Ukraine Has a Clear Path To Make Russia Take Bigger War Losses
Key Points - Following the successful "Operation Spider's Web" drone strike on Russian bomber bases, Ukraine's future military strategy will likely continue to leverage four key areas of excellence.
-These include sophisticated asymmetric warfare, using cheap, innovative technology to inflict costly damage on a larger adversary.
-It also relies on the efficient and ruthless new leadership of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) under Vasyl Malyuk, who orchestrated the raid.
-Continued advancement in AI and new technology, such as the "Sea Baby" naval drone, and aggressive counterintelligence operations, including targeted assassinations and engineering defections, will also remain central to Ukraine's fight against Russia.
What Comes After Operation Spider’s Web?
The
Operation Spider’s Web drone strike marked one of the most remarkable Ukrainian successes in the war, and has been widely praised as Kyiv’s most ingenious assault yet.
The operation, 18 months in the making, involved Ukrainian forces launching
deep-strike drone attacks on four Russian air bases. The drones were smuggled thousands of miles into Russia, targeting military aviation infrastructure and destroying anywhere between 20 and 41 Russian bombers, depending on whose figures you use.
Russia then retaliated in the early hours of Friday, June 6, launching a large-scale aerial assault across Ukrainian cities. At least 400 drones and dozens of missiles were fired in one of the war’s most extensive barrages to date, and while it’s unclear whether this strike marks the end of Moscow’s retaliation, it’s also uncertain if Ukraine has new covert operations underway.
While we cannot predict Ukraine’s next move, we can see how its military is
changing the rules of warfare, combining new technologies with covert operations to fight a much larger enemy.
Ukraine is making great strides in four particular areas:
Asymmetric Warfare
Asymmetric warfare refers to the use of unconventional, low-cost, and often indirect strategies to counter a much larger and more powerful adversary. Ukraine’s recent drone strikes in
Russia are a good example of this; Ukraine used domestically produced drones and clever planning to deliver results that could not have been achieved using traditional battlefield methods.
Using the element of surprise and playing the long game, Ukrainian forces smuggled drones thousands of miles into Russian territory and struck high-value targets with hundreds of millions of dollars using drones that cost as little as $600 to build.
Operational Efficiency and New Leadership
Since Vasyl Malyuk replaced Ivan Bakanov as head of the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) in 2022, the agency has become more agile, efficient, focused, and effective. Malyuk’s tenure so far has been defined by this dramatically improved efficiency, having overhauled hiring and promotion strategies within the agency.
Specifically, Malyuk stopped promoting individuals based on politics and favoritism, instead giving more responsibility to younger, results-driven agents who rose through the ranks.
Malyuk is also widely credited as the architect of Operation Spider’s Web.
He’s ruthless, too: After Russian paramilitary leader Zakhar Prilepin survived a car bombing widely attributed to the SBU, Malyuk noted that “his pelvis and legs were severely injured” and that he had “lost his genitals.”
AI and New Technology
Ukraine now produces around 100,000 drones per month domestically. It’s an impressive feat that even Russia struggled to match until Ukrainian intelligence confirmed that China had begun
providing essential hardware components to outcompete Kyiv’s efforts.
In Operation Spider’s Web, Ukraine deployed drones integrated with artificial intelligence, allowing them to complete missions even after losing communication with their operators. There’s no doubt that this technology will continue to be used as Ukraine (and Russia) becomes increasingly dependent on drone strikes.
Malyuk has also supported the development of new technologies, including overseeing the
Sea Baby marine drone project. A multi-purpose unmanned surface vehicle (USV), the Sea Baby drone is capable of delivering 850 kilograms of explosives, reaches speeds of 90 km/h, and can travel as far as 1,000 kilometers.
Counterintelligence
Malyuk has also overseen a dramatic expansion of Ukrainian counterintelligence operations designed to dismantle enemy spy networks. The SBU chief also oversaw the purging of Russian agents from his own agency.
In December 2024, Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, the head of Russia’s chemical weapons division, was assassinated in Moscow by a bomb attached to a scooter -
an attack attributed to the SBU.
Additionally, in August 2023, Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) orchestrated the defection of Russian pilot Maxim Kuzminov, who flew his Mi-8 helicopter into Ukrainian territory. The operation took six months to plan and provided Kyiv with valuable intelligence.
The Ukrainians were even able to organize the safe removal of Kuzminov’s family from Russia, into Ukraine. Sadly, in early 2024, Kuzminov was
found dead in Spain - likely assassinated in retribution.
It’s impossible to know what comes after Operation Spider’s Web, obviously, but it’s worth noting that this attack wasn’t Ukraine’s first asymmetric assault. Ukraine has been deploying unconventional and covert tactics for some years now, largely thanks to Malyuk. And these tactics are unlikely to change any time soon.