*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (5 Viewers)

[thecatch]

What a weird coincidence that they guy who led a coup against Putin apparently died in a plan crash. What are the odds?

It is so insane that this kind of stuff just keeps happening without recourse.

It would have been weirder for Russia/Putin if this didn't happen.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Yeah....dude played it so badly. Did he really think he could get away with going halfway to a coup?

Guy thought he was just negotiate a deal and get away with. LOLZ

I hate Putin as much as the next guy, but I really can't criticize Putin for this one. I mean, what did you think was going to happen? Didn't this guy see Godfather II?

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Why would you ever be on a plane or within a mile of that guy? I’d be waiting for a bomb or some sarin gas to go off. Crazy.

I'd go on a walking tour of Yemen with Salman Rushdie before I went out for after-work drinks with Prigozhin.

 

[Skipdog77]

One bad guy kills another bad guy

Technically, Putin killed 10 people, including the one bad guy he wanted to make a point on. The other 9 were just collateral damage, I guess. I wonder if they had families?

It was a Wagner plane. Doesn’t require all the mental gymnastics

I had briefly seen it was a "private" plane, didn't see it was specifically a Wagner one.

Guess all is fair in love and war, but Putin is still a little *****.

 

[The Future Champs]

Yeah, that crash site... looks like they piled debris in a field and set fire to it.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1694443799894700246

Update: Looks like the only Wagner members who died today are Prigozhin, Utkin and 3 others: Propustin, Makaryan and Totmin (he reportedly fought in Sudan). The rest of Wagner commanders were not on board contrary to some initial reports

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1694442299319562749

The list of killed passengers, now published, includes not only Prigozhin and Utkin/Wagner, but also Valery Chekalov, the feared head of security for Prigozhin who, among other duties over the years, surveilled, harassed and attacked journalists who dared investigate his boss.

https://twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1694439632623071273

Police and National Guardsmen are ordered on alert in Rostov-on-Don, per local news outlet http://161.ru. Rostov is where Prigozhin's Wagner troops first entered during the June 23-24 mutiny (and where Prigozhin was later welcomed as a hero)

 

[Brunell4MVP]

I haven't been following as much as I used to ... where is the off ramp for Putin in all this? He's fighting a war he can't win, because even if he does on paper, Ukrainians will continue guerilla warfare for years and years. It's also an immense country in size to conquer.

At some point, doesn't Putin have to say "I was lied to by our generals, blah, blah, blah. We are pulling out but only if we get Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in eastern Ukraine." I think those are the Oblasts in Donbas region ... I may be wrong though. It seems to me if he can get something, or even keep Crimea he has an offramp he should be taking.

 

[Chadstroma]

I haven't been following as much as I used to ... where is the off ramp for Putin in all this? He's fighting a war he can't win, because even if he does on paper, Ukrainians will continue guerilla warfare for years and years. It's also an immense country in size to conquer.

At some point, doesn't Putin have to say "I was lied to by our generals, blah, blah, blah. We are pulling out but only if we get Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in eastern Ukraine." I think those are the Oblasts in Donbas region ... I may be wrong though. It seems to me if he can get something, or even keep Crimea he has an offramp he should be taking.

He is hoping to outlast western willpower to continue to support Ukraine with the ability to defend itself.

No matter the resolve of the Ukrainians to fight on, if the US and others stop supplying it with weapons and ammunition, it will falter and finally collapse. Russia is just too big, for a lack of a better word, for it to fight on without support. The Ukrainians would either fall or be forced to give up Crimea and the eastern regions Russia annexed last year in a treaty.

 

[Chadstroma]

Plane crash you say?

The only surprising thing is that he didn't fall out of a window.

 

[Chadstroma]

Yeah....dude played it so badly. Did he really think he could get away with going halfway to a coup?

Guy thought he was just negotiate a deal and get away with. LOLZ

I hate Putin as much as the next guy, but I really can't criticize Putin for this one. I mean, what did you think was going to happen? Didn't this guy see Godfather II?

I never got the impression that Prigozhin was a mental giant. Kind of shared that with Fredo.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Yeah....dude played it so badly. Did he really think he could get away with going halfway to a coup?

Guy thought he was just negotiate a deal and get away with. LOLZ

I hate Putin as much as the next guy, but I really can't criticize Putin for this one. I mean, what did you think was going to happen? Didn't this guy see Godfather II?

I never got the impression that Prigozhin was a mental giant. Kind of shared that with Fredo.

I was actually thinking of Pentageli, but Fredo is the much better reference here.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

‘A signal for the whole elite’: the demise of Yevgeny Prigozhin

A former senior Kremlin official told the FT. “I thought they were definitely going to rub him out. And so they did. Things like that can’t be forgiven. Everyone understands that the response to treason will be irreversible and swift. It’s a signal for the whole elite.”
Supporters of Putin might detect a kind of poetic justice in the manner of Prigozhin’s death after his Wagner troops shot down several helicopters and a transport plane during their march on Moscow, an attack that killed at least 13 Russian servicemen.
“Obviously this was ordered,” a person close to the Russian defence ministry said. “It was his people who killed the airmen, after all. You live by the sword, you die by the sword. It was totally unclear for two months why he was travelling the world . . . now they’ve liquidated him and it all makes sense.”

