*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (4 Viewers)

[New Binky the Doormat]

Merz tells Trump ‘more pressure’ needed on Russia to end its invasion of Ukraine

Trump suggests maybe better letting Russia and Ukraine ‘fight for a while’ before intervening

I really wish the US didn't seem so aimless here.

we're doing a great job as the Kremlin's press secretary

 

[fatness]

Frontline report: Ghost helicopters drop Ukrainian hunters deep behind Russian lines under cover of darkness - Euromaidan Press

Ukrainian special forces disappear into enemy forests after helicopter raid, leaving Russian commanders wondering who's watching from the shadows.

euromaidanpress.com

Today, there are a lot of interesting updates from the Kupiansk direction. Here, along the Oskil River near Kupiansk, Ukrainian special forces just carried out one of the boldest operations of the war. In a surprise helicopter raid deep behind Russian lines, they landed undetected and tore through dugouts, safe houses, and staging zones, shattering Russian preparations before their offensive could even begin.

The Ukrainian Special Forces involved in this operation were deployed using American UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters, flying low to avoid being detected by the Russians. Penetrating deep behind Russian lines, the helicopters were able to land and dismount several dozen Ukrainian operators before returning safely to friendly territory. Once on the ground, the Ukrainian troops moved quickly and with purpose. After reaching their targets, they launched a series of highly effective and deadly raids against Russian forces. They cleared forest belts and residential areas of enemy soldiers who had been preparing to cross the river. Russian troops were caught completely off guard, never expecting an attack from their rear. Several dugouts were quickly encircled, and numerous Russian soldiers were captured in the confusion. Taking full advantage of surprise and terrain, Ukrainian operators concealed themselves in forested areas, waiting for small Russian infantry groups that were either sent to find them, or were moving to new positions completely unaware.

 

[Chadstroma]

Frontline report: Ghost helicopters drop Ukrainian hunters deep behind Russian lines under cover of darkness - Euromaidan Press

Ukrainian special forces disappear into enemy forests after helicopter raid, leaving Russian commanders wondering who's watching from the shadows.

euromaidanpress.com

Today, there are a lot of interesting updates from the Kupiansk direction. Here, along the Oskil River near Kupiansk, Ukrainian special forces just carried out one of the boldest operations of the war. In a surprise helicopter raid deep behind Russian lines, they landed undetected and tore through dugouts, safe houses, and staging zones, shattering Russian preparations before their offensive could even begin.

The Ukrainian Special Forces involved in this operation were deployed using American UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters, flying low to avoid being detected by the Russians. Penetrating deep behind Russian lines, the helicopters were able to land and dismount several dozen Ukrainian operators before returning safely to friendly territory. Once on the ground, the Ukrainian troops moved quickly and with purpose. After reaching their targets, they launched a series of highly effective and deadly raids against Russian forces. They cleared forest belts and residential areas of enemy soldiers who had been preparing to cross the river. Russian troops were caught completely off guard, never expecting an attack from their rear. Several dugouts were quickly encircled, and numerous Russian soldiers were captured in the confusion. Taking full advantage of surprise and terrain, Ukrainian operators concealed themselves in forested areas, waiting for small Russian infantry groups that were either sent to find them, or were moving to new positions completely unaware.

Badass dudes. Slava Ukraine

 

[Don't Toews Me]

The missile math just isn’t in Ukraine’s favor

Sad to say, but while the strike does complicate where Russia should base its strategic bombers and how to protect them, the military trend is still in the Kremlin’s favor, with or without harsher economic sanctions. And as Russia ramps up its production of drones and ballistic missiles, the air war is getting increasingly difficult for Ukraine.

Currently, the country is believed to have eight Patriot missile batteries, yet only half a dozen are thought to be functioning at any one time because of repairs and maintenance schedules. The Patriots are about the only weapon Ukraine has to intercept Russian ballistic missiles, but it often takes a pair of Patriot interceptors to knock out an incoming missile.

