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*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (6 Viewers)

[icon] said:
Chadstroma said:
militarywatchmagazine.com

Returning Tank Production to Soviet Era Levels: Russia Will Soon Be Building Over 3000 T-80s and T-90s Per Year

The Russian defence sector is on track to further significantly expand production of main battle tanks to reach a landmark output of 1,000 new tanks by mid-2028, and a
militarywatchmagazine.com militarywatchmagazine.com
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Good thing our pantshitter in chief is cutting sanctions
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Delete this please. We don't want this thread to get shut down. Thanks in advance.
 
Friday's attacks were the latest in a string of major Russian air strikes on Ukraine that have intensified in recent weeks as ceasefire talks have largely stalled. War in Ukraine has been raging for more than three years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. Following his conversation with Putin on Thursday, Trump said that "no progress" to end the fighting had been made. "I'm very disappointed with the conversation I had today with President Putin, because I don't think he's there, and I'm very disappointed," Trump said. "I'm just saying I don't think he's looking to stop, and that's too bad." The Kremlin reiterated that it would continue to seek to remove "the root causes of the war in Ukraine". Putin has sought to return Ukraine to Russia's sphere of influence and said last week that "the whole of Ukraine is ours".
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Kyiv hit by barrage of drone strikes as Putin rejects Trump's truce bid
 
Trump, Zelenskiy discuss weapons and escalating Russian strikes

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he discussed air defences in a conversation with U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday, and agreed to work on increasing Kyiv's capability to "defend the sky" as Russian attacks escalate. He added in a message on Telegram that he discussed joint defence production, as well as joint purchases and investments with the U.S. leader.
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One source briefed on the call told Reuters they were optimistic that supplies of Patriot missiles could resume after what they called a "very good" conversation between the presidents. U.S. outlet Axios reported, citing unnamed sources, that the call lasted around 40 minutes, and that Trump told Zelenskiy he would check what U.S. weapons due to be sent to Ukraine, if any, had been put on hold. Zelenskiy, speaking later in his nightly video address, said he and Trump had agreed to "arrange a meeting between our teams to strengthen air defences. "We had a very detailed discussion on joint production. We need it, America needs it."
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If I remember correctly, this happened one or two times before ---- a scheduled meeting or call between Trump and Putin, a cutback in US aid to Ukraine before the meeting/call, no positive results from Putin in meeting/call, then resumption of US aid to Ukraine.
 
This is supposedly the third time that US aid to Ukraine was suspended by the Department of Defense without anyone else in government knowing about it.

The Defense Department held up a shipment of U.S. weapons for Ukraine this week over what officials said were concerns about its low stockpiles. But an analysis by senior military officers found that the aid package would not jeopardize the American military’s own ammunition supplies, according to three U.S. officials. The move to halt the weapons shipment blindsided the State Department, members of Congress, officials in Kyiv and European allies, according to multiple sources with knowledge of the matter. Critics of the decision included Republicans and Democrats who support aiding Ukraine’s fight against Russia.
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Suspending the shipment of military aid to Ukraine was a unilateral step by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, according to three congressional aides and a former U.S. official familiar with the matter. It was the third time Hegseth on his own has stopped shipments of aid to Ukraine, the sources said. In the two previous cases, in February and in May, his actions were reversed days later.
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Putin Plots Summer of Relentless Attacks on Ukraine

Germany is in “intensive discussions” with the U.S. about procuring additional Patriots for Ukraine, a government spokesman said Friday, including possibly buying a system from the U.S. But production bottlenecks could impede that effort, another official said.
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Russia has massed around 50,000 troops in Ukraine’s northern Sumy province, advancing to around 12 miles from the regional capital, a new target for Moscow. Russia has roughly three soldiers for every one Ukrainian fighting there, according to Ukrainian troops.

Ukraine has managed to halt the Russian advance for now, but the offensive has further stretched Ukraine’s meager forces, which are suffering from manpower shortages. Russia is pressing at several spots along the 750-mile front lines, arcing from the northeast to the south, forcing Ukrainian commanders to send some of their best units to plug gaps.
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'There will be 1,000 units per day' — Ukrainian commander warns of increased Russian Shahed drone attacks

The commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces warned on July 4 that Russian Shahed drone strikes could escalate to 1,000 per day, prompting Ukraine to consider relocating drone production.

"Under the pressure of increasing mass use by the enemy of a cheap, but everywhere accessible Shahed... There will be 1,000 units (launched) per day and more," Robert "Magyar" Brovdi said in a social media post.

Russia regularly targets Ukrainian cities with Iranian-designed Shahed drones. On the night of July 4, it launched drones and ballistic missiles at Kyiv, injuring at least 26 people and killing one. President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia had launched a record 550 drones and missiles during the seven-hour barrage.

"I am not scaring anyone," Brovdi added, saying his warning is based on intelligence analysis.
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Russia intensifying use of chemical weapons in Ukraine, Dutch intelligence reports

Russia is escalating the use of chemical weapons against Ukrainian forces, the Netherlands Military Intelligence (MIVD) reported on July 4.

Russian troops use banned chemical agents as psychological warfare to panic Ukrainian forces, forcing soldiers from dugouts and trenches with gas grenades dropped by drones, making them easy targets for subsequent drone or artillery attacks.

According to MIVD report, it was previously known that Russia used tear gas, but now intelligence has confirmed the use of chloropicrin — a substance that can kill in high concentrations in enclosed spaces.

Use of chloropicrin, banned under international law, was discovered by the Netherlands Military Intelligence and Security Service (MIVD) and General Intelligence and Security Service (AIVD) together with the German foreign intelligence service BND.
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New data on Russian recruitment: Around 200,000 men signed a contract in the first half of 2025. Dmitry Medvedev claims the number is 210,000 - my latest estimated based on regional budget data indicates 191,000.
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When people ask how to counter fiber optic FPV drones, which are mostly resistant to electronic warfare, one answer is the use of nets over roads. It's far from a foolproof solution, but it saves lives every day.

Similar solutions are also being deployed at frontline positions
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For many in developing countries, Russia offers a chance to earn blood money they might never otherwise see. Hundreds of Cubans have taken that path, and our team Frontelligence Insight used them as a case study to find out how many foreigners are now fighting for Russia.🧵Thread

2/ In 2023, a major data leak exposed records of hundreds of Cuban mercenaries, later investigated by @InformNapalm. We analyzed 176 personal files and found that most recruits were between 30 and 39 years old, followed by those aged 40 to 49 - with a few even over 60.
3/ With their full names in hand, tracing their whereabouts on Russian social media was relatively easy. One mercenary in particular, Enriquez Linares Livan Michel, proved especially useful. His social media profile contained both photographs and geodata.

4/ Several of the geotagged images labeled “Krym” actually led us to the Slobodka training grounds near Tula, used by the 106th Guards Airborne Division. The presence of Cuban recruits at this location had previously been confirmed by another investigative group - @cxemu
5/ For verification, we tracked another Cuban mercenary who posted photos in 2024 under the name Luis Darien and geolocated him in the same spot as well - on the premises used by the 1060th Separate Logistics Support Battalion of the 106th Airborne Division.
6/ Satellite imagery from May 2025 shows visible vehicle tracks and signs of grass fires at both the shooting range and vehicle training area - typical indicators of training exercises. That said, we cannot confirm whether any Cubans remain there in 2025
7/ Under standard contracts, Cubans were promised a 195,000‑ruble signing bonus, monthly pay of 204,000 rubles in the active combat zone, injury compensation up to 1,000,000 rubles, and 2,000,000 rubles for death benefits. Contracts explicitly mention "special military operation"
8/ While our team cautiously estimates that just over 500 Cubans and a similar number of Serbs have attempted to enlist in 2023 and 2024, pinpointing exact figures for each nationality is difficult. That said, drawing on two key data points, we can offer a range
9/ One key reference comes from an investigation by iStories. In April 2025, using data from a hacked Unified Medical (EMIAS) database, iStories analyzed and identified more than 1,500 foreign citizens who went through Moscow recruitment center for contract military service
10/ A second reference comes from internal personnel documents from several Russian brigades and regiments. Although these records give only a partial view, given the unknown distribution of mercenaries across units, they still help approximate the overall scale
11/ Documents showed only a small number of foreign fighters, often less than a platoon. This suggests the overall count is far lower than some media claims. If there were truly 5,000 Cubans or 15,000 Nepalese, as CNN reported, their presence would be far more visible
12/ After approximating the total number of brigades and regiments, estimating the average number of foreign fighters per unit, accounting for higher concentrations in airborne divisions, and subtracting losses since 2023, we arrived at a range of 4660 - 8000 foreign mercenaries
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'It's Groundhog Day': Ukraine's sky defenders stuck in relentless battle

As the evening light ebbed away a handful of Ukrainian troops emerged from the treeline to face an unequal fight. Their mission – to shoot down 21st Century killer drones with weapons designed in the dying days of World War One.

