*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (4 Viewers)

[fatness]

Russia’s economy minister says the country is on ‘the brink of recession’

Russian business news outlet RBC quoted the official as saying “the numbers indicate cooling, but all our numbers are (like) a rearview mirror. Judging by the way businesses currently feel and the indicators, we are already, it seems to me, on the brink of going into a recession.”

But over the long term, inflation and a lack of foreign investments remain threats to the economy, leaving a question mark over how long the militarized economy can keep going.

 

[beer 30]

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-...ssile-strike-91245843b6ef6f191313686458676b82

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Thursday said a Russian missile strike on a nine-story Kyiv apartment building was a sign that more pressure must be applied on Moscow to agree to a ceasefire, as Moscow intensifies attacks in the three-year war. The drone and missile attack on Kyiv early on Tuesday, the deadliest assault on the capital this year, killed 28 people across the city and injured 142 more, Kyiv Military Administration head Tymur Tkachenko said on Thursday. Zelenskyy, along with the head of the presidential office Andrii Yermak and Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko, visited the site of the apartment building in Kyiv’s Solomianskyi district Thursday morning, laying flowers and paying tribute to the 23 people who died there after a direct hit by a missile collapsed the structure. “This attack is a reminder to the world that Russia rejects a ceasefire and chooses killing,” Zelenskyy wrote on Telegram, and thanked Ukraine’s partners who he said are ready to pressure Russia to “feel the real cost of the war.”

Wonder what that means?

Ukraine’s partners who he said are ready to pressure Russia to “feel the real cost of the war.”

 

[fatness]

Russian cannibal soldier ate his own comrade, leaked audio from Ukrainian intel claims

"Nobody ran away. 'Brelok' took him (comrade) out and then ate him for two f*cking weeks," a speaker identified by HUR as a commander of a reconnaissance unit from Russia's 68th Motorized Rifle Division can be heard saying in the intercept.

kyivindependent.com

Yikes.

 

[fatness]

Russia's wartime economic momentum is fading fast, with key resources nearly exhausted, Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said, warning that the country can no longer rely on the same tools that sustained growth in the first two years of the full-scale war against Ukraine, the Moscow Times reported on June 19. Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Nabiullina said that the Russian economy had been expanding on the back of "free resources," including labor, industrial capacity, bank capital reserves, and liquid assets from the National Wealth Fund (NWF) — all of which are now reportedly nearing depletion. "We grew for two years at a fairly high pace because free resources were activated," she said. "We need to understand that many of those resources have truly been exhausted."

Russia's war-fueled economy is running on empty, Central Bank chief warns

"We grew for two years at a fairly high pace because free resources were activated," Russia's Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said.

kyivindependent.com

 

[Sparky Polastri]

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-...ssile-strike-91245843b6ef6f191313686458676b82

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Thursday said a Russian missile strike on a nine-story Kyiv apartment building was a sign that more pressure must be applied on Moscow to agree to a ceasefire, as Moscow intensifies attacks in the three-year war. The drone and missile attack on Kyiv early on Tuesday, the deadliest assault on the capital this year, killed 28 people across the city and injured 142 more, Kyiv Military Administration head Tymur Tkachenko said on Thursday. Zelenskyy, along with the head of the presidential office Andrii Yermak and Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko, visited the site of the apartment building in Kyiv’s Solomianskyi district Thursday morning, laying flowers and paying tribute to the 23 people who died there after a direct hit by a missile collapsed the structure. “This attack is a reminder to the world that Russia rejects a ceasefire and chooses killing,” Zelenskyy wrote on Telegram, and thanked Ukraine’s partners who he said are ready to pressure Russia to “feel the real cost of the war.”

Wonder what that means?

Ukraine’s partners who he said are ready to pressure Russia to “feel the real cost of the war.”

Likely EU members who are currently supporting them. Maybe that support will be increasing?

 

[Chadstroma]

North Korea Dispatching 5000 Military Engineers and 1000 Mine Specialists to Support Russia in Kursk

Russian Security Council Secretary Sergey Shoigu has confirmed that the Korean People’s Army will dispatch 1000 mine clearance experts and 5000 military engineers to

militarywatchmagazine.com

 

[Chadstroma]

Russia's weapons stockpile revealed: How many missiles and drones are left?​

As of June 15, 2025, Russia has more than 1,950 strategic missiles of various types, including ballistic, cruise, and hypersonic Kinzhals, as Ukraine's Defense Intelligence told RBC-Ukraine.

Moscow also owns thousands of Shahed-136 attack drones and their imitators, according to the Ukrainian intelligence (HUR).

Russia's main missile stockpile includes:

・up to 500 9M723 Iskander-M ballistic missiles;

・up to 300 9M728/9M729 Iskander-K cruise missiles

・up to 260 Kh-101 cruise missiles launched by Tu-95 and Tu-160 bombers;

・up to 280 Kh-22/Kh-32 cruise missiles from Tu-22M3 bombers;

・more than 400 3M-14 Kalibr cruise missiles

・up to 150 hypersonic aeroballistic missiles Kh-47M2 Kinzhal on MiG-31K fighters

・up to 60 North Korean-made KN-23 ballistic missiles.

According to the GUR, Russia produces up to 195 missiles per month, including:

・up to 60 Iskander-M missiles

・up to 20 Iskander-K missiles

・up to 60 Kh-101 missiles

・up to 10 modernized Kh-32;

・up to 30 Kalibr missiles

・up to 15 Kinzhals.

Production of drones

According to military intelligence, as of June 15, Russia had more than 6,000 attack UAVs of the Geran-2 (Shahed-136) and Garpiya-A1 types, as well as more than 6,000 imitators (Gerbera).

According to the HUR, Russia is capable of producing up to 170 such drones per day, both attack and imitation.

By the end of this year, Moscow plans to increase the production of these UAVs to 190 units per day.

Russia is increasingly using fast motorcycles and all-terrain vehicles on the battlefield in Ukraine. The aggressor country's reserves of tanks and armored vehicles may last until the end of this year at the most.

Analysts cited a source that monitors equipment in Russian military warehouses using satellite images.

Russia's warehouses store 46% of its pre-war tank stocks, as well as 42% of such stocks of infantry fighting vehicles and 48% of stocks of armored personnel carriers.

 

[Chadstroma]

Zelenskyy: Ukraine to begin export of military technology​

Ukraine intends to begin exporting its military technologies to partner countries in Europe and beyond. This concerns specifically the production facilities for drones, missiles and possibly artillery weapons abroad.

Source: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a meeting with journalists, as reported by Ukrainian news outlet

Details: Zelenskyy stated that exports will open to technology in drones, artillery and missiles. He noted that there are already agreements on access to Ukrainian technologies and the production of weapons in other countries.

Quote: "We started the Build with Ukraine programme and in the summer we will sign the relevant agreements on the beginning of the export of our technologies abroad in the format of opening production lines in Europe and, maybe, not only in those countries that help us, which finance the production of drones and begin financing the production of missiles in Ukraine."

More details: Zelenskyy stressed that the priority is to prevent any transfer of technology to the aggressor state of Russia, making exports to countries sympathetic to Moscow impossible.

He noted that positive signals regarding the export of technologies and the production of weapons come from Denmark, Norway, Germany, the UK and Lithuania.

In 2025, Ukraine reached record levels in financing its own defence industry. "This year we found US$43 billion for the defence industry," Zelenskyy said.

Background: Ukraine meets 40% of its Armed Forces' needs through its domestic defence industry, having significantly increased weapons production.

 

[The Z Machine]

I could see the Czechs and Poles very interested in the Ukrainian developed drone technology. Romania interested in naval drones?

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukrainian air defense downs 339 Russian drones and 15 missiles in overnight attack

Ukraine’s air defense forces neutralized 354 Russian aerial threats during an overnight attack.

One in five to six Russian drones used on Southern front – military spox

Currently, on the front lines, every fifth or sixth drone launched by Russian forces is being used in southern Ukraine.
This was stated during a television broadcast by Spokesperson for the Southern Defense Forces Vladyslav Voloshyn, according to a Ukrinform correspondent.

"In our direction, for example, the enemy carried out 500 FPV drone strikes over the past day. That means every fifth or sixth drone used along the entire line of combat engagement is being used against us. This is a significant number of this type of weapon, so it must be countered," Voloshyn said.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 22, 2025

An officer in a Ukrainian National Guard brigade operating in the Sumy direction reported that Russian forces are attempting to exploit the summer foliage in the area in order to conceal movements from Ukrainian drone operators and are not using armored vehicles.

The spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Lyman direction reported that Russian forces continue to mainly rely on infantry assaults with drone support to advance in the Lyman direction while avoiding mechanized assaults. The spokesperson noted that Russian forces continue to use anti-thermal cloaks in an effort to mask their heat signatures and evade Ukrainian drone strikes during both daytime and overnight missions.

A senior non-commissioned officer (NCO) in a Ukrainian artillery company operating in the Kramatorsk (Chasiv Yar) direction reported that Russian forces are concentrating manpower and intensifying assaults, including assaults with drone and artillery support, in this direction. The NCO stated that Russian forces are struggling to resupply frontline positions and that Russian infantry in the Chasiv Yar direction often lacks adequate food, water, and equipment. The NCO stated that Russian infantry sometimes walk five to six days to reach forward Russian positions and, in some cases, have written notices of surrender due to a lack of water. A spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Chasiv Yar direction stated that Russian forces are constantly transferring reinforcements to this direction due to high sustained casualty rates and that newly arrived Russian troops only receive a month of training.

Ukrainian Khortytsia Group of Forces Spokesperson Major Viktor Trehubov reiterated on June 21 that there are no Russian forces present in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, despite Russian forces intensifying assaults in the Pokrovsk-Novopavlivka directions in attempts to break through to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Trehubov stated that Russian forces are incurring increasingly large personnel and vehicle losses in these assaults and are sustaining as many as 800 daily personnel casualties. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on June 22 that Russian forces sustained a total of 1,100 casualties over the last day - suggesting that Russian forces could be sustaining over 70 percent of their casualties in the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions. A Ukrainian servicemember operating in the Pokrovsk direction stated that Russian forces are using unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) to supply ammunition to forward Russian positions. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed that Shevchenko Pershe is a contested “gray zone,” and that Russian forces are attacking with armored vehicle support into the settlement's northern and eastern outskirts. A milblogger also claimed that Russian forces complicated Ukrainian logistics in the area by destroying two bridges over the Kazenyi Torets River.

Ukraine fighting 10,000 Russian troops in Kursk region, Ukrainian commander says

Around 10,000 Russian soldiers are fighting in Russia's Kursk region, about 90 square kilometers (35 square miles) of which is controlled by Ukraine, Ukraine's top military commander said.
"We control about 90 square kilometers of territory in the Hlushkov district of the Kursk region of the Russian Federation, and these are our preemptive actions in response to a possible enemy attack," Oleksandr Syrskyi said without elaborating, in remarks released by his office for publication on Sunday.

