*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (4 Viewers)

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Russia's Luna-25 Probe Crashes on the Moon – Roscosmos - The Moscow Times

The Luna-25 probe, Russia's first Moon mission in almost 50 years, has crashed on the Moon after an incident during pre-landing maneuvers, Russian space agency Roscosmos said on Sunday.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

US grows doubtful Ukraine counteroffensive can quickly succeed

Ukrainians continued to make some small gains this week, including liberating the village of Urozhaine. But US officials are privately girding for what increasingly looks like a war of attrition that will last well into next year, while publicly reiterating continued support for Kyiv.
“It’s been about 10km of advance at most no matter where you look in this offensive,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and principal research scientist at the Center for Naval Analyses.
One point of tension between US and Ukrainian officials has centred on how Kyiv has deployed its military. US officials have encouraged Ukraine to be less risk-averse and fully commit its forces to the main axis of the counteroffensive in the south so it would have a chance of breaking through Russian lines to reach the Sea of Azov, effectively cutting Russia’s land bridge in southern Ukraine to Crimea, a critical military hub.
Washington has also urged Ukraine to send more combat power to the south, and stop concentrating on the east, where almost half of its forces are engaged. But Ukraine has instead deployed some of its best fighting units in eastern Ukraine in a battle to recapture Bakhmut.
Officials in Kyiv including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and some of the Biden administration’s critics have called for the west to offer Ukraine heavy weaponry, and say the counteroffensive’s progress will remain slow unless Washington sends more long-range fire and air power to support it.

But US officials say the US does not make enough of the tactical ballistic missiles to supply the numbers that would make a significant difference on the battlefield. They have also said they are holding back the advanced long-range missiles sought by Kyiv because of concerns that their supply could escalate the conflict with Russia.
Some analysts say Kyiv’s focus on long-range weaponry is misplaced, given its modest impact in a war increasingly fought with artillery, including the cluster munitions the US recently sent to Ukraine to make up for dwindling supplies of other munitions.
“There’s no magic wands,” Charap said. “It’s hard to make the case that long-range strike [missiles] can fix the problem of minefields or all these defences.”
He added: “It will complicate Russian logistics but that’s not the main or the only problem the Ukrainians are facing today.”

Zelenskyy hails F-16 commitment on visit to Netherlands

The Netherlands, Denmark confirm plans to transfer fighter jets, but numbers and timing are to be determined.

www.politico.eu

Rutte said the Netherlands has 42 F-16s, but it is too early to say how many will be donated. The Danish Foreign Ministry confirmed its commitment to delivering F-16s in a statement on Sunday, also without specifying the number of aircraft or the timing. Zelenskyy was reportedly expected to travel to Denmark later Sunday.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/20/europe/netherlands-denmark-f-16-fighter-jets-ukraine-intl/index.html

“At this moment, the Netherlands still owns 42 F-16s. Out of these 42, we need planes to help training in Denmark and later on in Romania,” Rutte said. He added that the Netherlands would look into whether all of the remaining planes could be supplied but stated that he could not yet give a definitive number.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Institute for the Study of War

Russian forces launched a missile strike during the day on August 19 targeting Chernihiv City center after carrying out a series of Shahed drone strikes overnight. Russian forces struck Taras Shevchenko Theater in Chernihiv City, killing seven people and

www.understandingwar.org

Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on Soltsy airbase in Novgorod Oblast and reportedly damaged strategic aircraft on August 19.[12] Geolocated images published on August 19 show smoke rising from the Soltsy airbase.[13] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and other Russian sources claimed that Russian forces shot down a Ukrainian drone using small arms and that a fire damaged one aircraft.[14] A Russian insider source claimed that the fire damaged at least two aircraft and that the Soltsy airbase housed an unspecified number of Tu-22M3 (NATO reporting name Backfire-C) long-range supersonic bombers.[15] The source also claimed that Russian forces moved the undamaged aircraft to Olenya air base, Murmask Oblast.[16]

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations on at least three sectors of the front on August 19, and advanced along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Berdyansk (Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area) and Melitopol (western Zaporizhia Oblast) directions.[17] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty stated that Ukrainian forces continue to maintain the initiative in the Bakhmut direction.[18] Geolocated footage published on August 16 indicates that Ukrainian forces recently made limited advances east of Nevelske (directly west of Donetsk City).[19] Additional geolocated footage published on August 19 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced north of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[20] CBS News reported on August 18 that anonymous US officials stated that Ukrainian forces are advancing in the direction of Tokmak (a major Russian stronghold in western Zaporizhia Oblast) and have cleared a Russian minefield north of Tokmak.[21] US officials are likely referring to recent Ukrainian advances north and east of Robotyne (about 23km northeast of Tokmak). ISW previously assessed that recent Ukrainian advances near small settlements in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and in western Zaporizhia are likely tactically significant because of the structure of Russian defensive lines.[22] These advances may allow Ukrainian forces to begin operating in less heavily mined areas of the Russian line of defense that are likely more conducive to more rapid Ukrainian gains.[23]

The Russian MoD is continuing to set conditions to possibly replace Wagner Group forces with MoD-affiliated private military companies (PMCs). A Wagner-affiliated source that there is an ongoing effort to recruit Wagner personnel to deploy to missions abroad as part of PMCs. The source claimed that unspecified Russian authorities – likely referring to Russian MoD – are forming the new “Rossiyskiy Ekpeditsionniy Korpus” (Russian Expeditionary Corps) PMC at the base of one of the advanced Spetsnaz brigades.[27] The source also claimed that the Russian MoD controls “Redut” PMC (also known as “Zvezda” PMC), which is currently recruiting personnel for missions in Africa instead of in Ukraine.[28] The source suggested that Redut PMC may have been attempting to recruit Wagner fighters to Redut’s operations in Africa, referring to a statement that Wagner commanders issued on August 9 warning fighters about calls from “second-rate” PMCs advertising jobs in Africa.[29] The Russian MoD may be attempting to lure Wagner personnel away from Wagner with new work opportunities at MoD-controlled PMCs as part of a wider effort to break up Wagner.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Video: 'Failed to learn that lesson': Retired Maj. general reacts to Ukraine counteroffensive

James "Spider" Marks: "The thing the Ukrainians are doing right now is they are expending intellectual firepower and they're expending firepower on objectives that are not directly attributing or at least contributing to the success of trying to isolate Russian forces and then as a result of that isolation, you then must reduce those forces."

Ukraine running out of options to retake significant territory

“The question here is which of the two sides is going to be worn out sooner,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, a senior fellow with the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the Center for New American Security, who visited Ukraine in July. “We shouldn’t expect the achievement of any major military objectives overnight.”
Gady said that Russia and Ukraine are now in an “attrition” phase, attempting to sap each other’s resources rather than secure significant territorial advances. With its ground forces largely stymied, Ukraine has mounted a flurry of new drone strikes on Russian soil, including targets in Moscow, but the strikes have caused minimal damage.

Ukraine’s main internal intelligence agency was behind the maritime drone attacks that recently struck a major Russian port and a Russian oil tanker near occupied Crimea, according to a Ukrainian intelligence official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter.
Kyiv’s statements on attacks in Moscow are more opaque. The government publicly distances itself from the strikes, while some officials acknowledge involvement.
But analysts caution that while the drone attacks can shift attention away from Ukraine’s slow-moving ground counteroffensive, they are unlikely to tip the balance of the war in Kyiv’s favor.
“The Ukrainians just don’t have enough capacity to build enough drones and strike deep inside Russian territory at enough targets to erode Russia’s will to fight,” said Bob Hamilton, a retired U.S. Army colonel and head of research at the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia Program.

Why Russia’s War in Ukraine Could Run for Years

From Moscow to Washington, a lack of clear and achievable strategic goals points to a long conflict.

www.wsj.com

Russia’s war on Ukraine is in danger of becoming a protracted struggle that lasts several more years. The reason isn’t just that the front-line combat is a slow-moving slog, but also that none of the main actors have political goals that are both clear and attainable.

Ukraine’s central war aim—restoring its territorial integrity—is the clearest, but appears a distant prospect given the limits of Western support. The U.S. and key European allies such as Germany want to prevent Russia from winning, but fear the costs and risks of helping Ukraine to full victory. Some Western officials are sketching out grand bargains to end the war, but they fit neither Kyiv’s nor Moscow’s goals.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s declared aims are the most elastic, ranging from ambitious imperial schemes to more limited land grabs, and shifting with Russia’s military fortunes. His long-term objective of bringing Ukraine back under Moscow’s sway looks unrealistic now, but Ukrainians believe he would treat smaller gains as mere steppingstones, rendering treacherous any peace based on concessions.

A drawback of the U.S.’s incremental approach to military aid: Without a battlefield breakthrough, Kyiv doesn’t want to negotiate peace—and Moscow doesn’t have to.

“By structuring our approach around the goal of no escalation, around what we don’t want to happen, the U.S. has set itself up for a drawn-out conflict,” said Alina Polyakova, president of the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington. “You end up in a strange middle ground where you’re not necessarily able to accomplish that second goal of putting Ukraine in a position of strength that makes negotiations possible.”

The muddle over Western aims was illustrated this past week when a senior official of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization spoke publicly about an idea that European diplomats have been debating: that Ukraine give up Russian-occupied territory in return for joining NATO to protect what’s left. The suggestion drew an angry dismissal from Ukraine, which says its borders aren’t for bartering. The NATO official apologized, reverting to the West’s public line that only Ukraine can define acceptable peace terms.

In private, many Western officials don’t think the U.S. and its allies can leave it to Kyiv alone to define the goal. Ukraine’s maximalist aims, they fear, guarantee an endless war. They would like to offer Ukraine carrots to accept the de facto loss of some territory, such as NATO or European Union membership or promises of long-term military and economic aid.

The thinking stems from an eagerness to contain a conflict whose shock waves have been felt across the global economy, uncertainty about how long Western voters will support the current levels of aid for Kyiv and disbelief that Ukraine can fully expel Russian forces.

The Prussian military thinker Carl von Clausewitz famously wrote that “war is a mere continuation of policy by other means,” stressing that military force is an instrument for attaining a political goal. Some unsuccessful wars have resulted less from lost battles than from the lack of an achievable political aim, so that campaigns came to be seen as draining and fruitless. Modern examples arguably include the Soviet and U.S. failures in Afghanistan and America’s defeat in Vietnam.

Now, Russia is finding itself in a costly quagmire whose point is unclear. Turning Clausewitz’s idea on its head, Putin’s policy has depended on where his soldiers were. The full-scale invasion launched in early 2022 aimed to install a pro-Moscow regime in Ukraine, buttressed by an ideology that said Russians and Ukrainians were one people. When fierce resistance forced Russia to retreat from Kyiv, the Kremlin shrank the objective to conquering all of eastern Ukraine’s Donbas area. After further military setbacks, Russia declared the annexation of four regions in Ukraine’s east and south, none of which it fully controls.
But Russia is also trying to advance in the Kharkiv region in the northeast, going beyond its territorial claims. Senior Kremlin officials continue to say they want to dismantle the Ukrainian state.