In Ukraine's north-eastern region of Sumy, bordering Russia, this is a nightly battle.

Just after we joined the troops, there was danger in the skies, and tension and adrenaline on the ground.

The commander – codenamed Jaeger – was glued to a screen showing clusters of red dots, each indicating an Iranian-designed Shahed drone, one of Russia's key weapons. By early evening, there were already 30 in the skies over Sumy, and the neighbouring region of Chernihiv.

Two flatbed trucks were driven out into a clearing – on the back of each a heavy machine gun and a gunner, scanning the skies. The trucks were flanked by troops, light machine guns at the ready.

We could hear the whirring of the propellers before we could see the drone - barely visible as it sliced through the sky. The troops opened fire - all guns blazing in unison – but the drone disappeared into the distance. These low-cost long-range weapons are terrorising Ukraine.

As often in war, there were flashes of humour. "You'll know when the next drone is coming, when that short guy gets nervous," said Jaeger, pointing at one of his team.
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As darkness closed in, the drones kept coming and the troops kept trying – sending tracer fire streaking across the sky. But how do they feel when these suicide drones get through?

"Well, it's not very good, "Jaeger says sombrely, glancing away. "You feel a slight sadness but to be honest - as you have seen - you don't have time for emotions. One comes in and another can come right behind it. You work in this rhythm. If it's taken down - good, if not, you know there are other teams behind you who will also engage it."

He and his men are a "mobile fire unit" from Ukraine's 117 Territorial Defence Brigade – all locals trying to defend not just their hometown but their country. Most Russian drones fly through this region and deeper into Ukraine.

"They come in massive waves, often flying at different altitudes," says Jaeger. "When there is heavy cloud cover, they fly above the clouds, and we can't see them. And it's very hard to detect them when it's raining."

A hundred Shahed drones a night is standard for Sumy.

His unit includes a farmer ("now I do something else in the fields," he jokes) and a builder. Jaeger himself is a former forest ranger, and mixed martial arts fighter.

Now he fights an enemy he can barely see.

"It's the same thing every single day, over and over again," he says. "For us, it's just like Groundhog Day."

"The worst thing is that years are passing by," adds Kurban, the builder, "and we have no idea how long all this is going to last".
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Ukraine says it hit Russian military airfield

Ukraine's special forces struck Russia's Borisoglebsk military airfield in the Voronezh region on Saturday, hitting a glide bomb store and a trainer aircraft, the Ukrainian military said in a statement on social media.
The military said that other aircraft were also likely hit, without giving details.
"This airfield is the home base of enemy Su-34, Su-35S and Su-30SM aircraft," the statement said.
The governor of Voronezh, Alexander Gusev, wrote on Telegram that more than 25 drones were destroyed over the region overnight. He said a power line was temporarily damaged, but made no mention of a military airfield.
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Russia attacked Kharkiv region with a Shahed drone carrying fragmentation munitions that kept exploding for up to 20 hours. EOD teams say the elements detonated one by one every few hours, with the last going off nearly a day after impact.
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The Russian Ministry of Defence has confirmed that Major General Mikhail Gudkov was killed on 02 July 2025 in the Kursk oblast in western Russia. Gudkov, appointed as a Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy on 28 March 2025, was killed in a Ukrainian strike on a Russian command post. It is likely Gudkov was directing marine infantry units attempting to establish a buffer zone in the Ukrainian oblast of Sumy. Russia’s advances in Sumy have slowed due to Ukrainian counterattacks and significant Russian losses.
Gudkov was the former commander of the Russian Pacific Fleet's 155th Marine Infantry. Gudkov is reportedly the second senior Russian general to be killed in 2025, the fifth general killed in the last 12 months, and the sixteenth Russian general killed since Russia launched its illegal, full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The loss of so many high-ranking officers is likely to have had the effect of undermining command and control in parts of the Russian Armed Forces.
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Russia to deploy Laotian troops for demining in Kursk region, Ukrainian intel reports

The Kremlin is trying to draw another country into its war against Ukraine — this time, Laos, according to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense on Telegram.

In addition to the large-scale involvement of mercenaries from African and Asian countries, as well as units from North Korea, the Kremlin is exploring the possibility of involving so-called partners in the war under the guise of humanitarian projects in Russian regions bordering Ukraine.

According to Ukrainian intelligence, Laos is the latest country that Russia is attempting to involve in the war.

"At present, the Kremlin is organizing the involvement of a combined engineering unit from the Lao People’s Army to conduct demining operations in Russia’s Kursk region," Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR) reported.

At the initial stage, the authorities of Laos have expressed readiness to send up to 50 so-called "military sappers" to Russia to assist with demining in the Kursk region. In addition, Laos is providing Russia with free assistance for the rehabilitation of wounded soldiers.

"Russia, under the guise of humanitarian rhetoric, is attempting to legitimize the presence of a foreign military contingent on its territory, effectively using it to support combat operations against Ukraine," the statement said.
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Trump says Ukraine will need Patriot missiles for its defense, chides Putin

U.S. President Donald Trump said Ukraine would need Patriot missiles for its defenses, after speaking with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Friday, and voiced frustration over Russian President Vladimir Putin's failure to end the fighting. Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that he had a good call with Zelenskiy, repeating that he was "very unhappy" about his call with Putin a day earlier, given what he called the Russian leader's refusal to work on a ceasefire.
Asked whether the United States would agree to supply more Patriot missiles to Ukraine, as requested by Zelenskiy, Trump said: "They're going to need them for defense... They're going to need something because they're being hit pretty hard." Trump touted the efficacy of the Patriot missiles, calling the weapon "pretty amazing." Asked about the prospects for a ceasefire, Trump said, "It’s a very tough situation... I was very unhappy with my call with President Putin. He wants to go all the way, just keep killing people - it’s no good."
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Don't Toews Me said:
Russia to deploy Laotian troops for demining in Kursk region, Ukrainian intel reports

The Kremlin is trying to draw another country into its war against Ukraine — this time, Laos, according to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense on Telegram.

In addition to the large-scale involvement of mercenaries from African and Asian countries, as well as units from North Korea, the Kremlin is exploring the possibility of involving so-called partners in the war under the guise of humanitarian projects in Russian regions bordering Ukraine.

According to Ukrainian intelligence, Laos is the latest country that Russia is attempting to involve in the war.

"At present, the Kremlin is organizing the involvement of a combined engineering unit from the Lao People’s Army to conduct demining operations in Russia’s Kursk region," Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR) reported.

At the initial stage, the authorities of Laos have expressed readiness to send up to 50 so-called "military sappers" to Russia to assist with demining in the Kursk region. In addition, Laos is providing Russia with free assistance for the rehabilitation of wounded soldiers.

"Russia, under the guise of humanitarian rhetoric, is attempting to legitimize the presence of a foreign military contingent on its territory, effectively using it to support combat operations against Ukraine," the statement said.
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Just highlighting some of these. Laos has joined the war on Russia's side.
 
Don't Toews Me said:
'It's Groundhog Day': Ukraine's sky defenders stuck in relentless battle

As the evening light ebbed away a handful of Ukrainian troops emerged from the treeline to face an unequal fight. Their mission – to shoot down 21st Century killer drones with weapons designed in the dying days of World War One.

In Ukraine's north-eastern region of Sumy, bordering Russia, this is a nightly battle.

Just after we joined the troops, there was danger in the skies, and tension and adrenaline on the ground.

The commander – codenamed Jaeger – was glued to a screen showing clusters of red dots, each indicating an Iranian-designed Shahed drone, one of Russia's key weapons. By early evening, there were already 30 in the skies over Sumy, and the neighbouring region of Chernihiv.

Two flatbed trucks were driven out into a clearing – on the back of each a heavy machine gun and a gunner, scanning the skies. The trucks were flanked by troops, light machine guns at the ready.

We could hear the whirring of the propellers before we could see the drone - barely visible as it sliced through the sky. The troops opened fire - all guns blazing in unison – but the drone disappeared into the distance. These low-cost long-range weapons are terrorising Ukraine.