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1936773215633690937

"Syrskyi stressed Ukraine's numerical advantage in FPV drones, but noted that the Russians have been tasked with increasing the number of their drones. He also emphasised that Russia has achieved success, for example, in the production of fibre-optic-controlled drones.

Quote from Syrskyi: 'Unfortunately, they have an advantage there [fibre-optic drones] in terms of both quantity and range of application. We've had examples of [Russian] fibre-optic drones flying up to 40 km. We are currently catching up in this process.'"

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russia bets on unjammable drones to gain ground in Ukraine

Russia seized more Ukrainian territory in May than at any point since November 2024, data from monitoring groups shows. Its advance has continued in recent weeks, as US-brokered peace talks have stalled because of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s maximalist demands.
The Russian advances have been aided by the deployment of a novel model of drones connected with a hair-thin fibre optic cable. Deployed in increasingly large numbers since the start of the year, these unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are immune to Ukrainian jamming, which only works on wireless devices.

“At this point, you’re a lucky man if you drive five kilometres from the frontline and your car is still operational,” a Ukrainian drone unit commander deployed in eastern Donetsk region told the Financial Times. He said his men now sometimes have to walk up to 15km at night to reach their positions.
But Ukrainian forces have been applying similar pressure, according to him: “we control their side of the frontline, and they control ours”.
Rob Lee, a military analyst and senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said the stakes of Russia’s summer offensive were high for both sides.
“Much is riding on what will happen this summer. If Russia struggles to advance, negotiations may have a better chance in the fall or winter . . . but the opposite may happen if Russia manages to make more significant gains, or if winter approaches and it looks like Ukraine has trouble sustaining the fight,” Lee said.

Russia’s largest gains have been in the northern Ukrainian Sumy region, where it was able to seize 200 sq km of territory after pushing Ukrainian forces out of its own border region of Kursk.
Some 350km to the south, a small group of Russian soldiers has reached the border of the Dnipropetrovsk region for the first time since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in 2022, geolocated footage showed. Ukrainian military officials have denied that Russian troops gained a foothold in the region.
One emerging flashpoint along the 1,000km frontline is around the Ukrainian town Kostyantynivka, a major urban redoubt on the way to Kramatorsk, the largest city in Ukrainian-held Donetsk region. Among Putin’s demands is full control of Donetsk and other regions that his troops have only partially occupied.

On the front around Siversk, a town Russian forces now threaten from the east as well as the north and south, local commanders have urged their men to stop all daytime movement on a specific patch of road targeted by drones, one soldier from a territorial defence brigade positioned in the area told the FT. Movement of vehicles in that area should only be done at sunset and at night — “in the grey and in the dark”, he said.
“For now they’re focusing on logistics, hitting up to 30km-40km deep, it’s quite terrible. What will happen next, we don’t know,” the soldier added.
The increasing reach of Russian fibre optic drones has also heightened the threat to large urban centres like Sumy or Kramatorsk, which not only house tens of thousands of civilians but also serve as key military strongholds.
“Even if Russia doesn’t capture cities, it can make it very difficult for these cities to operate in a functional way once they are within artillery and [drone] range,” said Lee.
“Kramatorsk and Slovyansk are the main logistical and command and control hubs for Ukraine in the Donetsk region. Russia getting close will change how Ukraine defends itself.”

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1937464167520182640

Russia has begun using upgraded Shahed-136 “MS” drones supplied by Iran.

These drones are equipped with:
a new Iranian 4-antenna CRPA satellite navigation system;
a camera with an Nvidia Jetson module, which enables terminal target guidance through machine vision.

https://x.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1937397874687398037

So far, the highest monthly total of Russian Shahed-type and imitator drone employments was recorded in March, with 4,198 drones. In June, they have already launched 4,342, and if the current tempo is maintained, the total may exceed 5,000 by the end of the month.

https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1937204380740256083

21st-Century Dragoons: Dissecting Russia’s Motorcycle Assault Tactics

Thread with key findings from Frontelligence Insight analysis on Russia’s Motorcycle Assault Groups: structure, tactics, training, equipment, battlefield performance, and the conditions that enabled them 2/ Though called “assault” groups, Motorcycle Assault Groups serve diverse roles beyond direct assaults - handling diversion, reconnaissance, behind-the-lines infiltration, logistics, and flanking support in larger operations.
3/ More importantly, motorcycles act mainly as rapid transport, ferrying troops to their objectives rather than acting as combat platforms. As analysts @KofmanMichael and B.A. Friedman note, a better analogy is “dragoons” - mounted infantry who rode into battle but fought on foot
4/ The structure of a motorcycle assault group can vary depending on the unit, its assigned tasks, and the resources available to the parent unit. However, such a group typically consists of 6 - 8 motorcycles, with 1 - 2 riders per vehicle.
5/ At least one motorcycle in the group is usually equipped with a drone detection system. Additionally, these groups typically carry 2 to 3 EW stations — either mounted directly on motorcycles or carried in backpacks by riders — to jam drone communications during an assault
6/ Motorcycles with two riders optionally have the passenger as the primary combatant, ready to engage both ground targets and aerial threats, such as drones while on the move. However, in most cases, the passenger is usually just dropped off by the rider before actual engagement
7/ Common Tactical Maneuvers Used by Motorcycle Assault Groups:

- Single Flank: Motorcycles maneuver around the enemy’s position from a flank to strike

- Pincer Movement: Coordinated flanking from both sides aimed at overwhelming or encircling the target.
8/ Deep Penetration: Rapid advance beyond the first line of defense to disrupt rear-area logistics, rotations etc

Diversionary Maneuver: Aimed at drawing enemy attention and fire away from the main assault force

Reconnaissance-in-Force: Probing enemy positions while mobile
9/ Beyond direct combat, motorcycle units fulfill other support roles. They conduct limited medical evacuation - extracting wounded personnel one at a time due to space and weight constraints, and carry critical supplies such as food, water, or ammunition within their load limits
10/ Training.
As of spring 2025, motorcycle and ATV training is underway both within Russia and the occupied territories of Ukraine, integrated on the force groupings level. The training usually takes place on improvised motocross-style tracks, designed for motorcycles
11/ More advanced training programs include drone evasion, where instructors simulate FPV attacks. The duration of training varies widely, ranging from 16 practice hours to over a calendar month, depending on the situation and urgency
12/ Most motorcycles deployed at the front are foreign-made, primarily sourced from China. As with drones, motorcycles often reach units through volunteers, local authorities from the unit’s home region, personal purchases by servicemembers, and state procurement.
13/ As of June 2025, one of the most commonly observed models was the Enduro-style motorcycles, such as Sharmax Sport 280, produced by Sharmax Motors - a a company with manufacturing in China. Prices typically range from 180,000 to 300,000 rubles (approximately $1,900 to $3,200)
14/ Ukrainian infantrymen and drone operators we interviewed expressed skepticism about the growing hype around motorcycles as a battlefield “wunderwaffe,” emphasizing that while useful in certain conditions, motorcycles are merely a platform - not a transformative innovation.
15/ When used properly — with fire support, EW, drones, and armored vehicles — motorcycles can be highly effective. The challenge lies in execution: Russian forces consistently struggle to coordinate combined-arms operations even at the company or battalion level
16/ While more maneuverable than traditional armored vehicles and better at avoiding artillery fire, motorcycles leave riders exposed and vulnerable to shrapnel from the same artillery. High casualty rates and continued vulnerability to FPV drones remain significant problem
17/ Internal Russian Defense Ministry documents, not yet public, indicate motorcycles, ATVs, and buggies will become standard in assault units, with over half the infantry equipped to enhance mobility.
18/ The concept of logistic disruption using drones, backed by artillery and highly mobile infantry under EW cover, is becoming increasingly tangible and a growing threat to Russia's neighbours.

https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1937133205036920893

Russia recruited a retired Polish soldier to assassinate Zelensky in Rzeszòw using a sniper rifle or an FPV drone, claims the head of Ukrainian SBU intelligence Maliuk. The plot was foiled in collaboration with Polish authorities. The Russian agent had been recruited decades ago, he says

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 23, 2025

The commander of a Ukrainian drone regiment operating in the Kharkiv direction stated on June 23 that Russian forces have become more active near Vovchansk. The commander stated that Russian forces were deploying forces with 30 to 45 days of training in January 2025, but are now deploying forces with a maximum of 14 days of training in order to more quickly replenish losses. The commander stated that Russian forces are using lightly armored vehicles sporadically. The spokesperson of a Ukrainian border guards brigade operating in the Vovchansk direction stated on June 23 that Russian forces launch up to 10 assaults daily and have recently increased the number of personnel deployed in each assault to up to 25 personnel per assault, compared to previous assaults with three to 10 personnel. The Ukrainian Border Guard Service reported on June 23 that Russian forces in the Vovchansk direction continue to attack using infantry on motorcycles.

A chief sergeant in a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Chasiv Yar direction stated that Russian forces learned during offensive operations against Pokrovsk that it is difficult to conduct frontal assaults on large settlements and are avoiding attacking Kostyantynivka. The chief sergeant stated that Russian forces are instead attempting to strike Ukrainian logistics and rear areas near Kramatorsk and Druzhkivka to disrupt Ukrainian logistics in the area. The chief sergeant stated that the Russian military command has redeployed significant elements of "Rubikon" Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies from the Pokrovsk direction to the Chasiv Yar direction. The chief sergeant suggested that these redeployments may indicate Russian prioritization of this sector of the front. The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Chasiv Yar direction stated that the Russian military command is actively committing elements of the Russian 98th Airborne (VDV) Division in hopes of seizing Chasiv Yar. The spokesperson stated that Russian forces conduct small infantry assaults “almost continuously,” including with motorcycle support.

https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1937343216883220550

Syrskyi noted that over the course of the war, Ukraine’s approach to fortifications has evolved. He said the Battle of Bakhmut demonstrated that large, battalion-sized strongpoints are unsuitable. Then Ukraine began using company- and then platoon-sized strongpoints, but now squad-sized at most positions are preferred because they offer better defense against FPV drone strikes. And rather than putting positions in open areas to defend against attacks with large numbers of armored vehicles, now they’re built mainly at tree lines. He noted that all positions must be protected from drones.

https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1937351202863280316

According to @Deepstate_UA, Ukraine hasn’t done as good a job of building fortified defensive lines in the Sumy direction as in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and Ukraine failed to take advantage of its time in Kursk Oblast to build fortifications near the border.

https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1937337611258900947

Syrskyi said Russia’s grouping in the Sumy direction remains about 50,000 strong. He also said that within the operational-tactical group responsible for the Sumy direction, Ukraine created a “special group” for defense of Sumy city and building fortifications and appointed an OTU deputy commander for fortifications.

https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1937347676388909284

“‘Since we need to conserve surface-to-air guided missiles, mobile fire groups are prioritized for targeting Shaheds,’ [Syrskyi] said. According to the Commander-in-Chief, mobile fire groups account for the largest share of destroyed enemy [Shahed] drones. The effectiveness of such groups reaches up to 40%.”