Putin sometimes speaks as if the war has largely fulfilled its aim. “The primordial Russian lands of Donbas and Novorossiya have returned home where they belong,” Putin said with satisfaction in early August, using a tsarist-era term for southern Ukraine. Only in June, however, he mused about maybe raising more troops for another march on Kyiv. “Only I can answer that,” he said. “Depending on our goals, we must decide on mobilization,” he told Russian military correspondents, suggesting his goals remain fluid.

Russia had a plan A for a quick conquest of Ukraine but no plan B, said Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin. “Now, declaring goals could be politically costly for Putin. Having unclear metrics allows you to say you’re working towards them,” Gabuev said.

The Kremlin’s view of the timeline is clearer than the aims, Gabuev said: “They believe the cost of the war is manageable and the endurance of the Russian political system, people and economy can outlast the West.”

Recent events, from the revolt of the Wagner paramilitary group to the ruble’s sinking value, show how the war is straining Russia’s economy and military, but not yet to a breaking point. Some observers believe the state of war against Ukraine and its Western backers is becoming an end in itself, the raison d’être of a regime that can no longer offer economic growth and stability.

Russia hasn’t given up its maximal goal, pursued in many neighboring countries for years, Polyakova said: to reassert its old sphere of influence and stop countries such as Ukraine from moving further West—whether that means domination or turning them into failed states. The Kremlin’s lesser declared aims are tactical maneuvering, she said.

“Russia still has this big imperial vision that Putin has grown to believe in over his tenure,” she said. “Ukraine’s goals have not changed. The question is: What’s the Western strategic vision?”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Regarding the number of F16s available for transfer (there was some online confusion on the Dutch number of "42" given their Ministry of Defense states an inventory of 24, but this should clarify some of that):

Denmark to Provide 19 F-16 Jets to Ukraine, Prime Minister Says

Denmark will donate 19 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine to use in its efforts to defend against Russia’s invasion, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said Sunday.

www.bloomberg.com

Denmark will donate 19 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine to use in its efforts to defend against Russia’s invasion, Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said Sunday.
The Danish offer comes hours after a similar pledge by the Netherlands, which didn’t specify how many of its fleet of the planes would be made available to Kyiv.

According to what appears to be the Dutch Ministry of Defense's web site, there are 24 F16s in their inventory. There are more details here in an article on the inventory:

The 24 F-16s still flying operational missions with the RNLAF are probably the least likely candidates for transfer to Ukraine, at least in the short term. They are needed to continue operational assignments at least until a larger number of F-35s have been delivered and these jets are not currently cleared to undertake the full spectrum of operational tasks.

But even without those 24 jets, the Dutch have 34 aircraft left over from the original, now abandoned Draken deal.

There are very likely other F-16s available in the Netherlands, too.

According to a recent report in the Dutch newspaper de Volkskrant, there are another 18 RNLAF F-16s not in regular use. The Dutch national accounting office confirms that these aircraft are maintained for operational use as required and are actually rotated with the frontline aircraft to reduce flight hours per airframe. This would suggest that the Dutch have as many as 18 F-16s that would be more or less ready for transfer to Ukraine (albeit with an impact on the availability and fatigue life of the remaining frontline pool of jets). These jets are also understood to be upgraded to the same standard as the frontline F-16s.

So the 24 number on their site is the operational number, not total raw number.

Regarding the 12 that the company originally was buying: "In particular, Draken is said to have been unhappy about “the state of maintenance [of the aircraft] at the time of the transfer.” The company will buy 6 others (originally the deal was 12 with an option to buy 28 at a later time).

In full, 34 are available from the original, abandoned deal with perhaps around a third of these in questionable shape (perhaps they could be used for spare parts if they are too far gone). Another 18 are also out there. 24 are operational in the Dutch Air Force.

Zelenskyy seems to think here that the number they will receive from the Netherlands is 42 jets. Likely need some clarification on this because Dutch PM has not given a set number yet as far as I know. The number 42 seems plausible. From that same link, we see a breakdown of the timeline from Denmark:

Denmark’s prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, said her country would provide 19 jets – “hopefully” six around new year, eight more next year and the remaining five in 2025. “Please take this donation as a token of Denmark’s unwavering support for your country’s fight for freedom,” Frederiksen said.

I'd assume some sort of phased plan will also be instituted with the Dutch jets.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine's deputy defense minister outlines "difficult situation" near embattled Kupiansk

The Netherlands will give 42 F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky said, adding to 19 pledged by Denmark. Ukrainian pilots have begun training on the US-made jets, long-sought by Kyiv to counter Russian air superiority.

www.cnn.com

The "situation is difficult" near the city of Kupiansk as heavy fighting rages in eastern Ukraine, Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said Monday.

Russian forces have been making a push near Kupiansk in recent weeks, with significant shelling of the northeastern city and surrounding areas prompting the first major Ukrainian evacuation in months.

Speaking on national television, Maliar said Ukrainian forces "repelled attacks south of Pershotravneve and Synkivka villages and east of Petropavlivka village," in the Kharkiv region where Kupiansk is located, claiming "last week's battles all ended in defeat for the enemy."

Fighting is also "quite intense" near the strategic city of Lyman in the Donetsk region, Maliar said. The main fighting is around the nearby Serebryansky Forest, she said.

According to Maliar, the number of attacks in Lyman and Kupiansk have decreased, but "the enemy is currently regrouping, additionally pulling up forces there."

In Bakhmut, Maliar said Ukrainian troops have taken "key dominant heights" in the northern flank and that "fighting is heavy," with Russian forces trying to knock Ukraine's troops out position in the eastern city. Ukraine has liberated 3 square kilometers near the southern flank area of Bakhmut, bringing the total area recaptured to 43 square kilometers, she said.

Elsewhere in Donetsk, Russian forces attempting to encircle the town of Avdiivka "are not succeeding," Maliar said.

Meanwhile, Russian forces are trying to regain ground in the village of Urozhaine, which Ukrainian forces reclaimed last week, she said.

"There have been battles over the past week to keep the current positions," Maliar said.

In the south, Ukrainian forces continue their offensive toward Melitopol and Berdiansk in the Zaporizhzhia region, according to Maliar.

Ukrainians torn by evacuation calls as Russian shells fall in northeast

Ukrainians living in the northeastern Kupiansk district close to Russia's border on Sunday found themselves torn between the will to stay and protect what they have built and the desire to flee from Russian artillery fire.

www.reuters.com

Ukrainians living in the northeastern Kupiansk district close to Russia's border on Sunday found themselves torn between the will to stay and protect what they have built and the desire to flee from Russian artillery fire.
"If you said the evacuation is going well," Dmytro Lozhenko, who runs a volunteer group that helps civilians flee the fighting, said on television, "It would sound like a bit of sarcasm."
Regional authorities announced a mandatory evacuation of civilians from near the Kupiansk front earlier this month due to daily Russian shelling.
The artillery toll on Sunday, Ukraine's prosecutor general said, began in the morning with an attack on the city of Kupiansk that sent a 45-year-old man to hospital in serious condition.
At 1:20 p.m., the second shelling of the city center injured three civilian men, including an emergency medical assistant, and a 20-year-old woman.
About three hours later, a third round injured a policeman. Homes, cars, garages, a business, a post office, a gas pipeline, and an educational institution were damaged, the prosecutor's office said.
It said casualty figures were still being clarified, but Oleh Synehubov, the Kharkiv regional governor, said in a post on Telegram that the morning shelling injured 11 civilians, seven of them seriously.

In an interview on Ukrainian television, Lozhenko said about 600 people had been evacuated from the area in the past 10 days, more than 120 of them children.
But what is now a mandatory evacuation, he said, may yet become a forced one, "at least for families with children and for people with reduced mobility, who cannot look after themselves."
In one village in Kupiansk district, he said, it was only after Russia bombed out almost two entire streets that people started to leave. "The worst thing about evacuation is that people have been living in this war for a long time, and many of them are very used to shelling."
It was tough to tell people in Kupiansk who had adapted to the situation that they would be safer "in shelters, dormitories in other cities."
Russia denies deliberately targeting civilians in its invasion of Ukraine, which has killed thousands, uprooted millions, and destroyed cities.

Ukraine war latest: Kremlin threatens foreign fighters in Ukraine after Moscow's troops 'hear them on frontline'

The Kremlin claims its troops are constantly hearing foreigners on the frontline. Meanwhile, a UN inquiry has found Russia has been using drones to hunt civilians living near the frontline in Ukraine. Follow the latest on the Ukraine war.

news.sky.com

The First Ukrainian International Bank (FUIB) is attempting to finance the purchase of 33 long-range drones, that can be controlled up to 800 kilometres away.

The drones, if purchased, will be handed to the Ukrainian security service (SBU).

It is looking to raise funds via donations for the equipment, which is set to cost around £1.3m.

The bank has donated around half of that amount and is calling on "ordinary Ukrainians" to raise the rest.

Ukraine war latest: Kremlin threatens foreign fighters in Ukraine after Moscow's troops 'hear them on frontline'

The Kremlin claims its troops are constantly hearing foreigners on the frontline. Meanwhile, a UN inquiry has found Russia has been using drones to hunt civilians living near the frontline in Ukraine. Follow the latest on the Ukraine war.

news.sky.com

Russia is expanding its military structures as the war in Ukraine continues to drag on, according to the UK's Ministry of Defence.

The MoD claims that Russia is creating a new formation, the 18th Combined Arms Army, in response to "wartime realities".

It says the army will see a number of units currently deployed in Kherson merge together, and will likely consist "mostly of mobilised personnel and to focus on defensive security operations in the south of Ukraine".

The MoD's intelligence suggests that Russia is likely aiming to free up more experienced units to fight in key areas, with a "realistic possibility that this has led to the recent re-deployment of airborne forces from Kherson to the heavily contested Orikhiv sector".

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine’s sluggish counter-offensive is souring the public mood

The government is worried

www.economist.com

The public mood is sombre. Criticism of Volodymyr Zelensky, the president, has increased, and the reasons for the dissatisfaction are clear. Having once promised a march to Crimea, occupied and annexed by Russia since 2014, the political leadership in Kyiv now emphasises more realistic expectations. “We have no right to criticise the military sitting here in Kyiv,” says Serhiy Leshchenko, a spokesman in the presidential office. He likened frustration with the speed of the counter-offensive to impatient customers waiting for their iced lattes in the capital’s many hipster cafes. “This isn’t a horse you can whip to go faster. Every metre forward has its price in blood.”

A source in the general staff says that Ukraine has received just 60 Leopard tanks, despite the promise of hundreds. Demining vehicles are particularly scarce. “We simply don’t have the resources to do the frontal attacks that the West is imploring us to do,” says the source.

