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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (3 Viewers)


🇩🇪🇺🇦 | Another Iris-T SLM air defense system pledged by Germany arrived in Ukraine on Friday, Der Spiegel reported.

Ukraine now has four Iris-T SLM medium-range systems and one Iris-T SLS short-range system.


A Russian bomb has hit a supermarket in Kharkiv, say officials. More than 200 people were reportedly inside. At least two dead so far.


A strike on a civilian shopping mall in Kharkiv today left an unknown number of civilians dead. The target was not military. Meanwhile, I often see satellite images of civilian structures used by the Russian military, including homes with children, yet we never strike them


Ukrainian 🇺🇦 MiG-29/Su-27 fighter jets are now equipped with US 🇺🇸 GBU-39 Small Diameter Glide Bombs with a maximum range of ~110km


European countries will only reluctantly agree to a U.S. push to use the profits of frozen Russian assets to secure a loan of up to $50 billion for Ukraine.

With finance ministers of the G7 group of advanced economies meeting in Italy on Saturday, the EU’s most powerful capitals demanded guarantees from the U.S. they wouldn't end up bearing the costs of what they see as Washington’s pet project.

Europe is worried that agreeing to the U.S. proposal would give Washington a PR win, while they will ultimately be the ones footing the bill.

Under the plan, yearly interest on the assets would be used to pay the loan back, but European officials are keen to sketch out a backup plan in case the assets are handed back to Russia when the war is over.

There are related fears that European taxpayers would have to cough up the cash if Ukraine’s debt repayments are delayed by its creditors under a peace settlement.

Two European officials expressed fears that EU countries that are sympathetic to Russia, such as Hungary, might oppose anything that comes close to the U.S. plan. A single government can block the renewal of sanctions against Russia every six months — adding a further layer of uncertainty to this funding path.
 
Video of WSJ on the ground in Eastern Ukraine with an artillery team from the 24th Mechanized Brigade: Outgunned and Short on Shells: Inside a Ukrainian Front-Line Artillery Unit

‘Everyone will fight.’ Ukrainian men weigh their options as new draft law comes into effect

One Ukrainian commander who asked not to be named for security reasons said the personnel shortages are having devastating effects on the battlefield.

“If there had been 1,000 to 1,500 more servicemen in Avdiivka, we would have protected the weak spots through which the enemy entered. … If we had more people, we would have held out much longer,” he told CNN of the eastern industrial city, which fell to Russian forces in February after Ukraine held it for more than a decade.


Making the case for a new mobilization, Yurii Sodol, the commander of the Joint Forces of Ukraine’s military, told Ukrainian lawmakers last month that Russian troops outnumbered Ukrainian “seven to 10 times” in eastern Ukraine.

This lack of personnel is putting immense pressure on those who are already serving.

“The war is still going on and mobilization is essential. People who have been fighting for two years are tired. Some are going crazy,” said Yaroslav Galas, who is currently serving with the 128th Mountain Assault Brigade.
“Soldiers need proper rest for several months. They need to heal, relax and forget. They need to spend the money they have earned with sweat and blood, to solve their economic and personal issues,” he told CNN.

It is unclear how many people will end up being called up. Late last year, the leader of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s Servant of the People faction in parliament said the military was looking for an extra 500,000 servicemen and women. But the Commander-in-Chief of Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi said recently that any increase in numbers would likely be significantly lower.

Some military officers are already questioning whether it will work. Their main worry is that they’ll end up with units full of men who are only there because someone forced them to be.
“We still want people to join voluntarily. Because there is a big difference between someone who was drafted into the army and someone who went to defend their homeland,” said Dmytro Kulibaba, a soldier with the 114th Territorial Defense Brigade.


“The desire to fight the enemy is very important, in addition to training, equipment and preparedness,” he told CNN.

Galas said that many people are worried that if they get drafted, they will be automatically sent to the frontlines – which he said is not the case.

“If you are a specialist, for example, who in civilian life was engaged in IT, accounting, project management, even cooks, clerks, then the Armed Forces also need you … and you can also make a fairly large contribution to the common victory by joining the Armed Forces,” he said. “We have a separate drone unit who are a little further away from the frontline. People who are good at electronics, even those who like to play computer games, will quickly master this specialty.”

Galas told CNN he believes the mobilization campaign has not been going well because it does not give people enough information.

“It scares people away,” he said. “They don’t know what is happening in the combat brigades and it needs to be explained to them.”

He said that despite the initial worry, many soldiers adapt well to their new life, giving an example of a young IT specialist who was mobilized within the past few months.

“Once he joined this team, he saw that life in an infantry unit is not what civilians imagine. Yes, it is dangerous and difficult. But good people are there, and the bad ones don’t stay. There is a sense of camaraderie. And this is important,” he explained.

The IT man had impressed his commanders immediately, he added.

“He did very well during his first combat mission in Robotyno, holding positions 400 meters away from the Russians. He not only withstood assaults but also took prisoners,” he said.

But not everyone is able to adjust to the realities of life on the frontline. The commanding officer who asked to remain anonymous spoke of another problem with the mobilization, saying that in recent times some recruits have not received the training they need to withstand the pressure.

“The infantry being sent to the frontline needs to be given special training to make them real professionals. Because they come in here, drop their weapons, and run away from their positions,” he said.

“There must be motivation for the current military and those about to serve. We cannot use the methods used in Russia or Belarus – catching and imposing – this will not help. It will only lead to people running away and giving up their positions,” he added.
 

🇩🇪🇺🇦 | Another Iris-T SLM air defense system pledged by Germany arrived in Ukraine on Friday, Der Spiegel reported.

Ukraine now has four Iris-T SLM medium-range systems and one Iris-T SLS short-range system.


A Russian bomb has hit a supermarket in Kharkiv, say officials. More than 200 people were reportedly inside. At least two dead so far.


A strike on a civilian shopping mall in Kharkiv today left an unknown number of civilians dead. The target was not military. Meanwhile, I often see satellite images of civilian structures used by the Russian military, including homes with children, yet we never strike them


Ukrainian 🇺🇦 MiG-29/Su-27 fighter jets are now equipped with US 🇺🇸 GBU-39 Small Diameter Glide Bombs with a maximum range of ~110km


European countries will only reluctantly agree to a U.S. push to use the profits of frozen Russian assets to secure a loan of up to $50 billion for Ukraine.

With finance ministers of the G7 group of advanced economies meeting in Italy on Saturday, the EU’s most powerful capitals demanded guarantees from the U.S. they wouldn't end up bearing the costs of what they see as Washington’s pet project.

Europe is worried that agreeing to the U.S. proposal would give Washington a PR win, while they will ultimately be the ones footing the bill.

Under the plan, yearly interest on the assets would be used to pay the loan back, but European officials are keen to sketch out a backup plan in case the assets are handed back to Russia when the war is over.

There are related fears that European taxpayers would have to cough up the cash if Ukraine’s debt repayments are delayed by its creditors under a peace settlement.

Two European officials expressed fears that EU countries that are sympathetic to Russia, such as Hungary, might oppose anything that comes close to the U.S. plan. A single government can block the renewal of sanctions against Russia every six months — adding a further layer of uncertainty to this funding path.
I thought I remember seeing an IRIS-T system was destroyed by the Russians recently. I saw the pledge but didn't realize they would deliver so quickly. That is good news. Ukraine can not get enough air defense systems right now.
 

Russian air defenses crumble under relentless Ukrainian drone attacks​

Story by Sławomir Zagórski


Since the beginning of the war, Ukrainians have been forced to mitigate Russian advantages. They strike where it hurts Russia the most: critical systems whose absence severely hampers their operations. The destruction of each anti-aircraft system is harrowing for the Kremlin.

In a month, the Russians lost six 9K37 Buk-M1 anti-aircraft systems
, which are responsible for air defense over distances up to 50 miles. These systems are designed to shoot down not only aircraft but also cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and even HARM anti-radar missiles. However, they all fell victim to unmanned aerial vehicles, including improvised commercial drones and tube artillery.

Since the beginning of the year, the Russians have lost nearly two dozen different elements of self-propelled anti-aircraft systems - from radars to launchers and technical vehicles. As a result, Russian anti-access bubbles are bursting with a bang. Many geopolitical experts previously asserted that these bubbles were so extensive and modern that a potential adversary of the Kremlin would think twice before striking Russian forces.

The anti-access bubbles have burst in the case of strategic anti-aircraft systems, which cannot prevent attacks on the oil and energy industry or effectively protect bases and ports.

Both equipment and human factors fail​

Moreover, at the tactical level, anti-access bubbles are also failing. Meanwhile, smaller systems like the Pantsir-S1 often recognize aerial vehicles of this size as birds and do not attack automatically or semi-automatically.

Such drones are best shot down manually by anti-aircraft gun crews, where good eyesight and soldier skills matter, and the Russians are lacking in these areas.

It has reached the point where the Russians have attempted to shoot down FlyEye drones using the 9K37 Buk-M1 system, which is theoretically not designed to destroy targets of this size. The attempt resulted in the firing of four missiles that missed, ultimately leading to the destruction of the launcher by artillery directed by the drone operator.

The biggest problem for the Russians is the lack of appropriate radars and communication systems to detect targets and relay their coordinates in real-time to the launchers. In theory, the Russians have such systems. In practice, both the equipment and the human factor fail. The systems are susceptible to interference, causing the operators to become blind and deaf even before the strike.

"Wild Weasels"​

However, there are circumstances in which Ukrainians prefer when Russian radars are operational. This allows them to detect and destroy Russian positions using American HARM anti-radar missiles. Ukraine is the first former Eastern Bloc country to have established its own "Wild Weasels" units - radar hunters.

HARM guidance can be conducted in several ways and works even after the radar station is turned off, as the missile "remembers" the last location of the signal. The rocket can self-guide to the target, receive information from an onboard radiation warning station or the aircraft from which it was launched, and attack previously identified targets regardless of radar activity. Additionally, the high sensitivity of the sensors in the warhead allows targeting from the back and sides, not just the radar's front, which emits the most radiation. This is crucial as "Wild Weasels" cannot always strike from the most advantageous position.

Missile as a detector​

For now, Ukrainians do not have the appropriate equipment in their MiGs to detect enemy radars. However, Ukrainian and Western engineers have integrated with MiG-29MU2, installing an additional panel in the cockpit that allows coordinates to be set for strikes, enabling missiles to target in automatic mode.

They thus use the missile itself as a detector. The WGU-2 warhead can independently detect an operating radar and automatically direct itself toward it. The missile remembers its position and strikes even when the radar is turned off. The HARM's over 1,500 mph speed ensures the radar crew does not have time to change position before impact.

This allows Ukrainians to not only create a breach for cruise missiles to pass through but also send aviation back to support ground forces, which need it very much now.

Thanks to the elimination of more radar stations, Ukrainian assault aircraft have reappeared over the front, paralyzing Russian communication just behind the front lines. Additionally, the Russians have few remaining short and very short-range systems that directly protect key objects, hence the appearance of Buk systems near the front. However, these are slowly depleting. The losses suffered in the past month have surpassed production twice over.


Once again, despite significant limitations, Ukrainians have shown the Russians how to conduct an air war.
 
Return to War: British trained troops head back to the Ukrainian frontlines (Documentary)


Pretty interesting video of a Chinese mercenary in Ukraine fighting on the Russian side describes the horror of war. He mentions a multinational force w Chinese, Nepalese, Indians, Cubans, and Africans employed by the Russian army


🗞️ 1/2 Ukrainian State Bureau of Investigation (SBI) has opened an investigation into the Russian advance in Kharkiv Oblast. The case involves the command of 125th Territorial Defense Brigade, 172nd and 415th Rifle Battalions.
2/2 The proceedings were initiated under two articles of the Criminal Code: Part 4 of Article 425 and Article 429 - negligent attitude to military service, unauthorized leaving of the battlefield and refusal to use weapons.


The moment two Russian UMPB D-30 glide bombs hit the hardware store Epicenter in Kharkiv on a busy Saturday afternoon. Russia killed at least 2 civilians and wounded 24.

Russia continues to target and kill civilians in Ukraine.


Czechia’s Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský said that the Russian strike on the Epicentr hypermarket in Kharkiv on 25 May proves that Russian leader Vladimir Putin is not interested in peace.


The Italian government has objected to NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who urged the allies to lift restrictions on the use of weapons provided to Ukraine against targets in Russia.


Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said in an interview published on May 25 that the U.S. has told Russia that if it uses nuclear weapons, there will be an American response using conventional weapons on Russian forces in Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly made nuclear threats against Ukraine and the West since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in February 2022. The threats have failed to materialize, and Russia continues to wage its all-out war without its nuclear arsenal.

"The Americans have told the Russians that if you explode a nuke, even if it doesn't kill anybody, we will hit all your targets (positions) in Ukraine with conventional weapons, we'll destroy all of them," Sikorski told the Guardian.

Sikorski added that both China and India have warned Russia not to use nuclear weapons.

"And it's no child's play because if that taboo (of using nuclear weapons) were also to be breached, like the taboo of not changing borders by force, China knows that Japan and (South) Korea would go nuclear, and presumably they don't want that."


Indrek Kannik, head of the International Center for Defense and Security (ICDS), says the arrests of Russia's defense ministry and military leadership may be related to Vladimir Putin's fear of rebellion.

The arrests began last month with Russia's deputy defense minister, and now several other people from the Defense Ministry and the military have been arrested. All are accused of corruption.

However, according to Kannik, this is not the main reason for the changes. He believes that Russian leader Vladimir Putin is unhappy with the outcome of the war in Ukraine.

"Of course, we can't get inside Putin's head, so we can't say for sure, but dictators tend to become more and more paranoid as time goes on, and so it's a very real possibility that he does believe that there is a grouping within the military that is considering removing him from power and that this is perhaps a step to dissolve the military leadership and restore relations so that there can't even be a theoretical attempt at an uprising," he said.
 

The Russians are actively using sabotage and reconnaissance groups (SRGs) along the Russo-Ukrainian border. The SRGs are changing their tactics and exploiting the terrain in attempts to infiltrate deeper into Ukraine.

Source: Vadym Mysnyk, spokesperson for the Siversk Operational Strategic Group, on air during the national joint 24/7 newscast

Quote: "We observe the enemy’s active use of sabotage and reconnaissance groups.

They are changing their tactics, the number of groups, routes, and our terrain allows the SRGs to work, but our counter-sabotage measures enable us to detect them promptly.

We prevent them from infiltrating deep into our territory."


According to Western analysts, Ukraine cannot afford to neglect the peninsula. "Crimea was presented by [President] Volodymyr Zelensky as the strategic priority of 2024. The Ukrainians are obliged to remain active there, even if their concerns today lie more in the Donbas and the Kharkiv region," said Thibault Fouillet, scientific director of the Institute for Strategy and Defense Studies.

Ukrainian successes in the region, such as driving the Russian Black Sea fleet out of the port of Sevastopol, are also helping to counterbalance setbacks in the north and east, which is useful in bolstering morale among troops and the public.

While most of the fighting is taking place on the mainland, Crimea also remains an important logistical hub for supplying the Russian army on the southern front. Rail convoys continue to pass over the Kerch Bridge, even though damages to the structure in 2022 and 2023 have made it necessary to limit the tonnage transported. Numerous shuttles cross the Sea of Azov to the peninsula's east coast to supply Moscow's troops.
Striking at Russian logistics in the region therefore remains essential. "But this could change: the Russians are building new railroads and freeways around Mariupol to double the Crimean axis," said Stéphane Audrand, an international risk consultant.
By regularly striking Sevastopol, the Ukrainians are also preventing any Russian return to the western Black Sea, as their ships and submarines are obliged to stop much further east, at Feodosia or, more often, Novorossiysk. This is an essential condition for maintaining the grain corridor linking the port of Odesa to the Bosphorus Strait, unilaterally reopened by the Ukrainians in August 2023. According to London, Kyiv exported 45 million tons of goods through this corridor over the last nine months, including 30 million tons of grain. "All this will support the recovery of the Ukrainian economy in 2024," said the British Ministry of Defence, in a statement published on May 22.

For Western military experts, targeting Russian radar and anti-aircraft defenses in Crimea is ultimately intended to prepare for the arrival of Western fighter jets in Ukraine. Some 60 F-16s have been promised by Denmark, Norway, the Netherlands and Belgium, and the first units are expected in early summer. "The Russians are using their detection capabilities in Crimea to find out what's going on in western Ukraine. It is imperative to break these tools so that the Russians cannot see the F-16s arriving in real time, which would enable them to react," explained Audrand.

As for wasting ammunition in Crimea, a resource which would be more useful elsewhere on the front line, experts consider this risk to be limited. Long-range drones are not intended for use in combat zones, and the French-English SCALP-Storm Shadow or American ATACMS cruise missiles are more useful for "processing" strategic targets (communications centers, radar stations, etc.) than small units of fighters.
"Crimea is not diverting that many Ukrainian resources," said Fouillet. "And the effects achieved on the peninsula will be greater than in the Donbas, where freedom of aerial action is more limited."
 
Some political talk in this piece, which we will avoid. However, this part is relevant:

U.S. intelligence officials believe Putin is providing North Korea with nuclear submarine and ballistic missile technology in exchange for Pyongyang’s sending Russia large amount of munitions for its war in Ukraine, the senior U.S. officials said. North Korea provides Russia with more munitions than Europe provides to Ukraine, including millions of artillery shells.

