*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (4 Viewers)

[Don't Toews Me]

Poll: More and more Russians think a nuclear strike on Ukraine is justified

In polling released on July 4, 10% of respondents said they believed such an attack could "definitely" be justified, while 24% said "probably."

kyivindependent.com

One in three Russians believe a nuclear strike against Ukraine would be justified, according to research from the Levada Center, a Russian independent polling organization.

In polling released on July 4, 10% of respondents said they believed such an attack could "definitely" be justified, while 24% said "probably."

The figures, collected in June 2024, had increased by 5 percentage points over the past year.

While a majority of respondents – 52% – are against the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, this is a decrease from 56% in April 2023.
The polling found those who approved of a nuclear strikes tended to be older and got their news from Russian state media.

Those against were younger and tended to get their news from YouTube.

Russian troops push back Ukraine’s underequipped soldiers

Despite recently announced security deals and aid packages Ukrainian troops are still struggling to stop Russian frontline push.

www.politico.eu

Ukrainian forces are pulling back along parts of the frontline under fierce Russian pressure; Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy blamed the difficult situation on a lack of weapons for his soldiers.

That's likely to increase pressure from Kyiv during next week's NATO Washington summit for its allies to speed up arms deliveries.

“This is not a stalemate, but a problematic situation," Zelenskyy told Bloomberg on Thursday. "A problem can be solved if there are tools and desire. We have the desire, but the tools have not arrived. We have brigades without weapons. We have 14 brigades that do not have the appropriate weapons that have already been voted on and talked about."
He added that weapons "are coming slowly, unfortunately. Today we need to protect what we have. We will launch offensive action when we are ready. When the weapon arrives ... and it is not there yet.”

Ukrainian Army Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi also pointed to the lack of well-trained and motivated troops as a key problem. However, Zelenskyy argued that the situation with troops "is much better than it was three months ago."

Ukrainian frontline open-source investigators from the Deep State project spotted Russian troops advancing in the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions. Kremlin forces managed to gain ground over the past two weeks after they launched a new offensive against the coal-mining town of Toretsk.

“The active line of the front has grown,” Syrskyi said in a statement earlier this week.

“Fighting with the enemy continues near Toretsk. The occupiers unsuccessfully attacked 18 times near the nearby villages of Pivnichne and New York. As of this morning the enemy launched 30 attacks near the same settlements,” Nazar Voloshyn, a Ukrainian army spokesperson, told POLITICO.

Two days ago, Ukrainian forces had to withdraw to the other side of a canal running through the outskirts of the key town of Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region.

“It was impractical to hold the Canal neighborhood where the enemy entered because the positions of our troops there were destroyed, so it was decided to move to more protected and better-prepared positions,” Voloshyn told Ukrainian TV on Thursday.

The Ukrainian position was made untenable thanks to pulverizing attacks by Russian glide bombs, the press service of King Danylo's 24th mechanized brigade told POLITICO on Friday.

Russians have been pounding Ukrainian positions with glide bombs, dropping 111 in the last day in addition to more than 4,000 artillery strikes, the general staff reported on Friday.

If Chasiv Yar is captured, Russian forces will be able to launch an offensive against the next series of Ukrainian strongholds guarding their last foothold in the Donetsk region.

Russians have been storming Chasiv Yar for more than six months and, despite the retreat, they have still not taken the town, Voloshyn added. He said that Ukrainian troops have prepared defenses on the other side of the canal.

 

[Dezbelief]

A workshop at a General Dynamics plant explodes in the United States - Militarnyi

An explosion occurred at the General Dynamics plant in Arkansas, which produces ammunition and Javelin missiles

mil.in.ua

 

[Orange&Blue]

A workshop at a General Dynamics plant explodes in the United States - Militarnyi

An explosion occurred at the General Dynamics plant in Arkansas, which produces ammunition and Javelin missiles

mil.in.ua

hmmm

The fact this is the only current plant in production is shameful (yes, i know they are bringing more on to support ukraine).

FBI/others need to take a close look at this.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russia steps up pressure to block the transfer of F-16s to Ukraine

In the space of a few days, several large-scale strikes have hit Ukrainian bases, according to reports corroborated by both Russian and Western sources. First at Myrhorod, on July 1 and 2, in the Poltava region of central Ukraine, and then at Dolgintsevo air base, in the Dnipro region, located 80 kilometers from the front lines, according to a July 4 Russian defense ministry statement. Moscow claimed that at least six fighter jets had been destroyed. The Ukrainians have not denied these losses, although they have sought to downplay them.
This was not the first time that the Russians had targeted Ukrainian air bases. In recent months, however, their air campaigns had been concentrated on the country's energy infrastructure, to the extent that Ukrainians have already become concerned about the winter, as their access to heating and electricity looks to be even more limited than in previous years. According to a Western military source, the recent strikes have reflected Russia's desire to "flex its muscles to make the Ukrainians and their supporters think twice at a pivotal moment."

In Ukraine, the Russian army's gradual seizure of the Donbas accelerates

The effective withdrawal had taken place the day before – after all the bridges spanning the canal separating the center of Chasiv Yar from the besieged district had been destroyed, making it too dangerous for the city's defenders to even obtain supplies. The Ukrainian defense line is now on the west bank of the canal. This 10-meter-wide wet cut represents a significant obstacle for a Russian army that has so far shown limited ability to resolve this type of tactical challenge.
"I think we can hold this line for a long time because I don't see how they could cross the channel, other than by plugging it with their bodies," said Oleksandr, a commander of a combat drone unit, by telephone from Chasiv Yar. As he is not authorized to speak to the media – and neither are the other soldiers quoted in the article – the officer asked to not reveal his full identity.
The main task is to use suicide drones and bomber drones to destroy any enemy vehicle within a 12-kilometer radius. "We force the Russians to approach the front line on foot for 12 kilometers, which makes them very tired and reduces the weaponry they can carry." This did not prevent the enemy from attacking "without respite" and at the cost of "losses far in excess of our own," said the commander.

Thanks to its elevated position, Chasiv Yar, which had a population of 12,000 before the large-scale invasion, forms a lock blocking the Russian offensive towards the towns of Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, which the Kremlin has been trying in vain to seize since 2022. "The enemy is achieving its goal of stabilizing the front line along the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas canal," said Vyacheslav, commander of a reconnaissance company, contacted by telephone. "I don't think they'll be able to cross the canal, on the other hand, they'll strive to control the entire eastern bank," said the officer, who has been fighting since 2014.

Ukrainian air force commander says Russian military duped by realistic models

Ukraine's air force commander said on Saturday his forces had duped Russian troops into deploying missiles against sophisticated models put in place to look like military targets.
Commander Mykola Oleshchuk, writing on the Telegram messaging app, said the models depicted fighter aircraft and a surface-to-air missile battery. They were put in place at an airfield near the central city of Kriviy Rih and a district of the Black Sea port of Odesa.
A video attached to the post, described as footage from a Russian reconnaissance drone, showed what Oleshchuk said were Russian Iskander missiles attacking the depictions.
"Air force personnel conducted passive defence measures!" Oleshchuk wrote.
"Thank you to everyone who helped with the top-quality mock-ups of aircraft and SAM systems. The enemy now has fewer Iskander missiles and more mock-ups will be delivered."
Oleshchuk said he had gone public with the deception "as an exception, to show the public that not everything is straightforward."

How many Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine?

Four charts illustrate a grim new milestone

www.economist.com

These data do not include Ukrainians recruited by Russia from occupied territories. Nor do they include Russian soldiers who have been severely wounded and are unable to return to battle. Our rough calculations, based on leaked documents from America’s defence department, suggest that probably around three to four Russian soldiers are wounded for every one killed in battle. That would mean that between 462,000 and 728,000 Russian soldiers were out of action by mid-June—more than Russia’s estimated invading force in February 2022. (French and British officials estimate that around 500,000 Russians had been severely injured or killed by May.)

Our third chart shows the effect of these losses on Russia’s demography. The greatest losses have been among those aged between 35 and 39, 27,000 of whom are estimated to have been killed between February 2022 and June 2024. But as a percentage of Russia’s male population, losses of those aged between 45 and 49 have been most severe. The latest estimates suggest that roughly 2% of all Russian men aged between 20 and 50 may have been either killed or severely wounded in Ukraine since the start of the full-scale war.

Kyiv restored two-thirds of its generating capacities after Russian missile attacks, official says

The Russian strikes damaged more than half of the city's generating capacity, Deputy Head of the Kyiv City State Administration said.

kyivindependent.com

Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, has restored two-thirds of its own generating capacities lost due to recent Russian attacks, Deputy Head of the Kyiv City State Administration Petro Pantelieiev said on July 6.

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Maps showing additional Russian advances on the Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Kupiansk fronts.

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Ukraine has apparently redeployed forces to the Toretsk direction to contain against Russian advances there.

In these videos posted in recent days, you can see a tank from the 32nd Mechanized Brigade in Pivnichne; artillery fire, drone strikes, and an APC and tank from the 95th Air Assault Brigade in Pivnichne and Druzhba; and a Bradley IFV from the 425th "Skala" Separate Assault Battalion in Niu-York.

Due to its shortage of combat forces, Ukraine has to rely on a "firefighting" approach, rushing more capable units to stabilize threatened areas. This was also the case during the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka and Russia's recent Kharkiv offensive.

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Ukrainian drone strike on a large Russian ammunition depot in the Voronezh region.

 

[Chadstroma]

Destruction of either a S-400 or maybe even a S-500 system by Ukrainian ATACMS.

 

[Dezbelief]

In a diplomatic quirk, Russia chairs a UN meeting decrying its strike on a Ukraine kids' hospital

U.N. Security Council members are confronting Russia over a missile strike that destroyed part of Ukraine’s largest children’s hospital.

apnews.com

In a diplomatic quirk, Russia chairs a UN meeting decrying its strike on a Ukraine kids’ hospital.

UNITED NATIONS (AP) — U.N. Security Council members confronted Russia on Tuesday over a missile strike the previous day that destroyed part of Ukraine’s largest children’s hospital, pouring out condemnations at an emergency meeting chaired by Moscow’s own ambassador.

Russia denies responsibility for the strike at the hospital, where at least two staffers were killed.

France and Ecuador asked for the session at the Security Council, but Russia led it as the current holder of the council’s rotating presidency, putting Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia on the receiving end of the criticism.

“Mr. President, please stop this war. It has been going on for too long,” Slovenian Ambassador Samuel Zbogar appealed.

U.S. Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield told colleagues that they were there “because Russia, a permanent member of the Security Council, current rotational president of the Security Council, attacked a children’s hospital.”

“Even uttering that phrase sends a chill down my spine,” she added.

Nebenzia characterized the slew of criticism as “verbal gymnastics” from countries trying to protect Ukraine’s government. He reiterated Moscow’s denials of responsibility for the hospital attack, insisting it was hit by a Ukrainian air defense rocket.

Research expert tells UN it has 'irrefutably' established missile debris in Ukraine is North Korean


“If this had been a Russian strike, there would have been nothing left of the building,” Nebenzia said, adding that “all the children and most of the adults would have been killed, and not wounded.”

The strike on the Okhmatdyt children’s hospital was part of a massive daytime barrage in multiple cities, including the capital of Kyiv. Officials said at least 42 people were killed. The attack also damaged Ukraine’s main specialist hospital for women and hit key energy infrastructure.

At Okhmatdyt, “the ground shook and the walls trembled. Both children and adults screamed and cried from fear, and the wounded from pain,” cardiac surgeon and anesthesiologist Dr. Volodymyr Zhovnir told the Security Council by video from Kyiv. “It was a real hell.”

Later, he heard people crying out for help from beneath the rubble. Most of the over 600 young patients had been moved to bomb shelters, except those in surgery, Zhovnir said. He said over 300 people were injured, including eight children, and two adults died, one of them a young doctor.

Acting U.N. humanitarian chief Joyce Msuya stressed to the Security Council that intentionally attacking a hospital is a war crime. She called Monday’s strikes “part of a deeply concerning pattern of systematic attacks harming health care and other civilian infrastructure across Ukraine.”

Since Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the U.N. World Health Organization has verified 1,878 attacks affecting health care facilities, personnel, transport, supplies and patients, she said.

Even against that backdrop, several council members pronounced Monday’s strike shocking.

British Ambassador Barbara Woodward called it “cowardly depravity.” Ecuadorian envoy José De La Gasca described it as “particularly intolerable.” To Slovenia’s Zbogar, it was “another low in this war of aggression.”





Acting U.N. humanitarian chief Joyce Msuya stressed to the Security Council that intentionally attacking a hospital is a war crime. She called Monday’s strikes “part of a deeply concerning pattern of systematic attacks harming health care and other civilian infrastructure across Ukraine.”

Since Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, the U.N. World Health Organization has verified 1,878 attacks affecting health care facilities, personnel, transport, supplies and patients, she said.

Even against that backdrop, several council members pronounced Monday’s strike shocking.

British Ambassador Barbara Woodward called it “cowardly depravity.” Ecuadorian envoy José De La Gasca described it as “particularly intolerable.” To Slovenia’s Zbogar, it was “another low in this war of aggression.”


Woodward and some others reiterated longstanding calls for Russia to withdraw its troops from Ukraine. But some nations with closer ties to Moscow continued to send a more muted message.

Chinese deputy Ambassador Geng Shuang, expressed concern about the loss of civilian lives and infrastructure but urged both sides to exercise “rationality and restraint” and “show political will, meet each other halfway and start peace talks.”

Russia insists that it doesn’t attack civilian targets in Ukraine despite abundant evidence to the contrary, including in AP’s reporting.

Earlier Tuesday in Geneva, Danielle Bell, who heads a U.N. team monitoring human rights in Ukraine, said the hospital likely was struck by a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile.

At the U.N. headquarters, Ukrainian Ambassador Sergiy Kyslytsya showed the Security Council photos of what his country asserts were fragments showing the projectile’s Russian origin, plus a map purportedly showing a missile’s path from Russian territory and, via a sharp turn, to the children’s hospital.

Yesterday, Russia deliberately targeted perhaps the most vulnerable and defenseless group in any society: children with cancer and other life-threatening illnesses,” Kyslytsya said.

Kyslytsya, whose country isn’t on the 15-member council, blasted Nebenzia for occupying the president’s seat after the bloodshed.

“In accordance with the traditions of the council presidency, and purely as the president of the council,” Nebenzia drily replied, “I am compelled to thank Ukraine for their statement.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine’s first F-16s will see combat this summer, officials say

The first American-made F-16 fighter jets committed to Ukraine are being transferred and are expected to take to the skies this summer, U.S. and European officials announced Wednesday, saying the advanced warplanes soon will provide another tool for Kyiv’s beleaguered defense in the face of relentless Russian attacks.

First F-16 Jet Fighters on Their Way to Ukraine, U.S. and Allies Say

The Danish and Dutch governments have begun transferring the aircraft to Kyiv, according to a statement by President Biden, Dutch Prime Minister **** Schoof, and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. The Dutch have promised an initial batch of 24 warplanes, while Denmark has said it would send 19.

“The transfer process for these F-16s is now under way,” according to the statement, which cited security concerns for not releasing more information.

Belgium and Norway have also promised to provide F-16s to Ukraine, and those aircraft will arrive later.

Ukrainian officials say the combat planes will help Kyiv knock down Russian missiles targeting Ukrainian cities, and help Kyiv’s forces push back Moscow’s forces on the front lines. They can also be equipped with air-to-air missiles capable of hitting targets inside Russia—if the jets can elude Russian air defenses near the border.

It isn’t yet clear if Ukraine will receive such missiles in sufficient numbers to significantly bolster its defenses. Many NATO countries are hesitant to part with AIM-120 medium air-to-air missiles and other advanced weaponry. There is concern among the allies that the demand from Kyiv could begin to deplete NATO countries’ stocks of the weapons.

It is also possible the countries donating missiles and aircraft will restrict Ukraine from using them to strike into Russian territory. While Denmark and the Netherlands haven’t said they would put restrictions on Kyiv’s use of their F-16s, the U.S. has limited how far Ukraine can shoot U.S.-made ground-to-ground missiles into Russia.

Norway set to donate six F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine

Norway will donate six F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine to help it in defense efforts against Russian air attacks, the Norwegian government said in a statement on Wednesday as NATO leaders attended a summit in Washington.

First F-16 fighter jets on their way to Ukraine, to fly ‘this summer’

Setting out the plans in a separate joint statement, issued Tuesday, they said more Patriot batteries will be donated by the US, Germany, and Romania, while the Netherlands will donate Patriot components as part of a collaboration with “other” partners, that will result in the supply of one full Patriot system. Additionally, Italy will supply one SAMP-T system.

“These five strategic air defense systems will help to protect Ukrainian cities, civilians, and soldiers, and we are coordinating closely with the Ukrainian government so that these systems can be utilized rapidly,” said the world leaders.

They are also working to deliver “additional strategic air defense systems” for Ukraine.

Russia lacks munitions, troops for big Ukraine offensive, says NATO official

Russia lacks the munitions and troops to start a major offensive in Ukraine and would need to secure significant ammunition supplies from other countries beyond what it already has in order to do so, a senior NATO official said on Tuesday.

On the battlefield, the official said Russia has been suffering "very high" losses as it struggles to exploit small territorial gains and lacks the troops and ammunition to mount a large-scale offensive.
"What they are having to do is order undermanned, inexperienced units to move into areas to achieve unrealistic objectives," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
"To sustain real offensive operations, we think that Russia would have to secure significant ammunition supplies from countries beyond what it is already getting from Iran and from North Korea," the official continued. "And Vladimir Putin would have to order a new large-scale mobilization."

Western and Ukrainian officials say Iran supplies suicide drones to Russia - a charge denied by Tehran - and North Korea has provided artillery shells and missiles to Moscow. Both deny that such transfers have taken place.
"We've seen Ukrainian defences improve significantly," the official said, adding that Kyiv also has sustained significant troop loses.
He estimated that Russia would be able to maintain its war economy for three to four more years.

The official said "it will be some time" before Ukraine has amassed the munitions and personnel it needs to mount new large-scale offensive operations.

NATO has responded to Russia's covert campaign to undermine European support for Ukraine by issuing two statements alerting Moscow that the alliance is aware of what it is doing, the official said.
It has also significantly increased intelligence sharing among alliance members so "we have a common picture of what's happening," the official said.
"The very first thing that you have to do when you're pushing back against something that Vladimir Putin believes is below the threshold... is to show him that we know what's happening," he said.
He also singled out what he said was China's continuing provision of "critical enabling pieces" for drones, missiles and the Russian defence industry.
The official said Putin "still thinks time is on his side" and is willing to endure "truly staggering numbers of military casualties."
Russia was recruiting about 30,000 troops per month, allowing it to sustain large battlefield losses, he said.

 

[Dezbelief]

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-07-11/ukraine-seizes-cargo-ship-detains-captain-for-exporting-looted-grain

KYIV (Reuters) -Ukraine seized a foreign cargo ship in the Black Sea off its Odesa region and detained the captain on suspicion of helping Moscow export Ukrainian grain from Russian-occupied Crimea, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said on Thursday.

The vessel, which it did not identify, was travelling under the flag of a central African country and repeatedly docked at the Crimean sea port of Sevastopol to pick up "looted" agricultural products in 2023-24, the SBU said.

Russian forces occupied swathes of Ukraine's southern agricultural regions in the first year of its invasion in 2022 and Kyiv has accused Russia of stealing and destroying its grain.

The SBU said the captain and 12 crew members helped Russia export Ukrainian grain taken from the occupied south to the Middle East for sale on behalf of Russia.