Syrskyi said anti-aircraft drones are ~70% effective in downing Shahed drones. He said Ukraine has already fielded approved types of interceptor drones for service and is forming new crews. “However, the main problem regarding the effective use of anti-aircraft drones remains the extremely insufficient number of radar systems (such as the [Israeli] Rada radar or its analogues) in service with the Air Force (there are only a few, but hundreds are needed). Radar reconnaissance means are an integral component for the effective work of UAV interceptor operators,” he said.

Overall, he said, around 82% of Shaheds current get shot down.

War in Ukraine has been a social elevator for part of the Russian population

After more than three years of war in Ukraine, the Kremlin has had to face the paradoxical realities of the social mobility that this conflict has generated across the country. "Vladimir Putin's regime, which had not initially anticipated such a long and large-scale war, has managed to turn it into a genuine social elevator for many Russians. However, in the long term, the price to be paid by the federal budget could be steep," said Marlène Laruelle, professor of international affairs at the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at George Washington University. The French Institute of International Relations (IFRI) published her latest report on the subject on Thursday, June 19: "The Socio-Economic Impact of Russian Military Keynesianism."
The war has partially redressed disparities in wealth, consumption levels and social prestige in Russia by providing financial benefits to peripheral areas, located far from Moscow and other major cities. "From 2022 to 2024, the war was beneficial for deep Russia. What the Kremlin had not been able to achieve in two decades of peace, it managed to get through three years of war: a redistributive effect from the richest regions to the poorest ones," said Laruelle. In the poor regions of Russia, a new middle class has emerged, with salaries and incomes in those remote areas approaching those in the country's wealthy major cities.

The reorganization of Russia's economy toward China has also created winners: some regions in the Far Eastern federal district have become major logistics hubs. None of these regions have any interest in seeing the public financial windfall come to an end. This fact led to one of the report's more troubling conclusions: These areas' populations will support the perpetuation of a Cold War mindset, one in which military spending remains a high priority, even once there is no ongoing direct military conflict.
On the other hand, Russia's "military Keynesianism" has generated extensive financial support for the hundreds of thousands of men on the front lines – and for their families. Authorities have offered salaries of around 200,000 rubles per month (about $2,000, compared to a national average of $800, in 2024), along with signing bonuses of up to 2 million rubles ($20,000). As a result, in the summer of 2024, combat soldiers' wages ranked in the top 10-15% nationwide. Many of these recruits came from the country's poorest areas: Transbaikalia, Altai, Adygea, Pskov, and the republics of Tuva, Buryatia, and Dagestan, among others. "This increase in purchasing power fueled a consumption boom: the Russians from these regions bought household goods, renovated their homes, ordered cars and went on seaside vacations," noted Laruelle.

The map of the Russian regions that have sent the most recruits to the front lines correlates with a map of regions that have seen the largest increases in bank deposits. Banks have also reported increases in real estate and consumer loans. "Some families said to themselves: my son is on the front, we're going to receive money, so I can take out a loan," said Laruelle. Once again, the Russian population's growing habituation to the war and the generous income streams it has produced could make it easier for the regime's hawks to stir up popular support for new military ventures.

Yet now, three years after the war began, the socio-economic benefits for Russia's poorest citizens seem to be reaching their limits. "These booms have now faded, and the catch-up effect has been partly canceled out. There are signs of fatigue: the end of increases to bonuses for front-line volunteers, the end of rising wages in military industries, accelerating inflation, etc. And the growth in bank loans risks leading to a new debt crisis," said Laruelle.
Another concern: "War veterans, soldiers and volunteers returning from the front, but also the widows of those who died there, represent nearly 1 million Russians. A social challenge for the state," said Laruelle. Other tensions are likely to emerge between families whose men went to the front lines and those whose husbands and sons hid from recruiters. "It will be difficult for the Kremlin to manage this problem. All the more so since its elites called for the war but, in fact, did everything they could to prevent their own children from going to the front. Resentment may well emerge," said Laruelle. One last risk: soldiers coming back from the front will feed the mercenary market, Laruelle said: "They will be in demand everywhere in the world!" These men will come back with experience, and will be looking for incomes as high as those they earned during the war.

 

[Dezbelief]

Ukraine destroys Russian ship in Black Sea Fleet—Video

The targeted vessel was transporting landing troops when it was struck by Ukrainian forces.

www.newsweek.com

Another russian Black Sea Fleet boat with enemy troops onboard — destroyed while moving along the western coast of Kherson region," Ukraine's defense ministry announced on X, formerly Twitter, on Tuesday.

Russia is now racing to build a vessel that dwarfs the Moskva, according to Ukrainian military publication Defense Express, which published satellite images in April showing the progress Russia is making on one of its two Project 23900 Ivan Rogov-class amphibious assault ships. These vessels are reportedly capable of carrying up to 90 pieces of military equipment, including 15 helicopters.

The Ivan Rogov-class vessel currently under construction is reportedly much larger, suggesting that Moscow aims to restore its naval credibility amid a string of losses suffered by the Black Sea Fleet during the war.

Return of the Bayraktar: TB2 Drone Strikes Again in Ukraine - Naval News

A Ukrainian Naval Forces video shows a Bayraktar TB2 drone engaging a Russian military boat in the Kherson area (Southern Ukraine).

www.navalnews.com

After months of silence, a new video has surfaced showing the return of one of the most iconic assets of Ukraine’s early defense against Russia, the Bayraktar TB2. Shared on social media on June 24, 2025, the footage (which features the VMS ZSU, ‘Military Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine’) shows a TB2 unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) engaging a Russian military boat in the Kherson area, reportedly destroying it with a precision strike. The engagement marks the first publicly seen use of the TB2 in months

 

[Dezbelief]

'Something unknown' hits key Russian drone facility in Taganrog, Ukrainian official says

"Something unknown flew into the Atlant-Aero plant in Taganrog," Andrii Kovalenko, head of the counter-disinformation center, said. "This is an important node in the Russian military-industrial complex, specializing in components for combat drones and control systems."

kyivindependent.com

A key military-industrial site in the Russian city of Taganrog linked to Moscow's production of combat drones and electronic warfare systems was damaged overnight, a Ukrainian official said on June 25, amid Russian reports of Ukrainian drones targeting the area.

"Something unknown flew into the Atlant-Aero plant in Taganrog," Andrii Kovalenko, head of the counter-disinformation center at Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council said.

"This is an important node in the Russian military-industrial complex, specializing in components for combat drones and control systems."

Kovalenko said the plant is involved in the production of "Orion" drones, electronic warfare complexes, and digital integration systems for strike FPV (first person view) drones and loitering munitions

Russian authorities reported a wave of overnight Ukrainian drone attacks across multiple regions, including Rostov, which borders eastern Ukraine. Russia's Defense Ministry said its forces shot down 40 Ukrainian drones over several areas, including the Crimean Peninsula and seven over the Rostov region.

Rostov Governor Yuri Slyusar said on Telegram that while there were no casualties, the strikes allegedly caused a fire at a sports complex and damaged a high school and two residential buildings in Taganrog. In nearby Azov, a grain warehouse and industrial facility were hit, he added, without providing further detail.

The Kyiv Independent could not verify the claims.

 

[BassNBrew]

Russia's wartime economic momentum is fading fast, with key resources nearly exhausted, Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said, warning that the country can no longer rely on the same tools that sustained growth in the first two years of the full-scale war against Ukraine, the Moscow Times reported on June 19. Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Nabiullina said that the Russian economy had been expanding on the back of "free resources," including labor, industrial capacity, bank capital reserves, and liquid assets from the National Wealth Fund (NWF) — all of which are now reportedly nearing depletion. "We grew for two years at a fairly high pace because free resources were activated," she said. "We need to understand that many of those resources have truly been exhausted."

Russia's war-fueled economy is running on empty, Central Bank chief warns

"We grew for two years at a fairly high pace because free resources were activated," Russia's Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said.

kyivindependent.com

Dzherom "too late" KaPow could just cut interest rates and fix this.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

N. Korea likely to deploy additional troops to Russia in July or August: spy agency

North Korea is likely to send additional troops to support Russia's war against Ukraine in July or August, South Korea's spy agency told lawmakers Thursday.

The National Intelligence Service (NIS) made the assessment in a closed-door briefing to the parliamentary intelligence committee, as Russia's media reported that Pyongyang will send 5,000 military construction workers and 1,000 sappers to Russia's Kursk region, in another possible sign of their deepening military alignment.

The NIS also noted that North Korea has supported Russia by providing over 10 million artillery shells, missiles and long-range weapons, in exchange for economic cooperation and technical support from Moscow.

Ukrainian forces halt Russian advance in Sumy region, says army chief

The head of Ukraine's army, Gen Oleksandr Syrskyi, has said his troops have stopped Russian advances in the northeastern border region of Sumy.

During a visit to the front on Thursday, Syrskyi said the line of combat had been "stabilised" and that the Russian summer offensive in the area had been "choked off".

However, Syrskyi also added that he had personally gone to check on fortifications in the region and that more were urgently needed.

Syrskyi's comments on the successes of the Ukrainian troops in Sumy back recent statements by Ukrainian officials that Russia's pressure on the region was declining.

However, the situation remained "volatile", Border Guard spokesperson Andriy Demchenko said earlier this week.

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1938552707221991714

General Syrsky says that Russia's force on the Pokrovsk front totals approximately 111,000 personnel.

Defence in Donetsk Oblast: Vuhledar tactical group regularly submitted false reports – DeepState

DeepState, a Ukrainian group of military analysts, has reported the systematic submission of false reports by some units of the Vuhledar tactical group, which has created a distorted perception of the situation on the line of contact.

Source: DeepState

Quote: "On the section of the front held by the now-former Vuhledar tactical group, the defence continues to collapse rapidly and the enemy is making significant gains in its advance.

It is particularly concerning that units in the Vuhledar tactical group's area have repeatedly submitted false reports, claiming they are controlling certain settlements or individual positions. But this does not improve the actual situation. The next map update will be disappointing."

Details: DeepState reported that Russian forces had made significant advances near the settlements of Shevchenko, Burlatske and Vilne Pole on the Novopavlivka front in Donetsk Oblast.

Analysts said that the Russians are conducting intensive assault operations along the Oleksiivka – Zelene Pole line, using a large number of infantry. Russian forces are also advancing from Zaporizhzhia towards Zirky.