Officials are also concerned that Russia might help North Korea complete the final steps needed to field its first submarine able to launch a nuclear-armed missile.


Russia has deployed electronic warfare systems around static targets such as headquarters and command centers that might be targets of Ukrainian precision weapons. The systems blast out so much interference that they drown out the GPS signal that guides the Excalibur’s targeting software, said Thomas Withington, an associate fellow at the London-based Royal United Services Institute and a specialist in electronic warfare.

Commanders of Ukrainian artillery units confirmed that the Excalibur shells had proved very accurate in hitting targets when first introduced in 2022, but later had been effectively neutralized by Russian jamming.
“We have some problems with accuracy,” said a commander of an artillery unit in the 45th Brigade operating in Donetsk region, who uses the call sign Musician, in accordance with Ukrainian military protocol.
The American M777 howitzers used by Musician’s crew were praised for their capabilities when they were first introduced into the Ukrainian theater in 2022. But Musician said his unit had stopped using Excalibur shells at the beginning of 2023 because of their ineffectiveness.
Instead, he said, they were firing unguided artillery shells, which are less accurate and require greater quantities of ammunition to take out a target.
Another commander, who for security reasons gave only his first name, Oleh, said that he had sometimes received supplies of other weaponry, including laser-guided projectiles, which are less affected by Russia’s jamming of GPS signals.
It is not unusual for weapons systems to lose effectiveness during intense warfare, as determined opponents find new ways to counter them.

The most effective countermeasure to combat jamming of the GPS signal is simply to eliminate the source of the interference, military analysts said. Ukrainian forces have concentrated on knocking out fixed Russian radars and other jamming equipment, in particular in the Crimean Peninsula, which has then allowed them to hit targets like command posts and supply depots deep behind enemy lines, Mr. Withington said.
At closer range, both the Russian and Ukrainian armies employ mobile electronic jammers to deflect explosive drones, which use GPS to home in on their targets.
But Russian jamming is not impenetrable, said Michael Bohnert, an engineer at RAND who specialized in electronic warfare in the U.S. Navy. Countermeasures can include simple techniques, like changing the timing and the place from which the munitions are launched. Guidance systems that rely on lasers or maps of the terrain avoid the problem of jamming GPS. Western suppliers have also developed software patches for some projectiles to improve resistance.
“You can always find a way to get something through,” Mr. Bohnert said.
He noted that the Excalibur was designed in the 1990s, when GPS was in its infancy and electronic warfare technology was not nearly as sophisticated as it is now. “Those older ones fundamentally have difficulties,” he said. “Better weapons should have been given earlier.”

Daniel Patt, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, a Washington-based research organization, warned that the experience with the Excalibur in Ukraine was an example of how superior weapons systems can be handicapped by a lack of software adaptability and urged the Department of Defense to foster a culture of innovation and agility to be able to adapt quickly.
“The life cycle of a radio in Ukraine is only about three months before it needs to be reprogrammed or swapped out as the Russians optimize their electronic warfare against it,” Mr. Patt wrote in his testimony. “The peak efficiency of a new weapon system is only about two weeks before countermeasures emerge.”
 

Ukrainian civil society is teeming with activists carrying weapons, equipment, food and medicine to soldiers on the front line. A reserve officer and radio transmission expert, Serhiy Beskrestnik, 49, has found a unique and solitary mission: preaching electronic hygiene.
Via his Telegram channel which counts 81,000 subscribers, "Flash" (his nom de guerre) tirelessly dispenses advice: How to escape Russian drone surveillance and the strikes that follow; how to protect sensitive communications and how to decipher the code; how to protect sensitive communications and decrypt those of the enemy; to jam enemy drones without jamming your own. He is raising awareness of the rapid evolution of electronic warfare. His target audience is broad: from the high command to the soldier in the trenches, from civilians close to the front to industrialists working behind the scenes.
The clock is ticking. The Russian army is making rapid progress, both in industrial production and in the tactical integration of electronic warfare systems. The Zala, Supercam and Orlan reconnaissance drones are constantly circling the skies, casting their cameras over a 70-kilometer-deep strip behind the Ukrainian front, day and night. "They watch all military vehicles. Once spotted, they are tracked to their unit or parking position, where they are struck," said the jovial, bearded engineer in military garb, who worked for the French group Sagem (now Safran) in the early 2000s.
The time between detection and strike is sometimes very short, less than 10 minutes. Hence Beskrestnik's advice: "Near the front, military equipment must be systematically camouflaged under greenery or buildings. Avoid busy service stations, which are systematically monitored. Avoid parking for more than 10 minutes in an open area, and always keep a distance of more than 50 meters between vehicles."

The Russian Lancet kamikaze drone, which works in tandem with the Zala reconnaissance drone, can strike moving targets, like that BM-21 rocket-launching truck destroyed while driving on a road north of Kharkiv on May 15.

The real shock was the destruction of two launchers of the US Patriot anti-aircraft system in early March near Pokrovsk, in the Donbas region. The extremely expensive system, crucial for keeping Russian bombers at bay, was spotted by a Supercam drone and immediately destroyed by an Iskander ballistic missile strike while parked in the open alongside a road. It had shot down several enemy bombers in the preceding weeks, which is why Russian drones were hunting it down with every last bit of resolve.
A series of incidents followed, including the destruction of helicopters and Himars rocket launchers on the ground. Anti-aircraft defenses have yet to come up with an answer to this swarm, apart from a handful of Stormer HVM systems donated by the United Kingdom. The anti-aircraft systems close to the front are of Soviet design. They detect the heat engine of the Orlan drone, but not (or poorly) the electric motors of the Zala and Supercam drones.
The Ukrainian military is now racing to obtain a box the size of three cigarette packs that can analyze radio frequencies. Dubbed "Tsukorok" ("little sugar"), the device signals the presence within a 20-kilometer radius of the three reconnaissance drones used by the Russian army. A small display shows the drone's model in three letters, and the rate of the beep indicates whether it is moving closer or farther away. But the unit is produced in a trickle, so "Flash" has written and distributed a manual explaining how to assemble one yourself from off-the-shelf electronic components.

Recently, Russia's highly destructive guided glide bombs (GGBs) were fitted with jamming antennas capable of countering at first four, then eight Ukrainian jammers simultaneously. Jamming here consists in spoofing the satellite navigation coordinates used by the BPGs, in order to make them crash far from their target. "We recover these antennas and attach them to our drones, which then strike the Russian oil refineries. Back to sender," said the reserve officer, amused.
To counter Russian missile attacks in depth all over its territory, air defense engineers have designed a system called "Pokrova" ("cover") consisting of a dense network of antennas capable of usurping the satellite navigation coordinates guiding the projectiles. The latter are lured to predefined zones where they are shot down by anti-aircraft defenses. "As a result, the Russians began to favor missiles using other guidance systems, which are autonomous and impossible to jam," sighed the expert.

Ukraine has only 25% of the air defense capabilities it needs to effectively repel Russian attacks, said President Volodymyr Zelensky in an interview with Agence France-Presse on May 17.
But combat drones (kamikazes or bombers) are now the deadliest weapon on the front line. Inexpensive, effective and widely used on both sides of the front, they are difficult to destroy. The main countermeasure is to jam the video signal between the aircraft and its pilot, hidden a few kilometers behind the lines. But electronic jammers are expensive and vulnerable. "Our Ukrainian manufacturers are not interested in producing cheap systems for use at the front, because their margins are very low," said Beskrestnik.


Military personnel from several brigades deployed on the front confirmed to Le Monde that, due to their high cost and vulnerability, there are not enough jammers to protect infantry in the trenches or combat vehicles. To complicate matters, the protagonists are constantly changing the range of frequencies used by the drone and the jammer. "There's no such thing as a total jammer, just as there's no such thing as a signal that can't be jammed. The Russians have powerful jammers, they change the frequencies, but we also change ours – it's a never-ending race!" said Taras Tsushko, deputy commander of the 28th brigade's drone unit.
Jamming also creates an additional problem, as it affects both friendly and enemy drones. "In the absence of coordination in the management of electronic warfare systems, everyone turns on their jammer whenever they want, causing the loss of drones on their own side. But we need to inform the soldiers in the trenches that their brigade has radio direction finders [devices for locating a drone by analyzing the signals emitted] which track all enemy drones in real-time," said "Flash." Electronic intelligence goes much further, capturing enemy transmissions. By way of demonstration on his smartphone screen, divided into eight frames, the expert showed images transmitted in real-time by the cameras of eight Russian kamikaze drones.

The speed of developments on the battlefield leaves Western armies largely unprepared, said Beskrestnik: "The West can't help us. They have no idea what electronic warfare is like in the trenches. You can see this from the completely outdated training they give our soldiers. What's more, their equipment is far too expensive and ill-adapted."
 

A large number of Russian experts have entered North Korea to support its spy satellite launch efforts, and Pyongyang has staged more engine tests than expected to likely meet their "high" standards, a senior South Korean defense official said Sunday.

The official said many Russian technicians have entered North Korea after Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged to support the North's satellite program last year, and they likely have "high" standards, prompting the delay.

"North Korea might have been brave enough to stage launches when it didn't know much, but the (Russian) experts likely told them not to," the official said.


Russian Ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov categorically rejected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's legitimacy and outlined Russia's maximalist conditions for peace negotiations during an interview with @Newsweek on May 25. (1/3)
2/ Antonov insinuated that Russia would reject any peace agreement predicated on the retreat or withdrawal of Russian forces from any part of occupied Ukraine, likely including recently occupied areas of Kharkiv Oblast.
3/ Official Russian statements continue to support ISW's assessment that Putin remains uninterested in meaningful negotiations and any peace agreement that would prevent him from pursuing the destruction of an independent Ukrainian state and the subjugation of the Ukrainian people.


Sweden has authorized Ukraine to use Swedish-delivered weapon systems against targets in Russia.

"Ukraine may use Swedish weapons against targets in Russia. It is a welcome announcement from the Minister of Defense."

Sweden delivered a range of weapon systems to Ukraine, among them at least eight Archer FH77BW SPHs. The Archers receives the highest praises from Ukrainian artillery soldiers, calling it a sniper artillery.


First images of a Ukrainian MiG-29 Fulcrum operationally flying with US-supplied and integrated GBU-39 SDB precision glide bombs.

Appears to be carrying four SDBs, under a pair of underwing BRU-61 carriages.

Short video here of a Ukrainian ground drone: https://x.com/front_ukrainian/status/1794439801803837738
 

The research on artillery rounds by Bain & Company, which drew on publicly available information, found that Russian factories were forecast to manufacture or refurbish about 4.5 million artillery shells this year compared with a combined production of about 1.3 million rounds across European nations and the US.

On cost, it said the average production cost per 155 mm shell - the type produced by NATO countries - was about $4,000 (£3,160) per unit, though it varied significantly between countries. This is compared with a reported Russian production cost of around $1,000 (£790) per 152 mm shell that the Russian armed forces use.


Artillery is only one of many munition shortfalls faced by Ukraine.

Sky News visited a group of new recruits in the east of the country who were learning how to use an N-LAW anti-tank missile, first provided to the Ukrainian military by the UK.

They said a shortage of supplies means they just pretend to fire the weapon in training and would only use it for real when in battle - and only then when there are any stocks.

"We have a lack of N-LAWs and we need more," said a soldier with the callsign "Bolt", who was giving the training to the new soldiers in a reconnaissance battalion of 5th Brigade.

Asked whether he had a message for the factory workers in the UK who assembled the weapon, Bolt said: "We'd like to thank our Western partners for their help. But, if possible, we would be very grateful if they could provide more NATO munitions."

Philip McBride, the managing director of Thales Belfast, said N-LAW production capacity had doubled since the start of the year and there was scope to double it again.

Asked why the expansion only began then, when Russia's full-scale war erupted in February 2022, he explained it was because of a number of factors.

Firstly, the UK Ministry of Defence supplies Ukraine with N-LAWs, rather than Thales directly. The missiles initially given to the Ukrainian military were those that the British armed forces already had in their own stockpiles.

"They've granted that and then they go through their own procurement process, agree what their actual requirement is in the UK… and once they've decided that, then they'll place orders allowing us to ramp up," Mr McBride said.

Another factor is that it can take up to two years to source the parts that are required for the N-LAW.

However, asked if production at the factory would have been expanded sooner had the Ministry of Defence put in orders earlier, the managing director said: "The earlier an order comes, the sooner we can ramp up production."
 

Russia is forming another grouping of troops near Ukraine's northern border amid the ongoing offensive in Kharkiv Oblast, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video address to the world leaders on May 26.


Russia does not have enough troops for a major attack in Sumy Oblast but may still attempt to invade the region, State Border Guard Service spokesperson Andriy Demchenko said on television on May 26.

Demchenko said that he does not see a Russian “group that could achieve strategic goals” near Sumy Oblast despite a buildup of troops. But he stressed that Ukraine must “be prepared for any action.”

Meanwhile, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on May 26 that "Russia is preparing for offensive actions also 90 kilometers northwest – they gather another group of troops near our border."


German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is against Ukraine using Western weapons to target Russian territory, the German public-service broadcaster ARD reported on May 26.
 

A drone of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine struck a Russian radar 1800 km from the border
A source in the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry told Schemes (Radio Liberty) that on the night of May 27, the Russian Voronezh-M radar station in the Orenburg region of the Russian Federation was attacked by the agency's drones.
@planet satellite recorded the aftermath of the attack by the GUR drones. The image from May 27 shows that dark spots appeared on the radar site that were not there before - probably traces of a fire caused by a UAV hit.
The resolution, however, does not allow us to assess the extent of possible damage to the Russian station. The look on 26th of May.
This radar station is located more than 1800 km from the border with Ukraine. According to open sources, Voronezh-M is part of Russia's long-range stationary over-the-horizon radars. They are designed to detect space and aerodynamic objects, such as ballistic and cruise missiles

Spain to send Patriot missiles, Leopard tanks to Ukraine in $1.23 billion package

Spain plans to send Patriot missiles and Leopard tanks to Ukraine as part of a 1.13 billion euro ($1.23 billion) weapon package announced last month, El Pais newspaper reported on Monday, citing unidentified sources close to the operation.
Spain will hand over a dozen crucial Patriot anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine and 19 second-hand German-made Leopard 2A4 tanks and other Spanish-made weapons, such as anti-drones gear and ammunition, the newspaper said.


Russia suffers around 24,000 soldiers killed or seriously injured per month during its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said, as reported by n-tv on May 26.


DeepState analysts have noted that the Russians have advanced near several settlements in Donetsk Oblast, including Chasiv Yar, and have occupied the village of Netailove.


In the village of Lyptsi, Ukrainian forces appear to have blunted Russia’s surprise offensive.
A few weeks ago, they were rapidly advancing towards Kharkiv. But with the help of reinforcements Ukraine is slowly stemming the tide.
The threat from the north though has not gone away. Lyptsi is still a target.
There’s the heavy thud of shells landing nearby as we drive at speed through its ruined and deserted streets with an elite Ukrainian unit.
Two of the team point shotguns out of the window. They scan the sky for kamikaze drones. They’ve become one of the most potent weapons of this war.
This Ukrainian unit are about to use them too. They call themselves the Peaky Blinders, after the cult TV series.
Oleksandr, their leader, says at the outbreak of the war they turned up to guard their streets with shotguns, wearing civilian clothing. He says it was like a scene from the hit show.
But they’re no longer a rag-tag team of volunteers. They’re now battle-hardened and have been trained by Western special forces. They’re now the high-tech Peaky Blinders, using cheap, mass-produced small drones.
Nevertheless, they’ve kept the name and wear flat caps in camouflage, with their motto embroidered on the back - “To Find and Destroy”.
Over the past few weeks Oleksandr has literally been fighting for his home.
He used to farm the fields nearby their dug-out – hidden in a tree line. Before the war, he grew strawberries here. But now he’s planting bombs.
Since the offensive began, the Peaky Blinders team say they have killed or injured more than 100 Russian soldiers.
They operate like a small air force with dozens of drones and an arsenal of bombs – ones to take out tanks, others to target groups of infantry or individual soldiers.
They either drop the bombs or use kamikaze drones which they fly directly into a target. They’re also known as First Person View, or FPV drones.
On the day we visit they’re struggling to find new targets.
It's evidence they’re having some success. The Russians are hiding.
To fill the time, they use one of their larger drones to disarm troops they’ve already killed. Fitted with a grappling hook, they eventually manage to snatch an assault rifle beside a dead Russian soldier.
They’re not just killing, but taking weapons too.
Drones have transformed this war to a point.
But Anton, Oleksandr’s older brother, knows they’re not enough to defeat the Russians.
“We can hold them back with drones and hurt them,” he says, “but not, unfortunately, to win with them”.
He says longer-range weapons targeting the build-up of Russian forces over the border “could have prevented this offensive."
The Russians too, like them, have worked out ways to jam their signals using electronic warfare.
When the Peaky Blinders eventually do find a new target, their signal gets blocked before they can go in for the kill. They can lose four or five drones in a day.
Despite the setbacks, Oleksandr says the Kharkiv offensive has given his tired men a second wind. Before, they feared the world was losing interest. But he knows that’s still a danger, with no end in sight.
He says he expects the conflict to last a very long time “maybe for several years or even decades”. Neither side, he says, has the strength to deliver a knockout blow. To push the Russian’s back to their border he says Ukraine will need “colossal” Western support.


