces conducted counteroffensive operations in at least three sectors of the front and reportedly advanced near Bakhmut on July 28. Ukrainian military officials stated that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on the northern and southern flanks of Bakhmut, and Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated on July 27 that Ukrainian forces continued advancing south of Bakhmut.[1] A Russian milblogger claimed on July 28 that Ukrainian forces advanced near Kurdyumivka and Andriivka.[2] Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border near Staromayorske (9km south of Velyka Novosilka) and Urozhaine (9km south of Velyka Novosilka), and some milbloggers acknowledged that Ukrainian forces captured Staromayorske on July 27.[3] A Ukrainian source claimed that Ukrainian forces have advanced to within 10-12 kilometers of the main Russian defensive line in the Berdyansk direction.[4] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian ground attacks near Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv), Verbove (17km southeast of Orikhiv), and Pyatykhatky (25km southwest of Orikhiv) in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[5] Russian “Vostok” Battalion Commander Alexander Khodakovsky stated that Ukrainian forces can conduct strikes against the full depth of defending Russian forces and that these strikes are killing Russian commanders and degrading Russian command and control.[6] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the 247th Guards Air Assault (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) refused to go to combat near Staromayorske due to heavy Russian losses and Ukrainian battlefield victories.[7]

Russian naval posturing in the Black Sea likely aims to impose a de facto blockade on Ukrainian ports without committing the Black Sea Fleet to the enforcement of a naval blockade. Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Captain First Rank Nataliya Humenyuk reported on July 28 that Ukrainian officials have intercepted radio transmissions of Russian forces warning civilian ships in the Black Sea against heading to Ukrainian ports.[8] A Russian milblogger amplified an audio recording purportedly of a Russian warship telling a civilian vessel in the Black Sea that Russian forces would consider the vessel involved in the conflict in Ukraine as a military cargo ship if it sailed towards a Ukrainian port.[9] Russian sources also claimed that Russian authorities announced a nighttime navigation ban for all small vessels near the Kerch Strait due to concerns about Ukrainian naval drones.[10] The Black Sea Fleet conducted exercises on July 27 wherein naval warships launched a missile at a target ship in the Black Sea.[11] The Russian Foreign Ministry (MFA) recently attempted to soften the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) July 19 announcement about viewing civilian ships in the Black Sea as legitimate military targets by claiming that the announcement meant that Russian forces would inspect ships.[12] The Russian MoD itself has not clarified what actions its announcement will allow the Russian military to take and even the Russian MFA’s interpretation would require Russian forces to board and possibly seize foreign civilian vessels. The Russian naval posturing in the Black Sea is likely intentionally ambiguous to generate widespread concern about possible detention by the Russian navy or outright strikes on civilian vessels. The Kremlin likely aims for this posturing to have a chilling effect on maritime activity so that Russian naval assets do not need to enforce an actual blockade of Ukrainian ports. A naval blockade is only mandatory for neutral entities to follow under international law if a belligerent declares the existence of the blockade, and Russia has yet to do so.[13]

 

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https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/29/europe/ukraine-counteroffensive-south-push-intl/index.html

Ukrainian officials have said little about what fresh units are being committed to the offensive, but the military has clearly added recently-minted units equipped with western armor in at least one important segment of the southern front.

The challenges faced by the Ukrainians are perhaps less to do with numbers and more to do with capabilities, training and coordination, factors that are critical when an attacking force is faced with such an array of defenses.


Fragments of geolocated video show that western armor such as Bradley fighting vehicles have been part of the renewed assault and that experienced units have been brought into the fray. But tight operational security on the part of the Ukrainians precludes a full assessment of what is being done to reboot the counteroffensive – and where.

There’s still debate about the size of the additional effort.

George Barros of the Institute for the Study of War – a Washington-based group – told CNN: “We had not seen any evidence of a battalion-level attack and certainly no brigade-level attacks. If the Ukrainians are indeed committing full battalions and brigades now as reported, that would mark a clear new phase of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.”

A Ukrainian brigade is roughly 3,000 troops.

Kostyantyn Denysov, a member of the Freedom Legion, said the fighting was relentless.

“In a word, it’s hell,” he told RFE/Radio Liberty this week. “There are small arms battles along the entire contact line, counter-battery fighting.”

“Their helicopters are flying here in pairs and shelling our positions, Su-25 assault aircraft are working, dropping bombs on our guys’ heads. Many units have been brought here to try not only to stop our movement, but also to recapture lost positions in certain areas.”

The Ukrainian military’s critical need is to gain momentum - and force Russian commanders to make painful choices about where and how to deploy their units.

It is far too early to tell whether the Ukrainian counteroffensive has entered a more dynamic phase. The ISW cautions that “this kind of penetration battle will be one of the most difficult things for Ukrainian forces to accomplish.”

There are factors that may work in Ukraine’s favor.

George Barros at the ISW says the Ukrainians may be able to exploit geographical advantages.

“Russian defensive lines are not all contiguous or uniformly suited for strong defence. Some lines are bisected by water features or difficult terrain. Some lines are arrayed in such a manner that it could make a controlled withdrawal from one prepared defensive line to the other difficult.”

Pointing to successful Ukrainian attacks along the Mokri Yaly river, Barros says that “many such exploitable terrain intricacies exist along the southern frontline.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Video: Retired colonel on what could happen if Ukraine's counteroffensive is successful

BBC video: BBC gets access to secretive Ukrainian sniper unit

Ukraine war latest: Putin 'only person' who doesn't want war to stop, Starmer says - as Macron hails 'turning point'

Keir Starmer has set out the self-described coalition of the willing's plan for increasing the pressure on Russia's Vladimir Putin, after hosting Volodymyr Zelenskyy at a meeting in London. France's Emmanuel Macron hailed a "turning point" in US policy. Catch up on what happened below.

news.sky.com

Six people, including a 10-year-old girl and her mother, have now been confirmed dead after a Russian missile strike targeted the southern Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih today.

Dozens of others were left wounded, adding to the toll of innocent civilians caught in the crossfire of the conflict. Ukrainian officials confirmed the casualties and reported on the extent of the destruction caused by the attack.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy posted a video of the aftermath of the missile strike, showing smoke billowing from a nine-storey residential building that had sustained a gaping hole.

Additionally, another nearby four-storey building lay nearly leveled by the force of the explosion.

Regional governor Serhiy Lysak expressed his grief on Telegram, stating, "It's already six dead in Kryvyi Rih," while announcing a day of mourning in the city to honor the lives lost. The mayor, Oleksandr Vilkul, provided further heart-wrenching details, confirming the tragic loss of the young girl and her 45-year-old mother among the deceased.

Ukraine maps show the price of allies’ hesitation

Putin is looking for a bigger war, not an off-ramp, in Ukraine

When it comes to the war itself, the Kremlin still seems unperturbed by the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Even if Kyiv makes more advances, the Kremlin may brush them off as temporary. Putin is banking on the fact that the Russian manpower that can potentially be mobilised is three to four times bigger than Ukraine’s, and the only pressing task is to be able to tap into that resource at will: to mobilise many more men, arm them, train them and send them to fight. This is precisely the purpose of the new law, which should help the Kremlin to avoid another official mobilisation.
From now on, the government can quietly send draft notices to as many men as it deems necessary. The upper age limit for performing mandatory service will be increased from 27 to 30, and could be raised again in future. Once an electronic draft notice is issued, Russia’s borders will be immediately closed to its recipient in order to prevent a massive exodus of military-age men like the one Russia witnessed last autumn. The punishments for refusing to serve have also been ramped up. These moves, combined with massive state investment in expanding arms production, should help Putin to build a bigger and better equipped army.

A parallel tactic is the strangulation of Ukraine’s economy. Knowing that the Ukrainian budget is on life support provided by its western allies, the Kremlin wants to deny Kyiv all sources of revenue. Moscow has therefore not only pulled out of the grain deal that had enabled Ukrainian agricultural exports via the Black Sea, it has also launched massive air strikes against Ukrainian ports to destroy any possibility of reviving the agreement. The same logic underpins Russia’s air strikes against civilian infrastructure: they are aimed at making Ukrainian cities uninhabitable and preventing reconstruction efforts.
The Kremlin hopes that the rapid rebuilding of the Russian army and gradual decimation of the Ukrainian economy and armed forces will result in growing western frustration and a decline in material support for Kyiv. To speed up this process and break the west’s will, Moscow is using threats of escalation, including expansion of the conflict towards Nato territory via Belarus with the help of Wagner mercenaries based there.
Putin has made plenty of fatal mistakes. But as long as he is in charge, Moscow will dedicate its still vast resources to achieving his obsession with destroying and subordinating Ukraine. As western leaders think about policies to support Ukraine into the third year of this ugly war, any long-term strategy must take this reality into account.

Ukraine retakes 15 square kilometers in south, east in past week

Ukrainian forces have recaptured nearly 15 square km (5.8 square miles) of land from Russian troops in the east and south over the past week during their counteroffensive, a senior defence official said on Monday.

www.reuters.com

Ukrainian forces have recaptured nearly 15 square km (5.8 square miles) of land from Russian troops in the east and south over the past week during their counteroffensive, a senior defence official said on Monday.
Kyiv's forces have now retaken 204.7 sq km in the south since they launched a major push against Russian forces early last month, Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar said on the Telegram messaging app.

Maliar said Kyiv's troops had retaken 2 sq km in the past week on the Bakhmut front, bringing the total territory recaptured there to 37 sq km since the counteroffensive began.
In the south, where Ukrainian forces are trying to advance towards the cities of Berdyansk and Melitopol, she said that Kyiv's troops had recaptured 12.6 sq km in the last week.

 

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Inside the Wagner Group’s Armed Uprising

How Yevgeny Prigozhin’s private military company went from fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine to staging a mutiny at home.

www.newyorker.com

Too much to quote here, but this was a great read

 

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Client Challenge

www.ft.com

On 155 mm shells:

The US has already struck deals with Bulgaria and South Korea to supply the shells to Ukraine and is in talks with Japan to do the same, officials said.

But a US Army effort to increase monthly output of the crucial munitions to 90,000 will take until 2025, highlighting the challenge of ramping up such production quickly, particularly when the US had not previously been focused on it. “Prior to the Ukraine spin-up, most of the army’s focus was on building out new tank munitions,” said Retired Brig. Gen. Guy Walsh, executive vice-president at the National Defense Industrial Association.

