*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (12 Viewers)

[culdeus]

Wow, pretty incredible operation. It also makes one think about the vulnerability of the west's airfields and high value aircraft. I hope that the US doesn't store the B2s or F22s out in the open.

People are saying this is roughly the equivalent of pearl harbor. It also breaks a leg off of Russia's Nuclear Triad.

Also appears Opsec was maintained, and US didn't know of it. Which was probably a good thing.

Fantatstic news. The FPV videos coming out assuming they are real are phenomenal.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1929321516862226470

The Ukrainian Air Force says that Russia last night launched:
-472 Shahed OWA UAVs and simulator drones
-3 Iskander-M / KN-23 ballistic missiles
-4 Kh-101 and Iskander-K cruise missiles

https://x.com/Archer83Able/status/1929328511019331612

Three destroyed Russian Tupolev Tu-95MS and one Tupolev Tu-22M3 long-range bomber visible on new satellite imagery of Belaya Air Base.

https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1929322068509639059

Since 1991, Russia hasn’t built new Tu-95 or Tu-22M3 bombers. A few were finished in the early 1990s, because production began in the Soviet era. Russia’s operational fleet of Tu-160, Tu-95MS, and Tu-22M3 totals around 70 - 90 aircraft. Losing even 10 would be a serious blow.

Inside Operation Spider’s Web: Ukraine ‘destroys 40 Russian bombers’

The audacious drone raid also took place 29 years to the day that Ukraine physically handed over to Russia dozens of the same strategic bombers, along with 1,500-2,000 strategic nuclear warheads and 176 intercontinental ballistic missiles, giving up the arsenal inherited from the USSR’s collapse in exchange, under the Budapest memorandum, for a promise not to be attacked.
Nine decommissioned Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3s, nuclear-capable bombers built in the 1950s, were kept in the Poltava Museum of Long-Range and Strategic Aviation, a former airbase from which the last bombers were removed in 2006. It was those ageing bombers that Ukrainian intelligence used to train AI targeting algorithms for Operation Spider’s Web. The drones were programmed to hit the bombers’ fuel tanks as they sat on the tarmac.

 

[culdeus]

Ukrainian war journalist Yuri Butusov has summarized the details of the operation "Spiderweb" against Russian airbases:

• At the moment, according to our sources, the destruction of 41 aircrafts of strategic and military transport aviation of the Russian Armed Forces at four bases has been recorded.
• Some of the drones attacked the target with auto-homing, the results of their strikes will be determined using satellite images.
• A group of SBU agents transported 150 small attack drones and 300 ammunition to the territory of the Russian Federation. 116 drones took to the air.
• The drones were controlled via Russian telecommunications networks, using auto-homing.
• Drones attacked from a short distance during the day in the deep rear of the enemy.
• The air bases were covered by significant air defense forces - anti-aircraft missile systems, electronic warfare systems, regular patrols with small arms. But the Russians expected night strikes by heavy large strike drones, which are clearly visible in the air, and did not expect an attack by small quadcopters during the day.
• The attack on the Tu-95 strategic missile carrier base at the Olenya base was especially successful, the drones accurately hit the refueled fuel tanks and a significant number of aircraft burned to the ground. An operation of such a scale and with such a colossal economic and military effect, at such a high technological level, has no analogues in the world.
• SBU agents successfully returned to Ukraine. Ukraine did not suffer any losses.

Consequences:

• Military equipment worth billions of dollars was destroyed
• Strategic aircrafts which Russia does not produce were destroyed.
• the enemy's strike capabilities are weakened, since these aircraft were an important component of constant terrorist attacks on Ukrainian cities.
• the enemy will have to spend a lot of money to strengthen the defense of its bases and facilities.

 

[djmich]

Wow, pretty incredible operation. It also makes one think about the vulnerability of the west's airfields and high value aircraft. I hope that the US doesn't store the B2s or F22s out in the open.

People are saying this is roughly the equivalent of pearl harbor. It also breaks a leg off of Russia's Nuclear Triad.

Also appears Opsec was maintained, and US didn't know of it. Which was probably a good thing.

Fantatstic news. The FPV videos coming out assuming they are real are phenomenal.

That doesn't bode well for what the Russian response might look like.

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukrainian war journalist Yuri Butusov has summarized the details of the operation "Spiderweb" against Russian airbases:

• At the moment, according to our sources, the destruction of 41 aircrafts of strategic and military transport aviation of the Russian Armed Forces at four bases has been recorded.
• Some of the drones attacked the target with auto-homing, the results of their strikes will be determined using satellite images.
• A group of SBU agents transported 150 small attack drones and 300 ammunition to the territory of the Russian Federation. 116 drones took to the air.
• The drones were controlled via Russian telecommunications networks, using auto-homing.
• Drones attacked from a short distance during the day in the deep rear of the enemy.
• The air bases were covered by significant air defense forces - anti-aircraft missile systems, electronic warfare systems, regular patrols with small arms. But the Russians expected night strikes by heavy large strike drones, which are clearly visible in the air, and did not expect an attack by small quadcopters during the day.
• The attack on the Tu-95 strategic missile carrier base at the Olenya base was especially successful, the drones accurately hit the refueled fuel tanks and a significant number of aircraft burned to the ground. An operation of such a scale and with such a colossal economic and military effect, at such a high technological level, has no analogues in the world.
• SBU agents successfully returned to Ukraine. Ukraine did not suffer any losses.

Consequences:

• Military equipment worth billions of dollars was destroyed
• Strategic aircrafts which Russia does not produce were destroyed.
• the enemy's strike capabilities are weakened, since these aircraft were an important component of constant terrorist attacks on Ukrainian cities.
• the enemy will have to spend a lot of money to strengthen the defense of its bases and facilities.

After the Doolittle Raid, which did little damage (see what I did there?) the Japanese moved a significant amount of resources to protect the home islands including fighter aircraft which were sorely needed in the fight against us. The Russians will be forced to allocate more resources throughout their country, as distance was shown not to be an obstacle that the Ukrainians can not overcome. The big difference here is that this would have been us in the Doolittle raid also destroying a third of their bombers as well with all of the aircrew returning (which they did not).

None of the current inventory of Russian bombers are still in production so they can not be easily replaced. The PAK DA is in development but has been delayed (unsure if due to sanctions or more reasons) and in order to regain the same amount of strategic bombing capability, they will be forced to buy more when they do finally get into production.

If the $7 Billion of cost is accurate, that would represent more than 10% of the annual military budget of Russia pre-invasion.

And then the A-50, as I mentioned earlier, is huge.

Overall, a great win for Ukraine.

 

[Chadstroma]

Wow, pretty incredible operation. It also makes one think about the vulnerability of the west's airfields and high value aircraft. I hope that the US doesn't store the B2s or F22s out in the open.

People are saying this is roughly the equivalent of pearl harbor. It also breaks a leg off of Russia's Nuclear Triad.

Also appears Opsec was maintained, and US didn't know of it. Which was probably a good thing.

Fantatstic news. The FPV videos coming out assuming they are real are phenomenal.

That doesn't bode well for what the Russian response might look like.

I don't think there is much more Russia can do. It isn't like Russia has held back any of it's conventional forces or held back from targeting civilians/infrastructure. They could shoot Zircon's cruise missiles which would be 'new' but I am of the belief that Russia hasn't used them due to production issues as they only "testing" it once against them. Beyond that, I really don't know what they could do 'more'.

 

[djmich]

Wow, pretty incredible operation. It also makes one think about the vulnerability of the west's airfields and high value aircraft. I hope that the US doesn't store the B2s or F22s out in the open.

People are saying this is roughly the equivalent of pearl harbor. It also breaks a leg off of Russia's Nuclear Triad.

Also appears Opsec was maintained, and US didn't know of it. Which was probably a good thing.

Fantatstic news. The FPV videos coming out assuming they are real are phenomenal.

That doesn't bode well for what the Russian response might look like.

I don't think there is much more Russia can do. It isn't like Russia has held back any of it's conventional forces or held back from targeting civilians/infrastructure. They could shoot Zircon's cruise missiles which would be 'new' but I am of the belief that Russia hasn't used them due to production issues as they only "testing" it once against them. Beyond that, I really don't know what they could do 'more'.

They still have nukes, no? This was relative to the "this was Russia's pearl harbor" quote.

Certainly as of today a big win for Ukraine, hopefully this helps brings Russia to the table.

 

[culdeus]

Wow, pretty incredible operation. It also makes one think about the vulnerability of the west's airfields and high value aircraft. I hope that the US doesn't store the B2s or F22s out in the open.

People are saying this is roughly the equivalent of pearl harbor. It also breaks a leg off of Russia's Nuclear Triad.

Also appears Opsec was maintained, and US didn't know of it. Which was probably a good thing.