But for now, this latest Russian offensive is being thwarted.
Oleh Syniehubov – head of Kharkiv’s military administration – believes the original plan was to go all the way to the city of Kharkiv. He told the BBC that recently captured Russian soldiers had revealed their goal was to take the town of Vovchansk in two days, and to reach Kharkiv city within five days.
President Putin has denied that taking the city was part of his plan.
Governor Syniehubov believes that eventually the Russians can be pushed back to the border – just as they were in 2022. But he adds “Liberating the territory is only half the battle. The other half is to keep it."

A senior Ukrainian defence official told the BBC that the latest US military aid package will only be enough for it to continue defensive operations until the end of this year.
In other words, not enough to launch a more costly and difficult offensive to try to take back territory.
 

The assassin was already in position when he was informed of his target.
It was May 4, five days before Russia was set to celebrate its national victory day holiday, when he set up a drone control centre in a basement in the Kyiv region. Only once he was in position did his handler tell him his target.
“When you see a convoy with a black Toyota Land Cruiser and a black minibus arrive — communicate their co-ordinates,” his orders read.
The description matched the cavalcade of Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, the aggressive young commander of Ukraine’s military intelligence, HUR, who has overseen hits on senior Russian commanders, propagandists and collaborators both inside Russia and in occupied Ukrainian territory. The plan was to assassinate him in a co-ordinated missile and drone attack.
“The Russians planned to launch a ballistic missile at those co-ordinates while the drone operator was in his shelter, after that he had to launch his drone, film the aftermath of the attack for his handlers, and ram his drone with the rocket-propelled grenade into anyone who survived or came to help,” a top Ukrainian counterintelligence officer said in an exclusive interview, outlining for the first time details of the plot and how they foiled it.

Speaking on the condition of anonymity from deep within a Soviet-era neoclassical building once home to the KGB, the senior member of Ukraine’s state security service, the SBU, laid out how President Putin’s spies had infiltrated the upper echelons of President Zelensky’s security detail in an attempt to decapitate Kyiv’s leadership.
Twenty minutes later, the Russians would strike with a second ballistic missile in a “double-tap” attack designed to kill emergency services and conceal evidence of the FPV drone attack, he added.
But for months the SBU had been watching the architects of the assassination plan: two colonels in the state protection department tasked with protecting top Ukrainian officials including the president.
They had also been watching a third man they suspected of working for their Russian counterpart, the Federal Security Service (FSB): the unnamed assassin.
They knew the trio were plotting to kill Budanov and that they were tracking Lieutenant General Vasyl Maliuk, the head of the SBU, as well as Zelensky himself, the officer revealed.

The suspects had brought rocket-propelled grenades, a MON-90 antipersonnel mine and first-person view suicide drones to Kyiv in the build-up to the assassination attempt, he said.
The first suspect, identified by a law enforcement source as Colonel Andrey Huk, is accused of working for the FSB since 2014. He is alleged to have recruited the second man, Colonel Oleksandr Derkach, and relayed FSB orders to the group.

The communications between the assassin and his handlers were intercepted by the SBU using powerful surveillance technology. Maliuk immediately informed Budanov. An armed response team pounced on the assassin and the SBU prepared a rapid operation to sweep up his alleged co-conspirators.
“Our goal was to perform a simultaneous arrest so that they cannot inform each other, so they don’t escape,” the officer said.
One colonel was at home at his Kyiv apartment and the other was visiting friends in the Sumy region in northeast Ukraine. Both were armed. To avoid a dangerous gunfight, the SBU lured them from their respective buildings by arranging for them to be called into work unexpectedly.

A quick response special operations force, dressed as ordinary patrol police, took over checkpoints on the men’s route. In wartime Ukraine, checkpoints are commonplace and a stop there would not necessarily arouse suspicion.
Ahead of each man’s vehicle, the SBU officers made a show of searching every civilian car thoroughly to emphasise the stop was routine.
The first man was arrested with relative ease. The second did not park, kept his car in drive, lowered his window and showed his official identification card.
“We chose a big, physically fit guy, dressed in a police uniform to make the arrest. He pretended he couldn’t see the ID and moved closer to the car,” the officer said.
“Then with one hand, he reached through the window and opened the door, with the other arm he grabbed the guy’s head. Because the car was in drive, it immediately started moving. It was extremely important to suppress him immediately because he had weapons in the car.”

Other SBU officers piled in to stop the car and drag the man from his vehicle, completing the arrest, while armed teams raided the men’s apartments. There they found the explosives and drone components concealed inside spare tyres and a pile of wood, as well as a stash with a secret telephone, the counterintelligence official said.
Both men are said to have confessed during interrogation. The burner phone included communications identifying vehicles and routes used by Zelensky and Maliuk, perhaps in anticipation of striking them in a similar way, as well as communications about their movements.

Once under arrest, the colonels also gave up new information about an earlier Russian attempt to take Zelensky hostage at the very beginning of the war, the officer said.
“In February 2022 the number one agent was given a task to identify other state protection officers loyal to Russia and kill those loyal to Ukraine in order to take the president hostage,” he said. “They were to force Zelensky to make a video statement capitulating and saying there was no reason to fight — or he would be killed.”
During the chaotic first days of the invasion, the first colonel had gone so far as to gather other presidential bodyguards and suggest they lay down their weapons when the Russians came, he added.

“He told them: ‘We are not the armed forces, we don’t have a particular task to defend Ukraine and I’m not paid enough to organise Brest Fortress here’,” the officer said. The 1941 defence of Brest Fortress by the Red Army against a surprise attack by the Nazis led to the death of more than 2,000 Soviet Union soldiers, with the remaining garrison of 7,000 captured.
At the time, his fellow protection detail officers had dismissed his comments as an emotional response to the invasion and ignored them, the SBU official said. As he was a senior officer, they had not challenged him. After his arrest, when they realised he was acting under orders from the FSB, they were shocked.
Huk’s family, who had fled to Europe and are strongly pro-Ukrainian, were devastated by his arrest. “He was lying to all of them. His wife thought her husband was defending his country, his children thought their father was a Ukrainian hero,” the officer added.
He had, however, been born in Russia, providing a possible explanation for his alleged betrayal. In a video of his interrogations published by the SBU, he said he had received $3,000 a month from the Russian FSB, with an additional $1,000 to make trips to fulfil their orders. Much of this was paid to him and his family during visits to Europe, it is alleged.
The second officer, Derkach, had taken part simply for the money and had hoped the more senior Huk would help his career prospects, the SBU officer said.
Zelenksy’s adviser, Mykhailo Podolyak, has said that there have been “a dozen” plots against the president’s life. However, the infiltration of his protection detail appears to be the FSB’s most advanced effort. The attempt to kill Budanov demonstrates an aggressive shift in the agency’s role in the war against Ukraine and its allies, from intelligence gathering to sabotage and assassinations, a role once dominated by the Russian military intelligence service, the GRU.
Recent attacks in the UK and Europe on western weapons supplies to Ukraine using arson and explosives have been blamed on Russian agents and last week the head of the British intelligence agency GCHQ, Anne Keast-Butler, said she was “increasingly concerned” at links between Russian intelligence services and cybercriminals targeting key UK services.

The architect of the FSB’s aggressive new strategy is believed to be the agency’s deputy director, Sergei Korolev, a Putin favourite who is reported to have deep ties to the Russian mafia. A dossier on him provided to The Times by Ukraine’s military intelligence branch, HUR, describes him as “Putin’s wolfhound”, an attack dog tasked with collecting information on other members of the Russian government and removing potential rivals the Russian leader wants dismissed by legal means. The dossier also states that he is an enigmatic character, born in Kyrgyzstan and thought to be about 60 years old, who prefers to work in the shadows.
HUR accuse him of orchestrating the latest plot as a present for Putin before the planned victory day celebrations on May 9. The SBU said the assassination attempt was approved and co-ordinated personally by the FSB’s director, Alexander Bortnikov.
“They have moved from trying to recruit intelligence agents to preparing terror attacks, sabotage and assassinations, trying to create a pro-Russian resistance movement,” said the counterintelligence officer, noting that the SBU had already unmasked some 2,500 Russian agents in Ukraine.
“In fact, there is no pro-Russian movement in today’s Ukraine. The Russian intelligence services are very powerful, but so far the SBU is outplaying them.”
 

U.S. and allied intelligence officials are tracking an increase in low-level sabotage operations in Europe that they say are part of a Russian campaign to undermine support for Ukraine’s war effort.
The covert operations have mostly been arsons or attempted arsons targeting a wide range of sites, including a warehouse in England, a paint factory in Poland, homes in Latvia and, most oddly, an Ikea store in Lithuania.
But people accused of being Russian operatives have also been arrested on charges of plotting attacks on U.S. military bases.
While the acts might appear random, American and European security officials say they are part of a concerted effort by Russia to slow arms transfers to Kyiv and create the appearance of growing European opposition to support for Ukraine. And the officials say Russia’s military intelligence arm, the G.R.U., is leading the campaign.
The attacks, at least so far, have not interrupted the weapons flow to Ukraine, and indeed many of the targets are not directly related to the war. But some security officials say Russia is trying to sow fear and force European nations to add security throughout the weapons supply chain, adding costs and slowing the pace of transfers.

Ukraine Finds the Patriotism of Older Soldiers May Not Be Enough to Win

Front-line soldiers interviewed by Bloomberg said the aid package approved by US Congress last month has started to ease pressure on equipment, which had been heavily rationed so long as the bill’s passage remained uncertain. Yet, despite a new mobilization law lowering the age of the draft, manpower remains a problem.
“Most of the people I talk to are about 40-45 years old,” said Pavlo Narozhnyi, who raises funds for artillerymen, adding that “younger people — especially younger than 30 — are relatively rare.” A senior military official speaking on condition of anonymity echoed that assessment, citing an average fighting age of 43-45.


The Russian attempt to open a new front towards Kharkiv backfired due to the insufficient number of troops committed.

The reopening of the front towards Kharkiv by Russia may have initially taken the Ukrainians by surprise, but the initial wave of assault has now been stemmed, security expert and reservist Major General Neeme Väli has said.

However, the arrival of reinforcements likely indicates the start of a second wave of assaults in the vicinity, he added.

Reserves have been brought in, counterattacks launched in some sectors, while, in one locale, Russian forces have reportedly been pushed back to the sovereign borders, Väli said.

Appearing on ETV show "Ukraina stuudio," Väli said: "That Ukrainian forces were not fully prepared for the Russian incursion into the Kharkiv region was somewhat surprising."

"I believe one reason for this was that, whilst a concentration of Russian forces near the border was observed, the assumption was that the force was not large enough to initiate any attack," he went on.

"That miscalculation has also cost the Russians, as they have now run out of resources, so to continue the offensive, they will need to bring in fresh troops. Statements have it that they aim to increase their numbers to 50,000 or even 70,000 men," Väli added.

Väli said that Russian down time, taken in order to regroup, will provide the Ukrainians with the breathing space to bring in their own reserves and to make use of the latest western military aid that is starting to trickle in.

"A second wave of assaults by Russian forces is likely, but it is not out of the quest that that will coincide with the peace conference in Switzerland," Väli added.

In any case, Russian forces have not yet reached Kharkiv close enough to be able to bombard the city, peacetime population of 1.4 million, with tube artillery.

They need to advance at least 25 kilometers closer to the city than they currently are, to do so, Väli said.

"This would be the range at which the Russians could utilize their firepower more broadly towards the city," he added.

Until any reserves arrive, the Russians are consolidating the buffer zone around Belgorod, meaning no active advance towards Kharkiv is expected, Väli concluded.
 

Belgium will supply Ukraine with 30 F-16 fighter jets by 2028, Belgian Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib told the Belgian broadcaster RTL on May 28.

First of these planes should arrive already "by the end of the year," she added.

The announcement accompanies news that President Volodymyr Zelensky will visit Belgium on May 28 to sign a bilateral security agreement.

Lahbib said that the agreement on F-16 fighter jets will be signed on May 28 in Brussels.


Belgium is going to supply Ukraine with another 30 F-16 fighter jets. The first planes will be delivered by the end of this year. The security agreement has been signed between Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Previously, the Netherlands, Denmark and Norway committed F-16s to Ukraine. With the Belgian commitment, this number climbs to 85 F-16 fighter jets.

Source (French): https://rtl.be/actu/monde/internati...raison-des-premiers/2024-05-28/article/673340


All weapons that Belgium will supply to Ukraine can be used only on Ukrainian territory - Belgian prime minister Alexander De Croo


The Netherlands wants to deliver an additional Patriot air defense system to Ukraine in the short term in cooperation with other countries, the Dutch Defense Ministry said on May 28.

The country has identified which partners could contribute parts and ammunition from their own stocks and called on them to join the initiative.


Poland should not rule out sending its troops to Ukraine, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said in an interview with the newspaper Gazeta Wyborcza published on May 28.
 

Serial numbers seen on two Russian UMPB D-30SN glide bombs. The first was seen on March 28, and the second was reportedly used in the May 25 Epicenter strike. The serial numbers probably indicate Russia made at least 691 of these bombs between those two dates, with the second bomb produced in May 2024.


Factory markings indicate that Russia has averaged production of at least 12 UMPB glide bombs per day over the past two months.

This gives an annualized production volume of at least ~4,400 rounds, which is likely to rise as Russia continues to scale capacity.


First time seeing a Ukraine-operated M1A1 Abrams tank with a "cope cage".

The vehicle is also equipped with added slat armor on the turret and Kontakt-1 ERA on the frontal hull, as well as its standard ARAT ERA on the sides.


Following a video call with France’s defense minister, Ukraine’s top general said he is “pleased to welcome France's initiative to send instructors to Ukraine to train Ukrainian servicemen,” and he has “already signed the documents that will enable the first French instructors to visit our training centres shortly and familiarize themselves with their infrastructure and personnel.”

In a statement to Reuters, France’s Defence Ministry noted that “training on Ukrainian soil is one of the projects discussed since the conference on support for Ukraine convened by the President of the Republic on February 26,” and “this track continues to be the subject of work with the Ukrainians, in particular to understand their exact needs.”

The Ukrainian MoD clarified that discussions are ongoing regarding potential training by foreign instructors on Ukrainian soil but the Ukrainian MoD and General Staff have begun internal paperwork to expedite the process in the event it moves forward.



A video reportedly showing the launches of US-supplied MGM-140 ATCAMS missiles from Ukraine-operated M142 HIMARS/M270 MLRS at the former Higher Military Aviation School of Navigators in Russia-controlled city of Luhansk, eastern Ukraine, earlier this evening.

Results below.


Footage reportedly showing the fiery aftermath of this evening's Ukrainian ATACMS strike on Luhansk Airfield.

At least one major brush fire was ignited after the attack.
 

The Russian armoured column roaring towards his lines would be his men’s greatest challenge, the Ukrainian commander thought.
Major Ruslan Habinet’s 5th Separate Assault Brigade had already seen off President Putin’s last big push to seize the town of Chasiv Yar, denying him a symbolic win before Russia’s May 9 Victory Day celebrations. But it had come at great cost. After more than two years’ fighting, his brigade had lost 40 per cent of its original strength.
As Ukrainian reserves and newly released supplies of western artillery shells were being rushed north to counter Moscow’s new offensive in the Kharkiv region, on May 18 the brigade’s drones detected 20 Russian tanks, armoured personnel carriers and troop transports bearing down on their positions.
“Most of that new US aid is going to the Kharkiv direction,” said the major, 30, who commands the brigade’s tanks and artillery. The boom and crash of incoming artillery rounds spoke to the Russian advance at his command centre in the town of Kostyantynivka, seven miles from the front.
Starved of the ammunition and decimated by casualties, sickness and desertion, the Fifth Brigade is a shadow of the fighting force that had once helped hold the neighbouring city of Bakhmut.
“The enemy sees the shortage, understands it and takes advantage of it, stretching our reserves, dispersing our firepower. I want to be honest with you: often we simply do not have the ammunition to stop them,” he said.
Falling back was not an option. Despite its larger size, the battle for Bakhmut, which is nestled in a bowl of lowland, had been of symbolic rather than strategic importance. By contrast, the fight for Chasiv Yar is key.
The Siversky-Donets canal forms a natural barrier facing east, backed by heights from which to fire down on to Russians advancing towards any of its three bridges. The road into it is flanked by forest where the Ukrainians can conceal their positions.
Should the town fall, the Ukrainians will have to defend Kostyantynivka, a critical road and rail junction, along mostly flat land. Ukrainians holding the line south of the brigade at the town of Toretsk would face encirclement, as Russian troops are already moving forward to their west, at the village of Ocheretyne. From Kostyantynivka, the Russians could sweep north to Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, the last significant Ukrainian-held cities in Donbas.
That makes the largely abandoned Chasiv Yar, which had a prewar population of 12,756, a vital waypoint for President Putin to complete his capture of the coveted Donbas region. And the Russian column, headed for a suburb on the town’s outskirts, was clearly a serious threat. The major held back until the vehicles were in range of all his weapons, then gave the command to expend more of his dwindling supply of shells.