After his meeting with Prigozhin and several dozen Wagner fighters in the Kremlin in July, Putin said he had offered rank-and-file mercenaries the option of continuing to fight in Ukraine under regular military command. But Prigozhin rejected the overture and the transfer never took place.
The episode showed “Putin wanted to keep the core of Wagner because of their battlefield heroics and geopolitical value”, Stanovaya said, adding: “But I haven’t seen any signs that Prigozhin retained any value for Putin. The point of the meeting was likely so that Putin could quietly draw Wagner away from Prigozhin.”
As Prigozhin’s jet criss-crossed Russia and Belarus, and then flew as far as Mali, Moscow elites and western security officials alike started to suspect his time would soon be up.
“I thought they’d use novichok,” said a second former senior Kremlin official, referring to the nerve agent used to poison Kremlin opponents such as ex-spy Sergei Skripal and anti-corruption activist Alexei Navalny. “They’ve added something new to the menu.”

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1694471248703533492

The security services likely needed time to figure out how to control Wagner's activities overseas. There are reports that some Wagner leaders defected to Redut as its replacement. It was an opportunity to remove not just Prigozhin, but also Utkin and other key leaders at once.

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1694473748705894422

PMC Redut could be the biggest beneficiary of Prigozhin and Utkin's death

Redut's ranks swelled to 7,000 troops in 2023

It is aligned with the Russian Defence Ministry but there are persistent rumours that Redut PMCs have signed contracts outside the Defence Ministry's watch

Former Wagner commander Andrei Troshev is apparently the military commander of Redut.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Yevgeny Prigozhin’s reported death may consolidate Putin’s power

But it shows that Russia is a mafia state

www.economist.com

A senior source in Ukrainian intelligence said several figures in Russia were enraged enough to want Mr Prigozhin dead, including Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defence minister, a frequent target of Mr Prigozhin’s irate video messages over the summer. Nonetheless, an operation of this sort could not have gone ahead without authorisation from Vladimir Putin himself. “I don’t know for a fact what happened but I’m not surprised,” said Joe Biden, America’s president. “There’s not much that happens in Russia that Putin’s not behind.” Mr Burns was not the only spymaster to have seen trouble coming Mr Prigozhin’s way. In an interview in June, Kyrylo Budanov, the chief of HUR (Ukraine’s military spy agency), claimed the FSB, Russia’s security service, had been tasked to assassinate the mutineer.

Mr Prigozhin’s death is likely to have a negligible effect on the front lines in Ukraine. General Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s chief of general staff, whom Mr Prigozhin routinely attacked, has “brought some order to the military chaos of last year”, says John Foreman, Britain’s defence attaché in Moscow until last year. Wagner forces had been shoved aside after they led the conquest of Bakhmut in May. Its shock troops were not as important once Ukraine went on the offensive, says Mr Foreman, and politically suspect soldiers were less welcome in the trenches.

The impact on African countries, where Wagner was and remained active, is more uncertain. Mr Prigozhin had reportedly been in Africa, attempting to prevent the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence agency, from pushing his forces out of the continent. Wagner is not the only mercenary firm on the continent, and African leaders in need of muscle will not much care whether Russian troops answer to Mr Prigozhin or another Kremlin functionary.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Prigozhin presumed dead and Ukraine leaks

If it’s true — and <a href="https://x.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1694415100768145819?s=46&t=JSlKlToJK8h6TJ8mTrweqg">Wagner executives are saying it is</a> — it will fuel suspicion that Russian President <b>VLADIMIR PUTIN</b> got his revenge following the Prigozhin-led mutiny exactly two months ago.

www.politico.com

The Biden administration has minimized leaks since it came to power. But now it’s watching U.S. officials tell reporters about the darkening prospects for Ukraine’s counteroffensive and military advice Kyiv ignored — in what appears to be the first deliberate and sustained unauthorized leak campaign during Biden’s presidency.

This is nothing like the spill of classified materials on Discord or the administration’s purposeful downgrade of intelligence ahead of Russia’s invasion. Stories appearing in the Washington Post, the New York Times, the Financial Times and this newsletter, among others, all suggest one thing: Some people, somewhere in the bowels of government, want to pin Ukraine’s battlefield woes on Kyiv and deflect blame aimed at Washington.

Consider, for example, that multiple outlets reported on U.S. officials urging their Ukrainian counterparts to amass troops along one spot on the front with Russia to punch through it, instead of spreading forces thin along the 600-mile line.

Major authorized leaks need White House approval in this administration. Multiple officials anonymously told NatSec Daily that no green light was given, which National Security Council spokesperson Watson also supported on the record. “There is no coordinated leak campaign. Ukrainian forces are fighting heroically to defend their country and the only thing we are focused on is putting Ukraine in the best possible position to do that,” she said.

Some positive news for Ukraine is getting out. One senior defense intelligence official, requesting anonymity to discuss internal assessments, told us that Chief of the Russian General Staff Gen. VALERY GERASIMOV is “aggressively incompetent,” and his successful political maneuvering to retain his status signals that the Russian strategy is unlikely to change in any major way.

As for the more negative stories, dogged reporters, of course, could be talking to the same aides, who are more than happy to see their message spread around. It’s also natural that after one outlet reports a juicy nugget, others follow to confirm it, leading to an echo the original sources may never have intended.

But the reports have remarkably similar details and specific scenes. The NYT wrote about an Aug. 10 video teleconference in which Joint Chiefs Chair Gen. MARK MILLEY, alongside the top U.S. military official in Europe and his British counterpart, convinced the senior-most Ukrainian Gen. VALERIY ZALUZHNYY to focus on one main front.

Three U.S. officials, who like others spoke to us without authorization, said they believe Pentagon staffers — likely without the comms shop’s say so — are talking to the press out of turn, citing the above anecdote and a NatSec Daily edition on Milley’s war views last week as evidence (rest assured, we never reveal sources). Two others theorized that the leaks were coming from the intelligence community, especially since an assessment’s details reached WaPo (though that story noted the intelligence was briefed “to some Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill”).