The Pentagon has asked to buy only about 790,000 155mm rounds over the past 10 years, mostly for use in training exercises. That suggests the US has already given Ukraine more than the quantity it procured in 155mm purchases over the past decade, according to a report by the Center for a New American Security think-tank in Washington. Compounding the effort to ramp up production was a US decision to downsize its defence industrial base after the cold war. “We did not anticipate or prepare for a long war and the industrial base was constrained for efficiency,” said Mark Cancian, senior adviser at Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Ukrainian forces fire 8,000 rounds of 155mm shells a day:

Ukraine is currently firing up to 8,000 rounds of artillery a day, a much larger quantity than the US would fire, according to American officials.

“As the front lines stabilise, the importance of artillery increases,” Cancian said. “The surprise has been how important just regular artillery shells are. ”The US is now also working to ramp up supply of the shells, with a target of producing up to 90,000 a month by fiscal year 2025, according to the US Army, compared with 24,000 now and 14,000 per month before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

However, production takes place mainly at four government-owned, contractor-operated sites in Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia and Iowa. A report by CNAS described the effort as “a lean production process with multiple bottlenecks”. The US Army is building more production lines, including retooling a facility in Ontario, Canada, and erecting a new assembly line in Texas. Army officials have said they may also establish new facilities to load, assemble and pack 155mm shells in Arkansas, Iowa and Kansas.

 

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‘Nowhere to hide’: The question troubling Ukrainian troops amid a grinding counteroffensive

The four roads of Staromaiorske appear almost ground to dust in the drone footage. It’s a tiny village, but as the latest gain of Ukraine’s renewed counteroffensive in the direction of Mariupol, Staromaiorske’s symbolism far outweighs its size.

Its fate represents a larger problem for Ukraine as it pushes forward. After the bitter battles of Ukraine’s advances, barely a wall is left standing from which Kyiv’s forces can defend the recaptured ground, making their hard-earned progress vulnerable to Russia’s blunt artillery.

This is exactly what happened Monday, when persistent shelling was said to have pummelled the village’s ruins. At one point, Russian officials even claimed to have kicked Ukrainian forces back out of the village, which Ukraine staunchly denied.


For the troops who fought for Staromaiorske, a mixture of Ukraine’s AREY territorial defense forces from Krivyh Rih and the 35th Marines, the fight was the latest of many, where grueling losses have marred every 100 yards regained.

A solider from the AREY forces, call sign Krivbas, sped towards the front as he described the main peril of the ten-day Staromaiorske attack, at the end of which Russian forces suddenly fled the ruins.

“When you assault under enemy shelling, you have nowhere to hide,” Krivbas said of the ruined village. “That’s the hardest part.”

He said the Russians have tried to recapture the village twice with small groups of troops since it fell last week.

Ukraine’s position is made harder still given Russian forces are on the eastern side of the river, able to use its natural boundary from which they can fire artillery. These latest advances remain small in scope, but came after Pentagon officials suggested Ukraine had stepped up a gear in its months-long counteroffensive and was finally committing reserves to the fight.

Hopes are high for a faster pace of advance, but have been dampened by the very real threat of Russian airpower and Ukrainian exhaustion, troops in frontline villages told CNN.

Krivbas walked through the ruins of Neskuchne, a larger town liberated by Ukraine weeks earlier, as he described the tenacity and cunning of the Russian forces he fought there.

Ahead of the assault, Ukraine had assessed that only 20 Russians were defending the town. But there were another 200 hidden in various basements, who did not even emerge to use the toilet, apparently using plastic bottles underground to avoiding Ukrainian surveillance drones.

As a result, Ukraine thought its force of 70 was overwhelming, but instead met tougher resistance than expected.

The bitter fight for Neskuchne ended, Krivbas said, in the school hall, where Russian paratroopers made their last stand before fleeing. He gestures to the trash littering the school floor, and appalling conditions in which the occupiers appeared to live, before battle torched the building.

The wall graffiti is equally bleak: “There is no love.” “God is for Russia.” “Welcome to Mordor.”

It is a nihilism that only amplifies a key question Ukrainian forces have: Why do the Russian troops fight so hard for these tiny settlements? As they push further into occupied territory, the fight remains as hard.

The fact that Russian forces fight so persistently for each settlement has raised doubts about claims that Russia’s defensive line is fierce but thin.

“I hope that when we get through their last line of defense, then they start to run,” said Krivbas. “For now they still feel there is something behind them.”

The recent deployment of Ukraine’s reserves, and talk of a new phase of the counteroffensive can only boost morale so far.

“We feel support, but we are very very tired,” Krivbas said.

The brutal tenacity of Russian tactics remain steadfast.

Amid constant outgoing shellfire, Serhey, an AREY commander, said: “Their tactics haven’t changed. They put the Storm Z convicts in front with no comms or information.”

Such prisoner assaults – waves of poorly equipped recruits from Russia’s jails who are often described as “cannon fodder” – are used to expose Ukrainian firing positions, so better trained Russian soldiers can engage them, he said.

He added: “They stand till the death. I don’t understand their motivation. Or what they are fighting for.”

His troops showed a small Russian booklet entitled, “Why we fight,” found in captured Russian positions, which provides a warped narrative of the invasion’s causes, saying Russia had been attacked and was left with no choice but to defend itself.

Another Staromayorske liberator, callsign “Reva,” carried a captured modern AK-12 Russian assault rifle as he described the apparent Russian use of an irritant gas on the frontlines.

“There was chaotic [Russian] shooting, to find out where we were. Then the gas. You don’t feel it. It moves slow near the ground. I was packing my rucksack when I felt burning in my throat and nose,” he recalled.

Even the mines the Russians laid were booby-trapped.

A young military deminer who goes by the call-sign Volt, described how anti-tank mines he found were laid with a grenade beneath them, so the grenade would detonate if the larger mine were moved, causing a dual blast. His explanation was interrupted by loud outgoing rocket fire.

Ukraine has picked up the pace, and is moving. Its troops just do not know how much further this bitter fight will continue.

 

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https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/01/politics/f-16-ukrainian-pilots-training-critical-decisions-august/index.html

The US is still waiting for European officials to submit a final plan for training Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighter jets, which the US will have to authorize before the program can actually begin, officials familiar with the matter told CNN.

The US still needs to approve the transfer of F-16-specific equipment and materials, including flight simulators and training manuals. But officials told CNN that the Biden administration has not yet received a final training plan from the Europeans, meaning there is nothing for the US to sign off on yet.


It is also still unclear which countries will commit F-16s to the training program – and to Ukraine itself once the program is finished. Transferring the planes to Ukraine will require separate US approval.

US defense officials told CNN that the US is still deciding whether to send American pilots to help train the Ukrainians, but that no decisions will be made until a final training plan is authorized.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-08-02-23/h_f85dc302f89444d16e6142dfe9a62c14

Russian attacks on Ukraine’s Danube River ports are “unacceptable,” given their proximity to Romania, president Klaus Iohannis has said.

“Russia's continued attacks against the Ukrainian civilian infrastructure on Danube, in the proximity of Romania, are unacceptable,” Romanian leader Iohannis tweeted on Wednesday.
“These are war crimes and they further affect [Ukraine]'s capacity to transfer their food products towards those in need in the world.”

Overnight drone strikes in Odesa targeted the Danube port of Izmail, causing damage to some of its structures, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense said Wednesday.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the strike on Odesa port infrastructure by Russia was an attack on “global food security” and has called on the international community to intervene.

Some context: The Danube River is a natural barrier between Ukraine and Romania, effectively serving as a physical border between the two.

Romania is part of NATO and Russian attacks on the Danube River have been the closest Moscow has come to striking NATO territory.

Video from the Romanian bank of the Danube of the aftermath of the attack on port of Izmail: https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1686681132698304512

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Another great thread from Mick Ryan: https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1686656259230216192

Institute for the Study of War

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) accused Ukraine of attempting to attack two Black Sea Fleet patrol boats with unmanned semi-submersibles on August 1. The Russian MoD initially claimed that Ukraine launched three unmanned boats at the “Sergey Kotov”

www.understandingwar.org

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front and reportedly advanced near Bakhmut on August 1. Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces continued gradually advancing near Bakhmut, and a Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces captured an unspecified height south of Bakhmut near Klishchiivka.[21] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported on August 1 that in the past week, Ukrainian forces captured two square kilometers of territory in the Bakhmut direction and 12 square kilometers in southern Ukraine.[22] Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted unsuccessful attacks against Russian forces along the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area near Staromayorske and Urozhaine and in western Zaporizhia Oblast near Robotyne.[23] The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that the Russian 58th Combined Arms Army (Southern Military District) in western Zaporizhia Oblast likely struggles with severe fatigue and that elements of the 5th Combined Arms Army (Eastern Military District) south of Velyka Novosilka likely face a high level of pressure to defend the area and feel that the Russian military command should rotate them from the front line.[24] The UK MoD also reported that Russian commanders in southern Ukraine largely struggle with artillery ammunition shortages, a lack of reserves, and challenges with securing the flanks of defending units.

 

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Video: https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1686723811876421632

In this video you can hear & see what we hear & see in Kyiv during Russia’s air attacks. The buzzing sound is the Iranian Shahed drone which Ukrainians call flying mopeds or flying lawnmowers. Air defenses destroy it, sending debris falling to the ground.

In Ukraine I saw a brave but ravaged land in limbo. It needs a future – it needs Nato | Timothy Garton Ash

Joe Biden must be bold at this week’s summit, and help to give Kyiv the security that would allow it to rebuild, says Guardian columnist Timothy Garton Ash

www.theguardian.com

In a recent poll, 78% of Ukrainians said close family members or friends had been wounded or killed since Russia’s full-scale invasion last year. The pain is partly masked by the adrenaline of resistance, but after the war, the country will face widespread trauma. A priest told us about a soldier who returned after some months at the front, but could not sleep. Back home, it was just too quiet.

The West Attacked Russia’s Economy. The Result Is Another Stalemate.

Economists expect sanctions to cause Russia to stagnate in the years ahead but the West’s failure to quickly bring the Russian economy to its knees mirrors a larger stalemate on the battlefield.

www.wsj.com

Weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine last year, a White House official warned Moscow that a raft of U.S.-led sanctions could cut Russia’s economy in half.
Last week the International Monetary Fund gave some upbeat news for the Kremlin, saying it now expects Russia’s economy to grow 1.5% this year, supported by extensive state spending. That follows a shrinkage of 2.1% the year before, when Russia became the most sanctioned major economy in the world.
Economists expect the sanctions to cause Russia to stagnate in the years ahead and the fault lines are already emerging. But the West’s failure to quickly bring the Russian economy to its knees for its invasion of Ukraine mirrors a larger stalemate on the battlefield there, despite a raft of Western lethal aid to Kyiv and economic support for the Ukrainian cause.