As often in war, there were flashes of humour. "You'll know when the next drone is coming, when that short guy gets nervous," said Jaeger, pointing at one of his team.
Click to expand...

As darkness closed in, the drones kept coming and the troops kept trying – sending tracer fire streaking across the sky. But how do they feel when these suicide drones get through?

"Well, it's not very good, "Jaeger says sombrely, glancing away. "You feel a slight sadness but to be honest - as you have seen - you don't have time for emotions. One comes in and another can come right behind it. You work in this rhythm. If it's taken down - good, if not, you know there are other teams behind you who will also engage it."

He and his men are a "mobile fire unit" from Ukraine's 117 Territorial Defence Brigade – all locals trying to defend not just their hometown but their country. Most Russian drones fly through this region and deeper into Ukraine.

"They come in massive waves, often flying at different altitudes," says Jaeger. "When there is heavy cloud cover, they fly above the clouds, and we can't see them. And it's very hard to detect them when it's raining."

A hundred Shahed drones a night is standard for Sumy.

His unit includes a farmer ("now I do something else in the fields," he jokes) and a builder. Jaeger himself is a former forest ranger, and mixed martial arts fighter.

Now he fights an enemy he can barely see.

"It's the same thing every single day, over and over again," he says. "For us, it's just like Groundhog Day."

"The worst thing is that years are passing by," adds Kurban, the builder, "and we have no idea how long all this is going to last".
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I saw this piece and IMO it ties in:

On July 4th, Putin ordered the largest attack of the war. The Kyiv Independent reported 550 aerial weapon, including 330 Iranian-type Shaheed drones and multiple missiles that injured at least 23 people. June was also a record month with 5000 Russian drone attacks, the highest since the war began.

Civilian deaths are rising, too. 37% higher than a year ago with 968 civilians killed and 4,807 injured according to the United Nations Human Rights office.

Another rising indicator, the sophistication of the weapons. On this high-tech battlefield, there’s a race for innovation. Russia dramatically increases production of long-range drones controlled by computer far from the battlefield. Ukraine’s Minister of Digital Transformation announces the development of a new kind of ammunition, with a specialized warhead, to destroy them.

Another innovation: Ukraine has a plan to pay civilian volunteers up to $2,400 a month to track and shoot down Russian drones. The program “aims to strengthen air defense,” according to Taras Melynchuk, who wrote about the program on Telegram, a response to waves of drones pounding Ukrainian cities.

The innovation is simply this: for the first time in this war, civilian drone killers will be paid for their service.

Since the early days of this conflict, teams of Ukrainian volunteers have been spending sleepless nights, juggling day jobs as university professors, salesmen, even opera singers, to try to repel the Russian weapon that kills the most Ukrainian civilians

“I am a judge and almost everyone from my squad is a judge, “explains Anton, who gives only his first name for security reasons. He is part of a team of judges who change out of black legal robes and don green military uniforms for the twelve-hour shift on the banks of the Dnipro River, the flight path of the low flying Russian drones that target the capital.

Judges can’t be mobilized – because the court must work even during the war, he says. So, this squad volunteered in the early days of the war.

“We have a Supreme Court judge, and our commander is a Constitutional Court judge, so he can cancel my decisions,” he says with a sly smile, ‘but here, everyone is equal.”

They built the platform for a machine gun and a cannon, they constructed the sleeping quarters, too.” We spend our own money; the government does not spend a penny for that. They only gave us the guns and the bullets because we can’t buy them at the mall.”

The weapons are outdated, says Anton as he shrugs when reading off the dates of production stamped on the barrels of the machine gun. “1945, 1930, 1930,” he says, “they are older than my grandma, but they still work. It’s the cheapest way to strike down the drones.”

The high-tech addition to these old weapons is up-to-date computer tablets, – “a signal comes to the tablet, we can see a white silhouette of the drone.’” The engine glows in red.

On a heavy night, the machine gun gets so hot you can boil an egg on the barrel, and it takes buckets of water to cool it down, he says, “It’s like the engine for a car.”
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Deb Amos Substack
 
fatness said:
Russia launches largest missile and drone barrage on Kyiv since war in Ukraine began

The seven-hour bombardment of Kyiv caused severe damage across multiple districts of the capital in a seven-hour onslaught, authorities said. Blasts lit up the night sky and echoed across the city as air raid sirens wailed. The blue lights of emergency vehicles reflected off high-rise buildings, and debris blocked city streets. “It was a harsh, sleepless night,” Zelenskyy said.
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...The seven-hour bombardment of Kyiv caused severe damage across multiple districts of the capital in a seven-hour onslaught, authorities said. Blasts lit up the night sky and echoed across the city as air raid sirens wailed. The blue lights of emergency vehicles reflected off high-rise buildings, and debris blocked city streets.
...Russia has been stepping up its long-range attacks on Ukrainian cities. Less than a week ago, Russia launched what was then the largest aerial assault of the war. That strategy has coincided with a concerted Russian effort to break through parts of the roughly 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) front line, where Ukrainian troops are under severe pressure.
Russia launched 550 drones and missiles across Ukraine during the night, the country’s air force said. The majority were Shahed drones, but Russia also launched 11 missiles in the attack.
...The attack on Kyiv began the same day a phone call took place between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. ...
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Ukraine signs agreements with US and Denmark on joint production of weapons and drones

​

Ukraine has signed an agreement with an American company to manufacture drones, and an agreement with Denmark on the first joint production of weapons for Ukraine abroad.

Source: President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy's statement

Quote from Volodymyr Zelenskyy: "This week, we’ve signed an agreement with an American company on the production of drones, as well as an agreement with Denmark on the first joint production of weapons for Ukraine abroad."

Details: Zelenskyy thanked partners for supporting the Ukrainian defence industry and the development of its own defence industry.

Quote from Volodymyr Zelenskyy: "We are scaling up joint production of weapons with our partners: long-range weapons to temper Russia's desire to kill and interceptor drones to protect our people."

Background: On 25 June, the Danish government announced that it would build a Ukrainian weapons production plant on its own territory.
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Powerful Ukrainian strike hits Borisoglebsk air base, base of Russia’s Su-34 and Su-35S jets​


On July 5, Ukrainian Special Operations Forces, working alongside other units of the country’s defense forces, carried out a powerful strike on the Borisoglebsk air base in Russia’s Voronezh Oblast. Military sources identify this air base as a host for some of Russia’s most advanced fighter aircraft, including the Su-34, Su-35S, and Su-30SM jets.

Daring Ukrainian Special Forces Strike Hits Borisoglebsk Air Base​

According to official sources from the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the country’s Special Operations Forces, the attack targeted critical components of the air base infrastructure. Among the assets reportedly hit were a stockpile of guided aerial bombs, a military training aircraft, and possibly other combat aircraft.

Military experts consider the air base at Borisoglebsk a significant location for Russia’s aerial operations. The Su-34 offers long-range strike capabilities, while the Su-35S and Su-30SM serve as advanced multi-role fighters. Damaging these aircraft and their associated support equipment could impact air operations in the region.

The Ukrainian military emphasized that they aimed the strike at reducing Russia’s ability to carry out attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. However, officials are still confirming the full extent of the damage. The Ukrainian authorities are currently gathering further intelligence and evidence from the area.

Key Targets Damaged in the Strike​

The main highlight of the attack was the destruction of a stockpile of guided aerial bombs. These bombs are typically used by fighter jets for precision strikes. Hitting such a stockpile could result in significant logistical setbacks for Russian air operations.

In addition to the bombs, at least one military training aircraft was confirmed to be damaged in the attack. These training aircraft play an important role in preparing new pilots for combat missions. The destruction of training assets could disrupt future pilot readiness and operational planning.

Some reports also suggest that the strike may have damaged or destroyed other aircraft at the base, although officials have not confirmed this yet. Defense analysts are still reviewing images and satellite data. Ukrainian officials stated that they carefully planned and executed the attack to maximize strategic impact and minimize the risk to civilians.

Military experts point out that targeting an air base inside Russian territory requires high levels of coordination, intelligence, and precision. The involvement of Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces highlights the increasing reach and capabilities of the Ukrainian military. These elite units are trained for complex missions behind enemy lines and are often used for high-value targets.

Purpose of the Borisoglebsk Operation and Official Statements​

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stated that this operation is part of a broader strategy to weaken Russia’s military capabilities and protect Ukrainian civilian lives. They explained that by targeting key military sites, they aim to reduce the Russian army’s ability to launch further attacks on Ukrainian territory.