If there’s one thing NatSec Daily knows for sure, it’s that unauthorized leaks drive this White House crazy, especially if they hint Biden isn’t fully supportive of a friendly nation or is airing dirty laundry in public. They certainly won’t like the suggestion that the information may be designed to inoculate the administration from criticism should Ukraine’s counteroffensive fail. After all, the main takeaway from the stories is that America shares no responsibility for Kyiv’s wartime problems.

One U.S. official claimed any further leakers may soon look foolish: “It’s way too early to start pointing fingers or placing blame, because in a couple weeks, people may be scrambling to take credit.”

There is some political talk in that article, but still relevant to the war as it pertains to some of the unnamed comments we've seen the last several days regarding Ukrainian tactics and strategy.

 

[Phil Elliott]

So do Wagner folks start fighting on behalf of Ukraine? Seems Putin kind of .

 

[culdeus]

So do Wagner folks start fighting on behalf of Ukraine? Seems Putin kind of .

That would be the metal chair play.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1694585117480538139

The Deep State channel updated its map to show Ukraine has liberated Robotyne. They credit the 47th, 65th, 116th, 117th, 118th, 71st, 46th, 82nd brigades; Skala battalion; 78th Regiment; 73rd Center; and NGU 3rd and 14th Brigades that fought in the area.

Thread: https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1694392581235372135

https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1694618992688672830

Good points here on cost efficiency & why GLSDB will fill a useful role when it comes online in the fall, filling that gap between GMLRS and Storm Shadow. Could be more impactful than other systems commonly mentioned.

https://twitter.com/Stanovaya/status/1694454748093485425

A few thoughts in light of Prigozhin's death.

No matter the cause of the plane crash, everyone will see this as an act of retaliation and retribution, and the Kremlin won't particularly counteract this view. From Putin's perspective, as well as many among the security and military officials, Prigozhin's death should serve as a lesson to any potential successors.

I see no reason why Putin would need Prigozhin in any capacity after the mutiny. The only question was whether to spare his life: I had no doubt that the Kremlin would gradually remove all geopolitical projects out from under him. After the mutiny, Prigozhin ceased to be a partner of the state and under no circumstances could he regain that status. He was also not forgiven. Prigozhin was only needed for some time after the mutiny to smoothly dismantle Wagner in Russia and move it to Belarus under new leadership.

Prigozhin was not a classic traitor: he did not consciously betray his homeland, but rather "lost his mind," having significant merits from Putin's perspective. The question was whether this would be enough to let him live. The issue here is that even if on a personal level, Putin might have been affirmative (which is not a given), on the state level (as Putin perceives it), it would be a vulnerability. And it was. A lively, energetic, and idea-filled Prigozhin was undoubtedly a walking issue for the regime, embodying Putin's political humiliation.

For a significant portion of the politicized, conservative public, Prigozhin's death is a well-deserved outcome. Even those who sympathized with him largely condemned the mutiny, believing it weakened the regime during wartime (and they are right).

Prigozhin's death is a direct threat to everyone who stayed with him till the end or openly supported him. It's more likely to intimidate rather than inspire protests. So, no special reaction should be expected. There will be indignation, but no serious political consequences.

Some info on the others on the plane: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/08/24/prigozhin-wagner-plane-crash-victims/

Wagner fighter in tears at a Prigozhin memorial: https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1694650882258821293

https://twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1694649810660282602

Russian investigators are looking at whether an explosive device was planted on Prigozhin's jet, in the landing gear, per Shot, a Telegram channel linked with one or more Russian security agencies.

Who could it be? The world may never know!

https://twitter.com/FrankRGardner/status/1694618676727583184

UK defence sources tell BBC: Prigozhin’s plane most likely brought down by Russia’s FSB domestic intel agency. Likely to strengthen position of Prigozhin’s enemies: Shoigu and Gerasimov.

Prigozhin sent ‘to hell’

As the first reports came in that Yevgeny Prigozhin had been killed, I spoke to Marat Gabidullin, who was a senior commander in Prigozhin’s mercenary army and for a time his personal assistant for military affairs. Gabidiullin is living in exile in France and well known as a bitter critic of...

www.spectator.co.uk

As the first reports came in that Yevgeny Prigozhin had been killed, I spoke to Marat Gabidullin, who was a senior commander in Prigozhin’s mercenary army and for a time his personal assistant for military affairs. Gabidiullin is living in exile in France and well known as a bitter critic of Prigozhin – he was forced to change addresses regularly, worried that Prigozhin would send someone to kill him. In the past, he described his old boss as brutal, greedy, smart, dangerous, and willing to sacrifice his men by the thousand for profit and power. But now he’s almost wistful at the thought of Prigozhin’s passing. He told me that one of Russia’s ‘greats’ had been brought down. ‘It’s the end of an era and the beginning of the time of the small people.’
We haven’t seen the body yet but it seems unlikely that Prigozhin will pop up somewhere, wearing one of the absurd wigs and false beards he had on in photographs supposedly found at his St Petersburg mansion by the Russian security services. So, assuming Prigozhin has met the violent end widely predicted for him after he ordered tanks to roll on Moscow in June, the question now is who gave the order: Vladimir Putin himself, or one of Prigozhin’s many rivals at court? To me, this seemed like a very public execution, something that could only have been ordered by Putin, and designed to send a message about what happens to anyone rash enough to challenge him. But Gabidullin isn’t so sure.
He thought this was the work of Sergei Shoigu, the defence minister. He said that Russian power in the world had been damaged as a result of Prigozhin’s killing, especially in Africa. No one could organise there like him. He didn’t think Putin would want this outcome. ‘This is a personal initiative of Shoigu… This was not Putin’s decision.’ Certainly, Prigozhin had fought a public, and increasingly personal, battle with Shoigu, accusing him of deliberately failing to supply Wagner with ammunition in Ukraine. As the bodies of Wagner fighters piled up, Prigozhin gave an interview attacking Shoigu’s family, saying his son-in-law– a critic of the war in Ukraine – should be ‘raped’ or ‘given the sledgehammer’.
In fact, Prigozhin had a long list of enemies. In the interview he gave about Shoigu, he also attacked Sergei Lavrov, the foreign minister, and other members of ‘the Moscow elites’ for sending their children abroad while ordinary Russians sent theirs to fight. ‘You sons of *******, gather up your offspring and send them to war.’ I was told by a former MI6 officer, now a private consultant on Russia, that even before the mutiny two months ago, there were many plots to kill Prigozhin by a number of his rivals, acting together or separately.
Perhaps Putin did not need to give the order: everyone knew what had to be done, and probably expected to be rewarded for doing it. A former officer in the FSB – the successor to the KGB – told me this was how things worked in Putin’s court. The boss gave a nod or a hint of what he wanted, and everyone would scramble to do it, knowing they’d get a bigger cut of the action in future.