"The investigation is ongoing to establish all the circumstances of the crime and identify other persons involved in the illegal activity," the SBU said.

The captain, a citizen of a South Caucasus country, could face up to five years in prison for violating travel restrictions governing Ukraine's Russian-occupied territories, it said.

The Odesa region hub plays a key role in Ukraine's Black Sea exports that it has revived without Russia's assent after Moscow quit a UN-brokered deal last summer that had allowed Kyiv to export food during the war with Russia.

It was unclear when Ukraine last intercepted a ship although they have said Russia has been trading stolen Ukrainian grain since the 2022 invasion began.

Asked if there had been a change in Ukrainian policy, a source in law enforcement told Reuters, "This is our policy. This vessel and the captain worked for the occupiers and now he entered the waters controlled by Ukraine. And we had an immediate reaction."

 

[Dezbelief]

Nato summit: US announces new $225m military aid package for Ukraine – as it happened

US secretary of state Antony Blinken has released a statement announcing new military assistance for Ukraine

www.theguardian.com

China tells Nato not to create chaos in Asia and rejects label of 'enabler' of Russia's Ukraine war
China accused Nato on Thursday of seeking security at the expense of others and told the alliance not to bring the same “chaos” to Asia, reports the Associated Press (AP).

“Nato hyping up China’s responsibility on the Ukraine issue is unreasonable and has sinister motives,” spokesperson Lin Jian said at a daily briefing. He maintained that China has a fair and objective stance on the Ukraine issue.

China has broken with the United States and its European allies over the war in Ukraine, refusing to condemn Russia’s invasion. Its trade with Russia has grown since the invasion, at least partially offsetting the impact of western sanctions.

Nato, in a communique issued at a summit in Washington DC, said China has become a enabler of the war through its “no-limits partnership” with Russia and its large-scale support for Russia’s defence industrial base.


The AP reports that Chinese troops are in Belarus this week for joint drills near the border with Poland, a Nato member. The exercises are the first-ever with Belarus, an ally of Russia.

Lin described the joint training as normal military exchange and cooperation that is not directed at any particular country.

 

[Dezbelief]

Nato summit: US announces new $225m military aid package for Ukraine – as it happened

US secretary of state Antony Blinken has released a statement announcing new military assistance for Ukraine

www.theguardian.com

If there has been a spoiler at this week’s carefully curated Nato summit, then it is Viktor Orbán, the conservative Hungarian prime minister who has enraged his Nato allies by meeting with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping en route to Washington DC in what he has called his “peace mission”.

Now on Thursday the Hungarian PM is planning to fly to Mar-a-Lago to meet with Donald Trump, a source close to Orbán told the Guardian, as he seeks to negotiate a peace deal without consulting other EU nations or the Biden administration.

 

[Dezbelief]

Please do not make political comments on the news posted above.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russia believed to be behind plot to assassinate European defence boss

Rheinmetall chief Armin Papperger says German government providing ‘great level of security’

www.ft.com

Russia is believed to be behind a foiled plot to assassinate the head of Europe’s largest ammunition manufacturer over his company’s support for Ukraine, according to Nato diplomats.

Two senior alliance diplomats said the alleged conspiracy against Armin Papperger, chief executive of Düsseldorf-based Rheinmetall, was being treated as part of Russia’s wider sabotage and hybrid attack campaign against European Nato states. The plot was first reported by CNN.

A personal familiar with Papperger’s security said that the measures around the defence boss were “at the highest level” — similar to the protection of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Ukrainian attacks on supply lines slowed Russians in Kharkiv, intercepts show

Ukrainian attacks on Russian supply lines have left Russian units scrambling for food, water and ammunition, blunting Moscow’s renewed invasion into Ukraine’s northeast Kharkiv region, according to Ukrainian field commanders who shared radio and phone intercepts and results of their interrogations of Russian prisoners of war.
The intercepts and extensive interviews with 10 Ukrainian commanders and troops operating across the front line in Kharkiv — including several who monitor Russian communications and who question POWs immediately after they are captured — paint a picture of increasingly desperate Russian ground troops who are losing personnel and momentum after reinvading across the border in May.
In the transcript of one radio conversation, intercepted in June and shared with The Washington Post, a Russian soldier orders another to ensure incoming troops responsible for carrying supplies understand that there is a dire shortage of food and water.
“Tell each of them … not to listen to the [expletive] guide who says that ‘Water is not needed, food is not needed, everything is here,’” the soldier says. “There is nothing here.”

The intercepted communications shared with The Post show that Russia now faces significant difficulty securing sufficient supply routes to serve the basic needs of its troops.
In one communication, a Russian soldier speaks to his parents, telling them he is positioned near the Ukrainian village of Lyptsi, where his unit lost several men and ran out of food.
“We had nothing to eat, but we found a jar of wine and drank it for two days,” the soldier said on the call, which Ukrainian troops recorded.
Another communication suggested troops were unwilling to move forward. “I am without orders,” one soldier says, describing troops who are “refusing.”
The intercepts, along with drone footage, provide critical intelligence as Ukrainian forces, outnumbered and outgunned, plan their next moves and assess the impact of their attacks.
Despite being stopped well short of encircling Kharkiv city, Russia’s objectives seem not to have changed, with Moscow’s forces still focused on seizing the village of Lyptsi, an important logistical hub that would also allow them to use hilltops for firing advantage, officials said.

Col. Maksym Golubok, 42, chief of staff of Ukraine’s 13th National Guard Brigade, said that since Washington lifted restrictions on hitting targets across the border, Russia has stopped massing large groups of troops in the border area and has moved some artillery systems away to protect them.
“They don’t gather people in one place. They operate in small units,” Golubok said in an interview. “We eliminate one soldier at a time, not entire units.”
Still, relentless glide bombs pose the greatest threat to Ukrainian troops. Between early May and late June, Golubok said, more than 660 bombs hit his brigade’s positions in the Kharkiv region.
Dmytro, 29, a Ukrainian soldier responsible for monitoring Russian communications, said that Russian soldiers previously used motorcycles and buggies for supply runs. But after Ukraine, using drones, mined roads and hit supply vehicles, Russian soldiers are moving mainly on foot.
Ukrainian troops are also delivering supplies on risky ground missions, as well as by air using agricultural drones that carry heavier payloads.
Due to constant Ukrainian surveillance, Russian troops are moving in short bursts, taking cover frequently, Dmytro said, so a five-mile journey for food and water could take three days or longer.
“If we disrupt the routes they use for food and supplies, we won’t need to go on assault — they’ll just leave the positions,” he said, speaking from a different underground command center north of Kharkiv where wall-mounted screens showed live bird’s eye views of Russian positions.

Andrii Shcherbyna, 42, a soldier in Ukraine’s 57th brigade, said that while on front-line missions, he drinks two to three liters of water a day. From intercepts, Shcherbyna said he understood Russian troops are rationing water, drinking just 250 milliliters each.
“Our main target is not let the Russians establish supply routes,” he said. “If you cut water and food, they’re in a very bad condition.”
Some Russian soldiers are now holed up in a factory in Vovchansk, a town Russia invaded in May where street battles continue to occur, Ukrainian officials said.
In June, Ukraine cut off supplies by surrounding the factory, which is the tallest building in the area and fortified by thick walls.
Despite initial plans to flood the area with reinforcements, Russia has been unable to reach the factory, Ukrainian troops said. Storming it would be difficult, so Ukrainian troops focus on blocking supply routes.
Vitalii, 23, one of the Ukrainian troops working in intense 24-hour shifts monitoring the factory from a destroyed civilian house nearby, said there could be anywhere from dozens to more than 100 Russian soldiers inside. “Our responsibility is to control the road to cut off supply,” Vitalii said.
Russia has also tried — often unsuccessfully — to deliver supplies by drone, Vitalii said.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

South Korea ramps up defense exports to Europe, eyeing Ukraine war

Yoon spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as well, during a dinner hosted by U.S. President Joe Biden at the White House. Zelenskyy may have requested weapons support from Yoon, some South Korean media outlets report.

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This morning, Ukrainian forces struck the Russian-occupied Mariupol International Airport, outside of Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast.

Smoke could be seen rising above the airfield from multiple locations around the city.

Russian pilot leaked personnel data on Russian aviation division to Ukraine, source says

"He was shocked by the attack on the children's hospital, so he decided to hand over to the Ukrainian side documents related to the activities of his military unit, as well as private photos of the command staff," the source said.

kyivindependent.com

A Russian pilot passed on confidential information to Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) that helped identify 30 commanders of the Russian heavy bomber aviation division, a source in the agency told the Kyiv Independent on July 11.

The Russian pilot who served in the 22nd Heavy Bomber Aviation Division contacted the HUR on July 8 after the Russian attack on the Okhmatdyt children's hospital. The pilot provided personal information, including photos and other confidential documents, on 30 Russian commanders, the source added.

The pilot passed the information through the Ukrainian state chatbot, Diia, on Telegram, according to the source.

"He was shocked by the attack on the children's hospital, so he decided to hand over to the Ukrainian side documents related to the activities of his military unit, as well as private photos of the command staff," the source said.

Russian losses in Ukraine reached 'conflict highs' in past 2 months, UK Defense Ministry says

In an intelligence report on X, the U.K. Defense Ministry said average daily Russian casualties – both killed and wounded – reached 1,262 and 1,163 in the two months, respectively.

kyivindependent.com

Russian losses in Ukraine reached "conflict highs" during May and June, the U.K. Defense Ministry reported on July 12.

In an intelligence report on X, the ministry said average daily Russian casualties – both killed and wounded – reached 1,262 and 1,163 in the two months, respectively.

"In total, Russia likely lost in excess of 70,000 personnel over the past two months," the statement read.

'Depends on circumstances,' Danish PM says on Ukraine using F-16s to strike inside Russia

"But it is possible also to reach targets outside Ukraine (with Danish-supplied F-16s), yes," Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen added.

kyivindependent.com

The permission for Ukraine to strike inside Russia with Danish-supplied F-16s will "depend on the circumstances," Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen told RFE/RL on July 12 while confirming that it will be allowed in some cases.

Ukraine sees surge in female soldiers with over 10,000 women serving on front lines, Deputy PM says

The total marks a significant increase in the number of women serving active combat roles, which was around 5,000 women during the first year of the full-scale invasion.

kyivindependent.com

Over 10,000 women are currently carrying out combat roles on Ukraine's front lines, Deputy Prime Minister for European and Euro-Atlantic Integration Olha Stefanishyna confirmed on July 11.

The total marks a significant increase in the number of women serving active combat roles, which was around 5,000 women during the first year of the full-scale invasion.

"An increasing number of women are serving in the defense forces, with over 10,000 women now performing combat duties on the front line," Stefanishyna said at a panel on female leadership at the NATO Public Forum.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

On NATO's eastern flank, on the Russian border, the 'pre-war era' has begun

The belief that Russia will eventually seek to extend its expansionism westward of Ukraine is now widely held within NATO. "Currently, there's no direct confrontation with the Russians. Almost all their ground forces are deployed in Ukraine," said Joris Van Bladel, a specialist in Russian military matters and a senior associate at the Egmont Institute, the Royal Institute for International Relations, in Belgium. "But as soon as Moscow has the means to do so, possibly within the next two to five years, once its defense industry reorganizes, it will push the offensive. What we're witnessing currently on the eastern flank is actually a race against time," said Van Bladel.

Russian assassination plot highlights risks for western arms makers in Ukraine

But the possibility of western CEOs being on Russian hit lists underlines the reason why many western companies have been hesitant to commit to a significant manufacturing presence in Ukraine.

“Real industrial presence at the moment is limited; at most it is helping Ukraine maintain products on the ground,” said Chloe Lemaire, a defence industries analyst at investment bank Jefferies. “But there are a lot of ongoing discussions with Ukraine in terms of potentially helping after the high intensity phase of the war is over.”

Defence contractors note that the current thinking was around “light touch” involvement on the ground and building relationships, with a hefty presence inside the country seen as too dangerous.

“We want to support them and help rebuild their industrial base,” an executive at one European defence company said.

Trevor Taylor, a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based defence think-tank, said building a production facility inside Ukraine would be fraught with complications, from security to guaranteeing an effective supply chain of components.

“A weapons factory would be a primary target,” he said. Expensive insurance and finding a secure location would be a major headache, he added.

Still, Ukrainian officials have pushed to establish joint-ventures with western defence companies.

The UK companies BAE and Babcock this year both pledged to begin establishing some maintenance and repair work inside Ukraine, promising to get assets back on to the frontline more quickly.

KNDS, a joint-venture of France’s state-owned Nexteer and Germany’s Krauss-Maffei Wegmann, which makes munitions, armoured vehicles and the Caesar howitzer, in early June also signed a series of contracts formalising its next steps in Ukraine when President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Paris.

Ukrainian Men Desperate to Escape War Are Drowning as They Flee

The bodies in the river are a grim manifestation of one of the biggest issues facing Ukraine as the war enters its third summer without a clear path to victory. Many of the men who initially mobilized to repel Russia’s invasion are dead, missing or wounded—and the rest are worn out from more than two years of brutal combat. Ukraine’s government has struggled to replace them after dragging its feet over a politically unpopular decision to expand the draft. A wartime law bans men aged between 18 and 60 from leaving Ukraine. Still, tens of thousands have fled the country illegally and many are lying low to avoid conscription.

The delay in mustering fresh troops has increased the strain on soldiers serving with no prospect of demobilization other than through injury or death. Military contracts became indefinite when martial law was introduced in the early days of the war.

“We need to do this so that the guys have a normal rotation. Then their morale will be improved,” said Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky in an interview with the BBC in May about the mobilization drive. A large number of brigades were “empty,” he acknowledged.
Recruitment numbers have improved since Zelensky signed a law lowering the age of conscription to 25, along with other steps taken to replenish threadbare ranks. Despite the challenges, support for the war remains strong, according to a recent poll by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, which found that 58% supported further mobilization compared with 35% against.

But the conscription campaign has also driven more men into the shadows and inflamed tensions in society. Across the country, men are hiding from draft officers, who have been filmed snatching potential conscripts off the street. Data from three neighboring countries indicates the number of men fleeing Ukraine illegally has increased in recent months. Border guards catch dozens of men daily, with some of the more desperate attempts ridiculed on social media.

As winter thawed, the Tysa swelled and the current grew stronger. In late April, rescuers recovered the bodies of two men beached on an islet in the river. Soon afterward, a fisherman spotted the body of another man in the water. Two more were pulled out the same day—one of them just 20 years old.

“They want to live,” said Oleksandr Schubert, head of a team of rescuers who work along the river. “But instead of dying there [on the front line], they die here.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

NATO’s Arms Race Against Russia Heats Up

But it’s not just the dollar amount—it’s also how it’s spent. “Strategic commanders will not take a chart with percents once they are confronted with a situation,” said Czech President Petr Pavel at the NATO Public Forum. “They will count aircraft, ships, combat units at required readiness. This is what we should focus on beyond this 2 percent line, because we have serious gaps in meeting our capability targets,” added Pavel, a retired general who served for three years as the chair of the NATO Military Committee.
Estonia’s defense minister, Hanno Pevkur, said that his government estimates that Russia is spending around 7 to 9 percent of its GDP on defense this year. (Russia’s GDP is around $5.8 trillion, so that would amount to around $400 billion to $520 billion on defense per year.)
NATO officials expect that Russia can sustain its war economy for at least another three to four years. To outpace it, the alliance must wake up its own trans-Atlantic defense industry, which has atrophied for decades since the end of the Cold War.

But Europe still needs more of everything—especially artillery ammunition and air defense—and a lot of it is going out the door to Ukraine.
“We have been taking a lot of measures in regard to strengthening our production capacity when it comes to 155 [mm artillery],” said Pal Jonson, the Swedish defense minister, in an interview with SitRep. “But [on] air defense, we’re lagging behind more than the Americans.”
Part of the answer, Jonson said, is making sure that NATO nations are undertaking joint procurement initiatives for big weapons programs “so we can send the signals to the defense industrial base that we’re going to be putting in orders for a long time to come.”

Meanwhile, alliance officials are also debating how to tighten Western sanctions against Moscow and its partners to help choke off Russia’s own industrial base.
Ukrainian officials have pushed the United States to consider new sweeping sanctions on Russian banks to dry up their lines of credit to buy more weapons as well as stronger export controls to shut down Russia’s access to critical military components. Tobias Billstrom, Sweden’s top diplomat, told SitRep in an interview that allies should consider applying punishing secondary sanctions to try to hit back-channel suppliers for Russia’s war machine in China and Central Asia.
“The Russians are very cleverly adapting technologically and procedurally to many of the challenges that they run into in Ukraine,” said Gen. Christopher Cavoli, the top NATO military chief and the head of U.S. European Command.

Despite being NATO’s newest members, both Finland and Sweden are pushing other allies to invest more in defense, Finnish Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen said at a Tuesday event in Washington, D.C., on the sidelines of the summit. Apparently having Russia as your next door neighbor really clarifies things. “We are investing heavily in defense for decades, not just during this Ukraine war,” Häkkänen said, “because we have always seen through our intelligence what the Russians are doing.”

Poland mulls shooting down Russian missiles over Ukraine amid wave of deadly attacks

Warsaw is considering intervening after strikes have devastated the power grid and destroyed Kyiv’s largest children’s hospital.

www.politico.eu

Poland is weighing up whether it can intercept Russian rockets on course to strike Ukrainian cities, Warsaw has said, as Western allies step up shipments of air defenses to help protect civilians and critical energy infrastructure.

At a speech to the American Enterprise Institute on the sidelines of a NATO summit in Washington on Friday, Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said the proposal — initially put forward by Kyiv — is being considered and was included in a joint defense agreement signed by the two countries.

"At this stage, this is an idea. What our agreement said is we will explore this idea," Sikorski said.

Poland, he added, has a right to shoot down Russian missiles that risk crossing into its territory "we assume, by mistake." However, the foreign minister went on, intercepting them only after they have crossed the border presents a "dilemma" given the debris can cause damage by itself.

"The Ukrainians are saying, ‘Please, we will not mind, do it over our airspace when they’re in imminent danger of crossing into Polish territory. To my mind, that’s self-defense, but we are exploring the idea," Sikorski said.

That marks a departure from Warsaw's previous positions on the issue. Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, the country's deputy prime minister and minister for defense, told Polish Radio earlier this week that the move would require sign-off from NATO allies amid fears over potential escalation.

"If NATO does not make such a decision, Poland will not make it individually," he said.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine’s F-16 Ambitions Snarled by Language Barrier, Runways and Parts

The move to send warplanes — a much hyped element of this week’s NATO summit in Washington — has been bedeviled by delays, questions around spare parts, and a language barrier between Ukrainian pilots and their foreign trainers, according to people familiar with the matter. Planners also worry that the country doesn’t have enough runways — and those it does have are vulnerable to Russian attacks.
The result is that Ukraine may be able to field a squadron of F-16s, anything from 15 to 24 jets, well short of the 300 its leaders have called for, according to one of the people. Another said Kyiv expects to get six F-16s this summer and up to 20 by the end of the year.