A Spending Boom Fuels Russia’s Wartime Economy, Raising Bubble Fears (Published 2023)

The economic strength has helped to maintain popular support for Vladimir Putin’s war, but some have warned the state-led spending is threatening the country’s financial stability.

www.nytimes.com

The economic strength has created a sense of well-being among Russians and helped to maintain popular support for President Vladimir V. Putin’s war. But some economists, as well as Russia’s respected central bank chief, have warned that the spending is threatening the country’s financial stability.

The concern is that the government is pumping money into the economy too quickly. As Russia’s invasion has descended into a war of attrition, Mr. Putin has poured the country’s sizable financial reserves into expanding military production, while also showering poorer Russians with higher pensions, salaries and benefits like subsidized mortgages.
“Everyone keeps buying at these subsidized rates,” said Ms. Gromova, 44, who recently finished paying off one of her five existing mortgages. “And who is paying for it? The state.”
The result has been a spike in demand for everything from beach holidays to tank chassis — all of which is fueling inflation. In an effort to prevent the economy from overheating, the central bank in July raised rates more than expected.

The bank expects the Russian economy to grow up to 2.5 percent this year, a faster than normal pace that would allow it to recover practically all economic activity that has wiped out since the start of the war. Unemployment is near a record low and real wages have been growing steadily this year, as state factories and private companies compete for scarce labor.

The impact of public spending has been particularly pronounced in poorer regions on the periphery of the country that provide the bulk of military production and soldiers. Regions bordering Ukraine and the occupied Crimean Peninsula have also benefited economically from major investments in military fortifications and the arrival of tens of thousands servicemen, even as residents have suffered from nearly daily retaliatory Ukrainian rocket and drone attacks.

Soldiers are sending home salaries that usually outstrip average local earnings several times. Families of those who die collect compensation that can surpass their annual income.

In announcing the recent rate hike, Elvira Nabiullina, the central bank governor, repeatedly mentioned labor shortages in guarded remarks to the press, a sign of her concern with the scale of the problem. She also said the demand for goods and services was outstripping supply, feeding inflation and threatening financial stability.
“As an economist, I don’t know how this bubble can be deflated,” said Alexandra Prokopenko, a researcher at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, and a former adviser at the Russian central bank. “One day it could all crash like a house of cards.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Poland issues "very firm protest" after Belarusian military helicopters allegedly entered Polish airspace

A Moscow building was struck on Tuesday by a second drone attack in as many days as Russia says it thwarted a Ukrainian attack on two of its Black Sea vessels. Follow here for live updates.

www.cnn.com

Poland expressed “a very firm protest” against Belarus on Wednesday as Warsaw summoned Minsk’s charge d’affaires, after two military helicopters reportedly entered Polish airspace on Tuesday.

“We issued a very firm protest against Belarus’ actions which we perceive as provocations,” Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Paweł Jabłoński told Polish radio station RMF.FM, adding that there could be more provocations from the Belarusian and Russian sides in the future.

The Belarusian military has denied a violation took place.

Poland has also informed NATO of the alleged helicopter incident, its defense ministry said Tuesday.

Some context: Tensions have been rising between Warsaw and Minsk, and Poland has announced it will increase the number of soldiers along its border with Belarus. On Saturday, Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said more than 100 Wagner mercenaries have moved towards the Suwałki corridor, and that this is “a step towards a further hybrid attack on Polish territory.”

Ukraine war latest: Iran 'to build drone factory in Belarus' to supply Russia; airline suspends flights to Moscow over attack risk

Officials from Iran and Belarus are believed to have discussed the initiative at a meeting in Tehran yesterday. And Turkmenistan's flagship airline has paused flights to Moscow. You can listen to our podcast exploring a warning from Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Russia as you scroll.

news.sky.com

We've been reporting all day on Russia's attack on the Ukrainian port of Izmail overnight.

Ukraine says the attack destroyed almost 40,000 tonnes of grain that had been destined for China, Israel and African nations (see 2.35pm post).

Sky News has verified the location of that attack - and found it is within one kilometre of the border with Romania.

Crucially, Romania is a NATO member state. Under article five of the alliance's treaty, an attack on one is considered an attack on all.

It's not the first time missiles have strayed dangerously close to NATO territory, and even crossed it.

Last November, a missile hit a grain silo in the eastern Polish village of Przewodow, killing two people.

The Polish president later said it was an "unfortunate accident" and was most likely not fired by Russia.

But the episode exposed how risky attacks near borders can be.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Zelenskyy urges cool heads as Poland lashes out at Ukraine in gratitude spat

Polish PM slaps Kyiv down for summoning Warsaw’s ambassador.

www.politico.eu

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stepped in to call for restraint late Tuesday in an effort to end an escalating diplomatic spat with Ukrainian ally Poland.

Earlier on Tuesday, Kyiv had summoned Warsaw’s envoy after a senior Polish official suggested Ukraine should be more grateful for the support it has been receiving from Poland since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion last year.

“We greatly appreciate the historical support of Poland, which together with us has become a real shield of Europe from sea to sea. And there cannot be a single crack in this shield,” Zelenskyy said.

“We will not allow any political instants to spoil the relations between the Ukrainian and Polish peoples, and emotions should definitely cool down,” the president added.

Poland has been one of Kyiv’s most vocal supporters since Moscow’s aggression ramped up in 2022. But in recent months, its relations with Kyiv have been hurt by Warsaw’s decision to extend a ban on some Ukrainian agricultural exports, which the Polish government considers a threat to the interests of domestic farmers.

Initially focused on grain, the dispute is now shifting to soft fruit such as raspberries and currants, with Poland’s farmers — who are set to be a key constituency in the upcoming Polish general elections in October — complaining that lower-priced imports from Ukraine are undercutting them.

The brewing contretemps escalated Tuesday after Ukraine summoned the Polish ambassador to Kyiv over “unacceptable” comments made by a senior Polish official.

Ukraine’s plan if Russia assassinates Zelenskyy

A Russian assassination would deprive Ukraine’s war effort of one of its most valuable assets.

www.politico.eu

Given the stakes, and the risk, it is little wonder Ukrainian officials tend to brush off requests to discuss what would happen were Russia to succeed — or they decline to go on the record, worrying the topic appears far too macabre.

And yet, despite the reluctance to publicly engage with the question, there is a plan in place, according to interviews with Ukrainian officials and lawmakers as well as analysts. Indeed, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said as much: “The Ukrainians have plans in place — that I’m not going to talk about or get into any details on — to make sure that there is what we would call ‘continuity of government’ one way or another,” he told CBS news last year.

Formally, under the constitution, the line of succession is clear. “When the president is unable to fulfill his duties, the chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine [the Ukrainian parliament] takes over his responsibilities,” said Mykola Knyazhytsky, an opposition lawmaker from the western city of Lviv. “Therefore, there would be no power vacuum.”

The chairman of the Verkhovna Rada — Ruslan Stefanchuk, a member of Zelenskyy’s Servant of the People party — doesn’t have an especially high trust rating in opinion polls. It is around 40 percent, less than half of Zelenskyy’s. And he’s not popular with opposition lawmakers.

“But I don’t think it matters,” said Adrian Karatnycky, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center. “There’s a strong leadership team and I think we would see collective government,” he added.

The governing council would most likely consist of Stefanchuk as the figurehead, along with Andrii Yermak, the former movie producer and lawyer who’s the head of the office of the president, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov. Valery Zaluzhny would remain as the country’s top general.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukrainian Troops Trained by the West Stumble in Battle

Ukraine’s army has for now set aside U.S. fighting methods and reverted to tactics it knows best.

www.nytimes.com

Now the Western-trained Ukrainian brigades are trying to turn things around, U.S. officials and independent analysts say. Ukrainian military commanders have changed tactics, focusing on wearing down the Russian forces with artillery and long-range missiles instead of plunging into minefields under fire. A troop surge is underway in the country’s south, with a second wave of Western-trained forces launching mostly small-scale attacks to punch through Russian lines.

But early results have been mixed. While Ukrainian troops have retaken a few villages, they have yet to make the kinds of sweeping gains that characterized their successes in the strategically important cities of Kherson and Kharkiv last fall. The complicated training in Western maneuvers has given the Ukrainians scant solace in the face of barrage after barrage of Russian artillery.

Ukraine’s decision to change tactics is a clear signal that NATO’s hopes for large advances made by Ukrainian formations armed with new weapons, new training and an injection of artillery ammunition have failed to materialize, at least for now.
It raises questions about the quality of the training the Ukrainians received from the West and about whether tens of billions of dollars’ worth of weapons, including nearly $44 billion worth from the Biden administration, have been successful in transforming the Ukrainian military into a NATO-standard fighting force.
“The counteroffensive itself hasn’t failed; it will drag on for several months into the fall,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who recently visited the front lines. “Arguably, the problem was in the assumption that with a few months of training, Ukrainian units could be converted into fighting more the way American forces might fight, leading the assault against a well-prepared Russian defense, rather than helping Ukrainians fight more the best way they know how.”
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has increasingly signaled that his strategy is to wait out Ukraine and its allies and win the war by exhausting them. American officials are worried that Ukraine’s return to its old tactics risks that it will race through precious ammunition supplies, which could play into Mr. Putin’s hands and disadvantage Ukraine in a war of attrition.

Biden administration officials had hoped the nine Western-trained brigades, some 36,000 troops, would show that the American way of warfare was superior to the Russian approach. While the Russians have a rigidly centralized command structure, the Americans taught the Ukrainians to empower senior enlisted soldiers to make quick decisions on the battlefield and to deploy combined arms tactics — synchronized attacks by infantry, armor and artillery forces.

Western officials championed that approach as more efficient than the costly strategy of wearing Russian forces down by attrition, which threatens to deplete Ukraine’s ammunition stocks.

Much of the training involved teaching Ukrainian troops how to go on the offensive rather than stay on defense. For years, Ukrainian troops had worked on defensive tactics as Russian-backed separatists launched attacks in eastern Ukraine. When Moscow began its full-scale invasion last year, Ukrainian troops put their defensive operations into play, denying Russia the swift victory it had anticipated.
The effort to take back their own territory “is requiring them to fight in different ways,” Colin H. Kahl, who recently stepped down as the Pentagon’s top policy official, said last month.
But the Western-trained brigades received only four to six weeks of combined arms training, and units made several mistakes at the start of the counteroffensive in early June that set them back, according to U.S. officials and analysts who recently visited the front lines and spoke to Ukrainian troops and commanders.

Some units failed to follow cleared paths and ran into mines. When a unit delayed a nighttime attack, an accompanying artillery bombardment to cover its advance went ahead as scheduled, tipping off the Russians.