What happens to Wagner group now?

Dmitry Utkin, the mercenary group’s co-founder, and Valeriy Chekalov, who is thought to have headed its security services, were also reported to be on the plane that crashed in Russia. Analysts believe there will be no serious backlash for Putin

www.thetimes.co.uk

Marat Gabidullin, a former Wagner mercenary, told The Times that the deaths of Prigozhin and Utkin would mean the end of the group’s activities in Africa. “They can forget about the Africa project,” he said.
It is thought to be doubtful if any of the Wagner’s surviving members have the clout to take control of the group. Valeriy Chekalov, who is thought to have headed Wagner’s security services, was also on board the business jet that crashed yesterday about 200 miles north of Moscow.

🔴 Live: Zelensky hails 'free people' of Ukraine on independence day

President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday marked his country's independence day with an address congratulating Ukrainians and praising the military personnel who are pushing back against Russian forces…

www.france24.com

Norway has decided to donate F-16 combat aircraft to Ukraine, Norwegian broadcaster TV2 reported on Thursday, citing unnamed sources.

It did not say how many jets Norway would provide.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

🔴 Live: Zelensky hails 'free people' of Ukraine on independence day

President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday marked his country's independence day with an address congratulating Ukrainians and praising the military personnel who are pushing back against Russian forces…

www.france24.com

Ukraine's navy and military intelligence carried out a "special operation" overnight in which service personnel landed on Russian-occupied Crimea, the defence ministry's Main Directorate of Intelligence said on Thursday.

"Special units on watercraft landed on the shore in the area of Olenivka and Mayak settlements," it said, adding that "all goals" had been achieved and casualties inflicted on the enemy. It did not identify the goals.

FRANCE 24 was unable to independently verify the report.

Some video of that apparent operation here: https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-...updates-12541713?postid=6333349#liveblog-body

Ukraine says its forces carried out a raid on the Crimean coast

Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin was on board a plane that crashed with no survivors northwest of Moscow, according to Russian authorities, just months after he launched a mutiny against Russia's military leadership. Follow live updates here.

www.cnn.com

Ukrainian forces carried out what Kyiv called a special operation in the annexed Crimean Peninsula, a government spokesman said Thursday. What exactly happened remains unclear.

Andrii Yusov, a spokesman for Ukraine's Directorate of Intelligence, said the agency partnered with Ukraine's Navy to carry out the operation. Yusov said authorities would not be disclosing all the details surrounding the mission -- only that it was a success, there were no Ukrainian casualties and that there were losses on the enemy's side.

While Yusov declined to offer details, accounts on social media help paint a picture of what happened. According to a channel called "Krym Realii" on the messaging app Telegram, explosions were heard near the village of Mayak on Cape Tarkhankut at about 5 a.m. Other unofficial social media accounts spoke of hearing gunfire near a campsite on the Crimean coast. One said that people had seen two rubber boats close to the shore.

Russian forces are believed to have stationed missiles at various locations on Crimea's west coast that have been used to target Odesa, a nearby Ukrainian port city on the Black Sea, and other locations.

Witness describes what he saw as Prigozhin's plane fell from the sky

Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin was on board a plane that crashed with no survivors northwest of Moscow, according to Russian authorities, just months after he launched a mutiny against Russia's military leadership. Follow live updates here.

www.cnn.com

Vitaly Stepenok, a 72-year-old resident of the village of Kuzhenkino, shared with Reuters his account of what happened when the plane believed to be carrying Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin fell from the sky.

Stepenok said he first heard a loud bang and was afraid the plane would land on houses in Kuzhenkino, which lies roughly midway between the cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg.

"Usually, if an explosion happens on the ground then you get an echo, but it was just a bang and I looked up and saw white smoke," Stepenok told Reuters.
"One wing flew off in one direction and the fuselage went like that," he said, gesturing with his arms to show how the plane headed down towards the ground. "And then it glided down on one wing. It didn't nose-dive, it was gliding."

After the crash, Stepenok said he jumped on his bike and arrived at the scene in 20 minutes.

"Everything was on fire. People were walking around. They dragged someone out, their remains," he said.