The challenges have been so severe that they’ve raised doubts about the wisdom of sending the jets to Ukraine and whether doing so now amounts to a very costly show of support to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. In the months since pilots began training, including 12 in the US, the battlefield has changed, with both sides relying on cheap drones and Russia bolstering its air defenses.
“People shouldn’t expect miracles” from the F-16s against Russia, said Jim Townsend, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security. And in terms of vulnerabilities, “those airfields are going to be nice, juicy targets, and the Russians have already been hitting some of them, just as a welcome to the real world for these F-16s.”
A senior NATO official listed three main issues weighing on planners’ minds. First, the planes must be reconfigured depending on their task, such as reconnaissance or combat. Second, Ukraine doesn’t have many long, high-quality runways required for the F-16s, or shelters to protect them from Russian attack.
Third, the logistics of supporting the planes are complex, from the need for spare parts to maintenance demands to finding engineers. Another NATO official noted that Ukraine is trying to achieve in a matter of months what usually takes three to four years.

Russia will attack Ukraine again from the north, Budanov says

Military intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov refused to specify if he was talking about an offensive in the oblasts of Sumy or Chernihiv so as not to "provoke panic" but insisted indications were already present that a new attack was imminent.

kyivindependent.com

Russia will soon once again attack Ukraine from the north, Ukraine's military intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, said in an interview published July 13.

Speaking to NV news outlet, Budanov refused to specify if he was talking about an offensive in the oblasts of Sumy or Chernihiv so as not to "provoke panic," but insisted indications were already present.

"If I start answering that question (of where the attack will be), we’ll provoke panic," he said. "Let's just say that there are problems, and they tend to get worse."

"There is no catastrophe, but it’s impossible not to see the problems. I’ve already told someone from the Western press: I won’t have much good news this year, unfortunately," Budanov said.

Czech president announces upcoming shipment of shells to Ukraine

Czech President Petr Pavel announced on July 12 that the Czech Republic will send Ukraine 50,000 rounds of ammunition in July and August.

kyivindependent.com

Czech President Petr Pavel announced on July 12 that the Czech Republic will send Ukraine 50,000 rounds of ammunition in July and August. From September to the end of the year, Ukraine will receive 80,000 to 100,000 rounds of ammunition per month, he added.

This initiative is part of the Czech Republic's plan to supply half a million rounds of ammunition to Ukraine in 2024, according to the Czech Television Company.

 

[higgins]

Belarus withdrawing all troops along Ukrainian border?

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Half Ukraine’s power is knocked out; winter is coming

Ingenuity can get you only so far

www.economist.com

Maxim Timchenko, CEO of DTEK, which runs most of Ukraine’s non-nuclear power plants, including the one The Economist visited, says that 90% of their generating capacity has been destroyed this year. Waves of attacks since March have targeted thermal and hydro plants as well as, for the first time, solar-energy installations. As Russia struggles to make any serious gains on the battlefield, power lines have become the new front line.
Before the invasion, Ukraine’s generating capacity was 36 gigawatts (GW) of electricity. Russia targeted its electricity infrastructure in late 2022, and half of that capacity had already been lost—either occupied, destroyed or damaged—before the attacks renewed this year. Ukraine had managed to restore some capacity, and last winter managed to just about keep the lights on, restoring capacity almost to the 18GW then needed.
But this year’s attacks have destroyed 9GW of capacity. Pretty much all that is left comes from nuclear power stations, which the Russians have refrained from attacking. The chug of generators has returned to Kyiv’s streets and there are power cuts in every Ukrainian city. Russian attacks continue. There are not enough air-defence batteries to knock out all the missiles.

Now what? Ukraine currently imports 1.7GW from the EU; this could be increased to around 2GW or so, according to more optimistic predictions, but transmission constraints mean imported electricity cannot provide more than an incremental boost. In the short term there is some hope that the damaged power stations can be repaired sufficiently by this winter to produce another 2-3 GW of capacity. Ukrainian engineers are scouring Europe for second-hand equipment from decommissioned Soviet-type power stations.
It is unclear how realistic this is. ‘”We will try,” says Serhiy, the engineer, sadly surveying the wreckage of his power station. But everyone understands, that even if you could partly refurbish existing power plants, they are large sitting ducks. All of them have already been hit multiple times.
Repairing existing thermal power stations could be a relatively cheap stop-gap measure. But even without the war, Ukraine would need to reorient its energy policy away from coal-fired stations. The government has decided to invest in nuclear; announcing that four new reactors are to be built at Khmelnytsky, one of the three nuclear power plants still under Ukrainian control, and which produce most of the power Ukraine still has. (The fourth, at Zaporizhia, is under Russian occupation and is now shut down.)
Ukrainian energy analysts are not convinced. “They are spending money on something we don’t need,” says Volodymyr Omelchenko at the Razumkov Centre, a think-tank. “It’s a very bad decision in my opinion. It looks like a way to tie up a lot of money in investing in a project over ten years.”
Meanwhile local municipalities, desperate to be able to provide the critical services of heating and water-pumping this winter, are decentralising power generation, installing mini power plants in the form of modern, efficient, gas turbines that have a capacity of anything from five to 70 megawatts (MW). These mini power plants can plug in locally, but it is unlikely that enough could be installed before the coming winter to help with the nationwide structural power deficit. Wind and solar can add a bit more.

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The increasing importance of bomber UAVs & UAVs used for resupply missions to units fighting in the first line had been one of the more interesting aspects during our latest research trip. At the same time, there is the assumption among some operators that the utility of…

…existing bomber UAVs will gradually diminish given prevailing adaptation cycles and that it is more of a temporary phenomenon.

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Interesting data. If correct, shows size of signing bonus to join Russian military increasing in the last 3 months 13x in Karachayevo-Cherkesiya (to $15K), 6.5x in Samara (to $11K), 6.5x in Tatarstan (to $15K), 2.5x in Sakhalin & Tver (to $9K), etc.

Ukraine Battles to Contain Russian Advances Across the Front

Russian forces over the weekend pushed into Urozhaine, a southern village won back by Ukraine last summer, the latest in a series of slow but steady advances that are reversing hard-won Ukrainian victories.
The Russian advances are a sobering development for Kyiv as its troops battle to contain attacks along a more than 600-mile front line.
In the east, Moscow’s troops are also pressing forward. They have entered the outskirts of Chasiv Yar, a Ukrainian stronghold in the region, and are closing in on a key Ukrainian supply route.

Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed on Sunday that its soldiers had seized Urozhaine, a small village in southeastern Ukraine. The Ukrainian military made no comment but maps of the battlefield compiled by analysts from combat footage also showed Urozhaine under Russian control, including a map by DeepState, a group with close ties to the Ukrainian Army.
Russian forces “occupied Urozhaine,” DeepState said Sunday, describing the loss as a “defense collapse.” Pasi Paroinen, from the Black Bird Group, a Finland-based organization that analyzes imagery from the Ukrainian battlefield, also confirmed the loss.
Urozhaine was one of the few southern villages that Ukraine liberated last summer, rare successes in an otherwise disappointing counteroffensive. But those gains are now slowly being reversed by advancing Russian troops. In May, Russia recaptured most of Robotyne, a village west of Urozhaine that was retaken by Ukrainian forces last August.
“Of course it’s unfortunate to see all of last summer’s gains slowly returning to Russian control,” Mr. Paroinen said. “As long as Russia holds the initiative, these slow roll backs will continue.”
Kyiv held on to Urozhaine for nearly a year after its liberation, despite an intense Russian bombardment campaign in recent months that involved glide bombs, heavy artillery and powerful rockets, Mr. Paroinen said. Ukraine has long argued that defending small places of little strategic value is worth the cost in lives and weapons because the attacking Russians pay an even higher price.
Until two days ago, maps of the battlefield showed that most of Urozhaine remained under Ukrainian control. That it fell to Russian forces in such a short space of time suggests that Kyiv’s troops may have suddenly withdrawn from the village, which now lies in ruins.

Ukraine’s army general staff said Sunday that the “hottest situation” along the front line was near Pokrovsk, an eastern city turned military garrison that sits on a key road linking several Ukrainian-held cities in the area.
Since Russia captured Avdiivka, a Ukrainian stronghold in the east, this year, its troops have been slowly advancing toward the crucial road, called Highway T0504. They are now less than four miles south of the road, putting it well within range of Russian artillery and drone strikes.
Should Russian forces reach the road, Ukrainian military operations in the eastern Donetsk region would be seriously hampered. Towns linked by the road and key to the defense of the region would have to be supplied by alternative, less practical routes.

Ukraine war briefing: ‘Hottest situation’ around Pokrovsk, says Ukrainian military

Russians claim capture of Urozhaine village; Zelenskiy says 700 glide bombs hit Ukraine last week. What we know on day 873

www.theguardian.com

Russia’s defence ministry said its forces had taken control of the village of Urozhaine in Ukraine’s Donetsk region. Ukrainian bloggers also said Ukraine’s forces had relinquished control of the village, south-west of the Russian-held city of Donetsk. Ukraine’s military said fighting was still going on. Reuters, which reported the development, said it was not able to independently confirm the Ukrainian or Russian reports.
The general staff of Ukraine’s armed forces said Russia had launched 18 attacks on Urozhaine and other nearby localities. It made no mention of the village in a later report. DeepState, a popular Ukrainian military blog, reported Urozhaine’s capture on Sunday, saying Russian forces had launched “mass assaults on the south of the village”. It described the loss as a “defence collapse” the cause of which would have to be investigated.

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Russia apparently retook the village of Urozhaine in southern Donetsk Oblast as of July 13.

The Ukrainian analytical project DeepState reported that Russia launched an attack with two companies at Urozhaine. At this point in the war, it’s rare to see either side attacking even at this relatively small scale. Attacks typically occur at the platoon or squad level.

Assault troops from Russia’s 37th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade and 40th Naval Infantry Brigade raised flags in the central and northern pars of the village. Troops from the 5th Guards Tank Brigade also fought at Urozhaine.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine's mobilisation campaign picks up despite faltering enthusiasm

Seeing the military patrol handing out call-up papers on the outskirts of Kyiv, one man slipped into a nearby store. Another refused to even stop for the officers. Others, however, quietly obliged.
While men may be coming round to Ukraine's ramped-up mobilisation drive to replenish troop numbers more than 28 months since Russia's invasion, they are less eager to fight than before, said a draft officer, who uses the call sign "Fantomas".
"Now, as far as I know, most of the queues (at draft offices) are people who want to obtain some sort of exemption (from fighting)," said the 36-year-old, who was accompanied by Reuters on a recent draft patrol in the Ukrainian capital.
The combat veteran is on the front lines of the effort to redouble the draft despite waning public enthusiasm for wartime service as military analysts describe regenerating troop manpower as one of Kyiv's central battlefield challenges.
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy lowered the draft age to 25 from 27 in April and signed off on an overhaul of the mobilisation process that entered force in May, obliging men under 60 to renew their personal data at draft offices or online.
Though recruitment numbers remain shrouded in wartime secrecy, some political and military officials have said the changes, including a campaign to increase voluntary recruitment, have got the mobilisation effort back on track after two months.
The Ukrainian military told Reuters in a written statement that the conscription rate had more than doubled in May and June compared to the previous two months, without providing the figures.
Spokesperson Bohdan Senyk described that as a "positive trend". The average age of a mobilised soldier remained unchanged at around 40.

Strengthened by long-delayed Western aid, Ukraine's forces have struggled for months to hold the line against Russian troops inching forward in the east.
Many weary troops are desperate to be replaced after more than two years of virtually non-stop service with no clarity on when they will be demobilized from an armed forces of around 1 million.
Asked about a figure of 200,000 additional troops cited in a German newspaper, Roman Kostenko, secretary of parliament's national defence committee estimated that the military could enlist that many by the year's end if the process continued at its current pace.
That, he said, could allow Ukraine to consider legislation to demobilize some troops, though the interior minister warned doing so without replacing a proportional share of them could weaken the front.
Mathieu Boulègue, a defence analyst for the Washington-based Center for European Policy Analysis, said the 200,000 estimate was encouraging but that the more critical task would be training them and distributing them to the front correctly.

Since the mobilisation overhaul, some draft offices have struggled to cope with the influx of men who have come to register or update their data by the July 16 deadline.
"More people are coming than we are able to accept," said a deputy head of the draft office where Fantomas works. "Sometimes processing drags on to 1 o'clock at night."
The official, who requested anonymity, echoed Fantomas and said a "very, very big" portion of men were seeking exemptions, though he insisted things were on track.
"We're fulfilling our assigned tasks. I wouldn't say to 100%, but not bad."

Ukraine says Russia's last naval patrol ship leaving Crimea

Ukraine's navy said on Monday that Moscow's last naval patrol ship had left Russian-occupied Crimea, "most likely" to rebase elsewhere after Kyiv's concerted military campaign to attack the Black Sea peninsula as it battles Russian invasion.
Though it has no major warships at its disposal, Ukraine has used missiles and naval drones to inflict significant damage to the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which has long been headquartered in Sevastopol on the peninsula seized by Moscow in 2014.
Vice-Admiral Oleksiy Neizhpapa, Ukraine's navy chief, told Reuters earlier this month that Russia had been forced to rebase nearly all its combat-ready warships from occupied Crimea.
"The last patrol ship of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation is bolting from our Crimea just now. Remember this day," Navy spokesman Dmytro Pletenchuk said on Facebook.
Asked to clarify whether this was a permanent move, Pletenchuk told Reuters: "Most likely, this is a transition between bases", adding that Moscow did not usually send ships to the open sea for no reason.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

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Ukraine launched 6 ATACMS Missiles destroying a Russian S-300V Anti-Ballistic Missile Air Defense System at night near Mariupol, both launchers and a 9S19 S-300V radar were destroyed

This is one of the most impressive ATACMS strikes recorded during the war

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Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from the settlement of Krynky on the left bank of Dnipro river in Kherson Oblast and Urozhaine in southwestern part of Donetsk Oblast, a source in the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine told http://liga.net.

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The Ukrainian outlet Suspilne reported the same re: withdrawal from Krynky, citing an unnamed AFU source.

Ukrainian troops withdraw from Krynky in Kherson Oblast

Ukrainian troops have withdrawn from the village of Krynky on the left (eastern) bank of Kherson Oblast.

Source: sources of Ukrainska Pravda in Ukraine's Marines Corps; Suspilne, Ukraine's public broadcaster, with reference to a source in the defence forces

Details: The military reports that this happened several weeks ago.

Earlier, DeepState analysts reported that Russians had occupied the village of Urozhaine in Donetsk Oblast.

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A new study by @thebell_io says at least 666,000 Russians have emigrated abroad — and have not returned — since the start of the invasion of Ukraine.

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Potentially another source of F-16s for #Ukraine, as #Israel retires its F-16C Barak 1 jets. Acquired in the 1980s, these Block 30/40 jets not as capable as Block 15 MLU (which is analogous to the Block 50/52), but could be useful attrition replacement or spares platforms...

Ukraine and Czech producer to build ammunition factory in Ukraine

Ukraine's state company Ukroboronservice and Czech ammunition maker Sellier & Bellot plan to build an ammunition factory in Ukraine, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Tuesday after joint government meetings in Prague.
The Czech Republic has been a major backer of Kyiv in its fight to push back Russian invaders, spearheading an initiative that has sourced hundreds of thousands of ammunition rounds from around the world.

Ukrainians struggle with scorching heat amid power crisis

On some evenings, Ukrainian mother Margaryta Zakharchuk wanders around her neighbourhood in the sweltering heat waiting for the electricity to come back on so she can take the lift to her 12th-floor apartment.
"We walk around outside until 10 o'clock so we don't need to climb up with two kids," she said.
Zakharchuk, 43, is among the millions of Ukrainians struggling amid a record heat wave compounded by regular power cuts that make household appliances like air conditioning units and refrigerators useless.
Regular Russian air strikes have ravaged the country's energy system, leading to hours-long rolling blackouts that have forced residents and businesses to adapt in the extreme heat.
The Central Geophysical Observatory said on Tuesday it had clocked a record-high 93.5 degrees Fahrenheit (34.2 degrees Celsius) in Kyiv for July 15. Temperatures on Tuesday were expected to reach even higher.
Zakharchuk, for instance, is limited in what she can cook for her family of four because food spoils quicker, she said.
Like many other Ukrainians, her daily life is divided into blocks of time when electricity is available.
"The light comes on and you begin doing everything: washing, ironing, cooking, charging all your devices," she said while splashing down her one-year-old daughter Vasilisa in the sink.
Zakharchuk added that her family had considered leaving town, but that options to do so were unavailable.
At a nearby corner store, shopkeeper Vika said she has begun ordering fewer dairy products like milk and butter. Prices have also gone up to cover the cost of running the generator.

"These are all expenses," said the 37-year-old, who said power at her store is out for around six to eight hours per day.
The extreme heat is also taking a broader toll on Ukraine's economy, with state weather forecasters saying on Tuesday the harvest of late crops could decline by up to 30% in central, southern and eastern regions.
Grid operator Ukrenergo announced on Tuesday new emergency electricity shutdowns for some consumers in seven regions - but not including the capital - due to the heatwave following a failure of power equipment.
"Last night there was an equipment failure at one of the energy facilities. The energy deficit in the system increased," it said on the Telegram messaging app.
The energy ministry has urged consumers to conserve energy and minimise the use of powerful electrical appliances to preserve the stability of the power grid.
Standing outside her building holding her infant, Zakharchuk lamented that hauling a pram up to her apartment was not an option.
"Now it's a long road up back home."

Repair of Ukraine's largest hydroelectric power plant to take at least 3 years due to Russian attacks

Restoring the Dnipro Hydroelectric Station in Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine's largest hydroelectric power plant, will take at least three years, according to Ihor Syrota, head of the Ukrainian state-owned energy company Ukrhydroenergo.

"For the enemy, the Dnipro Hydroelectric Station is more easily reachable, the front line is 50 kilometers away (from it)," Syrota said in an interview with Forbes Ukraine published on July 16.

"They (Russian forces) are launching various missiles there: S-300, Kh-101, Kh-69. Our air defense cannot always cope with such an influx of missiles," he added.

Russia launched a large-scale drone and missile attack on Ukraine overnight on June 1, targeting the Dnipro Hydroelectric Station, among other facilities. It took a month and a half to clear the rubble after the attack, with work only completed on July 14.

The power plant was also hit with eight Russian missiles on March 22 during one of the biggest attacks on the country's energy infrastructure, which reportedly led to the loss of a third of its capacity.

It will take at least three years to restore the Dnipro Hydroelectric Station to full shape before the Russian attacks. Additional resources are also needed to reduce the plant's vulnerability to new possible strikes, according to Syrota.

Ukrhydroenergo is preparing lawsuits in international and national courts to obtain compensation for losses from Russian attacks on the power plant in Zaporizhzhia, Syrota said.

Russia has attacked all of Ukraine's largest hydroelectric power plants since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. As of mid-July, more than 120 missile strikes were launched against them, Forbes Ukraine reported.

Ukrhydroenergo has lost almost 45% of its electricity generation capacity due to Russian attacks.

 

[themeistersinger]

Russia’s retreat from Crimea makes a mockery of the West's escalation fears

The Russian Navy's quiet retreat from Crimea highlights the emptiness of Putin's red lines and the self-defeating folly of Western escalation management, writes Peter Dickinson.

www.atlanticcouncil.org

 

[themeistersinger]

Putin's War, Week 124. NATO Summit Meets and Putin Levels a Hospital

https://redstate.com/streiff/2024/07/11/putins-war-week-124-n2176394

 

[Don't Toews Me]

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Payments to Russian military servicemen and their families over the last 12 months amounted to around *8%* of all federal government spending, a study has found

The sum in question is equivalent to 1.5% of Russia's GDP

How the war in Ukraine is reviving Russia’s rustbelt

Looking at his pay cheque, which has tripled since 2022, Russian factory worker Anton does not know whether to laugh or cry.

The 37-year old is painfully aware that the rise is the result of President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine and turn Russia into a war economy.

