*** Official Russia vs. Ukraine Discussion - Invasion has begun *** (3 Viewers)

[Redwes25]

Russia's economic miracle fades as growth grinds to a halt​

After years of unexpected resilience, the Russian economy is showing clear signs of slowing down. Indicators suggest that the annual growth rate has dropped from 5% to nearly 0%. High inflation has prompted the central bank to keep interest rates at 21%, and global trade tensions are further weakening Russian markets, which rely on the export of raw materials.
Sergey Lavrov, Russia's Foreign Minister, recently told the American network CBS that Russia has become immune to Western sanctions because it has "restructured the economy to be self-sufficient." These assurances contradict the analysis conducted by "The Economist."

The weekly publication suggests that the first symptoms of economic slowdown are visible nationwide, from Kaliningrad to Vladivostok. Evidence for this includes data from Goldman Sachs, which suggests that since the end of last year, Russia’s annual economic growth rate has fallen from about 5% to nearly zero. Similar trends are shown by the monthly growth estimates prepared by the Russian Development Bank VEB. Sberbank, Russia's largest lender, also reports a downward trend in high-frequency business turnover.

Although the Russian government is more reserved in its comments, it admits that the situation has changed. At the beginning of April, the Russian central bank reported that declines in production had been recently registered in many sectors, driven by rapidly falling demand.

The end of the economic miracle​

Over the last three years, signals from beyond Poland’s eastern border have been much more troubling. Despite sanctions and wartime expenditures, Russia’s economy exceeded almost all forecasts. This was due to a combination of fiscal expansion, high commodity prices, and the militarization of the economy. After the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, economists predicted a drop in Russia's annual GDP of up to 15%. In reality, the rate fell by only 1.4%, then increased by 4.1% in 2023 and 4.3% in 2024. Consumer confidence approached record-high levels.

As it seemed that Donald Trump, the President of the United States, might give Vladimir Putin what he wants to end the war in Ukraine, some analysts predicted Russia’s economy would accelerate even more in 2025. Current data points to a completely different scenario.
What is behind the sudden slowdown? Three reasons seem most likely. The first is what Russia's central bank euphemistically calls the "structural transformation" of the economy. Previously oriented towards the West and accepting private enterprise (with some restrictions), Russia has since 2022 shifted to a wartime economy oriented towards the East.

This transformation required massive investments, not only in arms and ammunition factories but also in new supply chains to increase trade with China and India, as well as to boost domestic production. By mid-2024, real capital expenditures were 23% higher than at the end of 2021.

According to the central bank, this adaptation is now complete. Military spending follows a similar pattern. Julian Cooper from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimates that this year, military expenditures will rise by only 3.4% in real terms, a drastic slowdown compared to the 53% increase last year. Weaker spending on "structural transformation" means slower growth.

Inflation and interest rates slow the economy​

The second factor is monetary policy. Inflation in Russia has been above the central bank’s target of 4% annually for months, even exceeding 10% in February and March. This is due not only to the growing pace of military spending but also to a labor shortage caused by conscription and the emigration of skilled workers. Last year, nominal wages in Russia rose by 18%, forcing companies to raise prices. In response, the central bank tightened control.


On April 25, the Russian central bank decided to keep the benchmark interest rate at 21%—the highest in the 21st century. Its super-hawkish stance may finally be yielding results. High rates encourage capital inflow into the ruble, making imports cheaper. Russians' inflation expectations over the next 12 months are falling from a recent peak of about 14% to around 13%. High-frequency data suggests that inflation is gradually decreasing.

Instead of spending money, Russians are placing it in savings accounts. High rates further discourage capital investments. If that were the whole story, perhaps Putin would remain satisfied. For the Russian government, a small, gradual slowdown might be a price worth paying if it means taming inflation.

The problem is that the slowdown is neither gradual nor small. This is occurring because, in recent weeks, a third factor has started to dominate all others—external conditions have deteriorated. As the U.S. trade war escalates, global growth forecasts have fallen, and oil prices have followed suit.

Falling oil prices a disaster for Russia​

Economists are particularly concerned about the situation in China—Russia's largest oil buyer. The International Monetary Fund has lowered its expectations for China’s GDP growth in 2025 from 4.6% to 4%. Falling oil prices are causing numerous problems in Russia. They have hit the stock market, where oil companies account for a quarter of the capitalization. The Micex Index, which tracks the stock prices of over 50 major listed companies, has fallen by one-tenth from the last peak.

As export revenues decline, falling oil prices directly affect the real economy. The Russian budget is already feeling the effects—in March, tax revenues from oil and gas fell by 17% compared to the previous year. On April 22, Reuters reported, citing official documents, that the government expects a sharp drop in oil and gas sales this year.

Germany also suffers. they lost hundreds of billions of euros due to crises​

Losses are also visible on the other side of the political barricade. According to the German Economic Institute (IW) in Cologne, over the past three years, the German economy has not managed to exceed the level of 2019 after an initial post-pandemic recovery. Without pandemic-related losses and subsequent crises, German GDP would be about 735 billion euros higher.

The most serious crisis since German reunification​

Michael Grömling, Chief Economist at the IW, emphasizes the gravity of the current situation, describing it as the most severe economic downturn Germany has faced since reunification. He attributes this deep crisis to the combined effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, which have effectively brought business investments to a standstill, thereby constraining the country's production capacity in the foreseeable future.


The total economic losses due to reduced private consumption over the past five years are estimated to be over 470 billion euros. This translates to about 6,000 dollars per German resident.

Grömling also highlights a notable change in the pattern of economic losses. He explains that during the pandemic's peak, the decline in consumer spending was the primary driver of economic damage. However, in more recent years, the growing impact has come from a significant shortfall in investment, which has become the dominant source of financial strain.

The Micex Index, which tracks the stock prices of over 50 major listed companies, has fallen by one-tenth from the last peak.

Meh...we were down 20% and have negative GDP growth. Maybe we should take notes on how to run an economy.

Again... does not help this thread at all. Keep it to yourself.

The Russian economy has punted it's woes down the field. They gained the field position for now but they are in defense now with their economy and you can't move the ball in your favor that way. Sooner or later the other team scores and that will happen. It is all about energy prices... they go low, Russia is done for economically.

my $.0002, as long as price of gas/oil are not bottoming out and countries buy it from Russia, their economy isn't going to crash.

i don't see opec, or USA for that matter, wanting energy prices to crash.

OPEC+ just raised output into a weakening global economy. Mostly because Saudi Arabia seems like they are done subsidizing other OPEC countries that can never maintain their quotas so not so sure of OPEC has will to keep prices up. Trump personally wants price down.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-set-make-another-accelerated-oil-output-hike-june-sources-say-2025-05-03/#:~:text=LONDON%2FDUBAI%2C%20May%203%20(,and%20expectations%20of%20weaker%20demand.

he wants to drill yet he wants prices down.

drilling oil in US isn't profitable at what $60 or less? not sure how the administration expects to "drill baby drill" in this situation.

but what do i know.

I have an answer for that but will be judged to political.

 

[fatness]

It's back to rattling sabers again, I guess to see if it works now.

Putin says he hopes there will be no need to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine

In comments aired Sunday in a film by Russian state television about his quarter of a century in power, Putin said Russia has the strength and the means to bring the conflict in Ukraine to a “logical conclusion.” Responding to a question about Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory, Putin said: “There has been no need to use those (nuclear) weapons ... and I hope they will not be required.”

 

[Chadstroma]

It's back to rattling sabers again, I guess to see if it works now.

Putin says he hopes there will be no need to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine

In comments aired Sunday in a film by Russian state television about his quarter of a century in power, Putin said Russia has the strength and the means to bring the conflict in Ukraine to a “logical conclusion.” Responding to a question about Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory, Putin said: “There has been no need to use those (nuclear) weapons ... and I hope they will not be required.”

So, it is Monday already?

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Allies seek deal on more Patriots for Kyiv before NATO summit, source says

Ukraine's western allies are in discussions about supplying additional Patriot air defence systems to Kyiv and are aiming to reach an agreement before a NATO summit at the end of June, a source familiar with the matter said on Monday.
The U.S. and Greece are among the potential suppliers of these systems, according to the source who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Ukraine's Zelenskiy gets Czech pledge for more ammo, pilot training on Prague visit

The Czech Republic will expand training for Ukrainian pilots and maintain a programme to deliver artillery ammunition to Ukraine, Prime Minister Petr Fiala said on Monday, after hosting President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Fiala said on Monday that half a million shells had already been delivered since the start of 2025. Zelenskiy and Czech President Petr Pavel said on Sunday that 1.8 million rounds could come this year.
In a news conference with Zelenskiy, Fiala said a well-armed Ukraine was the best security guarantee in Europe. He said the Czech Republic would expand training of Ukrainian pilots, including for F-16 jets, without giving details.
While the Czech Republic does not own F-16s, it has supplied helicopter simulators to Ukraine. Zelenskiy supported the efforts for a Ukrainian-Czech F-16 training school. "We are ready to implement this project as soon as possible," he said.

Ukraine war briefing: Three million shells coming from our allies, says Zelenskyy

Ukraine hopes to receive 3m artillery shells from allies and partners in 2025 including 1.8m under a Czech-led programme, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in Prague on Sunday. “The Czech artillery initiative is working brilliantly,” the Ukrainian president said. Prague steers a European drive to supply artillery ammunition to Ukraine, financed largely by Nato allies. “Not only North Korea is capable of helping [Russia] in the war – we have allies who are helping Ukraine,” Zelenskyy said in comments reported by the Kyiv Independent.