 

[themeistersinger]

Russian State Media Says Wagner Group Honcho Yevgeny Prigozhin is Dead; What Comes Next?

https://redstate.com/streiff/2023/08/24/russian-state-media-says-wagner-group-honcho-yevgeny-prigozhin-is-dead-what-comes-next-n2162977

 

[themeistersinger]

Prigozhin Plane Crash: What Do We Know? - The Moscow Times

A plane carrying Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin crashed northwest of Moscow on Wednesday, exactly two months after he and his mercenary outfit launched a failed coup against Russia’s military leadership.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[Da Guru]

Plane crash you say?

The only surprising thing is that he didn't fall out of a window.

It was only a matter of time. I thought it would be poisoned food as that seems to be Putins MO.

 

[Phil Elliott]

Lots of conflicting info being reported...
- video was couple years old?
- engine placement under wings vs on tail?
- another similar plane, owned by Prighozin took off similar time and returned to Petersburg?
- chatter on Wagner chat rooms talking revolt against Putin.
Taking everything related to this story with grain of salt

 

[themeistersinger]

Norway Upgrades Border Fence With Russia to Stop Reindeer Crossings - The Moscow Times

Norwegian authorities said Thursday they will upgrade a fence near Norway's border with Russia in the far north to stop its reindeer from making crossings over the international boundary.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Lots of conflicting info being reported...
- video was couple years old?
- engine placement under wings vs on tail?
- another similar plane, owned by Prighozin took off similar time and returned to Petersburg?
- chatter on Wagner chat rooms talking revolt against Putin.
Taking everything related to this story with grain of salt

This is not the first time that Prigozhin has died in a plane crash. Prigozhin was on the manifest for the Congolese Air Force An-72 providing support for the Conglese president in 2019. That plane just dropped off the radar.

Is Prigozhin alive? Leader ‘died’ in similar scenario in Congo plane crash in 2019

Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin was thought to have died in plane crash in Congo several years ago, it has been revealed, as rumours spread the leader has “faked his death”. Prigozhin is thought to be among 10 people killed in a plane crash in Russia on Wednesday evening. Speaking to...

www.independent.co.uk

 

[themeistersinger]

Prigozhin Supporters Mourn Wagner Boss After Apparent Death - The Moscow Times

Supporters of Wagner Group leader Yevegny Prigozhin, who is believed to have been killed in a dramatic plane crash, have started laying flowers outside the former headquarters of the mercenary outfit in St.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[themeistersinger]

MSN

Ukraine says it landed troops on the shores of Russian-occupied Crimea​

 

[culdeus]

Prigozhin Supporters Mourn Wagner Boss After Apparent Death - The Moscow Times

Supporters of Wagner Group leader Yevegny Prigozhin, who is believed to have been killed in a dramatic plane crash, have started laying flowers outside the former headquarters of the mercenary outfit in St.

www.themoscowtimes.com

Like who is a supporter of this toolstick?

 

[Chadstroma]

Plane crash you say?

The only surprising thing is that he didn't fall out of a window.

It was only a matter of time. I thought it would be poisoned food as that seems to be Putins MO.

Yea but I think the difference on this one is that they would want to get as many of the top leadership out of the way as possible from Wagner. This got the top guy and the second top guy in one stroke... prob a couple more fairly up the chain underlings too.

 

[culdeus]

Plane crash you say?

The only surprising thing is that he didn't fall out of a window.

It was only a matter of time. I thought it would be poisoned food as that seems to be Putins MO.

Yea but I think the difference on this one is that they would want to get as many of the top leadership out of the way as possible from Wagner. This got the top guy and the second top guy in one stroke... prob a couple more fairly up the chain underlings too.

The second guy is still missing, he wasn't on the plane as far as has been reported.

 

[Chadstroma]

Plane crash you say?

The only surprising thing is that he didn't fall out of a window.

It was only a matter of time. I thought it would be poisoned food as that seems to be Putins MO.

Yea but I think the difference on this one is that they would want to get as many of the top leadership out of the way as possible from Wagner. This got the top guy and the second top guy in one stroke... prob a couple more fairly up the chain underlings too.

The second guy is still missing, he wasn't on the plane as far as has been reported.

Among those killed in the crash was Dmitry Utkin, a shadowy figure who managed Wagner's operations and allegedly served in Russian military intelligence.

I have speed read most things recently... just too much on the plate. I think I must have read this and got my wires crossed that he was second in command. Him and then Prigozhin's security chief are supposed to have died on it. Regardless, a good amount of decapitation of the leadership in one event.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

A couple weeks ago I thought it felt like things had changed a little bit -- but didn't want to say so. Now it's gotten pretty clear Ukraine is putting serious pressure on Russians towards Tokmak. It's not exactly a breakthrough yet, but it's definitely different qualitatively than where we've been since the start of the counter-offensive in June.

 

[themeistersinger]

What Does Victory Look Like for Ukraine?

What, then, would a Ukraine victory look like? The minimum would be a withdrawal of Russian forces from the territories it occupied in 2022. The maximum would be a complete withdrawal of the territories Russia seized in 2014—the Crimea and Donbas.

www.19fortyfive.com

 

[themeistersinger]

How Russia's War in Ukraine Could 'Collapse'

Russia doesn’t have the luxury of keeping its defensive lines short, unless it chooses to relinquish the ground behind them. And if Ukrainian forces can starve their opponent of firepower by interrupting its supplies, they could collapse the line altogether.

www.19fortyfive.com

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I haven't been following as much as I used to ... where is the off ramp for Putin in all this? He's fighting a war he can't win, because even if he does on paper, Ukrainians will continue guerilla warfare for years and years. It's also an immense country in size to conquer.

At some point, doesn't Putin have to say "I was lied to by our generals, blah, blah, blah. We are pulling out but only if we get Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in eastern Ukraine." I think those are the Oblasts in Donbas region ... I may be wrong though. It seems to me if he can get something, or even keep Crimea he has an offramp he should be taking.