Fantatstic news. The FPV videos coming out assuming they are real are phenomenal.

That doesn't bode well for what the Russian response might look like.

I mean this took out a lot of what the response might be.

 

[Chadstroma]

Wow, pretty incredible operation. It also makes one think about the vulnerability of the west's airfields and high value aircraft. I hope that the US doesn't store the B2s or F22s out in the open.

People are saying this is roughly the equivalent of pearl harbor. It also breaks a leg off of Russia's Nuclear Triad.

Also appears Opsec was maintained, and US didn't know of it. Which was probably a good thing.

Fantatstic news. The FPV videos coming out assuming they are real are phenomenal.

That doesn't bode well for what the Russian response might look like.

I don't think there is much more Russia can do. It isn't like Russia has held back any of it's conventional forces or held back from targeting civilians/infrastructure. They could shoot Zircon's cruise missiles which would be 'new' but I am of the belief that Russia hasn't used them due to production issues as they only "testing" it once against them. Beyond that, I really don't know what they could do 'more'.

They still have nukes, no? This was relative to the "this was Russia's pearl harbor" quote.

Certainly as of today a big win for Ukraine, hopefully this helps brings Russia to the table.

Putin isn't suicidal over Ukraine.

 

[massraider]

An operation of such a scale and with such a colossal economic and military effect, at such a high technological level, has no analogues in the world

Dang

 

[fatness]

There is a massive amount of land owned by China that just happens to be nearby US bases all through the US. If Congress was smart.... well.... better put, if Congress could do a smart thing... it would be to force the sell of that land as a national security issue. I am much more concerned about that than Tik Tok. It is on the level of the kill switches found from Chinese equipment in our energy infrastructure.

There is no land "owned by China" near US bases. As of 2022 there were between 350,000 and 380,000 acres of land owned by Chinese investors, which is a minuscule percentage of the privately-held land in the US.

Congress has required, since 1978, all foreign entities buying land in the US to register those sales to the Department of Agriculture, which has issued a report each year.

In 1978, Congress passed the Agricultural Foreign Investment Disclosure Act. Under that law, foreign investors who "acquire, transfer, or hold an interest in U.S. agricultural land" must report their holdings and transactions to the Agriculture Department. Since 1978, the Farm Service Agency has produced a (roughly) annual report detailing these filings, which is then presented to Congress.

Much of the fear-mongering about "China" owing land near US military bases stems from a 2022 NY Post article that claimed China, not Chinese investors, owned all that land. The NY Post also included a misleading map that showed the "Chinese" land holdings as much larger than they actually are. Parcels owned by Chinese investors range in size from 1 acre to 132,050 acres. Each county that held even 1 acre of land owned by a Chinese investor is shown on the map as entirely owned by China.

Obviously the NY Post article was designed to mislead. Here's a better article:

The Facts About a Misleading Map of 'Chinese-Owned' Farmland Near US Military Bases

An article in the New York Post claimed that land near military bases owned by Chinese investors created an "alarming" national security threat.

www.yahoo.com

edited to add: This should probably be a separate topic.

 

[The Z Machine]

Wow, pretty incredible operation. It also makes one think about the vulnerability of the west's airfields and high value aircraft. I hope that the US doesn't store the B2s or F22s out in the open.

There is a massive amount of land owned by China that just happens to be nearby US bases all through the US. If Congress was smart.... well.... better put, if Congress could do a smart thing... it would be to force the sell of that land as a national security issue. I am much more concerned about that than Tik Tok. It is on the level of the kill switches found from Chinese equipment in our energy infrastructure. The US is half asleep at the wheel and we are increasingly putting ourselves not just in danger but at a disadvantage with the danger.

While I'm sure it would make it marginally easier if the land was owned by enemies, it probably doesn't matter too much. Land and space can be leased, or containers parked nearby on trucks etc. It just seems like it's really tough to prevent this sort of attack other than having hardened defenses that can withstand drone strikes.

 

[Chadstroma]

There is a massive amount of land owned by China that just happens to be nearby US bases all through the US. If Congress was smart.... well.... better put, if Congress could do a smart thing... it would be to force the sell of that land as a national security issue. I am much more concerned about that than Tik Tok. It is on the level of the kill switches found from Chinese equipment in our energy infrastructure.

There is no land "owned by China" near US bases. As of 2022 there were between 350,000 and 380,000 acres of land owned by Chinese investors, which is a minuscule percentage of the privately-held land in the US.

Congress has required, since 1978, all foreign entities buying land in the US to register those sales to the Department of Agriculture, which has issued a report each year.

In 1978, Congress passed the Agricultural Foreign Investment Disclosure Act. Under that law, foreign investors who "acquire, transfer, or hold an interest in U.S. agricultural land" must report their holdings and transactions to the Agriculture Department. Since 1978, the Farm Service Agency has produced a (roughly) annual report detailing these filings, which is then presented to Congress.

Much of the fear-mongering about "China" owing land near US military bases stems from a 2022 NY Post article that claimed China, not Chinese investors, owned all that land. The NY Post also included a misleading map that showed the "Chinese" land holdings as much larger than they actually are. Parcels owned by Chinese investors range in size from 1 acre to 132,050 acres. Each county that held even 1 acre of land owned by a Chinese investor is shown on the map as entirely owned by China.

Obviously the NY Post article was designed to mislead. Here's a better article:

The Facts About a Misleading Map of 'Chinese-Owned' Farmland Near US Military Bases

An article in the New York Post claimed that land near military bases owned by Chinese investors created an "alarming" national security threat.

www.yahoo.com

edited to add: This should probably be a separate topic.

I did not mean to say the Chinese government but even so, if you do not understand that Chinese investors are not independent of the Chinese government then you really have no idea of how China works. It isn't like a US company buying land and that company being independent of the US government. The lines are very much extremely blurred in pretty much every aspect.

And again, the fact that the amount of acreage is small but what is owned happens to be near a lot of critical US military bases should actually be a big red light blaring not something dismissive of 'they don't own a lot of land'. I think there should be a very simple law enacted by Congress. If your country does not allow US citizens/companies to own land in your country, you can not own land in ours.

If someone believes that the fact that Chinese interests own land nearby a significant number of based that our critical to our security is 'fear mongering' then that person is naive, ignorant and not paying attention. China isn't screwing around. We need to stop screwing around as well.

 

[Chadstroma]

Wow, pretty incredible operation. It also makes one think about the vulnerability of the west's airfields and high value aircraft. I hope that the US doesn't store the B2s or F22s out in the open.

There is a massive amount of land owned by China that just happens to be nearby US bases all through the US. If Congress was smart.... well.... better put, if Congress could do a smart thing... it would be to force the sell of that land as a national security issue. I am much more concerned about that than Tik Tok. It is on the level of the kill switches found from Chinese equipment in our energy infrastructure. The US is half asleep at the wheel and we are increasingly putting ourselves not just in danger but at a disadvantage with the danger.

While I'm sure it would make it marginally easier if the land was owned by enemies, it probably doesn't matter too much. Land and space can be leased, or containers parked nearby on trucks etc. It just seems like it's really tough to prevent this sort of attack other than having hardened defenses that can withstand drone strikes.

I agree, completely. As an example, Ukraine does not own any land to make this operation possible. However, we can't just shrug our shoulders and say "What are you going to do? We need to buy more cheap (in all sense of the word) crap from China. We don't want to upset the CCP." I have said it numerous times in this thread. The war in Ukraine is infinitely more important to us because of China than Russia is. Both administrations have so far screwed this up and hopefully we will get it right soon. China is the threat. It isn't fear mongering.

Pretty much every country that is near China is in a territorial dispute with China. Pretty much every country around China that is not directly under their influence (Cambodia, N Korea, Laos and Myanmar and Pakistan) are increasing their military budgets due to the threat of China. Some countries (e.g. Malaysia) are trying to walk a line of not upsetting China or the US. Some (e.g. Philippines, S Korea, Japan and Australia most prominent) are firmly on the good guys side and are greatly increasing their military budgets.

China is harassing Vietnamese and Philippine fishers on a daily basis. They are sending their Coast Guard and their "Auxiliary Militia" (forgot what they actually call it) basically it is their fishing fleet pressed into service to cause trouble. Building new islands to claim more territorial rights and essentially have unsinkable carriers.