Senior Lieutenant Oleksiy Tarasenko, 28, is deputy commander of the brigade’s second infantry battalion, a position usually reserved for the rank of major. His hasty wartime promotion speaks of dire losses among an already small professional officer cadre frequently targeted by Russian drones and snipers.
The brigade started off as an elite volunteer unit but is now 90 per cent mobilised men, although after two years of war, several are now experienced enough to provide the brigade’s backbone of non-commissioned officers. Mobilised or not, all of his men were heroes, Tarasenko said.

“It is not glorious like in the movies; this is our everyday work. When an officer hits a tank with a grenade launcher, or a soldier kills ten Russians with his rifle, this is just a routine act,” said the lieutenant.

The brigade has sought to address its manpower problems by trialling new technology with some success. The semi-autonomous “Shablya” machinegun platform allows a soldier to operate it remotely from cover, apart from when it needs fresh ammunition or a change of batteries.
“I saw a very successful use of a Shablya with a large-calibre Browning gun, when very accurate fire was carried out at more than 2,000 metres, and a group of infantry was wounded or killed when approaching our firing positions,” Tarasenko said. The guns were a good idea, but came with drawbacks.
“Even if they have relatively minor problems — say a circuit board burns out or a tiny piece of shrapnel damages its mechanism, you cannot use them effectively for days or even weeks,” said Tarasenko. “No one sends us trained operators or engineers, only the robot, and we have to choose people to deal with it. Within five days, a person needs to deal with a robotic platform they have just seen for the first time in their life.”

Lieutenant Serhiy Kraynyak, a former farmer, now commands a platoon of the brigade’s robotised systems, and is enthusiastic about getting more.
“It’s very good — like a big Game Boy. If we had this when we were defending Bakhmut it would have been ideal to place three or four in different sectors in high-rise buildings, operated from the basement, and control a sector completely,” Kraynyak said, patting his robot weapon.
His platoon also uses remote-controlled robots to evacuate the wounded and relay food and ammunition, saving precious lives. Yet even with robots, his platoon is significantly under strength, having just nine operators from what should be a complement of 26.
 

Emmanuel Grynszpan, a journalist with Le Monde's international desk, spent two weeks in Ukraine with photographer Laurent Van der Stockt. They went to the Donbas, more precisely the Donetsk region; first to Pokrovsk and the surrounding area, then to Kramatorsk and its vicinity. They headed for Kharkiv as soon as they learned that a new front had been opened by the Russians, on May 10. Then, on May 11, they moved on to Vovchansk, a town almost on the Russian border, which has been heavily shelled and is now partially occupied by the Russians. The Russian army had already occupied this town for six months in 2022. Upon his return from Ukraine, Grynszpan answered reader questions in an online chat with Le Monde on Friday, May 24. Here is a summary of his responses:

Worried: From Paris, it seems like the Ukrainian resistance is collapsing in the face of the Russian offensive. As someone who has been there, can you tell us if it's really that bad for Ukraine?
There's no collapse on the Ukrainian side, but daily Russian attacks on a front stretching over 500 kilometers. In some places, the Russians are advancing but without making any breakthroughs and without really being able to upset the Ukrainian army, which is withdrawing and sometimes attempting counterattacks. The Russians have undoubtedly had the advantage for several months, thanks to their substantial numerical advantage, both in technical and human terms.

Michel: On the front, can you see that weapons and ammunition are starting to arrive in significant quantities?
I noticed the opposite, namely, general complaints about the lack of artillery, missiles and anti-aircraft defenses. After constantly referring to this problem, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky did an about-face on May 16, declaring, "No brigade is complaining about lack of ammunition."

Once again, that's not what I heard. But, of course, I haven't spoken to all the brigades. I've since heard that one mechanized brigade received tank shells. Open-source experts still observe a fire ratio (the number of shells fired by the Russians compared to the Ukrainians) extremely unfavorable to the latter (from 8/1 to 15/1). As such, I conclude that Zelensky's statements do not correspond to the reality on the ground.

Colonel Sanders: There's been a lot of talk about Ukrainian soldiers being trained by Westerners, particularly abroad, in preparation for the big offensive in the summer of 2023. Have these soldiers been sent to the front or are they being kept in reserve for the next big offensive?
I don't think the Ukrainians have any significant reserves of foreign-trained soldiers. I've met many fighters who have completed training courses in North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries, and the response is almost unanimous: NATO trainers "train for yesterday's war, not the one we're fighting." They're generally disappointed because these tactical training courses take no account whatsoever of the central factor: drones. Reconnaissance drones, FPV (suicide) drones, attack drones, which completely change the game in assaults, defense, refueling, movement and evacuation. Only one officer told me that his training had helped him in logistical matters.

Komplexe: Do Ukrainians indeed see a strategy from their leadership that favors preserving human lives at the expense of territory, unlike the Russians, or is it merely talk?
Because of the serious human deficit on the Ukrainian side, the high command often opts for retreats if the position is too costly to protect. This is what I've heard from brigade and battalion commanders. However, there are still commanders trained in Soviet times who are less frugal with men. The contrast between the Ukrainian and Russian armies seems to be very marked in this respect.

Bag: Can we already assess General Syrsky's performance? Does the army or the country miss General Zaluzhny?
I'm not a sociologist, and I'm basing my opinion on 20 or so recent interviews with servicemen. Oleksandr Syrsky is clearly less popular than Valery Zaluzhny. Some (a minority) feel that Oleksandr Syrsky has introduced more discipline into the army's workings, and better coordination. Many feel that he is a conveyor belt for political power and does not sufficiently defend the army's interests vis-à-vis the rest of the country, particularly on the crucial issue of mobilization.
 
Ukraine to receive F-16s 'very soon' but much aid arriving late, defence minister says

Ukraine will receive its first supplies of F-16 fighter jets "very soon", but around half of its desperately needed foreign military aid is arriving late, Kyiv's defence minister has said.
Rustem Umerov, 42, told Reuters in an interview in Kyiv late on Monday that Russia was deploying more manpower and equipment to the front, more than 27 months after its full-scale invasion.
Kyiv's forces have managed to stabilise the new front in the northeastern Kharkiv region where Russia attacked earlier this month. But Umerov said Moscow was preparing for a new push.
"Their objective is to open a new front in the north to start using all their manpower, firing power, against us, they are continuing with their objective to destroy the nation," he said.
"We are withstanding, but of course we need more weapons, we need more firing power, we need long-range missiles, not to allow them to enter our state."
He said Ukraine was grateful for the military aid and weapons supplied by its partners, but that only half of the promised deliveries arrived on time. Every delay benefited Ukraine's much larger and better-equipped foe, with a front line stretching 1,200 km (750 miles).

The minister said Russia had about 500,000 troops in Ukraine and near its borders, and was preparing to add another 200,000-300,000.

He said he expected the F-16 fighter jets to be delivered "hopefully very, very soon".
Asked how many Kyiv expected to receive, he said, in English: "We need as much as we may get."
"At this stage, we are focused on training our personnel ... pilots, we are focused on infrastructure, we are focused on bringing operational and maintenance teams and we are working on modernisation or bringing on more platforms."
He said Ukraine was also continuing to step up its own production of weapons and drones, as well as its electronic warfare capabilities.

Sweden halts plan for Gripen jets to Ukraine, news agency TT reports

Sweden is pausing plans to send Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine in order to allow for the introduction of F-16 fighter jets, the Swedish defence minister told news agency TT in Brussels on Tuesday.

"We have been urged by the other countries in the coalition to wait with the Gripen system," Defence Minister Pal Jonson told TT, referring to nations that plan to donate U.S.-made F-16 planes to Ukraine.
"This has to do with the fact that the focus is now on introducing the F-16 system," Jonson said.
 

F-16s pledged so far:

NL: 24 + 18
BE: 30
NO: up to 22
DK: 19

Total: up to 113 (but not all airworthy)

This is beginning to approach the maximum that can be hoped for.

Pilot training to support this quantity at the current pace would take into 2029.


It has been reported by BILD that when Ukraine used Patriot missiles against Russian aerial vehicles in Bryansk back in May 13, 2023, where in a matter of minutes two Russian Mil Mi-8, one Su-34 and one Su-35 were blown out of the Russian sky, that Berlin and Washington were furious. They threatened to stop deliveries if this repeats.


The Ukrainian General Staff plans to cut 60% of its personnel, and some of them will be sent to C2 and combat units, said Brigadier General Yevhenii Ostrianskyi, head of the General Staff’s Main Department of Defence Planning, on May 24.

“A functional review was conducted at the General Staff in February-March this year, which resulted in a decision to optimise the staffing of some structural units and military command and control bodies. This process includes the disbanding of a number of military organisational structures, the formation of new ones, and the optimisation of existing ones. These measures will eliminate overlapping functions and reduce the number of personnel by 60%.”

He said the cut officers will backfill operational/tactical-level C2 bodies and combat units, which will in turn allow for unit rotation.



“If Ukraine loses, then our security is going to be impacted in a very negative way,” warns Latvia’s President @edgarsrinkevics. “It’s about international law. It’s about international order. And I think that we don’t want to see the repetition of the darkest moments of history.”


Interesting - Lithuania's defense industry has developed a loitering munition that resembles the Russian Lancet.


Ukraine's strikes on targets in Russia should not be a subject of discussion in the EU, Kyiv should have the right to do so for its own self-defence.
This was stated in Brussels before a meeting of EU defence ministers by Dutch Defence Minister Kajsa Ollongren, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.
Ollongren stressed that she had never ruled out the possibility of Ukraine launching strikes inside Russia as Kyiv defends itself and tries to restore its territorial integrity.

Putin warns West not to let Ukraine use its missiles to hit Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin warned the West on Tuesday that NATO members in Europe were playing with fire by proposing to let Ukraine use Western weapons to strike inside Russia, which he said could trigger a global conflict.
More than two years into the deadliest land war in Europe since World War Two, as the West considers what to do about Russian military advances, Putin is increasingly evoking the risk of a global war, while Western leaders play it down.
 
Macron Says Ukraine Must Be Allowed to Hit Russian Missile Sites

Ukraine must be allowed to respond to Russian missile strikes by taking out the sites they are fired from, French President Emmanuel Macron said.
“Ukraine is actually being attacked from bases in Russia,” he said on Tuesday. “We must allow them to take out the military sites the missiles are fired from, essentially the military sites from which Ukraine is attacked.”
Speaking alongside German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at a joint news conference at Schloss Meseberg, north of Berlin, Macron cautioned that Ukraine must not be allowed to hit other targets in Russia, adding that “we don’t want escalation.”
Scholz added that Kyiv “has every option according to international law for what it is doing” and can defend itself.

Ukraine Calls for Czech-Led Ammo Shipments to Start in June

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal has called on allies to deliver regular shipments of artillery ammunition from the Czech-led initiative starting next month as Kyiv seeks to repel Russia’s onslaught along the front line.
“It’s important for us so that the ammunition arrives on time, systematically and according to the schedule starting in June already,” he said in a post on Telegram.


The Ukrainian military has acquired modernized Buk-M1 anti-aircraft systems, now integrated with US-supplied Sea Sparrow missiles, with Ukraine’s Air Command East’s press service releasing photos of the upgraded equipment.

Previously, the Ukrainian military decided to integrate Western RIM-7 anti-aircraft missiles into Soviet-era Buk-M1 systems due to dwindling stocks of the original 9M38 missiles.

The photos feature missileers alongside a 9A310M1 self-propelled launcher and a 9A39 launcher from the Buk-M1 system, now upgraded with compact launch containers for RIM-7 Sea Sparrow missiles, concealed by camouflage nets, according to Militarnyi.


According to Victor Kantsurak, State Secretary of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to the destruction of around 30% of the entire potential of the Ukrainian agricultural sector.

According to Kantsurak, almost 20% of agricultural lands are occupied. “Large areas are mined or contaminated with explosive objects,” he said
 


The Ukrainian military has acquired modernized Buk-M1 anti-aircraft systems, now integrated with US-supplied Sea Sparrow missiles, with Ukraine’s Air Command East’s press service releasing photos of the upgraded equipment.

Previously, the Ukrainian military decided to integrate Western RIM-7 anti-aircraft missiles into Soviet-era Buk-M1 systems due to dwindling stocks of the original 9M38 missiles.

The photos feature missileers alongside a 9A310M1 self-propelled launcher and a 9A39 launcher from the Buk-M1 system, now upgraded with compact launch containers for RIM-7 Sea Sparrow missiles, concealed by camouflage nets, according to Militarnyi.


"known as FrankenSAM" :lmao: :lmao: :lmao:
 

Just announced: Sweden will donate a new military capability to strengthen Ukraine’s air defence. Package 16 will be the largest 🇸🇪 military aid package yet at €1,16bln. Sweden will donate Airborne Surveillance and Control aircraft (ASC 890) to 🇺🇦. (1/6)

ASC 890 will provide 🇺🇦 with a new capability against both airborne and maritime targets. 🇺🇦 capability to identify targets at long range will be strengthened. They will act as a force multiplier with the introduction of F-16. AMRAAMs will also be donated. (2/6)
Sweden will also donate its entire stock of armoured tracked personnel carriers (PBV 302) to support the reconstruction of new Ukrainian brigades. Sweden will also donate artillery ammunition and resources for maintenance of previously donated materiel. (3/6)
Sweden will also deliver surplus tank vehicles from the armed forces, maintenance of previously donated Swedish materiel, financial support to capability coalitions and to funds and temporary initiatives to enable swift and large-scale procurement of materiel to Ukraine. (4/6)
The Swedish Defence Research Agency will also be tasked with supporting Ukraine in establishing its own defence research institute. (5/6)
Furthermore, Ukraine’s command and control capability will be strengthened in the package through a donation of terminals with subscriptions for satellite communications.

Photos: The Swedish Armed Forces and Måns Thuresson. (6/6)


Important shift by Olaf Scholz:

A person "familiar" with the German gov's position confirms to POLITICO's Berlin Playbook that the Chancellor did indeed mean with yesterday's remark that Ukraine could strike back with Western weapons on Russian soil.
2/ Scholz's spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit now on the record: Ukraine's "defensive action is not limited to one's own territory, but also includes the territory of the aggressor."

"I had the impression that the Chancellor was not surprised by what Macron said."
3/ Journalists grilled Hebestreit whether and which German weapons could be used, but the Scholz spokesperson insisted: ""I can't tell you that because the agreement is confidential."

He highlighted that weapons delivered by German have a lower range than arms by other countries
4/ It got a bit confusing: Confronted with a Scholz statement from May 2023 that German weapons would "only be used on Ukrainian territory," his spox said this was "a statement of facts" at that moment.

He wouldn't say whether this had changed since (he claimed he didn't know).


Finland has allowed Ukraine to use Finnish weapons on Russian territory, according to Elina Valtonen, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs

"Russia is conducting an illegal aggressive war in Ukraine, and Ukraine has the right to self-defense under Article 51 of the UN Charter," said Elina Valtonen, the head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.


A Ukrainian military official, however, said the British government had never formally communicated the lifting of restrictions.
“There is no official permission,” the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive security matter. The official added that British Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles, which have a range of more than 150 miles, have never been used to strike a target outside sovereign Ukrainian territory. (They have been used to hit Crimea, which Russia illegally annexed in 2014.)
“First, [politicians] throw this idea into the information space to see the reaction of their people,” the official said. “After that, they decide: ‘Yes, we allow,’ or ‘No, we do not allow.’”
 

Three Ukrainian pilots have graduated from F-16 training with the Arizona National Guard and a fourth is expected to graduate shortly, a U.S. official told Task & Purpose. The trio are the first Ukranians to be trained to fly and fight in the U.S. fighter.

Eight Ukrainian pilots remain in the F-16 training pipeline with the Arizona Air National Guard’s 162nd Wing in Tucson, the U.S. official said. The wing is a longtime training hub for F-16s, with both a traditional pilot training program for American flyers qualifying on the jet and the Air Force’s only schoolhouse dedicated to training pilots from 25 different countries on the advanced U.S. fighter.

“The mission of training proficient and resilient pilots is not a new for the 162d Wing,” said Col. Brant Putnam, the wing’s commander. “The recent graduation of Ukrainian pilots exemplifies the dedication of our instructor pilots, who make the 162d the premier Air Force F-16 training location for both US and foreign military. The Ukrainian student’s graduation marks they have met their training requirements and are ready to move on to the next phase set by their country.”


So far, only Canada, Denmark, Netherlands, and Portugal have sent money to buy artillery rounds for Ukraine under the Czech initiative. Prague has called on other allies to make the promised financial contributions, said Czech Defense Minister Jana Černochová, Euractiv reports.

So far, 18 countries have joined the initiative. Despite this, funds are coming to the Czech Republic gradually. The minister explained that the country cannot buy ammunition on credit.


Fifteen EU and NATO countries have contributed more than EUR 1.6 billion (CZK 39.5 billion) to the Czech shells-for Ukraine initiative, Prime Minister Petr Fiala said at a joint press briefing with a group of EU leaders in Prague on Tuesday. The first tens of thousands of 155 mm calibre ammunition will arrive in Ukraine in the course of June, and the country can expect the first shipment in the next few days, the prime minister said.

The Czech prime minister hosted a work dinner for a group of EU leaders and the prime minister of Ukraine aimed at coordinating and strengthening aid to Ukraine in the face of continuing Russian aggression. The meeting was attended by the prime misters of the Netherlands, Denmark and Latvia, as well as Polish President Andrej Duda and US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs James O'Brien.