Lack of air cover is another difficulty. The source adds that Ukraine’s army was never blind to the challenges of breaching Russian minefields and defence lines without air superiority. (On August 20th the Dutch and Danish prime ministers said they would donate up to 61 of the jets, starting in the new year.) For that reason the military leadership delayed the counter-offensive as long as it could. After a disastrous start in early June, when two Western-trained brigades lost an uncomfortable number of men and equipment in minefields, the initial plans were adjusted. Ukraine has since prioritised preserving its army. “We no longer plan operations that presuppose large losses,” says the source. “The emphasis is now on degrading the enemy: artillery, drones, electronic warfare and so on.”
In recent days Ukraine’s armed forces have made important advances in the crucial southern theatre, and may have breached enough minefields to reach the first of three lines of Russian fortifications in several locations. They have also degraded Russia’s operational reserve and logistics. Still, two-and-a-half months in, Ukraine remains a long way off its strategic goal of nearing the Azov sea—and thus cutting Russia’s seized land corridor to Crimea—before the rains of late October, when mud will make for much harder going.

The grim mood is spilling over into Ukraine’s politics, which have been on hold for much of the war. Rumours have circulated all summer that Mr Zelensky’s office may call early parliamentary and presidential elections. The logic is that it is better for him to seek re-election while still a national hero, rather than after being forced into peace talks that might require an unpopular ceasefire or major territorial concessions. “Any election, if it happens, would be a referendum on Zelensky,” says Volodymyr Fesenko, a political analyst. “Apart from [commander-in-chief Valery] Zaluzhny, who is busy running the war, he currently has no obvious competitor. Zelensky’s team understands that could change.”

Conducting an election during a war, with up to 6m Ukrainian citizens living outside the country and hundreds of thousands fighting away from home, would be complex. And martial law precludes elections, meaning parliament would have to approve a change in electoral rules. The talk was initially of holding both elections this autumn, but it is now almost certainly too late for that—indeed, sources close to the presidential office insist the idea has been ruled out. In any case, polling suggests that Mr Zelensky’s team would have trouble persuading citizens of the need for an early vote. “There just isn’t a demand for it,” says Lubomyr Mysyv of Rating, a Kyiv-based sociological group. “The population is confused by the very idea.”

In the absence of a military breakthrough, peace negotiations with Russia would be an even harder sell. True, there have been some signs of a shift in mood, in unexpected quarters. In early August a Ukrainian sniper fighting north-west of Bakhmut made waves by dismissing the prospect of Ukraine ever regaining its full territory. He suggested that many soldiers would now welcome a ceasefire—a notion that would once have been unthinkable. But for now, few would agree. Too much blood has been spilt. “Any peace now is delayed war,” says the general-staff source. “Why hand the problem to the next generation?”
Many of Ukraine’s young are, of course, already bearing the burden of a war that has no end in sight. For young men, in constant danger of being served conscription papers and sent to the front, the pressure is particularly intense. Those keen to fight volunteered long ago; Ukraine is now recruiting mostly among the unwilling. “It makes the air so thick that you can actually feel it,” says Ms Zamula. Everyone knows that the cost of regained territory is dead soldiers. “Even hoping for success in the counter-offensive has become an act of self-destruction.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

On the Front Line, Ukrainian Commanders Are Buoyed to Be on the Offensive

Despite tough fighting and heavy casualties, Ukrainian commanders say their forces are in better shape now than just months ago, while Russian troops appear worse off.

www.nytimes.com

In 18 months of war, Ukrainian land has mostly changed hands in sudden bursts, with Russia snatching a mass of territory at the start and Ukraine recapturing chunks in dramatic counterattacks. Now 10 weeks into its most ambitious counteroffensive, with heavy casualties and equipment losses, questions have been growing about whether Ukraine can punch through Russian lines.
Despite grueling fighting, Ukrainian forces along much of the 600-mile front are moving forward, and commanders and veteran soldiers say they are in better shape now than six or 12 months ago.
“If a year ago we were conducting defensive operations and we had the task of holding back the enemy, now we have the ability to attack,” Col. Dmytro Lysiuk, commander of the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade, said in an interview in his frontline bunker last week.
Ukrainian officers are almost invariably upbeat in interviews. Even if the counteroffensive has yielded only mixed results so far, with Ukrainian troops slowed by dense Russian minefields and sustained firepower, they describe previous periods as being tougher than this one.
Their optimism is tempered by the deepening realization that the war looks likely to continue at least a couple of years more. Some commanders even talk of a permanent state of conflict.
But Colonel Lysiuk and other leaders interviewed in recent weeks point to what they describe as a number of encouraging changes. Their units are better trained and equipped than ever, thanks to billions of dollars of Western aid.
They have worked out how to manage the training of fresh soldiers and how to keep replenishing their ranks after losses, even while continuing to fight. Almost every unit has grown in professionalism and size: Battalions have turned into brigades, and volunteer groups into formal army units.

Longer-range Western artillery and, in particular, the cluster munitions recently provided by the United States, with some controversy, have been proving effective in destroying not only concentrations of Russian troops but also Russian armor and artillery systems.
Russian reinforcements have been holding back, reluctant to move into range of Ukraine’s guns, several commanders said.
“They can’t approach closer, or they will be destroyed,” said Lt. Ashot Arutiunian, the head of a drone unit of the Ukrainian Volunteer Army. Russia has resorted to other weapons, using more aviation bombs and missile strikes as a result, he said.
He showed video from his drones revealing damaged Russian armor. Vast craters gouged out of the earth by Russian aerial bombs and S300 missiles are visible in Ukrainian settlements all along the front line, where they have ripped up roads and smashed next to medical centers.
Even if it does not recapture territory quickly, the counteroffensive signals a shift of perspective for Ukrainian fighters.
For more than a year, units like the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade were ordered to hold the line along the Zaporizhzhia front, often a grim task of defending trenches and fortified positions under constant bombardment. Colonel Lysiuk was charged with rebuilding the brigade after it had taken heavy losses and lost its commander in December. It was back on operations in a week.
“It is tough,” Colonel Lysiuk said, “but the system is already tested.”

In June, his troops played a role in the first weeks of Ukraine’s counteroffensive, recapturing several villages in a strategic area near the Dnipro River and an intersection that leads south to the Black Sea and west to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant.
Colonel Lysiuk declined to say what his main tasks were then, but he said the brigade had fulfilled them all. “I’ll tell you after the war,” he said.
It is a measure of how tough the fighting has been that the advance amounted to just a few miles. The Russians moved up reinforcements, he said, and assaults on the next village have failed.
Yet Colonel Lysiuk was unperturbed. “It’s not a small job,” he said. “Some directions are more of a priority for development for a successful counteroffensive.”
Most of Ukraine’s seasoned commanders said they had learned from previous counteroffensives that Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, chief of the armed forces, and his top generals were adept at subterfuge and feints.
For months last year, Ukraine talked up its counteroffensive in the southern Kherson region and then surprised the world, and many of its own troops, with a sudden breach of Russian lines in the northeastern region of Kharkiv.
The Kherson counteroffensive unfolded by destroying Russian supply routes, which eventually forced the Russians to retreat from territory west of the Dnipro.
The two successful campaigns have given many Ukrainian soldiers and officers on the front confidence in General Zaluzhny’s overarching plan, even when troops receive a mauling, as did the new brigades spearheading the counteroffensive.
“We were disappointed, we thought they would punch quickly through to the sea,” said a 30-year-old deputy battalion commander of the 80th Airborne Assault Brigade, fighting on the eastern front. He gave only his call sign, Tysen, according to military protocol.

But Tysen said he had friends fighting in the south and they remained confident.
“Tactically, with cunning, with Western equipment, the Ukrainian armed forces are breaking through their defenses,” he said. “Success is just a question of time.”
Russian forces have mounted a fresh offensive in northeastern Ukraine toward the city of Kupiansk, but Ukraine units say they have managed to hold them at bay.
Tysen and other commanders said that the Russian forces they saw appeared to be in poorer shape than the Ukrainian ones.
“Compared to the beginning of the war, their equipment and personnel are in a very sorry state,” Tysen said.
On the southern front, soldiers and commanders said there were signs that Ukrainian artillery was wearing down Russian units facing them, largely thanks to American cluster munitions.
“We are using them quite effectively,” Colonel Lysiuk said. “They arrived mid-July. And we use them constantly.”

“We destroyed a lot of the enemy’s artillery in this time,” he said. “If before 20 enemy guns were working, now it’s two to four.” There are also signs, he said, that the Russians “cannot maintain constant combat readiness.”
Tactics mattered, too, said a deputy battalion commander of 129th Territorial Defense Brigade, who goes by the call sign Kherson.
A 41-year-old former government administrator who enlisted after the Russian invasion last year, Kherson led his unit in a combined assault on the village of Neskuchne at the beginning of the counteroffensive.
His men gained a foothold in the village and battled at close quarters for three days, he said.
“The Russians attempted counterattacks, tried to squeeze us out, to encircle us but everything happened as we envisioned,” he said. “We also had strong support from artillery and the higher command.”

As the Russian troops began to retreat, Russian forces fired rockets at the battlefield, killing their own men.
“They buried quite a lot of their own guys,” Kherson said.
Most Ukrainian commanders said their leaders had shown far more concern for the lives of their men than the Russian command for its troops. A few said hesitancy sometimes actually cost more Ukrainian lives.
A special operations forces officer, Oleksii, whose unit lost 15 men in four days of failed assaults on one village at the start of the counteroffensive, said, “If we had had harsher orders, that we had no option, we had to take the village, we would have.”
Instead, commanders delayed the operation, giving the Russians time to mine the trenches, he said. Then, when the first assault ran into difficulty, the commanders pulled back to regroup instead of sending in reinforcements.
“If you did it in one push, you would succeed and lose less people,” he said. “They thought, ‘we will try and lose less people,’ and now almost our whole group is in the hospital.”
How long such losses can be sustained by both sides may now prove critical to the war’s future course. Russia can draw from a population more than three times as large, but Ukrainian commanders repeatedly pointed to a crucial difference between the two sides: They were fighting to save their country.
“It doesn’t matter how long it is,” Kherson said. “It would be great if it ends in a week. If it is longer — we don’t have a choice.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin said to be recruiting Wagner 'strongmen' for Africa

Posts on Russian social media channels indicate that Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has published his first recruitment video for the Wagner Group since organizing a short-lived mutiny against defense officials in Russia.

apnews.com

In the video, which was posted on Telegram messaging app channels which are believed to be affiliated with Prigozhin, a person who appears to be the 62-year-old mercenary leader says the Wagner Group is conducting reconnaissance and search activities, and “making Russia even greater on all continents, and Africa even more free.”

“We are hiring real strongmen and continuing to fulfill the tasks which were set and which we promised to handle,” the speaker in the video says, toting an assault rifle and wearing military fatigues. Pickup trucks and other people dressed in fatigues are in the background.

Ukraine war latest: Kremlin threatens foreign fighters in Ukraine after Moscow's troops 'hear them on frontline'

The Kremlin claims its troops are constantly hearing foreigners on the frontline. Meanwhile, a UN inquiry has found Russia has been using drones to hunt civilians living near the frontline in Ukraine. Follow the latest on the Ukraine war.

news.sky.com

Ukraine has actively sought F-16 jets to help counter Russian air superiority for months.

And despite giving approval for the Netherlands and Denmark to send the aircraft, the US has said it will not send its own F-16s to Ukraine.

Why is this?

General Philip Breedlove, former supreme allied commander for Europe said he thinks it is because the West has been deterred by Vladimir Putin.