We would be very well served to view the Ukraine/Russia conflict through the eyes of how this impacts our relations and positioning with China.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I hate to bring it up but the Russia response to all these planes being taken out, could be something we haven't seen used in their attacks on Ukraine thus far

When Russia pulled out of Afghanistan, they lost 40,000 Russians which is a lot of people
I don't know how they verify these reports but I am hearing that Russia has now lost over 1,000,000 people in this war with Ukraine, how can that be true?
Maybe that's the total number from both sides combined?
Crazyville, there must be so many widows left with children to raise by themselves and many children that have lost both parents, the human suffering ahead for those poor souls
It's gut wrenching to hear this

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Doing a little more research

-Well over 100,000 Russian soldiers have died trying to enter into Ukraine, that's the best way to put it, these seem to be soldiers ID by Ukraine on their soil.
Estimates are closer to 200,000-250,000 Russian soldiers killed overall since the start of the war

-in 2024, leaked info from inside Ukraine said they had lost 80,000 soldiers, if that number is true, likely well above 100,000 at this point.
Something like 15,000-20,000 civilians killed in Ukraine, that seems low to me.

Bottom line: Lot of senseless deaths for both sides, just sickening

 

[FarFromHome]

War is cruelty, and you cannot refine it.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

War is cruelty, and you cannot refine it.

I think this is a textbook illustration of why you should not go around invading other countries, feels like common sense when you look at the last 3 years here.

-That said, I am not always glued to the screen on what is happening in this region, I get sick looking at it for too long. But then I see these drone attacks...
$70k to launch that attack, $7 Billion in damage to the Russians from early estimates, that's some serious return on coin and other countries are paying attention.

-At first I thought they must have hit a Russian aviation museum because of the age of these planes, not the case apparently.
This has severely reduced the Russian air fleet used for larger attacks, as much as one third has been wiped out and will take time to replace.

I would think this would be good news to most Americans

 

[Acrobat7]

War is cruelty, and you cannot refine it.

I think this is a textbook illustration of why you should not go around invading other countries, feels like common sense when you look at the last 3 years here.

-That said, I am not always glued to the screen on what is happening in this region, I get sick looking at it for too long. But then I see these drone attacks...
$70k to launch that attack, $7 Billion in damage to the Russians from early estimates, that's some serious return on coin and other countries are paying attention.

-At first I thought they must have hit a Russian aviation museum because of the age of these planes, not the case apparently.
This has severely reduced the Russian air fleet used for larger attacks, as much as one third has been wiped out and will take time to replace.

I would think this would be good news to most Americans

Keep in mind how old B52s are. The same applies here. The difference is, that these have propellers and - most importantly - cannot be produced anymore.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine updates assessment of mission targeting Russian bombers

As a result of an audacious operation by the Security Service of Ukraine conducted on Russian soil, thousands of kilometers behind the frontlines, at least 13 Russian warplanes were destroyed and more were damaged.
This was reported on Telegram by the head of the Center for Countering Disinformation under the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Andriy Kovalenko, Ukrinform saw.

"At least 13 Russian warplanes were destroyed, and even more were damaged," Kovalenko noted.

As Ukrinform reported earlier, on June 1, the Security Service of Ukraine conducted a unique special operation codenamed "Spiderweb", attacking four Russian airfields hosting strategic bombers, using swarms of drones launched from trucks parked close to the attack sites by oblivious drivers.

According to a source in the agency responsible for the operation, more than 40 aircraft were hit, including such models as A-50, Tu-95, and Tu-22 M3. It is believed that the damage incurred by the Russian aerospace force is estimated at nearly $7 billion.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 1, 2025

Ukraine's drone strike operation against strategic Russian aircraft may at least temporarily constrain Russia's ability to conduct long-range drone and missile strikes into Ukraine. Ukraine's June 1 operation targeted aircraft that Russia uses to launch cruise missiles against Ukraine and airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) systems that Russia uses to identify Ukrainian air defense systems and coordinate Russian fighter jet targeting. Russia regularly deploys Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 to launch Kh-101/Kh-555 and Kh-59/69 cruise missiles against Ukraine. The downing of Russian A-50 aircraft has previously temporarily constrained Russian aviation activities over Ukraine. The June 1 Ukrainian drone operation will force Russian officials to consider redistributing Russia's air defense systems to cover a much wider range of territory and possibly deploying mobile air defense groups that can more quickly react to possible similar Ukrainian drone strikes in the future.

Russia will likely struggle to replace the aircraft that Ukrainian forces damaged and destroyed. Forbes reported in September 2023 that a single A-50 aircraft costs roughly $500 million, and the Kyiv Independent reported on June 1 that Russia has less than 10 A-50s in operation. Ukrainian military observer Yuriy Butusov stated on June 1 that Ukrainian forces destroyed some strategic aircraft that Russia does not currently produce. A Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed that Russia no longer produces chassis for the Tu-95 and Tu-22 bombers and noted that the chassis are impossible to replace. The Economist reported on June 1 that Russia likely has fewer than 90 operational Tu-22, Tu-95, and Tu-160s in total. Ukrainian sources have recently noted that Russia is increasingly using Sukhoi aircraft — and not strategic bombers — to launch cruise missiles. Russia likely turned to Sukhoi aircraft so as to not risk their strategic bombers, suggesting that Russia is concerned about its limited quantities of strategic bombers.

Operation Spiderweb: Ukrainian FPV drones strike Russia’s bombers

Separate Ukrainian news outlets are claiming that 41 Russian aircraft have been damaged or destroyed. The available information indicates that Russia may have as many as 127 aircraft in its strategic bomber fleet, including 55 Tu-95MS and 55 Tu-22M3s, as well as 17 of the Tu-160s. If 41 have been damaged, this does equate to around 30% of the total.

This will have impacted Russia’s ability to launch long-range cruise missiles against Ukraine’s cities and critical national infrastructure. Fewer planes will place more stress on the remaining undamaged fleet, most of which is decades old. It may also mean that Russia takes even more restrictive measures with its aircraft – moving them more often for instance – to protect them. At the very least, it may reduce the number of missiles that can be launched in a single strike.

There are a number of elements and observations to draw from Operation Spiderweb, but the most surprising is that three years into the war, Russia appears to have failed to take even basic measures to protect its airfields. The VKS has learnt some lessons and goes to great lengths to move its aircraft around so that they spend less time within striking distance of the frontlines. And, some of the aircraft appear to have been situated in berms, which could reduce the impact of long-range drone strikes. However, it is rare to see the aircraft within any kind of shelter or under netting, which could have mitigated the effects of Operation Spiderweb for relatively low cost. It is also not the first time that Russia’s strategic bomber fleet has been engaged whilst on the ground, and yet a determined and capable response to protect them has not emerged.

Given the replicability of Ukraine’s operation, it would certainly be advisable for western forces to ensure that they have suitable shelters and equipment to protect their own aircraft whilst not in flight. This applies to operations abroad, too. Russia’s airbase in Syria was repeatedly attacked by bomber and one-way attack drones, despite having reasonably effective air defence and electronic warfare systems on site. It stands to reason that NATO forces can expect their airfields and airbases to be attacked even in a lower intensity conflict and should make the simple preparations needed to protect their aircraft.

In Russia Airfield Attacks, Ukraine Aims for Strategic and Symbolic Blow

Mick Ryan, a retired Australian general and fellow at the Lowy Institute, a Sydney-based research group, said that “the proliferation of drones, open-source sensors and digital command and control systems means that long-range strike is now a commodity available to almost every nation state, and nonstate actor, with a few million dollars and the desire to reach out and strike their adversary.”
President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, in comments on Monday at a NATO meeting of Baltic and Nordic countries, said the operation showed Russia that it is also subject to serious losses, and “that is what will push it toward diplomacy.”

However, Mr. Ryan and other analysts cautioned that despite the nature of the attacks, they are unlikely to alter the political calculus of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who remains bent on achieving his war aims.

Ukraine hits air bases thousands of miles inside Russia in audacious military operation

A senior US defense official told CNN that Ukraine’s attack showed a level of sophistication that they had not seen before.

First satellite images of destroyed Russian aircraft at Belaya airbase appear online

The first satellite images have appeared online, allowing for a better assessment of Russian losses at the Belaya airbase in Irkutsk Oblast during a special operation by the Ukrainian Security Service.

Details: Judging by the images, four Tu-22M3 bombers and three Tu-95MS bombers were likely destroyed during the operation. In addition, one Tu-95MS was probably damaged.

Allies not informed of Ukraine’s audacious drone attack

Ukraine did not inform its allies of plans to strike dozens of nuclear bombers deep inside Russia, it has emerged.

The German government was not informed ahead of time of a Ukrainian drone attack striking targets deep within Russia, a government spokesperson said in Berlin this morning.

“The German government was not informed about this, but that is not necessary because the Ukrainians have the right to defend themselves against a war that violates international law,” the spokesperson said.

https://x.com/shashj/status/1929390247692939643

This is getting somewhat lost. The night before Ukraine's drone raid, Russia conducted what was the largest drone attack on Ukraine in the war to date—and, I guess, ever—with 472 Shahed-type attack drones. Broke last week's record by 100 drones.