“On the one hand, it’s war, and people — even my relatives — are dying,” said Anton, whose uncle was killed in Ukraine.

“But then . . . there is this rebirth of manufacturing,” he said, with the war having a “genuinely positive effect” on people’s quality of life in his region. “Have we ever had a period like this, in the history of our country, when us ‘proles’ have earned this much?” he added.

As Russia braces for a long war, state orders to arm, fuel, feed and clothe the army are injecting vast sums of money into the economy.

This has led to a boom where many expected western sanctions to deal a painful blow: Russia’s economy is forecast to grow 3 per cent this year, far above the US and most European states.

The effect is most pronounced in rustbelt regions such as Anton’s Chuvashia in central Russia, which is home to 1.2mn people and where Soviet factories have been revived and are working around the clock to supply the war.

“Some of the most underperforming regions have suddenly started to grow. Manufacturing regions, areas where there is a lot of defence and related industry,” said political scientist Ekaterina Kurbangaleeva.

“The most under-developed regions and the low-income segments of the population are the ones that are winning,” Kurbangaleeva said. “That’s where the money is going.”

Understanding the experience of regions like Chuvashia is critical for forecasting Russia’s long-term ability to sustain its war of attrition against Ukraine, both economically and politically, analysts say.

Orders at Anton’s metal manufacturing plant began to rise in autumn 2022, around six months after the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The moment “was a clear turning point. That’s when the regime realised this would not be a short war,” said Laura Solanko, of the Bank of Finland’s Institute for Economies in Transition, who has studied the effect of the war on household incomes.

Factories across Russia began shifting production to military needs. In Chuvashia, seven plants were filling orders for the armed forces before the war; by October 2022 the number had risen to 36, according to the local governor.

Anton’s plant took on only a handful of defence orders, stepping in instead to fill gaps left in civilian production.

By the end of 2023, industrial output was up in almost 60 per cent of Russian regions. Chuvashia recorded the second-highest rate, with its factories producing 27 per cent more than the year before, local data shows.

Across Russia, the defence sector has rushed to hire staff in an already tight labour market. “The same day I quit my old job, I was offered a new one,” said one worker in his fifties. At his new workplace in Chuvashia’s capital, Cheboksary, management has doubled the number of machine units working round the clock.

Inflation, however, has eaten into salary growth. Prices across the country have grown by over 21 per cent since the start of the war, with the cost of food rising even faster.

“Go into a shop and take a look, everything has soared,” another Chuvashia factory worker said. “Rbs60,000 a month will go just on food.”

Anton said inflation meant his pay rise had not been “truly transformative,” but he felt his purchasing power had grown.

This effect is likely to have an impact on the political views of swaths of the Russian population, bolstering support for the war, sociologists said.
Early in the war, western policymakers hoped the effect of sanctions and inflation would help turn the Russian public against the war, with a lighter wallet and emptier fridge acting as a counterweight to the pro-war propaganda on state TV.

But more than two years later, “the television and the fridge are in sync”, said Kurbangaleeva.

 

[The Z Machine]

One would think that if the lower wage earners are seeing big rises in wages, exceeding even 20% inflation, then those white collar workers that haven't seen that wage growth. Of course, those workers probably haven't been drafted either...

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Germany slashes Ukraine funding in savings push

Germany, which overcame its initial reluctance to support Ukraine to become the country’s biggest European supplier of military aid, looks poised to change course as the government plans to slash future assistance by half in order to fulfill other spending priorities, according to a finance ministry document.

The German finance minister on Wednesday detailed his country's preliminary 2025 budget, in which military aid to Ukraine is slated to be cut by half to just €4 billion, according to a draft seen by POLITICO.

Russia’s vast stocks of Soviet-era weaponry are running out

The key issue is not manpower. Russia seems able to go on finding another 25,000 or so soldiers each month to maintain numbers at the front of around 470,000, although it is paying more for them. Production of missiles to strike Ukrainian infrastructure is also surging. But for all the talk about Russia having become a war economy, with some 8% of its GDP devoted to military spending, it is able to replace its staggering losses of tanks, armoured infantry vehicles and artillery only by drawing out of storage and refurbishing stocks built up in the Soviet era. Huge though these stocks are, they are not infinite.
According to most intelligence estimates, after the first two years of the war Russia had lost about 3,000 tanks and 5,000 other armoured vehicles. Oryx, a Dutch open-source intelligence site, puts the number of Russian tank losses for which it has either photo or videographic evidence currently at 3,235, but suggests the actual number is “significantly higher”.
Aleksandr Golts, an analyst at the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies, says that Vladimir Putin has the old Politburo to thank for the huge stockpiles of weapons that were built up during the cold war. He says that Soviet leaders knew that Western military kit was much more advanced than their own, so they opted for mass, churning out thousands of armoured vehicles in peacetime in case of war. Before its demise, says Mr Golts, the Soviet Union had as many armoured vehicles as the rest of the world put together.

When the then defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, boasted in December 2023 that 1,530 tanks had been delivered in the course of the year, he omitted to say that nearly 85% of them, according to an assessment by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London think-tank, were not new tanks but old ones (mainly T-72s, also T-62s and even some T-55s dating from just after the second world war) that had been taken out of storage and given a wash and brush-up.
Since the invasion, about 175 reasonably modern T-90m tanks have been sent to the front line. The IISS estimates that annual production this year could be approaching 90. However, Michael Gjerstad, an analyst with the IISS, argues that most of the T-90ms are actually upgrades of older T-90as. As those numbers dwindle, production of newly built T-90ms this year might be no more than 28. Pavel Luzin, an expert on Russian military capacity at the Washington-based Centre for European Policy Analysis, reckons that Russia can build only 30 brand-new tanks a year. When the Ukrainians captured a supposedly new T-90m last year, they found that its gun was produced in 1992.
Mr Luzin reckons that Russia’s ability to build new tanks or infantry fighting vehicles, or even to refurbish old ones, is hampered by the difficulty of getting components. Stores of components for tank production that before the war were intended for use in 2025 have already been raided, while crucial equipment, such as fuel-heaters for diesel engines, high-voltage electrical systems and infrared thermal imaging to identify targets, were all previously imported from Europe and their sale is now blocked by sanctions. The lack of high-quality ball bearings is also a constraint. Chinese alternatives are sometimes available, but are said not to meet former quality standards.
Furthermore, the old Soviet armaments supply chain no longer exists. Ukraine, Georgia and East Germany were all important centres of weapons and components manufacture. Ironically, Kharkiv was the main producer of turrets for T-72 tanks. The number of workers in the military-industrial complex has also fallen dramatically, says Mr Luzin, from about 10m to 2m, without any offsetting step-change in automation.

Another major concern is artillery-barrel production. For now, with the help of North Korea, Russia appears to have enough shells, probably about 3m this year—sufficient to outgun the Ukrainians until recently by at least 5:1 and sometimes by much more. But the downside of such high rates of fire has been the wear and tear on barrels. In some highly contested areas, the barrels of howitzers need replacing after only a few months.
Yet, says Mr Luzin, there are only two factories that have the sophisticated Austrian-made rotary forging machines (the last one was imported in 2017) needed to make the barrels. They can each produce only around 100 barrels a year, compared with the thousands needed. Russia has never made its own forging machines; they imported them from America in the 1930s and looted them from Germany after the war.
The solution has been to cannibalise the barrels from old towed artillery and fit them to self-propelled howitzers. Richard Vereker, an open-source analyst, thinks that by the start of this year about 4,800 barrels had been swapped out. How long the Russians can carry on doing this depends on the condition of the 7,000 or so that may be left. Mr Gjerstad says that with multi-launch rocket systems, such as the TOS-1A, eking out barrel life has already meant much shorter bursts of fire.
But the biggest emerging problem is with tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, which are still crucial to any offensive ground operations at scale. Although the IISS estimated that in February of this year Russia may have had about 3,200 tanks in storage to draw on, Mr Gjerstad says up to 70% of them “have not moved an inch since the beginning of the war”. A large proportion of the T-72s have been stored uncovered since the early 1990s and are probably in very poor condition. Both Mr Golts and Mr Luzin reckon that at current rates of attrition, Russian tank and infantry vehicle refurbishment from storage will have reached a “critical point of exhaustion” by the second half of next year.

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Tough article about the battle for Krynky by @StankoNastya. Ukrainian marine and TDF brigades who fought there sustained 262 KIA whose bodies were recovered and another 788 are MIA.

Greece to transfer 32 decommissioned F-16s to Ukraine

According to diplomatic sources, Greece is preparing to significantly boost its military support for Ukraine. The country plans to transfer 32 decommissioned F-16 fighter jets.
According to Konstantinos Filis, a professor of international relations who directs the Institute of Global Affairs at the American College of Greece, the decision follows a narrowly avoided incident on 6 March, when a Russian missile struck near Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis in Odesa.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine Goes All-In on Ground Robots

Ukraine’s strategic industries minister, Oleksandr Kamyshin, was in Washington last week to help the country’s state defense company open an office in the United States and to work on a number of joint ventures, including a deal with Northrop Grumman to produce medium-caliber ammunition in Ukraine.
“This year will be the year of land systems as well, unmanned land systems,” Kamyshin said at the opening of the defense office. “We’ll see more of them on the front line. That’s one of the game-changers we expect in the nearest 12 months.”
The point, Kamyshin said, is to get more troops off the front lines. “That’s the main philosophy,” he said. “We count people, and we want our people to be as far from the front line as we can.”
Kamyshin said most of the robots will be produced in Ukraine, not with Western partners, and expects Ukrainian troops to use the machines for all types of missions, including ground combat and medical evacuation. He said in a follow-up interview that the deployment of ground robots to save human lives is a contrast to Russia’s military strategy. “They save machinery. They save everything. But they send people,” he said.

But experts believe the tactical payoff for fielding UGVs at scale could be enormous. “If you are advancing through a breach, and you have concealed enemy firing posts, there is a high probability they would knock out your tanks,” Jack Watling, the senior research fellow for land warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, a London-based think tank, said in an interview in March. “If the UGVs go first but the tanks are behind them, the enemy may be detected by the UGVs—they may be killed by the UGVs if they don’t destroy them. But if they destroy them, they will reveal their position and be destroyed by the tanks.”

A Baltic diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Western training needed to improve to help Ukrainians fight in combined groups on the battalion level, about 250 to 500 troops in their military, according to U.S. Defense Department estimates. Zelensky has already lowered Ukraine’s conscription age from 27 to 25, but Western officials have urged Ukraine to tap into the country’s 18-to-24 population to fuel next year’s push. And the trainings, which last only about eight to 12 weeks, need to go on longer, the official said, to make Ukrainian troops more effective.
The Ukrainian military will also need to be trained on effectively integrating ground robots, too.
“Last year was the year of the big challenge to produce enough. This year is the year of coordination, integration, and program management,” Kamyshin said. “It’s all about training people, coordinating, and integrating.”

From basement to battlefield: Ukrainian startups create low-cost robots to fight Russia

Struggling with manpower shortages, overwhelming odds and uneven international assistance, Ukraine hopes to find a strategic edge against Russia in an abandoned warehouse or a factory basement.

An ecosystem of laboratories in hundreds of secret workshops is leveraging innovation to create a robot army that Ukraine hopes will kill Russian troops and save its own wounded soldiers and civilians.

Defense startups across Ukraine — about 250 according to industry estimates — are creating the killing machines at secret locations that typically look like rural car repair shops.

Employees at a startup run by entrepreneur Andrii Denysenko can put together an unmanned ground vehicle called the Odyssey in four days at a shed used by the company. Its most important feature is the price tag: $35,000, or roughly 10% of the cost of an imported model.

One of its drones, the car-sized Odyssey, spun on its axis and kicked up dust as it rumbled forward in a cornfield in the north of the country last month.

The 800-kilogram (1,750-pound) prototype that looks like a small, turretless tank with its wheels on tracks can travel up to 30 kilometers (18.5 miles) on one charge of a battery the size of a small beer cooler.

The prototype acts as a rescue-and-supply platform but can be modified to carry a remotely operated heavy machine gun or sling mine-clearing charges.

“Squads of robots … will become logistics devices, tow trucks, minelayers and deminers, as well as self-destructive robots,” a government fundraising page said after the launch of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces. “The first robots are already proving their effectiveness on the battlefield.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

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Early this morning, Ukrainian attack drones struck Millerovo Airfield in Rostov Oblast, a major forward airbase near the Ukrainian border used by Russian strike aircraft.

The airbase is currently burning, with multiple massive fires along the flightline.

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Russia continues to prosecute offensive operations on several areas of the front line. It is likely that the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk sector in Donetsk Oblast remains the Russian main effort and consequently has seen the highest operational tempo by Russian forces over the last month. Russian forces have continued to gain territory to the north and west of the town of Ocheretyne, expanding towards the town of Pokrovsk.

Also in the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk sector, Russia has made minor advances into the town of Niu-York, a heavily fortified area of the front line and the last remaining point of the pre-2022 line of contact.

Near the Donetsk Oblast town of Chasiv Yar, there have been no significant changes in territorial control. It has been reported that major Russian infantry assaults have deceased over the past few days and that Russian forces are largely operating in dispersed small, dismounted squads. Russian forces in this area are likely taking a tactical pause.

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1) Russia is Visually Confirmed to have lost 5,544 Infantry Fighting Vehcales and Armerd Personal Careas, IFV/APC. Here is what those losses by type look like over time. A short thread on what's changing.
2) All my data is from @warspotting my graphs use the information from their website, and my graphs are different types of equipment % of that month's losses, this enables us to look for changes in the make-up of the Russian equipment.
My first graph grouped the types into 'families' and then added a 3-month average to smooth out spicks, this is what it would look like without that.
4) The first family I will look at are the Air-Mobile Vehacales. mostly used by the VDV airborne forces. These were the Yello on the first graph, A lot was lost at the start, but since then they have become very rare, none have been lost in July so far. There are 4 types, 2 APCs and 2 IFVs, The BMD-4 is supposedly still in production, Oringe in the graph below, but the way it's declining I am sceptical of this, if it is still in production it's small numbers only.
5) Next up are the BMPs, tracked IFVs. The BMP-3 (blue) is the only one still in production. and has been about 20% of all BMP losses. BMP-1 and 2s come from storage. So far in July, the BMP-2 share is down a lot, but there are still 11 days of July to go, and it may even out. But satellite images seem to show Russian storage is out of BMP-2s so this could be the start of a trend, and will be important to follow.
6) 8-wheel BTRs are mostly APCs but the latest BTR-82 is closer to an IFV. The very old BTR-60 and 70s are still very rare, suggesting that Russia is still not using them on the front line much. Russia might have been converting old BTR-80s from storage to BTR-82s, the loss graph below seems to show a gradual chang in that direction but its slow.
7) MT-LBs are lightweight tracked Vheacales mostly used as APCs. There are a few types, most are the original MT-LB, but at the start, almost half were upgraded MT-LBVM(K) variants, since then these have become less common, espsaly since about May 2023, which might indicate that most of the initial amount of MT-LBs had been destroyed by then and Russia was reliant of MT-LBs from storage. This could be critical as Russian storage of MT-LBs now appears close to empty.

Ukraine increases defense spending by almost $12 billion in 2024

"Financing the needs of Ukrainian forces is now a top priority. Additional funds for weapons, fortifications, and salaries for servicemen are a critical component of countering the military aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine," Deputy Defense Minister Yurii Dzhyhyr said.

kyivindependent.com

The government has increased defense spending by Hr 495.3 billion (nearly $12 billion), providing funds for all Ukraine's law enforcement agencies, the Defense Ministry announced on July 19.

Volunteer recruitment up 3.5 times over past 2 months, military says

Recruitment for voluntary service in the Ukrainian army has increased by 3.5 times over the past two months compared to the period from late 2022 to spring 2024, Roman Horbach, head of Ukraine's General Staff's personnel department, said on July 19.

kyivindependent.com

Recruitment for voluntary service in the Ukrainian army has increased by 3.5 times over the past two months compared to the period from late 2022 to spring 2024, Roman Horbach, head of Ukraine's General Staff's personnel department, said on July 19.

Ukraine's military intelligence rules out 'powerful Russian offensives' in new directions

Russian troops continue to push along almost the entire front line, but new "powerful offensives" are unlikely, Ukrainian military intelligence spokesperson Andrii Yusov reported on July 19 during a national television broadcast.

kyivindependent.com

Russian troops continue to push along almost the entire front line, but new "powerful offensives" are unlikely, Ukrainian military intelligence spokesperson Andrii Yusov reported on July 19 during a national television broadcast.

According to Yusov, Ukrainian forces repelled the attacks during Russia's short-lived offensive in Kharkiv Oblast, which began on May 10 and also impacted the situation in Sumy Oblast in the northeast.

"The key target is the Ukrainian Donbas," Yusov said, adding that "the most heroic and dramatic events continue to occur there."

He noted that while Russian forces remain numerous, there have not been significant changes indicating new powerful offensives in new directions.

Video: How Ukrainian tanks stay alive in a war of drones

Ukraine aims to end 'hot stage' of war by end of 2024, Zelensky says

The world must exert pressure on Russia and force it to consider ending its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with the BBC on July 18.

kyivindependent.com

With the support of partners, Ukraine could try to end the hot stage of the war with Russia by the end of the year, President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with the BBC on July 18.

"I believe that if we are united and follow, for example, the format of the peace summit, we can end the hot stage of the war. We can try to do it by the end of this year," Zelensky said.

While promising that such a "plan will be ready," the president did not disclose any practical details on what it could entail.

Vadim Shamarin: Russian general fired amid bribery allegations

Vadim Shamarin oversaw military communications when he was accused of taking bribes from a factory.

www.bbc.com

A top Russian general has been formally dismissed from his post after being arrested on bribery charges in May, according to Russian state media.
Lt Gen Vadim Shamarin was arrested amid a wider crackdown on corruption in the defence ministry and was accused of taking "a particularly large bribe" from a telecommunications company.
Prior to his arrest he had served as deputy chief of the army’s general staff overseeing the signals corps and military communications.

 

[[icon]]

Thank you for the continued updates!

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Mysterious Russia-linked buyers amass LNG ‘dark fleet’

Acquisition spree has driven up prices of older vessels as Moscow prepares for tighter trade restrictions

www.ft.com

Mysterious buyers with suspected links to Russia have begun amassing dozens of vessels capable of carrying liquefied natural gas, in moves that suggest Moscow is expanding its “dark fleet” of energy tankers.
Shipping industry insiders say a clutch of previously unknown companies, largely registered in the United Arab Emirates, have rapidly acquired LNG vessels over the past year, driving up market prices, especially for the oldest ships.
The buying spree has echoes of how Moscow established a dark fleet of tankers to shuttle oil around the globe in the face of western sanctions, often using the UAE as a centre for energy trades. Although Russian LNG sales are less affected by western sanctions than oil, Moscow has been preparing for restrictions to tighten.

Ukraine’s cheap sensors are helping troops fight off waves of Russian drones

Sub-$500 rig helps save expensive air-defense missiles for bigger threats.

www.defenseone.com

Ukraine has a network of almost 10,000 acoustic sensors scattered around the country that locate Russian drones and send targeting information to soldiers in the field who gun them down.

Dubbed “Sky Fortress,” the concept was developed by two Ukrainian engineers in a garage who put a microphone and a cell phone on a six-foot pole to listen for one-way UAVs, said Gen. James Hecker, commander of U.S. Air Forces in Europe and Africa.