Meanwhile, according to Oleh Ivashchenko, head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, Russia plans to produce approximately 3,000 long-range missiles in 2025, including 750 Iskander ballistic missiles and more than 560 Kh-101 missiles. And though exactly how many Patriot missiles Ukraine has on hand is a closely guarded secret, most military observers suspect it’s less than 200. Even if Trump were to replenish the stock, or allow Ukraine to buy more missiles and batteries, Lockheed Martin only plans to boost missile output to 600 or so per year, and even a sympathetic administration wouldn’t want all of them transferred to Ukraine.

Exclusive: Ukraine could face 500+ Russian drones a night as Kremlin builds new launch sites

Russia will soon be able to deploy more than 500 long-range drones a night to attack Ukraine as it ramps up production and builds new launch sites for them, a source in Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) has told the Kyiv Independent.

According to the source, Russia's production rate for one type of drone — Shahed-type Gerans — is up to 70 units per day, from a reported 21 a day last year, and Moscow will soon have 12-15 new launch sites in operation.

Three of these were identified by Ukrainian media in March, the remaining have not been previously reported.

Only three are still under construction, with the others already in the process of becoming operational, the source said.

Until recently, Russian launches have depended on just five launch sites: Kursk, the port towns of Yeysk and Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Krasnodar Krai, and two sites in occupied Crimea, Cape Fiolent and Cape Chauda.

Currently, Russia’s drone swarms have topped out at 472 total units at once, a record set on the night of June 1. After the new launch sites are completed, and with drone production numbers increasing, they will be able to send over 500 in a single attack, the source said.

Russia Launches Massive Aerial Assault on Ukraine

Russia launched a huge missile and drone attack on Ukraine overnight, killing at least three people in Kyiv, igniting fires across the capital and partially shutting down its metro system days after Ukraine embarrassed the Kremlin with a surprise strike on its bomber fleet.

The overnight assault included 407 strike drones and 44 missiles, according to Ukraine’s air force. Sites across the country were hit, including the city of Ternopil in the far west of Ukraine. Kyiv bore the brunt of the attack. Some 200 drones and 30 missiles were shot down, according to Ukrainian officials.

In addition to three deaths, at least 49 people across the country were injured, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

https://x.com/olliecarroll/status/1930781026462159182

It’s been quite a while that Kyiv has been under such a coordinated attack. Drones, ballistics, cruise missiles: for the last two hours it has been explosion after explosion. Some parts of the city are in flames.

Despite Ukraine’s daring attacks, Russian forces advance on major city of Sumy

The unofficial Ukrainian group DeepState, which monitors the frontlines, reported that Russian forces had occupied another settlement in northern Sumy, putting them about 20 kilometers from Sumy city.

It said: “The situation in the north of the Sumy region continues to deteriorate due to constant pressure from the enemy and large numbers of infantry.”

“The threat of the enemy’s advance is that it will reach a distance of 20-25 kilometers, which will allow FPV drones to fly to the city of Sumy,” DeepState said.

It added that Ukrainian forces were unable to combat the Russians’ use of fiber-optic drones, which are capable of evading jamming.

“A separate issue is the lack of personnel to hold back the enemy, which is severely lacking,” DeepState said.

Capturing Sumy’s regional capital is probably beyond the Russians – the terrain is thickly forested. But through their attacks, the Russian military can prevent the Ukrainians from redeploying units to Donetsk and elsewhere on the front line.

ISW noted Monday that “Russian forces have not seized a Ukrainian city with a pre-war population greater than 100,000 since July 2022.”

Russia’s Battlefield Woes in Ukraine

Fourth, Russian fatalities and casualties have been extraordinary. Russia will likely hit the 1 million casualty mark in the summer of 2025—a stunning and grisly milestone. Overall, a high of 250,000 Russian soldiers have died in Ukraine, with over 950,000 total Russian casualties, a sign of Putin’s blatant disregard for his soldiers. To put these numbers into historical perspective, Russia has suffered roughly five times as many fatalities in Ukraine as in all Russian and Soviet wars combined between the end of World War II and the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022. In addition, Russian fatalities in Ukraine (in just over three years) are 15 times larger than the Soviet Union’s decade-long war in Afghanistan and 10 times larger than Russia’s 13 years of war in Chechnya.