 

[[icon]]

I hate to bring it up but the Russia response to all these planes being taken out, could be something we haven't seen used in their attacks on Ukraine thus far

When Russia pulled out of Afghanistan, they lost 40,000 Russians which is a lot of people
I don't know how they verify these reports but I am hearing that Russia has now lost over 1,000,000 people in this war with Ukraine, how can that be true?
Maybe that's the total number from both sides combined?
Crazyville, there must be so many widows left with children to raise by themselves and many children that have lost both parents, the human suffering ahead for those poor souls
It's gut wrenching to hear this

What you're "bringing up" has been being discussed in quite a few posts directly above your post.

"Losses" is a loose word.... 1M Casualties refers to soldiers dead or wounded badly enough to be removed from action. The actual death are likely somewhere in the neighborhood of 1/3 of that number, which is still significant but sadly nothing Russia is not used to. Russia has a very long history of cannibalizing their future demographics (often ethnic minorities) in a meat grinder.

They are a dying nation and this was basically their last generation of sufficient fighting age males to attempt to expand their borders to more defensible positions. Unfortunately for them, it's not going to work. The alternative (back down) isn't a viable option either. They're ****ed.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I hate to bring it up but the Russia response to all these planes being taken out, could be something we haven't seen used in their attacks on Ukraine thus far

When Russia pulled out of Afghanistan, they lost 40,000 Russians which is a lot of people
I don't know how they verify these reports but I am hearing that Russia has now lost over 1,000,000 people in this war with Ukraine, how can that be true?
Maybe that's the total number from both sides combined?
Crazyville, there must be so many widows left with children to raise by themselves and many children that have lost both parents, the human suffering ahead for those poor souls
It's gut wrenching to hear this

What you're "bringing up" has been being discussed in quite a few posts directly above your post.

"Losses" is a loose word.... 1M Casualties refers to soldiers dead or wounded badly enough to be removed from action. The actual death are likely somewhere in the neighborhood of 1/3 of that number, which is still significant but sadly nothing Russia is not used to. Russia has a very long history of cannibalizing their future demographics (often ethnic minorities) in a meat grinder.

They are a dying nation and this was basically their last generation of sufficient fighting age males to attempt to expand their borders to more defensible positions. Unfortunately for them, it's not going to work. The alternative (back down) isn't a viable option either. They're ****ed.

Summarizing your words or the vibe it sends off...
-You basically think Russia is beaten and has no choice but to surrender, that's the vibe you're projecting when you say they are "****ed" using your adjective
I do not share that same view but that is all i'm going to say about it, no reason to get into a tug of war

-i'm glad others are discussing, I mostly just follow @Don't Toews Me in here, does terrific work bring ing news clips without much propaganda attached
Thanks DTM

 

[Chadstroma]

I hate to bring it up but the Russia response to all these planes being taken out, could be something we haven't seen used in their attacks on Ukraine thus far

When Russia pulled out of Afghanistan, they lost 40,000 Russians which is a lot of people
I don't know how they verify these reports but I am hearing that Russia has now lost over 1,000,000 people in this war with Ukraine, how can that be true?
Maybe that's the total number from both sides combined?
Crazyville, there must be so many widows left with children to raise by themselves and many children that have lost both parents, the human suffering ahead for those poor souls
It's gut wrenching to hear this

"Lost" is casualties which includes deaths and injuries. I believe the number for Afghanistan was much larger than 40K... something around 70-80K. The near million in Ukraine is likely accurate. It should be noted that Russia has a national psychology that almost accepts brutal conditions as part of life but on top of that, Putin has been careful, after an initial misstep on this, to target rural poor and minority groups outside of Moscow for the military grinder. Further, the drain from Afghanistan was economic for the Soviets and not any kind of social pressure.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

What caught my eye as a US citizen...
-That drone attack they pulled off, what is to stop another country that hates the United States from making a scene here in the US similar to what we saw unfold in Russia?
How can we be confident of anything after you see that footage? It feels like more sophisticated drones could do even worse damage.

And nobody needs to answer any of these silly questions, just posting what's likely running thru the minds of some folks
Feels like they are years from any kind of real cease fire

 

[Chadstroma]

What caught my eye as a US citizen...
-That drone attack they pulled off, what is to stop another country that hates the United States from making a scene here in the US similar to what we saw unfold in Russia?
How can we be confident of anything after you see that footage? It feels like more sophisticated drones could do even worse damage.

And nobody needs to answer any of these silly questions, just posting what's likely running thru the minds of some folks
Feels like they are years from any kind of real cease fire

This is unintentionally funny GB.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://x.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1929572430970028202

The big thing we are waiting on in terms of BDA/satellite imagery & OSINT visual confirmations is if Russia lost Tu-160 Blacjacks. They are prized assets in very small numbers, with a few being added now, but such a loss would be roughly equivalent to losing B-2s for the U.S. More on this/article coming soon.

https://x.com/GuyPlopsky/status/1929201306259829184

Tu-95MS Bort No. "22" Red (RF-94257), which carried the honorary name "Chelyabinsk," is one of the aircraft confirmed destroyed in today's drone attack by Ukraine on Olenya air base in Russia's Murmansk Oblast.

https://x.com/GuyPlopsky/status/1929526309169893478

Would be interesting to know how many of the destroyed & damaged Tu-95MSs were Kh-101-capable. Bort No. "22" Red does not appear to have been Kh-101-capable; pre-2022 photos such as this show it lacking the four underwing two-place pylons, though it may have been modified since.

Russia submits "usual" demands for peace in Ukraine talks

Russia presented Ukraine with a "peace memo" on Monday stating its terms for a ceasefire and peace deal, though the Russian position effectively remains unchanged, a Ukrainian official told Axios.

Andryi Yermak, President Volodymyr Zelensky's chief of staff, said Ukraine gave Russia a list of Ukrainian children it wants returned.

The head of Russia's negotiating team, Vladimir Medinsky, denied in the meeting that tens of thousands of Ukrainian children had been abducted by Russia, calling it propaganda, according to the two Ukrainian officials.
"Stop throwing around crazy numbers. We will return everyone who is in the Russian Federation. There is no kidnapping. Russian soldiers do not kidnap. They only saved them because their lives were at risk. Do not put on a show for European compassionate aunties who do not have children themselves," Medinsky said.

What to watch: The Ukrainian aide proposed a leader-level summit before the end of June. So far, Russian President Vladimir Putin has declined to sit down with Zelensky.

Medinsky said Russia's memorandum included steps toward a ceasefire, and that Russia had also proposed a limited ceasefire for two to three days in certain areas.
Ukraine is pushing for a full ceasefire, as Trump initially demanded.
State of play: The Ukrainians sent their own written proposal to the Russians over the weekend, which included proposed confidence-building measures and some red lines around Ukrainian sovereignty.

https://x.com/maxseddon/status/1929541389517214125

Ukraine says it offered Russia a peace deal based on a full ceasefire, humanitarian action, and work towards a Putin-Zelensky summit.

Russia only agreed to a few exchanges:
– all-for-all severely wounded and sick prisoners
– all prisoners 18-25
– exchange of 6000 bodies each

Ukraine has offered Russia another meeting before June 30. But it doesn't sound like there was much progress beyond the exchanges:

– Russia rejected the idea of US/EU involvement in the talks
– Russia does not seem excited about a Putin-Zelensky summit, even if Trump comes

https://x.com/maxseddon/status/1929592492900442469

Tass have published Russia's memorandum, which it refused to hand over to Ukraine until the peace talks in Istanbul today.

The demands basically amount to surrender, regime change, and putting Ukraine back in Russia's grip. They are:

1) Ukraine withdraws from four partially occupied regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia) and lets Russia have them. "International recognition" follows.
2) Ukraine pledges never to join any military alliances or coalitions (NATO etc). No foreign boots on the ground or military infrastructure either.
3) Any current or future efforts to this end are rolled back or banned.
4) No nuclear weapons for Ukraine.
5) Caps on Ukraine's military. Far-right units are disbanded.
6) "Full guarantee of rights for Russian speakers." Russian becomes an official language.
7). Ban on "glorification and promoting of Nazism and neo-Nazism." Nationalist parties and groups are disbanded.
8) All western sanctions are lifted. No sanctions can be introduced in future either.
9) "Resolution of issues" with family reunification and displaced persons.
10) Both sides agree not to demand reparations.
11) Ukraine rolls back its restrictions on the Russian Orthodox Church.
12) Full restoration of diplomatic and economic relations, "including gas transit," as well as transport and "other ties, including with third countries."