Ukraine attacks Russia's Kursk region, Russian war bloggers say

Ukrainian forces attacked Russia's western Kursk region on Monday, firing missiles, smashing through the border and then crossing minefields with special vehicles, according to Russian war bloggers.

"The goal is to make them hate Ukraine": Russians intensify militarisation of children in occupied Zaporizhzhia

The Russians are intensifying the militarisation of children and increasing funding for propaganda organisations in the temporarily occupied part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Source: Ivan Fedorov, Head of Zaporizhzhia Oblast Military Administration, on the national joint 24/7 newscast

Details: "If earlier the enemy's goal was to make people love Russia, now it is to make them hate Ukraine," Fedorov said.

He stated that the Russians are doing everything to achieve this goal. In particular, they have increased funding for propagandistic militarised organisations such as Yunarmiya (Young Army) and Voyin (Warrior).

This year, the Russians plan to allocate billions of roubles for these organisations. Fedorov noted that this is "two or even three times" more than in 2024.

He also added that the Russians are constructing a network of so-called "military-patriotic" centres where children are trained in military strategy and tactics. One such centre is already being launched in the occupied city of Berdiansk in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Criminals go to fight for Russia and then return home to kill again

At least 754 Russians have been killed or seriously injured as a result of violence or unlawful acts by soldiers since Russia’s invasion, according to research by the independent media outlet Vyorstka, including 196 murders, although the outlet estimated the real number to be much higher. Seventy-six of the victims were killed not by ex-prisoners but regular soldiers returning from the war.
Last year Russia recorded 617,301 violent crimes, according to Interior Ministry figures, the highest number since 2014, and analysts contend that a culture of criminality and impunity in Russia’s military is probably playing a role in the rise in crime. In 2023, the number was 589,000, up from 437,300 in 2017.
“The front line in Russia has become a hotbed of other forms of crimes, not only murders, not only cruelty. It’s crimes committed against soldiers by front-line commanders,” said Ksenia Kirillova, an analyst at the Center for European Policy Analysis. “The problem here is the total impunity of such people.”
There are frequent reports from Russian independent media as well as patriotic military bloggers of commanders “zeroing out” their soldiers — killing them, usually by sending them on suicidal missions. Other punishments meted out to soldiers reportedly include beatings, confining them in cages or holes in the ground, and tying them to trees.

After the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989, Russia also experienced a spike in criminality from returning veterans. According to the Kommersant newspaper, some 372,000 returning veterans regularly abused alcohol and drugs, and by the end of 1989, some 3,700 had been convicted of murder and robbery. The trauma of war and lack of psychological services for those returning were blamed.
In the current war, analysts say, officers’ often-brutal methods of ensuring discipline and managing troops have exacerbated the trauma caused by the horrors of the conflict.
Many soldiers on Russia’s front line feel powerless anger at their commanders. Dozens have recorded videos describing incompetence or crimes on the part of their officers, including drug abuse, corruption, stealing soldiers’ wages, extorting them, trafficking drugs and stealing equipment.
Danil Akhipov, 24, a former engineer who blew up his hand with a grenade fuse and fled to France to avoid fighting in Ukraine, told The Washington Post that soldiers felt trapped in a system “like a conveyor belt” designed to break their will and humanity. Fights often broke out between soldiers, and drunkenness was rampant.
He served in an assault unit with high fatalities, with typically three out of a force of 15 surviving a storming operation.
“They were all bad commanders. They did not treat you as people. They didn’t care about human life. They didn’t care how many were killed,” he said. Soldiers “hated them. There was a feeling almost of violence toward them.”
Many, he said, had been changed by the war. “They have PTSD. They become very aggressive and act without any limits.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

North Korea sends nearly 15,000 migrants to Russia to cover labor market shortage, WSJ reports

North Korea sent about 15,000 labor migrants to Russia to cover the labor market shortage in the country, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on May 5, citing South Korean intelligence.

The move represents an apparent violation of United Nations Security Council resolutions passed in the wake of North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests.

War in Ukraine: what is the Magura-V7, the naval drone with which Kiev says it shot down two Russian fighter jets?

The Magura V7 is an enlarged and improved version of its little brother, the Magura V5, used to ram enemy ships with an explosive charge. Ukrainian Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, interviewed by The War Zone, refused to specify the differences between the two missiles. With its 8 m length, the V7 has better seakeeping, useful for winter operations, according to the specialized media Naval News.

The Magura V7, equipped with multiple sensors and communication antennas, used AIM-9 Sidewinder air-to-air missiles, supplied by the United States, during the attack. They are loaded on board the drone on launch rails, which are raised just before the launch. "It's a naval drone, on which they have adapted infrared-guided anti-aircraft missiles," aeronautical specialist Xavier Tytelman commented on LCI.

Ukraine claims strike in Russia's Kursk amid reports of fresh incursion

Ukraine said it hit a drone command unit in the Kursk region, amid reports of fresh attempts to cross into Russia.

Sunday's attack on the unit was located near the Russian village of Tyotkino, according to the Ukrainian general staff.

Multiple Russian military bloggers also reported that Ukrainian forces had attempted to cross into the village, posting images - as yet unverified by the BBC - of vehicles breaking through tank traps on the border.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 5, 2025

Russian sources claimed on May 5 that Ukrainian forces conducted a series of limited attacks across the Russia-Ukraine international border near Tetkino, Kursk Oblast. Russian sources claimed on May 5 that Ukrainian forces attacked across the Russia-Ukraine international border near Tetkino and Popova-Lezhachi (far west of Sudzha and southwest of Glushkovo) and Novyi Put (east of Tetkino) on the evening of May 4 and morning of May 5. Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces used mine clearing equipment to create a path through Russian minefields along the border, but that Ukrainian forces have not made significant advances in the area thus far. Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian and Russian forces engaged in a small arms clash near the Tetkino Railway Station in southern Tetkino and that Ukrainian forces later withdrew back into Sumy Oblast. A Russian source claimed that Ukrainian forces have not seized Tetkino or broken through Russia's defenses near Novyi Put. Russian sources claimed that elements of the Russian 98th Airborne (VDV) Division, likely referring to the 5th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment, other Russian military personnel, and Russian border guards are defending against the Ukrainian attacks.

Ukrainian forces are attempting to isolate Russian units near Tetkino and throughout Glushkovsky Raion. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on May 4 that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian reconnaissance and strike drone command post near Tetkino and killed up to 20 Russian servicemembers. Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation Head Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko stated that Russian forces have been training drone operators at a school in Tetkino since 2022. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces intensified drone strikes and artillery fire against Tetkino in the night of May 4 before attacking toward the settlement. Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces destroyed a bridge over the Seim River between Zvannoye (northwest of Glushkovo) and Tetkino. Other Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces are also using drones to interdict Russian logistics in the area.

The Russian military command reportedly recently redeployed elements of the 68th Army Corps and 58th Combined Arms Army to the Toretsk direction from the Kurakhove and western Zaporizhia directions.

A Russian milblogger speculated on May 4 that Russian attacks near Nova Poltavka (northwest of Myrne and northeast of Kalynove) are part of long-term Russian efforts to advance toward Myrnohrad (just east of Pokrovsk) and envelop Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk from the east and west. Russian forces re-intensified offensive operations in mid-March 2025 aimed at enveloping Pokrovsk and seizing Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad but have not made significant advances in the area since late Fall 2024 due to localized Ukrainian counterattacks and drone operations. Russian forces appeared to shift their focus toward the Novopavlivka direction in an attempt to reach the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border in recent months. Russian forces have not been able to advance the remaining three kilometers to the border in the past month, however, and may be pursuing opportunistic advances in other areas, such as near Nova Poltavka. Russian forces may attempt to leverage recent redeployments to Toretsk and eastern Pokrovsk directions as part of a mutually reinforcing effort aimed at eliminating the Ukrainian pocket southwest of Toretsk to facilitate advances toward Kostyantynivka from the south and enveloping Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.

Ukrainian sources reported on May 4 that Russian forces are defending Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) along the E-50 Donetsk City-Pokrovsk highway with anti-drone netting in the Pokrovsk direction. One of the sources stated that Russian forces are using the netting tunnels to deliver supplies from occupied Karlivka to Selydove and Novohrodivka (all southeast of Pokrovsk). The spokesperson of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Pokrovsk direction reported that Russian forces are currently conducting intense infantry assaults in small groups and mechanized assaults with infantry fighting vehicles, armored fighting vehicles, and tanks in this direction. The spokesperson stated that Russian forces are striking Ukrainian GLOCs and accumulating reinforcements in the Pokrovsk direction.

The spokesperson for a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Orikhiv direction reported on May 5 that Russian forces only have enough personnel for assaults once every two days and that larger Russian mechanized and motorcycle assaults are unsuccessful in this direction.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1919711613944242484

“In a factory in Kyiv production of the new [fiber optic FPV] drones is being ramped up from 600 a month to an expected 10,000 by the end of summer. 3DTech is one of 11 Ukrainian companies in the fibre-optic drone business. The company also makes some 3,000 kits to upgrade existing drones each month. Mihailo, commander of the Typhoon drone unit fighting in Ukraine’s east, is enthusiastic. Today 20% of his drones are the new variety, but he reckons that by the summer they will be the majority…

Oleksiy Zhulinskiy, the chief technical officer of 3dTech, says that the Chinese dominate the fibre market, and that Russian and Ukrainian buyers have bumped into one another in Chinese factories where both are vying to buy it. Pre-paid orders have sometimes been gazumped by Russian buyers who offer more money, delaying, but not stopping, deliveries to their enemy. This month 3dTech is going to begin testing its own cable.