Ukrainian fatality rates are also high at between 60,000 and 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed, with a total of 400,000 casualties (which include both killed and wounded).

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1930899161613832674

The latest satellite images show 3 major developments: a large Russian troop buildup in Bryansk Oblast, damage from recent drone strikes in Kyiv, and unusual military activities at Taiwan’s Wangan Airport.

All three have one thing in common - they were generated by AI. Thread:
2/ While those who regularly work with satellite imagery or OSINT can quickly tell that something is "off," the quality of AI-generated satellite images is improving fast. As the number of convincing fakes grows, I've put together a few recommendations to help avoid being misled
3/ In the case of the "Kyiv attack," it took just a single prompt on a free platform to generate the image. While it appears convincing at first glance, a closer look reveals clear geometric irregularities - distorted car shapes, and irregular windows and balconies on buildings
4/ Similarly, a closer look at the "Bryansk build-up" image shows many geometric flaws. In the central part of the image, vehicle shapes often appear distorted - turning into cubes or misshapen rectangles. It’s also hard to identify what type of vehicles you’re looking at.
5/ Another good method is to compare the claimed location with actual satellite maps. A quick check on Google Maps will show that area either doesn’t exist or is heavily distorted. In the case of the Bryansk image, the location shown doesn’t match any real place in the region
6/ Imagery generated to imitate Synthetic Aperture Radar, or SAR, can be trickier. Compared to standard optical satellite images, SAR is often more complex and inherently more "distorted", especially if you aren't used to work with it. Yet, the same rules still apply
7/ Besides the problem with the helicopter blades, the lengths of helicopters in the same "class" don’t match. You can also compare them to other objects, like the "truck." A Russian Kamaz truck is about 7 to 8 meters long, while the Ka-52 helicopter should be twice long - 16 m
8/ Now the task becomes more challenging. Take a close look at these two high-quality images — one optical, the other SAR, and try to identify at least three geometric inconsistencies or suspicious anomalies in each
9/ We’re now reaching the most pivotal part of discussion - both images are original and made by Maxar and Umbra. In other words, there are no AI-made inconsistencies or anomalies here. If you spotted any or dismissed the imagery as fake, you flagged real images as false.
10/ And that’s precisely the problem — going forward, for every real image, there may be several convincing fakes. This risks eroding trust in satellite imagery altogether, making it easier to dismiss authentic visuals as AI-generated and undermining its value as evidence.
11/ To protect yourself, the best practice is to always verify the origin of the image. Companies like Maxar, Planet Labs, BlackSky, Airbus, or Umbra typically release imagery through their official channels, social media accounts, or via trusted journalists at major news outlets
12/ Organizations like ours, Frontelligence Insight, purchase imagery from resellers and publish analyses under specific licenses or conditions. In such cases, trust depends largely on the organization's track record and transparency - credibility that often takes years to build
13/ To summarize: always refer to the chain of custody. A Telegram channel sharing the image is unlikely to be the source. A visual investigator from an outlet like NYT, BBC, FT, or The WaPo with direct press access to Maxar or Planet Labs is far more reliable