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1929571632365883717

.@Deepstate_UA assesses that Russia occupied 449 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory in May, which is the fastest monthly rate of advance since November.

https://x.com/francisjfarrell/status/1929558564697182227

DeepState has released its monthly estimations of territory lost for May, and it's not pretty: a big spike, with more territory lost last month than in any in the last year apart from October and November, when Russia surged forward in southern Donetsk Oblast. 1/
The main culprit here is the bulging salient that has been created west of Pokrovsk and now bearing down on Kostiantynivka, as well as the fields around the Vovcha River in southwestern Donetsk Oblast, and of course, what is looking like a full-fledged new front north of Sumy. 2/
This rate of gains can be seen as a product of weak spots in the overstretched Ukrainian defence, manned by badly understrength units put under massive pressure from a combination of high-intensity assaults and the presence of Russia's top drone units choking logistics. 3/
These sectors are defined by a level of disorder in the defence, which in turn creates threats on the flanks of nearby brigades which had kept things under control and held their line in order. Stabilising the front line again means reducing chaotic sectors to a minimum. 4/
If, on the other hand, the May spike is part of a new upward trend in territory lost that continues to climb, especially if faster than last summer, that brings a new dynamic to a war which lazy observers have wrongly called a stalemate for years now. 5/
Depending on where the main axes of attack are, this rate of gain, combined with the increasingly long arm of FPV drones, will see all of the Sloviansk/Kramatorsk/Druzhkivka/Kostiantynivka agglomeration come under drone range, and maybe even other cities like Kharkiv or Sumy. 6/
As impressive as yesterday's attacks were, a ceasefire only happens if Russia stops, and by far the main factor deciding that is the battlefield dynamic. Ukraine's strongest possible card at peace talks is a rock-solid defense, while a collapsing one gives all power to Russia. 7/
Discussions over peace talks everywhere often take a stable battlefield for granted, and this is a grave mistake. In a war dominated by infantry and drones, increased foreign military aid brings no guarantee of turning this around. Braver moves need to be prepared now. end.

 

[Redwes25]

Wow, pretty incredible operation. It also makes one think about the vulnerability of the west's airfields and high value aircraft. I hope that the US doesn't store the B2s or F22s out in the open.

People are saying this is roughly the equivalent of pearl harbor. It also breaks a leg off of Russia's Nuclear Triad.

Also appears Opsec was maintained, and US didn't know of it. Which was probably a good thing.

Fantatstic news. The FPV videos coming out assuming they are real are phenomenal.

That doesn't bode well for what the Russian response might look like.

What will their response be? Continue to terror bomb civilians in Ukraine? Continue a meat grinding attack with small gains at a huge cost? Honestly, Russia is powerless to do anything else unless they want to open pandora's box for a war they started.

 

[Chadstroma]

The big thing we are waiting on in terms of BDA/satellite imagery & OSINT visual confirmations is if Russia lost Tu-160 Blacjacks. They are prized assets in very small numbers, with a few being added now, but such a loss would be roughly equivalent to losing B-2s for the U.S. More on this/article coming soon.

I would say the equivalent in terms of function, capability and cost is much more closer to the B-1 (of which the BlackJack closely resembles) though by number of aircraft available, it is closer to the B-2 than B-1 as we have well over 100 B-1's and something like 20 B-2's. I believe the Blackjack numbers are somewhere around 40.

 

[timschochet]

War is cruelty, and you cannot refine it.

I’ve always had an issue with this general philosophy because, while it’s theoretically true, in actuality it justifies terrorism and genocide.

At Nuremberg and the Japanese War Crime trials, the United States established a principal that there ARE “war crimes” that are so terrible that they can’t be justified. A nuclear bomb on Hiroshima is a justifiable act of war (barely, but it is.) Bombing Dresden to smithereens is a justifiable act of war (again, barely but it is.) The genocides of the Nazis and Pol Pot, the Bataan Death March, the American slaughter of Vietnamese at My Lai, the actions of Hamas a year ago- these are NOT justifiable, they are war crimes. There IS a moral difference, not just a question of who the victors are. I also believe the actions of Putin in this war have been war crimes.

 

[culdeus]

What caught my eye as a US citizen...
-That drone attack they pulled off, what is to stop another country that hates the United States from making a scene here in the US similar to what we saw unfold in Russia?
How can we be confident of anything after you see that footage? It feels like more sophisticated drones could do even worse damage.

And nobody needs to answer any of these silly questions, just posting what's likely running thru the minds of some folks
Feels like they are years from any kind of real cease fire

It is just a matter of time until someone fpv mass bombs a football game or something like that.

This war has brought out of the box things that can't simply be unseen or known.

And no there has got to be next to no protection of our USAF bases to anything like this.

 

[Chadstroma]

What caught my eye as a US citizen...
-That drone attack they pulled off, what is to stop another country that hates the United States from making a scene here in the US similar to what we saw unfold in Russia?
How can we be confident of anything after you see that footage? It feels like more sophisticated drones could do even worse damage.

And nobody needs to answer any of these silly questions, just posting what's likely running thru the minds of some folks
Feels like they are years from any kind of real cease fire

It is just a matter of time until someone fpv mass bombs a football game or something like that.

This war has brought out of the box things that can't simply be unseen or known.

And no there has got to be next to no protection of our USAF bases to anything like this.

I don't know specifics and making mostly assumptions with just a little bit of actual things I have read but they are working on various anti-drone warfare. For our stealth aircraft... B-2's, F-35's and F-22's those are generally in hangars. Most others are not but I would assume that will be something now on the docket to change. All that had to be done to protect these Russian aircraft would be to be in a hangar with the door closed. Not even a hardened hanger, just not sitting out in the open.

 

[Redwes25]

What caught my eye as a US citizen...
-That drone attack they pulled off, what is to stop another country that hates the United States from making a scene here in the US similar to what we saw unfold in Russia?
How can we be confident of anything after you see that footage? It feels like more sophisticated drones could do even worse damage.

And nobody needs to answer any of these silly questions, just posting what's likely running thru the minds of some folks
Feels like they are years from any kind of real cease fire

It is just a matter of time until someone fpv mass bombs a football game or something like that.

This war has brought out of the box things that can't simply be unseen or known.

And no there has got to be next to no protection of our USAF bases to anything like this.

I don't know specifics and making mostly assumptions with just a little bit of actual things I have read but they are working on various anti-drone warfare. For our stealth aircraft... B-2's, F-35's and F-22's those are generally in hangars. Most others are not but I would assume that will be something now on the docket to change. All that had to be done to protect these Russian aircraft would be to be in a hangar with the door closed. Not even a hardened hanger, just not sitting out in the open.

Believe START treaty requires us and Russia to keep our nuclear bombers in the open for monitoring purposes. My guess is that gets changed rather quickly.

 

[dozer]

What caught my eye as a US citizen...
-That drone attack they pulled off, what is to stop another country that hates the United States from making a scene here in the US similar to what we saw unfold in Russia?
How can we be confident of anything after you see that footage? It feels like more sophisticated drones could do even worse damage.

And nobody needs to answer any of these silly questions, just posting what's likely running thru the minds of some folks
Feels like they are years from any kind of real cease fire

It is just a matter of time until someone fpv mass bombs a football game or something like that.

This war has brought out of the box things that can't simply be unseen or known.

And no there has got to be next to no protection of our USAF bases to anything like this.

I don't know specifics and making mostly assumptions with just a little bit of actual things I have read but they are working on various anti-drone warfare. For our stealth aircraft... B-2's, F-35's and F-22's those are generally in hangars. Most others are not but I would assume that will be something now on the docket to change. All that had to be done to protect these Russian aircraft would be to be in a hangar with the door closed. Not even a hardened hanger, just not sitting out in the open.

Believe START treaty requires us and Russia to keep our nuclear bombers in the open for monitoring purposes. My guess is that gets changed rather quickly.

Posted this the other day, but Here is where our B-2's are based out of... You can clearly see the 14 hangars where they are kept. I have checked out this image before on google maps and sometimes you can see a B-2 out of the hangar.

 

[Sand]

Doing a little more research

-Well over 100,000 Russian soldiers have died trying to enter into Ukraine, that's the best way to put it, these seem to be soldiers ID by Ukraine on their soil.
Estimates are closer to 200,000-250,000 Russian soldiers killed overall since the start of the war

-in 2024, leaked info from inside Ukraine said they had lost 80,000 soldiers, if that number is true, likely well above 100,000 at this point.
Something like 15,000-20,000 civilians killed in Ukraine, that seems low to me.

Bottom line: Lot of senseless deaths for both sides, just sickening

The Economist claims that Russia is nearing it's millionth casualty. That's Stalingrad type numbers.

Putin’s sickening statistic: 1m Russian casualties in Ukraine

His regime uses payouts to salve Russian families’ grief

www.economist.com

 

[fatness]

Russia sanctions momentum builds in Washington

Bipartisan bill would impose secondary sanctions on countries that trade with Russia.

www.semafor.com

The Senate may take up new Russia sanctions legislation this month, as Moscow’s war on Ukraine continues with no peace deal in sight. With more than 80 senators’ support, Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters on Monday that he’s balancing coordination with President Donald Trump’s White House with huge pent-up interest in the Senate in imposing new sanctions. “That would have a big impact. But obviously [we’re] working with the White House to try and ensure that what we do and when we do it works well with the negotiations that they’ve got underway,” Thune said.