In an official statement, the Ukrainian defence authorities said:

“The defenSe forces continue to take all necessary measures to undermine the potential of the Russian occupiers to strike civilian infrastructure and compel Russia to end its armed aggression against Ukraine.”
This message underlines the strategic motive behind the strike. Ukraine continues to face missile and drone attacks on its cities and towns. By striking air bases that launch such operations, the Ukrainian military is working to decrease the frequency and intensity of those attacks.

The operation at Borisoglebsk is another example of Ukraine’s expanding defence efforts beyond its borders. It demonstrates how Ukrainian forces are focusing not just on defensive actions, but also on taking offensive steps to reduce the resources available to the Russian military.

Though the exact results of the attack are still being verified, this strike marks a significant moment in the ongoing conflict. It shows Ukraine’s ability to conduct high-impact operations deep within Russian territory.
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Russia in panic as vital military pipelines in Far East explode​


Ukraine has reported a successful strike on a Russian air base, as well as hitting a gas and water pipeline, while Russia ramped up its aerial attacks with an overnight drone onslaught, dampening any hopes for headway in resolving the conflict that has now exceeded three years.

Ukraine managed to damage a gas pipeline and obliterate a water pipeline in Russia's Vladivostok, which served military installations in the vicinity, according to an intelligence source who spoke to the Kyiv Independent on July 5. Post-explosion fires ravaged sections of the Vladivostok gas pipeline near the Sea of Japan, the source indicated.

Additionally, the Ukrainian military's General Staff announced that their forces struck the Borisoglebsk air base in Russia's Voronezh region, which is known to host Russia's Su-34, Su-35S, and Su-30SM fighter jets. The General Staff shared details of the attack on Facebook, noting the damage inflicted on glide bomb storage, a training aircraft, and "possibly other aircraft."

These blasts took place in the early hours of July 5, between 1-2 a.m., with Russian special services and repair crews arriving soon after. The explosions coincided with the city of Vladivostok's 165th anniversary celebration on July 2.

Russian authorities have not yet issued a response to the allegations of the attack. These assaults on Russian air bases represent strategic efforts by Ukraine to diminish Russia's military capabilities and demonstrate their capacity to hit major targets deep within Russian borders.

Ukraine had previously declared that it had destroyed more than 40 Russian aircraft at multiple airfields far inside Russia through a surprise drone offensive. During the night leading into Saturday, Russia deployed 322 drones and decoys targeting Ukraine, according to Ukraine's air force. Of these, 157 were shot down and eliminated, while 135 went missing, likely due to electronic interference.

The air force reported that the western Khmelnytskyi region experienced the heaviest bombardment. Governor Serhii Tyurin confirmed on Saturday that no damage, injuries, or deaths had been reported.

Russia has escalated its long-distance attacks on Ukraine, with a major aerial campaign striking Kyiv overnight into Friday, representing the most extensive such assault since the Russian invasion began. On Saturday, Kyiv's Mayor Vitali Klitschko announced that the death count from the strike had climbed to two, with an additional 31 people wounded.

This recent bombardment comes after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy revealed on Friday that he had engaged in a "very important and productive" discussion with U.S. President Donald Trump. During their conversation, the leaders discussed strengthening Ukrainian air defenses, potential joint weapons manufacturing between the U.S. and Ukraine, and wider U.S.-led initiatives to end the conflict with Russia, according to Zelenskyy's statement.

When pressed by reporters on Friday evening about the phone call, Trump responded, "We had a very good call, I think." Addressing questions about resolving the hostilities, Trump stated: "I don't know. I can't tell you whether or not that's going to happen."

The United States has temporarily suspended certain military aid deliveries to Ukraine, including crucial air defense missiles. Ukraine's main European partners are assessing methods to offset this gap.

Zelenskyy has suggested that plans are underway to strengthen Ukraine's domestic weapons manufacturing, though scaling up will take time.

Russia's Defense Ministry claimed it intercepted 94 Ukrainian drones overnight into Saturday, with another 45 drones destroyed Saturday morning and early afternoon. While no fatalities were reported, local authorities in the Saratov region said that 25 apartments in the city of Engels sustained damage from Ukrainian drones.


Moscow's Mayor, Sergei Sobyanin, declared that four Ukrainian drones were intercepted and shot down as they neared Moscow on Saturday. In response to this, air traffic was briefly halted at one of Moscow's airports, Sheremetyevo, as per the Russian aviation authority Rosaviatsiya.
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Zelenskyy said Ukraine had struck deals with European allies and a leading US defence company to step up drone production, ensuring Kyiv receives “hundreds of thousands” more UAVs this year. Zelenskyy did not name the US business in his nightly video address to Ukrainians, but said Ukraine and Denmark had also agreed to co-produce drones and other weapons on Danish soil.
 
How Old-School Tech Is Rewiring Drone Warfare in Ukraine

As Russia and Ukraine battle to gain an edge on the battlefield, fiber-optic drones are a distinctly old-school response to the way both sides have used electronic warfare and physical barriers to make most ordinary craft ineffective. Instead of using radio signals that can be easily blocked, fiber-optic drones transmit data back to the pilot through the cable they unspool as they fly.

“If it wasn’t for those drones, I’m not sure what I’d be doing right now,” said a top pilot with Ukraine’s 68th Brigade’s Dovbush Hornets, which carried out the bridge ambush that killed several Russians. “Fiber optics is a lifeline.”
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On first glance, they resemble traditional wireless quadcopters. But a box strapped to the fiber-optic drone contains a coiled length of cable, usually up to 20 kilometers long, of the type used to power high-speed internet access. This line forms a link between the drone and a guidance device on the ground.

During flight, the cable is unwound and released through a small opening in the box, ensuring an airtight connection between the device and its pilot. The drones can then be deployed at the beginning of a combined attack to disable Russian electronic-warfare systems and pave the way for squadrons of radio-guided drones to decimate the enemy position.

Fiber-optic drones are a gamechanger in built-up areas, where walls or ravines interfere with radio signals. A skilled pilot can maneuver a fiber-optic drone around obstacles and strike the enemy where it least expects to be reached, destroying armored vehicles positioned on low ground or deep in the forest. They can also fly into buildings and wait for the appropriate target, or enter a garage or hangar and ambush the first Russian tank that drives in.

“You can park this drone on the ground and simply wait for a vehicle to come,” said Michael Kofman, a defense expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “This is a logical adaptation considering how drones and electronic warfare have been evolving over the course of this war—one countering the other.”

The Dovbush Hornets, a unit named after an 18th-century Ukrainian outlaw, now fields one of the army’s best drone teams. The 32-year-old pilot, who goes by the call sign “Respected,” spent months trying to adjust the frequencies of radio-guided drones to evade Russian electronic warfare, achieving unimpeded flight for brief periods before the Russians tapped the same wave.
On missions inside Pokrovsk, a city once home to 80,000 people, the quadcopters launched by Respected’s unit barely left the ground before they lost signal and became inoperable.

The fiber-optic drones they began receiving in the spring had no such issues.

Respected, an avid videogamer from Lviv who was mobilized into the army while out walking his dog in his pajamas in the fall of 2022, found that the new drones could maneuver around hard obstacles without losing signal.

His unit used them to kill a group of Russians hiding inside a length of metal piping near a construction site close to the front line. In another mission, they flew inside an abandoned school and destroyed vast stores of equipment left by Russian soldiers.

One video posted online showed Russian troops using wooden batons in a futile effort to knock out a fiber-optic drone. In another clip, a Russian emerges from a forest hideout after a fiber-optic drone flew past and films himself using heavy-duty scissors to cut the cable, causing the drone to crash.

“They create an effect of terror when you know there is no escape,” said Lt. Andriy Kasianenko, a company commander in the Achilles Drone Regiment. “You can be reached in buildings, in low-lying areas, anywhere."
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In an age of wireless connectivity, Ukraine realized the weapons represent both a leap forward and an anachronism because cables make drones more unwieldy and often slower. The wire can veer off course in heavy wind or break if it gets twisted over a tree line or built-up area. Tanks and other vehicles with tracks can snap the cable if they drive over it, severing the drone’s connection to the pilot.

Before launching one recent flight, Respected’s unit asked pedestrians in a busy shopping area to take a circuitous route on their morning errands to avoid interfering with the cable. Respected says the cable still snaps on half the flights he launches.