Poland believes that Ukraine should have the right to use Western weapons to attack targets on the territory of Russia, Polish Deputy Minister of Defense Cezary Tomczyk said in Brussels, reports Polskie Radio.


❗🇺🇸🇳🇴🇺🇦 Per a video released by @United24media, it appears Ukraine received AIM-9X Sidewinder for employment by their U.S.-Norwegian NASAMS fire units.

AIM-9X is the most recent version of Sidewinder and confirms that Ukraine received NASAMS 3 fire units.
 
Extraordinary story in this thread here (other link with the images here): https://x.com/MaxRTucker/status/1795770983820742715

In Kharkiv for @thetimes, I encountered an astonishing act of heroism by ‘Drago’ (L), a 24 yr-old special forces officer in Ukraine’s Kraken Detachment. He was awarded a medal for valour for extraordinary actions while holding the Russians for 16 hours at the village of Krasne…
Elite Russian Spetznaz had crept into his unit’s rear, he told me: “You could see how professionally and well co-ordinated they were working; it was high-level stuff. They had the latest-model Kalashnikovs and night-vision devices. They covered their movement by accurate fire.”
Drago was recovering from concussion and second-degree burns at Kraken headquarters in the bombed-out city of Kharkiv as he described his encounter with Russia’s feared special forces.
Plumes of smoke trailed into the sky above the city as he spoke, marking the aftermath of a Russian air raid on a factory.
Putin failed to take Kharkiv in the early months of the war and his forces now appear determined to raze the city. Once home to 1.5 million mostly Russian-speaking inhabitants, today it is scarred by flattened apartment blocks and university buildings riddled with shrapnel.
Drago and his men had been watching Russian troops massing across the border since last month, powerless to hit their supplies and ammunition with a pre-emptive strike because of a US prohibition on the use of long-range American missiles on Russian soil.
“There were a lot of Russians gathering, we could’ve destroyed them coming in but we don’t have many ATACMS and we have a ban on using them there,” he said, shaking his head as he discussed the casualties the US policy cost his unit. “We had to wait for them to cross the border.”
When the Russians did move into the Kharkiv region, they ran straight into his First Assault Company, specialist night fighters under the command of Ukraine’s military intelligence, HUR. Along with other special forces fighters, they had been redeployed from the Donbas region.
The clash triggered a day-long gun battle between elite soldiers at the village of Krasne as the Russians pressed their new offensive against Ukraine’s second-largest city.
This account is based on a Kraken commander’s report, Drago’s testimony, and the HUR rationale for awarding him the Order for Courage medal, presented by Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, for “bold and decisive actions in a tactically unfavourable situation”.
Russian artillery had opened up at 3am, covering the movement of small groups of specialised infantry. The Spetsnaz bypassed Ukraine’s defensive strongpoints at night, looping back to encircle the Ukrainian troops who held them.
“They came through the marshes and the trees, almost unnoticed by our attack drones,” said Drago, who was encouraged to join the special forces during his training with the British military last summer.
“The adjacent units were newly formed, people who had no combat experience yet. They were next to us, trying to hold the line of defence, but the enemy, consisting of 20 people, came to our rear.”
Drago tried to shoot his way out of the trenches, but the Russians tossed in grenades, igniting the wooden fortifications and burning both his legs. With the enemy in front and his trenches on fire, the situation seemed hopeless. He called in artillery fire on his own position.
“It worked. The artillery killed at least three of them and they dropped back. Then our back-up group arrived with machinegunners,” he said. This second team of eight Kraken soldiers tried to provide covering fire from a treeline.
But working methodically, the Russians took out their machinegunners. One was killed outright; the other was wounded, shot in the lung and coughing up blood. “At first my mind went empty. It felt so hard to see my friend lying dead on the ground,” he told me:
“I was drained and devastated that the guy who came here to save us had died.” The men who had been hit were his friends from civilian life, bonded closer by two years of war together.
“I was trying to pull myself together. I realised I have to be patient, to calm down, and I need to save my other friend’s life.” Drago clambered out of cover to reach the wounded gunner, dragged him into a trench and managed to dress his wound and stabilise him.
Then he was caught by another grenade and concussed as he called for casualty evacuation. He lost his rifle in the blast, so grabbed a Kalashnikov from a dead Russian and fought on.
The Russians arrived inside the first dugout, starting a shootout at a distance of only 5m from the second dugout. Drago’s group killed at least two of them.
The second group of three fell back to another area where the evacuation vehicle was arriving. Badly wounded, Drago and his second group could not make it there before it was forced to leave under heavy fire.
He called in a second vehicle but the Russians were already in the Ukrainian trenches and the driver could not tell where to go to evacuate Drago and his men. In plain sight of the Russians, Drago decided to stand up over the parapet to signal his position, ignoring the bullets.
Ordering the driver to park with one hand on the steering wheel and the other firing his rifle at the enemy, Drago covered the evacuation with a smoke grenade, then dragged the wounded machinegunner into the back of the vehicle.
By the time they pulled away, the Kraken teams had held the Russians at Krasne for 16 hours, buying crucial time for more Ukrainian special forces and assault brigades to take up positions at the village of Lyptsi, where they are fighting fiercely to hold on to high ground.
Their task has been made more difficult, HUR officers say, because the US has still not given the go-ahead to use long-range weapons such as ATACMS on Russian soil, despite Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, hinting at lifting those restrictions.


Russia plans to change its flat-rate tax for the first time in over 20 years. Until now, it has been 13 per cent for everyone, with a few exceptions. Now the ministry of finance is proposing that it should be between 13 and 22 per cent

The war won’t finance itself after all


Satellite imagery shows that a Ukrainian strike last night on an airfield near the capital of Ukraine's eastern Luhansk region looks to have targeted an advanced Russian long-range radar system. The potential loss of elements of the Nebo-M radar system could have significant impacts on the ability of Russia's forces to detect, track, and attempt to intercept various aerial threats, including ballistic missiles. To underscore the point, there are unconfirmed reports that U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) short-range ballistic missiles were used in the strike in the first place.
 
Think tank close to Kremlin says Russia should consider a 'demonstrative' nuclear explosion

A senior member of a Russian think tank whose ideas sometimes become government policy has suggested Moscow consider a "demonstrative" nuclear explosion to cow the West into refusing to allow Ukraine to use its arms against targets inside Russia.
The proposal, opens new tab, by Dmitry Suslov, a member of the Moscow-based Council for Foreign and Defence Policy, was issued a day after President Vladimir Putin warned the West that NATO members in Europe were playing with fire by proposing to let Kyiv use Western weapons to strike deep inside Russia, something he said could trigger a global conflict.


Yermolenko is the only recorded Russian casualty so far to have been born in 2006, making him the youngest known soldier to have died since Putin ordered his troops into Ukraine more than two years ago.


To keep Ukraine’s artillery crews supplied, the Pentagon set a production target last year of 100,000 shells per month by the end of 2025. Factories in Scranton and Wilkes-Barre, Pa., together make about 36,000 shells per month. The new General Dynamics facility in Mesquite, Texas, will make 30,000 each month once it reaches its full capacity.
The 100,000-per-month goal represents a nearly tenfold increase in production from a few years ago.
An Ohio-based defense firm called IMT is expected to make up the difference. .
Less than a year ago, the surrounding area here in North Texas was just a dirt field. But with millions of dollars from Congress and help from Repkon, the American defense firm General Dynamics was able to open the factory about 10 months after breaking ground.
“Despite all our starts and stops with the government, the continuing resolutions and getting the last supplemental, the industrial base responds when you fund it and it’s done right,” William A. LaPlante, the Pentagon’s top acquisition official, said in an interview with his Army counterpart, Douglas R. Bush.
According to Mr. LaPlante, the United States has provided more than three million 155-millimeter shells to Kyiv since the war began in February 2022.
“When government and industry work together and Congress gives us sufficient latitude, we can still do great things in this country really fast,” Mr. Bush added.
Whether the increase in artillery ammunition production alone will be enough to change outcomes on the battlefield in Ukraine’s favor is, however, unknown.
“The steady increase of artillery ammunition production is significant for long-term U.S. and Ukrainian needs,” said Michael Kofman, an expert on the Russian military and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “but even in the best case scenario, I would say those late-2025 output targets will arrive late in this war, and it is likely that Russian artillery output will still be higher than the U.S. and Europe combined at that point.”
“Let’s say a year and a half from now both the U.S. and Europe are making, or buying, over a million shells each,” he added. “That’s still probably less than Russia is going to produce this year.”

Mr. LaPlante and Mr. Bush both indicated that European countries were also ramping up their artillery ammunition production, and U.S. defense contractors are in talks with the Ukrainian government to find ways to help Ukraine bolster its own domestic defense industry.
The United States has transferred sensitive manufacturing plans for more than 1,000 American weapons to Kyiv, and translated an equal number of technical manuals from English to Ukrainian, the two officials said.
When asked, they stopped short of saying which weapons.
“What are they using the most?” Mr. Bush replied.


The Frontelligence Insight assesses that Russia is very close to launching the new railroad line between Burne and Malovodne (Donetsk Oblast), likely within weeks or days. The satellite imagery confirms limited train movement

Before proceeding, please like and share

Thread🧵:
2/ The construction of an 80km railroad in Donetsk Oblast, approximately initiated around June 2023, aimed to establish a direct link between occupied southern Ukraine and the rest of Russia as a partial alternative to the Crimean Bridge.
3/ According to Mariupol mayoral advisor Petro Andriushchenko's statement on May 8th, operations are expected to commence by late May or early June. Additionally, in April and early May, three test trains traveled from Volnovakha in Donetsk Oblast to Mariupol's port and back.
4/ Based on mid-resolution imagery, it's evident that on May 24th, at least one train was traveling on the new railroad. With the aid of satellite imagery captured with a time gap, we confirmed that the train was in motion and not static.
5/ The current resolution does not allow us to determine whether it was another "test" train or if it's a train involved in railroad construction. However, based on other high-resolution imagery, we assume that this is the very final stage before its launch
6/ Our team assesses that this new railroad would suffice to supply the region even if the Crimean Bridge is destroyed. Additionally, the railroad reduces travel time from Russia. For more details on the impact and deeper assessment, refer to our latest report on our website


Apparently, the Ukrainian 36th Separate Marine Brigade is being redeployed to the Kharkiv front.
 

Soldiers in Ukraine say US-supplied tanks have made them targets for Russian strikes​

Story by Exclusive by Nick Paton Walsh, Mick Krever, Kosta Gak and Brice Laine, CNN

Ukrainian crews working on US-supplied Abrams tanks have told CNN of a series of the weaknesses and flaws with the armored vehicles, calling into doubt their utility on the war’s ever-changing frontlines. The donation was announced by US President Joe Biden as evidence of the United States’ “enduring and unflagging commitment to Ukraine.”

CNN journalists were the first reporters to see the M1 Abrams in Ukraine, at a location in the country’s east, where around six vehicles were visible, hiding in the foliage.

Crews trained in Germany said the vehicles – the US military’s main $10 million battle tank used in Iraq against Saddam Hussein’s forces and insurgents – lacked armor that could stop modern weapons.

“Its armor is not sufficient for this moment,” said one crew member, callsign Joker. “It doesn’t protect the crew. For real, today this is the war of drones. So now, when the tank rolls out, they always try to hit them.”

His colleague, Dnipro, added they are the “number one target.”

“Without defense, the crew doesn’t survive at the battlefield,” he said.

The crew showed CNN their attempts to affix active armor to one damaged tank. They used plates of plastic explosive that, when hit by a round, detonate and provide a protective counter-blast.

All 31 Abrams deployed to Ukraine are engaged near the frontline in the east, according to officials in the 47th Mechanised Brigade, who took receipt of them all. The Ukrainian request for Abrams, complex and heavy tanks, sparked significant debate in early 2023, as the American vehicle has a complex supply chain. Some versions even run on jet fuel.

Pentagon officials said in April that the Abrams were pulled back from the frontline due to the threat of Russian attack drones, although the 47th said some were still in action, despite the deficiencies that had materialized.

Much of the Ukrainian frontline is now dominated by the use of self-destructing attack drones, tiny and accurate devices that can swarm infantry and even cause significant damage to tanks. The advent of these so called First-Person Vision (FPV) drones, flown by soldiers wearing gaming goggles, has changed the nature of the war, limiting movement and introducing a new element of vulnerability to armored vehicles.

This Ukrainian crew have learned of the Abrams’ limitations the hard way, in pitched battles around the town of Avdiivka, which Russia finally took control of in February. A driver lost a leg when the armor was penetrated. Yet it is not just innovation that is hamstringing the tanks — they appear to have technical issues too.

One, parked under a tree, was almost immobile during CNN’s visit, due to an engine problem, the crew say, despite the vehicle having just been shipped in from Poland. They also complain of how, in rain or fog, condensation can fry the electronics inside the vehicle.

CNN has reached out to the Pentagon for comment.

Ammunition is also a problem, like elsewhere on the Ukrainian frontline. They say they seem to have the wrong type for the fight they are in.

“What we have is more for direct tank-to-tank fights, which happens very rarely,” Joker said. “Much more often we work as artillery. You need to take apart a tree-line or a building. We had a case when we fired 17 rounds into a house and it was still standing.”

The tank’s poor performance has been mocked by Russian analysts, dubbing them “empty tin cans.” One model was captured by Russian forces and, damaged, paraded in Red Square.

The Ukrainian crew expressed frustration the tanks were made for a NATO style of warfare, in which air power and artillery prepare the battlefield before tanks and infantry advance. Kyiv has long bemoaned its lack of artillery and air power.

“They would never do it,” Joker said, of NATO soldiers undertaking the same advances they make without air support. He switched to English to mimic a NATO soldier: “‘Call the aviation, call the artillery,’” he said. “We have no aviation and artillery. We have only tank. And it’s the problem.”


A spokesperson for the Ukrainian defense ministry told CNN that “Ukraine is now testing and improving equipment that was not initially prepared for our war.”

“We are asking all countries to support us with equipment of any technical capacity levels. We use all of it accordingly,” the spokesperson added.

Biden’s decision to supply the Abrams came after European allies pledged to send their own battle tanks in early 2023 ahead of Ukraine’s failed summer counteroffensive last year, a step that had been deemed unthinkable months earlier.

Kyiv’s allies have slowly swallowed the red lines of what equipment they once refused to supply. F-16s may arrive in Ukraine in the months ahead. Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s military commander, on Monday said he had signed initial paperwork to permit France to send military trainers into the country to try and reverse an urgent manpower problem on the frontlines. France’s defense ministry declined to confirm the plan, but said it, and other ideas, had long been under discussion. The move would mark a significant escalation in the West’s involvement in the war, now in its third year.


The Ukrainian defense ministry later appeared to tamp down those expectations, saying in a statement to CNN that it had “started internal paperwork to move forward when the decision is taken.”

For the Abrams crew, each delay in equipment or assistance costs the lives of friends. “I only have one question,” Joker said of US assistance. “Why is this taking so long and (comes) partially? We are losing time. It’s death to us.”
 
Emmanuel Macron wants to build a European coalition of military instructors in Ukraine

A few hundred specialists from several countries could be involved in the long term, in order to train deminers, or even, as one imagines on the French side, to help train a new motorized brigade.

Nothing is finalized yet, but sending French and European instructors to Ukraine could be a matter of weeks, or even days. According to our information, the French authorities are indeed seeking to set up a coalition of willing countries to train Ukrainian forces besieged by the Russian army.

According to concordant sources, consultations on this subject should accelerate in the coming days, to allow for a possible announcement when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky comes to France on the occasion of the 80th anniversary of the Normandy landings, on June 6 and 7. Emmanuel Macron could then unveil the contours of such an initiative, three and a half months after he said he did not rule out sending Western military reinforcements to Ukrainian territory on February 26.


Footage of Ukrainian SSO personnel reportedly in the Kharkiv direction.


Naval drones operated by Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) hit two Russian patrol boats, likely the KS-701 Tunets (Tuna) model, in occupied Crimea overnight on May 30, a source in the agency told the Kyiv Independent.


Ukrainian military intelligence video of the drone attack on the Russian patrol boats off Crimea. (awaiting further confirmation...)


Security services around Europe are on alert to a potential new weapon of Russia’s war – arson and sabotage – after a spate of mystery fires and attacks on infrastructure in the Baltics, Germany and the UK.

When a fire broke out in Ikea in Vilnius in Lithuania this month, few passed any remarks until the Polish prime minister, Donald Tusk, suggested it could have been the work of a foreign saboteur.

Investigators have already alleged potential Russian involvement in an arson attack in east London, an inferno that destroyed the largest shopping mall in Poland, a sabotage attempt in Bavaria in Germany and antisemitic graffiti in Paris.

While there is no evidence that any of these incidents across the continent are coordinated, security services believe they could be part of an attempt by Moscow to destabilise the west, which has backed Ukraine.

They point out that after the cold war, foreign intelligence operations consisted of spies and their handlers, but in the era of social media, vandals can be hired, leaving few connections to other attackers as pay-as-you-go saboteurs paid a few hundred euros or in cryptocurrency.

Such is the emerging concern that these hybrid attacks could be the work of Russia that the issue was raised at a summit of foreign and defence ministers in Brussels this week with Dutch, Estonian and Lithuanian security officials all warning of national vulnerabilities.