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 5, 2025

Russian forces are reportedly sustaining an average of 1,140 casualties per day and suffering disproportionately high personnel casualties for marginal, grinding territorial gains. Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) news agency ArmyInform reported on June 5 that an unnamed NATO official stated that Russian forces are sustaining an average casualty rate of 1,140 personnel per day, of whom nearly 975 are killed in action (KIA) – a much higher number of killed than the standard one-to-three KIA-to-wounded-in-action (WIA) ratio. The NATO official noted that Russian forces suffered approximately 160,000 casualties from January to April 2025 and that Russian losses remain high despite a slight decrease in May 2025 "due to a slowdown in the pace of hostilities." Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on May 13 that Russian forces suffered about 177,000 casualties since January 1, 2025 (an average daily casualty rate of 1,351). This daily casualty rate is lower than the record high average daily casualty rate of 1,523 that Russian forces reportedly suffered in November 2024, but Russian forces are still expending quantities of manpower that are disproportionate to their marginal territorial gains. Ukrainian Presidential Office Deputy Head Pavlo Palisa stated on June 4 that Russia seized only 0.4 percent of Ukraine's total territory in 2024 and just 0.2 percent thus far in 2025, which is largely consistent with ISW's assessment of Russian advances in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Palisa stated that Russia is suffering roughly 167 casualties per square kilometer of advance. ISW continues to assess that Russia's disproportionately large manpower and materiel losses for marginal territorial gains across the theater are unsustainable in the medium-term and unlikely to result in significant and rapid gains.

Russia plans to occupy Ukraine east of Dnipro, cut Black Sea access, Ukrainian official says

Russia aims to occupy all Ukrainian territory east of the Dnipro River and advance toward Odesa and Mykolaiv in a broader plan to sever Ukraine's access to the Black Sea, President Volodymyr Zelensky's Deputy Chief of Staff Pavlo Palisa said, Politico reported on June 6.

The remarks come amid continuing Russian offensives in eastern and northern Ukraine, along with escalating diplomatic efforts that have yet to yield a ceasefire.

According to Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR), Moscow hopes to seize the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by this fall and establish a buffer zone along Ukraine's northern border with Russia.

The second phase of the plan envisions more ambitious territorial gains, including an advance into southern Ukraine aimed at cutting the country off from the sea.

"Unfortunately, they are not speaking about peace. They are preparing for war," Palisa said during a press briefing at the Ukrainian Embassy in Washington.

 

[The Z Machine]

Trying to sever access to the Black Sea and occupying that territory sounds like a good way to lose a lot of important equipment. Wouldn't they have to take Odessa to cut of Black Sea access?

 

[fatness]

WATCH: Ukraine Destroys More Russian Missiles, This Time in Bryansk

After the now-famous Operation Spiderweb knocked out some 41 Russian warplanes and their cruise missiles, the AFU neutralizes more missiles in the western Russian border region.

www.kyivpost.com

The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), in collaboration with intelligence from the nation’s Security Services (SBU) launched a missile strike on a Russian missile forces unit in the cross-border region of Bryansk, in the early morning hours of Thursday, AFU sources reported. The exact extent of the damage to Russian missile stockpiles has yet to be reported. The strike comes about four days after Ukraine executed one of its most devastating attacks on Russian military hardware in the history of the more than three-year-old David-vs-Goliath conflict.

An AFU statement said only that a unit of Russia’s 26th Missile Brigade was attempting to launch a strike on a Ukrainian settlements, likely in the capital region, from the area of Klintsy in Bryansk region, the report reads. One Russian missile launcher was destroyed, and two more were most likely damaged, the report said.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://x.com/avivector/status/1931276924673728552

Satellite images of Anadyr Airbase as of June 7, 00:09 UTC

The airbase housed 2 Tu-160 (Blackjack).

After Ukrainian strikes on Russian airbases, Russia has dispersed its Tu-160 strategic bombers across multiple locations.

One of the Tu-160s from Belaya Airbase arrived at Anadyr Airbase at 23:59 UTC on June 4, according to imagery, which captured the moment of landing.

The airbase is located on the Yakutia Peninsula and is 6750 km from the border with Ukraine and 660 km from the border with the United States.

Su-35 shot down: Ukraine downs fighter jet in Russia's Kursk Oblast, Air Force says

Ukraine shot down a Russian Su-35 fighter jet in Russia's Kursk Oblast on the morning of June 7, the Air Force reported.

Although no details of the operation were disclosed, the downing brings the total number of Russian aircraft destroyed since the start of the full-scale invasion to 414, according to Ukraine's General Staff.

https://x.com/Archer83Able/status/1931289916207399208

Ukrainian forces shot down a Russian Sukhoi Su-35S fighter jet in the Kursk direction on Saturday.