It is also heavy. Most drones can carry a weight of 3 kilograms in flight, but a box containing 10 kilometers of fiber-optic cable spool weighs around 1.5 kilograms, limiting the payload they can carry.

“The longer the cable, the bigger the drone needs to be,” said East, a pilot in Kasianenko’s unit. “But the bigger the drone, the easier it is for the Russians to stop and shoot it.”
When a fiber-optic drone reaches its target and detonates, the wire that trailed it remains on the ground. Miles of fiber-optic cable now cover roads and fields throughout eastern and southern Ukraine. Soldiers have posted videos of themselves tripping over wire as they trek through fields. One photographed a bird’s nest made out of discarded fiber-optic cable.

It isn’t just a long-term environmental issue. Ukrainian soldiers say enemy troops can fly reconnaissance drones and track a line of cable back to the position from where it was launched.

“With fiber optics, it is better to launch a drone and move from the location after the operation is done,” said East. “It is far too easy to track.”
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Kasianenko, the Achilles company commander, said these drones will continue to be used for specific targets ordinary drones cannot reach, paving the way for radio-controlled munitions to attack.

To counter them, he and other Ukrainian commanders envision a future where fields near the front line are dotted with scissor-like devices jutting out of the ground and primed to cut through any fiber-optic cable that falls between their razors.

But by that point, the technological revolution will likely have moved on with AI-guided quadcopters locking on to targets on their own and changing frequencies to ensure they are not disabled.

“All radio-controlled frequencies for most drones will eventually be completely jammed,” Kasianenko said. “Soon, auto-guidance systems will be the future.”
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Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Russia has launched 28,743 Shahed/Geran drones at Ukraine - 2,736 of them in June of this year, according to President Zelensky. Our team took a brief look at the Shahed numbers and noted the following trends and figures🧵:

2/ The 2,736 drones launched in June, many targeting Kyiv, make up nearly 10% of the total, proving growing production. This aligns with earlier warnings from Ukrainian intelligence, which estimated Russia’s monthly output at around 2700 Shahed-type UAVs and roughly 2500 decoys
3/ Ukrainian Air Force data shows 5,438 drones of this type were launched at Ukraine in June 2025 - about twice the number cited by Zelensky. The gap likely comes from the Air Force counting both Geran and decoys UAVs, while Zelensky referred only to strictly Geran drones
4/ Based on our analysis, Russia’s drone production averaged approximately 60.5 units per day between February and April 2025 - roughly 1,850 drones per month. This is close to June figures, especially when accounting for continued growth in production and periods of stockpiling
5/ When compared to Russia’s original drone production plans, leaked and visualized in 2023, the current pace appears largely consistent with expectations, though a bit below the initial targets (Depending on whether the initial production numbers included decoy numbers).
6/ For context, Ukrainian officials told Forbes in August 2024 that Russia was producing about 500 Shaheds a month then. Since then, output has multiplied, and the drones have become deadlier: the warhead weight has increased from 50 to 90 kg, and maneuverability has improved
7/ The growing scale is a serious problem for Ukraine. Even with a high and very optimistic interception rate of 95%, a single wave of 700 drones would still let roughly 35 reach their targets. Three such waves could cause over 100 impacts, each carrying a 90-kg warhead.
8/ Ukraine is mounting an effective response, but current capacity isn’t enough to match the scale of the threat. It’s not just about increasing production but also about reducing the cost per interception - making it much cheaper to intercept drones than to manufacture them
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In historic feat, Ukraine's 3rd Brigade captures Russian troops using only drones and robots, military says

Ukrainian forces have for the first time captured Russian troops without the use of infantry, relying solely on drones and ground-based robotic systems, Ukraine's 3rd Separate Assault Brigade said on July 9.

"For the first time in history: Russian soldiers surrendered to the 3rd Assault Brigade's ground drones," the statement read.
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White House Weighs Giving Ukraine Another Patriot Air-Defense System

The White House has asked the Pentagon for options for sending Ukraine additional weapons, including a Patriot system, one of the officials said. Officials are also exploring if other countries can provide more Patriots to Kyiv, the official said.
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The U.S. has provided Kyiv with three Patriot systems, Germany sent another three, and a consortium of European countries sent one, according to a former Pentagon official, but not all are up and running at the same time due to maintenance issues.
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Russia launches record 728 drones overnight, Ukraine's air force says

Russia launched a record 728 drones against Ukraine and 13 missiles, Ukraine's air force said on Wednesday.
Ukrainian air defence systems destroyed 718 of the drones and seven missiles, the air force said on the Telegram messaging app.
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Ukraine detains Chinese spies tasked with stealing Neptune missile technology, SBU says

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has detained two Chinese nationals in Kyiv suspected of attempting to steal classified military technology related to Ukraine's Neptune cruise missile system, the agency announced on July 9.

According to the SBU, the two individuals, a 24-year-old former student of a Kyiv technical university and his father, were gathering secret documentation with the intent to illegally transfer it to Chinese intelligence.
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Did you know Russia’s Su-34 and Su-35S jets, used in bombing campaigns, contain over 1,100 microelectronic parts from 11 Global Export Control Coalition countries? A new joint investigation by IPHR, NAKO, and Hunterbrook uncovers the supply chain. 🧵Thread with key takeaways:
2/ Most components come from the US, but the supply chain spans Germany to Japan. Of 891 parts from 138 firms, 59% are under strict export controls. 36.3% of shipments were small-value (less than $10000), pointing at intermediaries and shell companies use to evade sanctions
3/ Despite sweeping sanctions, Russia continues to receive Western semiconductors at industrial scale. An analysis of more than 180,000 customs records from 2023 shows approximately $805.6 million worth of microelectronics arriving from top-tier global suppliers.
4/ The most frequently identified parts came from leading manufacturers: 102 from Analog Devices, 123 from Murata, and 120 from Texas Instruments. Others included components from Intel, AMD, Maxim, OnSemi, and Vicor.
5/ Between mid-2024 and spring 2025, IPHR, NAKO, and Hunterbrook reached out to 143 companies whose components were found in Su-34 and Su-35S jets used in strikes that may constitute war crimes in Ukraine.
/6 Eleven firms provided detailed feedback, pointing to three primary channels through which their products likely reached Russia: legacy inventory shipped before the invasion, counterfeit or relabeled goods, and indirect sales through third-party distributors
/7 Serbia is a good example of how tangled these trade routes can get. Of the $50.9 million in shipments linked to Serbia, $21.8 million worth entered Russia through Hong Kong, and another $21.3 million came in via Sri Lanka.
8/ Legacy stock was the most cited explanation. Peak Electronics linked a converter found in Su-35S wreckage to a model discontinued in 2006. ITT confirmed a microswitch used in the jets was produced only between 2000 and 2007, but can remain functional indefinitely.
9/ The authors of the report suggest to tighten export controls on critical components, raise due diligence standards for makers and suppliers, and boost fines and enforcement for violations, steps needed to block the flow of key tech to Russia.
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Orange&Blue said:
really need to come up with a more cost effective anti drone system than Patriots. we can't afford that (financially and production wise).

Trump just needs to rip the band-aid off and employ every financial punishment possible against Russia and keep it till they stop.
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Are the Patriots being used for drones? I thought they were being mostly used against missiles.
 
Orange&Blue said:
really need to come up with a more cost effective anti drone system than Patriots. we can't afford that (financially and production wise).

Trump just needs to rip the band-aid off and employ every financial punishment possible against Russia and keep it till they stop.
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The Patriots are being fired at ballistic and cruise missiles, not drones like the Shaheeds. Some of the Russian ballistic missiles the only thing capable of knocking then down are the Patriots.

They are using a hodgepodge of systems against drones but the Patriots are saved for the ballistic/cruise and to defend against aircraft.
 
Dezbelief said:
Orange&Blue said:
really need to come up with a more cost effective anti drone system than Patriots. we can't afford that (financially and production wise).

Trump just needs to rip the band-aid off and employ every financial punishment possible against Russia and keep it till they stop.
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Are the Patriots being used for drones? I thought they were being mostly used against missiles.
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Correct.

A recent tactic by the Russians has been to fly the drones higher out of reach for a lot of what they use to defend against drones knowing the Ukrainians will not use Patriots up on them.
 