Senators in both parties are increasingly frustrated with the delay, with several Republicans saying recently they do not want to wait for the White House’s greenlight at this point. The crippling secondary sanctions on Russia trading partners, they argue, could be used by Trump as negotiating leverage to force Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hand on ending the war on Ukraine. The Trump administration, Thune added, is “still hopeful they’ll be able to strike some sort of a deal. But as you might expect, there’s a high level of interest here in the Senate, on both sides of the aisle, in moving on it. And it very well could be something that we would take up in this work period.”

 

[fatness]

Putin 'is preparing for more war,’ GOP senator warns after meeting with Zelenskyy and Macron

Two U.S. senators are warning that Russian President Vladimir Putin is stalling on peace while preparing a fresh military offensive against Ukraine.

www.pbs.org

Russian President Vladimir Putin is stalling at the peace table while preparing a new military offensive in Ukraine, two senior U.S. senators warned Sunday, arguing that the next two weeks could shape the future of a war that has already smashed cities, displaced millions and redrawn Europe’s security map. Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham and Democratic Sen. Richard Blumenthal spoke to The Associated Press in Paris after meeting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and touring neighborhoods shattered by what they called the worst Russian bombardments since the full-scale invasion began. In Paris for talks with French President Emmanuel Macron — who they say is “100% aligned” with them on the war — the senators warned the window to prevent a renewed assault is closing.

A sweeping U.S. sanctions bill could be the West’s last chance to choke off the Kremlin’s war economy, they said — adding that they hope their firsthand findings will shift momentum in Washington and help bring a skeptical President Donald Trump on board. “What I learned on this trip was he’s preparing for more war,” Graham said of Putin. Blumenthal called the sanctions proposed in legislation “bone-crushing” and said it would place Russia’s economy “on a trade island.”

 

[fatness]

Second round of Ukraine-Russia talks end with PoW deal but no ceasefire

Delegations in Istanbul agree swap of at least 1,000 prisoners, and Ukraine says Russia agreed to return some abducted children

www.theguardian.com

Negotiations between Ukrainian and Russian delegations in Istanbul ended without agreement on a ceasefire on Monday, but with both sides agreeing to exchange more prisoners. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, said the two sides had agreed to exchange 1,000 prisoners of war each, with the possibility of swapping an additional 200 PoWs. He said an agreement had also been made to return the remains of killed service personnel, but added that this would take careful preparation.

Zelenskyy did not take part in the talks but was speaking during a visit to Lithuania, where he called for stronger sanctions on Russia if it did not agree to a ceasefire. He said his negotiators had given their Russian counterparts a list of nearly 400 abducted Ukrainian children that Kyiv wanted Moscow to return home, but that the Russian delegation agreed to work on returning only 10 of them. Ukrainian officials said that the focus of the prisoner exchange should be the wounded and sick as well as young soldiers between 18 and 25 years old. Russian officials confirmed that “all” sick and wounded prisoners would be swapped, and that the exchange would involve at least 1,000 PoWs.

 

[fatness]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-ukraine-talk-about-peace-are-still-far-apart-2025-06-02/?utm_source=fark&utm_medium=website&utm_content=link&ICID=ref_fark

Russia told Ukraine at peace talks on Monday that it would only agree to end the war if Kyiv gives up big new chunks of territory and accepts limits on the size of its army, according to a memorandum reported by Russian media. The terms, formally presented at negotiations in Istanbul, highlighted Moscow's refusal to compromise on its longstanding war goals despite calls by U.S. President Donald Trump to end the "bloodbath" in Ukraine.

 

[fatness]

Map of the recent drone attacks on Russia, which is kind of funny looking.

 

[Chadstroma]

Museum Bombers Reportedly Helped Ukraine Strike Russian Air Bases. Here’s How

Ukrainian forces have utilized AI technology trained on Soviet bombers to enhance drone strikes against Russian military assets.

united24media.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Kyiv’s Brazen Drone Strike on Nuclear Bombers Alarms Moscow

Western officials continued to assess the aftermath of the raid. The destruction was “substantial,” with at least seven Tu-95s and four Tu-22s damaged or destroyed, according to one senior official. The strike, broadcast widely on Russian social media, was successful in lifting moral in Ukraine, a European diplomat said.

Even a dent in a fleet of Tupolev Tu-95 strategic bombers, which the Soviet Union began deploying in the 1950s, will put strain on remaining models modified to carry cruise missiles, according to Douglas Barrie, a senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
That fleet was already the smallest component of Russia’s so-called nuclear triad — intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine launched missile and nuclear bombers, Barrie said. “It has now gotten yet smaller,” he added.

“The impact is quite sensitive and unpleasant,” said Dmitry Stefanovich, a research fellow at the Center for International Security at the Moscow-based Institute of World Economy and International Relations. While the bombers are deployed for non-nuclear missions, the attack will have a “weak effect” on nuclear forces, with ICBMs and submarines playing a bigger role, he said.
The operation won’t significantly reduce Russia’s nuclear capabilities, according to people close to the Kremlin and the Defense Ministry. London-based political analyst Vladimir Pastukhov said the attack will have little concrete military significance, with “minimal involvement” of Russia’s aviation forces in the war on Ukraine.

https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1929795063615295593

A few additional observations regarding the recent strike on Russia’s strategic aviation assets may help clarify its scale and implications.

Our team currently assesses the operational strength of the Russian strategic bomber fleet to be approximately 70 to 90 aircraft. A midpoint estimate puts the number at around 80. Based on available satellite imagery and open sources, we estimate that at least 11 bombers and one An-12 transport aircraft were destroyed, with two additional bombers likely damaged. This brings the confirmed and probable toll to between 13 and 14 aircraft. Some claims suggest over 20 bombers may have been damaged or destroyed, but we have not yet seen credible visual confirmation to support those higher estimates. There have also been unverified reports of an A-50 AWACS being hit. However, we have found no corroborating satellite evidence to substantiate these claims. If we focus strictly on destroyed aircraft, the loss of 11 bombers out of an 80-plane operational fleet represents roughly 13.75% of Russia’s operational strategic bomber force.

Notably, Ukrainian strikes appear to have deliberately avoided the more modern and nuclear-capable Tu-160 bombers, instead targeting the Tu-95 and Tu-22M3 platforms. These aircraft have been used extensively in missile attacks on Ukrainian cities. We believe this selectivity was a deliberate decision to avoid escalations by targeting key elements of Russia’s nuclear triad, while still degrading assets actively involved in conventional strikes.

While this operation is unlikely to immediately diminish the frequency of missile strikes against Ukraine, as Russia typically employs 7 to 11 bombers per salvo, it does have longer-term implications. As a result, the loss of even a portion of these asset especially ones that are difficult or almost impossible to replace reduces Russia’s capacity for long-range force projection and its overall geostrategic flexibility. In sum, this was a significant and likely highly successful operation for Ukraine. While it may not bring a quick reduction in the aerial threat to Ukrainian cities per se, it does degrade a critical segment of Russia’s force projection capabilities. At the end it might influence a potential agreement to de-escalate and restrict long-range strikes in the future

Operation Spiderweb — everything we know about Ukraine's 'audacious' attack on Russia's heavy bombers

Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council official Andrii Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation, said at least 13 Russian aircraft were destroyed in the attack, with more damaged.

What We Know About Ukraine’s Mass Drone Assault On Russian Bombers

Satellite mapping images taken by synthetic aperture radar (SAR) over the Belaya airbase appear to indicate that four Tu-95s and four Tu-22M3s were destroyed at the base. There are further indications that four Tu-95s and one An-12 were destroyed at Olenya, for a total of 13 airframes. No images have yet emerged of Dyagilevo or Ivanovo, so the total number of aircraft destroyed or damaged could be higher. When it comes to SAR imagery, especially of the commercial variety, it should be treated as an indicator and not conclusive for evaluating damage like this. Pairing what is imaged with other intelligence-related products can help bridge the certainty gap. So, we will have to wait for more information.

No imagery has yet emerged of damaged or destroyed Tu-160 Blackjack bombers, the A-50 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft, or the transport airframes.

https://x.com/CSBiggers/status/1929665558167146869

Dyagilevo from today showed some possible burn scarring but no damaged aircraft. (Imagery: @planet)

https://x.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1929633971991990456

In the coming days, we will continue to assess Russian aircraft losses using commercial satellite imagery. Today, images were available from the Dgagilevo base in Ryazan.