"Mr Putin's war of intimidation, his war of words in an attempt to deter the West from taking the actions it needs to take, has succeeded wildly," he told Sky News.

"We have been deterred from getting aircraft to them, we are still deterred from getting ballistic missiles to them.

"We are very slow at getting them things we have already promised them.

"Mr Putin has convinced us that we need to fear him widening the war using nuclear weapons."

Similar to the US, both the UK and France haven't ruled out the possibility of sending fighter jets to Ukraine in the future, but certain conversations and conditions would have to be met first.

Ukraine war latest: Kremlin threatens foreign fighters in Ukraine after Moscow's troops 'hear them on frontline'

The Kremlin claims its troops are constantly hearing foreigners on the frontline. Meanwhile, a UN inquiry has found Russia has been using drones to hunt civilians living near the frontline in Ukraine. Follow the latest on the Ukraine war.

news.sky.com

Greece will take part in training the Ukrainian air force to fly F-16 jets donated by Denmark and the Netherlands, Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said.

The Ukrainian president is in Athens after a visit to Copenhagen earlier today.

"Today, we have the important result for aviation coalition. Greece will participate in training of our pilots for F-16," he said during a news conference with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis.

"I am grateful for this proposal."

Ukraine war: Russia plans ‘ethnic cleansing’ of Mariupol

Mass population transfers may see 300,000 Russians move to the southern port city, aided by cheap mortgages and Moscow’s programme of rebuilding

www.thetimes.co.uk

Ukraine says it has uncovered a Russian plan to ethnically cleanse the southern Ukrainian port city of Mariupol via mass population transfers during the next ten years.
The alleged project would involve 300,000 Russians migrating to the city, which Moscow almost completely destroyed last year, at the beginning of its invasion of Ukraine, in a siege lasting almost three months.
Ukraine’s National Resistance Centre, created by the country’s special forces, said that Russia’s “development plan” envisages an increase in Mariupol’s population by 300,000 as a result of migration from Russia. The demographic changes would be fully implemented by 2035, it noted, citing sources “with access to the occupation administration’s documents”.
To support the move, the Kremlin has been instituting a system of preferential mortgages for Russians, which the centre said “emphasizes that these actions correspond to the signs of genocide according to international law”.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine’s needs-must approach won’t cut it with F-16 training

Ukrainians have proved ultra-quick and adaptive learners with new weapons, but training pilots for F-16s needs serious time.

www.politico.eu

But the different estimates for the time necessary to train F-16 pilots and the challenges they will face don’t fit into the familiar pattern of delay — though the belated decision to agree on sending F-16s clearly did. There are limits even to Ukrainian exceptionalism, experienced F-16 instructors and pilots told POLITICO. According to them, a needs-must approach just won’t cut it, and proficiency will take much longer to achieve than just relying on Ukrainian ingenuity — quick learners or not.

They also add that training novice pilots from scratch and transitioning pilots who are experienced on other warplanes are both time-consuming and present different challenges — it just isn’t like “jumping from a Mini to taking the wheel of an F-150 Ford truck,” says a current US F-16 pilot, who asked not be named as he isn’t authorised to talk with the media.

“You’ve seen the latest ‘Top Gun’ movie where Tom Cruise says, ‘If you think, you die,’” said Tom Richter, a former US Marine F/A-18 Hornet pilot who later transitioned to the F-16. “As Hollywood-cheesy as that might be, it is true.”

Now a commercial pilot, Richter, nicknamed T-Bone, tried to explain switchology: “If you’re thinking, ‘Where’s the switch, how do I employ my weapons?’ — there’s a problem. It has to be natural and intuitive, and that only comes with experience.” For pilots transitioning from other aircraft that’s especially awkward. “You become so comfortable in certain aircraft that you do things without thinking as you should, and with experienced pilots, you must basically retrain them to be intuitive, to forget their muscle memory and become intuitive on the new system,” he added.

“Let’s assume the pilot is familiar with the MiG-29. It’s an aircraft that is designed completely differently. The avionics, information and weapons systems they employ are completely different. So, you’re taking a pilot and telling him he has to relearn everything he has assimilated before, and has to develop an entirely new muscle memory, so that up in the skies, he doesn’t have to think. In some ways it is probably easier to take someone cold off the street and teach them,” he explained.

Inexperienced or not, Richter estimates it will take at least to six to seven months to get a pilot up to basic combat standards — and that’s when everything is proceeding smoothly, including no bad weather or aircraft breakdowns disrupting flying hours or trainees encountering hiccups.

Then, when basic training has been concluded, he said, ideally there should be another three months focused on training for air-to-air combat, and then another three months for air-to-ground attack. “Then you will be introduced into your permanent formation and train as a wingman, and we’re really going to add scenarios because you basically just kind of learned the basics up until now, and we want you at full combat quality,” he explained.

There can be shortcuts, of course, and pilots could be thrown into combat much earlier after basic training, as there won’t be any established F-16 formations to join. “They’re basically going to be thrown right into the fire,” Richter said — and with considerable risks too, as the skies above Ukraine are highly contested, with sophisticated air defense and electronic warfare systems deployed.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

How the West smashed Russia's deep-cover spy networks

Identification of suspects in London follows waves of expulsions across Europe as countries get tough on Kremlin espionage

www.telegraph.co.uk

Since the war in Ukraine began, the West has been uncharacteristically transparent about its efforts to catch those accused of spying for the Kremlin.
The renewed effort in spy catching in the UK is one half of a double blow to Russia’s intelligence networks that has forced Vladimir Putin’s spy agencies to turn to riskier forms of espionage: like undercover agents, and even so-called “illegals” who spend decades cultivating false identities for highly sensitive operations.
At least 705 diplomats suspected of spying have been expelled from Russian embassies across the world since 2022 – almost twice as many as the whole of the previous 20 years.

Some of the Russian diplomatic missions have been completely gutted. Bulgaria kicked out a staggering 83 Russian diplomats and Poland expelled 45. Faced with diplomatic corps shortages, Russia has been forced to close consulates in several countries.
Although it lacked the drama of a public exposure of an audacious spy op, the diplomatic purge dealt a heavy blow to day-to-day operations of the Russian spy network in Europe.
“The expulsions have definitely caused great damage because this is a loss of a great number of people with diplomatic cover, and those diplomats are barred from moving to another EU country,” Andrei Soldatov, a Russian investigative journalist and senior fellow at the Centre for European Policy Analysis who has studied Russian intelligence for two decades, told The Telegraph.
“Russian intelligence agencies are under pressure to produce results, and now the remaining agents are having to [do] double work for those who no longer sit at those embassies.”
Not all of the expelled diplomats are Russian intelligence agents, but some of them likely were key human intelligence officers, running networks of local agents. The disruption is likely to have seriously affected many long-running operations involving such agents, who are carefully cultivated by now-expelled Russian officers.
“What happens when you’ve got a sudden massive expulsion? A certain number of assets just simply drop off from the scene. Others are just simply there waiting but there’s nothing there tasking them or collecting their information,” Mark Galeotti, author of Putin’s Wars: from Crimea to Ukraine, told The Telegraph.
“It’s not just the guys in the embassies kicked out. It’s the disruption to the network they have been developing and nurturing.”

Alongside the crackdown on Russian spies operating under diplomatic cover, the West has sought to expose and destroy Russia’s network of “illegals”.
In less than a year, EU countries have arrested or exposed at least six Russian nationals who lived under fake identities and are believed to be working for the military intelligence GRU.
In the Netherlands, authorities in November identified and expelled a Russian agent who posed as a Brazilian post-graduate student as part of a plot to infiltrate the International Criminal Court in the Hague.
In Slovenia, police in January arrested a married couple who posed as Argentinean art gallery managers who reportedly spied for the GRU. Within days of their arrests, local media was full of stories describing the illegals as model neighbours who “seemed like everyone else” and took care of stray cats.
The alleged spies detained in Britain last week were similarly described by neighbours as “quiet and unremarkable”. They were also living close to RAF Northolt, an airbase used frequently by the Royal family.

Experts believe Western governments have chosen to publicly arrest the deep-cover agents because they have become bigger threats.
“By getting those people arrested, counter-intelligence is losing a potential source or a recruit,” Mr Soldatov said. “But these illegals are more dangerous now because Russian intelligence has essentially switched to a war mode.”
Short of staff in its embassies, Russia’s spy network has been forced to move from routine intelligence gathering to prioritise “special operations”, which could be anything from targeted assassinations to acts of sabotage, Mr Soldatov said.
Some, however, warn that the exposure, arrests and expulsions are too late already.
“The arrest of those three individuals is just a tip of the iceberg,” said Philip Ingram, a former British Army intelligence officer, referring to the three Bulgarians arrested in Britain.
“At this stage it is already too late: the Russians had embedded large numbers of agents and intelligence operatives within societies across Europe including the UK,” he said.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

As Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Grinds On, Russia Seeks to Advance in the North

Russia is trying to retake some of the territory that it lost to Ukraine in Kyiv’s lightning advance in the region of Kharkiv last autumn.

www.wsj.com

Russia is on the attack in northeastern Ukraine as it seeks to take back territory that Kyiv recaptured last fall and to divert Ukrainian forces from their counteroffensive in the south and east.

The main fighting is taking place around the village of Synkivka, just 16 miles from the Russian border, where Russia is trying to traverse Ukrainian minefields and advance on the city of Kupyansk to the south.

Footage posted online on Monday showed what Russian military bloggers said was the destruction of a bridge over the Oskil River that bisects Kupyansk, which would complicate Ukraine’s resupply effort and make a Russian ground attack on the city center harder in case Russian forces reach its outskirts. Ukraine didn’t confirm the destruction.

Kupyansk, which straddles the Oskil River running south from the Russian border, has taken on symbolic significance for Ukraine. It was seized by Russia in the early days of the war and made into a seat of Russian power in occupied parts of the northeastern Kharkiv region.

But in a lightning offensive last fall, Ukraine retook most of Kharkiv as thousands of Russian soldiers dropped their arms and fled. Russia began shelling Kupyansk on a near daily basis as it kept the city in its crosshairs and sought to chip away at residents’ morale.

Oles Maliarevych, a sergeant in a drone company defending Kupyansk, said the Russians are attempting assaults using small groups of infantry including convicts recruited by Russia’s Defense Ministry. Maliarevych and fellow soldiers on that part of the front refer to those operations as “meat assaults,” since captured Russians sent on such missions say they are seen as dispensable by their commanders.

Maliarevych’s unit, part of Ukraine’s 92nd Brigade, is fielding Ukrainian Vampire attack drones and reconnaissance drones to spot and eliminate Russian targets. On a recent mission, he said the unit destroyed three Russian tanks using a $20,000 drone that dropped three six-pound bomblets on the targets and made it safely back to the unit’s base.
No significant territory has changed hands in recent weeks, he said. “They take a position here, we get it back, they seize one elsewhere and so on. But broadly the line is not moving,” he said.

Popular Russian blogger Semyon Pegov, who spends time with Russian units on the front line, said on Sunday that Russian forces were having issues crossing Ukrainian minefields to the north of Synkivka. The area, he said, has been turned into a “gray zone,” or a no man’s land.