US military delivering some weapons to Ukraine after pause
The United States is delivering artillery shells and mobile rocket artillery missiles to Ukraine, two U.S. officials told Reuters on Wednesday, days after President Donald Trump's administration halted shipments of some critical weapons to Kyiv.
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The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said 155 mm artillery shells and GMLRS (mobile rocket artillery) missiles were now being provided to Ukraine. The officials did not say how many weapons were being sent and whether the shipment was complete. It was also unclear why the latest shipments only included shells and artillery missiles and whether any decision had been made to resume shipments of other weapons.
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In June, Ukraine recorded the highest monthly number of civilian casualties in three years, with 232 people killed and 1,343 injured, according to a report released on July 10 by the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine.
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Germany ready to buy US Patriot systems for Ukraine, Merz says

Berlin is ready to purchase Patriot air defense systems from the United States and transfer them to Ukraine, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on July 10 amid an uptick in Russian aerial strikes, Sky News reported.
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Russia launches massive overnight attack on Ukraine with 400 drones, 18 missiles – Zelensky

“Last night, Russia launched a massive combined strike that lasted nearly 10 hours. 18 missiles, including ballistic ones, and around 400 attack drones were used — nearly 200 of them were Shaheds,” Zelensky stated.

According to the President, the main target was Kyiv and Kyiv region, but other areas were also hit, including Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Kirovohrad, and Kharkiv regions.
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The Drone Factories Fueling Russia’s Unprecedented Assaults on Ukraine

What paved the way for the unprecedented scale of Wednesday’s drone attacks was an agreement Russia signed in November 2022 with Iran, to purchase and produce Iran’s Shahed attack drones on Russian territory. Russia paid $1.75 billion for the Shahed technology, equipment, source code and 6,000 drones, according to a recent report from C4ADS, a nonprofit organization researching illicit networks worldwide.

At the time, Moscow had expended much of its long-range rocket stocks in the course of that year, and the effective but cheap Iranian drones offered an alternative solution enabling Moscow to continue its aerial assaults. Estimates vary widely on how much it costs Russia to produce a single Shahed drone, with defense analysts putting it anywhere from $35,000 to $60,000.

The initial models were shipped directly from Iran, but Russia also paid for the technology and, over time, mastered the different elements of the production chain. In Tatarstan, east of Moscow, facilities inside the Alabuga Special Economic Zone expanded to accommodate the requirements of drone manufacture.

Alabuga drew on Chinese components, a workforce that included cheap laborers hired from Africa, and the logistics networks that Iran had honed during its own yearslong standoff with the West.
Ukrainian drones have struck the facility several times, but Russia has managed to continue the work. Intelligence officials in Kyiv say it has since outsourced parts of it to other facilities across the country.

For Russia, making the drones locally has been a way of reducing its reliance on Iran—a prescient decision in light of Israel’s bombardment of Iran last month and the depletion of Iran’s own drone stocks through retaliatory attacks on Israel.

Moscow’s adaptations have also improved on Iran’s original design, making them faster and quieter. That has increased their maneuverability and helped maximize damage.

Ukrainian officials say Russia is now producing more than 5,000 of the long-range drones and decoys each month, with some able to fly 2,500 kilometers to their target. That has allowed Moscow to saturate Ukraine’s skies with the flying machines.
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This is a good case our team analyzed in our study of Russian motorcycle tactics. One advantage shared by the Russians was the ability to conceal motorcycles inside buildings, allowing them to “pop up” near Ukrainian positions by rapidly advancing from cover

The idea is simple: if you can successfully hide motorcycles in a building not far from the starting point of the advance, you can launch a surprise attack. By the time it's detected by UAVs, there may be no time to respond with FPV or artillery
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Russia's summer push in Ukraine targets three fronts but faces stern resistance

Russians rarely launch massive assaults, says Lt Artem Pribylnov from Ukraine's 155th brigade, stationed near Pokrovsk.

Any large movement of troops and armoured vehicles will be quickly detected and destroyed by drones. Instead, Lt Pribylnov says, the Russians rely on small groups of infantry troops who relentlessly attack Ukrainian positions, sometimes on motor bikes but more often on foot.

This kind of "creeping offensive", as some call it, is aimed at exhausting Kyiv's resources until endless waves of Russian soldiers eventually push the Ukrainians out of their positions. But the price they pay is frighteningly high.

Ukraine's general staff puts Russia's casualties at more than 1,000 soldiers a day. The BBC cannot verify these figures independently, but they do indicate the heavy losses Russia is suffering.

Russia's aim in eastern Ukraine appears to be to create "a cauldron", semi-encircling the Ukrainians around Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka and then forcing them to retreat.
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Russian troops are now trying to wedge into the area between these two cities to create "a bridgehead from where they can attack Pokrovsk or Kostyantynivka", says Maj Viktor Trehubov, a spokesman for the Khortytsya operational-strategic group, which co-ordinates forces in eastern Ukraine.

A breakthrough here is not considered likely. Russia's advance between Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk is already slowing down and earlier attempts to push from other sides have stalled.
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The Ukrainians are nevertheless facing increasing pressure on the front lines, as Russian troops are constantly trying to cut off their supply lines with drone attacks.

"Those routes that we used two months ago, we can't use them now, not during the daytime, not even at night," Staff Sgt Viktor Pyasetskyi from Ukraine's 93rd brigade stationed near Kostyantynivka told the BBC over the phone.

As a result it has become extremely complicated and slow to deliver food and ammunition, evacuate the wounded and rotate troops on the front line.
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Russia’s summer Ukraine offensive looks like its deadliest yet

Captured Russian officers in Ukraine reportedly say the summer offensive was presented to them as “one last push”. Mr Putin seems intent on breaking Ukrainian morale and snatching a victory after more than three years of war. He also seems willing to pay for it: our new modelling suggests that Russia’s daily death toll is higher than at any other point in the conflict.
There is no official tally of losses on either side. But our daily war tracker offers some clues. Our satellite data and shifts to areas of control suggest when the fighting is intensifying. This lines up well with more than 200 credible estimates of casualties from Western governments and independent researchers. By combining this data we can, for the first time, provide a credible daily death toll—or an estimate of estimates.
As of July 9th our tracker suggests there have been between 900,000 and 1.3m Russian casualties since the war began, including some 190,000–350,000 deaths. That updates assessments from other sources, which put total casualties above 1m at the end of June. Our numbers suggest roughly 31,000 Russians may have been killed in the summer offensive so far, which began in earnest on May 1st.
There is too little data to generate a comparable live estimate for Ukraine. However, a catalogue of the known dead and missing from UALosses, a website, implies that between 73,000 and 140,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died since the invasion began.
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Top Ukrainian spy shot dead with silenced pistol in Kyiv

A senior Ukrainian spy has been shot dead by an assassin using a silenced pistol on the streets of Kyiv.
Col Ivan Voronich, a senior operational officer in Ukraine’s security service, was crossing the street near a block of flats in the capital’s Holosiivskyi district when he was approached by a man with a gun on Thursday morning.
Footage shared on Telegram showed the moment Col Voronich was shot five times next to a row of parked cars.
Following the attack, a man can be seen running along the street in the opposite direction while stuffing a gun into his shorts.
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According to @Deepstate_UA, Russia launched more than 100 FPVs at Dobropillia on July 9-10, including civilian targets. Dobropillia is a key logistics/command and control hub for the defense of Pokrovsk.
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In Russia, police gets bonuses of 10,000-100,000 rubles for recruiting detainees to fight in Ukraine, Verstka reports. Police must offer suspects a Defense Ministry contract before interrogation, during rights explanation, per talks with officers, investigators, lawyers, judges
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Mobilization, payouts, demographics, and desertions are central factors shaping the war’s trajectory. Thanks to weekly notes by the Conflict Intelligence Team, we have some data to analyze the current state of affairs in Russia. Below are some key points from the past two weeks:
2/ The sign-up bonus for contracts with the Ministry of Defense in the Novosibirsk region will double from 800,000 rubles ($10200), set in December 2024, to 1.6 million rubles ($20400) between July 1 and September 30. An additional 400,000 will be given from the federal budget
3/ The sign-up bonus with the Ministry of Defense in Vladimir region has been raised to 2.1 million rubles ($26,700) for the period from July 1 to September 30. This marks the third increase in 2025, following rises to 1 million rubles in January and 1.6 million in April.
4/ The Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) has withheld demographic data, omitting the relevant section from its May edition, released this week. The move appears intended to prevent independent assessments of wartime losses based on shifts in demographic indicators.
5/ Speaking at a session of the interdepartmental commission on military staffing, Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council, stated that more than 210,000 individuals signed contracts in the first half of 2025, an average of over 35,000 per month
6/ The Ministry of Defense plans to open 15 new military schools between 2025 and 2034. According to Izvestia, two have already been approved. In 2025, the Saratov Military Engineering School of CBRN Defense and the Nizhny Novgorod Military Engineering School will open.
7/ According to the Russian outlet Vyorstka, servicemen declared wanted for going AWOL are rarely arrested. Instead, many are sent in large numbers to assault units. Over the past month, more than a thousand such soldiers have been detained across the country.
8/ According to relatives of soldiers from the 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade, beatings, torture, and confinement in pits without food or water are common. Extortion is also widespread, and under these conditions, casualty rates have reportedly reached as high as 96 percent.
10/ To add context: the casualty rates cited in the petition likely refer to a battalion, as the “battalion command” is specifically mentioned. I have no doubt that Russia is experiencing high casualty rates, but as an analyst, I have to note that anyone can register a petition
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The Russian air travel collapse in figures. During H1 2025 due to bad weather and bans on flights due to drone attacks the number of long delays for Russian flights equaled the total in 2023.