“They put about 9,500 of these within their nation and now they get very accurate information that is synthesized in a central computer and sent out to mobile fire teams. And on an iPad, they get a route of flight of these one-way UAVs coming in, and they have a triple-A [anti-aircraft] gun and a person with six hours of training can shoot these down,” Hecker told reporters at the Royal International Air Tattoo on Saturday.

About three months ago, Russia sent a salvo of 84 UAVs into Ukraine, and the system helped the defending troops shoot down all but four, Hecker said.

The system was so effective that the engineers behind the system were invited to demo it at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, Hecker said. Other countries are looking at acoustic sensors, he added, noting that Romania recently did a demo with the system.

Each sensor costs about $400 to $500, he said, which suggests that the entire network costs less than a pair of Patriot air-defense missiles.

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Updated maps showing Russian advances in New York, towards Toretsk, and north east of Chasiv Yar.

Czech initiative to deliver 100,000 artillery shells to Ukraine by summer end - Euromaidan Press

Czech FM announced that through a Czech-led initiative involving 18 countries, with 15 contributing, 100,000 artillery shells will be delivered to Ukraine in July-August, with plans for 500,000 shells by year-end.

euromaidanpress.com

On 22 July, Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský announced in Brussels that 100,000 artillery shells will be delivered to Ukraine during July and August through a Czech-led initiative. The initiative, which involves 18 countries, aims to deliver a total of 500,000 shells to Ukraine by the end of the year.

According to ČTK, Lipavský stated that 15 of the 18 countries have already fulfilled their promises and contributed funds to the initiative. He added that there are sufficient funds to deliver 500,000 shells by year-end, but they are now seeking additional funding to continue the initiative into 2025.

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The scheduled delivery:
July: 50K
August: 50K
September: 100K
October:100K
November:100K
December 100K

Germany plans to halve military aid for Ukraine

Berlin says a G7 scheme to raise $50bn from interest on frozen Russian assets will ensure other funding.

www.bbc.com

Germany is planning to nearly halve military aid for Ukraine next year, from around €8bn (£6.7bn; $8.7bn) to around €4bn, according to a draft budget approved by the government.
Finance Minister Christian Lindner said Ukraine's financing was "secure for the foreseeable future" due to a G7 group of rich nations scheme to raise $50bn from interest on frozen Russian assets.

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Remarkably clear footage of a Ukrainian attack drone flying untouched through Russian ground fire over Krasnodar Krai this morning, eventually slamming directly into Rosneft's Tuapse refinery and detonating.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Preliminary Lessons from Ukraine’s Offensive Operations, 2022–23

Russian mobilisation placed the AFU in a challenging position, where tactical successes could increasingly expose Ukraine to operational vulnerability over time. There has been a protracted debate about the efforts expended by the AFU in the defence of Bakhmut. Once depopulated by shelling, the city itself was of little value. However, the concern within the Ukrainian General Staff was that if Bakhmut fell without the AFRF culminating there, their next objective would be Chasiv Yar. Chasiv Yar not only straddles a ridge that would have facilitated further offensive operations, but if captured would also bring the rail and ground lines of communication from Kostyantynivka under Russian fire control and could bring Kramatorsk within range of Russian artillery, risking its depopulation. Furthermore, if the Russians did not culminate in Bakhmut they would force the AFU to fight for vital ground at a time when the intent was to be committing resources to offensive operations elsewhere.

Given that Russia’s assault on the city offered the prospect of an urban defence where the AFU could inflict disproportionate losses, the decision was made to mount a determined defence of the city. Initially, this decision was vindicated by high Russian losses. However, Bakhmut was a highly unfavourable position to defend, situated in low ground. Russian gains around Bakhmut meant that by February the AFRF had established artillery control over the main ground lines of communication into the city along which Ukrainian troops were rotated. At this point, the disparity in losses became unfavourable for Ukraine. Overall, approximately 10,000 Ukrainian troops were killed or severely wounded during the fight for and around Bakhmut. Russian forces attacking the city were largely composed of Wagner Group troops and mobilised convicts, with support from the VDV (Russian Airborne Forces). In total, 19,547 Wagner fighters were killed in Bakhmut, with a similar number seriously wounded. In theory, this produced a 4:1 exchange ratio in favour of Ukraine. However, 88% of Wagner losses were of mobilised convicts, with the number of trained Wagner troops killed averaging between 40 and 60 per week. Thus, while Ukraine was losing experienced personnel, Russia was expending what it considered disposable untrained troops to fix the AFU, while inflicting heavy losses with its 5:1 advantage in artillery. Militarily, it is evident that the optimal tactical course of action would have been to withdraw to a new defence line once the AFRF had artillery control of the ground lines of communication into the city.

Politically, however, the Ukrainian government believed that withdrawing from Bakhmut came with considerable risk. The decision point for the withdrawal coincided with several key decisions on the release of critical equipment, including tanks, munitions and enablers to Ukraine, mainly from Germany, for the planned offensive. The idea of the news from the front being Russia’s success against its main objective was, therefore, judged to endanger the speed with which Ukraine’s international partners would push materiel forward. Thus, the city was allowed to acquire a strategic symbolic significance that defied operational military logic.

There has been persistent discussion about the Ukrainian decision to commit some of the troops prepared for the offensive towards the Bakhmut axis, rather than concentrating forces in the south. This is, to some extent, the wrong framing of the choice facing the AFU. The allocation of ammunition to the eastern axis certainly contributed to Ukraine having insufficient fires on the southern axis. Nevertheless, since Ukrainian artillery was being held back from advancing by Russian mines and Lancets, adding more artillery pieces to the southern axis would not have axiomatically increased Ukraine’s firepower where it mattered. The same can be said of committing more troops. Given the frontages involved, pushing more companies of assault troops southwards would not have vastly increased the scale of operations that could be carried out and thus the combat power applied. As it became clear, however, that the southern axis might at best reach Tokmak – and even this objective appeared in doubt – there was a strong political direction to demonstrate progress, so that more troops were committed to the Bakhmut axis. Without sufficient mechanised forces, however, these attacks could not achieve sufficient tempo to produce encirclements of Russian troops. The eastern direction therefore devolved into fights for treelines. The real trade-off decision, therefore, was not between the commitment of units between two axes or one, but rather whether these reserves should have been committed at all, or else preserved. In hindsight, the commitment of these forces appears to have been a mistake, as Ukraine is now short of cohered units.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

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Russia continues to add barges along the Crimean Bridge to act as barriers against Ukraine's naval drones.

The latest imagery of the bridge shows more than 30 barges nearby.

Bulgaria may send surplus ammunition to Ukraine, minister says

"Some ammunition of certain types, can be provided to Ukraine. This package will also be linked to an agreement with an ally country on compensation, similar to the previous package we sent," Bulgarian acting Defense Minister Atanas Zapryanov said.

kyivindependent.com

Sofia is open to transfer surplus and unnecessary shells to Ukraine, Bulgarian acting Defense Minister Atanas Zapryanov said, Bulgarian National Radio (BNR) reported on July 22.

Bulgaria has provided Ukraine with a variety of aid since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, but pro-Russian sentiment has remained strong in the country.

Ukraine's top diplomat to visit China this week to talk peace, Kyiv says

Ukraine's top diplomat will visit China on Tuesday at the invitation of Beijing for talks that Kyiv said would focus on how to end Russia's war in Ukraine and on a possible Chinese role in reaching a settlement.
Nearly 29 months since Russia's full-scale invasion, Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba will discuss bilateral ties at talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi during a trip to China from July 23 to 25, the Ukrainian foreign ministry said.

Exclusive: Illicit chip flows to Russia seen slowing, but China, Hong Kong remain transshipment hubs

Semiconductors and other restricted goods shipped through China and Hong Kong to fuel Russia's war effort fell by a fifth this year previously undisclosed U.S. Commerce Department data shows, but Hong Kong remains a global sanctions evasion hotspot.
Transshipments through Hong Kong of Common High Priority Items (CHPL) — advanced components including microelectronics deemed by the U.S. and European Union as likely to be used for Russia's war in Ukraine — fell 28% between January and May, a U.S. Commerce Department official told Reuters.
For the same period, transshipments of those items through mainland China, excluding Hong Kong, fell 19%, the official said.
Reuters is reporting the previously undisclosed numbers for the first time.

Both Hong Kong and China are seen by the U.S. government as key global nodes for Russia to source materials for its military, including semiconductors and drone parts.
"I think there's some cause for being at least optimistic that we have been able to slow down some of this trade," the official said, but added: "China is still our number one concern."

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the dip in illicit flows was the result of several factors, including aggressive enforcement by U.S. authorities, as well as engagement with companies whose products are being transshipped.
"We are talking to any company whose items are showing up on the battlefield," the official said, without giving names.
The official declined to share the full data set with Reuters, citing the need to protect the department's access to the information. "What I can say is we have confidence in the source related to imports into Russia.”

Ukraine Strikes Preliminary $20 Billion Debt Restructuring Deal

Ukraine said Monday that it had struck a preliminary deal with a group of international private creditors to restructure more than $20 billion of the debt it owes them, a step that would save the war-torn country billions and preserve funds to support its battered armed forces.
The creditors agreed to write off more than a third of the nominal value of the government bonds they hold, which would allow Ukraine to save $11.4 billion over the next three years, the Ukrainian government said. The deal has been approved by the International Monetary Fund, which has made its financial assistance to Ukraine conditional on the country’s ability to reduce its debt.

After Russia invaded in February 2022, Ukraine’s creditors agreed to suspend payments for servicing the debt. An agreement with the private bondholders was due to expire on Aug. 1, prompting negotiations with the Ukrainian government to restructure the debt or extend the moratorium.
Negotiations appeared set to fail as both sides proposed very different levels of debt write-off. The Ukrainian parliament last week passed a law allowing the government to postpone external debt payments. A preliminary deal was finally announced on Monday, just 10 days before the debt standstill was due to expire.
The deal is important because a Ukrainian default would have likely resulted in a reputational hit for Kyiv, which is looking to attract foreign investors to help sustain its economy and rebuild the country. “We are on the path to restoring debt sustainability,” Mr. Shmyhal, the prime minister, said.
The deal will allow Ukraine to continue spending most of its state revenue to support the army instead of diverting vast amounts to service its external debt. The Ukrainian government announced last week that it would increase military spending by nearly $12 billion this year.

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Video of the Ukrainian Wild Hornets' Queen Hornet FPV, which they say is the largest Ukrainian FPV. It can carry a 6 kg payload up to 17 km and 65% of its components are Ukrainian. It can be used in a variety of mission sets, including bomber, kamikaze, remote mining, resupply, as a retransmitter, or to carry kamikaze FPVs.

Ukrainian naval drone attacks force Russian fleet out of Crimea

While Ukraine has stepped up its attacks on the Crimean peninsula, annexed by Russia in 2014, the Kremlin is continuing to redeploy its military presence in the Black Sea. This change, corroborated by multiple sources, is due to the significant damage caused in Crimea by the long-range Western missiles used by Ukrainians, as well as the rise of naval drones, one of Kyiv's specialties.
Several American and Ukrainian statements made in early July even suggested that the Russian Black Sea fleet was in the process of leaving Crimea. On July 8, John Kirby, spokesperson for the National Security Council, said, "They sunk the last cruise-missile capable warship in the port of Sevastopol." On July 15, Ukrainian Navy Chief, Vice Admiral Oleksiy Neizhpapa, stated: "The Russian navy's Black Sea Fleet has been forced to rebase nearly all its combat-ready warships from occupied Crimea to other locations."
Russia's adjustment of its naval setup has not been officially confirmed by the Kremlin. Le Monde has found that some warships remain in the port of Sevastopol. The Kremlin's forceful response on July 18, claiming to have destroyed around 10 naval drones, bears witness to this. However, there is a noticeable continuous decrease in the number of Russian ships in the port of Sevastopol, according to satellite image analysis conducted for Le Monde by Masae Analytics, over a period from March 21 to July 14.

This development coincides with another move, identified on July 3, and also backed up by satellite imagery: The arrival, for the first time, of a Russian tugboat in Ochamchire, a port in Abkhazia – a separatist region of Georgia on the Black Sea coast. "In my view, this is a big development in Russo-Ukraine war in Black Sea, part of that big picture," said British analyst H. I. Sutton, specializing in open-source intelligence, who detected the move.
Previously, this Russian patrol boat was anchored in the port of Novorossiysk, on Russian territory, where Russia began sheltering many of its warships previously deployed in Sevastopol. The vessel disappeared from satellite images on July 1, only to reappear in Georgian waters on July 3, some 400 kilometers further south. This ship was the first spotted in Ochamchire, but others may follow, said experts.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Major General: Ukraine using mobilization to patch holes in front line

While Ukraine's mobilization goals, aimed at forming 10 new brigades, have been ambitious, in reality those mobilized are being used to plug gaps on the front line, reservist Major General Riho Ühtegi said Monday.

news.err.ee

While Ukraine's mobilization goals, aimed at forming 10 new brigades, have been ambitious, in reality those mobilized are being used to plug gaps on the front line, reservist Major General Riho Ühtegi said Monday.
Speaking to ETV show "Ukraina Stuudio," Maj. Gen. Ühtegi, a former Defense League commander, said Ukraine is experiencing a personnel shortage.

Rounds of mobilization have not significantly alleviated this issue so far, he went on, adding that the leadership's goals with the new mobilization law have been substantial.

Maj. Gen. Ühtegi said: "They have hoped to form 10 new brigades – a brigade consists of about 5,000 to 6,000 men."

"However, up to now we have been seeing that those mobilized are essentially being used to patch holes on the front line in zones where units have suffered significant losses," he went on.

"The current situation is that Ukrainian units are actually below strength; units at the front are allowed to operate at about 60 percent capacity. Often these units exaggerate their numbers since otherwise they would be facing reformation or other consequences," Ühtegi said.

Russia’s Cyber Campaign Shifts to Ukraine’s Frontlines

The harsher reality is that Russia’s intelligence services have adapted their posture in cyberspace to the demands of a long war. Mounting evidence, stretching back to the months preceding Ukraine’s counteroffensive in 2023, indicates that multiple Russian cyber units have shifted their sights away from strategic civilian targets toward soldiers’ computers and mobiles endpoints in order to enable tactical military objectives on Ukraine’s frontlines. This change in operational focus has been cross-cutting, with Russian military intelligence (GRU) and the domestic security service (FSB) – long renowned for rivalry and mistrust – unifying their earlier disjointed cyber efforts and systematising a series of tradecraft adaptations intended to increase their military effectiveness.

This has been a relative shift in priorities rather than a complete overhaul of Russia's wider strategy. There remain patterns of operational activity indicative of sustained interest in Ukrainian critical infrastructure objects that would hold no immediate intelligence value, and therefore likely represent preparations for future sabotage. What is clear, however, is that Moscow has rebalanced its overarching concept of operations to emphasise targets that can provide more direct and tangible battlefield advantages to its conventional forces.

The main takeaway for Western policymakers is that mobile devices have become a critical centre of gravity for Russia’s cyber campaign in Ukraine. The war’s technology-dense and sensor-rich frontlines have placed a premium on the ability to collect signals from soldiers’ devices and the digital networks that connect them. With new technologies continuing to shape the battlefield and drive tactical innovations on the front lines, these types of operations are only likely to grow more common as the war continues.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine Achieving Low-Cost Kills Against Russia's Attack Drones

Russia has employed thousands of Iranian-developed Shahed delta-winged attack drones as slow-moving cruise missiles in a bid to force Ukraine to burn through its stocks of ready-to-fire missiles. When Moscow first employed the tactic it was effective, but now Ukraine’s air defense forces have adapted to deal with the threat, says Gen. James Hecker, Commander of U.S. Air Forces in Europe and Commander of NATO’s Allied Air Command.

“Ukraine is actually doing a pretty good job there [dealing with one-way attack drones],” Hecker said at the Royal International Air Tattoo here on July 20. “They have their backs up against the wall, so they need to develop.”

Hecker provided significant new details on Ukraine’s low-cost acoustic sensor array. Called Skyfortress, the system uses 9,500 sensors located across the Ukrainian countryside to detect threats.

“Their idea was to put a cellphone on a 6-ft. [tall] pole and put a microphone next to it and listen for the one-way [UAVs] that come their way,” Hecker told journalists. “They get very accurate information synthesized in a central computer and sent out to all the fire teams who have an iPad showing the route of flight of these one-way UAVs coming in.”

The simplicity of the system means that conscripts with just a few hours of training can be employed to engage and shoot down the systems.

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Interesting article, but I feel it might oversimplify the use of acoustic sensors for air defense.

A couple of points here
First, acoustic detection of airborne targets is nothing new. It was used before WWII. But acoustic propagation in the atmosphere experience significant attenuation because of weather conditions (eg wind and rain).
This is why before the invention of radar, the mood was that “the bomber will always get through”.
Second, Ukraine has installed a network of microphones to monitor specific avenues that are difficult for radars to monitor (e.g. river beds - which, in the presence of trees, are perfect “avenues” for low-flying drones and missiles).
But microphones by themselves are not sufficient. You need a system that positively identify an incoming drone as such (ie it distinguishes them from random noise and similarly sounding objects, such as chainsaws, to minimize false alarms and avoid misses). This is Shazam
That is, a library of acoustic “signatures” and an algorithm that establishes whether statistically the captures sound is similar or different from those in the library
In conclusion, this systems of acoustic sensors (microphones) can be an effective complements for existing sensors (radars and others using the electromagnetic spectrum). But by themselves would have significant limitations.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

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1/6 @KSE_Institute July Chartbook: “Stepping Up Economic Sanctions Is Urgently Needed To Constrain Russia.” Energy sanctions continue to face challenges, while Russia's economy and finances remain stable.
2/6 In June 2024, ~90% of Russian crude oil exports used shadow fleet tankers, further weakening the G7/EU price cap. Consequently, Russia's oil export earnings rose by 22% in H1 of 2024 vs. the same period in 2023, when sanctions were more effective.
3/6 Sanctions on shadow tankers removed many from operations but didn't impact Russian oil prices significantly. Of the 55 shadow fleet tankers sanctioned by the US, EU, and UK, 41 remain idle. Scaling up targeted sanctions & punishing potential violators is crucial.
4/6 Russia's macroeconomic stability in H1 2024: trade balance at $68B (+19% vs. H1 2023), current account surplus at $41B (+74%). Lower imports and a smaller deficit strengthened the ruble. Interest rate hikes and less effective energy sanctions maintained stability.
5/6 Russia isn't facing major fiscal constraints. H1 2024 federal budget deficit reached 929B rubles, 58% of full-year target, 60% lower than H1 2023. Higher oil/gas (+69%) and non-oil/gas revenues (+27%) covered increased spending (+22%), driven by higher war costs.
6/6 Russia's economic vulnerabilities remain. Tightened sanctions on energy exports could expose these weaknesses. Since the invasion, Russia spent $54B of NWF liquid assets, leaving only gold and yuan. With $300B in Central Bank reserves immobilized, options are constrained.

German general says Russia could attack NATO in 5-8 years

Lieutenant General Carsten Breuer, Chief of Defence of Germany, sees a growing danger in Russia's military build-up.

Source: Breuer in an interview with the Sächsische Zeitung, as cited by n-tv

Details: Breuer said that it is now clear that "the Russian army is orientated towards the West".

"In five to eight years, Moscow's armed forces will be equipped with the material and personnel to attack NATO territory," Breuer said.

He added that this estimate is based on his analysis, information from allied intelligence services and armed forces, and statements by Kremlin ruler Vladimir Putin.