In addition, the Russians are actively moving infantry into the village of Komar, trying to fully capture it. Constant assaults are ongoing in the Shevchenko – Vilne Pole – Novosilka area.

https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1938580880877912507

Ukraine’s defense minister said Ukrainian forces have received as many as 1.5 million drones so far this year and will receive over 4 million by EOY. He also said Kyiv placed contracts for several tens of thousands of long-range OWA drones last year and is preparing to order tens of thousands more.

https://x.com/nolanwpeterson/status/1938369051211804734

Another loud night in Kyiv. Russian Shaheds are over the city & can hear air defenses working. Reports of Russian long-range strike drones flying all over the country. The new normal here in Kyiv and across Ukraine.
Explosion in Kyiv city center. Shaheds overhead. Another focused attack on the capital tonight. Russia basically chooses a city to overwhelm with drones each night. Tonight it’s Kyiv.

Russian attack on key energy facility plunges parts of southern Ukraine 'into darkness,' governor says

Russian forces struck a critical energy facility in Kherson Oblast, causing widespread power outages across several communities, Governor Oleksandr Prokudin said on June 27.

"Russia decided to plunge Kherson Oblast into darkness," Prokudin wrote on Telegram. He said the attack has disrupted electricity supply to multiple settlements.

Local power engineers are working to stabilize the situation, Prokudin said.

"I ask the residents of the region to prepare for a prolonged power outage. Power engineers are doing everything possible to stabilize the situation," he said.

https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1938259072563736993

Western sanctions are crushing Putin's shadow fleet of oil tankers. We live-track volumes on 343 shadow fleet ships, most of which are now sanctioned. Activity levels have collapsed in the wake of last month's wave of EU and UK sanctions.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://x.com/GrandpaRoy2/status/1938575886485508136

“Drone war is not the future, it is yesterday.”
A Russian blogger gives advice on surviving under the constant gaze of Mavic drones.

“How to survive under the ‘bird’: the fight against small surveillance UAVs.
1/
“Where there is Mavic, there is death. This is not a joke, but the everyday reality of the front. Small enemy reconnaissance aircraft fly without days off or holidays. Here's how not to become a meatball in their reports.
2/
“1. A drone detector is a soldier's best friend
A group must have at least one, or better yet, a pair of devices like ‘Bulat’. Cheaper than a death notice. Constant air monitoring is a rule of survival.
3/
“2. ‘I don't see a drone’ ≠ ‘There is no drone.’
The operator of the Mavic E or PRO can easily see movement from 2+ km. So if you are walking along a forest belt and enjoying the silence, know that you may already be the main character on someone else's monitor.
4/
“A copter is like a gopher from DMB: you can't see it, but it's there.

3. The copter's path is not a straight line
An experienced drone operator knows how to approach not head-on, but around - it can fly in from the rear, from the sides, from anywhere.
5/
Don't relax if ‘there's nothing in the sky.’

4. Night is not salvation, but a change in the rules
At night, a copter needs to fly closer to see the target. This means:
• Keep your distance from your partners - a thermal imager sees a dense group better than a lone wolf.
6/
“• A cigarette? Yes, you can. It's visible from 100 meters. But if they shoot from the ground with NVGs, it's better not to show up at all
• Have a shelter with you - a raincoat, a thermal cape, anything that you can quickly throw on when you hear a buzz.
7/
“5. The best time to move is heat and sunset.
At dusk, especially in the heat, the equipment and roads are still warm, and you are not visible against their background. An hour after sunset is a window of shadow, when daytime drones are already tired, …
8/
“…and night drones have not yet come out.

6. Pretend to be a corpse? Forget it
A thermal imager unmistakably shows where it's warm, which means where life is. It works worse than a bad joke.
9/
“7. Disguise as garbage - only in movies
A person moves, and that's the main thing. Even if you covered yourself with cellophane and dug yourself into the dirt - twitched your finger and got on the record. The drone operator will figure you out. Fast,
10/
“8. Garbage is a shot in the back
Plastic, cans, packaging - all this is an activity map for the enemy. The more garbage - the greater the chance that your point will be added to the arrival queue.
11/
“9. Dust is a companion of death for equipment
When driving a car on dry ground - you raise dust. From 8 km you can see that something big is driving. Then comes reconnaissance and only then - a flight of FPV drones with bombs on board. Do not show yourself.
12/
“Drone war is not the future, it is yesterday. If you have not adapted, then you have become a target. It is too late to catch birds with your eyes - you need to change your behavior. Take care of yourself and your unit - think like a drone operator, live like a saboteur.”
13/13

Interesting read: I Fought in Ukraine and Here’s Why FPV Drones Kind of Suck

During my time in Ukraine, I collected statistics on the success of our drone operations. I found that 43 percent of our sorties resulted in a hit on the intended target in the sense that the drone was able to successfully fly all the way to the target, identify it correctly, hit it, and the drone’s explosive charge detonated as it was supposed to. This number does not include instances when our higher command requested a sortie but we had to decline because we knew that we could not strike the target for reasons such as weather, technical problems, or electronic interference. If this type of pre-aborted mission is included in the total, the success rate drops to between 20 and 30 percent. On the face of it, this success rate is bad, but that is not the whole story.

I began to notice that the vast majority of our sorties were against targets that had already been struck successfully by a different weapons system, most commonly by a mortar or by a munition dropped by a reusable drone (in other words, not a first-person view drone). Put differently, the goal of the majority of our missions was to deliver the second tap in a double-tap strike against a target that had already been successfully prosecuted by a different weapons system. The proportion of missions when we successfully carried out a task that only a first-person view drone can fulfill — delivering a precision strike on a target that could not be hit by other means — was in the single-digit percent.

There are two reasons why these drones rarely successfully do what they were designed to do. The first has to do with how commanders choose to employ first-person view drones. Presumably, our commanders decided that they had first-person view drones as a capability, so they might as well use them, even if there were other weapons systems that could also do the job. There is a certain logic to this, and the commanders were not paying for the expended drones out of their own pockets. They were more focused on the immediate mission. While first-person view drones are cheap, they are usually not the cheapest option available to commanders. This is the problem with using them in double-tap strikes or for missions that can be achieved by other systems. One of these drone sorties costs about $500 in materiel. A mortar shell costs less than $100. A munition dropped from a reusable drone, usually also something like a modified mortar shell or 40-millimeter grenade, also costs less than $100.

The second reason why these drones rarely do what they were designed to do is technical. They are finicky, unreliable, hard to use, and susceptible to electronic interference. Few first-person view drones have night-vision capability. Those that do are in short supply and cost twice as much as the base model. In Ukraine, in the winter, it’s dark for 14 hours a day. Wind, rain, snow, and fog all mean a drone cannot fly.

A solid quarter of all these drones have some sort of technical fault that prevents them from taking off. This is usually discovered only when they are being prepped for launch. The most common is a fault in the radio receiver that receives inputs from the control panel, or in the video transmitter that transmits the signal to the operator’s virtual-reality goggles. Sometimes this fault can be fixed through a software update in the field. Often, it cannot. Many faulty drones are simply cannibalized for spare parts, because there is no better use for them. Even once a drone is airborne, batteries often die mid-flight. In about 10 percent of sorties, the drone hits the target, but its warhead does not detonate.

Once airborne, operating a first-person view drone successfully is not easy. These drones were originally designed to be toys for rich people. Before they were press-ganged into service as tools of war, they were used either in aerobatic displays or in races where a group of operators would compete in flying through an obstacle course. In either case, the drones were not meant to be easy to fly. They were meant to be highly maneuverable, but also unstable. First-person view drones cannot really hover, fly slowly, or linger above a target. The assumption among hobbyists is that enthusiasts will invest the time and money to become proficient at flying. As a result, training a highly proficient operator can take months. A standard, base-level course for Ukrainian drone pilots takes about five weeks. The quality of operators it prepares is questionable, and graduates of the course need extra on-the-job experience to become truly proficient. Most drone pilots I encountered did not go through this course. Instead, they learned to fly drones on the job. Even experienced operators routinely miss their targets and crash into trees, power lines, or other obstacles.

To keep costs down, the first-person view drones used by Ukrainian forces have no navigational aids, such as a compass, a GPS receiver (though it should be noted that using GPS often would not be possible anyway due to widespread GPS signal jamming), or an inertial navigation system. The operator relies on their knowledge of the local terrain and on verbal instructions from a navigator, who usually has access to the video from the first-person view drone itself and from other reconnaissance assets that are tracking the target.

But the greatest obstacle to the successful use of these drones by far is the unreliability of the radio link between the operator and the drone. One of the reasons why hitting a target at ground level with precision is difficult is that when first-person view drones get close to the ground, due to obstacles, they start to lose their radio connection to the operator, often located up to 10 kilometers away. In some cases, drones cannot attack a target if it is simply on the wrong side of a tall building or hill because the building or hill blocks the line of sight between the drone and the operator. Sometimes, the operator can work around the loss of signal close to the ground by climbing, pointing the drone at the target, and hoping inertia will take it to its target once they have lost control. When striking a small target like a doorway, a window, or the entrance to a basement, this degrades precision significantly.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

New deadly Shaheds now fitted with camera, AI: Ukraine’s intel details new features

The Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defense Ministry posted on their War&Sanctions platform updates on the components of the modernized Shahed-136, now equipped with a camera and artificial intelligence softwware.

The structure of the body material, design and layout of the electronic units indicate that the UAV is of Iranian production. At the same time, certain changes and upgrades may point to joint Russoo-Iranian work on modernizing the weapon.

The UAV contains a high-speed Nvidia Jetson Orin minicomputer, specialized for AI tasks and video processing, as well as an infrared camera similar to the one previously reported by Russia.

The purpose of the module is to receive information from the UAV camera and compare it with downloaded models for additional guidance or automatic target selection. The drone can also be employed as a reconnaissance aircraft.

As the GUR recalled, Russia also uses Nvidia Jetson Orin in its V2U attack drone.

The intelligence agency says tech exchange between Iran and Russia is bilateral, and the result of their cooperation may go far beyond the Russo-Ukrainian war if Iran utilizes the experience of Russian developments in its destabilizing efforts in the Middle East.

Russia accelerates missile production with China’s help

Moscow is reportedly using Chinese companies and Russian intermediaries to dodge Western sanctions on manufacturing equipment for missiles.
It is building up stockpiles that would last for two years if the current pace of strikes against Ukraine was maintained, according to an investigation by the Kyiv Independent newspaper.

Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) officials told the Kyiv Independent that Russia was not just ramping up production to replace missiles used in the war.
“According to our data, Russia is building up a stockpile of missiles of various types,” said a senior HUR official. “They are preparing for a long war.”

Last year, Russia produced nearly three times more Iskander-M ballistic missiles – 700 compared with 250 –than in 2023, said the London-based Rusi think tank.
Despite intensified missile attacks on Ukrainian cities, Russia is not using all the missiles it is producing, which suggests a stockpile is being built up.

HUR believes Russia has reserves of about 600 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and another 300 Iskander-K cruise missiles – enough for two years of fighting.