The number of delays that are from 1 hour to 4 hours has more than doubled compared to H1 2024. The number of delays over 4 hours is 2,5 times higher than in H1 2024. AlfaStrakhovanie has developed a monitoring system for flight delays as it offers insurance against it.
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Most Russian airlines have not yet recorded a significant increase in delays when asked and they say that takeoff bans linked to drones became a major concern only in 2025. The other most common reason is bad weather.
Maintenance and planning issues according to them remain at pre-pandemic levels. Only Ural Airlines admitted that they have an increase in all categories of delay duration but said it was insignificant and due to a change in the flight structure.

In winter the causes for delay are bad weather and additional time for treating aircraft with anti-icing fluid and warming up the planes. During the summer it's mainly the low capacity of airports near resort cities.
However Kommersant sources at airports note that the bans due to drone attacks and the bad weather and claims of airport issues are hiding the real causes for delays.
According to them the reality is that some carriers are experiencing a shortage of reserve aircraft and an increase in delays due to aircraft malfunctions.
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Ukraine to deploy drones for frontline medical evacuations – CinC Syrskyi

Unmanned systems will be used for medical evacuation from the front line, given the realities of modern warfare.
This was announced by Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, on Facebook, as reported by Ukrinform on July 10, 2025.

Syrskyi held a dedicated meeting where current challenges in military medicine were discussed and potential solutions were outlined.

“Among our top priorities is improving field medicine, particularly medical evacuation from the forward edge of the battlefield. In modern war conditions, we must use unmanned systems for this purpose,” Syrskyi emphasized.

During the meeting, the Commander-in-Chief listened to reports from the Commander of the Ukrainian Armed Forces' Medical Forces and senior medical officers from various branches of the military.

According to Syrskyi, while medical units are currently staffed at a level sufficient to carry out their assigned tasks, there remains a shortage of medics at stabilization points. The junior medical personnel, particularly combat medics, are in urgent need of reinforcement.

To address this staffing issue, Syrskyi ordered that since May, 2% of graduates from basic general military training be selected for combat medic training.
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Trump to use presidential authority to send weapons to Ukraine, sources say

The package could include defensive Patriot missiles and offensive medium-range rockets, but a decision on the exact equipment has not been made, the sources said. One of the people said this would happen at a meeting on Thursday.
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President Donald Trump told NBC on Thursday he struck a deal with NATO for the US to send weapons to Ukraine through the alliance, and that NATO will pay for those weapons “a hundred percent. We’re sending weapons to NATO, and NATO is paying for those weapons, a hundred percent,” the president told NBC News’ Kristen Welker in a phone interview Thursday. “We’re going to be sending Patriots to NATO, and then NATO will distribute that,” he said, according to NBC News. CNN has reached out to NATO for comment. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte spoke to Trump earlier Thursday. “Earlier today I urged leaders to go further so Ukraine has more ammunition & air defences,” Rutte posted on X. “I’ve just spoken with President Trump & am now working closely with Allies to get Ukraine the help they need.” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also said earlier Thursday that the United States is “actively” talking to countries in Europe about sharing Patriot batteries with Ukraine. “There are other Patriot batteries and there are other opportunities. Countries that have ordered Patriot batteries that are about to receive shipments of them, it’d be great if one of them volunteered to defer that shipment and send it to Ukraine instead,” Rubio told reporters in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, after meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
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https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/10/politics/us-weapons-ukraine-nato-deal-trump
 

Zelenskyy sends 'unexpected signals' on military funding at Coalition of the Willing meeting​


President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy sent "unexpected signals" to partners regarding funding for the Armed Forces of Ukraine during the Coalition of the Willing meeting in Rome on July 10, he said while speaking to representatives of Ukrainian and foreign media.

Zelenskyy emphasized the need to discuss increasing funding for Ukrainian soldiers, acknowledging that these were likely "unexpected signals" but stressing he had been very candid during the Coalition of the Willing meeting.

He added that Ukraine must have a strong army.

The president stated that moving fully toward a professional contract-based army is undoubtedly the right path.

Meeting of the Coalition of the Willing

On Thursday, July 10, a meeting of the Coalition of the Willing took place in Rome. Participants discussed, among other issues, the possibility of deploying foreign troops to Ukraine.

For the first time, representatives of the United States took part in the coalition's session — including US Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg and Senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal.

The leaders reaffirmed their support for Ukraine's sovereignty and condemned the Russian invasion as a blatant violation of the UN Charter. They praised President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's commitment to peace and noted that four months had passed since Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire, during which Russia only intensified its attacks. More than 700 civilians were killed and over 3,500 injured in that period.

The coalition agreed on new sanctions targeting Russia's war economy — including energy and financial sectors, oil and gas exports, the shadow fleet, and shipments from third countries involved in the war effort.

Leaders confirmed that Ukraine will receive at least €40 billion in military aid in 2025. The priority will be air defense systems, drone interceptors, and strengthening Ukraine's future armed forces. This support will be coordinated through the Contact Group, NATO's NSATU (NATO Security Assistance to Ukraine) initiative, and other relevant coalitions.

They also pledged to continue financial and economic support for Ukraine. In 2026, a collective budgetary framework is planned for Ukraine. Additionally, there was a reaffirmation of support for demining the Black Sea and a willingness to explore mechanisms for Russia to compensate for damages, including through the use of profits from frozen Russian assets.
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Ukraine's spy chief reveals new condition for Ukraine-Russia ceasefire​


A ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia must be reached as soon as possible, says Kyrylo Budanov, Chief of Defence Intelligence of Ukraine, in an interview with Bloomberg.

While Ukraine agreed to US calls for an unconditional ceasefire, Russian President Vladimir Putin told Donald Trump in a phone call that Russia "will not back down" from its military objectives, according to the Kremlin transcript.

Budanov said the ceasefire must be achieved well before the end of this year.

"Is it realistic to do so? Yes. Is it difficult — no. It takes at least three sides — Ukraine, Russia, and the US. And we will get to this position," he said.

Trumps call with Putin

On July 3, Putin announced a planned conversation with US President Donald Trump. Later, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Putin and Trump are completely different people with few common topics for discussion.

Trump said Putin threatened a retaliatory strike. It is unclear if the former US president tried to convince the Russian leader to avoid further escalation.

The Kremlin described the conversation as “frank and constructive.” Kremlin adviser on international affairs Yuri Ushakov said Trump and Putin are “on the same wavelength.” He added that Putin made it clear Moscow will not change its intentions regarding Ukraine and will continue pursuing its goals.

Ukraine-Russia negotiations

The first round of talks took place on May 16 in Istanbul. The sides agreed to conduct a prisoner exchange on a 1,000-for-1,000 format. The second round of peace talks between the Ukrainian and Russian delegations concluded on June 2 in Istanbul.

Preparations are underway for a third meeting. It is likely to take place again in Istanbul, Türkiye. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said Russia expressed readiness for the third round of talks with Ukraine.
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Rubio reveals Russia’s frontline losses since start of 2025​


Since the beginning of 2025, Russia has lost 100,000 soldiers in the war against Ukraine. The losses of the Ukrainian army are smaller, said US Secretary of State Marco Rubio during a press conference.

"And again, I mean, it’s – every time you see this in the headlines and people die, it reminds you of why the President wants this war to end," Rubio stated.

He noted that Trump's number one interest is to stop the loss of life and destruction that occurs every day.