"The Russian army produces about 1,000-1,500 additional tanks every year. The five largest European NATO member states have only half that number in their arsenal," said Breuer.

Russian attack damages energy facility, cuts power in Ukraine's Sumy region

A Russian overnight air attack damaged an energy facility in Ukraine's northern Sumy region, cutting power to 50,400 consumers, Ukrainian officials said.
Ukraine's air force said on Telegram that its air defence systems destroyed seven out of the eight Russia-launched drones.
Russia also sent a Kh-69 guided air missile, the air force said, but added that as a result of its forces' countermeasures, the missile "did not reach its target".

Indonesia seeks Russian oil for the first time in years, sources say

Indonesian state-controlled refiner Pertamina has added Russian oil grades to its tender lists to buy September crude, three traders said on Monday.
Pertamina has not purchased Russian oil for years, having taken a step back since the start of Russian-Ukraine military conflict in 2022, though Indonesia did not join Western sanctions against Russia.
Pertamina last purchased ESPO Blend and Sokol oil from Russia more than 10 years ago, LSEG data shows.

One of the sources familiar with Pertamina's plans said the company may only buy Russian oil if it was sold under the price cap regulation.
The cap allows Western shippers and insurers to participate in Russian oil trading provided that the oil is sold for less than $60 a barrel.

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️The number of Ukrainians opposed to territorial concessions to Russia in exchange for peace has continued to fall in recent months, reaching 55% in May, according to a poll released by the Kyiv International Institute for Sociology (KIIS) on July 23.

55% of Ukrainians oppose territorial concessions to achieve peace, poll finds

When asked about a possible set of acceptable conditions for peace, the highest number of respondents (62%) said that a situation in which Ukraine regains all occupied territories and becomes a member of the EU but refuses to join NATO would have the broadest level of support.

kyivindependent.com

The number of Ukrainians opposed to territorial concessions to Russia in exchange for peace has continued to fall in recent months, reaching 55% in May, according to a poll released by the Kyiv International Institute for Sociology (KIIS) on July 23.

Similar KIIS polls conducted in February and December 2023 found that 65% and 74% were opposed, respectively.

Correspondingly, the number of respondents who said they would accept ceding territory in order to "achieve peace and preserve independence" has risen to 32% in May, the poll found.

There was some geographical variation in the results, with the highest level of opposition to any kind of territorial concession coming from the west of the country (60%) and the lowest from the south (46%).

When asked about a possible set of acceptable conditions for peace, the highest number of respondents (62%) said that a situation in which Ukraine regains all occupied territories and becomes a member of the EU but refuses to join NATO would have the broadest level of support.

Another proposal, in which Ukraine de facto ceded control of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, as well as Crimea, but regained full control of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts and joined NATO and the EU, came in second place at 53%.

Despite the shifting attitudes over territorial concessions over time, "Ukrainians are against "peace on any terms,'" said KIIS Director Anton Hrushetskyi.

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Around 650,000 Russians who fled after the invasion are still abroad. They present a political and economic headache for the Kremlin, and their absence increases tensions in the labor market at home.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

DTEK aims to recover 60-70% of its power generation capacity by October

By October, DTEK, Ukraine's largest private energy company, plans to restore 60-70% of the power generation it lost as a result of Russia’s mass shelling this spring, according to DTEK Executive Director Dmytro Sakharuk.

kyivindependent.com

By October, DTEK, Ukraine's largest private energy company, plans to restore 60-70% of the power generation it lost as a result of Russia’s mass shelling this spring, according to DTEK Executive Director Dmytro Sakharuk.

"We lost 90% of our generation. We plan to restore 60-70%, with our own funds, and using old equipment from European stations," he said at the forum “The future of Ukrainian energy.”

Saharuk said that all DTEK power plants are currently without walls and roofs following attacks in recent months. Even if restored, the equipment will not work at low temperatures.

He estimated the current needs for restoration to be at $350-400 million.

Russia building forces in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, military says

At the same time, there is no indication yet that Russia is preparing for another offensive in the area, said Dmytro Lykhovii, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Tavria group of forces.

kyivindependent.com

Russia is building up its forces in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, adding at least 2,000 more troops there within the last few weeks, Dmytro Lykhovii, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Tavria group of forces, said on national television on July 23.

At the same time, there is no indication yet that Russia is preparing for another offensive in the area, Lykhovii said.

While Russia has amassed some 90,000 troops in the area, intelligence suggests that a significant change in the nature of hostilities in the oblast would be unlikely, he added.

Russian military intelligence officer injured in Moscow car bomb attack, Kommersant says

A car bomb injured an officer from Russia's military intelligence agency in northern Moscow on Wednesday, the Kommersant newspaper reported.
Russia's interior ministry said that two people were injured in a blast caused by the detonation of an unidentified device and said that a criminal case had been opened.

Vadym Sukharevsky, the man in charge of Ukraine’s drones

Ukraine hopes its new drone command will help it regain the upper hand

www.economist.com

Freshly installed as the head of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, the first position of its kind in the world, Colonel Sukharevsky is shaping history once again. The 39-year-old commander has long stood out as a new type of military boss: a technological whizz, whose focus on electronic warfare and drones as a battalion and then brigade commander caught the attention of those at the very top. But now he must deliver across the board in the fastest-developing arena of war. He must do so against a much better resourced enemy, backed by Iran, North Korea and probably China and in a uniquely challenging environment of jamming and other electronic warfare; and with a low and uncertain budget. He believes he can do it.

His new command office in downtown Kyiv hums with the chaotic buzz of an underfunded startup. The air smells of fresh paint, coffee and shisha tobacco, to which Colonel Sukharevsky appears addicted. Wires, drone-boxes and computers lie scattered over the floor. Swords, an extensive collection of daggers, and Warhammer models, which he glues together in spare evenings, complete the eccentric image of a modern-day Cossack hetman. Speaking quickly, his sentences punctuated by an infectious laugh, Colonel Sukharevsky recounts how he became obsessed by the potential of unmanned systems in the Donbas in 2014. He realised that he needed eyes in the sky to help guide artillery. His actual drone war started in 2016. “Soon, I wasn’t firing a single mortar without the sights of a reconnaissance drone. By 2017 we were using UAVs to drop grenades.” He later observed the Russians were adopting his tactics, a pattern that persists today.

Russia’s full-scale invasion marked a step change in drone warfare. “February 2022 was the start of school for everyone,” says Colonel Sukharevsky. Initially it was Ukraine that got ahead, developing an army of cheap, small drones to counter Russia’s overwhelming artillery and missile advantage. That has since changed. Now, enemy drones outnumber Ukrainian ones six to one. But superior tactics and innovation still keep Ukraine competitive. Ukraine tends to be first in developing and adopting new technologies, driven by a policy of diversification. Russia’s advantage in mass production means it can adapt and scale up much faster. The pace of change is frenetic, with feedback loops meaning that some software is updated every few hours. By the time Russian drones reach the front lines, Ukraine has sometimes already developed counter-measures, Colonel Sukharevsky claims. “Quantitatively Russia is ahead, but qualitatively we are keeping them at parity.”

Colonel Sukharevsky says drones will not overturn the fundamental principles of warfare. The primary role of artillery or infantry are undiminished, he says: “Military operations still depend on combined arms, and other kinds of troops will continue to be just as important.” Drones will serve as a complement to traditional forces, offering better reconnaissance and more precise strike capability at a reduced risk to soldiers. The commander dismisses headlines promising “killer drone swarms” operating independent of human control. Yes, Ukraine already employs AI to optimise functionality—for example if the link between drone and pilot is lost. But the use, he says, is specialised and limited. “As a commander I will never relinquish the bulk of decision making to artificial intelligence… in the distant future we need such a decision, we’ll look at it carefully. But you don’t need ai to create swarms.”

 

[Chadstroma]

Splash one Frogfoot. With video

MSN

 

[Chadstroma]

‘I know we will win – and how’: Ukraine’s top general on turning the tables against Russia

Exclusive: Col Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi weighs Ukraine’s recent setbacks, counter strikes and the changing face of Europe’s biggest war since 1945

www.theguardian.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Denmark, Netherlands say 14 Leopard tanks will be dispatched to Ukraine within weeks

The Netherlands and Denmark have promised to send 14 more refitted Leopard 2A4 tanks to Ukraine this summer as the two countries look to ramp up military support, Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans said Thursday.

In a statement announcing the donation, the Dutch government said that 12 of the tanks have already been refitted and verified by Germany’s Rheinmetall with the final two about to go through final testing.

“All 14 tanks will be delivered simultaneously before the end of the summer,” the Netherlands’ Defense Ministry said.

Russia cracks down on personal phones on the frontline

The Russian parliament adopted a law Wednesday hiking the penalty for personal use of internet devices by frontline soldiers fighting in Ukraine.

The law classifies possession of devices that allow military personnel to store or send video, photos or geolocation data on the internet as a grave offense, punishable by up to 15 days detention.

It also forbids the transmission of any information that could be used to identify any Russian troops and their whereabouts.

Ukrainian OSINT agency Molfar, which analyzes Russian activities on the battlefield daily, told POLITICO they have observed a decrease in the data published by the Russian military on social media for some time.

“At the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the situation was radically different, with many posts on social media from the Russian military, who published their locations and other sensitive information,” Maksym Zrazhevskyi, head of research at Molfar said.

Romania confirms Russian drones in its airspace

Russia launched 38 Shahed kamikaze drones at Ukraine overnight, three of which strayed into Romania's airspace, Romanian and Ukrainian ministries have confirmed.

Fitch downgrades Ukraine further into default zone over $20 billion debt agreement

Fitch downgraded Ukraine's credit rating further into default territory at "C" from "CC" on Wednesday, citing a recently concluded in-principle agreement with a group of creditors to restructure $20 billion of international bonds.
A "C" rating indicates Fitch's view that a default or default-like process for Ukraine has begun.

Spain to provide additional Hawk air defense battery to Ukraine

Spain will provide Ukraine with another Hawk air defense battery in September, Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles said during a video call with her Ukrainian counterpart, Rustem Umerov, on July 24.

Ukraine has been increasingly calling on its allies to bolster its sky shield amid unceasing Russian aerial strikes against population centers and infrastructure sites.

During the call, Robles also said that her country had already trained 5,000 Ukrainian military service members and hosted Ukrainian orphans and relatives of soldiers.

Developed in the U.S. in the late 1950s, the Hawk is a medium-range, surface-to-air guided missile that provides air defense coverage against low-to-medium-altitude aircraft.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

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Finnish Air Force F/A-18s up to protect Romanian airspace last night during russian attacks on Odessa.

Russia will be forced to scale down its attacks in a month and a half, Ukrainian commander says

Russia will be unable to maintain the scale of its attacks in multiple sectors for a long time because its "capabilities are not unlimited," General Oleksandr Pivnenko, the commander of Ukraine's National Guard, said in an interview with Ukrinform published on July 25.

Moscow's troops have been putting ever-growing pressure on Ukraine along the front, attempting to break through Ukrainian defenses near Pokrovsk while capturing the eastern part of Chasiv Yar.

Ukraine was also forced to withdraw from Krynky on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.

Kyiv's forces managed to halt the Russian advance near Kharkiv but Russia continues to hold a handful of settlements in the area.

"The enemy's offensive capabilities are not unlimited, considering the losses they suffer," Pivnenko told Ukrinform.

"In another month and a half, they will not be able to conduct active assaults in many directions at once and will switch to defense."

Pivnenko stressed that at a time when Russia will be replenishing its troops, Ukraine must pay attention to preparing its own reserves and armament. If Ukraine plans "one step ahead of Russia, then everything will be fine," he added.

"The most important thing that can be done now is training, development of training centers, procurement of weapons and military equipment, production of military equipment, drones, armored vehicles, air defense systems, man-portable air defense systems, and ammunition," Pivnenko said.

Moscow currently fields some 520,000 troops in Ukraine and plans to raise this number to 690,000 by the end of the year, according to Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi.

"When it comes to equipment, there is a ratio of 1:2 or 1:3 in their favor," Syrskyi told the Guardian.

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DeepState reports further advances on the Pokrovsk axis, attributed to 's shortage of manpower, artillery pieces, & ammo, but says the 31st Brigade troops escaped the pocket.
The Ukrainian analytical project DeepState reported minor Russian gains south of Niu-York over the past few days. The Russians are apparently trying to widen their thrust into the town to protect their flanks and enable easier movement to/from Niu-York. More ambitiously, reaching Sukha Balka and/or advancing past Zalizne would allow Russia to attack Niu-York from additional directions and threaten its rear.

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A Ukrainian Telegram channel shared photos of a previously unidentified Russian one-way attack UAV downed in Kyiv Oblast. Interestingly, the serial number begins with “Ы,” similar to a Russian-assembled variant of the Shahed-136, suggesting this new UAV may also be made by Russia’s plant in Alabuga.

The UAV also contains two 3G/4G antennas and a SIM card that resembles a Kyivstar SIM card previously recovered in a Russian-assembled Shahed-136 (see below). The channel also indicated the UAV’s fuselage is covered in radar-absorbing material. (Ukrainian officials have previously said Russia has done the same on Shahed-136 fuselages.)

Kyiv uncovers suspected Russian agent network planning sabotage in Ukraine, Europe

Ukrainian law enforcement agencies cracked down on a Russian-run network planning arson attacks in populated areas of Ukraine and the EU, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) said on July 25.

The perpetrators intended to target shopping centers, gas stations, pharmacies, and markets in Ukraine, Poland, and the Baltic countries on the instruction of Russian intelligence services, according to the statement.

Western intelligence services have warned about increasing Russian sabotage operations across Europe to sow social instability and undermine support for Ukraine.

The SBU said that the group consisted of 19 people based in Ivano-Frankivsk, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. They were to be dispatched abroad under falsified documents, the agency added.

Ukrainian ambassador says Poland is delivering its 45th military aid package to Ukraine - Euromaidan Press

Since early 2022, Poland has supplied Ukraine with various types of military equipment worth over $4 billion.

euromaidanpress.com

Warsaw is delivering its 45th military aid package to Kyiv, which includes a significant amount of ammunition, Ukrainian Ambassador to Poland and current Ambassador to the Czech Republic, Vasyl Zvarych, told Ukrinform in an interview.

According to the diplomat, Poland has already delivered 44 packages to Ukraine with various types of weapons, military equipment, and ammunition since the beginning of 2022. The total value of the aid to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, including medical supplies, has exceeded $4 billion.

Kherson Oblast fortifications are 97% complete, Shmyhal says

Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal carried out an inspection of the construction of fortifications in Kherson Oblast, he said on July 25.

"In Kherson Oblast, the construction works are complete at 97%," Shmyhal said on his Telegram channel.

The authorities have long been criticized for slow progress in building up fortifications along the front lines. The criticism only grew stronger after Russian forces broke into the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast in May.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

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Another legendary Ukrainian brigade, the 80th Air Assault, has gone public to plead higher command not to fire their brigade commander, for whom the lives of his personnel is the highest priority. Second time this is happening (first was 24th Mechanised) in less than a month.

As F-16s Arrive, Ukraine Still Faces Steep Challenges in the Skies

Russia has been saturating the skies over Ukraine with surveillance drones, exploiting gaps in air-defense systems, to launch increasingly sophisticated attacks on Ukrainian positions. Its dominance in the air along parts of the front has allowed it to bombard Ukrainian positions with hundreds of powerful guided bombs every day, helping its ground forces to make slow and costly gains.
Ukraine’s strategy was to counter Russia in the air war with the aid of long-coveted F-16 fighter jets from the West that it says it will deploy this summer.
But the assaults on Ukrainian air bases underscore Russia’s determination to limit the impact of the planes even before they enter the fight. They also highlight the challenges Ukraine faces as it prepares to deploy the sophisticated aircraft for the first time.
Ukraine is hoping the F-16s, which come with powerful electronic warfare systems and an array of other weapons, can be used in coordination with other Western weapons like Patriot air-defense systems to expand the area deemed too dangerous for Russian pilots to fly. They also hope the jets will add another layer of protection for Ukrainian cities and critical infrastructure from relentless missile and drone attacks.
But a shortage of trained pilots and a limited number of jets will constrain the immediate impact, experts say.
“Russia has had so much time to fortify its defenses, especially along the frontline areas,” said Hunter Stoll, a defense analyst at RAND, a research organization. “The F-16s and their pilots will face stiff resistance from Russian air defenses, both on the ground and in the sky.”

In addition to the Russian attacks on the Ukrainian airfields, Ukraine will also be constrained by the small number of trained pilots, according to Ukrainian and U.S. military officials. About 20 airmen in the various U.S., Dutch and Danish training pipelines are expected to be ready this year, according to U.S. officials.
Air commanders say they typically allot at least two pilots per aircraft — for crew rest, training and other matters. So that would allow Ukraine to fly only about 10 F-16s, at most, on combat missions this year.
Another major limiting factor, these officials say, is the number of trained maintenance and support personnel on the ground to keep the F-16s flying.
“It’s not just the pilots you have to have,” Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr., the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and a longtime F-16 pilot, said last month. “Maintenance is also a key part of that, and training the maintainers.”
Gen. Serhii Holubtsov, chief of aviation of Ukraine’s air force, said Ukrainians “do not wear rose-colored glasses” and understand that the F-16 is “not a panacea.”
The strategy, he told Donbas Realiy, a branch of Radio Liberty, could be thought of in three phases — “crawl, walk, run” — and it would take time.
“We haven’t learned to crawl yet,” he said.
Before the jets can start to play a role in shaping the battlefield, Ukraine needs to be sure they can be protected. While Russia has been attacking Ukrainian airfields since the first hours of the war, the early July attack on Myrhorod was different, Ukrainian officials said.
“The enemy came up with a new tactic,” Mr. Ihnat said.
Specifically, he said, the Russians were improving missiles and reconnaissance drones, “making it so that we cannot influence them with electronic warfare.”
They are also preprogramming surveillance drones to fly deep into Ukraine without emitting telltale electronic signatures, making them harder to detect.

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As claimed by Russian sources, total Russian/Wagner losses in Mali are close to 100 people. “80 killed and more than 15 captured.”

Commander of the 13th assault detachment, call sign "Rusich":

"At the moment, in the territory of the Republic of Mali, in the area of the city of Tin-Zouatin, the Malian armed forces are conducting an operation with the support of the Wagner.

To be specific, they were supported by the 13th assault detachment, in which, unfortunately, I commanded, but due to circumstances I left the company. But my people were still there and were finishing the contract.

At the moment, according to my information, more than 80 people - 200, as a result of this operation. (200 is a term used as "killed".) More than 15 people are in captivity. This are our Russian comrades, servicemen who represent the interests of Russia.

I, the commander of the 13th assault detachment, contacted people from the African Corps and the Special Operations Forces, I am trying to convey a message to the Deputy Minister of Defense.

I simply ask for help from the Ministry of Defense, from the Government of our Motherland in this matter. In turn, I am ready to provide myself and all those people who are ready to follow me absolutely free of charge, in order to save the boys. I am ready to gather all the people who are ready to fly there free of charge without any insurance payments, I will hire a charter and fly to Mali together with these people in order to rescue our guys."

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Russia continued to make small but steady gains on the Pokrovsk axis over the past couple days, according to the Ukrainian analytical project DeepState.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

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Over a year and a half ago, I wrote multiple posts and threads about the persistence of Soviet-style command within the Ukrainian army. At that time, many dismissed my concerns, arguing that war is not the time for change, or outright attacked me for criticism. Unfortunately, the situation has only worsened since then, and the problem remains systemic. This issue existed before General Zaluzhnyi, continued during his tenure, and has deteriorated further under General Syrskyi. Despite promises to improve the situation, Syrskyi has increased authoritative pressure on commanding officers to hold ground with the same limited resources, and the results are evident.