Military experts said that using newly learned tactics for the first time was always going to be hard, especially given that the Russian response was to assume a defensive crouch and fire massive barrages of artillery.
“They were given a tall order,” said Rob Lee, a Russian military specialist at the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia and a former U.S. Marine officer, who has also traveled to the front lines. “They had a short amount of time to train on new equipment and to develop unit cohesion, and then they were thrown into one of the most difficult combat situations. They were put in an incredibly tough position.”

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine acknowledged in late July that his country’s counteroffensive against dug-in Russian troops was advancing more slowly than expected.
“We did have plans to start it in the spring, but we didn’t because, frankly, we had not enough munitions and armaments and not enough properly trained brigades — I mean, properly trained in these weapons,” Mr. Zelensky said via video link at the Aspen Security Forum, an annual national-security conference.
He added that “because we started it a bit late,” Russia had “time to mine all of our lands and build several lines of defense.”
Ukraine may well return to the American way of warfare if it breaks through dug-in Russian defenses, some military experts said. But offense is harder than defense, as Russia demonstrated last year when it abandoned its initial plans to advance to Kyiv.
“I do not think they’re abandoning combined arms tactics,” Philip M. Breedlove, a retired four-star Air Force general who was NATO’s supreme allied commander for Europe, said in an interview. “If they were to get through the first, second or third lines of defense, I think you’re going to see the definition of combined arms.”

Speaking at the Aspen forum, Jake Sullivan, President Biden’s national security adviser, said, “Ukraine has a substantial amount of combat power that it has not yet committed to the fight, and it is trying to choose its moment to commit that combat power to the fight when it will have the maximum impact on the battlefield.”
That moment appeared to come last week when Ukraine significantly ratcheted up its counteroffensive with two southward thrusts apparently aimed at cities in the Zaporizhzhia region: Melitopol, near the Sea of Azov, and Berdiansk, to the east on the Azov coast. In both cases, the Ukrainians have advanced only a few miles and have dozens more to go.

But analysts question whether this second wave, relying on attacks by smaller units, will generate enough combat power and momentum to allow Ukrainian troops to push through Russian defenses.
Gian Luca Capovin and Alexander Stronell, analysts with the British security intelligence firm Janes, said that the small-unit attack strategy “is extremely likely to result in mass casualties, equipment loss and minimal territorial gains” for Ukraine.

U.S. officials said, however, the surge in Ukrainian forces in the past week came at a time when the Ukrainians were clearing paths through some of the Russian defenses and beginning to wear down Russian troops and artillery.
A Western official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss operational details and intelligence assessments, said the Russians were stretched and still experiencing problems with logistics, supply, personnel and weapons.
General Breedlove concurred and said he still expected the Ukrainian counteroffensive to put Russia at a disadvantage.
“The Ukrainians are in a place now where they understand how they want to employ their forces,” he said. “And we’re starting to see the Russians move backwards.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

A War of Attrition

This report examines how Russia’s growing military equipment and ammunition shortages impact the Kremlin’s ability to prosecute the war in Ukraine and to carry out operations in other areas, including the Middle East and North Africa, Central Asia, and the Caucasus.

www.csis.org

This report examines the impact of Russia’s growing military equipment and ammunition shortages on the Kremlin’s ability to prosecute the war in Ukraine and to carry out operations in other areas. In doing so, it focuses on availability of artillery ammunition, as well as five weapons categories of central importance for Russia’s ability to sustain operations: tanks, artillery, uncrewed aerial vehicles, electronic warfare systems, and long-range precision strike weapons. For each category, the report examines how the size and composition of Russian weapons portfolios in Ukraine are changing under the twin influences of attrition and sanctions, while taking account of Russian efforts to increase defense production and otherwise replenish its forces. It concludes by assessing the impact of Russia’s declining weapons portfolios in Ukraine on its ability to carry out future operations against Kyiv, as well as in other regions of interest such as Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and the Caucasus.

The report finds that the magnitude of Russian equipment losses and ammunition usage in Ukraine is having a major negative effect on the Kremlin’s ability to prosecute the war. In each of the five categories, Russian defense production is struggling to keep pace with its growing losses on the battlefield due to sanctions and capacity limitations, although they have been offset to some extent by various stopgap measures. The resulting decline in the size and quality of Russian weapons portfolio in Ukraine are further undermining Russia’s ability to sustain operations. Growing signs of an impending ammunition shortage are particularly problematic since Russian forces in Ukraine rely so heavily on artillery to sustain operations. By contrast, the Ukrainian military has been able to rely on a steady influx of Western military equipment to replenish its forces and preserve its combat power.

I thought the section on Artillery and artillery ammunition starting on Page 9 was good. Worth a read.

However, defensive use of artillery consumes large amounts of ammunition. Acute ammunition shortages would thus weaken Russian defensive capabilities, opening up additional opportunities for Ukrainian counteroffensives.

 

[themeistersinger]

Russia Must Be Denied the Weapons It Needs to Fight Ukraine

While Congress and Pentagon officials debate what weaponry they might provide Ukraine, there is a broader missing piece in U.S. strategy: Denial of weaponry to Russian forces.

www.19fortyfive.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Does Russia Hold the Naval Advantage in the Black Sea?

Russia’s decision to abrogate the Black Sea Grain Initiative has brought the naval war firmly back into focus.

www.19fortyfive.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Why There Will Be No Negotiating with Putin - The Moscow Times

Opinion | Читайте русскую версию здесь. “No one wants to negotiate with Russia,” President Vladimir Putin has complained several times on camera in recent days.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Russia Strikes Ukraine Blood Center, Aeronautics Group - Zelensky - The Moscow Times

Moscow escalated its attacks in Ukraine on Saturday, with President Volodymyr Zelensky denouncing a deadly strike on a blood transfusion centre as a "war crime."

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[themeistersinger]

The State of the Ukrainian 2023 Campaign

Progress and Challenges

mickryan.substack.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Ukraine war latest: Military confirms strikes on key bridges linking occupied Crimea with mainland Ukraine

Key developments on Aug. 6: * Ukraine hit two bridges in Crimea * Ukrainian forces hit Russian positions, ammo depots * Drone attack reported near Moscow * Ukraine's Air Force: 30 missiles, 27 drones shot down overnight Ukraine targeted key bridges that connect occupied Crimea to mainland...

kyivindependent.com

 

[themeistersinger]

MSN

www.msn.com

Why U.S. War Tactics Are Failing in Ukraine

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Alleged Russian informant detained in connection with Zelensky assassination plot, Ukraine security service says

Ukraine struck two key bridges linking the Russian-occupied Kherson region to Crimea on Sunday, the latest in a series of attacks on Moscow's infrastructure. Follow here for live updates.

www.cnn.com

The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) says it has detained a Russian informant "who was preparing a Russian airstrike in the Mykolaiv region during the visit of the President of Ukraine."

The alleged informant "on the eve of the recent trip of the President of Ukraine to Mykolaiv region, was gathering intelligence about the planned visit," the SBU said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was in the region at the end of July.

The SBU said in a statement that the alleged conspirator "tried to establish the time and list of locations of the approximate route of the Head of State in the territory of the region."

However, SBU agents had obtained information about the "subversive activities of the suspect" and adopted additional security measures.

In monitoring the communications of the woman, the SBU had established that she also had the task of identifying the location of electronic warfare systems and warehouses with ammunition of the armed forces.

According to the investigation, the perpetrator was a resident of Ochakov, southern Ukraine, and a former saleswoman in a military store on the territory of one of the military units of the region.

She allegedly traveled around the territory of the district and filmed the locations of Ukrainian objects.

The woman has not been named.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

‘It’s Not a Sprint,’ Ukraine’s Marines Insist. ‘It’s a Marathon.’

Journalists from The Times spent two weeks with troops from brigades trained and supplied by NATO to get their take on how, and where, the counteroffensive is going.

www.nytimes.com

Good read. Tough fighting.

The Ukrainian military does not release numbers of dead and wounded, but Oleksandr acknowledged that his brigade had taken heavy casualties in the first days of the counteroffensive in June, when his troops ran into minefields and came under an onslaught of Russian artillery and airstrikes. He did not dwell on the fighting, but he said that for many of his troops it was their first time in battle and a brutal introduction.

Soldiers along the front line blamed commanders for pushing raw recruits into battle and using untested units to spearhead the counteroffensive. Others criticized the inadequacy of a few weeks of basic training in various NATO countries. A few complained that some of the Western vehicles were inappropriate for the task. In particular, they pointed to American MaxxPros, armored vehicles that were designed for fighting a counterinsurgency rather than facing the firepower of the Russian Army.
Oleksandr said he had often argued with his trainers in the United States. “They fought in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the enemy there is not like the Russians,” he said.
But Ukrainian officials said that they had little choice but to train recruits because their experienced troops were so thinly stretched along the front line that they could not afford to withdraw them.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Zelensky praises air defense systems:

In his nightly video address on Sunday, Zelenskiy said advanced air defence systems, including the U.S.-built Patriot and Germany's IRIS-T, were proving "highly effective" and had "already yielded significant results".

How US Patriot defences are reducing ‘unstoppable’ Russian missiles to shrapnel

A Ukrainian colonel revealed authorities were on the brink of evacuating the capital last December due to airstrikes

www.thetimes.co.uk

With a hypersonic missile slung under its belly, a Russian MiG-31K bomber roared into the air from Savasleyka airbase, 180 miles east of Moscow. It was less than 24 hours after suspected Ukrainian drones had struck at the Kremlin, and the pilot had orders to exact revenge.
The jet dropped its load as it raced towards the Ukrainian border. A short fall, blaze of flame and trail of smoke later, the Kinzhal, or Dagger, was arching towards the atmosphere in the direction of Kyiv. Ukrainian air defence command had only minutes to stop the Mach 10 ballistic missile from striking the seat of President Zelensky’s government.
“We have an air situation tablet and when there is an inbound ballistic missile, a computer immediately registers it and draws a zone where it is supposed to hit,” a lieutenant colonel in the capital’s air defence command said in his first interview with international media. The Times has agreed not to publish his name to protect his relatives in occupied territory.

“It calculates its target based on its trajectory. The system drew the centre of the circle exactly over the Maidan — they were targeting the government district precisely.”

Ukraine now has more than two Patriot batteries which have revolutionised its air defences and breathed new life into the embattled capital, defeating a series of attacks designed to wipe them out with no losses. Ukraine has even been able to dispatch a roving battery north to the border, where it surprised the Kremlin by shooting down five aircraft over Russian airspace in a single day, then south to support the counteroffensive.
“Around Kyiv we now have the most powerful air defence system in the world. And in fact throughout history,” the colonel said, claiming 215 Russian missile and drone intercepts over Kyiv in May and June alone. “It’s Patriots, it’s Nasams, it’s German Iris, S-300, it’s French Crotale. The Russians have realised that banging your head into the wall where it’s thickest is pointless.”