Russia’s state-owned Votkinsk plant produces ballistic and cruise missiles, such as the Iskander weapons used in air strikes against Ukrainian cities. It also manufactures intercontinental ballistic missiles able to deliver nuclear warheads across the planet.
These include the Yars and Bulava, designed to reach the US, and potentially the Oreshnik, which, it is claimed, can hit anywhere in Europe.
The Votkinsk plant is blacklisted by the US and its allies, which forbid the sale of any materials, machinery or microelectronics used in missiles to Russia. But the missile hub has hired 2,500 extra workers, built new facilities and significantly increased production since the Ukraine war began in 2022.
The Kremlin used private Russian intermediaries to source the specialised equipment from companies in China, Belarus and Taiwan. Those countries have not joined the international sanctions against Russia, and China and Belarus are close allies of Moscow.

Russia's short-range drone strikes cause over 3,000 civilian casualties in Ukraine, UN reports

Short-range drone attacks have become one of the deadliest threats to civilians in Ukraine’s front-line regions, killing at least 395 people and injuring 2,635 between February 2022 and April 2025, according to a new bulletin by the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine.

North Korea deployed 20% of Kim's elite 'personal reserve' to fight against Ukraine in Russia, Umerov says

North Korea has already deployed around 11,000 elite troops to support Russia's war against Ukraine, accounting for more than 20% of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's elite "personal reserve" force, Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said during a June 26 press briefing.

"These are soldiers specially selected based on physical, psychological, and other criteria," Umerov said. "These units have already suffered significant losses."

Umerov said intelligence indicates North Korea had considered sending additional forces to fight with Russia. However, according to Umerov, the move would further deplete its strategic reserves and increase risks to regime stability. There have been four known rotations of North Korean units deployed against Ukraine, according to Umerov.

Significant movement of enemy armor and troops observed in Mariupol

A substantial movement of enemy armored vehicles and personnel has been observed in the temporarily occupied city of Mariupol in the Donetsk region. According to reports, Russian forces may escalate their assault attempts on the Huliaipole and Orikhiv sectors in the Zaporizhzhia region in the coming days.
This update was shared via Telegram by Petro Andriushchenko, head of the Center for the Study of Occupation and former advisor to the mayor of Mariupol, as reported by Ukrinform.

Russia’s 888 chemical attacks in single month exposed

The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) has confirmed that Russia is systematically using chemical weapons against the Ukrainian Armed Forces. According to Ukraine’s General Staff, 888 instances of chemical agents being used by Russian forces were recorded on the battlefield in May 2025 alone.
As reported by Ukrinform, this was stated by the Center for Strategic Communications and Information Security on Facebook, commenting on the OPCW’s latest report.

“The report confirms that Russia is systematically using tear gas agents, classified as riot control agents, in combat, which is explicitly banned as a method of warfare under international law,” the statement says.

These banned substances were found in grenades used by Russian troops against Ukrainian defenders.

This is now the third OPCW report confirming that Russia is deliberately and repeatedly violating the Chemical Weapons Convention.

Russia offers cash to teachers to Russify occupied Ukraine, report says

Russia is using financial incentives to recruit teachers, cultural workers, and coaches to work in occupied parts of Ukraine in a campaign aimed at reshaping local identity and fostering loyalty to Moscow’s regime, according to a report published by the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) on June 26.

The Kremlin is offering up to two million rubles (around $22,000) to Russian teachers who agree to work for five years in occupied areas of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts, and one million rubles for positions in Crimea.

 

[Chaos34]

Appreciate it Toews.

 

[Dezbelief]

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukraine-says-it-hits-four-warplanes-russias-volgograd-region-2025-06-27/

June 27 (Reuters) - Ukraine's military said on Friday it had struck four warplanes at an airbase in central Russia's Volgograd Region as part of a drive to hit Russian war assets.

In a post on the Telegram messaging app, the military said it had hit four Su-34 aircraft at the Marinovka base outside the city of Volgograd, some 900 km (550 miles) from the Ukrainian border

Ukraine war latest: Ukrainian drones reportedly strike 4 fighter jets in Russia

Key developments on June 27: * Ukraine war latest: Ukrainian drones reportedly strike 4 fighter jets in Russia * North Korea deployed 20% of Kim's elite 'personal reserve' to fight against Ukraine in Russia, Umerov says * Pro-Palestinian activists reportedly destroy military equipment...

kyivindependent.com

According to preliminary data, two Russian fighter jets were destroyed, and the other two were damaged. Russia uses such aircraft to bomb Ukraine, particularly to drop guided aerial bombs, the General Staff said.

The attack also caused a fire in the airfield's technical and operational unit, a facility where combat aircraft are serviced and repaired, according to the General Staff.

The Kyiv Independent could not independently verify these claims.

 

[Dezbelief]

Russia revives obsolete T-62 tanks amid equipment shortages, Ukraine's intel claims

"The key factors limiting the ability to produce modern armored vehicles in Russia are a lack of industrial capacity and a shortage of imported high-tech components," Ukraine's military intelligence said.

kyivindependent.com

Russia transferred 21 T-62 tanks from its eastern military district to the European part of the country, the intel claimed.

HUR said that Russia’s stockpile of Soviet-era tanks from the 1970s is being depleted, while most T-62s are even in worse condition after decades of open-air storage without maintenance.

Some of these tanks can also be used at the front as stationary firing points to reinforce defensive positions.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/27/world/pokrovsk-russia-ukraine-war-troops-intl

Russia has amassed 110,000 troops in the vicinity of Pokrovsk as part of its efforts to take over the strategic eastern Ukrainian city, the Ukrainian military chief said Friday.

Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Friday that the area around Pokrovsk was the “hottest spot” along the 1,200-kilometre (745 miles) front line which runs across the east.

Russian forces have been trying to capture Pokrovsk for almost a year, staging one grinding offensive after another. But despite having a clear advantage in terms of the number of troops and weapons available, Moscow has failed to take over the city.

 

[Dezbelief]

https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/29/europe/ukraine-f-16-pilot-killed-russia

CNN
—
A Ukrainian pilot was killed and his F-16 fighter jet crashed after Russia launched a huge aerial assault involving hundreds of drones and scores of missiles overnight, the Ukrainian military said on Sunday.

The airman, named as 1st Class Lt. Col. Maksym Ustymenko by the Ukrainian air force, was the third F-16 pilot killed since the Ukrainians began flying the jets last summer, and his plane was the fourth F-16 Ukraine has lost since then.

The air force said Ustymenko “did everything he could to steer the aircraft away from a populated area, but he did not have time to eject.”

Ustymenko’s death is a major loss for Ukraine. Only a small number of the country’s top pilots have been trained to fly F-16s, the most advanced of Ukraine’s fighter jets. The training is highly specialized and takes months to complete.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ustymenko destroyed seven targets before being killed, praising him and the Ukrainian air force for “heroically protecting” the country’s skies.

Zelensky said Moscow launched 477 drones and 60 missiles towards six different locations overnight into Sunday – one of Russia’s largest ever aerial assaults in terms of weapons deployed, according to a CNN tally.

 

[The Z Machine]

https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/29/europe/ukraine-f-16-pilot-killed-russia

CNN
—
A Ukrainian pilot was killed and his F-16 fighter jet crashed after Russia launched a huge aerial assault involving hundreds of drones and scores of missiles overnight, the Ukrainian military said on Sunday.

The airman, named as 1st Class Lt. Col. Maksym Ustymenko by the Ukrainian air force, was the third F-16 pilot killed since the Ukrainians began flying the jets last summer, and his plane was the fourth F-16 Ukraine has lost since then.

The air force said Ustymenko “did everything he could to steer the aircraft away from a populated area, but he did not have time to eject.”

Ustymenko’s death is a major loss for Ukraine. Only a small number of the country’s top pilots have been trained to fly F-16s, the most advanced of Ukraine’s fighter jets. The training is highly specialized and takes months to complete.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ustymenko destroyed seven targets before being killed, praising him and the Ukrainian air force for “heroically protecting” the country’s skies.

Zelensky said Moscow launched 477 drones and 60 missiles towards six different locations overnight into Sunday – one of Russia’s largest ever aerial assaults in terms of weapons deployed, according to a CNN tally.

So he was up and patrolling and then a huge wave of drones came up on his radar and he engaged? But what took down the F-16? Anti-air SAM? Or another plane?

Also, remind me if the F-16 has auto cannons or just missiles.

 

[Chadstroma]

https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/29/europe/ukraine-f-16-pilot-killed-russia

CNN
—
A Ukrainian pilot was killed and his F-16 fighter jet crashed after Russia launched a huge aerial assault involving hundreds of drones and scores of missiles overnight, the Ukrainian military said on Sunday.

The airman, named as 1st Class Lt. Col. Maksym Ustymenko by the Ukrainian air force, was the third F-16 pilot killed since the Ukrainians began flying the jets last summer, and his plane was the fourth F-16 Ukraine has lost since then.

The air force said Ustymenko “did everything he could to steer the aircraft away from a populated area, but he did not have time to eject.”

Ustymenko’s death is a major loss for Ukraine. Only a small number of the country’s top pilots have been trained to fly F-16s, the most advanced of Ukraine’s fighter jets. The training is highly specialized and takes months to complete.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ustymenko destroyed seven targets before being killed, praising him and the Ukrainian air force for “heroically protecting” the country’s skies.

Zelensky said Moscow launched 477 drones and 60 missiles towards six different locations overnight into Sunday – one of Russia’s largest ever aerial assaults in terms of weapons deployed, according to a CNN tally.

So he was up and patrolling and then a huge wave of drones came up on his radar and he engaged? But what took down the F-16? Anti-air SAM? Or another plane?

Also, remind me if the F-16 has auto cannons or just missiles.

Most likely from this blurb, it would have been debris from attacking the drones he was taking down. What a hero for staying with it to get it out from civilian areas. The F-16 has a 20mm on it. All modern fighters still have guns on them.... they only tried doing away with guns with the early F-4's before realizing that was a horrible idea.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1939123375433027592

Bohdan Krotevych, former Chief of Staff of the 12th Brigade, notes that in some areas, a unit is spread across a stretch of more than five kilometers with just 10 to 12 soldiers. Only 25% of the battalion's original personnel remain.