But both sides are suffering losses, and Ukrainian troops are under pressure from Russian forces backed by elite military units and airborne troops. Hanna Maliar, Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, said on Monday that Russia was staging new assaults backed by artillery attacks in the direction of Kupyansk.

Maliarevych said Russian forces are now pushing southward with the aim of occupying the entire eastern bank of the Oskil River, aiming to seize strategic heights surrounding Kupyansk from the east in advance of a push to recapture the city. “Their plans are obvious,” he said.

Soldiers fighting in Kupyansk say Russia has an advantage in artillery and mortar ammunition but its attack helicopters pose a particular problem across the 600-mile front line, since Ukraine doesn’t have enough jet fighters or the air defenses to prevent Russian planes from targeting their positions from several miles inside enemy lines.

Some defense experts see Russia’s latest Kupyansk offensive as a bid to divert Ukrainian forces and slow their advance in the south.

Serhiy Hrabsky, a military analyst and former Ukrainian army colonel, said Russia’s tactics in the north make it harder for Kyiv to marshal the strength needed to break through Russia’s main lines in the south before weather conditions make ground advances much harder in the fall. He said Ukraine is already struggling with a lack of artillery shells and advanced weaponry.

“By all measures of military science, the Ukrainian offensive should never have begun,” he said. “We should have had threefold the forces of our enemy, artillery superiority and clear control of the skies. None of those factors was there.”

However, he points to a string of successes in the south, where Ukraine has retaken villages occupied by Russian forces and is now targeting Russian fortifications around the settlement of Robotyne.

“We’re now in the most intense phase of military operations on both sides,” Hrabsky said. “Ukraine has still not engaged its full military potential. But Russia has already passed its peak.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian forces made tactically significant gains in and east of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 20-21 while continuing counteroffensive operations on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border and in eastern Ukraine. Geolocated

www.understandingwar.org

Ukrainian forces made tactically significant gains in and east of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 20-21 while continuing counteroffensive operations on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border and in eastern Ukraine. Geolocated footage published on August 20 and August 21 indicates that Ukrainian forces reached the central part of Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) and broke through some Russian defenses south of Mala Tokmachka (9km southeast of Orikhiv).[1] Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Ukrainian forces succeeded in the direction southeast of Robotyne and south of Mala Tokmachka, and that Russian forces unsuccessfully counterattacked east of Robotyne.[2] Malyar and Russian sources stated that fighting is ongoing in Robotyne.[3] A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces captured some positions in a part of the Russian forward defensive lines after intensifying attacks on the Robotyne-Verbove (21km southeast of Orikhiv) line.[4] Some Russian sources reported that Russian forces retreated from some positions near Verbove as part of their elastic defense, likely in response to a Ukrainian advance south of Mala Tokmachka.[5] ISW previously assessed that Ukrainian attacks on Robotyne are tactically significant because a Ukrainian advance in the area may allow Ukrainian forces to begin operating past the densest Russian minefields.[6] Ukrainian advances across fields in this area likely confirm this assessment. Persistent Ukrainian advances in the Robotyne area also likely aim to degrade Russian forces that have committed significant effort, resources, and personnel to hold positions around Robotyne.

Ukrainian forces also reportedly advanced in the Bakhmut and Kreminna directions over the past week and continue counteroffensive operations south and southeast of Velyka Novosilka in western Donetsk and eastern Zaporizhia oblasts.[7] Malyar stated that Ukrainian forces recaptured three square kilometers around Bakhmut over the past week and 43 square kilometers in total since Wagner Group forces captured Bakhmut in May 2023.[8] Ukrainian Severodonetsk City Administration Head Andriy Vlasenko reported that Ukrainian forces achieved some unspecified successes south of Kreminna while conducting active mobile defenses in the area.[9]

Russian milbloggers continue to indicate that Russian forces lack equipment and suffer from low morale along the entire frontline. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces – especially the 20th Combined Arms Army (Western Military District) and 2nd Combined Arms Army (Central Military District), both operating in eastern Ukraine – lack light transportation vehicles, which inhibits them from using equipment and operating effectively and reduces their morale.[10] The milblogger claimed that Russian personnel must register their privately-owned vehicles with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), after which their vehicles disappear or get transferred elsewhere.[11] The milblogger claimed that Russian commanders regularly punish servicemen who keep their vehicles for minor administrative violations and that Russian personnel feel that they are “at war” with their commanders.[12] A Russian milblogger claimed on August 21 that Russian authorities have not provided Russian forces operating in the Kherson direction with boats and have ignored milbloggers’ ongoing appeals since July 2.[13] “Vostok” Battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky claimed that Russian forces continue to face problems with counterbattery operations after Russian forces began experiencing artillery systems shortages and claimed that Russian forces began to receive “outdated” D-20 towed gun-howitzers.[14] Khodakovsky claimed that the “outdated” D-20 howitzers are not suitable for counterbattery combat, possibly referring to barrel wear from constant use that makes tube artillery less accurate over time.[15] Multiple milbloggers have claimed that Russian forces lack adequate counterbattery capabilities, especially since Commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army Major General Ivan Popov’s dismissal in early July.[16] Another Russian milblogger, however, claimed that Russian forces are improving artillery tactics and that artillery units have become far more accurate than they were a year ago.[17] The milblogger may be suggesting that mobilized personnel who did not have prior military experience have learned to accurately strike targets. Ongoing complaints from Russian personnel suggest that the Russian MoD is unwilling or unable to address persistent equipment shortages and problems with low morale. Russian forces may be improving tactics and learning from previous mistakes as the war continues, however. The protraction of the conflict resulting in part from delays in the provision of Western aid to Ukraine gives Russian forces time to improve and to learn from their mistakes.

Russian insider sources indicated that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov may have decisively won Russian President Vladimir’s Putin favor following the June 24 Wagner Group rebellion. A Russian insider source claimed that Putin postponed a meeting with Alexey Dyumin, former Putin bodyguard and current Tula Oblast governor, and forced Dyumin to publicly escort Shoigu at the recent Army-2023 Forum in Moscow.[23] The insider source claimed that the Kremlin wants to portray Shoigu and Dyumin as having positive relations and to gauge public reactions.[24] The Kremlin, however, likely aimed to publicly subordinate Dyumin to Shoigu. Dyumin and Shoigu have notably had a tense relationship, and Russian milbloggers recently floated Dyumin as a replacement for Shoigu immediately after the Wagner Group’s rebellion on June 24.[25] A Wagner-affiliated source claimed that the Russian General Staff now has “carte blanche” and has purged all proteges of Army General Sergey Surovikin, a former deputy theater commander and Wagner affiliate who was reportedly ousted and placed under house arrest.[26] The source also claimed that unspecified aspects of the Putin-Wagner deal collapsed for unknown reasons, which could indicate increased Putin favor for Shoigu and Gerasimov if true. Putin also recently publicly met with Gerasimov in Rostov-on-Don for the first time since the Wagner rebellion, which further indicates that Putin has fully aligned himself with Shoigu and Gerasimov despite their military failure and inability to stop the rebellion.[27]

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1693659276621889999

Amidst russia's attempt to downplay Robotyne as a negligible village in what seems like a damage control attempt, they often emphasize the size of the settlement or its population. They conveniently overlook mentioning the actual scale of allocated resources to keep that village, a crucial aspect surpassing the village's mere physicality on a map.

I'll refrain from asserting that russian lines are on the brink of collapse and their forces defeated – it's unfortunate that their units successfully executed a tactical retreat, averting encirclement and potential neutralization.

The effectiveness of minefields, fortifications, anti-tank trenches, and similar engineering obstacles becomes significant only when they are adequately manned and remain under fire control.
Unfortunately, their retreat affords them the opportunity to maintain the presence of manned trenches and supervised minefields. However, the exact count and resource availability involved remains uncertain.

Considering the available open-source loss data, it's apparent that Russian forces are experiencing a continued degradation of troops, potentially necessitating the deployment of supplementary troops to rectify the deteriorating situation.
If russians were to pursue this as their next move, the remaining question pertains to whether Ukraine has the necessary forces to build upon the achieved success – a question to which I currently lack an answer.

Nonetheless, this stands as an important development, and russia's attempt to undermine its significance only serves as evidence that things aren't so great as russians want to portray.

https://twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1693888843643076689

Ukraine's 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade claiming they've fully captured Robotyne, in Zaporizhzhya region (on the road to Tokmak). (source: https://t.me/brygada47)

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1693885240085757980

There will be many counterfactuals after this offensive, but I wouldn't blame risk aversion. Ukraine has attempted several company and battalion armored assaults but Russian anti-tank capabilities just proved too strong. Ukraine probably would have just taken heavier casualties.

Some footage of fighting in southeast Robotyne: https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/1693911162016969135

https://twitter.com/Danspiun/status/1693922842797129799

7. Robotyne
If you didn't see already, nice scenes. The 47th Mechanized Brigade report evacuating the remaining civilians left in the village. Here they are filmed in safer place.
One says: "We waited a year and a half for the ZSU. We grabbed things, documents and ran, throwing away those packages on the way, because life is the most valuable thing. And then these guys from the 47th Brigade took us out on a tank," (The Bradley).

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1693854503324287469

Ukrainian drones appear in Moscow for the fifth day in a row. Direct damage is minimal but the daily shutdowns of Moscow airports and flight disruptions are starting to take a toll. Ukrainian airports have closed in February 2022, and Ukraine may be seeking some reciprocity here.

Ukraine war latest: Kremlin threatens foreign fighters in Ukraine after Moscow's troops 'hear them on frontline'

The Kremlin claims its troops are constantly hearing foreigners on the frontline. Meanwhile, a UN inquiry has found Russia has been using drones to hunt civilians living near the frontline in Ukraine. Follow the latest on the Ukraine war.

news.sky.com

Drone attacks against Russia are likely being launched from inside Russian territory, according to British military intelligence.

The UK Ministry of Defence pointed to the "highly likely" destruction of a long range bomber at an airbase 400 miles from the border with Ukraine on Saturday.

The Soltsky-2 base in the Novgorod region is beyond the range of the Copter drone the Russian defence ministry said was responsible, according to the UK MoD.

"If true, this adds weight to the assessment that some UAV attacks against Russian military targets are being launched from inside Russian territory," it said.

"This is at least the third successful attack on LRA airfields, again raising questions about Russia's ability to protect strategic locations deep inside the country,"

The bomber was the same type of aircraft - named Backfire - that carried out the bombardment of Mariupol with unguided rockets early in the war, the UK MoD said.

It is "notoriously inaccurate" and fires heavy anti-ship missiles.

Ukraine war latest: Kremlin threatens foreign fighters in Ukraine after Moscow's troops 'hear them on frontline'

The Kremlin claims its troops are constantly hearing foreigners on the frontline. Meanwhile, a UN inquiry has found Russia has been using drones to hunt civilians living near the frontline in Ukraine. Follow the latest on the Ukraine war.

news.sky.com

Ukrainian special forces, Russian dissenters or people acting in the name of Ukraine without its knowledge may be behind drone attacks on Russia launched from within, a defence analyst has said.

At least one of Moscow's four airports has been closed every day due to the drones, Professor Michael Clarke told Sky News.