British ingenuity is also playing a role in the city’s defences, the colonel revealed. The Ministry of Defence has supplied several Supacat trucks rigged by British engineers to fire advanced short-range air-to-air missiles (Asraam). They are deployed primarily to intercept swarms of Russia’s Iranian-supplied Shahed suicide drones, but some of the systems are also supporting Ukraine’s counteroffensive.
The high-mobility vehicles can enter an area where Russian attack helicopters are operating, shoot and move away. Unlike other systems like Starstreak, the Asraam do not require a line of sight and can lock onto targets themselves if fired into their vicinity.
Despite the array of advanced weaponry in Ukraine’s arsenal, the colonel warned that Kyiv would again be vulnerable this winter unless western partners drastically increased weapons production and urgently sent older, mothballed systems to Ukraine.
“You can’t plan a war with an annual production of 150-160 Patriot missiles. We fired those in a month,” he said, sounding the alarm that his men were running out of ammunition. “If we wait until autumn, until mid-October, they will hit the energy infrastructure again. This is a certainty. This winter will be even more difficult than the previous one.”

Wow if true:

He disclosed that in December Ukrainian authorities had been on the brink of ordering the complete evacuation of Kyiv due to the intensity of Russian airstrikes. “Not many people know this, but Kyiv was on the verge of evacuation,” he said. “There was one battle that, in my opinion, determined the fate of Kyiv and the Russian campaign to destroy our energy sector, when 49 cruise missiles were launched at Kyiv.”
In a desperate 15 minutes on December 16, Ukraine fired dozens of missiles from its Soviet-era S-300, American Nasams and German Iris-T systems to save the city from total blackout in freezing temperatures.
“If we had allowed this strike to succeed, Kyiv would have had to be evacuated. And it is very difficult to evacuate two and a half million people,” the colonel said.
Without more missiles, his forces would be unable to protect those millions of people from sub-zero temperatures this winter, he argued, unleashing a new wave of Ukrainian refugees westwards toward the UK and the EU.

The colonel accused some countries in the West of failing to grasp the nature of Putin’s threat to Europe and the response required. He said he had been told by western officials his air defence requirements were “too expensive”.
“The Baltic states are the people who really understand. They give everything they can give, because they realise that if we don’t endure, then they will definitely not endure. You fight, we give, that’s it. The Poles are very good. The Scandinavian countries helped a lot, which is not publicised. The Finns, the Swedes, the Norwegians, the Danes, the British, but the rest of the world is very hard. I had an experience with the French, when they didn’t understand, they said ‘Why don’t you surrender?’ They asked that directly, ‘why don’t you give up?’ ”
The shortage of missile supplies is also threatening to derail Ukraine’s counteroffensive, he added, saying the army had run out of munitions needed to dislodge the Russians at the end of May, forcing troops to “storm fortified points head-on”.
The colonel accused politicians of counting coins over lives and considering only the value of weapons provided rather than weighing it against the cost of storing, maintaining or destroying weapons approaching obsoletion.
“We received Nasams rockets produced in 1994. In 2024, they will reach their service life limit. The disposal of an Amraam AIM-120B missile is $26,000 to $28,000. It’s easier to launch it, give it to us. Give us these missiles, we will use them,” he said.
“I talk to the military, the Americans, the British. They understand us, they themselves can’t understand why they gave us 400 M113 APCs when they have 6,000 idling. It doesn’t cost anything. It’s already just standing there. It’s going to be scrapped. It has to be maintained or decommissioned.”

The Americans have 1,100 Patriot launchers, with 40 older PAC-2 batteries in permanent storage that could completely protect Ukraine from Russian missiles, he said.
“They’ve already been paid for by the grandmothers of current US citizens. You either have them sitting around rotting away or you give them to us, we’ll use them somehow,” he added.
The Russians have adapted their tactics to avoid Patriot batteries, he said, focusing on striking cities far from the capital, such as Odesa, which are not yet covered. They are also upgrading old missiles with advanced technology and radar-absorbent skins. In recent weeks Moscow’s focus has been trying to take out the Ukrainian airfields from where British Storm Shadow missiles are launched, hitting command and logistical centres deep inside occupied territory.
“The strikes on airfields are a tribute to Storm Shadow. Thank you very much, UK, because they really proved to be very effective. With Storm Shadow, you launch a trap missile and an anti-radar missile. All at the same time in the same direction. So the Russians, if they try to intercept Storm Shadow, get an anti-radiation missile hit on their radar. Plus traps. Very, very effective stuff.”
The colonel said that Storm Shadows actually had double their published range, some 500km rather than 250km, demonstrating there was no reason for the US to continue holding out on providing Atacms missiles with a similar range, but which can be fired by Himars ground systems already in service with the Ukrainian military.
“There’s a question for American politicians — Atacms. Why don’t you give them to us? Tell me, why not, why not? We already have a thing here that can get further than Atacms,” he said. “Yes, there’s a huge price to fighting Russia, a country with a military budget greater than our state budget. We’re willing to pay for it — with our lives. If anyone thinks money is more important than our lives, please say so. Don’t make promises and then give us the bare minimum. Say it now and we won’t count on you.”

The Storm Shadow range being doubled than the published range is not something I've seen reported elsewhere, at least from what I've read. To be clear, as stated in the article, these statements were from an unnamed lieutenant colonel in Kyiv's air defense command.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine war latest: Woman arrested over 'Zelenskyy assassination plot'; Crimea holiday bookings plummet after attacks

China's attendance at peace talks in Saudi Arabia show it is not backing Vladimir Putin's aggression, an analyst has told Sky News - but the talks conclude without concrete plan to end the war.

news.sky.com

The number of Russians picking annexed Crimea as a holiday destination has dropped by nearly half in a matter of weeks, after Ukraine ramped up its attacks on infrastructure on the peninsula.

Russian daily newspaper Kommersant reports that in the second half of July, hotel bookings fell by 45% compared with the start of the month.

Experts said hotel occupancy had plummeted to between 50 and 60%.

Tourism is crucial both to Crimea's economy and to the Kremlin's ability to project that its annexation in 2014 is going well.

But the combination of a relatively short high season and high prices for low-quality services has left the sector struggling.

Finnish researchers Aleksander Panasiuk and Halyna Zubrytska say Russia's government has denied any sense of Crimean tourism being in crisis, despite the peninsula's long-standing political, economic, transport and energy problems.

 

[The Z Machine]

I think it's pretty obvious that tactics based on the assumption of air superiority are going to not work well when you don't have that air cover and are actually on the losing side of that equation. The Russian helicopters are really problematic. The rapid deployment of cheap attritable drones to the front lines for real time battlefield intelligence gathering and targeting of artillery strikes is likely another area that US tactics doesn't have a ready answer for at the moment.

 

[themeistersinger]

https://redstate.com/streiff/2023/08/07/ukraine-peace-talks-move-forward-with-china-present-and-russia-excluded-n789033

Ukraine Peace Talks Move Forward With China Present and Russia Excluded

 

[rockaction]

all because that scumbag Joe Biden is in cahoots with the leaders in ukraine. here's 400bil, don't tell anyone about our bribery and pay to play dealings. meanwhile the ukrainian leaders are driving ferrarris and land in other regions with US tax payer money.why are we in ukraine again? oh, because someone has dirt on Biden and he's paying them off with 'military' aid.
meanwhile back at home crime goes through the roof, more homelessness than ever and Hunter is leaving coke in the white house.

I know it's hard, but this is an apolitical thread. Just information about the war. No speculation, really. No domestic politics.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine war latest: Putin to equip national guard with heavy weaponry 'to ensure regime security'; restoring borders 'may not end war'

Vladimir Putin is to equip his national guard with heavy weaponry to strengthen the security of his regime, the UK MoD has said. Meanwhile, at least seven people have died and 31 injured after an "ordinary residential building" was struck by Russian missiles twice last night.

news.sky.com

Vladimir Putin is set to equip the Russian National Guard with heavy weaponry as he looks to strengthen the security of his regime, the UK's Ministry of Defence (MoD) has said.

The Russian president signed a law allowing Rosgvardia to receive more equipment, which could include artillery and attack helicopters, at the end of last week.

"The move suggests the Kremlin is doubling down on resourcing Rosgvardia as one of the key organisations to ensure regime security", the MoD said.

Ukraine war latest: Putin to equip national guard with heavy weaponry 'to ensure regime security'; restoring borders 'may not end war'

Vladimir Putin is to equip his national guard with heavy weaponry to strengthen the security of his regime, the UK MoD has said. Meanwhile, at least seven people have died and 31 injured after an "ordinary residential building" was struck by Russian missiles twice last night.

news.sky.com

Ukrainian authorities say they have uncovered a network of women in the Donetsk region who they claim are Russian agents.
The women allegedly worked both for Russia's federal security service and the Wagner group, collecting intelligence on Ukrainian military equipment in the region.

Police say the women focused on gathering information on attack helicopters and heavily armoured vehicles for transporting Ukrainian troops, and took photos for Moscow.
Three women in the network have been arrested, while a fourth is said to have left for Russia soon after the start of the invasion.

All four were residents of the Pokrovskyi district, just northwest of the city of Donetsk, which remains under Russian occupation.

If convicted, they face life in prison.

If you were following this page yesterday, you'll remember that a woman was arrested yesterday on suspicion of plotting with Russian to assassinate Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a recent trip to Mykolaiv. This appears to be unrelated.