Fighter-bomber claimed that the pilot was rescued.

'Kharkiv had a particularly terrible night', Ukraine's foreign minister says

Hundreds of drones and missiles "rained down" on Ukraine overnight, the country's foreign minister says.

"Kharkiv had a particularly terrible night," Andrii Sybiha writes in a post on social media.

There were also strikes throughout Ukraine, he says, including in the Donetsk, Dnipro, Ternopil and Odesa regions.

"People were injured and killed, and the energy infrastructure was also damaged," he adds.

Sybiha also urges for more pressure to be put on Moscow, and for more support for Ukraine, to "put an end to Russia's killing and destruction".

"Janes confirms the damage or destruction of 22 airframes of various types": https://x.com/CSBiggers/status/1930961081112940964

We have some very accurate counts of the damaged and destroyed aircraft from Ukraine's Operation Spiderweb using satellite imagery and Ukraine's released footage in a report at @JanesINTEL. A big thanks to the participation from US commercial GEOINT in helping make it possible. (H/T to @planet / @umbraspace)

Ukrainian attack damaged 10% of Russia's strategic bombers, Germany says

"According to our assessment, more than a dozen aircraft were damaged, TU-95 and TU-22 strategic bombers as well as A-50 surveillance planes," German Major General Christian Freuding said in a YouTube podcast reviewed by Reuters ahead of its publication later on Saturday.

The affected A-50s, which function similarly to NATO's AWACS planes by providing aerial situational awareness, were likely non-operational when they were hit, said the general who coordinates Berlin's military aid to Kyiv and is in close touch with the Ukrainian defence ministry.
"We believe that they can no longer be used for spare parts. This is a loss, as only a handful of these aircraft exist," he said. "As for the long-range bomber fleet, 10% of it has been damaged in the attack according to our assessment."

Despite the losses, Freuding does not see any immediate reduction of Russian strikes against Ukraine, noting that Moscow still retains 90% of its strategic bombers which can launch ballistic and cruise missiles in addition to dropping bombs.
"But there is, of course, an indirect effect as the remaining planes will need to fly more sorties, meaning they will be worn out faster, and, most importantly, there is a huge psychological impact."
Freuding said Russia had felt safe in its vast territory, which also explained why there was little protection for the aircraft.
"After this successful operation, this no longer holds true. Russia will need to ramp up the security measures."

https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1931100067043434637

In late May, Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service chief said Russia is currently producing ~3mn 152/122mm shells per year & getting 2.5-3mn from North Korea. He said Pyongyang has supplied 6 million shells since the war began.

Damaged Tu-95 aircraft were used by Russia to bomb Ukraine, says EDF colonel

The biggest battlefield shift, the colonel said, is Russia's steadily increasing pressure on Sumy Oblast.

"According to public sources, Russian Federation forces have gradually advanced in the border area in the direction of Sumy. The operational group in the Sumy direction primarily consists of airborne and naval infantry units deployed in Russia's Kursk Oblast, including regiments from the Pskov-based 76th Air Assault Division. So far, airborne and naval infantry units have been the main forces redeployed across the theater from one axis to another. Nevertheless, the activity on the Sumy-Kursk axis remains below that of the main offensive axis in Donetsk Oblast," he said.

"Although the main tactical effort remains focused on Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka in Donetsk Oblast, the Russian Federation's armed forces have not achieved significant success in the region over the past week. The isolation or capture of either settlement remains unlikely in the near future. Furthermore, according to assessments, Russian forces are still incapable of achieving an operational-level breakthrough on any sector of the front, and Ukrainian forces are managing to keep the pressure under control," Kiviselg said.