Due to licensing terms, I cannot share the images, but I can tell you what I see. It seems that the strike on Dyagilevo was not particularly successful. The image taken on June 2 shows no destroyed aircraft or indications of significant damage.

In the eastern part of the airbase, the ground had burned in the area shown in the picture. It was only 50 meters from a Tu-95MS. This may indicate a failed drone strike.

Depending on the drone's payload, it may have caused some limited damage to the bomber, but that is not possible to estimate more accurately from available material.

Thread with satellite imagery pictures: https://x.com/ChristopherJM/status/1929661705237549564

Satellite images made by @Maxar before Ukraine's big drone strike operation show Russian airfields in Belaya, Ivanovo, Ukrainka, Olenya & Ryazan Dyagilevo, as well as close-up views of bomber, transport and airborne warning aircraft.

Maxar writes: "At each of the five airbases, defensive measures have been observed on many of the planes, presumably in an attempt to protect the aircraft from drone attacks by placing tires and other objects on the top of the wings. Additionally, the use of decoy aircraft was also seen at the airbases including painted aircraft outlines on the tarmac and materials positioned in the shape of bomber aircraft."

A thread.

Zelenskyy: Ukraine may face gas shortage

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that Ukraine could face a gas shortage as a result of Russian large-scale attacks on Ukraineʼs gas infrastructure.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

NYT puts the number as high as 20 (destroyed/severely damaged) per Western officials and says an A-50 was among the losses: Ukraine Shows It Can Still Flip the Script on How Wars Are Waged

American and European security officials said battle damage assessments were still coming in from the attacks, which took place Sunday, but they estimated that as many as 20 Russian strategic aircraft may have been destroyed or severely damaged, dealing a serious blow to Russian’s long-range strike capabilities.
Officials said Russia’s losses included six Tu-95 and four TU-22M long-range strategic bombers, as well as A-50 warplanes, which are used to detect air defenses and guided missiles.

American officials said they expected that Russia would mount a significant retaliation against Ukraine for the strikes. U.S. intelligence has not, so far, identified what Russia is likely to strike, but officials believe Moscow could renew drone strikes on civilian targets, hit the energy grid or launch new waves of intermediate-range ballistic missiles.

A senior U.S. official said it was too soon to assess the full effect of the Ukrainian operation on Russia’s strategic bombers, in part because the Russians may be able to repair some of the targeted aircraft.
The official said that the drones did a “significant” amount of damage, but that the attack alone would not force Russia to scale back its offensive operations inside Ukraine.

Samuel Bendett, an expert on Russian drones and other weapons at the Center for Naval Analysis, said “we are slowly coming around” to threats posed against American military bases by drones.
“When it comes to large military bases that have a lot of aircraft parked on the tarmac, the lesson from the Ukrainian attack is that such a strike can potentially come at any moment,” Mr. Bendett said on Monday. “At this point, it’s unlikely that our bases feature comprehensive protection against short range threats.”
James Patton Rogers, a drone warfare expert at Cornell University, said that Western powers were particularly vulnerable at the many military bases they have in other countries, like the small, so-called lily pads in the Middle East and Africa, where a range of extremist groups and other ground conditions make it nearly impossible to issue a standard kind of protection.

‘An epic failure’: Russia reels from surprise Ukrainian attack on bomber fleet

Estimates still vary on the precise numbers hit. Ukraine claims more than 40 aircraft were damaged or destroyed; Russia admitted only to “several units of aviation equipment affected by a fire”. Other assessments from open-source researchers suggest the actual number of destroyed or damaged aircraft is more like 10 to 12.
Even this would mark a significant blow to Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, both in operational and political terms.
The aircraft damaged and destroyed by the strikes made up around 20 per cent of Russia’s operationally ready long-range aviation, several analysts told the Financial Times. These aircraft are designed to travel long distances and deliver heavy payloads deep inside target countries.
Fabian Hoffmann, a doctoral research fellow at the University of Oslo, said that while many bombers were undergoing maintenance, “these aircraft were among the most operational, making these losses particularly damaging”.

The impact on Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which President Vladimir Putin revised last year to lower the threshold for its use, is likely to be limited.
Of the nuclear triad — a structure comprising land, sea and air launchers — Russia has long relied least on the latter, due to their high vulnerability. The attack may accelerate a shift, already under way, towards greater reliance on the other carriers.
Hoffmann, from the University of Oslo, said Russian strategic bombers comprised approximately 10 per cent of the country’s strategic nuclear delivery systems. He said submarines accounted for about 30 per cent of strategic nuclear delivery systems, while land-based systems made up approximately 60 per cent.

https://x.com/GuyPlopsky/status/1929781549593252186

It's also worth adding that only Tu-95MSs equipped with the "Sprut" missile initialization & launch system were modified to employ the Kh-101. Bort No. "22" Red is an older Tu-95MS, presumably equipped with the "Osina" system, and was therefore presumably not modified.

 

[FarFromHome]

War is cruelty, and you cannot refine it.

I’ve always had an issue with this general philosophy because, while it’s theoretically true, in actuality it justifies terrorism and genocide.

At Nuremberg and the Japanese War Crime trials, the United States established a principal that there ARE “war crimes” that are so terrible that they can’t be justified. A nuclear bomb on Hiroshima is a justifiable act of war (barely, but it is.) Bombing Dresden to smithereens is a justifiable act of war (again, barely but it is.) The genocides of the Nazis and Pol Pot, the Bataan Death March, the American slaughter of Vietnamese at My Lai, the actions of Hamas a year ago- these are NOT justifiable, they are war crimes. There IS a moral difference, not just a question of who the victors are. I also believe the actions of Putin in this war have been war crimes.

While I agree the literal meaning prolly doesn't apply to todays world with villains and war crimes I always read it as John Lennon singing imagine. Ha ha

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://x.com/JimmySecUK/status/1929894575369302054

I’ve been shown unreleased footage of Sunday’s SBU drone attack. I can confirm at least two A-50 AWACS aircraft were struck by drones; the FPV drones landing directly on the radar domes before detonating.

Multiple Tu-22M3s can also be seen struck in the footage.

https://x.com/michaeldweiss/status/1929909529275175045

Just watched a video showing Ukrainian FPVs hitting two Russian A-50s. Can't share the video just yet, but this confirms scuttlebutt from SBU that they knackered two irreplaceable Soviet-era early warning and control aircraft. Russia only has six. Well, now four.

https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1929896965342413252

While I haven’t personally seen the footage, several people whom I trust have told me they’ve viewed a video showing an A-50 being struck. The video is reportedly expected to be released soon.

https://x.com/ChristopherJM/status/1929860434435232047

New: Ukraine's SBU security service behind the audacious drone attack deep inside Russia now says it has attacked the Kerch bridge in occupied Crimea in a months-long operation. It says SBU agents "mined the supports" of the bridge with 1,100kg of TNT under the water line and detonated it this morning.

Ukraine attacks Kerch bridge to Crimea after ‘months of planning’

In an operation that was several months in the planning, Ukrainian agents planted mines along the structural supports of the Kerch Bridge, the SBU — the internal security service — said.

The SBU said that the attack on the bridge took place at 4.44am on Tuesday morning, using 1,100 kg of explosives, and “severely damaged” the supports. No civilians were killed, the service added.

Footage published by the SBU showed a large explosion at the base of the bridge, sending water and smoke billowing into the air.
However, the extent of the damage caused by the blast was unclear and the 12-mile bridge appeared to be in operation as normal on Tuesday afternoon.

 

[fatness]

Ukraine claims new underwater bomb attack on Russia's Crimean Bridge

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) on Tuesday claimed to have conducted a new attack on Russia's Kerch Strait Bridge.

abcnews.go.com

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) on Tuesday claimed to have conducted a new attack on Russia's Kerch Strait Bridge -- which links occupied Crimea to Russia's Krasnodar Krai region -- two days after the service's dramatic drone strikes on Russia's strategic bomber fleet. The SBU posted a video, photograph and statement to its official Telegram channel detailing the operation, which it said "lasted several months." "SBU agents mined the supports of this illegal facility," the statement read. "And today, without any civilian casualties, at 4:44 am the first explosive device was activated." "The underwater supports of the piers were severely damaged at the bottom level -- 1,100 kg of explosives in TNT equivalent contributed to this," the SBU said. "In fact, the bridge is in a state of emergency."

 

[Chadstroma]

SBU is on a roll.