His comments echoed those of the UK defence ministry, which this morning said it was not possible for drones from Ukraine to hit targets attacked 400 miles from the border.

"Do we really think that the Russians are so incompetent that they can't track something over 400 miles of territory?" said Professor Clarke.

"The significance of these attacks is that some of them must be being launched from inside Russia."

But Ukraine still bears the political cost of the strikes, which "far exceeds" any military benefits, he said.

"I'm still very unhappy about this from Ukraine's point of view, I think it does give a lot of moral high ground to Putin," the professor said.

"It allows him to say 'this is exactly what I always said - that the West is attacking us.'"

 

[FiredMartz]

Are the sanctions working????

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine Chalks Up Small Advance in Southern Push

The capture of Robotyne gives Kyiv something to celebrate after two months of hard fighting and minimal gains since the counteroffensive began.

www.wsj.com

Ukrainian forces said they had seized the town of Robotyne, taking another small step in Kyiv’s efforts to cut through Russian defenses in southern Ukraine.

Robotyne’s capture by Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade on Tuesday gives Kyiv something to celebrate, after two months of hard fighting, substantial casualties and minimal gains since the long-awaited counteroffensive began.

About 9 miles south of Orikhiv, where Ukrainian forces began their march south, Robotyne is within about 14 miles of Tokmak, a key crossroads on the way south toward Melitopol, which is the biggest Russian-occupied city in the Zaporizhzhia region. Kyiv is hoping its troops can reach the Sea of Azov during the counteroffensive and bisect Russian forces. But Moscow has built a series of trenches, tank traps and other barriers between Robotyne and Tokmak, which could make the next phase of the fighting even more difficult for Ukraine.

The counteroffensive began disastrously for the 47th Brigade—one of Ukraine’s newly formed units, which was provided with Western tanks and trained in Europe this spring. At the start of June, as the brigade pushed south from Orikhiv, a number of its Western-armored vehicles were trapped in minefields; some were lost.

In the months since, Kyiv has adjusted its tactics, with infantry now leading the charge through minefields on foot and tanks supporting from behind, according to soldiers in several brigades fighting in the area. The arrival of American cluster munitions has also boosted the offensive, soldiers said.

“At the start, we thought we could take our fist and hit them with all our strength, and we almost broke our hand,” one soldier from the 47th Brigade said recently. He added that the brigade has gained experience, especially with demining, and is proceeding more methodically—but taking heavy casualties.

“It’s a very big price,” he said. “Lots of injuries. Lots of new people. Not a lot of time to prepare.”

Inside the EU’s military crash course for Ukrainian troops

In German forests, several European nations are training Ukrainian soldiers. POLITICO was on site.

www.politico.eu

“I am very impressed with what the Ukrainian comrades have shown here,” said German Lieutenant General Andreas Marlow, commander of the Special Training Command of the EU Military Assistance Mission in support of Ukraine (EUMAM UA).

Since November 15, mostly inexperienced Ukrainians have been sent to Germany to train in 17 different programs to become combat-ready soldiers — learning skills ranging from engineering to being infantrymen to manning armored vehicles.

“Two-thirds of the trainees who arrive here are reservists or civilians,” said Marlow. “In infantry training, there has been a 19-year-old and a 71-year-old. But these are exceptions.”

One of the Leopard 1 instructors said the Ukrainian tank trainees are mostly around 40.

Instructors must constantly adapt training to Ukraine’s needs. At the beginning of the mission, Ukraine asked for training in urban fighting, Marlow said. “Now that’s changing to also asking for combat training in wooded terrain, in developed field fortifications and in more open areas with overcoming mine barriers.”

Those are the challenges now facing the Ukrainian military as its counteroffensive grinds against Russia’s trenches and minefields.

Germany has trained 6,200 Ukrainian soldiers with the support of 12 European nations like the Netherlands and Denmark to date; the goal is to reach 10,000 by the end of the year.

One of the soldiers is Yevhen from eastern Ukraine. Like other training participants, he has to cover his face when talking to journalists to conceal his identity. The father of a 6-year-old son didn’t want to talk about his feelings regarding the fighting he’ll soon be facing.

Yevhen was an electrician but was mobilized after Russia’s invasion. In Ukraine, the 32-year-old was trained on the Soviet T-64 tank for a “short time,“ he said; then the Ukrainian army sent him to Germany for Leopard 1 training.

“The mood among us is great. We want to liberate our country and secure our future,” said Yevhen, adding that the Leopard training would help with that.

The Leopard 1 was decommissioned by the German army in 2003, which means that old Leopard 1 tanks first had to be procured and upgraded for the training mission.

Even though the Western weapons are obsolete, they’re still better than the Soviet gear that the Ukrainians are used to.

“The Marder is like a BMW, while the Russian armored vehicle is like an ancient Volga [Soviet car model],” joked one of his Ukrainian comrades training on the Marder 1A3.

The mandate of the EUMAM mission runs until November 15, 2024, by which time 30,000 Ukrainians should have been trained in Germany and Poland, where other European nations are conducting more training.
But Marlow is certain he’ll still be training Ukrainian soldiers after that.

“Unfortunately, it appears that this war of aggression will continue. To that extent, I expect that we will have to continue to provide this training for a long time.”

Ukraine media say Kyiv saboteurs were behind drone attacks on air bases deep inside Russia

Ukraine media are reporting that a pair of recent drone attacks on air bases deep inside Russia that hit parked bomber aircraft were the work of Ukrainian saboteurs coordinated by Kyiv’s military intelligence services.

apnews.com

Ukrainian saboteurs coordinated by Kyiv’s military intelligence services carried out a pair of recent drone attacks that hit parked bomber aircraft at air bases deep inside Russia, Ukraine media claimed Tuesday.

The attacks on Russian airfields on Saturday and Monday destroyed two Russian bombers and damaged two other aircraft, according to Ukrainska Pravda, as the war approaches its 18-month milestone.

That newspaper and Ukraine’s NV news outlet said groups of saboteurs were behind the audacious strikes, which suggest that Ukraine’s scope of action is broadening. It was not possible to verify the claims on the ground.

Ukrainian media attributed two attacks to the saboteurs: a strike Saturday on the Soltsy air base in the Novgorod region in northwestern Russia, about 700 kilometers (360 miles) north of the Ukrainian border, and Monday’s strike against the Shaikovka air base in the southwestern Kaluga region that is about 300 kilometers (180 miles) northeast of the Ukrainian border.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine’s Forces and Firepower Are Misallocated, U.S. Officials Say (Published 2023)

American strategists say Ukraine’s troops are too spread out and need to concentrate along the counteroffensive’s main front in the south.

www.nytimes.com

Ukraine’s grinding counteroffensive is struggling to break through entrenched Russian defenses in large part because it has too many troops, including some of its best combat units, in the wrong places, American and other Western officials say.
The main goal of the counteroffensive is to cut off Russian supply lines in southern Ukraine by severing the so-called land bridge between Russia and the occupied Crimean Peninsula. But instead of focusing on that, Ukrainian commanders have divided troops and firepower roughly equally between the east and the south, the U.S. officials said.
As a result, more Ukrainian forces are near Bakhmut and other cities in the east than are near Melitopol and Zaporizhzhia in the south, both far more strategically significant fronts, officials say.
American planners have advised Ukraine to concentrate on the front driving toward Melitopol, Kyiv’s top priority, and on punching through Russian minefields and other defenses, even if the Ukrainians lose more soldiers and equipment in the process.
Only with a change of tactics and a dramatic move can the tempo of the counteroffensive change, said one U.S. official, who like the other half a dozen Western officials interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.
Another U.S. official said the Ukrainians were too spread out and needed to consolidate their combat power in one place.
Nearly three months into the counteroffensive, the Ukrainians may be taking the advice to heart, especially as casualties continue to mount and Russia still holds an edge in troops and equipment.
In a video teleconference on Aug. 10, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff; his British counterpart, Adm. Sir Tony Radakin; and Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the top U.S. commander in Europe, urged Ukraine’s most senior military commander, Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, to focus on one main front. And, according to two officials briefed on the call, General Zaluzhnyi agreed.

American officials say there are indications that Ukraine has started to shift some of its more seasoned combat forces from the east to the south. But even the most experienced units have been reconstituted a number of times after taking heavy casualties. These units rely on a shrinking cadre of senior commanders. Some platoons are mostly staffed by soldiers who have been wounded and returned to fight.
Ukraine has penetrated at least one layer of Russian defenses in the south in recent days and is increasing the pressure, U.S. and Ukrainian officials said. It is close to taking control of Robotyne, a village in the south that is near the next line of Russian defenses. Taking the village, American officials said, would be a good sign.
A spokesman for the Ukrainian military did not respond to text messages or phone calls on Tuesday.
But some analysts say the progress may be too little too late. The fighting is taking place on mostly flat, unforgiving terrain, which favors the defenders. The Russians are battling from concealed positions that Ukrainian soldiers often see only when they are feet away. Hours after Ukrainians clear a field of mines, the Russians sometimes fire another rocket that disperses more of them at the same location.
Under American war doctrine, there is always a main effort to ensure that maximum resources go to a single front, even if supporting forces are fighting in other areas to hedge against failure or spread-out enemy defenses.
But Ukraine and Russia fight under old Soviet Communist doctrine, which seeks to minimize rivalries among factions of the army by providing equal amounts of manpower and equipment across commands. Both armies have failed to prioritize their most important objectives, officials say.

Ukraine’s continued focus on Bakhmut, the scene of one of the bloodiest battles of the war, has perplexed U.S. intelligence and military officials. Ukraine has invested huge amounts of resources in defending the surrounding Donbas region, and Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, does not want to appear as though he is giving up on trying to retake lost territory. But U.S. officials say politics must, at least temporarily, take a back seat to sound military strategy.

American strategists say that keeping a small force near the destroyed city is justified to pin down Russian troops and prevent them from using it as a base for attack. But Ukraine has enough troops there to try to retake the area, a move that U.S. officials say would lead to large numbers of losses for little strategic gain.
American officials have told Ukrainian leaders that they can secure the land around Bakhmut with far fewer troops and should reallocate forces to targets in the south.
Ukrainian leaders have defended their strategy and distribution of forces, saying they are fighting effectively in both the east and the south. The large number of troops is necessary to pressure Bakhmut and to defend against concerted Russian attacks in the country’s northeast, they say. Ukrainian commanders are competing for resources and have their own ideas of where they can succeed.

American officials’ criticisms of Ukraine’s counteroffensive are often cast through the lens of a generation of military officers who have never experienced a war of this scale and intensity.
Moreover, American war doctrine has never been tested in an environment like Ukraine’s, where Russian electronic warfare jams communications and GPS, and neither military has been able to achieve air superiority.
American officials said Ukraine has another month to six weeks before rainy conditions force a pause in the counteroffensive. Already in August, Ukraine has postponed at least one offensive drive because of rain.