Earlier this year, I correctly noted with my team that the Kharkiv operation was likely a diversion and that the main focus would remain on Donbas. While our troops have been trying to retake Hlyboke and have spent months holding the Krynki foothold (despite unclear objectives given our limited resources), Russians have systematically exhausted our brigades in Donbas. The Russian approach is not particularly innovative: they send small tactical units against Ukrainian defenses daily until one position falls, then exploit the success. Senior Ukrainian commanders have attempted to adopt similar tactics, forgetting that we have far fewer people and unreliable Western support that may or may not arrive on time, if at all.

Is it better on the Russian side? Absolutely not. My team has recordings of multiple radio communications from the Russian side, revealing threats of execution or denial of medical evacuation if their troops refuse to advance. It is far worse for the Russians, but they have significant advantages in personnel, equipment, vehicles, artillery, and air force. They can afford such tactics—we cannot. Moreover, the Russian army in 2024 is much smarter and more experienced than the disorganized troops we saw in February 2022. The only way to halt their advancement is to outsmart them by being more resourceful and careful, aiming to preserve our personnel when the situation requires it.

It is still possible to break the spine of the Russian army, which has severe logistical problems, dwindling availability of preserved vehicles, reliance on unarmored transportation, unmotivated personnel, and artillery barrel replacement bottlenecks. Additionally, many internal economic problems take time to manifest.

However, the window of opportunity is getting smaller. Unless radical changes are made, we are heading toward the most unfavorable scenario of all: forced negotiations, stalemate, minimization of Western aid, re-armament of the Russian army, and a new round of the war with much more unfavorable outcomes for Ukraine, leading to occupation and forced assimilation.

Ukrainian troops say Russia has driven them out of 2 more eastern Donetsk villages

Russian forces have overrun two front-line villages in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, a Ukrainian army sergeant said Monday, after relentless assaults that are part of a Kremlin summer push to overwhelm battlefield defenses there.

“They pressed non-stop” to capture Vovche and Prohres, the chief sergeant of Ukraine’s 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade, Oleh Chaus, told Radio Svaboda. “They sent in a large number of troops, which had not previously been used.”

Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed in recent days that it had taken control of the villages, but the Ukrainian General Staff made no official comment.

The villages lie about 30 kilometers (20 miles) northwest of Avdiivka, a Donetsk city that the Russian army seized in February after a long battle. That victory was the Kremlin’s last major triumph in the war that is now in its third year.

Russia’s onslaught, fueled by its heavy advantage in soldiers and weaponry, has repeatedly forced the Ukrainians to pull back from defensive positions to avoid being captured or killed.

Oleksandr Shyrshyn, the 47th brigade’s deputy battalion commander, confirmed to local media that the villages had been taken. He blamed poor training of troops, low abilities of officers, motivation and inadequate weapons for the setbacks.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

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The commanders from the Ukrainian 80th Air Assault Brigade made a public statement in support of their brigade commander, Colonel Emil Ishkulov, who is reportedly going to be removed from his post.

According to Ukrainska Pravda sources, Colonel Emil Ishkulov refused to perform the combat task which was "disproportionate to the forces of the brigade" and would likely result in heavy losses.

Video: With Ukrainian infantry facing Russians near Toretsk

Russia increasingly moving military equipment to Zaporizhzhia Oblast, official says

The transport of Russian military equipment toward Zaporizhzhia Oblast through occupied Mariupol in Donetsk Oblast has "sharply increased" in scale, said Petro Andriushchenko, an adviser to the city's exiled mayor, on July 29.

The news comes days after a Ukrainian military spokesperson confirmed that Russia is building up its forces in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, sending at least 2,000 more troops there within the last few weeks.

While Russia has amassed some 90,000 troops in the area, intelligence suggests that a significant change in the nature of hostilities in the oblast would be unlikely, the spokesperson added at the time.

The Russian military moved equipment – mainly tracked vehicles – toward Zaporizhzhia Oblast over the weekend, pausing near the villages of Manhush and Nikolske in Donetsk Oblast, according to Andriushchenko.

Ukrainian cyberattack targets Russia's central bank, source says

Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) on July 29 carried out a cyberattack against the Russian central bank, a source in the agency told the Kyiv Independent.

Russia inches toward strategic supply route in Ukraine's east

Russian forces are focusing their heaviest assaults near Ukraine's strategic eastern city of Pokrovsk, Kyiv said on Monday, as Moscow bears down on a key Ukrainian supply route more than 29 months since its full-scale invasion.
Fighting on the Pokrovsk front was the fiercest anywhere in the war-scarred east, the General Staff said in a regular battlefield update, adding that Ukraine had fought off 52 Russian assaults there in the last 24 hours.
Pokrovsk, a transport hub with a pre-war population of 61,000, lies on a main road that serves as an important supply route to other embattled Ukrainian-held outposts, such as the towns of Chasiv Yar and Kostiantynivka in the Donetsk region. Some residents have fled during the war, but others have settled there after fleeing elsewhere.
"As of today, the city is 20 km (12 miles) from the front line," Serhiy Dobriak, head of the city's military administration, told U.S. broadcaster Radio Free Europe.

To the northeast of the city, Russian troops have advanced even closer to the strategic road. On Saturday, Moscow claimed control of the village of Lozuvatske, which lies about 6 km from it. Ukraine did not comment on the claim.
Dobriak said many of Pokrovsk's residents were reluctantly deciding to evacuate. He put the current population at 60,000, including 4,000 children.
"The greatest concentration of enemy attacks was around Zhelanne and Novooleksandrivka," Ukraine's General Staff said, referring to two villages that lie to the east of Pokrovsk.

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A principal cause of the deteriorating situation for Ukraine on the frontline is a severe shortage of combat troops. When we were in Ukraine last month, we observed that the average age of infantrymen in certain units had increased from 40 to 45 years.
With a thinly manned frontline, any mistake, friction during rotation, or enemy action is massively amplified.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

U.S. to Arm Ukraine’s F-16 Jets With Advanced Weapons

The U.S. has agreed to arm dozens of F-16 jet fighters being sent to Ukraine with American-made missiles and other advanced weapons, addressing a longstanding question about the Western aircraft.

Denmark and the Netherlands are preparing to send the first American-made F-16s to Ukraine this summer, and more will come later from Belgium and Norway. But until now the source of critical weapons for the planes has been unresolved.

Though the Pentagon has limited inventory and production capability, it will supply the F-16s with air-to-ground munitions, precision-guidance kits for bombs and advanced air-to-air missiles in sufficient quantities to meet Ukraine’s most urgent needs, a senior U.S. official said.

“We are confident that we will be able to supply all of those [weapons], at least the critical volumes that they need,” the U.S. official said.

The weapons for the F-16 that the U.S. is sending include AGM-88 HARM air-to-ground missiles; the extended-range versions of Joint Direct Attack Munition kits, which convert unguided bombs to smart weapons; and so-called small diameter bombs that explode with a tight blast radius. In addition, the U.S. will send advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles, known as AMRAAM, and AIM-9X short-range air-to-air missiles for the jets.

“The aircraft itself is worthless without the weapons,” said Maj. Gen. Rolf Folland, chief of the Royal Norwegian Air Force.

In Europe, many countries were reluctant to send large amounts of their limited inventory of air-launched munitions to Kyiv, so the allies came up with a solution that the Pentagon has dubbed “jumpstart.” European countries can pool their finances to buy air-launched weapons from the U.S. to send to Ukraine, the U.S. official said.

Training for F-16s has been a convoluted process conducted across several countries. Some Ukrainian pilots started their English-language training in the U.K. and France, two countries that have never flown the F-16. The flight training is taking place in two locations in the U.S. and Denmark, but the Danish facility is shutting down this fall to transition to training on the advanced F-35 combat jets that will replace the country’s F-16s.

Ukrainian officials have pressed for more aircraft as soon as possible and for the U.S. to expand the training pipeline. But the number of Ukrainian pilots available to begin the training has been a significant limiting factor to how many aircraft can be sent, U.S. and Western officials said.

Still, the U.S. is looking into whether it can expand the training in America, either at the existing Arizona facility or potentially by allowing Ukrainian pilots to use another U.S. air base.

Once the pilot-training pipeline and maintenance workflow is figured out, there is still a significant risk in flying the aircraft into combat, especially because Ukrainian pilots are used to flying Soviet jets.

A Danish F-16 pilot would typically take more than four years to fully train. Ukrainian pilots have spent around one year, according to a person familiar with the matter.

And unlike American F-16 pilots, who normally spend at least a year with their unit before deploying, “these guys are going to go directly into combat,” the U.S. official said of the Ukrainians.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine receives first F-16 fighter jets to bolster defenses against Russia, officials tell AP

According to U.S. and Ukrainian officials, Ukraine has received the first F-16 fighter jets that it has sought for months to fight back against an onslaught of Russian missile strikes.

apnews.com

Ukraine has received the first F-16 fighter jets that it has sought for months to fight back against an onslaught of Russian missile strikes, a U.S. official confirmed to The Associated Press.

A Ukrainian lawmaker also confirmed Ukraine had received a small number of F-16 fighter jets. The two officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not permitted to speak on the subject publicly.

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Present perfect tense i suppose is correct. My info is that it is not even the first month that f16s have been flying in Ukraine

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Russian volunteers continue to supply Russian forces with DJI Mavic drones and Starlink terminals.

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This video on the other hand looks like a more solid indication that F-16s are now flying in Ukraine. Provided that it was filmed (as it appears to have been) inside the country. It’s definitely an F-16 in the footage.

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Is this the first case of a drone successfully downing manned aircraft? Russian military channels say that a Ukrainian drone today shot down a Russian Mil Mi-8 helicopter as it was taking off in Donetsk region, at a considerable distance from the frontline.

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Russian military-affiliated channels are indicating that the Ukrainians managed to hit a Russian Mil Mi-8 helicopter with an FPV drone.

Voevoda Broadcasts says the Rosgvardia's Mil Mi-8 was struck shortly after take-off and adds "the distance from the frontline is very significant".

Helicopterpilot adds that the strike occurred near Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.

Now let's wait for the video if the reports are true.

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The first photo of the wreckage of a Russian Mil Mi-8 helicopter that was said to be downed with an FPV drone by the Ukrainians in Donetsk Oblast on Wednesday.

 

[Chadstroma]

U.S. to Arm Ukraine’s F-16 Jets With Advanced Weapons

The U.S. has agreed to arm dozens of F-16 jet fighters being sent to Ukraine with American-made missiles and other advanced weapons, addressing a longstanding question about the Western aircraft.

Denmark and the Netherlands are preparing to send the first American-made F-16s to Ukraine this summer, and more will come later from Belgium and Norway. But until now the source of critical weapons for the planes has been unresolved.

Though the Pentagon has limited inventory and production capability, it will supply the F-16s with air-to-ground munitions, precision-guidance kits for bombs and advanced air-to-air missiles in sufficient quantities to meet Ukraine’s most urgent needs, a senior U.S. official said.

“We are confident that we will be able to supply all of those [weapons], at least the critical volumes that they need,” the U.S. official said.

The weapons for the F-16 that the U.S. is sending include AGM-88 HARM air-to-ground missiles; the extended-range versions of Joint Direct Attack Munition kits, which convert unguided bombs to smart weapons; and so-called small diameter bombs that explode with a tight blast radius. In addition, the U.S. will send advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles, known as AMRAAM, and AIM-9X short-range air-to-air missiles for the jets.

“The aircraft itself is worthless without the weapons,” said Maj. Gen. Rolf Folland, chief of the Royal Norwegian Air Force.

In Europe, many countries were reluctant to send large amounts of their limited inventory of air-launched munitions to Kyiv, so the allies came up with a solution that the Pentagon has dubbed “jumpstart.” European countries can pool their finances to buy air-launched weapons from the U.S. to send to Ukraine, the U.S. official said.

Training for F-16s has been a convoluted process conducted across several countries. Some Ukrainian pilots started their English-language training in the U.K. and France, two countries that have never flown the F-16. The flight training is taking place in two locations in the U.S. and Denmark, but the Danish facility is shutting down this fall to transition to training on the advanced F-35 combat jets that will replace the country’s F-16s.

Ukrainian officials have pressed for more aircraft as soon as possible and for the U.S. to expand the training pipeline. But the number of Ukrainian pilots available to begin the training has been a significant limiting factor to how many aircraft can be sent, U.S. and Western officials said.

Still, the U.S. is looking into whether it can expand the training in America, either at the existing Arizona facility or potentially by allowing Ukrainian pilots to use another U.S. air base.

Once the pilot-training pipeline and maintenance workflow is figured out, there is still a significant risk in flying the aircraft into combat, especially because Ukrainian pilots are used to flying Soviet jets.

A Danish F-16 pilot would typically take more than four years to fully train. Ukrainian pilots have spent around one year, according to a person familiar with the matter.

And unlike American F-16 pilots, who normally spend at least a year with their unit before deploying, “these guys are going to go directly into combat,” the U.S. official said of the Ukrainians.

Those HARMs are going to be huge. Mark my words.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

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Good chat between ⁦@DAlperovitch & ⁦@Justin_Br0nk on Ukrainian F-16s. Focus on air def. role. Justin points out Ukr faces a deconfliction problem w/ low flying F-16s & that jets involved in Apr 13 Isr defence had AESA radars that Ukr won’t.
Justin says Russian Orlan drones are flying “apparent unchecked at medium level over significant distance inside Ukraine”. Orlans can be detected & tracked, Ukr’a acoustic sensors “really innovative”. Problem is interceptors: too high for MANPADS, uneconomical for IRIS-T etc.
Justin says a small no. of Gripens - if armed with Meteor air to air missile - would pose “serious risk” to Ru glide bomb sorties without having to get as close to front lines as F-16/AMRAAM would require. Ability to launch from further also allows simpler tactics, less training.

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Russian forces continue their advance towards Pokrovsk. The map shows Russian forces are less than 17km from the city. Deep State says the situation is critical and continues to deteriorate. They says Russia has significantly increased its use of UMPK glide bombs in the direction over the past few days, and is using motorcycles to scout Ukrainian lines.

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Close footage of Ukrainian army M270 MLRS and M142 HIMARS launching US-supplied MGM-140 ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles at a S-400 battery in Crimea last night.

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Ukrainian outlet Ekonomichna Pravda reports that several Ukrainian companies are developing FPV drones designed to intercept Russian reconnaissance UAVs. One developer said it's currently trying to address issues related to both target detection and interception and predicted such interceptions will soon become more frequent.

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Interesting from a serviceman from Ukraine's Separate Special Electronic Support Center: counter-UAS electronic warfare systems that can jam multiple frequency bands to counter the use of non-standard frequencies are expansive, bulky, and have a larger electromagnetic footprint, making them a target. Still, the source says, the fight between FPV drones and EW is contested and ongoing.

'Signs of escalation' on battlefield in Kharkiv sector, Ukraine's military says

Ukraine's military said on Aug. 1 that several observations on the battlefield suggest Russia could be escalating military operations in Kharkiv Oblast.

"The situation in the operational area of the Kharkiv Group of Forces remains difficult, tense and has signs of escalating," group spokesperson Vitalii Sarantsev said on national TV, in comments reported by Ukrinform.

Russia launched the offensive in the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast back in May. The push eventually ran out of steam as Ukrainian forces halted Moscow's advance.

Sarantsev said Russian forces observed in Kharkiv Oblast were conducting internal rotations and had increased their presence in border areas.

Pokrovsk sector scene of 'most severe battles,' Zelensky says

The Pokrovsk sector in eastern Ukraine is the scene of the "most severe battles," President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Aug. 2.

Ukraine estimates 700,000 people will leave country in 2024-2025

Ukraine expects 400,000 more people will leave the country in 2024 and 300,000 in 2025, according to the National Bank of Ukraine's (NBU) inflation report published on Aug. 1.

The NBU estimates the number of new emigrants from Ukraine will increase compared to its previous predictions in the April report.

Over 6 million Ukrainians remain abroad after they fled the country as a result of Russia's full-scale war, deepening the country's economic and demographic challenges.

According to the NBU's report, the main reason behind the predicted emigration surge is the difficult energy situation and associated insecurities about the upcoming winter, as well as the slow stabilization of economic processes due to safety risks.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russian troops inch forward in Ukraine's east with waves of bombs and infantry

Russian assaults are raising pressure on the strategic eastern logistics hub of Pokrovsk, Ukraine said on Friday, as waves of guided bombs and infantry lead to some of Moscow's largest territorial gains since the spring.
The push is fuelling a surge in civilians fleeing, with requests for evacuation in the area increasing about tenfold over the past two weeks, according to a volunteer helping people leave.
Russian forces have been steadily inching forward on several fronts in the eastern Donetsk region, staging particularly fierce attacks near Pokrovsk with Kyiv's troops stretched thin 29 months since Russia's full-scale invasion.
Russia's gains of around 57 square km (22 square miles) in the space of a week are the third largest recorded since April after they made only modest gains in June, Pasi Paroinen, an analyst with the Black Bird Group, told Reuters.
Russian forces are using warplanes and artillery fire to support waves of infantry assaults in the area near Pokrovsk, Ruslan Muzychuk, a spokesperson for Ukraine's National Guard said in televised remarks.
"These assaults are not always supported by armoured vehicles, often it is infantry assaults," he said, flagging the bombing by Russian warplanes as a particular problem.
"It's a significant threat ... because the Pokrovsk and Toretsk fronts are taking a large share of the daily aviation strikes carried out on the positions of Ukrainian defenders."
Russia's Ministry of Defence said its forces had captured five settlements in the Donetsk region in the past week.
Russia's use of warplanes to fire guided bombs was crucial for Moscow's battlefield tactics, said Valeriy Romanenko, a Kyiv-based aviation expert, who compared it to a "conveyor belt".
"The Russians are not piercing our defence, they are pushing it back. They are advancing 100, 150, 200 metres every day using this tactic: dropping guided bombs, then a 'meat assault', (and if those are) repelled, dropping guided bombs again, a 'meat assault' again."
He said the supply of U.S. F-16 fighters to Ukraine could disrupt that dynamic if the jets were able to threaten Russian warplanes, but that such operations were unlikely for now given the risk it would present for the new pilots operating expensive jets.
Paroinen said the Russian offensives around the settlements of Toretsk and Niu York as well as the one to the east of Pokrovsk around the villages of Ocheretyne and Prohres had created a "double crisis" for Ukraine towards the end of June.
That, he said, followed the Russian offensive into the northeastern Kharkiv region, which was halted by Ukraine, but opened a new front and spread the defenders extremely thin.

Roman Buhayov, an evacuation driver from humanitarian organization East SOS, told Reuters that the number of requests for evacuation in the area had increased about tenfold over the past two weeks.
On Friday, he drove a bus evacuating residents from Novohrodivka, a town with a pre-war population of some 14,000 near Pokrovsk. It now lies around 10 km from the front line, which inches closer each day.
Antonina Kalashnikova, 62, and her disabled son Denys, 34, evacuated their pummelled home by taking Buhayov's bus to Pokrovsk where she spoke to Reuters.
Together with their neighbour, they arrived to the town with all of their possessions reduced to a few market bags before continuing their journey to the southern city of Mykolaiv.
"They started bombing heavily and it became extremely frightening. We didn't sleep all night, and we decided to leave," Kalashnikova said. "They are destroying everything."