He is hoping to outlast western willpower to continue to support Ukraine with the ability to defend itself.

No matter the resolve of the Ukrainians to fight on, if the US and others stop supplying it with weapons and ammunition, it will falter and finally collapse. Russia is just too big, for a lack of a better word, for it to fight on without support. The Ukrainians would either fall or be forced to give up Crimea and the eastern regions Russia annexed last year in a treaty.

Exactly.

Russia is just too big with too many natural resources. Their economy hasn't really been that majorly impacted by the war. The world is too dependent on on natural gas and oil. Their GDP is down only 2%. Their debt to GDP ratio is still insanely low. Way lower than the US or any Western European Nation. Putin's approval rating is still extremely high. They could do this for another 50 years.

Ukraine is the opposite. GDP is down 30% in a year and falling fast. Debt to GDP ratio quickly approaching the point where they're going to start defaulting, even before we consider the estimated $350B it would cost to rebuild. They are extremely reliant on western support and as we've seen many times in the past, the west eventually gets tired of paying for that support, and it's happening even faster this time. Without getting political, that could be over as soon as 2024 from the US's standpoint (the US alone accounts for roughly half of the money spent to aid Ukraine militarily) as it will be a major campaign issue with one side already showing signs that a part of the election platform will be to end or extremely limit support there.

Russia knows all this, which is why they've stopped advancing and worked tirelessly at building defenses at their forward line in Ukraine. They know all they have to do is wait it out, and eventually Ukraine will lose their external support, and then they can resume the offensive. Ukraine knows this as well, which means they have to continue to try and press forward more than they're ready for because they know time is against them. That worked fine when Russia was over-extended. Not so much when Russia is entrenched.

It's a bit ironic because the original thought was the longer the war was drawn out the harder it would get for Russia. But it's really been the opposite. Russia's economy has proven extremely resilient and far less impacted than originally thought, and in the end it's actually the opposite where the longer it gets drawn out the better it is for Russia.

 

[culdeus]

I haven't been following as much as I used to ... where is the off ramp for Putin in all this? He's fighting a war he can't win, because even if he does on paper, Ukrainians will continue guerilla warfare for years and years. It's also an immense country in size to conquer.

At some point, doesn't Putin have to say "I was lied to by our generals, blah, blah, blah. We are pulling out but only if we get Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in eastern Ukraine." I think those are the Oblasts in Donbas region ... I may be wrong though. It seems to me if he can get something, or even keep Crimea he has an offramp he should be taking.

He is hoping to outlast western willpower to continue to support Ukraine with the ability to defend itself.

No matter the resolve of the Ukrainians to fight on, if the US and others stop supplying it with weapons and ammunition, it will falter and finally collapse. Russia is just too big, for a lack of a better word, for it to fight on without support. The Ukrainians would either fall or be forced to give up Crimea and the eastern regions Russia annexed last year in a treaty.

Exactly.

Russia is just too big with too many natural resources. Their economy hasn't really been that majorly impacted by the war. The world is too dependent on on natural gas and oil. Their GDP is down only 2%. Their debt to GDP ratio is still insanely low. Way lower than the US or any Western European Nation. Putin's approval rating is still extremely high. They could do this for another 50 years.

Ukraine is the opposite. GDP is down 30% in a year and falling fast. Debt to GDP ratio quickly approaching the point where they're going to start defaulting, even before we consider the estimated $350B it would cost to rebuild. They are extremely reliant on western support and as we've seen many times in the past, the west eventually gets tired of paying for that support, and it's happening even faster this time. Without getting political, that could be over as soon as 2024 from the US's standpoint (the US alone accounts for roughly half of the money spent to aid Ukraine militarily) as it will be a major campaign issue with one side already showing signs that a part of the election platform will be to end or extremely limit support there.

Russia knows all this, which is why they've stopped advancing and worked tirelessly at building defenses at their forward line in Ukraine. They know all they have to do is wait it out, and eventually Ukraine will lose their external support, and then they can resume the offensive. Ukraine knows this as well, which means they have to continue to try and press forward more than they're ready for because they know time is against them. That worked fine when Russia was over-extended. Not so much when Russia is entrenched.

It's a bit ironic because the original thought was the longer the war was drawn out the harder it would get for Russia. But it's really been the opposite. Russia's economy has proven extremely resilient and far less impacted than originally thought, and in the end it's actually the opposite where the longer it gets drawn out the better it is for Russia.

A few problems with this thinking. Rebuilding funds can often come more freely as there is some gains in there. The fact that it big may be a feature not a bug. Plus some thought they just sanction it out of Russia.

 

[themeistersinger]

Russia Is Poised To Upend the 'Diplomatic Chessboard' in Ukraine

President Vladimir Putin is reasserting his power in Russia, and he could be poised to upend the diplomatic chessboard in Ukraine. Washington and the West seem unprepared to react effectively.

www.19fortyfive.com

 

[The Z Machine]

Russia Is Poised To Upend the 'Diplomatic Chessboard' in Ukraine

President Vladimir Putin is reasserting his power in Russia, and he could be poised to upend the diplomatic chessboard in Ukraine. Washington and the West seem unprepared to react effectively.

www.19fortyfive.com

Yeah, I'm inherently skeptical of anything John Bolton says about foreign policy. He seems to be wishcasting a bit here if he thinks Putin will announce a cease fire through China to put pressure on the west to stop aid to Ukraine. That's a lot of dominoes to fall that seem not likely at this time.