Wet weather will not stop the fighting, but if Ukraine breaks through Russian lines in the coming weeks, the mud could make it more difficult to capitalize on that success and quickly seize a wide swath of territory, officials said.
More important than the weather, some analysts say, is that Ukraine’s main assault forces may run out of steam by mid- to late September. About a month ago, Ukraine rotated in a second wave of troops to replace an initial force that failed to break through Russian defenses.
Ukraine also shifted its battlefield tactics then, returning to its old ways of wearing down Russian forces with artillery and long-range missiles instead of plunging into minefields under fire. In recent days, Ukraine has started tapping into its last strategic reserves — air mobile brigades intended to exploit any breakthrough. While fighting could continue for months, U.S. and other Western officials say Ukraine’s counteroffensive would not have enough decisive firepower to reclaim much of the 20 percent of the country that Russia occupies.
U.S. officials say they do not believe the counteroffensive is doomed to failure but acknowledge that the Ukrainians have not had the success that they or their allies hoped for when the push began.
“We do not assess that the conflict is a stalemate,” Jake Sullivan, the White House’s national security adviser, said on Tuesday. “We continue to support Ukraine in its effort to take territory as part of this counteroffensive, and we are seeing it continue to take territory on a methodical systematic basis.”

While a smaller, dug-in Russian force has performed better in the south than American officials and analysts anticipated, the Kremlin still has systemic problems. Russian troops suffer from poor supply lines, low morale and bad logistics, a senior U.S. military official said.
But Russia is keeping with its traditional way of fighting land wars in Europe: performing poorly in the opening months or years before adapting and persevering as the fighting drags on.
By contrast, Ukrainian troops, in launching the counteroffensive, have the steeper hill to climb, the official said. It took them more than two months — rather than the week or so that officials initially thought — to get through the initial Russian defenses.
Several U.S. officials said they expect Ukraine to make it about halfway to the Sea of Azov by winter, when cold weather may dictate another pause in the fighting. The senior U.S. official said that would be a “partial success.” Some analysts say the counteroffensive will fall short of even that more limited goal.
Even if the counteroffensive fails to reach the coast, officials and analysts say if it can make it far enough to put the coastal road within range of Ukrainian artillery and other strikes, it could cause even more problems for Russian forces in the south who depend on that route for supplies.

 

[themeistersinger]

Why Kadyrov’s Personal Militia Will Not Fill Russia’s Wagner-Shaped Void - The Moscow Times

Opinion | In the wake of Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner Group’s mutiny against Russia’s military leadership, many commentators postulated that the forces of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov would fill their void.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Failing to Learn: Why Russia’s Air Bases Keep Getting Hit by Cheap Drones from Ukraine

The destruction of one of Russia’s 60-strong Backfire force with one cheap drone is embarrassing enough for Russia, but the real problem is that was not just a daring one-off. Ukrainian drones are hitting Russian air bases again and again.

www.19fortyfive.com

 

[themeistersinger]

IAEA: Situation 'precarious' after multiple explosions near Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant

Military operations near the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, including multiple explosions in the past week, pose an ongoing nuclear security risk, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported on Aug. 22.

kyivindependent.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Russian media: Putin fires General Surovikin

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has removed Army General Sergey Surovikin from his post of Air Force Commander, Russian media reported on Aug. 22. The general was also the deputy commander of the Russian invasion forces in Ukraine.

kyivindependent.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Military intelligence: Russia sinking ferries in attempt to protect Crimean Bridge

Russia is resorting to sinking ferries in the Kerch Strait to protect the Crimean Bridge from attacks, Ukraine's military intelligence said on Aug. 22.

kyivindependent.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Video: https://twitter.com/leonidragozin/status/1694363229445566725

Ukraine’s GUR has released video of a Ukrainian drone destroying a Russian anti-aircraft system. The Ukrainians say it was S-400. The Russians confirm the strike, but say it was S-300. Massive explosion is caused by secondary detonation.

'It's dragged on': Ukrainians confront slow war gains

Rusted Russian tanks, which the Kremlin had hoped would parade victorious through Kyiv days after it invaded Ukraine, have instead been lined up as war trophies ahead of Ukraine's independence day.

www.france24.com

Mykola Bielieskov, a research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies in Kyiv, said given Russian defensive preparations and artillery firepower, the offensive was always going to be long and hard.

"I don't understand what people expected," he told AFP.

He also attributed the pace of gains to Ukraine's strategy of preserving as much manpower and hardware as possible.

"The whole idea that without fire superiority Ukraine can unhinge this Russian defence and quickly create openings -- it was misplaced," he added.

Vitali, a 21-year-old Ukrainian soldier on leave in the capital, said the military was spread too thinly along the front to launch a concentrated offensive.

How soon will Ukraine be able to use its F-16s?

The Danish and Dutch will send dozens, but it will take months

www.economist.com

How soon Ukraine will get significant numbers of f-16s is also uncertain. A few should be available early next year. But much depends on how quickly Denmark and the Netherlands receive the F-35s that are replacing f-16s in their air forces. NRC, a Dutch daily, reports that one Dutch f-16 squadron of 24 aircraft may not be fully re-equipped with F-35s until late next year. Twelve other planes are two-seaters needed to train Ukrainian pilots in the Netherlands. The final six Dutch planes had been promised for sale to a private American company which uses them as adversaries in combat exercises.

Douglas Barrie, a military aerospace analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a think-tank in London, says the timing is normal: “They will arrive in batches and you want them to be in pretty good condition.” But he thinks the first Ukrainian squadron of 12-16 aircraft could be up and running within six months.
Maintaining the jets will be a bigger challenge than training the pilots. Justin Bronk, an airpower expert at RUSI, a think-tank, thinks Ukraine will have to rely heavily on civilian contractors to supervise and train Ukrainian maintenance crews, perhaps for several years. Dispersed basing will be needed to avoid Russia destroying aircraft on the ground. Ukraine has so far been good at this: it is a big, flat country with plenty of airfields far from the frontlines. But scattered bases require more contractors and ground-support equipment.
Mr Bronk questions where such contractors will come from, when European air forces are urgently retraining their people on the F-35s. He also worries that the money to service the F-16s will eat away at America’s “presidential drawdown authority”—the finite funds that Joe Biden, America’s president, can send to Ukraine without congressional approval—at the expense of other critical weapons.

Assuming the difficulties can be overcome, will the F-16s be worth the trouble? Nobody suggests that they will be a game-changer. But if all 61 Danish and Dutch F-16s were to end up in Ukraine, it would increase the country’s air force’s frontline inventory by more than half. Moreover, they give it a platform that can be fully integrated with American and European air-launched missiles and data links along with nato ground-based air-defence radars, such as those used for Patriot missile batteries. Equipped with up to six AMRAAM “over-the-horizon” missiles or shorter-range Sidewinders, they should be far more effective at shooting down Russian cruise missiles and scaring off Russian fighter-bombers than anything Ukraine has now.
Whether the F-16s will help Ukraine on the battlefield, where its counter-offensive is making only slow progress, is less certain. Dropping short-range guided bombs, which are already used by Ukrainian MiG-29s, would put them at risk from Russian fighters with more advanced radars. Mr Barrie thinks America is unlikely to supply its JASSM-ER missile, which has a range of 1,000km and could be used to strike targets in Russia. Ukraine’s existing Su-24s can already fire the Anglo-French Storm Shadow/scalp cruise missile. These Soviet-era aircraft could no doubt also provide a platform for the German Taurus cruise missile, if Germany supplies it.
But the F-16s are important for other reasons. Their arrival is a boost to morale. Most crucially, Mr Barrie notes, they mark the start of Ukraine’s shift to a NATO-compatible air force. That will mean a lot for the country’s combat power and for deterring its giant adversary from future attacks, once this war is over.

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1694103662782513404

The first 8 Ukrainian F-16 pilots and 65 support personnel are now being trained in Denmark.

 

[themeistersinger]

Ukraine Says Destroyed Russian Missile Defense System in Crimea - The Moscow Times

Ukrainian forces have destroyed a Russian S-400 missile defense system in annexed Crimea, Kyiv said Wednesday. “The explosion completely destroyed the system, its missiles and personnel,” Ukraine’s GUR military intelligence agency said in a statement, which was accompanied by a video of the...

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian forces continued to make advances in and around Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast as of August 22 amid indications that Russian forces likely have a limited presence in the settlement. Geolocated footage published on August 21 and 22

www.understandingwar.org

Ukrainian forces continued to make advances in and around Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast as of August 22 amid indications that Russian forces likely have a limited presence in the settlement. Geolocated footage published on August 21 and 22 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced in southeastern Robotyne and east of the settlement near Novopokrovka (13km southeast of Orikhiv).[1] The Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade published a video on August 22 showing its personnel successfully evacuating civilians from Robotyne while accompanied by Ukrainian journalists.[2] The 47th Mechanized Brigade stated that its personnel broke through multi-echelon Russian defensive lines near Robotyne and have entered the settlement.[3] The evacuations and the presence of Ukrainian journalists suggests that areas of Robotyne may be relatively secure due to diminished Russian positions in the settlement itself and the nearby area. Russian maximalist claims that Ukrainian forces only maintain positions on the very northern outskirts of the settlement are likely false given the footage and reporting from the 47th Brigade. Most Russian milbloggers continue to acknowledge that Ukrainian forces hold positions in much of northern Robotyne and that Russian forces likely control at most positions on the southern outskirts of the settlement at this time.[4]

Russian forces appear to be concentrating their limited available reinforcements from elsewhere in the theater in the Orikhiv direction in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Ukrainian military journalist Konstantin Mashovets reported that elements of the 108th Air Assault (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) deployed near Robotyne as of August 16 and near Novopokrovka as of August 20.[5] Elements of the 108th were deployed near the Antonivsky Bridge as of July 29, and the “Sokol” Volunteer Battalion of the 108th VDV Regiment was reportedly operating near Staromayorske and Urozhaine in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area as of August 14.[6] Elements of the 7th VDV Division’s 56th Regiment have likely been engaged in fighting in the immediate vicinity of Robotyne since early August.[7] Elements of the 7th VDV Division's 247th Regiment appear to be still operating south of Velyka Novosilka in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, although a prominent Russian milblogger suggested that some elements may be operating in the Robotyne area.[8] Elements of the 7th VDV Division's air assault regiments may be deployed across two axis as separate battalions and platoons, however. ISW previously assessed that the lateral redeployment of elements of the 7th VDV Division to the Robotyne area suggested that Ukrainian forces had severely degraded Russian forces in the area, and the possible commitment of elements of all three of its air assault regiments may suggest the further deterioration of the Russian situation in the area.

Ukrainian offensive operations in other sectors of the front remain important because they can fix Russian units in place and prevent further lateral reinforcements. Criticisms of continued Ukrainian efforts in other sectors and calls for Ukraine to concentrate all available reserves on a single axis are thus problematic. Ukrainian offensive operations around Bakhmut have fixed elements of multiple Russian airborne divisions and separate brigades in that area, as ISW has previously noted, rendering them likely unavailable to stiffen Russian resistance in the south.[9] Ukrainian offensive operations south of Velyka Novosilka proceeding in parallel with operations toward Melitopol present Russian defenders with multiple dilemmas and the need to choose which axis to reinforce. Sound campaign design requires balancing between weighting a decisive main effort and avoiding allowing the enemy to concentrate all reserves on stopping a single obvious thrust.