 

[Chadstroma]

Powerful blow to Russia as Ukraine smashes locomotive loaded with tanks and vehicles

Read more

newsukraine.rbc.ua

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine destroys 3 Russian Iskander systems in key blow to Russia, Zelenskyy says

Read more

newsukraine.rbc.ua

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine’s 2nd International Legion commander reveals how a global unit fights Russia​

https://english.nv.ua/russian-war/inside-ukraine-s-2nd-international-legion-foreign-fighters-drone-warfare-and-frontline-leadership-50519098.html

 

[Chadstroma]

Anti-aircraft systems found unattended near Ukraine border in Poland​

https://english.nv.ua/russian-war/anti-aircraft-weapons-found-unattended-near-ukraine-border-in-poland-rmf24-50519508.html

Raven Air Defense System Developed for Ukraine Officially Revealed

Having previously broken cover in frontline videos from Ukraine, the UK-developed ASRAAM-based air defense system has now been shown off to the press and

theaviationist.com

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine Has a Clear Path To Make Russia Take Bigger War Losses​

Key Points - Following the successful "Operation Spider's Web" drone strike on Russian bomber bases, Ukraine's future military strategy will likely continue to leverage four key areas of excellence.

-These include sophisticated asymmetric warfare, using cheap, innovative technology to inflict costly damage on a larger adversary.
-It also relies on the efficient and ruthless new leadership of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) under Vasyl Malyuk, who orchestrated the raid.

-Continued advancement in AI and new technology, such as the "Sea Baby" naval drone, and aggressive counterintelligence operations, including targeted assassinations and engineering defections, will also remain central to Ukraine's fight against Russia.

What Comes After Operation Spider’s Web?​

The Operation Spider’s Web drone strike marked one of the most remarkable Ukrainian successes in the war, and has been widely praised as Kyiv’s most ingenious assault yet.

The operation, 18 months in the making, involved Ukrainian forces launching deep-strike drone attacks on four Russian air bases. The drones were smuggled thousands of miles into Russia, targeting military aviation infrastructure and destroying anywhere between 20 and 41 Russian bombers, depending on whose figures you use.

Russia then retaliated in the early hours of Friday, June 6, launching a large-scale aerial assault across Ukrainian cities. At least 400 drones and dozens of missiles were fired in one of the war’s most extensive barrages to date, and while it’s unclear whether this strike marks the end of Moscow’s retaliation, it’s also uncertain if Ukraine has new covert operations underway.

While we cannot predict Ukraine’s next move, we can see how its military is changing the rules of warfare, combining new technologies with covert operations to fight a much larger enemy.

Ukraine is making great strides in four particular areas:

Asymmetric Warfare​

Asymmetric warfare refers to the use of unconventional, low-cost, and often indirect strategies to counter a much larger and more powerful adversary. Ukraine’s recent drone strikes in Russia are a good example of this; Ukraine used domestically produced drones and clever planning to deliver results that could not have been achieved using traditional battlefield methods.

Using the element of surprise and playing the long game, Ukrainian forces smuggled drones thousands of miles into Russian territory and struck high-value targets with hundreds of millions of dollars using drones that cost as little as $600 to build.

Operational Efficiency and New Leadership​

Since Vasyl Malyuk replaced Ivan Bakanov as head of the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) in 2022, the agency has become more agile, efficient, focused, and effective. Malyuk’s tenure so far has been defined by this dramatically improved efficiency, having overhauled hiring and promotion strategies within the agency.

Specifically, Malyuk stopped promoting individuals based on politics and favoritism, instead giving more responsibility to younger, results-driven agents who rose through the ranks.

Malyuk is also widely credited as the architect of Operation Spider’s Web.

He’s ruthless, too: After Russian paramilitary leader Zakhar Prilepin survived a car bombing widely attributed to the SBU, Malyuk noted that “his pelvis and legs were severely injured” and that he had “lost his genitals.”

AI and New Technology​

Ukraine now produces around 100,000 drones per month domestically. It’s an impressive feat that even Russia struggled to match until Ukrainian intelligence confirmed that China had begun providing essential hardware components to outcompete Kyiv’s efforts.

In Operation Spider’s Web, Ukraine deployed drones integrated with artificial intelligence, allowing them to complete missions even after losing communication with their operators. There’s no doubt that this technology will continue to be used as Ukraine (and Russia) becomes increasingly dependent on drone strikes.