Few important points to add here:
2/ One of the first things people assume is that Ukraine isn’t recruiting or mobilizing, but this isn’t true. We estimate that 17,000 to 24,000 people are being called up each month. That’s still below Russia’s numbers, but far above what Russians want people to think
3/ At the tactical level, some units with capable leadership have adapted to the situation, partially offsetting personnel shortages through the effective use of drones, well-prepared positions, and, if possible, minefields. Yet, these are not the result of a systematic effort
4/ At the operational-strategic level, not much has changed since 2024. There have been taken steps - changes in training, drone scoring systems, system for transfers between units, and the move to a corps structure - but key problems in organizational leadership are still there
5/ In my view, this likely reinforces Putin’s belief that victory remains within reach - one of several factors driving his decision to prolong the war, despite the mounting toll both within Russia and his troops along the front lines

Russia’s summer offensive stalls

Russia’s summer offensive in Ukraine is faltering just weeks after it began, despite a record number of attacks across multiple fronts.
Data analysis by The Telegraph shows Moscow is on track to break its own record, which was set last month, for offensive operations in June. Yet the sheer volume of assaults has not translated into meaningful breakthroughs on the battlefield.
The offensive – launched in May but planned over the winter – stretches from the northern border regions of Sumy and Kharkiv to the front lines in Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk, into which Russian forces are attempting to break for the first time.
Moscow spent the winter months building up manpower, refining tactics and improving the co-ordination of missile and drone strikes. At first, there were signs it was paying off.
In May, Russian forces advanced at the fastest pace seen since last November, gaining an average of 5.5 square miles a day – double the rate of April, according to DeepState, a Ukrainian open-source intelligence project that tracks territorial changes.
Steady gains were made in the Donetsk region, especially between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, two of Moscow’s key targets. But several weeks into the campaign, momentum is slipping.

“The capacity to start something new and distinct really isn’t there for the Russians right now. The summer offensive is just going to be the continuation of what they’ve been doing in spring,” Angelica Evans, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), told The Telegraph.
In Sumy, Russian forces appear to have stalled entirely. Having re-entered the region in January and intensified their push this spring, Moscow’s troops have failed to make further gains. Instead, Ukraine has recaptured some territory.
Pavlo Narozhny, a Ukrainian military analyst from Sumy, told The Telegraph that Russia’s main target in the region has been Yunakivka, which lies directly on the road that connects Russia to the centre of Sumy.
Should Russia manage to take the town, it would then move on to nearby villages on the edge of a large forest. This, Mr Narozhny said, would be a “disaster” for Ukraine, adding: “The forest leads right up to Sumy city, so if they manage to bring in artillery to Yunakivka and into the forest, they can reach Sumy city with artillery.”

Despite heavy fighting, Ukraine has managed to slow down Russia’s advances in the region, according to the ISW, which said Russia was sending out thousands of poorly-trained soldiers to lead the advance – a pattern seen across the front line.
“The Russian offensive has broadly stalled … They have the advantage in manpower and drones but their infantry is very poorly trained, if at all,” a senior Ukrainian NCO, who is fighting in the Kupiansk direction in Donetsk, told The Telegraph.

“Russia has really been focused on what we call the Ukrainian fortress belt, which includes Kramatorsk, Kostiantynivka and Sloviansk,” said Ms Evans. “But they haven’t really shown since the first few months of the war to make very rapid and widespread advances they would need to take these cities.”
In Donetsk, if Russian forces were able to take Kostiantynivka, a critical Ukrainian logistics hub, it would then pave the way for attacks on Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, taking Putin one step closer to controlling the entire Donbas region.
But given the current pace of Russia’s assault and the poor training of their men, this is unlikely.
“To take Kramatorsk they would need an additional 100,000 men,” the Ukrainian NCO said. “They needed 40,000 to take Avdiivka, 70,000 to take Bakhmut, and that included some very well-trained and capable Wagner mercenaries.”
Indeed, despite an apparent manpower advantage of up to 20 to one in some sectors, Ukrainian troops defending Kostiantynivka have held their ground.

Despite a general lack of momentum, Russian forces this week have notched one notable success – the seizure of a valuable lithium deposit in western Donetsk. The mine, just outside Shevchenko village, was taken in recent days, according to geolocated footage.
Though only 100 acres in size, it is one of Ukraine’s richest known lithium reserves. Its loss will be a blow to Kyiv’s long-term development goals, especially as it courts Western investment in post-war reconstruction.

Russian Barrage of Drones and Missiles Hits Beyond Usual Ukraine Targets

Russia pounded Ukraine overnight with hundreds of drones and missiles, the Ukrainian authorities said on Sunday, in one of the war’s largest assaults. Strikes on infrastructure were reported across the country, including in western Ukraine, which Russia hits less frequently.
The attack was the latest in a series of escalating Russian air assaults, with Moscow repeatedly setting new marks for the number of weapons used. The Ukrainian Air Force said Russia had launched 537 drones and missiles overnight — the highest number recorded in a single night so far.
The figure includes nonlethal decoy drones designed to confuse Ukrainian air defenses, which Russia has begun using on a mass scale only in the past year, making comparisons with attacks earlier in the war difficult.
Still, the decoys have significant effects. Ukraine’s military is forced to use its limited stockpiles of air defense missiles to counter Russia’s large-scale assaults, which military experts and Ukrainian officials say are aimed at overwhelming Ukraine’s air defense units on the ground. The air defense missiles are the only weapons capable of shooting down incoming missiles.
Ukraine’s air force said about 90 percent of the Russian drones were intercepted, were disabled by electronic jamming, or crashed without causing damage because they were decoys. But it added that only two-thirds of the missiles that Russia fired were shot down, including just one of seven ballistic missiles. These figures could not be independently verified.

Given the current pace of attacks, Russia may exceed 5,000 drone launches this month, which would set a record for the conflict, said Konrad Muzyka, a military analyst at Rochan Consulting in Poland. To support these attacks, Russia has dramatically increased its production of long-range drones.

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1939327987482243482

"Russian forces managed to strike the village of Pishchane, located just outside the city of Sumy, using tubed artillery on 22–23 June. The impact site is less than one kilometer from the city border."

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1939371792495255718

The first confirmed debris of Russia’s Geran-3 jet-powered kamikaze drone has been found. The drone is believed to be based on the Iranian Shahed-238, with production recently launched at Russian domestic facilities.

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1939309307964579897

Footage shows a Shahed drone veering off course and flying in circles after losing signal due to Ukrainian EW — one of the methods used to counter Russian drone attacks.

https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1939359718859809254

President Zelensky has posthumously awarded the title Hero of Ukraine to F-16 pilot Maksym Ustymenko, who was killed last night while repelling a Russian attack.

https://x.com/Archer83Able/status/1939311896332497263

NASA FIRMS detected fires on the territory of the Halychyna Oil Refinery Complex located in the town of Drohobych, Lviv Oblast, western Ukraine, following Russian drone & missile attack last night.

https://x.com/Rebel44CZ/status/1939236500467494913

Looks like Russia might be trying to increase the pathetic rate of production of Tu-160s

"Satellite images obtained by Yle show the expansion of one of the largest aircraft factories in Russia, where all Russian bombers are produced."

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukraine Deploys Full-Size Ground Warrior: Introduces the PROTECTOR Heavy UGV | Defense Express

700 kg payload, 400 km range, and full off-road capability make it a battlefield game-changer

en.defence-ua.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukrainian drone strike on Crimea air base destroys 3 Russian helicopters, SBU claims

Drones operated by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) struck the Kirovske military airfield in occupied Crimea overnight on June 28, the SBU told the Kyiv Independent.

The attack destroyed Mi-8, Mi-26 and Mi-28 attack helicopters, and a Pantsyr-S1 self-propelled anti-aircraft missile and gun system, the SBU claimed.

According to the SBU, Ukraine targeted Russian aviation, air defense systems, as well as ammunition, reconnaissance and attack drones storage facilities.

Russia revives obsolete T-62 tanks amid equipment shortages, Ukraine's intel claims

Russia is returning outdated T-62 tanks to service due to mounting equipment losses in its full-scale war against Ukraine and a shortage of modern military equipment, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) said on June 28.

"The key factors limiting the ability to produce modern armored vehicles in Russia are a lack of industrial capacity and a shortage of imported high-tech components," the agency said.

According to HUR, the restoration of T-62 tanks is primarily carried out at a facility in the village of Atamanovka in Russia's far-eastern Zabaykalsky Krai.

Russia transferred 21 T-62 tanks from its eastern military district to the European part of the country, the intel claimed.

HUR said that Russia’s stockpile of Soviet-era tanks from the 1970s is being depleted, while most T-62s are even in worse condition after decades of open-air storage without maintenance.

Some of these tanks can also be used at the front as stationary firing points to reinforce defensive positions.

"Due to a severe shortage of modern main battle tanks such as the T-90M and T-72B3M, the deployment of T-62s is seen as a temporary but necessary measure," the statement read.

https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1939472324442698218

Stories of undercover operatives who stay behind enemy lines and later fight in special ops units, through some of the war’s toughest battles, are usually found in movies or games. But this isn’t fiction. Here are key points from our interview with Artem "Skhidnyi" Karyakin :
2/ Artem, a native of Donbas, says he witnessed signs of Russian influence long before 2014. In his hometown of Kadiivka (formerly Stakhanov), a mining city in Luhansk Oblast with no historical ties to the Don Cossacks, a so-called “Don Cossack” group appeared in the early 2000s
3/ By 2014, the same “Cossacks” were seizing government buildings in Kadiivka - this time armed and operating under Russian flags. Many weren’t local; they had come from the Russian Federation, as had others who helped take control by force during the spring occupation efforts.
4/ In response, local residents organized rallies, distributed leaflets and stickers. The turning point came in spring 2014, when two schoolboys raised a Ukrainian flag atop a slag heap and were shot at. After that, many pro-Ukrainian residents began to flee the town
5/ Artem chose to stay. In July 2014, while under occupation, he created a Twitter account. What began as an effort to show life in the occupation soon turned riskier: he began posting locations of Russian troops, often including maps showing where equipment was stationed
6/ In the fall of 2014, Artem was contacted via Twitter by Ukrainian intelligence and army contacts, who urged him to stop posting details publicly and share them privately instead. From then on, he secretly tracked Russian troop movements and enemy positions in occupied areas
7/ Over the years, this also came to include information about factories and enterprises under Russian control, the socio-political climate, local sentiment, and data on collaborators - those who had joined the Russian side in combat or taken positions in the security services.
8/ After leaving Donbas in 2021, Artem found himself in Kyiv as the full-scale war began in 2022. He walked to the nearest unit — the TDF and took up a defensive position on the Bucha-Irpin outskirts. By summer, he had joined the 8th Regiment of Special Operations Forces
9/ Artem’s first combat deployment was in August 2022 in Bakhmut, then under heavy assault by Russian forces, including Wagner PMC fighters. Shortly after, he took part in the liberation of Lyman in Donetsk Oblast. His most recent mission brought him to Kursk
10/ The Kursk operation was unique in many ways. It was there he first encountered maneuver warfare - a style he found more challenging than fighting along a clear front line. In Kursk, Artem faced new Russian approach: fiber-optic drones operating up to 10–15 km deep
11/ Another key difference was that, for the 1st time, Artem and his unit were operating as a “foreign army.” He was careful not to mirror the behavior of Russian forces in his own hometown. In Russia, he told civilians they wanted to liberate Ukrainian cities, not to take theirs
12/ Artem’s also said that they faced the forces of two different totalitarian states. Engaging North Korean troops marked another distinction from the battlefield in Ukraine - though in a way, their tactics in Kursk closely resembled those used by Wagner fighters in Bakhmut.
13/ When it comes to Donbas, Artem believes liberation and reintegration are entirely possible - but not easy. Russia created conditions in which nearly every second family in occupied Donbas has lost a relative to the war - direct consequence of the forced mobilization
14/ But it’s important to understand, Artem says, that Donbas, especially the areas occupied since 2014,is a region where civic engagement is weak. People's views and actions are largely shaped by their immediate environment, not by deep-rooted convictions.
15/ Even now, many no longer view Russia in a positive light. After years under the Russian flag, they’ve come to see the reality - that there is little to gain, and the forced sacrifices were not worth it. Artem knows this firsthand; he lived among them for most of his life