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front on August 7. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in the Berdyansk (western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast

www.understandingwar.org

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least two sectors of the front on August 7. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in the Berdyansk (western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast area) and Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) directions.[1] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that fighting is ongoing south of Bakhmut and that eastern Ukraine has been the epicenter of hostilities in the past week.[2] Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged in an interview published on August 6 with Argentine news outlet La Nacion that the tempo of counteroffensive operations is slower than expected and stated that patience is necessary in order for Ukraine to win.[3] Zelensky stated that Ukrainian forces are in the offensive phase of operations and continue to hold the initiative.[4]

China's increasing misalignment with Russia on any settlement to end the war in Ukraine was reportedly evident at the talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia on August 5-6. The Financial Times reported that the Chinese representatives at the meeting were “constructive” and “keen to show that [China] is not Russia.”[10] The Financial Times quoted one European diplomat present at the talks as saying that the “mere presence of China shows Russia is more and more isolated.”[11] The Chinese delegation reportedly indicated its willingness to attend the next meeting of a similar format that will likely also exclude Russia.[12] A Russian insider source alleged that Russia has rejected China's 12-point peace plan for the war in Ukraine from February 2023 (which the Chinese delegation re-introduced during the talks in Saudi Arabia) and that some Chinese elites are secretly expressing their dissatisfaction with the actions of the Russian leadership regarding a peaceful settlement of the war in Ukraine.[13] These reports from the talks in Saudi Arabia and insider allegations, if true, align with ISW’s previous assessments that China is not fully aligned with Russia on the issue of Ukraine and that Russia and China’s relationship is not a “no limits partnership” as the Kremlin desires.[14]

The following piece strikes a different tone on the above subject: https://www.politico.eu/article/china-russia-ukraine-war-world-peace-forum/

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/paulmcleary/status/1688544806853648384

JUST IN: The Army is up to making 24K artillery shells/month, Army acquisition chief Doug Bush says this morning. "Soon to get to 28,000 a month with a path to in excess of 80,000 a month over the following year. So that ramp up is really about to kick in."

https://twitter.com/FRHoffmann1/status/1688579209004761088

Depending on how many Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG ALCMs Ukraine has received, and assuming Ukraine maintains its current rate of consumption of about 75 missiles per month, it will run out of long-range strike capabilities somewhere between October 2023 and January 2024. 1/

After attacking Ukraine wheat exports, Russia faces own shipping challenge

Russia's lack of ships and Western grain traders' shrinking appetite for business with Moscow are adding to rising costs of moving Russian wheat, at a time when the war in Ukraine has spilled perilously close to vital Black Sea supply routes.

www.reuters.com

Russia's lack of ships and Western grain traders' shrinking appetite for business with Moscow are adding to rising costs of moving Russian wheat, at a time when the war in Ukraine has spilled perilously close to vital Black Sea supply routes.

Russian "double-tap" attack in Pokrovsk injures workers responding to first blast, officials say

The Ukrainian counteroffensive hasn't been easy and is "happening probably slower" than some had hoped, President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged in remarks from a meeting Sunday released by his office on Tuesday.

www.cnn.com

Two Russian Iskander missiles hit the eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk within 30-40 minutes of each other, with the second missile injuring and killing emergency service workers responding to the first hit, according to Serhii Dobriak, head of Pokrovsk City Military Administration.

“The first missile hit at 19:15, the second at 19:52. This is a standard Russo-fascist scenario – 30-40 minutes between missiles. When the State Emergency Service and rescuers arrive to save people, the second missile hits and so the number of victims increases,” Dobriak said on Telegram.

“The blast radius was very large – windows in many buildings were smashed, at least 2,000 windows,” he added.

Local officials said a residential building, hotel, shops and administrative buildings were damaged. The Druzhba (Friendship) Hotel and Corleone pizzeria, both popular with journalists, were damaged in the attack according to geolocated footage from the scene.

Pavlo Kyrylenko, head of Donetsk Regional Military Administration, said in an update that among the seven people killed were five civilians, a rescuer and a serviceman.

He said there were 81 people injured, including 39 civilians, two children, 31 police officers, seven rescuers and four military personnel.

Video of aftermath: https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1688607196416761857

Ukraine declares war on Russia’s Black Sea shipping

Kyiv warns it’s ‘completely unjustifiable’ for Western vessels to continue shipping Russian oil.

www.politico.eu

"Everything the Russians are moving back and forth on the Black Sea are our valid military targets," Oleg Ustenko, an economic adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, told POLITICO, saying the move was retaliation for Russia withdrawing from the U.N.-brokered Black Sea grain deal and unleashing a series of missile attacks on agricultural stores and ports.

Ukraine counter-offensive against Russia yields only small gains in first 2 months

Ukrainian troops have advanced, at most, about 10 miles in two areas. Is the counter-offensive working?

www.bbc.com

Marina Miron, a defence expert at King's College London, says Ukraine has had to scale back its ambitions in the south, including aspirations to take back Crimea.
"I don't think that will happen anytime soon," she says.
Dr Miron says the best they can hope for is potentially retaking Tokmak, which lies on a key route in the south-east of the country - an area which acts as a logistical hub for Russian forces.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1688688902817685504

Video from Ukraine's 30th Mechanized Brigade of a reported HIMARS GMLRS strike on a Russian Msta-B (more likely D-20) howitzer in the Bakhmut area.

BBC video segment from Moscow: https://twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1688567957289627650

 

[Don't Toews Me]

U.S.-Made Cluster Munitions Fuel Ukrainian Counteroffensive

The bombs are destroying Russian trenches and artillery systems in an area where Ukrainian troops had struggled to advance.

www.wsj.com

Newly delivered, American-made cluster munitions have given fresh impetus to Ukraine’s campaign to retake territory captured by Russia, after weeks of little progress.
Ukrainian soldiers say they have used the cluster bombs—which release dozens of smaller bomblets and can cause devastation over a broader area than ordinary artillery shells—to hit concentrations of Russian infantry, groups of vehicles and other targets, clearing the way for ground advances.
Kyiv’s counteroffensive operations have struggled in the face of wide minefields and Moscow’s superior air power, which have impeded large-scale efforts to use Western-supplied tanks and armored vehicles to reach and punch through lines of entrenched Russian forces.
While the cluster bombs alone won’t tilt the battlefield balance of power decisively in Ukraine’s favor, soldiers say they have helped them retake Russian positions that they had struggled to reach.
The munitions have been coupled with a change in tactics, which has allowed Ukrainian troops to advance to within striking distance of the main Russian defensive lines in some places. That progress has come with substantial casualties.

“The cluster bombs are good. They are effective,” said Capt. Anatoliy Kharchenko, commander of a reconnaissance company. “But the Russians are dug in deep, and they learn quickly.”
Kharchenko said Russian trenches can be 7 feet deep and that the Russians are adapting by spreading their troops more thinly to avoid heavy losses.
Recent fighting around the village of Robotyne, southeast of Zaporizhzhia city, has demonstrated the effectiveness of the new weapon in Ukraine’s arsenal.
In late July, a platoon was pinned down east of the village, taking heavy Russian fire. The unit radioed its commander, asking to withdraw. He told the platoon to take cover instead. Cluster bombs flew overhead. One soldier said he heard what sounded like rain, followed by chaos on Russian radio channels.

“They were yelling, ‘We have lots of wounded. We need to evacuate. We’re pulling back,’” the Ukrainian soldier said. The platoon moved forward to capture the Russian position, soldiers said.
Ukraine still hasn’t reached the most formidable Russian defenses, a series of trenches, tank traps and other barriers. Military experts say Ukraine likely will need its Leopard 2 tanks and other Western-provided armored vehicles to push through those lines.
To preserve those vehicles, which it was losing in numbers in minefields in early June, the Ukrainian military switched tactics. Now, infantry—bolstered by reserves called in from other units—are leading the advances through minefields on foot.
In concert with the strategic changes, soldiers said, Ukrainian forces now believe they have a chance for a breakthrough.

Last week, as the 16-member platoon of Oleksandr, a 33-year-old infantry private, advanced toward a Russian position, it came under heavy fire from Russian machine guns. The Ukrainians were forced to retreat.
Then Ukraine hit the tree line hiding the Russian forces with cluster munitions. Brush and grass caught fire. When the next assault began, Oleksandr could see the Russians he was firing at, who were no longer concealed in the scrub.
His platoon captured the position, killing about 12 Russians and taking several others captive. The prisoners had suffered concussions and burns from the cluster bombs, he said.
“With the cluster bombs, you fire three times and the trees totally collapse,” he said, adding that there was less incoming fire after the cluster attack. Because the munitions cause damage across a wide area, he said, they didn’t need to be as accurate to be effective.
“Even if you miss a little, it still works,” he said.

Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, a former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe, said the U.S. sent cluster munitions instead of more howitzer ammunition, which is running low in the West. He expected cluster bombs would be more effective. They were designed for an army that was outnumbered, as Ukraine is now.
“Part of the way you deal with mass formations is with this scatterable munition,” he said. “If you’re sitting in an open trench, you’re going to pay a huge price due to these things.”
Videos posted recently on social media show Russian soldiers with half a dozen small wounds after Ukrainian cluster munition attacks. Hodges said the bombs also fit with what he saw as a shift in Ukrainian strategy to target Russian artillery pieces.
“These will really knock out artillery as long as they can reach it,” he said.

A soldier in an artillery unit who has fired the cluster munitions said they were most effective in fields, where they dispersed over a wider area.
“Cluster munitions are important, but they’re not a turning point,” he said, adding that it was important to have different kinds of artillery for different situations.
Usually, infantrymen said, artillery units fire a mix of different munitions at a Russian position before they advance on foot. Still, the human cost of the progress around Robotyne has been steep.
“We’re demining the fields with bodies,” said a platoon commander from another of the newly formed, Western-trained brigades. “It’s awful.”
Oleksandr Pershin, an infantryman, said that in the fields east of Robotyne, the ability of cluster munitions to wipe out tree cover was invaluable. During a recent assault on a Russian position, he said, there was no tree left above waist height.
“Everything else was destroyed,” he said, “mostly from the cluster munitions.”
Once his unit had taken that position, he said, they tried to keep pushing through the trees toward the next Russian line. For 24 hours, they made a series of assaults but kept getting pushed back, as the Russians sprayed them with machine-gun fire.
Eventually, they were ordered to dig trenches where they were.
While Pershin, 34, was digging, a rocket landed near him, spraying him with shrapnel and sending him to the hospital. As he spoke, his arm was in a sling and bandages covered wounds all over his body. Of 60 men in the assault, he said, 45 had been injured or killed.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine war latest: Wagner plotting 'subversive activities' in Ukraine - as Putin 'doubling down' on regime security

Wagner is reportedly building a tent city to house 1,000 mercenaries around 15 miles from the Ukrainian border. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin is to equip his national guard with heavy weaponry to strengthen the security of his regime, the UK MoD has said.

news.sky.com

When Yevgeny Prigozhin was supposedly exiled to Belarus after June's short-lived mutiny, he appeared to take his Wagner mercenaries with him.

It now seems they could be there for some time.

Wagner is reportedly building a tent city to house around 1,000 mercenaries, at the Zyabrovka airfield around 15 miles from the Ukrainian border.

The claims come from the Ukrainian National Resistance Centre, which alleges the camp will be used for "subversive activities" in the Chernihiv region - an area that remains under Ukraine's control.

Wagner has some history holding activities provocatively close to other countries' borders.

The Institute for the Study of War says Wagner has conducted military training exercises near Brest, one of Belarus's largest cities, within a kilometre of the Polish border.

Ukraine war latest: Wagner plotting 'subversive activities' in Ukraine - as Putin 'doubling down' on regime security

Wagner is reportedly building a tent city to house 1,000 mercenaries around 15 miles from the Ukrainian border. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin is to equip his national guard with heavy weaponry to strengthen the security of his regime, the UK MoD has said.

news.sky.com

An attempted Russian cyber attack has been foiled by Ukrainian special services, according Kyiv's national security service.