"But obviously the loss of life is something of grave interest – of great interest to the President. It’s important to note that since January of this year, as an example just to give you, on the Russian side, they’ve lost 100,000 soldiers – dead, not injured – dead. And on the Ukrainian side, the numbers are less but still very significant. And so that’s – the President doesn’t like wars," Rubio said.

According to Rubio, Trump believes that wars are a waste of money and lives.

"And he’s going to do everything he can within his power to end this war and any other war he has a chance to end, as you’ve seen in the past. And so, we’re going to continue to work at it. We understand that these things take time and patience, but obviously, we’re also frustrated that more progress has not been made," US Secretary of State emphasized.

Russia’s losses in the war

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, since the beginning of the full-scale war against Ukraine, Russia has lost approximately 1,030,580 troops.

In particular, over the past day alone, from July 9 to 10, Russian forces lost 920 soldiers and 136 units of equipment on the front line.

Meanwhile, according to Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukrainian defenders eliminated more than 230,000 Russian troops, killed and wounded, in the first six months of 2025.
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The Ukrainian Air Force says Russia launched 597 Shahed OWA and simulator UAVs and 26 Kh-101 cruise missiles overnight.
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Ukraine Spy Chief Says 40% of Russian Ammunition Is North Korean

North Korea is now supplying as much as 40% of Russia’s ammunition for the war in Ukraine as the partnership between Pyongyang and Moscow deepens, according to the head of Ukrainian military intelligence.
Kim Jong Un’s regime is also sending other weapons to Russia, including ballistic missiles and artillery systems, Kyrylo Budanov said in an interview with Bloomberg News. Russia is providing money and technology to North Korea in return, helping to ease Pyongyang’s international isolation, he said.
“Those are good weapons,” Budanov, who attributed 60% of losses in military-intelligence units in the past three months to strikes by North Korean-made artillery, said in his office in Kyiv. “North Korea has huge stockpiles and production goes on around the clock.”
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“It’s not realistic for Russia to seize all of the Donetsk region by the end of the year,” Budanov said. Russian troops “have a political goal to declare that they entered” Dnipropetrovsk region and are tasked with setting up another buffer zone of as much as 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) in depth, he said.
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Germany-funded long-range weapons to arrive in Ukraine by late July, general says

Ukraine will begin receiving hundreds of domestically produced long-range weapon systems by the end of July under a German-financed agreement, German Major General Christian Freuding told the German ZDF news channel on July 11.

The weapons will be supplied in a "high triple-digit quantity," he said, referring to a deal between Ukraine's Defense Ministry and local arms producers that Berlin agreed to fund in late May.

"We need weapons systems that can reach far into the depth of Russian territory — to hit depots, command centers, airfields and aircraft," Freuding said, adding that Germany is "ready to provide such systems."

The general, who heads the Ukraine task force at the German Defense Ministry, did not specify what kind of long-range systems Germany is financing.
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The Voronych hit: Russia strikes back at Ukraine’s shadow war architect

The morning of 10 July started like any other for Colonel Ivan Voronych. Around 8 AM, the veteran Ukrainian Security Service officer stepped out of his apartment building in Kyiv’s Holosiivskyi district, likely heading to another day of what had become Ukraine’s most dangerous work – running covert operations against Russia.

He never made it past the parking lot.

A gunman approached and fired five shots from a silenced pistol. Voronych died instantly from multiple penetrating wounds. The killer vanished in an SUV, leaving behind a crime scene that would send shockwaves through Ukraine’s intelligence community.
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This wasn’t just another intelligence officer. The New York Times reports that Voronych (also spelled Voronich in some reports) served in the SBU’s elite Alpha Special Operations Center and had spent decades building Ukraine’s most sensitive capabilities against Russia.

His career reads like a spy thriller. Starting in the mid-1990s, Voronych eventually commanded what the NYT describes as “a unit that received technical support from the CIA” and was responsible for eliminating high-level Russian proxy commanders.

This CIA-supported Fifth Directorate eliminated Russian proxy commander Arsen Pavlov (“Motorola”) in Russia’s puppet Donbas “republics” in 2016. His unit played a key role in Ukraine’s August 2024 cross-border offensive into Russia’s Kursk Oblast.
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What makes this killing significant isn’t that it represents some fundamental shift in the shadow war—both sides have been targeting each other’s operatives for years. Ukrainian intelligence has assassinated “dozens” of Russians since the invasion began, reaching deep into Russian territory with car bombs and targeted shootings.

Russia has struck back before. Maksym Shapoval, a key figure in Ukraine’s 2016 Crimea operations, was assassinated in 2017. There was an attempt on current military intelligence head Kyrylo Budanov in 2019 and his wife in 2025.

But the targeting of someone like Voronych appears unprecedented in terms of seniority and operational significance since the full-scale war began. This was a decades-long veteran with deep CIA connections who had been instrumental in some of Ukraine’s most sensitive operations against Russia.
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The targeting itself suggests serious intelligence penetration. The FSB infiltration of Ukrainian security services is well-documented – this February, SBU chief Vasyl Maliuk personally arrested a high-ranking traitor in the SBU’s Anti-Terrorist Center who had been feeding intelligence to Moscow since 2018.
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It also raises uncomfortable questions about security. How did assassins penetrate Kyiv’s defenses to eliminate such a high-value target? Ukrainian security experts note that more than a day has passed without any official suspect description or wanted notice – suggesting this was no ordinary crime.
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Ukrainian Intelligence Officer Is Shot to Death in Kyiv Parking Lot

In the years since Russia’s invasion, Colonel Voronych was part of an elite unit responsible for operating in the gray zone between the enemy lines, colleagues said. His unit played a key role in Ukraine’s surprise attack on Russia’s Kursk region last summer, which resulted in Ukrainian troops occupying a chunk of Russian territory for eight months before they were driven out.
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kyivindependent.com

'Impeccable results' — New Skynex video shows Ukrainian forces destroying Russian drones with German gun

Filmed in an undisclosed location at an unspecified time, the video published on July 12 shows Ukrainian soldiers shooting down multiple Russian targets with a German-made Skynex air defense system.
kyivindependent.com kyivindependent.com

Impeccable results' — New Skynex video shows Ukrainian forces destroying Russian drones with German gun

The cutting-edge weapon, manufactured by the German firm Rheinmetall, effectively intercepts drones — including the Iranian-made Shaheds and their Russian equivalents — at relatively low cost. Ukraine has received at least two Skynex air defense systems in military aid packages from Germany.

Filmed in an undisclosed location at an unspecified time, the video published on July 12 shows Ukrainian soldiers shooting down multiple Russian targets with a Skynex system.

"Target hit. Target destroyed," a Ukrainian Skynex operator repeats as the mobile gun makes contact with at least seven Russian Shahed-type drones.

The Air Force praised the ability of Skynex to defend Ukraine's skies, calling its results "inspiring."

"Rheinmetall's Skynex anti-aircraft artillery complex in service with the Air Force shows impeccable results in destroying enemy strike UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles)," the Air Force wrote via Telegram.

"We will keep the time and place a secret, but, as you can see in the footage, the productive work of the 35-mm automated anti-aircraft gun is quite inspiring for our sky defenders!"

According to its German manufacturer Rheinmetall, Skynex is a "networked air defense" that provides "a highly effective layered protection shield against a wide spectrum of air threats" and serves as "the necessary answer against saturation and swarm attacks in the future."

The Oerlikon Revolver Gun Mk3 mounted to a Skynex battery can fire up to 1,000 rounds of ammunition per minute with a range of 4,000 meters. Skynex fires 35-mm Oerlikon Ahead rounds, which explode just before they reach their target. This releases a cluster of tungsten sub-projectiles which increases the chances of successfully destroying the drone.

The Air Force previously released video footage of the Skynex in action in September 2024.

The German government transferred its second Skynex air defense system to Ukraine in late April 2024. The two systems are currently the only units in operational use in the world.

The Air Force's video comes as Ukraine's critical need for air defense systems takes on new urgency amid increasingly frequent and deadly Russian aerial attacks. For three nights in a row, Russia has slammed Ukraine with mass missile and drone strikes, targeting Kyiv and cities far from the front lines.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on July 10 that Berlin is ready to purchase Patriot air defense systems from the United States and transfer them to Ukraine due to Russia's escalating aggression.

Kyiv has repeatedly urged Western partners to expand air defense coverage as Ukrainian cities withstand night after night of Russian bombardments.
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