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Stories of undercover operatives who stay behind enemy lines and later fight in special ops units, through some of the war’s toughest battles, are usually found in movies or games. But this isn’t fiction. Here are key points from our interview with Artem "Skhidnyi" Karyakin :
2/ Artem, a native of Donbas, says he witnessed signs of Russian influence long before 2014. In his hometown of Kadiivka (formerly Stakhanov), a mining city in Luhansk Oblast with no historical ties to the Don Cossacks, a so-called “Don Cossack” group appeared in the early 2000s
3/ By 2014, the same “Cossacks” were seizing government buildings in Kadiivka - this time armed and operating under Russian flags. Many weren’t local; they had come from the Russian Federation, as had others who helped take control by force during the spring occupation efforts.
4/ In response, local residents organized rallies, distributed leaflets and stickers. The turning point came in spring 2014, when two schoolboys raised a Ukrainian flag atop a slag heap and were shot at. After that, many pro-Ukrainian residents began to flee the town

As a reminder, Russia 100% started this war and preparations for it began long before 2014.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Given the current pace of attacks, Russia may exceed 5,000 drone launches this month, which would set a record for the conflict, said Konrad Muzyka, a military analyst at Rochan Consulting in Poland. To support these attacks, Russia has dramatically increased its production of long-range drones.

Russia is sending 5,000 drones - just drones alone - into Ukraine, each month.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Western sanctions are crushing Putin's shadow fleet of oil tankers. We live-track volumes on 343 shadow fleet ships, most of which are now sanctioned. Activity levels have collapsed in the wake of last month's wave of EU and UK sanctions.

The US government has dropped sanctions relating to nuclear energy, allowing "Certain Transactions Related to Civil Nuclear Energy", and permitting a dozen large previously sanctioned Russian banks - VTB, Alfa, Gazprombank, etc. - to do transactions "related to civil nuclear energy."

Linkage.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

NASA FIRMS detected fires on the territory of the Halychyna Oil Refinery Complex located in the town of Drohobych, Lviv Oblast, western Ukraine, following Russian drone & missile attack last night.

After more than a year of speculation and unofficial commentary, two of Ukraine’s top officials have now publicly confirmed what many analysts long suspected: the United States has asked Ukraine not to strike Russian oil and energy infrastructure.

The first acknowledgment came from President Volodymyr Zelensky following a large-scale Russian missile, drone, and ballistic attack on Ukraine’s energy facilities. Speaking after the attack on Kremenchuk, Zelensky said,

“It happened right after Putin’s conversation with Trump. After the Americans asked us not to strike Russian energy facilities.”​

He described the timing of the Russian assault as “a spit in the face” to global efforts aimed at ending the war.
The statement marked the first direct confirmation from Ukraine’s head of state that the country’s Western allies, particularly the United States, have placed restrictions on targeting Russia’s energy sector—despite the fact that Russia has made Ukrainian energy infrastructure a central focus of its wartime campaign.

Hours later, Ukraine’s First Deputy Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko reinforced the message in a statement of her own. “Some allies have asked us not to strike Russian energy infrastructure—even as Russia wages all-out war on ours: targeting power plants, oil and gas infrastructure, hydroelectric dams—every form of energy we rely upon.”

Kiev Insider. (fixed/edited, thanks for the correction).

As Toews posted above, Russia attacks Ukraine's energy infrastructure at will, but Ukraine has been instructed not to attack Russia, despite the highly successful strikes of the prior fall & winter.

 

[fatness]

Kiev Independent.

I believe that's a link from Kiev Insider, not Kiev Independent.
As for what it's reporting,

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Pentagon halting some promised munitions for Ukraine​

The initial decision to withhold some aid promised during the Biden administration came in early June, according to the people, but is only taking effect now as Ukraine is beating back some of the largest Russian barrages of missiles and drones at civilian targets in Kyiv and elsewhere.

Russia over the weekend launched its biggest aerial attack on Ukraine since the start of the three-year war, with a reported 477 drones and decoys and 60 missiles. Of these, 249 were reportedly shot down and 226 were lost, likely having been electronically jammed.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Ukraine, Russia surrounds Sumy with 50,000 soldiers.​

Russia has deployed 50,000 troops in the area around the city of Sumy, at a ratio of about three to one to Ukrainian forces. The Wall Street Journal writes that Russian troops are now positioned only 19 kilometres from the north-eastern Ukrainian town that has become Moscow's new target.

The Ukrainian town of Sumy, only 20 kilometres from the Russian border, has become the new epicentre of the Kremlin's counter-offensive. After pushing Ukrainian troops out of the Russian region of Kursk, Moscow has concentrated about 50,000 soldiers in the area, tripling the available forces compared to those of Kiev. According to General Oleksandr Syrskiy, supreme commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Russian strategy is clear: 'Flatten us with numbers'.
The front line extended to over 1,200 kilometres and Sumy became one of the critical points. Elite Ukrainian units, such as the Timur group of the Hur special forces, have been deployed in the region, managing to temporarily halt the Russian advance. "We are trying to organise our counter-attacks to repel the enemy," said Timur, commander of the unit. But the battle is tough. "Their numbers are a huge problem, even if they are not enough to overwhelm us completely," explained Kappa, another special forces commander. "They are losing 300-400 men a day in the region, but they can afford it. They keep bringing in reserves'.

To make matters worse, Ukrainian soldiers complain about the lack of adequate defences in the border region. After the chaotic withdrawal from Kursk, many found themselves without modern trenches or air cover. "It looked like they were preparing for a tank attack, not a war of drones and artillery," complained Kyrylo, an infantry commander.

Italian: Il Sole 24 Hrs

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles.

PBS

 

[fatness]

Pentagon halts weapons shipment to Ukraine amid concerns over U.S. stockpile

Hegseth ordered the delay weeks after he issued a memo ordering a review of the U.S. stockpile of munitions, which has been depleted after years of the United States’ sending weapons to Ukraine to defend against the Russia invasion, as well as nearly two years of military operations in the Middle East as the United States fought Houthi rebels in Yemen and defended Israel and allies against Iran, four of the officials said. The munitions and other weapons could be held up until the assessment is complete, the two defense officials and two congressional officials said, and if the munitions are in short supply or needed in other parts of the world, they could be held back even longer.

 

[Chadstroma]

Russia's economy just flashed warning signs about manufacturing and employment

In June, Russia's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index sank to 47.5 — its sharpest pace of contraction since March 2022, according to S&P Global.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Dezbelief]

Ukraine shows footage of Bober drones hitting Russian air defenses, fighter jet in Crimea

The footage shows the combat use of UJ-26 drones, commonly known as Bobers (Beavers), targeting high-value Russian military systems.

kyivindependent.com

Ukraine shows footage of Bober drones hitting Russian air defenses, fighter jet in Crimea

A Ukrainian drone targets and destroys a Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense system in occupied Crimea, according to Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR / Telegram).

Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) released on July 1 video footage showing domestically produced drones striking multiple Russian air defense assets and a fighter jet in occupied Crimea in what it described as a successful special operation.

The undated footage shows the combat use of UJ-26 drones, commonly known as Bober (Beavers), targeting high-value Russian military systems.

"These reliable weapons in the hands of HUR special forces are turning critically important Russian targets into useless scrap," the agency said in a statement.

HUR added that the Bober drones are effectively "gnawing through" Russia's expensive air defense systems "like barberries."

The released footage shows that the strikes destroyed or severely damaged several Russian military assets, including a Pantsir-S1 air defense system and its crew, a Niobium-SV radar, a Pechora-3 coastal radar, a Protivnik-GE radar, and a Su-30 fighter jet stationed at the Saky airfield in occupied Crimea.

The Kyiv Independent could not verify HUR's claims.

The strikes are part of Ukraine's ongoing efforts to degrade Russian military capabilities in Crimea, which has been under Russian occupation since 2014. Moscow reported Ukrainian drone strikes against the peninsula earlier on July 1, with the Crimean Wind Telegram channel reporting attacks in the vicinity of S-300/S-400 air defense systems.

Ukraine has increasingly deployed new drone systems to target Russian military assets on the front line and deep inside the Russian rear.

 

[Dezbelief]

Three killed in Ukrainian drone attack on central Russia

The attack on a factory in the city of Izhevsk was more than 1,000km (620 miles) from the border.

www.bbc.com

Three people have been killed and 45 injured following an attack by Ukraine on a factory in the city of Izhevsk - more than 1,000km (620 miles) from the border - Russian authorities say.

Of those injured six had suffered serious injuries, the governor of Udmurtia Aleksandr Brechalov said, adding he had briefed President Vladimir Putin on the attack. A state of emergency was later declared in the region.

Drones reportedly targeted the Kupol Electromechanical Plant - a military factory which is said to produce Tor surface-to-air missile systems and radar stations.

The plant also specialises in the production of Osa air defence systems and has developed drones, according to Ukrainian media.

Ukrainian official confirmed to BBC Ukraine that two long-range drones operated by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) struck the Kupol plant from a distance of around 1,300 km (807 miles).

"Each such special operation reduces the enemy's offensive potential, disrupts military production chains and demonstrates that even deep in Russia's rear, there are no safe zones for its military infrastructure," the source said in comments reported by Ukrainian media.

A video posted on social media and verified by the BBC showed an explosion on the roof of a building, followed by a large plume of black smoke rising over a factory-type chimney.

Russia's civil aviation regulator Rosaviatsia imposed restrictions on operations at Izhevsk airport, before lifting them a few hours later.

This is second Ukrainian drone attack on the Kupol factory since November - although that strike had not resulted in any casualties.

For its part, Moscow continues to carry out attacks in Ukraine. At the weekend Russia launched a record 537 drones and missiles on various locations across the country, including Kyiv and the western city of Lviv.

On Monday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky granted the Hero of Ukraine award posthumously to an F-16 pilot, Lieutenant Colonel Maksym Ustymenko, who was killed while trying to repel the aerial attack.

In a separate development on Tuesday, President Putin and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron held their first phone talks in more than two years.

Macron "emphasised France's unwavering support for Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity", said a statement from his office.

The French leader also called for a ceasefire and negotiations between Ukraine and Russia "for a solid and lasting settlement of the conflict", the French statement said.