Unlike with a kite, the fibre-optic drone’s spool flies too, unwinding as it goes. In Mr Zhulinskiy’s factory, banks of 3D printers whirr as they make them. Chinese ones were unreliable and a reason why many of Ukraine’s first-generation fibre-optic drones failed to reach their targets. Now, claims Mr Zhulinskiy, 80% do.

Still, not everyone is convinced. Olha Bihar, the commander of an artillery and drone unit on the Orikhiv front in southern Ukraine, says they are heavy and that it takes months to train a pilot to fly them. Their cable can get tangled in trees and it glints in sunlight, which can give away the location of the drone and its pilot. The drones also have a relatively short range of 10-15kms. This means that the pilot needs to be right at the front in order to hit well inside enemy territory.”

https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1919553345385332950

How bad is Russia’s war chest? Has the country entered stagflation? Why does it fear falling oil prices, but not a crash? And how is the tariff war hurting Russia?
These questions — and more — are explored in a special interview with Russian economist Vladimir Milov.

Thread:
2/ Tariff wars:

China’s economic slowdown has closed its market to many Russian products, hitting major industries hard. The China-focused Russian coal industry is struggling, and Russian non-energy and non-commodity exports are down by about a quarter compared to pre-2022 levels
3/ Tariff war will obviously exacerbate the Chinese slowdown. The slower Chinese growth, the less market for Russian goods. Share of China in the total Russian exports is as high as a third now - we're heavily dependent on this market and its well-being.
4/Oil prices:

The biggest loser from the falling oil prices is not Russia, and not OPEC - it's the U.S. shale oil industry. Oil production costs in the U.S. are higher. This means that, if global oil prices fall below $50, part of the U.S. oil production will be wiped off
5/ Russian oil companies can manage under $30-40, but the state budget will suffer. Putin and his allies believe they can endure low prices, anticipating a recovery. If oil stays at or below $50, it would likely be short-lived, which would please Putin.
6/ In these circumstances, I'd say the best scenario is if the international oil prices stay somewhere around $60. Given the sanctions-driven discounts, that means Russian oil is cheaper than $50. These are the prices that will significantly hurt Russia
7/ Employment:

Russia continues to face high hidden unemployment, with many workers nominally employed but on unpaid leave or downtime. Rosstat estimated hidden unemployment at 4.7 million in Q4 2024, or over 6% of the workforce. This brings the total to about 9%
8/ National Wealth Fund (NWF)

As of April 1st, the liquidity portion of NWF was $39 billion, lower than the 2024 federal budget deficit of RUR 3.5 trillion. The 2025 deficit is expected to be higher, with rising costs and declining revenues due to falling oil prices and slowdown
9/ Already now, non-oil revenue in Q1 2025 grew only by 11% year-on-year, against 26% growth in 2024, and 18% planned growth for 2025. Of which VAT, by just 9%, as opposed to 22% in 2024 and 17% planned for 2025. A slowing economy generates fewer taxes
10/ Inflation:

Nothing is working except monetary emission — printing money. The government can’t borrow, as it’s cut off from international markets. Domestically, with OFZ bond yields above 16%, Russia spends more on debt servicing than it raises from the domestic market.
11/ Authorities appear to tolerate inflation, with some State Duma members during the April 9th debate saying - "We're not Turkey or Argentina, so what difference does it make if inflation is 12-13% instead of 10%? Let’s print a couple of trillion rubles; no one will notice."
12/ No question that filling the budgetary gap with printed money will lead to even higher inflation, which will destroy any prospect for economic recovery. So, basically, the Western sanctions are working - albeit not as fast as we hoped, but still.

https://x.com/pravda_eng/status/1919696380399902840

Volunteers responsible for up to 10% of weapons purchased for Ukrainian troops, says arms manufacturers council

EU to propose blanket ban on Russian gas

The European Union’s executive will soon unveil legislation to end all Russian gas imports by the end of 2027.

The goal is at the core of a plan that the European Commission presented on Tuesday. The Commission said it will release legislation next month to ban new gas contracts with Russia — a prohibition that would kick in at the end of 2025 for short-term market purchases, and at the end of 2027 for long-term contracts.

The plan will similarly target Russian oil, but with less-binding measures. And it will go after Russian nuclear supplies, proposing upcoming measures and laws to shun Russian nuclear fuel and uranium imports.

Moscow airports close as Ukrainian drones target city for second night

Ukrainian drones have targeted Moscow for the second night in a row, forcing temporary airport closures as the Russian capital prepares for a major military parade marking the end of the second world war that is expected to draw world leaders.

 

[Chadstroma]

Oil prices plunge as OPEC+ boosts output again​

Oil prices slumped again Monday, just days after OPEC+ announced it would accelerate production for the second month in a row, putting further pressure on the Trump administration’s "Drill, Baby, Drill" plans.

As of 3:30 p.m., both international and domestic benchmarks had fallen to or just below the $60 per barrel line. Brent Crude had fallen by 1.76% to trade at $60.21 per barrel. Earlier in the day, Brent dipped as low as $59 per barrel. Similarly, West Texas Intermediate had dropped by 2.06% and was selling at $57.09 per barrel.

Prices have been on a downward trend since early April, when they fell to as low as $55 a barrel on the heels of President Donald Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs on most countries. After the president announced a 90-day pause on the tariffs, oil prices and the stock market began to bounce back, but have yet to fully recover.

The most recent downward slide was primarily caused by OPEC+’s decision to boost its oil output again in June by roughly three times more than expected.

The oil-producing bloc announced Saturday that member countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman, would be increasing production by 411,000 barrels a day starting in June.

This is dramatically higher than the roughly 137,000 that had been anticipated but matches the output increase announced for May. OPEC+ has said it will continue to monitor market conditions and may pause or reverse any of its production increases at any time.

Tensions have been growing among OPEC+ members for weeks, as Saudi Arabian officials indicated late last month that the kingdom would not prop up the market by cutting supply.

Saudi Arabia, often viewed as a leader within the group, has been looking to boost ties to Washington since Trump took office. As the president has repeatedly called for more oil to be pumped into the market, to bring down costs for consumers, it comes as no surprise that the kingdom is seeking to keep production levels high.

Analysts, however, have been warning that accelerated production levels from OPEC+ may have an unintended effect on demand and production growth within the United States.

This is partly because domestic developers are now facing additional supply chain costs brought on by Trump’s tariffs on steel and other products.

Karr Ingham, a petroleum economist and the president of the Texas Alliance of Energy Producers, told the Washington Examiner that some members are already reporting higher prices. At least one smaller oil and gas operator has seen costs for steel piping from the same supplier jump over 100% after Trump's tariff announcements.

"That's just directly increasing the cost of doing business for operators in Texas, and especially for everybody that's not the huge companies, the majority integrated oil and gas companies, and some of the larger publicly traded independents who have contracted for a lot of pipe at a certain price," Ingham said.

He also noted that while Brent and WTI prices remain right around the $60 a barrel line, the daily posted price for crude that producers are offering is even lower. As of Friday, Ingham said, WTI was priced at $54.27 and was on track to sell at an even lower price Monday.

"In real terms, and in practical terms, we're kind of inching ever closer to that $50 crude oil mark ... and that certainly matters to a lot of independent and oil and gas producers," he said.

With development costs going up and oil prices going down, industry experts have said it could become increasingly difficult for drillers to fulfill the president’s agenda and profitably pursue new projects.

Over the weekend, Kaes Van’t Hof, president of Diamondback Energy, the largest independent oil producer in the Permian Basin, posted on social media that “Drill, Baby, Drill” was “always” meaningless for the industry.

Even without the tariffs, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas estimated earlier this year that prices would need to sit at an average of $64 per barrel to support new drilling.

If oil prices remain below $60 per barrel for an extended period and the steel tariffs remain in place, developers may be forced to take on cost-cutting measures such as layoffs, drilling executives have warned.

Unless OPEC+ changes its mind on the output increase or the administration revisits the tariff conversation, Ingham indicated, announcements of layoffs or production cuts could be coming soon.

"I don't like to prejudge whether that's going to happen, and I don't like to be alarmist about it, but realistically, it shouldn't surprise anybody at this point if we start to see those two things occurring," he said.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Corner of Ukraine where Putin wants symbolic victory at any cost

Yet as Putin prepares to oversee a Victory Day military parade in Moscow on Friday, the Russian leader is desperate for a symbolic battlefield triumph he can present to his people. His aim, Ukrainian military officials say, is to have Russian boots on the ground in the Dnipropetrovsk region by the time he takes to the podium on Red Square — whatever the cost.