One minister, who asked not to be named said, they were deeply worried about “sabotage, physical sabotage, organised, financed and done by Russian proxies”.
 

One Russian newspaper today claims that Putin has delivered “an unambiguous ultimatum” to the West regarding Ukraine and hopes “that in the West they won’t think he’s bluffing.”


Russia is beating western capitals in securing artillery supplies on international markets, the Czech government has said, warning that delayed payments to arms companies could lead to millions of ammunition rounds being sent to Moscow instead of Kyiv.
Prague is coordinating purchases of ammunition from arms companies in non-Nato countries on behalf of many western allies, but is struggling to compete with Moscow, which has proved it can get financing to manufacturers faster.
“There are some countries that are supplying [Ukraine] from the same stockpiles that the Russians are [buying from],” Tomáš Kopečný, Prague’s envoy for the reconstruction of Ukraine, told journalists Thursday. “If you have the cash to do the pre-payment faster than the Russians, then the products go to the Ukrainian side. If you don’t have the cash on the account, then sometimes it goes to the Russians.”
The Czech warning comes as its domestic arms producer Czechoslovak Group, the largest ammunition supplier in central Europe, warned that rising prices and poor quality meant that half the shells it had received could not be sent to Ukraine’s battlefields as quickly as planned.
Michal Strnad, owner and chair of CSG, told the Financial Times that about 50 per cent of the parts acquired by his company on behalf of the Czech government in places such as Africa and Asia were not good enough to be sent to Ukraine without further work. For some shells, CSG is being forced to add missing components from its own production.
“Every week the price is going up and there are big issues with the components,” Strnad said during an interview in his company’s Prague offices. “It’s not an easy job.”
However, he stressed that the Czech initiative remained “on track” and that CSG was committed to delivering its assigned part of the supplies.
The war in Ukraine has helped to send prices soaring for the limited number of shells that could be purchased outside of Nato states at a time when there is no spare ammunition or production capacity in Europe.
“The production capacity is out there. But it is not in Europe,” Kopečný said. “There are single-digit millions of rounds of ammunition that we are competing [with Russia] for . . . The only thing we need for that is corresponding finances.”

Czechoslovak Group, the largest ammunition supplier in central Europe, warned that rising prices and poor quality meant that half the shells it had received could not be sent to Ukraine’s battlefields as quickly as planned.
A Czech-led initiative to buy artillery ammunition for Kyiv would start delivering rounds in June, Michal Strnad, owner and chair of CSG, told the Financial Times.
But he said that about 50 per cent of the parts acquired by his company on behalf of the Czech government in places such as Africa and Asia were not good enough to be sent without further work to Ukraine. For some shells, CSG is being forced to add missing components from its own production.

“Every week the price is going up and there are big issues with the components,” Strnad said during an interview in his company’s Prague offices. “It’s not an easy job.”
However, he stressed that the Czech initiative remained “on track” and that CSG was committed to delivering its assigned part of the supplies.

The war in Ukraine was helping to send prices soaring for the limited number of shells that could be purchased outside of the EU at a time when there was no spare ammunition in Europe, Strnad warned.
He said that the order books of European ammunition makers were full for up to the next eight years, depending on the type of parts, even as “all of us are increasing the capacities”.
Even in the unlikely scenario of Ukraine’s war finishing right now, he said, “there will be huge work in front of us to replenish the strategic stocks of Nato countries”.

The Czech government has asked CSG and other smaller Czech defence companies to act as intermediaries and source the shells from countries outside the EU.
Strnad said he was in separate discussions with authorities in Kyiv to start building facilities in Ukraine that could make CSG the first EU defence company to produce large-calibre shells in Ukraine.
As part of the plans, CSG would build a factory in Ukraine, a truck assembly line and a maintenance facility to handle weapons delivered to Kyiv. CSG would spend “a few hundred million euros” to launch its three Ukrainian manufacturing projects and was hoping to reach an agreement with Kyiv this year.


Europe has only a fraction of the air defence capabilities needed to protect its eastern flank, according to Nato’s own internal calculations, laying bare the scale of the continent’s vulnerabilities.
Russia’s war against Ukraine has underscored the importance of air defence, as Kyiv begs the west for additional systems and rockets to protect its cities, troops and energy grid against daily bombing raids.
But according to people familiar with confidential defence plans drawn up last year, Nato states are able to provide less than 5 per cent of air defence capacities deemed necessary to protect its members in central and eastern Europe against a full-scale attack.
One senior Nato diplomat said the ability to defend against missiles and air strikes was “a major part of the plan to defend eastern Europe from invasion”, adding: “And right now, we don’t have that.”

Russia’s heavy use of missiles, drones and highly destructive Soviet-era “glide bombs” in Ukraine has added urgency to Nato members’ efforts to ramp up defence spending after decades of military budget cuts.
“[Air defence] is one of the biggest holes we have,” said a second Nato diplomat. “We can’t deny it.”
The failure of European Nato states in recent months to provide additional air defence equipment to Ukraine has underscored the continent’s limited stocks of the expensive and slow-to-manufacture systems.
It has also prompted a series of overlapping initiatives to try to find long-term solutions. Last year, Germany launched its Sky Shield initiative with more than a dozen other EU countries to develop a shared air defence system using US and Israeli-developed technology.
However, France has publicly criticised the proposal and offered a rival concept backed by a smaller number of allies.

The proliferation of cheap, long-range attack drones, as used by Russia against Ukraine, has added to these concerns.
“Long-range strikes are no longer a superpower capability,” said one western defence official.
A Nato official said that “capability targets and defence plans are classified” but added that air and missile defences “are top priorities” and that “stockpiles have been reduced”.
“Nato’s new defence plans also significantly increase air and missile defence requirements in quantity and readiness,” the official said, adding that countries were investing in new air defence capabilities including fighter jets.
“So we are confident that Nato’s deterrence against Russia remains strong,” they added.
Immediately after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the US deployed a Patriot battery air defence system to protect an airport in southern Poland that became a hub for shipping western weapons to Kyiv.
But officials say Nato members have so few such systems to spare that their capacity to deploy any more beyond their own territories is severely limited.
In the UK, the Royal Navy’s six Type 45 destroyers are equipped with ballistic missile defence systems, but the vessels have been dogged by design flaws.
The British army also has six state-of-the-art Sky Sabre ground-based air defence systems, but their missile interceptors only have a range of about 40km, and two of the systems are overseas.
“The UK’s air defence capability is entirely inadequate,” said Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute think-tank in London.
Full integration of Europe’s various air defence systems could help compensate for the shortfall by creating a dense mesh of sensors and interceptors across the continent.
But “attempts to update Nato’s command and control infrastructure for air defence have never gotten off the ground”, Watling said.
 
Last edited:

The Swedish government has clarified that Ukraine will receive two ASC 890 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft within the largest aid package.

Ukraine says Russia building up forces near Kharkiv region's north

Russia is building up forces near the northern part of Ukraine's Kharkiv region where it launched an offensive this month, but it still lacks the troop numbers to stage a major push in the area, Ukraine's top commander said on Thursday.
Ukraine says it has stabilised the front in the northeastern Kharkiv region where Russian forces launched a cross-border assault on May 10 that opened a new front in the 27-month-old war and stretched Kyiv's outnumbered troops.
Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi said Russia was continuing to send additional regiments and brigades from other areas and from training grounds to bulk up its troops on two main lines of attack in Kharkiv region's north.
That includes the Strilecha-Lyptsi area between two small villages and the vicinity of the border town of Vovchansk where there has been street fighting.
"These forces are currently insufficient for a large-scale offensive and breakthrough of our defence," Syrskyi said in a statement on the Telegram messaging app.

U.S. concerned about Ukraine strikes on Russian nuclear radar stations

The United States fears that recent Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian nuclear early-warning systems could dangerously unsettle Moscow at a time when the Biden administration is weighing whether to lift restrictions on Ukraine using U.S.-supplied weapons in cross-border attacks.
“The United States is concerned about Ukraine’s recent strikes against Russian ballistic missile early-warning sites,” said a U.S. official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity.
Washington has conveyed its concerns to Kyiv about two attempted attacks over the last week against radar stations that provide conventional air defense as well as warning of nuclear launches by the West. At least one strike in Armavir, in Russia’s southeastern Krasnodar region, appeared to have caused some damage.
“These sites have not been involved in supporting Russia’s war against Ukraine,” the U.S. official said. “But they are sensitive locations because Russia could perceive that its strategic deterrent capabilities are being targeted, which could undermine Russia’s ability to maintain nuclear deterrence against the United States.”
A Ukrainian official familiar with the matter, however, said that Russia has used the radar sites to monitor the Ukrainian military’s activities, particularly Kyiv’s use of aerial weaponry, such as drones and missiles. The official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive security matter, confirmed that Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate, known by its initials as GUR, was responsible for the strikes.

The Ukrainian official said the goal of the strikes was to diminish Russia’s ability to track the Ukrainian military’s activities in southern Ukraine. The drone that targeted the radar station near Orsk, in Russia’s Orenburg region along Kazakhstan’s northern border, traveled more than 1,100 miles, making it one of the deepest attempted strikes into Russian territory. The Ukrainian official declined to say whether the strike, on May 26, caused any damage.
U.S. officials said they are sympathetic to Ukraine’s plight — administration officials are actively weighing whether to lift restraints on the use of U.S.-provided weapons to strike inside Russia. But were Russia’s early-warning capabilities to be blinded by Ukrainian attacks, even in part, that could hurt strategic stability between Washington and Moscow, the U.S. official said.
“Russia could think it has a diminished ability to detect early nuclear activity against it, which then could become an issue,” the official said. “It should be obvious to everyone that there’s no intention whatsoever [by the United States] of using nuclear weapons against Russia. But there’s certainly concern about how Russia could perceive its deterrent capabilities being targeted and early-warning systems being attacked.”
 
Why Putin’s next target could be the Balkans

Russia could inflame tensions in the Balkans and create a new war for the West to diffuse if it prevails in its war with Ukraine, Kosovo’s top diplomat told NatSec Daily.

In an interview at Kosovo’s embassy across from the National Cathedral in Washington, Foreign Minister DONIKA GËRVALLA-SCHWARZ warned that Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN’s territorial ambitions don’t stop at the Ukrainian border — and that Ukraine’s victory against Russia would ensure stability in the long-troubled Balkans.

“Putin's strategy is to keep the West distracted with various conflicts,” she said. “So another war in the Balkans would be very welcomed by Russia.”

Kosovo in particular is an alluring target for Putin, she added, because the country’s prosperity undermines his argument that the West cannot help former Eastern bloc countries. NATO and Washington are celebrated for stopping ethnic violence and genocide in the region following the collapse of Yugoslavia in the 1990s.

“Putin speaks every week about Kosovo,” she said. “It’s not about the geopolitical importance of Kosovo, but it is about the fact that Kosovo is a success story of the West, a success story of the United States of America, it’s a success story of NATO, a success story of the European Western countries.”
 

Soldiers in Ukraine say US-supplied tanks have made them targets for Russian strikes​

Story by Exclusive by Nick Paton Walsh, Mick Krever, Kosta Gak and Brice Laine, CNN

Ukrainian crews working on US-supplied Abrams tanks have told CNN of a series of the weaknesses and flaws with the armored vehicles, calling into doubt their utility on the war’s ever-changing frontlines. The donation was announced by US President Joe Biden as evidence of the United States’ “enduring and unflagging commitment to Ukraine.”

CNN journalists were the first reporters to see the M1 Abrams in Ukraine, at a location in the country’s east, where around six vehicles were visible, hiding in the foliage.

Crews trained in Germany said the vehicles – the US military’s main $10 million battle tank used in Iraq against Saddam Hussein’s forces and insurgents – lacked armor that could stop modern weapons.

“Its armor is not sufficient for this moment,” said one crew member, callsign Joker. “It doesn’t protect the crew. For real, today this is the war of drones. So now, when the tank rolls out, they always try to hit them.”

His colleague, Dnipro, added they are the “number one target.”

“Without defense, the crew doesn’t survive at the battlefield,” he said.

The crew showed CNN their attempts to affix active armor to one damaged tank. They used plates of plastic explosive that, when hit by a round, detonate and provide a protective counter-blast.

All 31 Abrams deployed to Ukraine are engaged near the frontline in the east, according to officials in the 47th Mechanised Brigade, who took receipt of them all. The Ukrainian request for Abrams, complex and heavy tanks, sparked significant debate in early 2023, as the American vehicle has a complex supply chain. Some versions even run on jet fuel.

Pentagon officials said in April that the Abrams were pulled back from the frontline due to the threat of Russian attack drones, although the 47th said some were still in action, despite the deficiencies that had materialized.

Much of the Ukrainian frontline is now dominated by the use of self-destructing attack drones, tiny and accurate devices that can swarm infantry and even cause significant damage to tanks. The advent of these so called First-Person Vision (FPV) drones, flown by soldiers wearing gaming goggles, has changed the nature of the war, limiting movement and introducing a new element of vulnerability to armored vehicles.

This Ukrainian crew have learned of the Abrams’ limitations the hard way, in pitched battles around the town of Avdiivka, which Russia finally took control of in February. A driver lost a leg when the armor was penetrated. Yet it is not just innovation that is hamstringing the tanks — they appear to have technical issues too.

One, parked under a tree, was almost immobile during CNN’s visit, due to an engine problem, the crew say, despite the vehicle having just been shipped in from Poland. They also complain of how, in rain or fog, condensation can fry the electronics inside the vehicle.

CNN has reached out to the Pentagon for comment.

Ammunition is also a problem, like elsewhere on the Ukrainian frontline. They say they seem to have the wrong type for the fight they are in.

“What we have is more for direct tank-to-tank fights, which happens very rarely,” Joker said. “Much more often we work as artillery. You need to take apart a tree-line or a building. We had a case when we fired 17 rounds into a house and it was still standing.”

The tank’s poor performance has been mocked by Russian analysts, dubbing them “empty tin cans.” One model was captured by Russian forces and, damaged, paraded in Red Square.

The Ukrainian crew expressed frustration the tanks were made for a NATO style of warfare, in which air power and artillery prepare the battlefield before tanks and infantry advance. Kyiv has long bemoaned its lack of artillery and air power.

“They would never do it,” Joker said, of NATO soldiers undertaking the same advances they make without air support. He switched to English to mimic a NATO soldier: “‘Call the aviation, call the artillery,’” he said. “We have no aviation and artillery. We have only tank. And it’s the problem.”


A spokesperson for the Ukrainian defense ministry told CNN that “Ukraine is now testing and improving equipment that was not initially prepared for our war.”

“We are asking all countries to support us with equipment of any technical capacity levels. We use all of it accordingly,” the spokesperson added.

Biden’s decision to supply the Abrams came after European allies pledged to send their own battle tanks in early 2023 ahead of Ukraine’s failed summer counteroffensive last year, a step that had been deemed unthinkable months earlier.

Kyiv’s allies have slowly swallowed the red lines of what equipment they once refused to supply. F-16s may arrive in Ukraine in the months ahead. Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s military commander, on Monday said he had signed initial paperwork to permit France to send military trainers into the country to try and reverse an urgent manpower problem on the frontlines. France’s defense ministry declined to confirm the plan, but said it, and other ideas, had long been under discussion. The move would mark a significant escalation in the West’s involvement in the war, now in its third year.


The Ukrainian defense ministry later appeared to tamp down those expectations, saying in a statement to CNN that it had “started internal paperwork to move forward when the decision is taken.”

For the Abrams crew, each delay in equipment or assistance costs the lives of friends. “I only have one question,” Joker said of US assistance. “Why is this taking so long and (comes) partially? We are losing time. It’s death to us.”
Seems to me Ukraine will have the same problem with fighter jets that they are having with the Abrams. They aren't fighting the way the U.S. would fight a war and they don't have the infrastructure to support their use.
 

Soldiers in Ukraine say US-supplied tanks have made them targets for Russian strikes​

Story by Exclusive by Nick Paton Walsh, Mick Krever, Kosta Gak and Brice Laine, CNN

Ukrainian crews working on US-supplied Abrams tanks have told CNN of a series of the weaknesses and flaws with the armored vehicles, calling into doubt their utility on the war’s ever-changing frontlines. The donation was announced by US President Joe Biden as evidence of the United States’ “enduring and unflagging commitment to Ukraine.”

CNN journalists were the first reporters to see the M1 Abrams in Ukraine, at a location in the country’s east, where around six vehicles were visible, hiding in the foliage.

Crews trained in Germany said the vehicles – the US military’s main $10 million battle tank used in Iraq against Saddam Hussein’s forces and insurgents – lacked armor that could stop modern weapons.

“Its armor is not sufficient for this moment,” said one crew member, callsign Joker. “It doesn’t protect the crew. For real, today this is the war of drones. So now, when the tank rolls out, they always try to hit them.”

His colleague, Dnipro, added they are the “number one target.”

“Without defense, the crew doesn’t survive at the battlefield,” he said.

The crew showed CNN their attempts to affix active armor to one damaged tank. They used plates of plastic explosive that, when hit by a round, detonate and provide a protective counter-blast.