Meanwhile, a Kremlin statement said that Putin "reminded that the Ukrainian conflict is a direct consequence of the policy of Western states, who for many years ignored Russia's security interests".

Any peace settlement must be "comprehensive and long-term" and should eliminate "the root causes of the Ukrainian crisis and be based on new territorial realities", the Russian statement said.

Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and Moscow currently controls about 20% of Ukrainian territory, including the southern Crimea peninsula annexed in 2014.

On the battlefield, while Russia's advance on the Sumy region seems to have stalled, Moscow appears to be targeting the eastern Dnipropetrovsk region. Unconfirmed reports in Russian media suggested Moscow's forces took control of the first village in the region.

Two rounds of talks aimed at agreeing a ceasefire between Kyiv and Moscow have taken place at the behest of Donald Trump since May, but have failed to produce tangible results.

Last week, Putin said Russia was ready to hold a new round of peace negotiations although he said that the Russian and Ukrainian peace proposals were "absolutely contradictory".

On Monday, Zelensky again expressed scepticism of Putin's intentions. "Putin has already stolen practically half a year from diplomacy... on top of the entire duration of this war," the Ukrainian leader said.

"Russia is not changing its plans and is not looking for a way out of this war. On the contrary, they are preparing for new operations, including on the territory of European countries."

US senior envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg echoed this on Monday, when he wrote on X that Russia could not "continue to stall for time while it bombs civilian targets in Ukraine".

Moscow swiftly pushed back, saying it was not "interested in stalling anything" and thanking the US for its support.

 

[fatness]

Lawmakers of varying political stripes called the holdup of weapons approved during the Biden administration a breach of Trump’s renewed commitment to Kyiv at last week’s NATO summit, where the president floated selling Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine. POLITICO first reported the news on Tuesday, and since then, Kyiv has summoned a U.S. diplomat to explain the hold.

“If you want to get him to the negotiating table in good faith, you have to put leverage and pressure on him, and that would be Lindsey Graham's economic sanctions and the flow of weapons,” McCaul said. “If you take the flow of weapons out, yeah, then you're not, you don't have the leverage over Putin to negotiate.”

https://www.yahoo.com/news/republicans-tear-pentagon-ukraine-weapons-154550197.html

 

[Chadstroma]

Tensions are rising between Russia and Azerbaijan. Why is this happening now?

A rift has developed between Russia and Azerbaijan, which have had long political, economic and cultural ties.

apnews.com

 

[Chadstroma]

Returning Tank Production to Soviet Era Levels: Russia Will Soon Be Building Over 3000 T-80s and T-90s Per Year

The Russian defence sector is on track to further significantly expand production of main battle tanks to reach a landmark output of 1,000 new tanks by mid-2028, and a

militarywatchmagazine.com

 

[Chadstroma]

'A powerful secondary explosion' — Ukrainian drones destroy Russian ammunition depot in Donetsk Oblast, SBU says

Unconfirmed videos posted to social media show a fire already burning followed by a large explosion and shockwave.

kyivindependent.com

 

[Chadstroma]

Satellite Images Confirm Destruction of Helicopters and Air Defenses at Kirovske Air Base - Militarnyi

Satellite images have confirmed damage to aircraft and air defense systems following a recent Security Service of Ukraine attack on the Kirovske military air base in temporarily occupied Crimea.

militarnyi.com

 

[Chadstroma]

Latvia to Send 42 Patria Vehicles to Ukraine

The Patria 6x6 can carry up to 10 troops, is equipped with a mortar system, and is capable of conducting amphibious missions.

www.kyivpost.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russian navy deputy killed in Ukrainian strike

The deputy head of the Kremlin’s navy has been killed in a Ukrainian attack in western Russia, it has been confirmed.
Major General Mikhail Gudkov, who also led a notorious Russian brigade accused of war crimes, is thought to have died when Ukrainian missiles hit a military base in the Kursk border region.
He is one of the most senior Russian military officers to have been killed by Ukraine since the start of Moscow’s full-scale invasion in 2022.
His death was confirmed by Oleg Kozhemyako, the governor of the Primorsky Krai region in Russia’s far east, where Gudkov’s 155th Marine Brigade was based. He said that Gudkov had died while “carrying out his duty as an officer”.
Ten other servicemen are also said to have died in the attack, which took place in the town of Korenevo, just over ten miles from the border with Ukraine. Kyiv’s forces are said to have used US-supplied Himars missiles to attack the base.
Gudkov, who was awarded the prestigious Hero of Russia award in 2023, was named Russia’s deputy naval chief by President Putin only in March. He had previously taken part in Russia’s military campaign in Syria.
Unconfirmed reports said Russian troops may have inadvertently revealed Gudkov’s position after breaking radio silence to congratulate Vladivostok, the capital of the Primorsky Krai region, on its City Day on Wednesday.
The 155th Marine Brigade was one of the Russian military units that was forced to retreat after suffering heavy losses during the Kremlin’s failed attempt to seize Kyiv in February 2022. Loathed by Ukrainian troops, the brigade has been linked to atrocities against civilians in Bucha, the town near Kyiv where hundreds of unarmed residents were murdered by Putin’s forces.
It has also been accused of decapitating Ukrainian soldiers and putting at least one of their heads on a spike after Kyiv’s forces staged an incursion into Russia’s Belgorod region last year. The brigade is said to have murdered nine Ukrainian drone operators after making them strip and lie on the ground.

Russia grooms Ukrainian teens as spies and saboteurs

Beyond the traditional theatre of war, senior officials in Kyiv told the Financial Times they are seeing the systematic grooming of teenagers and young adults, including those orphaned and displaced by the fighting, struggling financially or merely eager to score enough cash for a new iPhone.
The officials described Moscow’s actions as turning Ukraine’s adolescents into weapons of war against their own.
“The enemy is aggressive, committing various crimes against national security, including recruiting agents from among our own citizens,” said SBU head Lt Gen Vasyl Malyuk.
Russia’s foreign ministry did not respond to a request for comment.
SBU spokesperson Artem Dekhtiarenko told the FT that, since spring last year, the agency had arrested more than 700 people implicated in espionage, arson and bomb plots orchestrated remotely by Russian intelligence agents. Of those, around 175 — or some 25 per cent — were under the age of 18.

Most of the recruits carried out their missions wittingly, but some did so unwittingly after being duped, the SBU spokesperson said.
“Underage people cannot foresee the consequences of their actions,” making them especially vulnerable to Russian recruitment, Dekhtiarenko said.
The consequences have been serious, even deadly. Russia’s campaign “started last spring with tasks of burning cars [and] electricity hubs along the railway”, he said. Then they “upgraded their strategy and started burning military recruitment centres”. Earlier this year, he said, “they switched to using Ukrainians as suicide bombers”.
The problem has grown to such a scale that Ukrainian authorities have launched a nationwide awareness campaign: warnings are sent in mass text messages; plastered on billboards alongside highways; and shown on repeat on passenger trains. A video targeting teenagers to raise awareness of the matter teaches them “how not to fall into a trap and stay one step ahead” of the FSB.
SBU agents have also been invited to schools to teach children how to spot Russian efforts to groom them. The campaign slogan aims to flip the script on Moscow: “Don’t burn your own! Burn the enemy!”
By the end of May around 50 Ukrainian minors had reported attempts to bribe them on messenger apps, according to Ukraine’s juvenile police, which is involved in the awareness campaign.

Video: https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1940766800289190292

Ukrainian heavy drones launched from the marine drones bombard Russian radar systems in Crimea!

Strikes were carried out on the components of the Russian "Nebo-M" radar system:
•RLM-M 55Zh6M "Nebo-M"
•RLM-D 55Zh6M "Nebo-M"
•Radar Command Post (KU RLS) 55Zh6M "Nebo-M"

Video: https://x.com/RALee85/status/1940788898386280645

Videos from the past two weeks of Russian Shahed strikes in Sumy and Donetsk oblast. 3/

https://x.com/ChristopherJM/status/1940764187262964161

Appears perhaps the long arm of the Ukrainian intel agencies may have reached the Kremlin-imposed puppet mayor of Luhansk Manolis Pilavov, who according to Russian state media was killed in an explosion in the eastern occupied city's center today.

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1940716745280442666

The SBU says it detained a major in the Ukrainian Air Force who was allegedly working as a Russian agent tasked with providing information about military aviation. He was recruited by his ex-wife who lives in Melitopol, and his actions were coordinated by a member of the Russian FSB's Alfa unit.

https://x.com/Black_BirdGroup/status/1940680189962588575

Russian advance slowed down in June.

According to our data, over the month of June, the Russian Armed Forced captured 423 square kilometers of Ukraine. This is down from 538 square kilometers captured in May.

Russian pace of advance is currently similar to late summer 2024.

Russia's oil and gas budget revenue falls by a third year-on-year in June

Russia's oil and gas revenue fell 33.7% year-on-year in June to 494.8 billion roubles ($6.29 billion), its lowest since January 2023, finance ministry data showed on Thursday, amid weak oil prices and a strengthening rouble.

In addition to dropping by a third year-on-year, revenue also fell by 3.5% from May.
For the first half of the year, the revenue declined by almost 17% from the same period a year before, to 4.73 trillion roubles.

The finance ministry had initially planned to earn 10.94 trillion roubles from oil and gas sales this year, but due to falling oil prices it revised that expectation down to 8.32 trillion roubles.
Oil and gas revenue reached 11.13 trillion roubles last year.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Mothers with strollers and children in Kyiv run for shelter as local authorities have announced 25 drones incoming.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Putin tells Trump Russia won't back down from its war aims in Ukraine​

During a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump on July 3, Russian President Vladimir Putin said "Russia will continue to pursue its goals" in the war against Ukraine, Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov said.

The hour-long conversation between the two presidents focused on Russia's war in Ukraine and the situation in the Middle East, according to Ushakov.

"Trump once again emphasized the need to end military hostilities as soon as possible. Vladimir Putin noted that Russia continues to seek a political negotiated solution to the conflict," Ushakov said.

"Our president said that Russia will pursue its goals, specifically addressing the root causes that led to the current situation, and will not back down from these objectives."

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

The Kremlin aide added that the two leaders discussed cultural diplomacy, specifically the exchange of films promoting what Ushakov described as "traditional values close to Russia and the U.S. presidential administration."

Putin's message came amid a surge of Russian drone and missile attacks across Ukraine that have killed and injured hundreds of civilians in recent weeks.

Kyiv Independent

 

[fatness]

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/03/us/politics/trump-putin-call-ukraine-iran.html

President Trump said on Thursday that a phone call with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia had not resulted in any movement toward ending the war in Ukraine, adding that he was “not happy” with the conflict grinding on. “I didn’t make any progress with him at all,” Mr. Trump told reporters. The apparent impasse came during a roughly hourlong conversation between the leaders on Thursday morning — the sixth known call between the two since Mr. Trump returned to office in January — that both sides said covered a wide range of issues, including Iran.

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