With its forces only two miles from the border, the Kremlin is sacrificing hundreds of troops a day in pursuit of its goal, said Colonel Andrii Nazarenko, the commander of Ukraine’s 72nd Brigade’s Unmanned Systems Battalion. “The enemy has stepped up its pressure dramatically, attacking around the clock, as it does everything to reach the border,” he said.
He said Russian troops were using motorbikes and cars to navigate their way around the battlefield, a tactic that gives them greater manoeuvrability but also leaves them vulnerable. “They are suffering huge losses, but they don’t take them into account,” he said. “They have one aim and that is to reach the Dnipropetrovsk region.”
Battle-hardened Ukrainian troops say the scenario is being repeated across Donetsk, where Russia’s army has made slow but steady advances, leaving the ruins of towns and villages in its wake.

“Everything for them is based on some kind of Victory Day-mania, so that their generals can report to Putin ‘we are so great, we did it, we took something,’” said Illia Petryna, acting deputy commander of Ukraine’s 25th Airborne Brigade. “But there has never been a Russian soldier on the territory of the Dnipropetrovsk region and we are doing everything we can to keep it that way.”

Amid missile shortage, Ukraine's air defenses are struggling under Russian ballistic attacks

The concerns mount as Russia scales up its aerial attacks across Ukraine, combining ballistic missiles and drones to overwhelm air defenses. Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv, are "definitely facing a shortage of (air defense) missiles," a source in the Air Force told the Kyiv Independent.

Ukrainian aviation expert Anatolii Khrapchynskyi said that Russia has "radically changed" its tactics by targeting central Ukraine with ballistic missiles — instead of cruise missiles — such as Iskanders and upgraded North Korean variants.

"That's an entirely different level of threat," Khrapchynskyi told the Kyiv Independent.

Ukraine has to move its six operational Patriot systems, provided by Western allies over time, across the country to defend the sky from Russian missiles and drones, according to Ukrainian aviation expert Kostiantyn Kryvolap.

Ukraine would ideally need at least two Patriot systems for every major city, such as Kyiv, Lviv, and Dnipro, to "more or less reliably" defend it using two radars to detect aerial threats, Kryvolap said.

There are seven cities across the country with a population of over 500,000 people, excluding Russian-occupied territories.

"We're facing a shortage of interceptors, limited coverage, and no system can hold out for long without constant resupply," Khrapchynskyi told the Kyiv Independent, underscoring that Ukraine would need at least eight or nine Patriot batteries in total, including at least three just for Kyiv.

"But even the best system is still just a platform. Without missiles, it's just blinking lights," he added.

The sheer number of Russian attacks using ballistic missiles, which are "complex, fast, and often upgraded," have forced Ukraine into an increasingly tough situation, especially with the persisting risk that the U.S. could cut off its military aid to Kyiv again, according to the expert.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 6, 2025

Ukrainian forces continued limited attacks across the international border near Tetkino and Novyi Put, Kursk Oblast. Russian milbloggers claimed on May 6 that Russian forces repelled the Ukrainian attacks near Novyi Put and Volfino (southwest of Glushkovo) and that fighting continued near the railway station in southern Tetkino (southwest of Glushkovo). Several Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces seized up to two streets in southwestern Tetkino, but ISW has not observed confirmation of this claim. Russian milbloggers claimed that elements of the Russian 83rd Airborne (VDV) Brigade, 217th VDV Regiment (98th VDV Division), and 56th VDV Regiment (7th VDV Division) are defending near Tetkino.

Ukrainian forces also continued drone, air, and artillery strikes aimed at isolating Russian units in and near Tetkino. Geolocated footage published on May 6 shows Ukrainian forces conducting a Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) guided munition strike on a Russian position in southwestern Tetkino, indicating that Russian forces maintain positions near the Tetkino Railway Station. Russian milbloggers continued to claim that Ukrainian forces are conducting drone and artillery strikes against Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to isolate Russian units near Tetkino. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian drones have interdicted and maintained fire control over an unspecified section of the 38K-040 Tetkino-Karyzh highway. Russian milbloggers claimed on May 5 that Ukrainian forces destroyed a bridge over the Seim River between Zvannoye (northwest of Glushkovo) and Tetkino.

 

[Chadstroma]

Vance says Russia ‘asking for too much’ to end war with Ukraine

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/05/07/vance-munich-meeting-russia-ukraine-00332623

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1920163429467193651

“The lesson from Ukraine is to ‘constantly update, update and update’, [Adm. Pierre Vandier, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Transformation] says, noting the success rate of Ukraine’s naval attack drones in the Black Sea fell from 85% to less than 10% as Russia adapted.”

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1920383874552529248

Romania and the Netherlands will set up a joint F-16 maintenance training center for Ukraine.

The center, likely set up at Fetesti Air Base, and colocated with the already in service pilot training operation, will help generate additional Ukrainian Air Force F-16 ground crew.

https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1920317721385783526

Good UP article on Ukraine's transition to corps. One interesting tidbit: Noting the challenge of a shortage of qualified staff officers, it says a newly formed corps managed to gather ~160 officers in a month, but almost half lack combat experience.

Exclusive: US, Russia explore ways to restore Russian gas flows to Europe, sources say

With a frost covering Europe's energy relations with Russia, officials from Washington and Moscow have held discussions about the U.S. helping to revive Russian gas sales to the continent, eight sources familiar with the talks have told Reuters.

Sources close to the bilateral discussions said carving out a renewed role for Moscow in the European Union's gas market could help cement a peace deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Though much of Europe has sought alternative supply, some buyers have remained, and industry officials say more could return once a peace deal is agreed.
As for Russia, nothing has hit its economy harder than the loss of most of Europe's gas market three years ago.
It now supplies 19% of Europe's demand, down from 40%, mainly consisting of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and some piped via Turkey along the TurkStream pipeline.
Washington's involvement in restoring the gas sales could help Moscow navigate political opposition in much of Europe.
U.S. involvement would also benefit Washington, giving it visibility, and possibly some control, over how much Russian gas returns to Europe, two diplomatic sources and a White House source said.

Russia building major new explosives facility as Ukraine war drags on

Russia is undertaking a major factory expansion in remote Siberia to ramp up production of a powerful explosive used in artillery shells and other munitions in the war in Ukraine, a Reuters review of publicly available state documents and satellite imagery has found.
Moscow’s ability to muster more shells than Ukraine has played an important part in Russia’s battlefield successes during the conflict, which has mostly been fought with big guns and drones. However, Moscow has needed to import huge quantities of shells from North Korea, and its own munitions stockpiles are dwindling, according to the United States and Ukraine.
The additional explosive anticipated from the project, which has not previously been reported, could help increase Moscow's firepower significantly at a time when Ukraine and its Western allies have been stepping up production of ordnance needed to thwart Russian advances, three defence analysts said. News of its existence comes as Russia has been pounding Ukraine with artillery, missile and drone strikes, and as U.S. President Donald Trump presses for a deal to end the war, which began with Moscow’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.

The new facility was expected to produce 6,000 metric tons of high explosive annually and was scheduled for completion this year, according to a draft design contract that was posted on the state procurement website in 2023 and later taken down.
That is "a huge amount" and "would be of great benefit to Russian defence capabilities," said Thomas Klapoetke, an explosives expert at Ludwig Maximilians University in Munich, when asked about the Reuters findings.
The output capacity would, for example, be enough to fill the warheads of 1.28 million of Russia's OF-29 artillery shells, a common long-range projectile that measures 152 mm in diameter, according to a Reuters calculation based on scientific literature and verified by another explosives expert.

 

[The Z Machine]

With a frost covering Europe's energy relations with Russia, officials from Washington and Moscow have held discussions about the U.S. helping to revive Russian gas sales to the continent, eight sources familiar with the talks have told Reuters.

Why?

 

[Dezbelief]

With a frost covering Europe's energy relations with Russia, officials from Washington and Moscow have held discussions about the U.S. helping to revive Russian gas sales to the continent, eight sources familiar with the talks have told Reuters.

Why?

Showers of gold

 

[Don't Toews Me]

How Putin Keeps Russia’s Battle-Hardened Veterans on His Side

Maj. Amyr Argamakov has commanded a military unit in Chechnya, served in Syria, overseen a battalion in Ukraine, and taken part in three World War II Victory Day parades in Moscow’s Red Square.

Now he has been thrust into a career in Russian politics.

The 30-year-old veteran is part of a growing crop of Russian soldiers who have been tapped to fill a wave of government positions after serving in Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin describes them as a battle-hardened cohort who “will not back down, will not deceive, and will not betray,” while his deputies enlist them to lend a veneer of valor to their own political careers.

The veterans’ faces adorn billboards that line city thoroughfares. They are invited to give lectures at schools, some of which have been renamed in their honor. TV hosts extol their exploits on the front lines, ushering them into television studios to rapturous applause.

“Man is made not for peace, but for war,” state TV anchor Vladimir Solovyov said on one such show last year, echoing a sentiment that has gained mainstream appeal despite the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Russians in Ukraine.

The war has transformed the perception of military service in Russia, which was long considered a refuge for the uneducated, unskilled and otherwise unemployable. Serving in the army now provides such a social lift that Russian celebrities travel to occupied parts of Ukraine to post photographs of themselves as evidence that they are helping the war effort, or to mend reputations tarnished by public scandal.

This elevation of Russia’s veterans aims to raise the prestige of military service and encourage more people to enlist. It also reflects Putin’s desire to head off any trouble from returning servicemen, many of whom might be traumatized by their experiences at the front. Some who have fought in Ukraine have committed violent crimes upon their return home.