F-16s have arrived to help Ukraine fight Russia. Here’s what to know about their possible impact

The F-16s will likely have three core missions, says Federico Borsari of the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington.

They will seek to intercept Russian missiles and drones that have relentlessly bombarded Ukraine; suppress enemy air defense systems; and strike Russian troop positions and ammunition depots with air-to-ground missiles.

“They will be able to affect some of the dynamics (of the war),” Borsari says.

A lot of information about the F-16 deployment is classified, including what Western governments allow them to hit and what weapons they will send with the aircraft.

The F-16s could carry United Kingdom-supplied Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missiles with a range of more than 250 kilometers (155 miles), potentially striking targets inside Russia. They might also get long-range air-to-air missiles that would threaten Russian bombers and fighter jets. The plane’s advanced radars will allow Ukrainian pilots to pinpoint targets further away than they can in their MiG-29s, Su-27s and Su-24s.
Commanding the skies is an essential part of a war’s ground campaign, as planes offer air cover to troops. But supporting Ukrainian troop movements on the front line with ground attacks may be too risky for the F-16s, given Russia’s sophisticated air defense systems.

At the very least, the fighter jets could have a psychological effect on Russian pilots, and offer a morale boost for Ukrainians toiling against the Kremlin’s forces.

Marina Miron of the Defense Studies Department at King’s College London ticks off a long list of challenges the F-16s will bring for Ukraine.

The roughly nine-month training in the U.S. and Europe for Ukrainian pilots amounted to a crash course compared with the usual three-year course for Western pilots in what Miron calls “a very complex piece of machinery.” That will mean limitations on their performance.
The F-16s also require a large number of support personnel, such as skilled maintenance engineers, munitions loaders, intelligence analysts and emergency crews.

Ukraine must also establish a network of radar stations, reinforced hangars, a supply of spare parts and refueling systems. Quality airfields are also a must as the F-16 air intake is close to the tarmac and runs the danger of sucking debris and dirt into the engine.

Although Russian forces will try to strike the F-16s at the airbases where they are kept, Ukraine has robust defenses to protect the fighter jets against such attacks, says Ukrainian aviation expert Anatolii Khrapchynskyi.

Ukraine has robust capabilities “to protect its airfields with anti-aircraft defenses to deflect (Russian) attacks,” Khrapchynskyi told The Associated Press. “During the entire time since Russia has invaded Ukraine, it has been actively trying to hit Ukrainian airfields, but they have been somewhat unsuccessful.”

Khrapchynskyi said the F-16s will significantly increase the capabilities of the Ukrainian Air Force to protect the country’s air space from Russian attacks and increase the range that Ukraine can strike strategic targets in Russia.

“With the acquisition of F-16 aircraft, we will be able to solve a number of problems that are currently hurting Ukraine. These include: Russia’s massive missile attacks, its use of guided aerial bombs, and the deployment of S-300 installations in the border regions of Sumy and Kharkiv,” says Khrapchynskyi. “We are talking about receiving F-16 aircraft, in my opinion, this will significantly help Ukraine to cope with the Russian aggression that is taking place now.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Frontline report: Ukrainian Forces employ drone tactics to slow Russian advance near Pokrovsk

As Ukrainians cannot contend with the Russian manpower advantage straight on, Ukrainian forces in the region have adopted several tactics to slow the Russian process significantly.

Firstly Ukrainians conduct regular counterattacks and raids on Russian positions with armored vehicles and deploy assault groups where Russians are vulnerable. Geolocated footage shows one Ukrainian Bradley driving up and firing on a Russian position to undermine the Russian advance toward the river.

Another video shows Bradley infantry fighting vehicles firing into a Russian tree line to undermine Russian attacks on one of the settlements. The footage also shows how, after the bread list laid into the Russian trenches with automatic cannons, two Ukrainian assault groups deployed to clear the trenches further and cut off the Russian advancement.

Secondly, Ukrainians mine the approaches to their positions with anti-infantry and anti-tank mines, as shown by this Russian mechanized attack being cut short when the lead vehicle drives over a mine and detonates.

Thirdly Ukrainians target Russian forces with FPV drones and heavy-duty vampire drones not only along the contact line but over the entire Russian salient. Ukrainian vampire hexacopter drones destroy buildings Russians are sheltering in with heavy explosives or by carpet bombing them with individual mortar rounds. Ukrainian FPV drones fly around and target Russian infantry and shelters, as well as supply trucks and vehicles deeper into the salient, heavily disrupting the Russian ability to launch attacks and sustain prolonged assault operations.

Russia, adapting tactics, advances in Donetsk and takes more Ukrainian land

The reinvasion of the Kharkiv region, while yielding limited gains, nonetheless diverted Ukrainian resources. Oleksandr, 30, a battalion commander of the 47th brigade, fighting near Ocheretyne, said that Ukrainian forces are struggling and that Putin’s prize increasingly seems within Russia’s reach.
“This strategy is clever: You try to concentrate the strength of your enemy in one direction and then distract them at another,” said Oleksandr, whose call sign is “Genius” and who is being identified only by first name in keeping with Ukrainian military protocol.
“Their first objective is to destroy us,” he said. “The second is to push us so that they can get more leverage for peace talks and get more from us. They are almost at the point of capturing the Donetsk region.”

Putin’s troops are now pressing along an arc of three key points: Chasiv Yar, just west of the city of Bakhmut, which Russia captured in spring 2023; the small industrial city of Toretsk; and in rural terrain west of Ocheretyne, a village on strategic high ground seized in May after Russian forces advanced northwest from Avdiivka, which they occupied in February.

While there is intense fighting elsewhere, including in Kupyansk in the northeast and in some spots along the southern front, the offensive in Donetsk represents a notable shift in tactics by Russian commanders who appear to have learned from past mistakes and are now achieving steady gains for the Kremlin, also threatening the Ukrainian city of Kostiantynivka, which sits on a strategic highway.

Ukrainian commanders and soldiers interviewed by The Washington Post cited exhaustion and dwindling resources, including a severe lack of troops. A new mobilization law adopted by Ukraine’s parliament has yet to provide desperately needed reinforcements, as new conscripts are still undergoing training, and some draft-eligible men have fled the country or are hiding at home to avoid conscription.
One sergeant, 56, who goes by the call sign “Bart,” described the situation as “critical” and said there was “serious chaos” on the front lines. He blamed failures in leadership decisions, including cases of Ukrainian and Russian forces mixing up their positions.
Mikhail, 46, the commander of a mortar battery fighting in Krasnogorivka, who goes by the call sign “Brain,” said that reconnaissance had shown that Russia recently “raised the bar” around Ocheretyne and committed significant resources, including more troops and tanks.
Last week, Russian forces managed to advance four miles west from Ocheretyne, forcing the retreat of a Ukrainian infantry brigade holding the line in the village of Prohres.
Ukraine’s 47th Mechanized Brigade was forced into a “chaotic retreat” due to a lack of soldiers.
Some of the most intense fighting of the summer is now underway around the industrial city of Toretsk, where Russia has made significant tactical gains.
Commanders and military analysts said the purpose of that fighting, and Russian assaults on the nearby city of Niu-York, was to put pressure on Ukraine’s fatigued infantry units, with the aim of breaking through to Kostiantynivka.
Ukrainian soldiers said the Russian forces near Toretsk appeared to be using the same strategy used to capture Avdiivka in February after months of heavy fighting. There, the Russians enveloped the Ukrainians from three sides, while simultaneously exhausting them by relentlessly dropping glide bombs from above.
Now, in addition to incessant bombing and drone attacks, extreme heat is depleting soldiers living in trenches in Ukraine’s forests and wide-open fields. And clear blue skies mean that soldiers are even more exposed to reconnaissance and attack drones.
Some Russian forces are also moving west and north through the town of Kurakhove. If they capture Toretsk, Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, the entire Donetsk region would be in peril.
Several Ukrainian commanders cited an acceleration in drone warfare as one of the principal challenges on the battlefield, with Russia having significantly increased its electronic jamming capabilities to erase Ukraine’s previous advantage using first-person view, or FPV, drones.
“What has changed tremendously is their drone tactics and their use of electronic warfare. We used to have the upper hand and were more efficient, but now this is not the case,” Mikhail said.

Serhii, 29, the commander of a drone unit working in Niu-York, who goes by the call sign “Shelby,” said that Ukraine is also re-engineering drones to carry out demining and new kinds of assaults. For example, he said, engineers had attached antitank mines to heavy-duty Kazhan drones.
Many vehicles in Donbas are now fitted with antennas, indicating they carry drone-jamming equipment. Soldiers also use small black boxes known as “sugars,” radars that identify and warn of circling drones. Sugars didn’t exist in Ukraine a year ago but are now common.
Ukrainian soldiers also noted an increase in the use of aviation bombs, especially Soviet-era glide bombs, around Chasiv Yar and Niu-York, which they said was causing significant damage and affecting morale. Some weigh 6,600 pounds and can destroy infantry positions and buildings with catastrophic effect.
Eugene, 41, a drone pilot working in Niu-York, said that while Russian commanders were still relying on “meat assault” tactics — sending waves of often underprepared, recent conscripts at a target — they also are applying new “scorched earth” tactics to obliterate entire towns.
“The Russians are hitting Niu-York with aviation bombs and artillery to completely obliterate entire quadrants of the city so that they can move troops in,” said Serhii, the drone commander.
Pasha, 34, a drone commander fighting with the 105th brigade, described the situation in Niu-York as “really hard.”
“They are using Niu-York to encircle Toretsk — and I think they have a real chance now of encircling it, it’s just a question of resources and timing,” Pasha said. The glide bombs are so powerful, they can incapacitate entire infantry units with concussions, he said.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

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Made some rudimentary calculations on how the Russian 2024 summer offensive compares to the Ukrainian 2023 summer offensive in terms of territorial change of Russian controlled area on our map. 1/
It’s quite clear that the Russian pace of advance this spring and summer has been grindingly steady with few notable intensifications thrown in the mix. As for the Ukrainian summer offensive, its clear that almost all meaningful progress in terms of territory captured 2/
was made within the first two months of the offensive with the initiative slowly turning over to the Russians in September of 2023. Russian controlled area shrunk by total of ~321,5 square kilometers between June 1st and September 1st 2023: average of 24,73 km2 per 7 days. 3/
In comparison between May 3rd and August 2nd 2024 the Russians have captured ~591,70 square kilometers: average of 45,51 km2 per 7 days. Gains from Kharkiv offensive amount to roughly ~186,2 km2. 4/
After a several slow weeks in June, the Russian offensive is once again picking up speed. This time most of this progress is concentrated in few sections of the front in Donetsk region: notably the Ocheretyne-Prohres salient, and the Toretsk-Niu York sector. 5/
Lastly few caveats to close of this short thread: Number used in these calculations were derived from the size of the “Russian-occupied area” polygon on our map. This polygon includes some rather large bodies of water, especially around Crimea. 6/
Therefore, the total “Russian-occupied area polygon” is not geographically accurate of Ukrainian surface land area occupied by Russian forces. But the net changes of that polygon are accurate in respect to the changes in frontline situation. 7/
Choosing a different periodization could also affect the data for questions like “which period has seen the most gains by Russia”. The following weeks will show, if the situation begins to stabilize or if the Russians are able to further capitalize on their recent successes. 8/8

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The weapons (older AIM-9M/L Sidewinder and AIM-120B AMRAAM missiles) seen at the official F-16 unveiling in Ukraine today suggests an initial focus on internal air defence sorties against Shahed/Geran one-way attack drones and cruise missiles.

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Ukraine’s GUR posted satellite photos of the aftermath of the strike on Russia’s Morozovsk airfield. They say a Su-34 was destroyed and two more were likely damaged. Ammunition storage facilities were also destroyed and other buildings and hangars were damaged.

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The Ukrainian analytical project @Deepstate_UA reports further Russian advances on the Pokrovsk axis today. It says Ukraine deployed reinforcements but is still struggling in the face of Russia’s manpower advantage and Russia introduced fresh assault units on Saturday. Ukrainian troops on the Vovcha River’s eastern bank are at risk of being cut off.

DeepState also reported Russian gains in the Toretsk direction. Russia advanced about 1 km in Pivnichne, while Zalizne is now entirely Russian-controlled or in the gray zone.

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Interesting interview with Ukrainian UAV operators from the 93rd Mechanized Brigade’s “Black Raven” strike-drone battalion, fighting in the Chasiv Yar area.

@wilendhornets FPV drones are said to be largely resistant to Russian vehicle-born C-UAS jammers, whereas a lower-quality drone is “immediately affected by the EW and falls.”

Retransmitters and high-quality components allow strikes on targets 20 km away. This longer range helps with counterbattery.

“Wild Hornets are unique because when they arrive, they don’t need any additional work. We simply install our firmware…”

“For two teams, we need around 250-300 drones per week.”

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Ukrainian Air Command West just released the first images of a German-supplied Skynex air defense system in Ukrainian service.

Seen below, the core component of the Skynex, a 35mm Oerlikon Revolver Cannon

Ukraine, Russia cannot destroy each other's energy grid completely, Budanov says

Ukraine and Russia will not be able to destroy each other's energy systems completely, partially due to certain safeguards from the Soviet times, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) chief Kyrylo Budanov told the TSN news program on Aug. 3.

Russia carried out a massive campaign of aerial attacks against Ukraine's energy infrastructure over the spring, similar to the one launched during the fall and winter of 2022-23.

The damage caused a serious energy deficit and necessitated rolling blackouts across the country.

"All these (energy system) nodes are very strongly protected. Just as we are trying to protect them, similar measures are being taken in Russia," Budanov said in the interview.

Ukraine's 2024 mortality rate is 3 times higher than birth rate, data shows

Ukraine's birth rate continues its downward trend in 2024, as official data shows one newborn per three deaths in the first six months of the year, the Opendatabot service said on Aug. 5.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

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Ukrainska Pravda and Yuriy Butusov both say that Russian assault/recon groups are fighting inside of Toretsk. They are pushed back but Russia has reserves and the tactical initiative and is increasing its assaults from different directions and has an advantage in glide bombs, artillery, and FPVs. Butusov says Ukraine's 32nd Mechanized Brigade is sustaining heavy losses, and says the situation is dangerous.

Long Battle for a Ruined City Takes a Desperate Turn

Burned-out cars littered the road next to craters from artillery strikes in this city, Toretsk, in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine, that is now on the front line of the war with Russia.
The hot July night smelled of violence — smoke and dust from destroyed buildings mixed with the sulfurous scent of explosives. The only signs of life were the soldiers of the 32nd Mechanized Brigade, who were trying against the odds to hold their positions in an abandoned pharmacy under withering Russian bombardment.
The brigade allowed us to accompany them recently to view the destruction of Toretsk up close and the challenges Ukrainian forces face as they battle to keep control of the city. The only restrictions were that we not provide specific locations or other operational details that could compromise security.
“The most important task for Ukrainians is to survive,” said Maj. Artem Osadchiy, 28, the commander of a drone battalion with the 32nd. “For the Russians, it is to wipe out this Ukrainian city.”
In that, the Russians are succeeding.
Recent gains by Russian forces have expanded an arc of destruction across eastern Ukraine that began at the outbreak of the full-scale war in February 2022 and has intensified in recent months.
The loss of long-held Ukrainian defensive positions outside Toretsk and inside New York, a smaller town a few miles to the south, underscored the growing strains of unrelenting Russian attacks and devastating aerial bombardments are placing on Ukrainian forces.
While Kyiv has stepped up efforts to mobilize soldiers to replace tens of thousands killed or wounded in battle, Moscow continues to exploit the lack of Ukrainian reserves and the time it takes to train new soldiers and deploy them to the front.

It is also unclear how long Russia can maintain its tempo of offensive operations given its staggering losses in troops and equipment. More than 70,000 Russian soldiers were killed or injured in May and June, according to a report by a British military intelligence agency — a figure that could not be independently verified. The agency estimated Russia continued to lose 1,000 soldiers a day in July and said the high rate of casualties would continue through August as it maintains offensive operations.
But if Russian forces manage to seize the longtime defensive bastions in the Toretsk area, they would be poised to press on toward Kostiantynivka, a logistical linchpin for Ukrainian forces in the east, from yet another direction of attack.
For months, the Russians have been bombarding Chasiv Yar, a city to the north of Kostiantynivka, with the same goal in mind, Ukrainian commanders and military analysts say. The Russians are also pressing to cut off the main highway running south from Kostiantynivka to the city of Pokrovsk, advancing several miles in that direction in recent weeks and unbalancing Ukrainian defenses.

Even if the pace of Russia’s gains suggests that it is unlikely to soon capture the remaining cities of the Donetsk region, an advance of just a few more miles would expose those cities to even more fearsome daily bombardments. Hundreds of thousands of civilians could be forced to flee, complicating the logistics of the Ukrainian defense in the east.
That makes the defense of Toretsk, like Chasiv Yar, vitally important, Ukrainian commanders and military analysts say.
The Toretsk agglomeration — a group of mining towns and villages scattered along rolling hills and punctuated by mountains made of coal mining waste — was hard hit in the opening weeks of the war, but the defense never buckled.
For the past year, the oldest brigade in the Ukrainian Army — the 24th, which was created in 1992 — has stood guard along the oldest part of the front.
“The trenches were deep, the dugouts were well organized, the control posts were good and everything was working,” Petro Liakhovych, 38, a senior sergeant in the 2nd Battalion of the 24th Mechanized Brigade, said in an interview.
“We understood the enemy and understood their movements and how to react,” he said.
But in May, the 24th was told they were being moved to Chasiv Yar, a need deemed more urgent as the Russians advanced to the doorstep of the destroyed town. They would be replaced by the 41st Mechanized Brigade, which had been defending Chasiv Yar when the Russians managed to advance into its outskirts.
Soldiers from the 24th said they were already seeing signs of an imminent attack on Toretsk and warned senior commanders against the rotation at such a critical time.
Such rotations of units can be extremely dangerous moments. It takes time for units to become familiar with their new terrain and, soldiers said, even when successfully executed, they are moments of acute vulnerability.
The rotation was carried out over several weeks and by early June, the 41st had moved from Chasiv Yar to take command of the Toretsk area. The 24th brigade was now in Chasiv Yar.
Two days after the rotation was complete, soldiers said, the Russians attacked.
Sergeant Liakhovych said, “It was a big mistake that we were taken from there.”
Almost immediately, it was clear that the 41st was unprepared to defend Toretsk since it did not know the terrain, soldiers from multiple battalions said in interviews and public statements. The commander of the brigade has also been criticized for issuing unclear orders and not reacting quickly to the changing threat environment.
Yevhen Strokan, a senior lieutenant and commander of a combat drone platoon in the 206th Territorial Defense Battalion, whose soldiers were placed under the command of the 41st brigade, said in an interview that “there were losses in the battalion due to the senseless orders of the senior commander” of the 41st brigade.

Roman Kuliak, the deputy commander of the 206th Territorial Defense Battalion, whose soldiers were placed under the command of the 41st brigade, said that both the 41st’s commander and the General Staff, which handles overall war strategy, were responsible for the fact that positions that had held for years fell in a matter of days.

Georgiy Tuka, a former minister responsible for the territories occupied by Russia and internally displaced people and a former member of the 206th, said too few Ukrainian soldiers were sent into the Toretsk area and that light infantry units were given attack orders by the 41st that exceeded their capabilities, leading to grievous losses.
The 41st no longer has command in the Toretsk area. Ukraine has dispatched some of its best brigades to try and stabilize the situation, but they are stretched thin. And the fierce fighting, soldiers said, could complicate any hope Kyiv has of seizing the initiative and going back on the offensive.