All 31 Abrams deployed to Ukraine are engaged near the frontline in the east, according to officials in the 47th Mechanised Brigade, who took receipt of them all. The Ukrainian request for Abrams, complex and heavy tanks, sparked significant debate in early 2023, as the American vehicle has a complex supply chain. Some versions even run on jet fuel.

Pentagon officials said in April that the Abrams were pulled back from the frontline due to the threat of Russian attack drones, although the 47th said some were still in action, despite the deficiencies that had materialized.

Much of the Ukrainian frontline is now dominated by the use of self-destructing attack drones, tiny and accurate devices that can swarm infantry and even cause significant damage to tanks. The advent of these so called First-Person Vision (FPV) drones, flown by soldiers wearing gaming goggles, has changed the nature of the war, limiting movement and introducing a new element of vulnerability to armored vehicles.

This Ukrainian crew have learned of the Abrams’ limitations the hard way, in pitched battles around the town of Avdiivka, which Russia finally took control of in February. A driver lost a leg when the armor was penetrated. Yet it is not just innovation that is hamstringing the tanks — they appear to have technical issues too.

One, parked under a tree, was almost immobile during CNN’s visit, due to an engine problem, the crew say, despite the vehicle having just been shipped in from Poland. They also complain of how, in rain or fog, condensation can fry the electronics inside the vehicle.

CNN has reached out to the Pentagon for comment.

Ammunition is also a problem, like elsewhere on the Ukrainian frontline. They say they seem to have the wrong type for the fight they are in.

“What we have is more for direct tank-to-tank fights, which happens very rarely,” Joker said. “Much more often we work as artillery. You need to take apart a tree-line or a building. We had a case when we fired 17 rounds into a house and it was still standing.”

The tank’s poor performance has been mocked by Russian analysts, dubbing them “empty tin cans.” One model was captured by Russian forces and, damaged, paraded in Red Square.

The Ukrainian crew expressed frustration the tanks were made for a NATO style of warfare, in which air power and artillery prepare the battlefield before tanks and infantry advance. Kyiv has long bemoaned its lack of artillery and air power.

“They would never do it,” Joker said, of NATO soldiers undertaking the same advances they make without air support. He switched to English to mimic a NATO soldier: “‘Call the aviation, call the artillery,’” he said. “We have no aviation and artillery. We have only tank. And it’s the problem.”


A spokesperson for the Ukrainian defense ministry told CNN that “Ukraine is now testing and improving equipment that was not initially prepared for our war.”

“We are asking all countries to support us with equipment of any technical capacity levels. We use all of it accordingly,” the spokesperson added.

Biden’s decision to supply the Abrams came after European allies pledged to send their own battle tanks in early 2023 ahead of Ukraine’s failed summer counteroffensive last year, a step that had been deemed unthinkable months earlier.

Kyiv’s allies have slowly swallowed the red lines of what equipment they once refused to supply. F-16s may arrive in Ukraine in the months ahead. Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s military commander, on Monday said he had signed initial paperwork to permit France to send military trainers into the country to try and reverse an urgent manpower problem on the frontlines. France’s defense ministry declined to confirm the plan, but said it, and other ideas, had long been under discussion. The move would mark a significant escalation in the West’s involvement in the war, now in its third year.


The Ukrainian defense ministry later appeared to tamp down those expectations, saying in a statement to CNN that it had “started internal paperwork to move forward when the decision is taken.”

For the Abrams crew, each delay in equipment or assistance costs the lives of friends. “I only have one question,” Joker said of US assistance. “Why is this taking so long and (comes) partially? We are losing time. It’s death to us.”
Seems to me Ukraine will have the same problem with fighter jets that they are having with the Abrams. They aren't fighting the way the U.S. would fight a war and they don't have the infrastructure to support their use.
The Ukranians are, with support, getting the infrastructure in place. All the headlines are about pilots being trained but ground crews are being trained and bases prepped for them. Recently, they put the potential donation of Grippen's, a very capable multi-purpose fighter from Sweden, on the back burner so that they can focus on integrating the F-16's. The current fleet of Soviet era Migs and Sukhois are just not as capable as the F-16's and the availability of weapons for them to use is dwindling. They have gerry rigged ways for those jets to shoot off western missiles, one example which uses an iPad to use, is not efficient and has to be much less effective. The Ukrainians will not use the F-16's the way that NATO would but like the Abrams, it is more about the combined arms use that NATO would employ which the Ukrainians simply can not. The Ukrainians have shown themselves, over and over again, to be very inventive on how they use weapon systems to great effect in ways that NATO would never.

I do wonder about how much the introduction of F-16's will allow for Wild Weasel operations. For those that don't know, those are basically operations that jets go up baiting SAMs to to turn on and when they do HARM missiles (anti radiation missiles that go right at them very quickly) are launched and they get the hell out of dodge. The Russians have been losing more and more S400s which is putting pressure on their ability to cover the battleground. These are no where near as easy to replace as it is with tanks where you repair some old T-72 and roll it out.

I don't think the F-16's by themselves will be a game changer but it sure as heck will help the Ukrainians continue the fight.
 

Soldiers in Ukraine say US-supplied tanks have made them targets for Russian strikes​

Story by Exclusive by Nick Paton Walsh, Mick Krever, Kosta Gak and Brice Laine, CNN

Ukrainian crews working on US-supplied Abrams tanks have told CNN of a series of the weaknesses and flaws with the armored vehicles, calling into doubt their utility on the war’s ever-changing frontlines. The donation was announced by US President Joe Biden as evidence of the United States’ “enduring and unflagging commitment to Ukraine.”

CNN journalists were the first reporters to see the M1 Abrams in Ukraine, at a location in the country’s east, where around six vehicles were visible, hiding in the foliage.

Crews trained in Germany said the vehicles – the US military’s main $10 million battle tank used in Iraq against Saddam Hussein’s forces and insurgents – lacked armor that could stop modern weapons.

“Its armor is not sufficient for this moment,” said one crew member, callsign Joker. “It doesn’t protect the crew. For real, today this is the war of drones. So now, when the tank rolls out, they always try to hit them.”

His colleague, Dnipro, added they are the “number one target.”

“Without defense, the crew doesn’t survive at the battlefield,” he said.

The crew showed CNN their attempts to affix active armor to one damaged tank. They used plates of plastic explosive that, when hit by a round, detonate and provide a protective counter-blast.

All 31 Abrams deployed to Ukraine are engaged near the frontline in the east, according to officials in the 47th Mechanised Brigade, who took receipt of them all. The Ukrainian request for Abrams, complex and heavy tanks, sparked significant debate in early 2023, as the American vehicle has a complex supply chain. Some versions even run on jet fuel.

Pentagon officials said in April that the Abrams were pulled back from the frontline due to the threat of Russian attack drones, although the 47th said some were still in action, despite the deficiencies that had materialized.

Much of the Ukrainian frontline is now dominated by the use of self-destructing attack drones, tiny and accurate devices that can swarm infantry and even cause significant damage to tanks. The advent of these so called First-Person Vision (FPV) drones, flown by soldiers wearing gaming goggles, has changed the nature of the war, limiting movement and introducing a new element of vulnerability to armored vehicles.

This Ukrainian crew have learned of the Abrams’ limitations the hard way, in pitched battles around the town of Avdiivka, which Russia finally took control of in February. A driver lost a leg when the armor was penetrated. Yet it is not just innovation that is hamstringing the tanks — they appear to have technical issues too.

One, parked under a tree, was almost immobile during CNN’s visit, due to an engine problem, the crew say, despite the vehicle having just been shipped in from Poland. They also complain of how, in rain or fog, condensation can fry the electronics inside the vehicle.

CNN has reached out to the Pentagon for comment.

Ammunition is also a problem, like elsewhere on the Ukrainian frontline. They say they seem to have the wrong type for the fight they are in.

“What we have is more for direct tank-to-tank fights, which happens very rarely,” Joker said. “Much more often we work as artillery. You need to take apart a tree-line or a building. We had a case when we fired 17 rounds into a house and it was still standing.”

The tank’s poor performance has been mocked by Russian analysts, dubbing them “empty tin cans.” One model was captured by Russian forces and, damaged, paraded in Red Square.

The Ukrainian crew expressed frustration the tanks were made for a NATO style of warfare, in which air power and artillery prepare the battlefield before tanks and infantry advance. Kyiv has long bemoaned its lack of artillery and air power.

“They would never do it,” Joker said, of NATO soldiers undertaking the same advances they make without air support. He switched to English to mimic a NATO soldier: “‘Call the aviation, call the artillery,’” he said. “We have no aviation and artillery. We have only tank. And it’s the problem.”


A spokesperson for the Ukrainian defense ministry told CNN that “Ukraine is now testing and improving equipment that was not initially prepared for our war.”

“We are asking all countries to support us with equipment of any technical capacity levels. We use all of it accordingly,” the spokesperson added.

Biden’s decision to supply the Abrams came after European allies pledged to send their own battle tanks in early 2023 ahead of Ukraine’s failed summer counteroffensive last year, a step that had been deemed unthinkable months earlier.

Kyiv’s allies have slowly swallowed the red lines of what equipment they once refused to supply. F-16s may arrive in Ukraine in the months ahead. Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s military commander, on Monday said he had signed initial paperwork to permit France to send military trainers into the country to try and reverse an urgent manpower problem on the frontlines. France’s defense ministry declined to confirm the plan, but said it, and other ideas, had long been under discussion. The move would mark a significant escalation in the West’s involvement in the war, now in its third year.


The Ukrainian defense ministry later appeared to tamp down those expectations, saying in a statement to CNN that it had “started internal paperwork to move forward when the decision is taken.”

For the Abrams crew, each delay in equipment or assistance costs the lives of friends. “I only have one question,” Joker said of US assistance. “Why is this taking so long and (comes) partially? We are losing time. It’s death to us.”
Seems to me Ukraine will have the same problem with fighter jets that they are having with the Abrams. They aren't fighting the way the U.S. would fight a war and they don't have the infrastructure to support their use.
The Ukranians are, with support, getting the infrastructure in place. All the headlines are about pilots being trained but ground crews are being trained and bases prepped for them. Recently, they put the potential donation of Grippen's, a very capable multi-purpose fighter from Sweden, on the back burner so that they can focus on integrating the F-16's. The current fleet of Soviet era Migs and Sukhois are just not as capable as the F-16's and the availability of weapons for them to use is dwindling. They have gerry rigged ways for those jets to shoot off western missiles, one example which uses an iPad to use, is not efficient and has to be much less effective. The Ukrainians will not use the F-16's the way that NATO would but like the Abrams, it is more about the combined arms use that NATO would employ which the Ukrainians simply can not. The Ukrainians have shown themselves, over and over again, to be very inventive on how they use weapon systems to great effect in ways that NATO would never.

I do wonder about how much the introduction of F-16's will allow for Wild Weasel operations. For those that don't know, those are basically operations that jets go up baiting SAMs to to turn on and when they do HARM missiles (anti radiation missiles that go right at them very quickly) are launched and they get the hell out of dodge. The Russians have been losing more and more S400s which is putting pressure on their ability to cover the battleground. These are no where near as easy to replace as it is with tanks where you repair some old T-72 and roll it out.

I don't think the F-16's by themselves will be a game changer but it sure as heck will help the Ukrainians continue the fight.
I hope so. I wish we had more additional focus on getting them things they have more pressing use for, like bullets, shells, and APCs.
 

Soldiers in Ukraine say US-supplied tanks have made them targets for Russian strikes​

Story by Exclusive by Nick Paton Walsh, Mick Krever, Kosta Gak and Brice Laine, CNN

Ukrainian crews working on US-supplied Abrams tanks have told CNN of a series of the weaknesses and flaws with the armored vehicles, calling into doubt their utility on the war’s ever-changing frontlines. The donation was announced by US President Joe Biden as evidence of the United States’ “enduring and unflagging commitment to Ukraine.”

CNN journalists were the first reporters to see the M1 Abrams in Ukraine, at a location in the country’s east, where around six vehicles were visible, hiding in the foliage.

Crews trained in Germany said the vehicles – the US military’s main $10 million battle tank used in Iraq against Saddam Hussein’s forces and insurgents – lacked armor that could stop modern weapons.

“Its armor is not sufficient for this moment,” said one crew member, callsign Joker. “It doesn’t protect the crew. For real, today this is the war of drones. So now, when the tank rolls out, they always try to hit them.”

His colleague, Dnipro, added they are the “number one target.”

“Without defense, the crew doesn’t survive at the battlefield,” he said.

The crew showed CNN their attempts to affix active armor to one damaged tank. They used plates of plastic explosive that, when hit by a round, detonate and provide a protective counter-blast.

All 31 Abrams deployed to Ukraine are engaged near the frontline in the east, according to officials in the 47th Mechanised Brigade, who took receipt of them all. The Ukrainian request for Abrams, complex and heavy tanks, sparked significant debate in early 2023, as the American vehicle has a complex supply chain. Some versions even run on jet fuel.

Pentagon officials said in April that the Abrams were pulled back from the frontline due to the threat of Russian attack drones, although the 47th said some were still in action, despite the deficiencies that had materialized.

Much of the Ukrainian frontline is now dominated by the use of self-destructing attack drones, tiny and accurate devices that can swarm infantry and even cause significant damage to tanks. The advent of these so called First-Person Vision (FPV) drones, flown by soldiers wearing gaming goggles, has changed the nature of the war, limiting movement and introducing a new element of vulnerability to armored vehicles.

This Ukrainian crew have learned of the Abrams’ limitations the hard way, in pitched battles around the town of Avdiivka, which Russia finally took control of in February. A driver lost a leg when the armor was penetrated. Yet it is not just innovation that is hamstringing the tanks — they appear to have technical issues too.

One, parked under a tree, was almost immobile during CNN’s visit, due to an engine problem, the crew say, despite the vehicle having just been shipped in from Poland. They also complain of how, in rain or fog, condensation can fry the electronics inside the vehicle.

CNN has reached out to the Pentagon for comment.

Ammunition is also a problem, like elsewhere on the Ukrainian frontline. They say they seem to have the wrong type for the fight they are in.

“What we have is more for direct tank-to-tank fights, which happens very rarely,” Joker said. “Much more often we work as artillery. You need to take apart a tree-line or a building. We had a case when we fired 17 rounds into a house and it was still standing.”

The tank’s poor performance has been mocked by Russian analysts, dubbing them “empty tin cans.” One model was captured by Russian forces and, damaged, paraded in Red Square.

The Ukrainian crew expressed frustration the tanks were made for a NATO style of warfare, in which air power and artillery prepare the battlefield before tanks and infantry advance. Kyiv has long bemoaned its lack of artillery and air power.

“They would never do it,” Joker said, of NATO soldiers undertaking the same advances they make without air support. He switched to English to mimic a NATO soldier: “‘Call the aviation, call the artillery,’” he said. “We have no aviation and artillery. We have only tank. And it’s the problem.”


A spokesperson for the Ukrainian defense ministry told CNN that “Ukraine is now testing and improving equipment that was not initially prepared for our war.”

“We are asking all countries to support us with equipment of any technical capacity levels. We use all of it accordingly,” the spokesperson added.

Biden’s decision to supply the Abrams came after European allies pledged to send their own battle tanks in early 2023 ahead of Ukraine’s failed summer counteroffensive last year, a step that had been deemed unthinkable months earlier.

Kyiv’s allies have slowly swallowed the red lines of what equipment they once refused to supply. F-16s may arrive in Ukraine in the months ahead. Oleksandr Syrsky, Ukraine’s military commander, on Monday said he had signed initial paperwork to permit France to send military trainers into the country to try and reverse an urgent manpower problem on the frontlines. France’s defense ministry declined to confirm the plan, but said it, and other ideas, had long been under discussion. The move would mark a significant escalation in the West’s involvement in the war, now in its third year.


The Ukrainian defense ministry later appeared to tamp down those expectations, saying in a statement to CNN that it had “started internal paperwork to move forward when the decision is taken.”

For the Abrams crew, each delay in equipment or assistance costs the lives of friends. “I only have one question,” Joker said of US assistance. “Why is this taking so long and (comes) partially? We are losing time. It’s death to us.”
Seems to me Ukraine will have the same problem with fighter jets that they are having with the Abrams. They aren't fighting the way the U.S. would fight a war and they don't have the infrastructure to support their use.
The Ukranians are, with support, getting the infrastructure in place. All the headlines are about pilots being trained but ground crews are being trained and bases prepped for them. Recently, they put the potential donation of Grippen's, a very capable multi-purpose fighter from Sweden, on the back burner so that they can focus on integrating the F-16's. The current fleet of Soviet era Migs and Sukhois are just not as capable as the F-16's and the availability of weapons for them to use is dwindling. They have gerry rigged ways for those jets to shoot off western missiles, one example which uses an iPad to use, is not efficient and has to be much less effective. The Ukrainians will not use the F-16's the way that NATO would but like the Abrams, it is more about the combined arms use that NATO would employ which the Ukrainians simply can not. The Ukrainians have shown themselves, over and over again, to be very inventive on how they use weapon systems to great effect in ways that NATO would never.

I do wonder about how much the introduction of F-16's will allow for Wild Weasel operations. For those that don't know, those are basically operations that jets go up baiting SAMs to to turn on and when they do HARM missiles (anti radiation missiles that go right at them very quickly) are launched and they get the hell out of dodge. The Russians have been losing more and more S400s which is putting pressure on their ability to cover the battleground. These are no where near as easy to replace as it is with tanks where you repair some old T-72 and roll it out.