“Veterans are a thorn in the side for any authorities, even if you have a victorious war,” said Russian political analyst Ekaterina Schulmann. “But especially if you don’t.”

EDF intelligence chief: May 9 has inspired Russia in Ukraine

The increase in the number of Russian attacks in Ukraine can be explained by the approach of May 9, a symbolic date that has motivated tactical commanders to push their assault units to act even more aggressively, Col. Ants Kiviselg, head of the EDF Intelligence Center, said at the weekly press briefing on the situation in the Ukraine war.

Kiviselg said that over the past week, the average number of daily attacks by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation has remained around 210. At the beginning of the week, Russia significantly increased the intensity of its assault operations, reaching up to 269 attacks per day.

According to Kiviselg, Russia's success in these attacks has been limited but unfortunately consistent.

"Most recently, they managed to cut off the T-0504 highway near the settlement of Malynivka, which connects Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka. It is likely the enemy will attempt to advance along a route parallel to the highway toward Kostyantynivka. This is also supported by pressure coming from the Toretsk direction. In other areas, Russian forces' attacks have not been successful, and the line of contact has not shifted," Kiviselg said.

Ukraine sees second day without Shahed drones, but Russia bombs Sumy even during Victory Day parade

Ukraine's Air Force has not recorded any use of Shahed-type loitering munitions for the second day in a row. However, Russia continues to terrorise the border areas of Sumy Oblast with guided aerial bombs. Russian forces launched around 130 such bombs over the past day, with another 50 dropped by the afternoon of 9 May.

Source: Colonel Yurii Ihnat, Head of the Communications Department of the Ukrainian Air Force Command, in a comment to Ukrainska Pravda

Details: The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russia launched around 130 guided aerial bombs on 8 May, all targeting the Sumy front. Russian Su-34 warplanes, escorted by Su-35 fighter jets, are continuing to strike Sumy Oblast with guided bombs on Friday 9 May. As of 12:30, 56 bombs have been dropped on the frontline area.

Quote: "Right as Putin's Victory Day parade is taking place, Russian tactical aircraft were striking Sumy Oblast with guided aerial bombs." [Victory Day is a Russian holiday commemorating the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in 1945, celebrated on 9 May – ed.]

Details: Ihnat noted that no Shahed kamikaze drones have been detected in Ukrainian airspace for two days (the last attack involving three waves of drones occurred on 7 May). However, Russian forces continue their aerial terror, striking Sumy Oblast with guided bombs and posing a significant threat of airstrikes in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts. As of 12:30, around 10 Russian warplanes have been observed in the air near the front line in these areas.

War in Ukraine: EU to release €1 billion from frozen Russian assets

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas announced on Friday the payment of one billion euros to Ukraine's defence industry, financed by the interest generated by Russian assets frozen in the EU.

The head of European diplomacy Kaja Kallas announced on Friday in Lviv, western Ukraine, the release of one billion euros for the Ukrainian defence industry, financed by the interest generated by Russian assets frozen in the European Union.

 

[fatness]

France, Poland pledge mutual defence in new cooperation treaty

France and Poland on Friday signed a treaty with a clause committing both countries to mutual support in case of an attack by an aggressor. French President Emmanuel Macron insisted that the treaty added to the protections in place under the countries' EU and NATO membership as he appeared alongside his Polish counterpart Donald Tusk in Nancy, France.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Exclusive: Iran to send Russia launchers for short-range missiles, sources say

Iran is preparing to deliver in the near future launchers for short-range ballistic missiles that the U.S. said Tehran sent to Russia last year for use against Ukraine, according to two Western security officials and a regional official.
The delivery of the Fath-360 launchers - if it occurs - would help support Russia's grinding assault on its neighbor and reaffirm the deepening security ties between Moscow and Tehran.
With a 75-mile (120-km) range, the Fath-360 would give Moscow's forces a new weapon to fire at Ukrainian frontline troops, nearby military targets, and population centers close to the border with Russia, analysts said.

The Western security officials and the regional official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the delivery of the Fath-360 launchers was imminent.
They declined to provide further details of the pending transfer, including why they thought the launchers were not delivered with the missiles.

"It would be much easier (for Russian forces) to launch a strike much faster ... against high-value targets," said Fabian Hinz, a research fellow with the International Institute for Strategic Studies. "They (Fath-360s) don't need a lot of launch preparations. Their flight time is incredibly short."
Deploying the Fath-360 could allow Russia to reserve its more advanced missiles, like the Iskander, for longer-range strikes at critical infrastructure, including the power grid, straining Ukraine's precious missile defenses, the analysts said.
The Fath-360 "is designed to be handled and operated by people with relatively little training," said Ralph Savelsberg, an associate professor at the Netherlands Defense Academy.
"Why would they (Russia) buy inferior Iranian missiles? The only reason I could think of is that they cannot produce a sufficient number of their own missiles," he said.
"They're not super accurate and they don't carry a very large payload. But it just adds to Ukraine's headaches."

Ukraine and allies ready for ‘unconditional ceasefire’ as leaders visit Kyiv

Ukraine and its western allies are ready to propose an “unconditional ceasefire” in a co-ordinated move that could see the US and Europe hit Russia with harsh new sanctions if the Kremlin rejects the offer, according to people familiar with the plan.
The ceasefire would be “on land, in the air and at sea for at least 30 days”, starting on Monday, they said.
Those people told the Financial Times on Friday and Saturday that Europe and Ukraine were close to finalising the proposal with the US.

Russia may close airspace over Kapustin Yar, site of Oreshnik ballistic missile launch, on May 12-13

Russia is reportedly closing its airspace over the Kapustin Yar military training and rocket launch complex from May 12 to 13, raising speculation of a possible ballistic missile launch, Ukrainian defense news outlet Militarnyi reported on May 10.

A notice about the airspace closure was published on the U.S. Defense Department's NOTAM (Notice to Airmen) website on May 10, as cited by Militarnyi.

Militarnyi noted that a similar flight ban was in place from 4 a.m. to 8 p.m. between Nov. 21 and 23, 2024, ahead of the first Russian strike with an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile strike on Ukraine.

Russia regularly uses close, and short-range ballistic missiles in aerial attacks against Ukraine, but intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) are far larger, can be equipped with nuclear payloads, and are designed to hit targets at far longer ranges.

The U.S. embassy in Kyiv issued a warning on May 9 that Russia could launch "a potentially significant" attack in the coming days, although they have previously issued similar warnings as part of its standard security protocols.

UK sends flat-packed decoys to Ukraine in bid to confuse Russian forces

The British military is sending Ukrainian forces “Ikea-style” flat-packed decoys that look like air defence systems and tanks to trick the Russians into hitting fake targets, it can be revealed.
UK troops are attempting to deceive President Putin’s forces into thinking Britain has sent more weapons to Ukraine than it has so that Russia uses up its equipment destroying cheap printed cut-outs of weapons rather than the real kit.
“We haven’t gifted a huge amount of these, so anything we can do to make the quantities look greater on the front line is advantageous to us,” explained Lowri Simner, the RAF squadron leader, as her team unveiled Raven, a novel air defence system created by the Ministry of Defence.
Simner said that adversaries equipped with satellite imagery and drones were now better able to spot the difference between inflatable tanks of the sort used in the Second World War and real ones. As a result, Taskforce Kindred, an MoD team tasked with responding to Ukrainian requests for novel kit, has worked with industry specialists to come up with new methods of deception.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Putin proposes direct peace talks with Ukraine after three years of war

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday proposed direct talks with Ukraine on May 15 in Istanbul that he said should be aimed at bringing a durable peace and eliminating the root causes of the war.

He said Russia was proposing direct talks with Ukraine in Istanbul in an attempt to "eliminate the root causes of the conflict" and "to achieve the restoration of a long-term, lasting peace" rather than simply a pause for rearmament.
"We are proposing that Kyiv resume direct negotiations without any preconditions," Putin said from the Kremlin in the early hours of Sunday. "We offer the Kyiv authorities to resume negotiations already on Thursday, in Istanbul."
Despite public and private pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump and repeated warnings from European powers, Putin has offered few concessions towards ending the conflict.
Putin said that he would speak to Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan later on Sunday about facilitating the talks, which he said could lead to a ceasefire.
"Our proposal, as they say, is on the table, the decision is now up to the Ukrainian authorities and their curators, who are guided, it seems, by their personal political ambitions, and not by the interests of their peoples."

Zelensky Demands Cease-Fire Before Agreeing to Putin’s Call for Direct Talks

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine responded cautiously on Sunday morning to Russia’s offer of direct talks, saying it was a “positive sign” but pressing for an immediate truce first, just hours after President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia had rejected a cease-fire.
Mr. Zelensky’s response did not directly address Mr. Putin’s suggestion that representatives of the two countries meet on May 15 week in Istanbul. But the Ukrainian leader said in a social media post that he “expected Russia to confirm a cease-fire” that would start on Monday.
The back and forth between Mr. Zelensky and Mr. Putin came after the leaders of France, Britain, Germany and Poland visited Kyiv and announced a Monday deadline for Russia to accept a 30-day cease-fire or face additional sanctions. The European leaders, who spoke by phone from Kyiv on Saturday with President Trump, said that the United States would also impose sanctions on Russia if Mr. Putin did not agreed to a truce.