Russian hackers tried to penetrate the Ukrainian Armed Forces' combat information centre to access "sensitive information" about the locations of troops and their technical support, the SBU said.

The attack was launched by a sophisticated Russian team, known as Sandworm.

"As a result of complex measures, SBU exposed and blocked the illegal actions of Russian hackers who tried to penetrate Ukrainian military networks and organise intelligence gathering," it said on Telegram.

Cyber specialists found the hackers planned to use Ukrainian military tablets to spread viruses in the battle system, it added.

Ukraine has reported an increase in Russian attempts to hack computer systems belonging to the government, armed forces and energy sector.

Russia has repeatedly denied the accusations.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Western allies receive increasingly ‘sobering’ updates on Ukraine’s counteroffensive: ‘This is the most difficult time of the war’

Weeks into Ukraine’s highly anticipated counteroffensive, Western officials describe increasingly “sobering” assessments about Ukrainian forces’ ability to retake significant territory, four senior US and western officials briefed on the latest intelligence told CNN.

“They’re still going to see, for the next couple of weeks, if there is a chance of making some progress. But for them to really make progress that would change the balance of this conflict, I think, it’s extremely, highly unlikely,” a senior western diplomat told CNN.

“Our briefings are sobering. We’re reminded of the challenges they face,” said Rep. Mike Quigley, an Illinois Democrat who recently returned from meetings in Europe with US commanders training Ukrainian armored forces. “This is the most difficult time of the war.”


The primary challenge for Ukrainian forces is the continued difficulty of breaking through Russia’s multi-layered defensive lines in the eastern and southern parts of the country, which are marked by tens of thousands of mines and vast networks of trenches. Ukrainian forces have incurred staggering losses there, leading Ukrainian commanders to hold back some units to regroup and reduce casualties.

“Russians have a number of defensive lines and they [Ukrainian forces] haven’t really gone through the first line,” said a senior Western diplomat. “Even if they would keep on fighting for the next several weeks, if they haven’t been able to make more breakthroughs throughout these last seven, eight weeks, what is the likelihood that they will suddenly, with more depleted forces, make them? Because the conditions are so hard.”

A senior US official said the US recognizes the difficulties Ukrainian forces are facing, though retains hope for renewed progress.

“We all recognize this is going harder and slower than anyone would like – including the Ukrainians – but we still believe there’s time and space for them to be able make progress,” this official said.

Multiple officials said the approach of fall, when weather and fighting conditions are expected to worsen, gives Ukrainian forces a limited window to push forward.

In addition, Western officials say the slow progress has exposed the difficulty of transforming Ukrainian forces into combined mechanized fighting units, sometimes with as few as eight weeks of training on western-supplied tanks and other new weapons systems. The lack of progress on the ground is one reason Ukrainian forces have been striking more often inside Russian territory “to try and show Russian vulnerability,” said a senior US military official.

Ukraine’s armed forces chief, Gen. Valerii Zaluzhnyi, told US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley that Ukrainian forces are step by step creating conditions for advancing. Zaluzhnyi added that he had told Milley that Ukraine’s defenses were steadfast.

“Our soldiers are doing their best. The enemy is conducting active assault actions in a number of directions, but is not succeeding,” Zaluzhnyi told Milley, according to a read out issued by the Ukrainian government.

Talking about the situation in the south, where Ukrainian forces have struggled to gain ground, Zaluzhnyi said, “Heavy fighting continues, Ukrainian troops step by step continue to create conditions for advancing. The initiative is on our side.”

These latest assessments represent a marked change from the optimism at the start of the counteroffensive. These officials say those expectations were “unrealistic” and are now contributing to pressure on Ukraine from some in the West to begin peace negotiations, including considering the possibility of territorial concessions.

“Putin is waiting for this. He can sacrifice bodies and buy time,” Quigley said.

Some officials fear the widening gap between expectations and results will spark a “blame game” among Ukrainian officials and their western supporters, which may create divisions within the alliance which has remained largely intact nearly two years into the war.

“The problem, of course, here is the prospect of the blame game that the Ukrainians would then blame it on us,” said a senior western diplomat.

Last month at the Aspen Security Forum, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky pointed to the slow arrival of more advanced weapons systems from the West as reason for Ukrainian forces’ slow progress so far.

“We did plan to start [the counteroffensive] in spring, but we didn’t,” Zelensky said. “Because frankly, we have not enough munitions, and armaments, and not enough properly trained brigades. I mean properly trained in these weapons.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian forces appear to have conducted a limited raid across the Dnipro River and landed on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast, although it remains unclear whether Ukrainian troops have established an enduring presence on the east bank. Several

www.understandingwar.org

Ukrainian forces appear to have conducted a limited raid across the Dnipro River and landed on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast, although it remains unclear whether Ukrainian troops have established an enduring presence on the east bank. Several Russian milbloggers reported on August 8 that Ukrainian forces landed up to seven boats, each carrying around six to seven people, on the east bank of the Dnipro near the settlement of Kozachi Laheri, broke through Russian defensive lines, and advanced up to 800 meters deep.[1] A Russian milblogger noted that the Russian command recently redeployed a “prepared grouping” of Russian airborne (VDV) personnel from the Kozachi Laheri area to Zaporizhia Oblast and replaced them with mobilized fighters from an unspecified unit, thereby weakening Russian defensive power in this area.[2] Kherson Oblast occupation head Vladimir Saldo downplayed reports of the Ukrainian landing and claimed that Russian artillery fire repelled the Ukrainian boats and that there are no Ukrainian troops near Kozachi Laheri.[3] However, the majority of prominent Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces managed to utilize tactical surprise and land on the east bank before engaging Russian forces in small arms exchanges, and Saldo was likely purposefully trying to refute claims of Ukrainian presence in this area to avoid creating panic in the already-delicate Russian information space.[4] Hotspots on available NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) data from the past 24 hours in this area appear to confirm that there was significant combat, likely preceded or accompanied by artillery fire. By the end of the day on August 8, many Russian sources had updated their claims to report that Russian forces retain control over Kozachi Laheri, having pushed Ukrainian forces back to the shoreline, and that small arms skirmishes are occurring in shoreline areas near Kozachi Laheri and other east bank settlements.[5]

ISW will continue to offer a conservative assessment of the situation on the east bank of Kherson Oblast until or unless ISW observes visual confirmation of an enduring Ukrainian presence near Kozachi Laheri or other east bank settlements. ISW has not yet observed visual evidence to suggest that there are a substantial number of Ukrainian personnel or the deployment of Ukrainian vehicles near Kozachi Laheri, and the current pattern of Russian reporting is more consistent with a limited cross-river raid than a wider Ukrainian operation. Ukrainian officials have not commented on operations in this area as of this writing.

Raid on Kherson’s occupied east bank "not confirmed," Ukrainian military says

Kyiv claimed it struck a Russian command post Wednesday in the southern city of Nova Kakhovka in Kherson, as the Ukrainian military ramps up activity in the region as part of its ongoing counteroffensive. Follow here for live updates.

www.cnn.com

The reported raid on the occupied east bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region is “not confirmed” by the military’s General Staff at this stage, Ukrainian officials have said.

“The original source of this information was the Russians. And then this information was spread. These are the laws of social media development, nothing can be stopped. But as of now, the General Staff has not confirmed it," Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister, Hanna Maliar said in comments on national television on Wednesday.
"As soon as the General Staff confirms it, we will definitely discuss it if there is any news,” she added.

The raid which allegedly took place on Tuesday was reported by Russian state media and military bloggers.

Ukrainian officials alluded to an unspecified task being “completed” on Tuesday -- but did not go into any more detail.

Some context: Analysts believe Ukrainian action in Kherson is designed to keep Russian troops in the area and prevent their re-deployment to the front in Zaporizhzhia, a vitally important southern region.

Reclaiming Zaporizhzhia is the key to Kyiv's military cutting off occupied southern Ukraine from the Russia-annexed Crimean peninsula, which it has controlled since 2014. That would effectively sever the land route between territory newly claimed in Russia's invasion and territory it claimed nearly a decade ago.

 

[themeistersinger]

Another “Accident” Andrei? – The Laughing Wolf

 

[themeistersinger]

1 Killed, Dozens Injured in Blast at Optical Plant Near Moscow - The Moscow Times

Updated with new injury count, death toll.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[themeistersinger]

‘They’re Gossiping Without Us’: Saudi-Hosted Peace Summit Underscores Kremlin’s Diplomatic Dilemma - The Moscow Times

Russia’s absence from the Saudi-hosted summit to find a peace framework for the war in Ukraine exposed the Kremlin’s vulnerabilities despite the fact that no final joint statement or document was signed, four current and former Russian officials familiar with Russia’s diplomacy admitted to The...

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[themeistersinger]

The Russo-Ukrainian War Has Bolstered Ukraine’s Nonstate Alliance Network - The Moscow Times

Opinion | President Vladimir Putin and Russia have given Ukraine an excuse to provide a haven for organizations aimed at destroying the current Russian state and its allies in Chechnya and Belarus.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[themeistersinger]

https://mickryan.substack.com/p/the-many-campaigns-of-ukraine

 

[themeistersinger]

Ukraine’s slow counteroffensive is a wake-up call for the West

Ukraine’s lack of counteroffensive progress over the past two months should serve as a wake-up call for Western leaders. Their response will shape the geopolitical landscape for decades to come, writes Maksym Skrypchenko.

www.atlanticcouncil.org

 

[themeistersinger]

Russian Orthodox leader Patriarch Kirill’s unholy war against Ukraine

Russia's Unholy War: Russian Orthodox Church leader Patriarch Kirill has provided the ideological justification for Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine and Russian efforts to eliminate Ukrainian national identity.

www.atlanticcouncil.org

 

[themeistersinger]

Can Sanctions Bring Moscow to Its Knees?

Though economic penalties may be slowly crippling the Russian economy, they don’t appear to be changing the Kremlin’s mind on Ukraine.

www.city-journal.org

 

[Don't Toews Me]

"Massive" drone attack destroys oil depot in western Ukraine, military official says

Two drones were shot down as they approached Moscow, the Russian capital's mayor said, the second such attempted attack reported by the official in two days. Follow here for live updates.

www.cnn.com

A "massive" Russian drone attack destroyed an oil depot in Ukraine's western Rivne region overnight, a Ukrainian military official said Thursday.

In a video from the scene in Dubno district, posted on Telegram, head of the Rivne regional military administration Vitalii Koval said first responders were working to put out a fire.

The video showed a large fire and plumes of smoke rising from the oil depot.