Malyuk has also supported the development of new technologies, including overseeing the Sea Baby marine drone project. A multi-purpose unmanned surface vehicle (USV), the Sea Baby drone is capable of delivering 850 kilograms of explosives, reaches speeds of 90 km/h, and can travel as far as 1,000 kilometers.

Counterintelligence​

Malyuk has also overseen a dramatic expansion of Ukrainian counterintelligence operations designed to dismantle enemy spy networks. The SBU chief also oversaw the purging of Russian agents from his own agency.

In December 2024, Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, the head of Russia’s chemical weapons division, was assassinated in Moscow by a bomb attached to a scooter - an attack attributed to the SBU.

Additionally, in August 2023, Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) orchestrated the defection of Russian pilot Maxim Kuzminov, who flew his Mi-8 helicopter into Ukrainian territory. The operation took six months to plan and provided Kyiv with valuable intelligence.

The Ukrainians were even able to organize the safe removal of Kuzminov’s family from Russia, into Ukraine. Sadly, in early 2024, Kuzminov was found dead in Spain - likely assassinated in retribution.


It’s impossible to know what comes after Operation Spider’s Web, obviously, but it’s worth noting that this attack wasn’t Ukraine’s first asymmetric assault. Ukraine has been deploying unconventional and covert tactics for some years now, largely thanks to Malyuk. And these tactics are unlikely to change any time soon.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Exclusive: US believes Russia response to Ukraine drone attack not over yet, expects multi-pronged strike

The United States believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin's threatened retaliation against Ukraine over its drone attack last weekend has not happened yet in earnest and is likely to be a significant, multi-pronged strike, U.S. officials told Reuters.
The timing of the full Russian response was unclear, with one source saying it was expected within days. A second U.S. official said the retaliation was likely to include different kinds of air capabilities, including missiles and drones.

The officials spoke on condition of anonymity. They did not detail Russia's expected targets nor elaborate on intelligence matters. The first official said Moscow's attack would be "asymmetrical," meaning that its approach and targeting would not mirror Ukraine's strike last weekend against Russian warplanes.
Russia launched an intense missile and drone barrage at the Ukrainian capital Kyiv on Friday and Russia's Defense Ministry said the strike on military and military-related targets was in response to what it called Ukrainian "terrorist acts" against Russia. But the U.S. officials believe the complete Russian response is yet to come.
A Western diplomatic source said that while Russia's response may have started, it would likely intensify with strikes against symbolic Ukrainian targets like government buildings, in an effort to send a clear message to Kyiv.
Another, senior, Western diplomat anticipated a further devastating assault by Moscow. "It will be huge, vicious and unrelenting," the diplomat said. "But the Ukrainians are brave people."

Putin unleashes a summer offensive to break Ukraine

Many Ukrainian cities and soldiers are bracing for a final reckoning. Kostiantynivka has been on the edge of war since 2014. Now the writing is on the wall for the eastern town, which Russia has identified as the logistics hub for Ukrainian forces in the Donbas region, and a gateway to open up the last strongholds there. Up to 25 guided bombs rain down every day. The remaining 8,500 civilians mostly leave the city each day by a 3pm curfew. Russian troops are tightening the noose from the south, east, and west. Dmitry Kirdayapkin, the police chief, morbidly calls the coming assault an “arc of Russian love”. He knows the Russian drill well by now: death, demolish, repeat. He saw it in 2014 as an officer in Horlivka, a town that saw fighting in an initially deniable war; and then during the siege of Mariupol in 2022. Today his officers and paramedics in Kostiantynivka work from basements and race along drone-stalked streets in caged vans that resemble massive barbecues.

Ukrainian intelligence believe that Kostiantynivka and neighbouring Pokrovsk will be the centre of Russia’s summer campaign. There are concerns about the north-eastern province of Sumy too. Russia has massed 50,000 troops there, and is advancing slowly towards the provincial capital in a mirror of Ukraine’s own cross-border operation last year. For the first time since the war began, Russia is gaining nearly as much ground there in the north as it is in the main Donbas theatre, largely because it is making light work of fortifications unsuited to drone warfare. Border towns and villages have been evacuated, with locals reporting swarms of cheap drones that often detonate mid-air. Military sources say they still expect that once Russia establishes a so-called buffer zone it will shift focus to the Donbas and Zaporizhia fronts to the south—continuing the attritional warfare that has turned the region into a pockmarked wasteland.