At a late-night news conference on Saturday, Mr. Putin responded to the European deadline by asking for direct talks with Ukraine that would begin in Istanbul in the coming days, but he did not accept the cease-fire proposal. Earlier, the Kremlin spokesman said Russia would do so only if Western governments stopped supplying arms to Ukraine.

https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1921380681986318790

In response to European/U.S. demands, Putin issued an early-morning statement seeking to shift the blame onto Ukraine and proposing that Russia and Ukraine pick up where they left off 2022 in Istanbul, where Moscow sought to impose harsh peace terms.

https://x.com/Stanovaya/status/1921534240086212746

Some thoughts on Putin’s proposal for direct talks with the Ukrainians.
- By mid-April, Moscow maintained the position that it would only engage with the Americans. The Kremlin regarded Zelensky as illegitimate and clung to a (rapidly diminishing) hope that Trump, frustrated with Kyiv’s obstinacy, might agree to remove him.

- The situation began to rapidly shift on 17 April, when Witkoff, accompanied by Rubio, travelled to Paris to present a “final American proposal”. Kyiv rejected it, with backing from Macron and Starmer. Ukraine, France and the UK then coordinated an alternative proposal, which was forwarded to Washington—Reuters published both texts. On the same day, Rubio de-facto acknowledged that the deal was collapsing and that the positions of the two opposing sides were irreconcilable. He stated that the Americans might withdraw. By the end of April, despite numerous contacts among all parties, it was evident that the deal was dead.

- This was bad news for Russia, though not the worst. The core issue was not the failure of the deal itself (it was likely doomed regardless), but that Trump was now displeased with Putin. This development set the stage for subsequent events: the Easter ceasefire, the hasty “liberation” of the Kursk region, and the three-day Victory Day ceasefire. The message to Trump was clear: please stay engaged—we are making efforts.

- I am not suggesting that Trump’s withdrawal would be disastrous for Russia, but it would significantly complicate the advancement of the “normalisation” agenda in bilateral relations.

- By mid-May, it became clear that a brief ceasefire failed to impress Trump, while European leaders succeeded in staging a more compelling show of support in Kyiv, seizing the initiative and urging Trump to back an unconditional ceasefire. Putin needed something more substantial than a three-day pause. He chose to propose direct talks—a move entirely in Moscow’s interest. By then, the first problem—the Kursk region—had been resolved. On the second issue, Putin reversed his position. The third is moot, as fighting continues; he can pause operations if the West agrees to halt arms supplies.

What the agreement to direct talks does not indicate:
- That Putin fears new sanctions and has shifted his position under pressure.
- That he is reconsidering his war aims or open to concessions.
- That he intends to scale back military strikes.
- That he is genuinely seeking an agreement with Zelensky.
- That he is preparing to meet with Zelensky.

What does it mean?
It means Putin sees an opportunity to draw Ukraine into an “Istanbul-2” process, closely resembling the talks of March–April 2022, to pursue the same objectives—now including the newly annexed territories. His aim is to stall Western arms deliveries, exploit any weakening of Zelensky’s position, and exacerbate Ukraine’s internal instability. He also wants Kyiv to lift its ban on talks with Russians, which would allow broader outreach within Ukraine. He does not believe, even for a moment, that Kyiv in its current state can agree to Russian terms.

Now the hardest part. The reality is that neither Moscow nor Kyiv is ready to agree to a durable peace, as their positions are fundamentally irreconcilable. For a workable deal to emerge, either domestic change (in Russia or Ukraine) or a military breakthrough is required—more likely for Moscow, though still improbable; virtually impossible for Ukraine. A sustainable ceasefire is not currently achievable objectively. The American initiative to broker a deal is doomed to fail—at least at this stage. No agreement is realistically possible now. And finally, no level of external pressure, including the “WORST SANCTIONS IN THE WORLD”, will alter Putin’s position. His objective remains to turn Ukraine into a “friendly” state, and so long as he remains in power, he will continue either to fight or to coerce capitulation.

France in talks with Britain, Ukraine about potential troops, Macron tells paper

France is consulting with partners on how to potentially support Ukraine in its struggle with Russia with troops, French President Emmanuel Macron told newspaper Le Parisien on Saturday, without elaborating on what such a presence could include.
"We are working on the presence and strategic footprint of the partner countries. There have been several exchanges between our British, French and Ukrainian chiefs of staff, who have coordinated the work with all their partners, and all this is becoming clearer and making progress," Macron was cited in the article.
"The key is to have troops in Ukraine," he added.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

PM Fiala: Ukraine is ready for ceasefire, Putin is looking for way to avoid it

Prime Minister Petr Fiala told ČTK on Sunday that, while Ukraine is ready for a complete ceasefire, Russian President Vladimir Putin is looking for ways to avoid it, and so the pressure on Russia must continue. This is why Czechia is continuing with its ammunition initiative. The prime minister was reacting to President Putin's proposals to organise direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia to be held in Turkey.

Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský has expressed scepticism about efforts on Russia’s side to establish a ceasefire in Ukraine. The minister does not see any real steps towards it from Russia, he said on Sunday in a CNN Prima television debate. The plan for a thirty-day ceasefire was set out on Saturday during a visit to Kyiv by the leaders of the UK, France, Germany and Poland, who met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and held a phone call with US President Donald Trump. Russian President Vladimir Putin has so far not agreed to the ceasefire, but has since proposed direct talks with Kyiv.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 10, 2025

Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov rejected another US-Ukrainian general ceasefire proposal on May 10 amid continued Russian demands that any future ceasefire include conditions that support Russia's long-term goal of gaining control of all of Ukraine and would allow Russia to resume offensive operations from a more advantageous position at a time of its choosing. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced following the Coalition of the Willing meeting in Kyiv on May 10 that he, European officials, and US President Donald Trump are proposing a general ceasefire at least 30 days long beginning on May 12. Zelensky called on Russian officials to respond to the proposal and stated that Europe and the United States should impose additional sanctions on Russia's energy and banking sectors if Russia fails to agree to the ceasefire proposal. Peskov responded by claiming that Ukraine has not responded to Russian President Vladimir Putin's previous ceasefire proposals and that pressuring Russia is "useless." Peskov claimed during an interview with ABC News published on May 10 that Putin supported the idea of a ceasefire but has "questions" about how a ceasefire will account for recent and possible future Russian advances in Ukraine, Ukrainian mobilization, and Western military assistance to Ukraine. Peskov reiterated Putin's previous demands for the West to stop all military aid to Ukraine and force Ukraine to stop mobilizing and training servicemembers as a condition of a ceasefire. Putin criticized the initial March 13 US-Ukrainian general ceasefire proposal and insinuated that any ceasefire agreement should limit Ukraine's ability to mobilize and train new troops and receive military aid.

Putin, Peskov, and other Russian officials have not yet offered any comparable concessions, such as stopping Russia's own force generation and defense industrial efforts, as part of a ceasefire agreement. Russian officials appear to be trying to define the conditions of any and all ceasefires in a way that facilitates further Russian battlefield gains in the short term and supports Russia's ability to attack Ukraine again in the future. Peskov also claimed that Ukraine is trying to leverage ceasefire proposals to "escape from negotiations," questioning Trump's stated objective of using a general ceasefire as a building block to precede peace negotiations.

Merz considers Russia's proposal for negotiations with Kiev "far from sufficient"

The Russian proposal to negotiate directly with Ukraine is "a good sign" but is "far from enough", said German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Sunday, who is first demanding, together with his European partners, a thirty-day ceasefire.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Europe Wants to Arm Ukraine, but It’s Losing a Race Against Time

In an interview shortly after the vote, Mr. Chernev said Ukrainian forces were running low on long-range missiles, artillery and, above all, ballistic air-defense systems — the majority of which are manufactured in the United States, according to an analysis by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

On Friday, a congressional official said that the United States had approved Germany’s transfer of 125 long-range artillery rockets and 100 Patriot air-defense missiles to Ukraine. The critically needed weapons are made in the United States and cannot be exported — even if another country owns them — without American government approval.

While European leaders and investors appear willing to pump more money into weapons production, industry executives and experts predict it will take a decade to get assembly lines up to speed.

The Ukrainian drone pioneer racing Russia’s military machine

“Two years ago we were two steps ahead of the Russians,” according to Oleksandr Yakovenko, chief executive of one of Ukraine’s largest drone manufacturers. “Now, though, we are just one step ahead of them.”
Just last month, Russian soldiers raced on motorcycles across Ukrainian territory in such numbers that it was impossible for Kyiv’s forces to deploy enough drones to stop them all, he recalled.
“Right now [the battlefield] is not about new technology,” Yakovenko told the Financial Times in his headquarters in the Black Sea port of Odesa. “It’s about how to adapt to new strategies.”

Yakovenko, 35, the founder of TAF Drones, is at the forefront of this revolution as the war has tilted from its initial dependence on heavy artillery to this more high-tech combat.
Launched from scratch in the early months of Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, his company made 350,000 drones last year, out of a total of about 2mn made in Ukraine in 2024. It has contracts from the Ukrainian government for the same amount in the first six months of this year alone, and is hoping to expand production of constituent parts into Europe.
But Yakovenko is not celebrating. He spoke of the challenges and complexity of the drone war — from countering sophisticated Russian drone jamming systems, to having to rethink the supply chain.
For the past three years China has provided most of the thermal cameras, carbon frames and battery cells for the cheap first-person-view drones that are the footsoldiers of the drone war. Yakovenko said he spent $1.2bn in the past 18 months on Chinese components, often relying on third parties to evade export controls.
But the trade tensions between Washington and Beijing have intensified the effects of a Chinese clampdown, introduced last September, on exports of key components, including sensors for thermal cameras. Ukrainian drone companies are finding it harder to evade the restrictions.
“Even after a few weeks of the trade war we have a huge problem,” said Yakovenko. “We are having to delay orders by a month because of the crackdown.” There are only a handful of European companies that manufacture such parts, and their products are much more expensive than the Chinese ones.