 

[themeistersinger]

The Horror in Bucha | National Review

The fact that we want to turn away, or can’t stand to look at it, doesn’t mean it didn’t happen.

www.nationalreview.com

 

[themeistersinger]

The Truth About Russia's "Missing" SU-57 Stealth Fighter

Video Sponsored by Ridge. Check them out here: https://ridge.com/TASKANDPURPOSE. Use my code “TASKANDPURPOSE” for 10% off your order and for an entry to win...

www.youtube.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Thread by @WarintheFuture on Thread Reader App

@WarintheFuture: While I have explored the impact of autonomous systems previously (in my 2018 CSBA report and in "War Transformed"), I wanted to provide some updated observations on their employment in #Ukraine and...…

threadreaderapp.com

 

[themeistersinger]

In Death, Prigozhin Stands to Leave a Lasting Mark on Russia - The Moscow Times

The death of Wagner mercenary group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has silenced one of the loudest critics of the Russian military’s performance in Ukraine and thrown the future of his business and private military empires into uncertainty.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[themeistersinger]

With Allies Scarce, Russia Paints Itself as the Enemy of ‘Western Colonialism’ - The Moscow Times

Opinion | The 11th Moscow Conference on International Security brought together leading figures of the Russian security apparatus with the defense ministers of Moscow’s non-Western partners, and an increasingly scarce array of international allies. After discussing the emerging multipolar world...

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Drone Attacks on Moscow Pressure Russia Far From the Frontlines - The Moscow Times

Repeated drone attacks on Moscow and its surrounding areas reflect a shift in Ukraine’s war strategy to chip away at Russia away from the frontlines, experts have told The Moscow Times.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

There is a video here where ex RAF pilot Sean Bell discusses some of the drone attacks on Russia recently: https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-...updates-12541713?postid=6361161#liveblog-body

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian forces advanced near Bakhmut in Dontesk Oblast and Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 29. Geolocated footage published on August 29 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced south of Bakhmut and about five kilometers southeast of

www.understandingwar.org

Russian sources continued to express concerns over Russian vulnerabilities in eastern and western Zaporizhia Oblast. One Russian milblogger claimed that the situation near Verbove (18km southwest of Orikhiv) is “very dangerous.”[8] Russian “Vostok” Battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky, reportedly defending the eastern Donetsk-western Zaporizhia Oblast border area, claimed that Russian forces in his sector are stretched in a long arc along the frontline, are having difficulties transferring reserves, and lack resources.[9] Khodakovsky claimed that Ukrainian efforts to cut off Russian transport routes would further complicate the situation.[10] Khodakovsky has previously highlighted concerns about the Russian defense in the eastern Donetsk-western Zaporizhia Oblast border area, specifically relating to poor Russian counterbattery capabilities, heavy Russian losses, exhausted Russian forces, and a lack of reserves.[11] The “Vostok” Battalion claimed that Ukrainian forces disrupted their logistics on August 28 by striking their rear area with drones.[12] The “Vostok” Battalion noted that Ukrainian shelling has wounded several of its personnel and that Russian electronic warfare (EW) systems are failing to down Ukrainian aircraft and drones.[13] Khodakovsky’s and the “Vostok” Battalion’s complaints are likely those of tactical commanders focused on their own local issues on a sector of the front that is of lower priority to Russian theater commanders who are focusing efforts in western Zaporizhia. These concerns could well be valid, but senior Russian commanders could have contingencies in place should the situation here deteriorate that they have not troubled to communicate to Khodakovsky and his colleagues. Such tensions between de-prioritized tactical commanders and higher commanders are not uncommon in war.

Ukraine war: Russia suffers biggest drone attack since invasion

Moscow has accused Ukraine of staging its largest attack yet on Russian soil after a wave of drones struck Pskov airport, setting two military transport plane

www.thetimes.co.uk

Moscow has accused Ukraine of staging its largest attack yet on Russian soil after a wave of drones struck Pskov airport, setting two military transport planes alight and damaging two more.
Thick black smoke billowed over Pskov, which is more than 400 miles north of the nearest Ukrainian border, suggesting that other targets may have been hit, such as an oil depot.
Five other Russian regions were targeted early on Wednesday, including occupied Crimea. A microchip factory was said to be on fire in Bryansk, an oil reservoir was hit in Kaluga and strikes were reported on the Cherekhinsky military base. Kremlin officials said the Black Sea port of Sevastapol had been targeted with naval drones.
The attacks temporarily grounded flights at Moscow’s three main airports: Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo and Domodedovo.
In Kyiv two security guards were killed overnight as cruise missiles and drones targeted the Ukrainian capital in what officials called a deliberate attack on civilians.
Mikhail Vernikov, the Pskov regional governor, said there were no casualties but that the scale of destruction was being assessed.
Russian Telegram channels posted videos of Ilyushin Il-76 aircraft burning, with unconfirmed reports that all four had been destroyed along with a Tupolev Tu-22 jet bomber.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1696811846303449093

GeoConfirmed UKR [CO] - BREACH - Tokmak Axis. Russian Artillery (100th Sep. Recon BDE) shelling Ukrainians BEHIND the first Surovikin Defense line near #Verbove. The 82nd Air Assault Brigade has breached.

Some video here as well: https://twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1696753064072339640

Busy night overnight for Russian air defenses, with Ukrainian drones reported over Pskov, Bryansk, Kaluga, Orlov and Ryazan. At Pskov, home to a major base for paratroopers, 4 Il-76 planes were damaged, 2 "burst into flames."