 

[The Z Machine]

Ukraine claims new underwater bomb attack on Russia's Crimean Bridge

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) on Tuesday claimed to have conducted a new attack on Russia's Kerch Strait Bridge.

abcnews.go.com

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) on Tuesday claimed to have conducted a new attack on Russia's Kerch Strait Bridge -- which links occupied Crimea to Russia's Krasnodar Krai region -- two days after the service's dramatic drone strikes on Russia's strategic bomber fleet. The SBU posted a video, photograph and statement to its official Telegram channel detailing the operation, which it said "lasted several months." "SBU agents mined the supports of this illegal facility," the statement read. "And today, without any civilian casualties, at 4:44 am the first explosive device was activated." "The underwater supports of the piers were severely damaged at the bottom level -- 1,100 kg of explosives in TNT equivalent contributed to this," the SBU said. "In fact, the bridge is in a state of emergency."

I hope it goes down, but even a blast like that might not take out a support. Now if they hit it with a fully loaded cargo ship... #keybridge

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://x.com/osc_london/status/1930181894114611543

1/ High resolution satellite imagery captured by @Planet and @AirbusDefence shows the aftermath of Ukraine’s strike on the Belaya airbase, situated over 4000 km from Ukraine.
2/ Imagery reveals significant damage to multiple strategic aircraft including Tu-22 and Tu-95 stationed at Belaya. Assessment suggests impacts on aprons and surrounding infrastructure.
3/ High-resolution @AirbusDefence imagery shot at an oblique angle taken over Olenya airbase on 3 June shows several likely Tu-95 aircraft have been totally destroyed.
4/ Imagery taken on 23 May by @Satellogic of the Olenya airbase shows that two Tu-95 were at this location. A possible transport aircraft An-12 also appears to have been destroyed and another unidentified aircraft - both visible on the 3 June @AirbusDefence image posted above.

https://x.com/KOvsianyi/status/1930152545252413931

Fresh images from Planet Labs satellites taken on 4 June, which are available to the Estonian media outlet Delfi and Radio Liberty's @cxemu project, show the aftermath of the Ukrainian drone attack on the Belaya military airfield in the Irkutsk region of Russia on 1 June.
In particular, the satellite recorded damage to at least seven strategic bombers.
Three Tu-95s and four Tu-22s. The images also show the aftermath of fires.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1930195066724798642

Clearing skies over Russia’s Belaya and Olenya airbases are allowing EO satellites to reveal the burnt out wrecks of numerous Russian bombers.

Ukraine’s weekend FPV drone raid destroyed at least 7 bombers at Belaya (3x Tu-95, 4x Tu-22) and 3 bombers at Olenya (3x Tu-95).

Inside the Ukrainian Drone Operation That Devastated Russia’s Bomber Fleet

Of the four air bases that the SBU said it targeted, satellite imagery indicates that three sustained damage, and only two show visible signs of damaged aircraft—the Belaya and Olenya air bases.

Much of the damaged equipment is irreplaceable or hard to rebuild. A Ukrainian law-enforcement official said at least one of the targets damaged was a rare A-50 plane, which provides airborne early warning of potential threats and targets as well as command and control of the battlefield. Available satellite imagery doesn’t show any damaged A-50s.

Most of the planes hit were Tupolev Tu-95 bombers, a Soviet-era aircraft still crucial to Russia’s long-range missile campaigns. While the extent of the damage to Tu-95s remains unclear, in light of the aircraft’s age and scarcity of parts, even relatively minor damage could derail Russia’s air missions for months, Lair said.

A Ukrainian law-enforcement official said the drones used were quadcopters called Osa, produced by the Ukrainian company First Contact. The craft, about the length of a man’s arm, are made in Ukraine, can carry a payload just over 7 pounds and travel at a maximum speed of just over 90 miles an hour, according to the manufacturer’s website.

Osa, Ukrainian for “wasp,” has several alternatives for how it can be controlled. One of them is the ability to connect to cellular networks, which Russia shuts down when it expects an incoming strike but which remain operational when there is an element of surprise, as there was with Sunday’s operation.

Ukraine’s ‘Operation Spiderweb’ hit at least 13 planes, visuals show

Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery, which bounces microwave radar signals off the Earth’s surface, shows damage to at least eight aircraft at the Belaya air base in the Irkutsk region — 3,400 miles (5,500 kilometers) east of Ukraine, according to analysis from the open-source intelligence team at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies. Geospatial intelligence consultant, Chris Biggers, first posted the SAR image to X, formerly known as Twitter, with a similar analysis.

Another screen recording from a drone operator shows the Olenya base on the Kola Peninsula near Murmansk during and after the attack. The Middlebury team, Goodhind and Janes said the footage shows damage to four TU-95s and an AN-12 plane, which is primarily used as a transport aircraft.

High-resolution satellite imagery captured Monday by the firm Planet Labs shows no significant damage at the Ivanovo base and Dyagilevo air bases in western Russia, according to the Middlebury team, Janes and Goodhind.

“We assess that is unlikely that they would be able to conceal an aircraft loss” in the time between the strike and when the satellite image was taken one day later, Janes said. Citing evidence of scorch marks, they said, “The most probable explanation in the case of Dyagilevo is that the base was targeted but no aircraft hit,” they said.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

New Video: https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1930265207814619335

Ukraine releases additional footage of strikes on four Russian air fields, including on two A-50 aircraft in Ivanovo.

Link from YouTube of the longer video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-ksNjIAkJo

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1930263612674777319

2x A-50 AEW aircraft took direct hits to their radomes, likely costing Russia a third of its remaining fleet.

Ukraine releases new footage of daring AI strikes that crippled Putin’s bomber fleet

“During the operation, modern UAV control technology was used, which combines autonomous artificial intelligence algorithms and manual operator intervention,” said the Security Service of Ukraine, or SBU, the country’s main counterintelligence agency.

"During the flight, some drones lost signal and switched to performing a mission using artificial intelligence along a preplanned route. After approaching and contacting a specifically designated target, the warhead was automatically activated,” the SBU added.

As evidence, the SBU released a collection of new video footage that shows Ukrainian drones hitting engines, antennas, wings and other parts of different Russian strategic and reconnaissance aircraft at four military airfields located thousands of kilometers inside Russia.

Russia frequently uses those airfields to bomb Ukraine’s cities with ballistic and cruise missiles.

“Among the hit aircraft were 'A-50,' 'Tu-95,' 'Tu-22,' 'Tu-160,' as well as 'An-12' and 'Il-78,'” the SBU said, claiming that its clandestine operation caused more than $7 billion worth of financial damage to Russia.

Senior NATO Official to MT: We Expect Putin to Retaliate Against Ukraine for ‘Spider’s Web’ Operation

NATO expects that President Vladimir Putin will seek retaliation against Ukraine for its audacious “Spider’s Web” drone operation, which dealt a significant blow to Russia’s strategic air bases, a senior NATO official told The Moscow Times.

“There will certainly be retaliatory actions that Russia will take. And there will be defensive things that Russia will do,” the senior NATO official told The Moscow Times ahead of the alliance’s defense ministers meeting, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The official warned that these actions could include intensified Russian airstrikes against Ukraine.

“Russia hasn't seemed to need much excuse for pretty severe strikes so far. But I think Russia will use this to cover and justify additional, heavier strikes and stalling negotiations,” the official said.

He said he was aware of further details regarding Moscow’s possible preparations for retaliation but declined to disclose them.

A second senior NATO official confirmed that the alliance had independently verified the damage inflicted on Russia’s strategic aviation fleet by the Ukrainian operation.

He would not say whether the Ukrainian military used intelligence provided by NATO members in planning the secret operation.

“Ukraine’s military managed to damage over 40 Russian aircraft. Ten to 13 of them were destroyed, including at least one A-50 reconnaissance aircraft,” the second official said.

“I can't tell you whether intelligence from any allies was used. But let me point out that the location of Russia's strategic aviation bases is well known — it's public information,” the NATO official said.

The official did not specify how many of the destroyed aircraft were fully operational and involved in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, versus those that were inactive or used for spare parts.

“Is there a risk that Moscow would escalate? I think there's always a risk of escalation,” he said.

How Ukraine pulled off an audacious attack deep inside Russia

The Baza news service, which has close contacts in Russian security and law enforcement, named the main suspect as a 37-year-old Ukrainian who had moved to the Russian region of Chelyabinsk in recent years. Reuters has not been able to verify independently Baza’s account.
According to Baza, which cited unnamed sources, the Ukrainian opened a transportation business in October last year and acquired several trucks in December. It was from these vehicles that the drones used in the attacks were launched, the news service said.
Baza said the drivers of four trucks, who apparently did not know about the nature of their cargoes, were told to drive to different destinations across Russia carrying wooden sheds.
When the trucks were close to their destinations, the drivers were given instructions over the phone where to stop. In one case, Baza reported, the drones began to fly out of the sheds the moment the truck was parked, and in another while the truck was still moving.

 

[fatness]

Merz tells Trump ‘more pressure’ needed on Russia to end its invasion of Ukraine

Trump suggests maybe better letting Russia and Ukraine ‘fight for a while’ before intervening

I really wish the US didn't seem so aimless here.