One of the more successful recent Russian innovations has been the use of fibre-optic drones that cannot be jammed, as they rely on a cable about the breadth of a human hair for communication, rather than radio signal.
While Yakovenko said they were not a game-changer due to the cable’s range being limited to 20km and often breaking in sub-zero temperatures, he expects an increased use this summer, having been manufactured in Shanghai, where the winters are far warmer than in Ukraine.

One of the reasons western defence companies have been reluctant to invest in drone production is that the pace of change is relentless, he said.
The cult drone of today is often redundant within months as new models emerge. In 2023 the average distance for a kamikaze drone that explodes on impact was 5km with a payload of about 1kg, he said. “Now they can go 40km with a payload of 3kg.”

For 2025, he predicts an increased use of land drones: “It will be the year of robots with wheels. They will be used to evacuate people from the front, and if we need to send supplies to the front we don’t need to risk sending people.”
The rapid development of artificial intelligence means that pilots of “first person view” (FPV) drones may soon no longer have to be at the front line to steer them, and instead can be in an office hundreds of miles away.
But while Ukraine still has the edge over Russia at innovating, he cautioned that when it came to production, Moscow had proved more efficient. “Russia goes step by step. If it continues [like this] for two years it will be impossible [for us] to go on defending.”

 

[Don't Toews Me]

"I will wait for Putin on Thursday in Turkey," says Volodymyr Zelensky

Volodymyr Zelensky announced on X that he will "wait for Vladimir Putin on Thursday in Turkey", after the Russian president's proposal for a possible meeting. "I hope that this time the Russians will not look for reasons why they cannot do it," he said.

However, the Ukrainian leader reiterated his desire to implement a "complete and lasting ceasefire from tomorrow, to provide the necessary basis for diplomacy". "There is no point in prolonging the murders," he insisted.

Zelensky to travel to Turkey for potential talks with Putin

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday he will travel to Turkey later this week to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss a "necessary basis for diplomacy" to end the war.

Why it matters: If the meeting takes place, it will be the first time the two leaders have met since the Russia-Ukraine war began more than three years ago.

A Ukrainian official said Zelensky will be in Turkey on Thursday even if Russia doesn't agree to start a ceasefire on Monday.

 

[Chadstroma]

Satellite Images Confirm Destruction of Russian “Tor” and Shahed Drone Plant in Ukrainian Strike

A Ukrainian attack has incapacitated the "Strela" radar plant in Bryansk, leading to significant damage and disruptions in Russian defense production.

united24media.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine works with Europe to ready new Russia sanctions after no ceasefire

European leaders pushed forward their demand that Russia implement a total land, air and sea ceasefire in Ukraine by midnight Monday or face crippling sanctions.
The Europeans reiterated their ultimatum after Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected the ceasefire and proposed holding direct negotiations with Ukraine in Istanbul on Thursday instead. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he was ready to meet Putin in Istanbul even though his Russian counterpart had given no indication he himself would be part of the process.
Despite the U.S. and European ultimatum for a Monday ceasefire, Russia has continued to attack Ukrainian troops across the front lines, said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists Monday that “the language of ultimatums is unacceptable for Russia,” and repeated Putin’s demand that the “root causes” of the war need to be addressed.

Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said on state TV on Sunday that Thursday’s talks in Istanbul must be based on the 2022 document and on what he called the “real situation.”
The deputy chairman of the Federation Council, Konstantin Kosachyov, dismissed Zelensky’s offer for a meeting of leaders and said the talks should take place at the level of experts.

Europe Threatens Nord Stream 2 Sanctions to Pressure Russia on Cease-Fire

Kyiv’s European allies threatened new sanctions against Russia, including a permanent block on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline that connects Russia to Germany, if the Kremlin doesn’t agree to President Trump’s 30-day cease-fire in its war with Ukraine.

EU officials said von der Leyen discussed the idea of the bloc sanctioning Nord Stream 2 with Germany’s new Chancellor Friedrich Merz when he visited Brussels on Friday. The move would need the backing of all the bloc’s member states. It would come separately from the newly proposed EU sanctions package, meaning it could take effect if Russia refuses or violates a cease-fire.

On Saturday, Merz, in an interview with the Bild newspaper, threatened Putin with “massively aggravated sanctions” should the Russian president reject the offer of a 30-day cease-fire and refuse to negotiate a peace deal.

A senior German government official said Saturday that the new government was determined to take all political and legal measures to prevent the pipeline’s revival.

Merz has privately spoken of his disdain for Putin and criticized his own predecessors’ policies that saw Germany become reliant on Russian gas exports.

Nord Stream 2 was constructed with support by former chancellor Angela Merkel. Nord Stream 1 runs in parallel to the pipeline but is also offline.

https://x.com/Hromadske/status/1921822399105777851

Ukraine’s Air Force downed 55 of 108 Russian Shahed drones and other unmanned aerial vehicles during a nighttime attack into Monday, with 30 drones lost to radar, impacting Odesa, Mykolaiv, Donetsk, and Zhytomyr oblasts, the Air Force reported.

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1921670292658602042

GUR's website included a Russian cruise missile called the S8000 Banderol by Kronstadt JSC with a stated range of 500km that will be carried by the Orion / Inokhodets UCAV and, in the future, Mi-28 attack helicopter.

They say it includes Western components, including from Texas Instruments.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1921822499907506229

For the first time, Ukrainian Air Force Su-27s have started to carry a mix of munitions on strike missions, enabling one fighter to hit a Russian target with multiple bomb weights.

Seen here, a Ukrainian Flanker banks away, carrying 4x 250 lb GBU-39 SDBs and 1x 500 lb JDAM-ER.

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1921667916157641102

Video and photos of an unknown Russia kamikaze UAV that has been used in Sumy oblast since February. Serhii Flash says it has a range of up to 80 kilometers with a 3kg payload. For navigation, he says it uses inertial, satellite, and LTE, but it also has a video recognition system with a laser rangefinder.

Russians increased number of assaults during Putin's "ceasefire" – DeepState

DeepState, a Ukrainian group of military analysts, has reported that during the three days of the so-called "ceasefire" from 8 to 10 May, on average Russian forces launched more attacks per day than they did in April.

Taiwan to provide US$2m for mine clearance in Ukraine

Taiwan will provide US$2 million to an international mine action fund for Ukraine.

Russia brings in 'top-level' FSB Presidential Regiment to Chasiv Yar, Ukraine's army says

Russian forces attempting to take the Ukrainian city of Chasiv Yar have been bolstered by the elite FSB Presidential Regiment, Suspilne media reported on May 11.

Chasiv Yar is a strategically important town in Donetsk Oblast and the scene of an intense, long-running, and bloody battle that began in early April 2024.

According to Ivan Petrychak, spokesperson for the 24th Separate Mechanized Brigade, Russian forces continue to be unsuccessful in their attempts to capture the city, and have called upon the elite regiment for reinforcement.

Petrychak said the Russian 98th Parachute Division has been joined by the FSB Presidential Regiment, "significantly strengthening them."

"These are top-level specialists. Now we have to face very intense fighting, and very accurate and precise work," he said.

"If the Russians are using this level of specialists in urban combat, they are probably facing some difficulties as well."

The FSB Presidential Regiment — also known as the Kremlin Regiment — is responsible for the security of the Kremlin, the valuables stored within it, and state officials, as well as conducting ceremonial duties such as the Changing of the Guard at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Alexander Garden, Moscow.

It is not typically deployed to fight abroad.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Will Putin attend Ukraine peace talks in Turkey? Kremlin declines comment for now

Russia will announce who is attending proposed peace talks in Turkey on ending the war in Ukraine when President Vladimir Putin sees fit to, the Kremlin said on Tuesday, declining to say at this stage whether or not Putin will attend himself.

"The Russian side continues to prepare for the negotiations," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters when asked about the talks and Zelenskiy's demand that Putin attend. "We are not going to comment any more yet."
When asked directly who would represent Russia at the talks, Peskov said: "As soon as the president sees fit, we will announce it."

Ukraine's Zelenskiy insists on face-to-face talks with Putin in Istanbul

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will attend talks on Ukraine this week only if Russia's Vladimir Putin is also there, an aide to the Ukrainian leader said on Tuesday, challenging the Kremlin to show it is genuine about seeking peace.

Trump has offered to attend himself if necessary but a senior U.S. official said it was unclear whether anyone from the Russian government would show up. President Putin, who has questioned Zelenskiy's legitimacy, has not said whether he will take part.
"President Zelenskiy will not meet with any other Russian representative in Istanbul except Putin," Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak told Reuters.