I don't think the F-16's by themselves will be a game changer but it sure as heck will help the Ukrainians continue the fight.
I hope so. I wish we had more additional focus on getting them things they have more pressing use for, like bullets, shells, and APCs.
Artillery ammunition is the biggest need but a big problem for that is just sheer production capability.

The US has a goal of being able to produce 100K shells a month by 2026. I think we are in the neighborhood of about 36K (IIRC) currently. New production facilities are going up in Texas which is supposed to get them up to around 60K. The goal is 80K by the end of next year.

To give an idea of how badly we are behind on that.... the Russians produce 250K shells a month currently. I think all of Europe produces about 200K annually currently.

One thing I wish we would do more of is start emptying out the Sierra Army Depot of stored weapon systems. Have our mechanics get to work (good experience, training, no?) and then ship these unused weapon systems to the Ukrainians. I haven't seen any indication that we really are tapping this currently. The Air Force boneyard would not be as effective as it would take a lot to train Ukrainians to use (see the F-16's) but these are things the Ukrainians already know and are using... Abrams, Bradleys, M113's, Humvees, etc.
 
Zelenskyy on Gripen: Training should begin now

President Zelenskyy said earlier in the day that he would personally like to see Ukrainian pilots already start training to fly the Swedish JAS Gripen. This is despite the fact that Sweden will not send any of these to Ukraine in the near future.

"If we start training only after the F-16 planes have been delivered, it will be in at least a year. The most practical thing would be for us to have the opportunity to train with Swedish aircraft in parallel with the F-16," Zelenskyj said in response to SVT Nyheter's question during the press conference in Stockholm in the afternoon.


Today, Ukraine 🇺🇦 struck the territory of Russia with Neptune Long Range Missiles, specifically the Port of Kavkaz in Russia going to Kerch, reports the General Staff

1. Oil Terminal (Kavkaz, Krasnodar)
2. A 2nd Oil Terminal (Krasnodar)
3. Ferry Crossing to Kerch (Krasnodar)


Russian influence operations are actively focusing on exploiting nuclear escalation fears in Europe. US policy barring longer-range strikes inside Russia has not changed however.
The recent policy change permits Ukraine to utilize US-supplied artillery & rocket launchers to target Russian forces just over the border from Kharkiv, as well as to intercept Russian missiles aimed at Ukrainian territory but it's not a carte blanche to hit other targets in 🇷🇺.


The German government is now allowing Ukraine as well to fire at military targets on Russian territory with military equipment supplied by Germany.

https://spiegel.de/politik/deutschl...b-4de8-9927-086328919bdd?sara_ref=re-so-tw-sh via
@derspiegel
This means that Ukrainians can now fire with Panzerhaubitze 2000s as well as Mars-II multiple rocket launchers at targets across the border.


Germany now allows Ukraine to use German-supplied weapons for strikes on the territory of Russia, Der Spiegel reported.

Presumably, the permission is limited to the areas around Kharkiv, similarly to the approval given by the US.


⚡️ The Netherlands would not object to Ukraine using Dutch-supplied F-16 fighter jets to strike targets inside Russia as a means of self-defense, Dutch Foreign Minister Hanke Bruins Slot said on May 31.


The total number of Russian casualties (killed and wounded) since the start of the war in February 2022 has now likely reached 500,000. Russian losses have continued at a high level in 2024, and in May average Russian personnel casualties were over 1,200 per day – the highest reported since the start of the war.

The elevated casualty rate is highly likely a reflection of Russia’s ongoing attritional offensive which is being conducted across a wide front. It is highly likely that most Russian forces receive only limited training, and they are unable to carry out complex offensive operations. As a result, Russia employs small-scale but costly wave attacks in an effort to weaken Ukrainian defences.

Russia continues to recruit additional forces to sustain this approach. However, the need to continuously replenish front line personnel will almost certainly continue to limit Russia’s ability to generate higher capability units.


Norway's Finnmark region:
Intensified GPS jamming now seen practically every day is a side effect of Russia’s self-protection of Kola bases.
 

Today: Guidance goes into effect. DoD officially tells Ukraine can use artillery and GMLRs to target Russian military targets across the border in the Belgorod region, including command and control, arms depots, Russian troops, Russian artillery, Russian missiles.


Ukraine asked the U.S. to make this policy change only after Russia’s offensive on Kharkiv began this month, the official added. All the people were granted anonymity to discuss internal decisions that haven’t been announced.

In the last few days, the U.S. made the decision to allow Ukraine “flexibility” to defend itself from attacks on the border near Kharkiv, the second U.S. official said.

In effect, Ukraine can now use American-provided weapons, such as rockets and rocket launchers, to shoot down launched Russian missiles heading toward Kharkiv, at troops massing just over the Russian border near the city, or Russian bombers launching bombs toward Ukrainian territory. But the official said Ukraine cannot use those weapons to hit civilian infrastructure or launch long-range missiles, such as the Army Tactical Missile System, to hit military targets deep inside Russia.

Lithuania Says It Will Train Troops in Ukraine if Needed

NATO boss seeks 40 bln euros per year for Ukraine military aid, source says

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg will ask allies to pledge a minimum of 40 billion euros ($43.37 billion) annually to fund military aid for Ukraine, an alliance source told Reuters on Thursday, as NATO foreign ministers gathered for talks in Prague.
He has not publicly proposed a figure before but NATO officials previously floated a sum of 100 billion euros over five years, or 20 billion euros annually.


The center of gravity of the fighting is in the Donetsk area where the Russian offensive remains intensive. "They [Russians] have managed to expand the territory they control through limited tactical advances."

Battle activity is concentrated in the Ocheretyne area and around the Karlovsky reservoir in Pervomaisk, as well as to put pressure on Chasiv Yar. "Despite considerable offensive pushes, Ukraine's defensive efforts have been relatively successful, and Russian forces have not achieved a single major operational goal there," Vendla noted.

There has been no change in Zaporizhzhia Oblast in the south. Ukraine is also holding on to its bridgehead on the other side of the Dnipro.


🧵Why I'm skeptical that the Armavir radar had any role in tracking Ukrainian drones/aircraft.

This graph shows how the altitude of the radar's horizon changes with distance from the radar. Only objects ABOVE the horizon are potentially visible. (1/n)
In calculating this curve, I'm accounting for the curvature of the Earth and the two-degree minimum inclination of the radar (per @russianforces). A non-zero minimum inclination is standard for ballistic missile early warning radars. (2/n)
Technically, this curve is only accurate for locations perpendicular to the radar face. For locations off to the side--like Ukraine--the horizon is even HIGHER.

Note the scale in km. #notsorry (3/n)
Even at Novorossiysk (a Russian town near Crimea), the horizon is at 14 km (~45,000 ft, if you must). To my knowledge, that's higher altitude than any Ukrainian drone and close to the Reaper's maximum altitude. (4/n)
By the Kerch Strait, the horizon is at ~22 km (72,000 ft), i.e. about the altitude of a cruising U-2. By Sevastapol, it's about 50 km (164,000 ft)... (5/n)
There may be additional reasons why the Armavir radar might not detect drones. @russianforces, for example, quotes a minimum altitude of 150 km--but that may be a software issue that can be addressed. (6/n)
But the radar horizon is a hard limit imposed by physics (i.e. the Earth is curved and radar looks slightly upward). Contrary to some reporting, the Armavir radar is NOT an over-the-horizon radar. It cannot be modified into an OTH radar--totally the wrong wavelength. (7/n)
To be very clear, the Armavir radar COULD detect ballistic missiles (ATACAMS for now) fired over its area of coverage, which includes a slice of southern Ukraine (including Crimea). So it likely had a role in the conflict--just not in drone/aircraft detection. (8/n)
 
Money, not capacity, main issue for ammo supplies to Ukraine, Czech official says

The slow pace of donor contributions poses the main obstacle to shipping desperately needed ammunition to Ukraine faster, a leading official in the Czech drive to supply Kyiv said on Thursday.
Speaking on the sidelines of a NATO meeting in Prague, Tomas Kopecny said Ukraine would need large-calibre ammunition worth 7 billion euros to 10 billion euros ($7.6 billion to $10.8 billion) annually, equal to about 200,000 rounds per month.
That would get it on par with Russia, which is also sourcing supplies in some of the same markets, Kopecny said.
The Czech government's envoy for Ukraine and one of the key figures behind the Czech-led initiative to raise contributions from allies to supply Ukraine said there was a single-digit million number of shells available on the global market over a one-year horizon.
"The pace of deliveries depends on a single thing," Kopecny said. "Availability of financial resources."

Kopecny said the Czechs so far had payments or firm commitments for around 1.7 billion euros from 15 donor countries, which was enough for half a million rounds to be delivered by the end of the year.
About 20 countries have pledged to take part in the Czech initiative, but only five have so far delivered payments, he said - Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Portugal and Canada, with Germany leading the pack.
"We have the five who are dedicated enough and fast enough, then we have 10 who are dedicated enough, have clear commitment ... and then we have a few who have not shown much of an action," he said.
Kopecny said the Czechs had arranged shipping of 1.3 million artillery rounds to Ukraine from the start of the war until the February 2024 announcement of the current initiative, showing the pledges made since were somewhat underwhelming.
The ammunition is sought on a global market often open to all sides, he said. Speed is therefore essential to make prepayments - with other traders or even Russia competing for them.
Kopecny reiterated Ukraine would get the first shipment under the umbrella of the Czech initiative in June, and said the amount would be between 50,000 and 100,000 rounds.

Czech Republic to seek more Ukraine ammunition contributions, minister says

The Czech Republic will at some point seek more contributions to its initiative to source ammunition supplies for Ukraine from around the world, Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky said on Friday, adding that NATO needed to send Russia a strong message.
Prague said this week that it had contributions of more than 1.6 billion euros and that could cover half a million shells this year for Ukraine as it fights Russia's invasion.


Drones operated by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) destroyed a Russian Nebo-SVU long-range radar system in Crimea overnight on May 30, a source in Ukrainian intelligence services told the Kyiv Independent on May 31.

The system, worth around $100 million, was positioned near Armiansk, a town in the north of the occupied Crimean peninsula, the source said.

According to the source, the radar was monitoring a 380-kilometer-long (around 235 miles) sector of the front and helped to protect Russian military facilities in Crimea.

After the attack, satellite intelligence recorded that the radar was shut down and has not been brought back online since then, the source said.

"This operation 'blinded' Russian air defenses on a large segment of the front," the source said.
 

Russian Telegram channel admits that up to 50% of Russian UAV and FPV losses were due to EW fratricide given lack of communication and coordination between units

On the ground video: With Ukrainian forces halting Russia's Kharkiv offensive


Ukrainian forces reportedly mounted a large scale missile attack into Russia’s Belgorod Oblast tonight, just across the border from Kharkiv.

This comes roughly 24 hours after the US approved the use of US-supplied weapons against Russian targets in the area.


Loud explosions are heard in Russia's Belgorod as Ukraine reportedly conducts a large-scale attack. Russian ADs are also engaging targets.


Around 40 explosions have been heard in Belgorod now, likely due to Ukrainian 🇺🇦 attacks, according to Russian sources


Long video from Zala showing Lancet loitering munition strikes this month, many of which occurred in Kharkiv Oblast. 9/


"Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his team watched with alarm as Russian forces began making progress on the battlefield and, in mid-April, began amassing on the Russian side of the border near Kharkiv. Austin and his team became concerned that Moscow could capture the city. The Pentagon chief began discussing with his team the 'military utility' of allowing the Ukrainians to attack Russian targets across the border to defend against Moscow’s attacks in the Kharkiv region, according to a DOD official."
@laraseligman @nahaltoosi @ErinBanco



⚡️The U.S. gave Ukraine permission to use American weapons to strike targets in Russia near both Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts, Michael Carpenter, senior director for Europe at the U.S. National Security Council, told the TSN news program on May 31.


I've spent the day with a member of a Kharkiv based military unit that is involved in the fighting in northern Kharkiv Oblast.

I asked what the impact on the Russian offensive would've been if U.S. restrictions had been lifted earlier.

The answer? It would've been impossible.
The Ukrainians knew exactly where Russian troops were massing, knew exactly where Russian logistics and artillery bases were sited.

They were virtually all in range of M142 HIMARS firing GMLRS rockets. But as we know, they couldn't engage, and the rest is now history.
 
A T-54 has been spotted on the battlefield. (or another.... I am not sure if the other sightings were confirmed)

For those that do not know... this is a WWII tank design basically, first introduced in 1946 of the first protype design put in serial production with 'modernized versions' in the 50's. It was replaced by the T-62 in the very early 80's.
 

Russia continues adding barriers around the Crimean bridge to defend against Ukraine’s naval drones.


Speaking inside his presidential headquarters, Zelenskiy made clear he wanted to use long-range weapons such as the UK-made Storm Shadow missiles. He said that, despite reports to the contrary, the UK had not given “100% permission” to do so. Thursday’s shift is unlikely to change the position either.
In reality, Downing Street waits on the Americans, Zelenskiy suggested. “We raised this issue twice. We did not get confirmation from him [David Cameron, the foreign secretary],” he said.

A final decision by the UK and other partners depended on “consensus”, with the position in Washington being crucial, he suggested. “You know how it works,” he said.


As Ukraine’s stocks of artillery shells have dwindled, its army’s reliance on drones has grown. These are able to deliver ammunition with great precision over long distances—provided they can maintain connections with gps satellites (so they know where they are) and their operators (so they know what to do). Such communication signals can be jammed, however, and Russia’s electronic warfare, as signals scrambling is known, is fearsomely effective. With large numbers of its drones in effect blinded, Ukraine’s drone technologists have been forced to get creative.
Enter Eagle Eyes, a remarkable software package for drones. Developed by Ukraine’s special forces, it allows drones to navigate by machine sight alone, with no need for outside input. Using artificial-intelligence algorithms, the software compares live video of the terrain below with an on-board map stitched together from photographs and video previously collected by reconnaissance aircraft. This allows for drones to continue with their missions even after being jammed.
Eagle Eyes has also been trained to recognise specific ground-based targets, including tanks, troop carriers, missile launchers and attack helicopters. The software can then release bombs, or crash-dive, without a human operator’s command.
“Bingo for us,” says a captain in White Eagle, a special-forces corps that is using and further developing the technology. The software has been programmed to target jamming stations as a priority, says the captain, who requested anonymity. Russia’s vaunted s-400 air-defence batteries are priority number two.
Optical navigation, as this approach to guidance is known, has a long history. An early version was incorporated in America’s Tomahawk cruise missiles, for example, first fired in anger during Operation Desert Storm in 1991. But lightweight, inexpensive optical navigation for small drones is new. In the spring of last year Eagle Eyes was being tested in combat by just three special-forces teams, each with two or three drone handlers. Today Eagle Eyes is cheap enough for kamikaze drones and is in wide use, says Valeriy Borovyk, commander of a White Eagle unit fighting in Ukraine’s south. With a range of about 60km, the system also guides fixed-wing drones that have struck energy infrastructure in Russia, he says.
 

Russia launched a large-scale missile and drone attack — the most extensive in more than three weeks — against Ukraine overnight, damaging the country's power system, Ukrainian officials said on Saturday.

The strike damaged equipment at facilities in five regions across Ukraine, according to national grid operator Ukrenergo.

Ukraine's air force reported that its air defenses shot down 35 of the 53 missiles and 46 of the 47 attack drones launched by Moscow in the overnight attack.


The latest blows were struck on Friday, when a joint Ukrainian navy and army operation hit a ferry crossing and oil terminal at the port of Kavkaz, located on the Russian side of the Kerch Strait that divides Crimea from Russia, Ukraine’s general staff said in a statement.

Hours earlier, Ukrainians hit the Crimean side of the Kerch ferry crossing — damaging two rail ferries, the Avanguard and the Conro Trader, that are crucial to Russia's ability to keep Crimea supplied.

The Kerch Strait Bridge has been significantly damaged after a series of Ukrainian attacks in 2022 and 2023, leaving it unable to take heavy train traffic. That means Russia cannot use it for military logistics like transporting heavy armored vehicles, Ukrainian navy spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk told POLITICO.

That is forcing Russia to rely on road and rail links across occupied Ukraine — which puts trains and trucks into easier range of Ukrainian attack.

“Considering the fact that the railway line Russians are building through the occupied territories of Ukraine is not finished yet, this civil ferry was their army’s main logistics route,” Pletenchuk said. “Their sea logistics is also long gone after Ukraine destroyed four and damaged five of their landing ships,” he added.


The attack is the latest stage of Ukraine’s complex operation aimed at making Russia's hold over Crimea untenable. Besides targeting logistics, Ukrainians have used marine drones and coastal missiles to destroy or damage at least 27 Russian warships and one submarine. Kyiv has also attacked Russian airfields and naval bases, forcing Moscow to move its fleet east along the Black Sea coast to the Russian port of Novorossiysk.

The peninsula's air defenses have also been degraded with constant attacks.

“As long as the Russian occupiers are in the Ukrainian Crimea, something will periodically explode there,” Pletenchuk said.
 
The Russian economy is laying the foundation for future disaster in order to keep the war effort going and reduce the pain on civilians. I can't say when but this will have dramatic coming due in future years.
 

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