The front lines have not shifted in Russia’s favour in any strategically significant way for three years. But Ukrainian sources claim that captured Russian officers tell them the summer campaign is being presented as “one last push”, to break Ukraine’s morale. Mykhailo Kmetiuk, the commander of Typhoon, an elite unmanned-systems unit operating near Pokrovsk, says the Russians continue to plan such operations only because commanders do not spare the lives of their soldiers. Eight out of any ten of the new recruits are eventually killed on the battlefield, he claims, yet there is no realistic end to the waves of Russians. Russia is consistently recruiting 10,000-15,000 more men per month than Ukraine, and doing it by offering big sign-on bonuses rather than relying on the conscription that is proving so divisive in Ukraine.

A key part of Ukraine’s resilience has been its early edge in drone warfare, but that advantage is now eroding. Eduard, an officer in the 93rd brigade, says Russia has even pulled ahead in what he calls the “front-line drone marathon”. A new Russian unit called Rubikon is causing particular trouble around the Kostiantynivka-Pokrovsk sections, chopping up Ukrainian supply lines up to 40km to the rear. First seen near Kursk in 2024, Rubikon reports directly to the Ministry of Defence and is seen as well-resourced and tightly organised.
Rubikon strikes deep by using large “mothership” drones that deploy smaller ones controlled by fibre-optic cables, along with wireless drones that operate on hard-to-intercept frequencies. Growing co-operation with China has also become obvious to those fighting it on the frontlines, especially when it comes to reconnaissance drones, the eyes of the battlefield. China is declining to sell them to Ukraine while, says President Volodymyr Zelensky, it is facilitating drone production in Russia. It is not all one-way traffic. Ukraine recently hit a tank hidden in a hangar 42km away. But the newest generation of jamming-resistant drones often fly so high they can only be neutralised by short-range surface-to-air systems—like American-made Hawks and Soviet-era Buks—and here Ukraine has acute shortages.

'No grounds for evacuation' from Sumy, official says amid Russian offensive into region

There are currently no plans for mass civilian evacuations from the city of Sumy, regional Governor Oleh Hryhorov said on June 8, as Russian advances into Sumy Oblast have continued to gain momentum.

"There are currently no grounds for evacuation from the city of Sumy. The situation along the Sumy Oblast border is tense but under control of the Defense Forces," Hryhorov said on social media, referencing concerns on social media from residents.

Russia claims to have pushed into central Ukrainian region for first time

Subunits from the Russian military’s 90th tank division reached the border of Dnipropetrovsk with the Donetsk region, large parts of which are already under Russian occupation, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense. After this, they continued into Dnipropetrovsk, the defense ministry claimed.

Russia claimed Sunday that its forces are for the first time pushing into the central Ukrainian region of Dnipropetrovsk, an area it has been trying to reach for months, in a move that could create new problems for Kyiv’s much-stretched forces.

The extent of the advance is unclear, as are Moscow’s ambitions for the assault. CNN is unable to verify the battlefield reports, and Ukraine has denied the Russian advance.

Viktor Trehubov, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Khortytsia forces, which is in command of the area Moscow alleged it broke through, told CNN that “the Russians are constantly spreading false information that they have entered the Dnipropetrovsk region from the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions, but (in neither place) is this information true.”

 

[Chadstroma]

Chances of Russian successful breakthrough low – French General Richoux

Over the years of war, Ukrainians have become experts in deep defense combat, making any potential Russian offensive unlikely to succeed. At the same time, neither side currently has the capacity to execute a major breakthrough. — Ukrinform.

www.ukrinform.net

With the required joke of the French... if anyone would know about breakthroughs and surrendering, it is the French.