Video of air defenses in Pskov: https://twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1696793010091012488

https://twitter.com/Mike_Eckel/status/1696825972773802260

Ukrainian military intelligence now claims that all 4 Il-76 planes at the Pskov military field were destroyed.

https://twitter.com/yarotrof/status/1696789521118138689

Russia was planning to use these Il-76 in Pskov to land airborne troops in Hostomel and seize Kyiv 18 months ago. The Il-76 didn’t get to go to Kyiv, but Kyiv did come to them.

Some more video from Pskov: https://twitter.com/kromark/status/1696769677978923496

UK MoD: https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1696757973970751746

Ukrainian Drones Strike Deep Inside Russia, Hitting Military Airfield, Other Targets

As Kyiv disabled four Russian planes in a strike on the Pskov air base, Moscow launched a missile barrage on the Ukrainian capital.

www.wsj.com

In the city of Bryansk, one of the Ukrainian drones hit the compound of Kremniy El, one of Russia’s largest producers of microelectronics used in missiles and other weapons, causing a fire, according to local media. Hours later, another Ukrainian drone hit near the TV tower in the city. In the Kaluga region, a Ukrainian drone struck a fuel storage facility, causing a fire, according to the local governor.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

The Object of Ukraine’s Desire: F-16s From the West. But It’s Tricky.

Ukraine’s sense of urgency in obtaining the fighter jet reflects concerns about the war against Russia, but also the political calendar in the West. But training pilots and support crew is a lengthy process.

www.nytimes.com

There is another wrinkle in plans to deliver the planes. The United States must give approval before other countries can send American-made jets to Ukraine. The Biden administration has signaled to Denmark, Norway and the Netherlands that it will allow the transfers, but a new president could reverse those case-by-case agreements if delivery has not yet been completed, according to a U.S. official.
Several officials cited in this article spoke on condition of anonymity, saying they were not authorized to discuss the issue publicly.
A former senior Biden administration official said that Mr. Zelensky’s spate of F-16 announcements was also likely intended to lock in Western commitments in the event that a sluggish counteroffensive erodes political support among allies.

Mr. Zelensky’s sense of urgency has been unmistakable. In addition to his diplomatic forays, he mentioned the F-16s at least eight times during his nightly addresses in August, predicting that their presence in Ukrainian skies will vanquish Russian forces. Officials in Kyiv have even used the death last week of one of their famed pilots in a training accident to underscore that Ukraine needs the jets to win.
Part of the jets’ appeal is that it is in plentiful supply. Many European air forces have F-16s and are getting rid of them to transition to the even more advanced F-35. So they exist in ample numbers with a built-in Western repair and supply chain, and training programs that can support them years into the future.
However, the immediate hurdle to fielding the F-16s that have been pledged is not the actual jets, but the shortage of trained English-speaking Ukrainian pilots and support crew to fly and maintain them.
A former senior U.S. Air Force officer said it takes between 8 to 14 support personnel to maintain, fuel and support each F-16, depending on how many bases the jets operate from. It will take roughly as long to train the support crews as the pilots, the officer said.
So far, American officials have said, only eight Ukrainian pilots are sufficiently fluent in English and experienced in flying combat aircraft to have started training on the F-16s in Denmark. At least 20 other pilots are starting English-language instruction in Britain.
Even Ukrainian pilots skilled at flying the Soviet-era MiG-29 jets that make up much of Kyiv’s current fleet would have to learn to navigate the F-16s’ “hands-on throttle and stick” or “HOTAS” technology; that’s a system that would let them shift from bombing targets on the ground to engaging in air-to-air combat without taking their hands off the controls.
The system makes it easier to navigate between the two targets than on a MiG-29, but it still takes time to learn.
“That all is going to take time and that probably is not going to happen before the end of the year,” Gen. James B. Hecker, the top U.S. air commander in Europe, told reporters at George Washington University’s Defense Writers Group on Aug. 18.
One U.S. adviser said Ukraine will probably deploy the initial F-16s as soon as the pilots are certified to fly, in a range of defensive and offensive combat missions. Given the advanced weapons the F-16s will carry, just having them deployed, even in a niche capacity, could force Russia to dedicate valuable resources to monitor and counter them, the adviser said.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1696566213470548421

“A German businessman has been detained for allegedly providing electrical components to Russia that were used to make Orlan-10 drones deployed in the war in Ukraine”

https://twitter.com/Jack_Watling/status/1696627220704264449

Around 80% of casualties in the conflict have been caused by... not FPV drones. And the number of times weather, EW, light, means you just can't call on them is an issue. When you scale a UAS you become very vulnerable to hard counters. It is such a bad take. UAS and Arty combine

 

[themeistersinger]

‘We Don’t Need Heroes Who Marched on Moscow’: How the Kremlin Silenced Prigozhin’s Funeral - The Moscow Times

The decision to keep Yevgeny Prigozhin’s funeral a secret was made by the Russian presidential administration and the security services, two acting Russian officials told The Moscow Times on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the issue. Even after his Aug. 23 death in a plane...

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Washington’s Hesitant Ukraine Strategy Hands Victory to Putin - The Moscow Times

Opinion | As Kyiv’s counteroffensive stalls and a decisive Ukrainian victory looks increasingly unlikely, suggestions by some American experts that the United States should initiate peace talks between Russia and Ukraine may seem tempting.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[themeistersinger]

Ukraine Says Gains on Southern Front Pave Way to Crimea - The Moscow Times

Ukraine said Wednesday that its recapture of Robotyne village this week was a strategic victory paving the way for its forces to push deeper into Russian positions in the south towards Crimea.

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[themeistersinger]

General Staff: Ukrainian forces continue advance south of Robotyne

Ukrainian forces continue to gain ground past the recently-liberated village of Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Ukriane's General Staff said on Aug. 30.

kyivindependent.com