No casualties were reported, Koval said.

Kyiv submits report to Pentagon on cluster munition use

Two drones were shot down as they approached Moscow, the Russian capital's mayor said, the second such attempted attack reported by the official in two days. Follow here for live updates.

www.cnn.com

Ukraine has provided the Pentagon with a report about the use of controversial American cluster munitions in the fight with Russia, a Ukrainian official told CNN on Wednesday.

The official said the information transmitted to the Defense Department included both the number of rounds fired and the number of Russian targets destroyed, though the official declined to say what those figures are.

The expected report was a request by the US as part of the agreement to send artillery rounds with cluster bomblets — known as DPICMs — to Ukraine. In an interview with CNN last month, Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said he was planning to submit the report to his counterpart, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.

CNN has asked the Pentagon for comment.

Ukrainian officials have said they expect the DPICMs to be more effective than standard artillery rounds, particularly against large groupings of Russian troops and equipment. Last month, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said they were “having an impact on Russia’s defensive formations and Russia’s defensive maneuvering.”

The US, Russia and Ukraine are not signatories to the Convention on Cluster Munitions which bans the production and use of the weapons and was signed by more than 100 countries.

Ukraine war latest: Russia 'scaring' citizens in internet crackdown; 'massive' drone strike destroys oil depot

Russia is increasing efforts to stop its people accessing the wider internet, according to British intelligence. And a "massive" drone strike has destroyed an oil depot in western Ukraine, a military official has said.

news.sky.com

Poland is being "cautious" by sending troops to the Belarusian border, a former military official has said.

The country is set to send up to 10,000 troops to bolster border defences and "scare away" potential attackers.

The decision came after concerns were raised about hundreds of Russian mercenary Wagner fighters arriving in Belarus last month, with the country's president stating on multiple occasions he was stopping them from attacking Poland.

"I wouldn't say they've been overcautious. They're being cautious," Lieutenant General Sir Simon Mayall, the former deputy chief of the defence staff, told Sky News.

He explained Poland is rearming at the moment, and are assessing a "rather dangerous frontier province" with Belarus.

"They've had a very long, rather tricky relationship with Belarus," he added.

"In many ways, God helps those who help themselves".

Many Western analysts have said Poland does not need to worry about an attack, with Belarusian forces lacking sufficient military capacity.

Yandex co-founder Volozh slams Russia's 'barbaric' invasion of Ukraine

The co-founder of Russian internet giant Yandex , Arkady Volozh, on Thursday condemned what he described as Russia's "barbaric" invasion of Ukraine, days after criticism in Russia over his apparent efforts to distance himself from the country.

www.reuters.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

German official accused of spying for Russia

The man, named only as Thomas H, worked for an office dealing with military equipment and IT.

www.bbc.com

Russian ‘revenge’ mission: Ukraine braces as Kremlin steps up attacks on recaptured areas

Moscow tests Kyiv’s fortifications on the northeastern front.

www.politico.eu

Russia is intensifying its attacks in Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region as it aims to retake territory which it lost during Ukraine’s stunning counteroffensive last fall.

With Ukraine now pushing on the southern front, where Kyiv has liberated settlements and destroyed Russian logistics, the Kremlin’s invading forces are heavily targeting Kupiansk, an important logistics hub in the Kharkiv region.

The renewed Russian offensive comes as fighting in Ukraine’s east is heavily bogged down in a war of attrition, with both sides struggling to make big gains. Ukraine’s counteroffensives faces heavily fortified Russian positions, as Moscow’s forces learn lessons from a total wipeout last September when Ukraine stormed the Kharkiv region. And amid the grinding stalemate in the south and east, the Kremlin’s troops are pivoting to a major assault in the northeast.

“Russians are aiming to retake the Kharkiv region to take revenge for their loss there last year,” Serhii Cherevatyi, spokesman for Ukraine’s Armed Forces Command East told POLITICO. “But we’re ready, we know their plans, we have built a strong defense line. Plus, there Russians will face an army under the command of one of the most experienced Ukrainian generals — Sirskiy.”

Ukraine Land Forces Commander General Oleksandr Sirskiy was behind last year’s rapid Ukrainian success in the Kharkiv region, where it pushed Russian occupiers out in a lightning counterattack. The Russian front collapsed within days, and towns including Kupiansk came back under Ukrainian control.

But in the last 24 hours Russia has conducted 16 airstrikes and shelled Ukrainian positions 559 times on the northeastern front, Cherevatyi said. The Russians attacked four settlements in the Kharkiv region, two villages in the nearby Luhansk region and three in the Donetsk region. “The enemy also tried to storm the positions of the defense forces. Three attacks took place in the Kupiansk direction,” he added.

Intensified Russian shelling forced Kharkiv regional authorities to consider evacuating more than 11,000 people from 53 settlements on the front line, said Oleh Synegubov, Kharkiv regional governor. In the last day, Russia has massively bombarded populated areas of Bohodukhiv, Kharkiv, Chuhuiv, Izyum, and Kupiansk districts using guided air bombs and other weapons.

So far, Synegubov added, the Russian attacks have not yielded any success in the Kharkiv region.

From Robots to Recycled Vapes, Ukraine’s War Effort Gets Inventive

The battered country is nurturing a cottage industry of military gadgetry, and the pipeline of science and tech creativity is bearing fruit.

www.bloomberg.com

The science conference had all the hot topics you’d expect, from artificial intelligence to gene therapy. But this year’s annual gathering of brains in Kyiv had a decidedly Ukrainian twist — the innovations on exhibit were for war.
A maker of attack drones was diversifying to unmanned ground combat vehicles. From the Academy of Sciences came a prototype underwater robot for finding and collecting submerged land mines. One startup was developing low-cost combat communications; another, a web-based test to find warning signs of post-traumatic stress disorder, or PTSD.
In the 18 months since Russia’s invasion, Ukraine’s resilience with the help of mainly NATO-member weaponry has come to define the war. Less noticed is a cottage industry of battlefield gadgetry that’s starting to bear fruit.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Slow counteroffensive darkens mood in Ukraine

Tough read. Some excerpts:

In Smila, a small city in central Ukraine, baker Alla Blyzniuk, 42, said she sells sweets for funeral receptions daily as parents prepare to bury their children killed on the front hundreds of miles away.
Before, she said, even when the situation was painful, “people were united.” They volunteered, made meals for one another and delivered food to soldiers. Now, she said, there’s a sense of collective “disappointment.”

Blyzniuk also lives in fear that her husband or two sons of fighting age will be mobilized. She has already noticed that far fewer men walk the streets of her city than before. Ukraine does not disclose its military casualty counts, but everyone shares stories, she said, of new soldiers at the front lasting just two to three days.
“The defenders of our country should be professionals,” she said. “I’m really sad,” she added. “We Ukrainians did not deserve this destiny.”

In the Donetsk region, an Estonian Ukrainian soldier who goes by the call sign Suzie works at a stabilization point where wounded soldiers are treated before being transferred to hospitals in safer towns. On a recent day, he helped organize body bags that would soon be used in the makeshift morgue that already reeked of death.
Sometimes, he said, soldiers’ bodies are so blown apart they have to use two or three body bags to contain them. There are times when a soldier is returned with “just 15 percent of the body,” Suzie said. “I never saw so much blood before.”
“It is such a hard price for freedom,” he added.

These scenes are unfolding a world away from Kyiv, the capital, where civilians — somewhat protected by strengthened air defenses — often hardly even react to air raid sirens. But even here, painful signs of the war lurk everywhere.

On park benches, freshly wounded soldiers being treated in the capital sip coffee and smoke cigarettes before returning to their hospital beds. They watch as civilians stroll by, dogs and babies in tow.
Viktor, 34, a former restaurant waiter, is among them. He came under mortar attack in a trench on the front line in Zaporizhzhia last week. His wrist was split open and his face — now covered in scabs — was sprayed with shrapnel. His knee was also hit.
Now, in Kyiv, he sees bars and restaurants are packed and the city hums with traffic. A group of children walked by, craning their necks to look at his injuries. Viktor, who asked that his last name not be disclosed for security reasons, considered himself lucky to at least be able to walk.

Many other men in the same park are missing limbs, and Viktor’s Facebook is flooded with photos of soldiers who did not make it home at all. The images haunt him so much he no longer likes to check his phone.
“It’s too depressing,” he said.
The latest fight has been grueling. One day, it took his unit seven hours to move forward just 400 meters, he said — about a quarter of a mile. “And that was quite fast.”
He and his wife, who is also serving in the military, were due to see each other that afternoon for the first time since he was wounded. “I’ll probably cry,” he said. Once he is healed, he said, he will go back to the front.

Ruslan Proektor, 52, lost his leg this summer when he stepped on a mine fighting in the east. He was immediately wounded again when the soldier trying to carry him to safety stepped on another. Now that he is recovering in Kyiv, his wife, Anna Oliinyk, 47, said she wants “the counteroffensive to be more active.”
“We’ve got all these guys coming back from the front line without limbs,” she said, looking at her husband, who was in a wheelchair. “I want the price they paid to be reasonable. Otherwise it’s just useless, what they went through.”
Given the choice now, Proektor said, he would not sign up again. “They are taking everyone and sending them to the front line without proper preparation,” he said. “I don’t want to be in the company of unmotivated people.”
Others like him are mainly enraged at Russia — but they also aren’t afraid to criticize Ukraine.
Last week, President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that a government audit of recruitment centers discovered “revolting” practices among corrupt officials.

One soldier who goes by the call sign “Positive” and is recovering at a hospital in Kyiv after suffering concussions in Kherson and Bakhmut, said people profiting off the war “should be sent to the front line.”
Yulia Paltseva, 36, a receptionist in Kyiv, said she has been shocked by how residents of Kyiv still party and socialize. Her boyfriend is at the front and will soon be transferred to fight near Bakhmut, she said.
“All those dancing and smiling people should remember that there are those soldiers like my boyfriend in the trenches without any rotations and being shelled every day,” Paltseva said.
As for the counteroffensive, she said: “Our expectations were higher. If it’s going on, it’s going slow.”

 

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A busted Russian warship may not have seen an exploding Ukrainian drone boat coming, hinting at problems that have plagued Russia throughout its war

MSN

 

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Putin's Deal With Wagner Group Founder May Have 'Collapsed': ISW

MSN

 

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Ukrainian special forces surprised and killed dozens of Russians in a daring nighttime river raid, reports say

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Putin's War, Week 76. Russia Shut out of Peace Conference and Its Black Sea Gambit Backfires

https://redstate.com/streiff/2023/08/10/putins-war-week-76-russia-shut-out-of-peace-conference-and-its-black-sea-gambit-backfires-n788859