The Ukrainian advance in the Robotyne area brings Ukrainian forces closer to launching operations against second lines of defense that may be relatively weaker than the first Russian defensive line in the area. ISW has not observed any new Russian formations or units arrive in western Zaporizhia Oblast beyond the lateral transfer of the elements of the 7th VDV Division and the arrival of “Akhmat-Yug" Battalion elements in August.[10] Elements of the 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (19th Motorized Rifle Division, 58th Combined Arms Army, Southern Military District) previously operating near Nesteryanka (12km northwest of Robotyne) have reportedly arrived in the immediate vicinity of Robotyne, likely to reinforce failing Russian defenses in the area.[11] Russian forces deployed to the wider western Zaporizhia Oblast operational direction have been defending against Ukrainian counteroffensives since the start of the counteroffensive without rotation.[12] Russian forces do not appear to have uncommitted regular units in Zaporizhia Oblast. All elements of the Russian grouping in Zaporizhia Oblast that ISW observed in the area in the months leading up to the counteroffensive have since been engaged in defensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast or in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.[13] ISW has since observed additional Russian elements that were likely already in the area only after they started defending against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations, however, and it remains possible that some yet unobserved and uncommitted elements may occupy positions at secondary lines of defense.[14]

The lack of observed Russian formations and units at secondary lines of defense in western Zaporizhia Oblast may suggest that elements of units and formations already engaged in fighting may occupy these positions. Russian tactical reporting about counterattacks in the Robotyne area suggests that the 22nd and 45th Spetsnaz Brigades occupy positions behind the first line of defense and possibly at the second.[15] Elements of the 22nd and 45th Spetsnaz Brigades appear to be responsible for launching counterattacks against significant Ukrainian advances in the area and therefore are likely degraded.[16] The likely lack of Russian operational reserves, together with the limited lateral transfers to western Zaporizhia Oblast and observed separate uncommitted units at second lines of defense, suggests that second lines of Russian defense may be significantly less heavily defended. The Russian formations and units currently occupying secondary lines of defense are largely unknown at this time, however, and ISW offers this assessment with low confidence.

Russian forces appear concerned about recent Ukrainian advances in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Satellite imagery from November 2022, December 2022, and August 2023 shows that Russian forces have notably sped up the expansion of defensive fortifications near Chervonoselivka (38km southwest of Velyka Novosilka and 27km from the current frontline) in Zaporizhia Oblast over the last month.[17] Ukrainian Colonel Petro Chernyk stated that all conditions are set for Ukrainian forces to enter the Northern Azov region and “demolish“ Russian positions in southern Ukraine and occupied Crimea.[18] Chernyk stated that Russian forces are strengthening their positions on the Perekop Isthmus (around 160km north of Sevastopol) and are building three lines of defense in the area.[19] Chernyk suggested that Russian forces would not have built additional defenses if they were sure they could hold their positions on the Perekop Isthmus.[20] Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Major General Kyrylo Budanov stated that Russian forces have created four unspecified “groups” in Crimea in preparation for a Ukrainian counteroffensive and noted that this has never happened before.[21] The construction of additional defensive fortifications in Zaporizhia Oblast and on the Perekop Isthmus and the creation of four unspecified “groups” in Crimea may indicate that Russian forces are growing increasingly concerned about recent Ukrainian advances along the southern front.

 

[themeistersinger]

Moscow Has Shown It Will Not Cross Its Own Red Lines in the War - The Moscow Times

Opinion | Half a year into Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the world was caught off-guard by President Vladimir Putin’s vow to use “all means” necessary to protect the territorial integrity of Russia – including the four newly illegally annexed Ukrainian regions and Crimea.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Russian Airlines Import $1.2Bln Worth of Western Parts Despite Sanctions – Reuters - The Moscow Times

Russian airlines have continued to import spare parts for Western aircraft despite sanctions designed to cut off the flow of key equipment, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing customs data.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Russia’s History Textbook Rewrite Is a Bid to Control the Future - The Moscow Times

Opinion | “Knowledge of history allows you to not only evaluate past events but also to divine the future.” This is the pontifical claim at the close of a new, highly partial, Russian school history textbook for years 10-11. Covering the post-war period to the present day, the “History of...

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Good read from Sir Lawrence Freedman here. He addresses a lot of the criticisms we've seen in publications such as the NY Times and Washington Post as of late. Recommended reading:

Ukraine's offensive: is it failing?

And are the Pentagon's criticism's of its strategy fair?

samf.substack.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

“Sniper terror”: Inside Ukraine’s elite Alpha unit tasked with striking high-value Russian targets

A top Russian general who vanished after the Wagner rebellion in June has been fired from his role as head of the country's aerospace forces, according to Russian state media. Follow here for live news updates.

www.cnn.com

The elite Alpha sniper unit of the Ukrainian security services, the SBU, granted CNN rare access to their team and details of their operations. The rough equivalent of the US Delta Force, the Alpha unit is used to strike high-value Russian targets, using often thermal scopes to hit Russian trench systems in the black of night.

One sniper called the tactic “sniper terror,” explaining: “That’s when we hit every target we spot. It demoralizes them and kills their will to do anything against us.”

The snipers met CNN at a location they requested not be disclosed, and asked not to be named. During their sight adjustment on a practice range, the suppressor flew clean off a Western-donated Barrett M82 sniper rifle mid-shot. The snipers said it had been used so much that its fastenings had come loose.

The unit’s commander described a mission five weeks ago where they mistakenly ran into their rough Russian equivalent – a recon assault group. The unit had entered into a treeline and stumbled into the Russian group. “We opened fire, our guide was wounded,” he said. “We suppressed them, pulled him out, called in artillery and then watched them fall back with their wounded.”

They released to CNN a series of videos from their thermal scopes, showing multiple kills in the Robotine and Bakhmut areas.

A third sniper is a living symbol of how close it can get. His upper lip folds slightly inward – the work of an artillery shell explosion that hit his leg, chest and head. “It was unpleasant,” he said. “But I had 16 operations to rebuild my bones and teeth, and I got back to the fight.”

Not everyone he knows has been so lucky. “I have lost many friends – the best ones leave us first,” he said.

Among these hardened fighters, there is an acceptance that this might be a multi-year war, impacting generations.

The third sniper said: “My son is growing up, he is little but he already trains, knows who is the enemy and that is Russia.”

There is a video at the link where members are being talked to by CNN reporters.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1694290545277874404

Telegram channel close to the Russian Air Force says a Mi-8 Russian chopper mistakenly flew across the border and landed in Poltava, with some crew taken prisoner by Ukraine. Not sure how you can get lost all the way 100 km from the border. A defection?

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1694317329797058897

Ukrainian media confirms the account, says the chopper is intact and will go into Ukrainian service. No official statements so far by either side. https://t.me/ButusovPlus/4372…

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1694320203625062582

This gets even more interesting: the pilot of the Mi-8 defected as he was transporting fighter jet parts between air fields. His family was reportedly exfiltrated, and the two other crew members were killed as part of the operation. Quite a coup for GUR. https://pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2023/08/23/7416758/

https://twitter.com/AlecLuhn/status/1694353017955336336

A Russian pilot has reportedly defected to Ukraine in a Mi-8 helicopter carrying fighter jet parts. His family was brought to Ukraine with the help of UA intel. His 2 fellow crew members were “eliminated”
https://t.co/XcLdgNmWPO

 

[themeistersinger]

Ukraine: A Necessary Path to Peace - The Moscow Times

Opinion | More than a year into the continuing, cruel conflict over Ukraine, there is no end in sight.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[IvanKaramazov]

What a weird coincidence that they guy who led a coup against Putin apparently died in a plan crash. What are the odds?

 

[massraider]

What a weird coincidence that they guy who led a coup against Putin apparently died in a plan crash. What are the odds?

I heard the plane fell out of a window.

 

[dickey moe]

What a weird coincidence that they guy who led a coup against Putin apparently died in a plan crash. What are the odds?

Figured his days were numbered.

Prigozhin has gone kaput.

 

[TLEF316]

Yeah....dude played it so badly. Did he really think he could get away with going halfway to a coup?

Guy thought he was just negotiate a deal and get away with. LOLZ

 

[Capella]

Putin is something else. Wow.

 

[Capella]

Why would you ever be on a plane or within a mile of that guy? I’d be waiting for a bomb or some sarin gas to go off. Crazy.

 

[Sand]

Why would you ever be on a plane or within a mile of that guy? I’d be waiting for a bomb or some sarin gas to go off. Crazy.

I'd be walking around with a Geiger counter 24/7 waiting for the polonium infusion attempt...

 

[themeistersinger]

Russian media: Prigozhin's private jet crashes in Russia

Yevgeny Prigozhin's private plane has reportedly crashed in Russia's Tver Oblast, with the Wagner Group's owner listed as one of the passengers, the state-owned news agency TASS reported on Aug. 23.

kyivindependent.com

 

[TLEF316]

Maybe the dude is actually playing 3D chess here. Faking his death so that Putin DOESN'T come after him

#bigbrain

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russian media: Prigozhin's private jet crashes in Russia

Yevgeny Prigozhin's private plane has reportedly crashed in Russia's Tver Oblast, with the Wagner Group's owner listed as one of the passengers, the state-owned news agency TASS reported on Aug. 23.

kyivindependent.com

Interested to know if Utkin was on the plane as well. Some Twitter postings seem to point to the answer being in the affirmative there. Waiting to see confirmation.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1694397801382154719

The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel is reporting that Dmitry Utkin, the ostensible head of Wagner, was also among the passengers. "Wagner has been beheaded"

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1694409337899258146

The second (allegedly) Prigozhin-linked plane just landed in Moscow -- either Ostayevo or Vnukovo, depending on which Telegram channel you believe.

Because of course they'll get to the bottom of this:

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1694410610698535389

Rosaviatsia (Russian Air Transport Agency) will be leading an investigation into the causes of the crash. Sure.

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1694411013666324564

VChK-OGPU has a source saying that there was a rocket launch before the crash. A witness heard one loud bang, looked up, then saw/heard another explosion.

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1694411324082573392

Video of the mysterious second Prigozhin-linked plane landing at the Ostafyevo airport outside Moscow.https://t.me/readovkanews/64742

 

[HellToupee]

One bad guy kills another bad guy

 

[dickey moe]

One bad guy kills another bad guy

Maybe Putin will get ball cancer.

 

[Skipdog77]

One bad guy kills another bad guy

Technically, Putin killed 10 people, including the one bad guy he wanted to make a point on. The other 9 were just collateral damage, I guess. I wonder if they had families?

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

What a weird coincidence that they guy who led a coup against Putin apparently died in a plan crash. What are the odds?

It is so insane that this kind of stuff just keeps happening without recourse.

 

[Desert_Power]

Shocking development here

 

[need2know]

Putin is crazy as hell

 

[HellToupee]

One bad guy kills another bad guy

Technically, Putin killed 10 people, including the one bad guy he wanted to make a point on. The other 9 were just collateral damage, I guess. I wonder if they had families?

It was a Wagner plane. Doesn’t require all the mental gymnastics