Germany's Merz: EU to tighten sanctions on Russia if no progress on Ukraine this week

The European Union is ready to impose tougher sanctions on Russia if progress on ending the war in Ukraine is not made this week, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Tuesday, adding a new package of sanctions was prepared.
"We are waiting for (Russian President Vladimir) Putin's agreement and we agree that if there is no real progress this week, we want to work together at European level for a significant tightening of sanctions," Merz said at a news conference with his Greek counterpart.
"We will be looking at other areas, such as the energy sector and also the financial market," he said.

 

[Chadstroma]

Ukrainian woman combat medic saves unit from encirclement decimating Russians with grenade launcher - Euromaidan Press

A Ukrainian female combat medic serving on the southern Zaporizhzhia front took decisive action that saved her unit from encirclement.

euromaidanpress.com

 

[Chadstroma]

US approves transfer of 125 long-range missiles, 100 Patriots from Germany to Ukraine, NYT reports

The American-made weapons cannot be exported, even by a country that owns them, without approval from the U.S. government.

kyivindependent.com

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russia, Ukraine set for first direct talks since war began with U.S. present

The Kremlin has yet to announce who will lead the Russian delegation. Putin’s spokesman pointedly said in a Tuesday briefing that the names will be revealed “when the president deems it necessary,” suggesting that Moscow is holding off, waiting to see whether Trump indeed changes his schedule.
A senior former Kremlin official speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject said Russia would be represented by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Putin’s foreign policy aide, Yury Ushakov.

Zelenskyy prepares to travel to Turkey but no confirmation if Putin will attend talks – Russia-Ukraine war live

The Kremlin said on Wednesday that a Russian delegation would be in Istanbul on Thursday for possible direct peace talks with Ukraine, but did not disclose who would be there from Moscow’s side, reports Reuters.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Moscow would disclose the names of who is in its own delegation once president Vladimir Putin gave the order to do so.

Peskov said Putin’s offer of direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul on Thursday still stood though, and that the Russian delegation would wait for their Ukrainian counterparts to show up.

Zelenskyy to travel to Turkey for peace talks regardless of Putin’s plans

Deep State, a Ukrainian analytical group close to the defence ministry, said that Russian armed forces this week had seized more ground in the eastern Donetsk region, particularly around the flashpoint cities of Pokrovsk and Toretsk.
Ukrainian intelligence officials said Russia appears to be gearing up for a larger offensive, moving forces to key hotspots on the battlefield, rather than signalling a readiness for peace talks.

Macron says Europe readying new sanctions package against Russia ‘in coming days’

On sanctions on Russia, Macron said that the European Commission was readying “in the coming days” a new package of measures targeting “financial services, and oil, on secondary sellers” in cooperation with the U.S. in case the Kremlin does not move toward agreeing to an unconditional ceasefire.

EU readies capital controls and tariffs to safeguard Russia sanctions

Brussels is preparing to use capital controls and tariffs against Russia in case Hungary blocks the extension of the EU’s economic sanctions imposed on Moscow in response to its war in Ukraine.
The European Commission has told national capitals that a large portion of the sanctions, including €200bn in frozen Russian state assets, could be moved on to a different legal basis to circumvent Budapest’s veto, five officials briefed on the ongoing discussions told the Financial Times.
The preparations come as the EU has vowed to maintain economic pressure on Moscow amid diplomatic efforts to force Russia to agree to a proposed ceasefire and direct peace negotiations with Ukraine.

Germany arrests three Ukrainians over Russian sabotage plot

German prosecutors said on Wednesday they had arrested three Ukrainians accused of plotting sabotage attacks on goods transports on behalf of Russia.

The suspects, detained in Germany and Switzerland, had told individuals “believed to be acting on behalf of Russian state authorities” that they were ready “to commit arson and explosive attacks on goods transport in Germany”, federal prosecutors said, according to Agence France-Presse (AFP).

Europe will struggle to wean itself off Russian gas: Bousso

Europe is on track to replenish its depleted natural gas storage network using almost no Russian pipeline supplies for the first time ever. But the region's plans to completely phase out Russian gas still look like a daunting challenge.
While EU imports of Russian gas via pipelines have plummeted since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, around 19% of the bloc’s gas imports still comes from Russia through liquefied natural gas imports and via the TurkStream pipeline into central Europe.
But the bloc appears serious about changing this. The European Union last week released a roadmap for fully phasing out Russian oil and gas imports, and the European Commission next month will propose legal measures to ban remaining Russian pipeline gas and LNG imports under existing contracts by the end of 2027. The EU executive body will also propose a ban on new deals for Russian gas and existing spot contracts by the end of 2025.

So is the bloc’s plan for phasing out Russian energy a done deal?
Unfortunately, things aren't all quiet on Europe's eastern front.
First of all, member states Slovakia and Hungary, which rely on Russian oil and gas supplies and whose leaders are friendly with Russian President Vladimir Putin, have vehemently opposed the proposed ban.
True, the Commission's proposal only requires a qualified majority in the European Parliament to pass, meaning that the two central European states would not be able to block it. But their objections could complicate the process.

Fully cutting off Russian gas supplies may also prove tricky because of how concentrated the LNG market is.
Russia reached around 15% of Europe’s total LNG imports in the first four months of this year, making it the second-largest supplier behind the United States, which accounted for around 55% of supplies.
Banning Russian LNG would thus heavily increase Europe's reliance on U.S. supplies. Dependency of this scale – potentially 70% of the region’s LNG imports - could prove risky in the event of supply disruptions such as hurricanes and floods along the U.S. Gulf Coast, where the vast majority of U.S. LNG is produced.
And the EU would essentially be swapping dependency on Russia for overreliance on the United States, at a time when the U.S. has become a much less reliable partner.
On the other hand, replacing Russia's significant share of LNG imports could be made easier by an expected surge in supply over the next decade from project startups, particularly in the United States and Qatar.
Additionally, the expected decline in European gas consumption due to the rapid growth in renewables and the contraction in energy-intensive industries could make the transition away from Russian gas less painful.
Ultimately, Europe may find that slashing reliance on Russian pipeline gas was one thing, but completely decoupling from Russian energy supply may end up being a much tougher challenge.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Putin will not attend Ukraine peace talks in Turkey

Russian President Vladimir Putin is not among the names listed by the Kremlin as due to attend peace talks on the war in Ukraine in Istanbul on Thursday, despite calls from Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky for him to attend.

Russia's delegation will instead be headed by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, according to the Kremlin statement.

Zelensky had previously said he would attend the talks and meet Putin in person if the Russian president agreed, and said he would do everything he could to ensure the face-to-face meeting took place.

The Ukrainian president will be in the Turkish capital Ankara on Thursday to meet President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Ukraine and Russia Can’t Even Agree on Who Will Meet Where—if at All—for Peace Talks

According to Turkish and European officials, Putin is sending as the head of his delegation to Istanbul the same adviser who headed the Russian negotiating team back in 2022, former Culture Minister Vladimir Medinsky.

At that time, a much bigger part of Ukraine was under Russian occupation and Western heavy weapons hadn’t yet started to flow to Kyiv. The draft agreements then foresaw a ban on foreign military aid, a drastic reduction in the size of the Ukrainian military and a series of other restrictions on Ukrainian sovereignty.

Those are conditions that Kyiv and its European allies are certain to reject under current circumstances—and one of the reasons the Zelensky administration wants to hold negotiations in Ankara rather than Istanbul, so as to mark a break with that line of negotiations.

Turkish and European officials say they have been told by Zelensky’s office that any Ukrainian negotiating team that might meet with the Russians in Turkey would only do so to discuss how to implement and monitor an unconditional 30-day ceasefire.

Russian delegation for Ukraine talks includes adviser, diplomats, defence, intelligence officials

Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin announced late on Wednesday Russia's delegation to direct talks with Ukraine on settling the war, including an adviser to the president, a top diplomat and senior military and intelligence officials.
An order issued by Putin and appearing on the Kremlin website said the delegation included adviser Vladimir Medinsky and Deputy Defence Minister Alexander Fomin, who took part in the last talks held between the two sides in 2022 in the weeks following Moscow's full-scale invasion of its neighbour.

https://x.com/DimitarBechev/status/1922746188035457400

Putin could have sent Ushakov. By sending Medinsky he's signalling lack of commitment (to put it politely).

 

[fatness]

Putin is not going. Trump is not going.

The US senator Lindsey Graham, a close ally of Donald Trump, is expected to brief European leaders on Thursday in Antalya on his plans to push through Congress sanctions designed to devastate the Russian economy if Vladimir Putin does not show a willingness to negotiate the future of Ukraine in good faith.

That's an awkward sentence. To whom does "his" refer? It makes a huge difference if it's Trump's plan for sanctions or Graham's plan for sanctions. The way the rest of the article reads, it seems like Graham's plan.

 

[The Z Machine]

Putin is not going. Trump is not going.

The US senator Lindsey Graham, a close ally of Donald Trump, is expected to brief European leaders on Thursday in Antalya on his plans to push through Congress sanctions designed to devastate the Russian economy if Vladimir Putin does not show a willingness to negotiate the future of Ukraine in good faith.

That's an awkward sentence. To whom does "his" refer? It makes a huge difference if it's Trump's plan for sanctions or Graham's plan for sanctions. The way the rest of the article reads, it seems like Graham's plan.

if Graham's plans, they can't really be relied upon. He's just a Senator, not even Sec. of State.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Zelensky Arrives in Turkey to Seek Peace—but Putin Is a No-Show

Zelensky, who is slated to meet Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in capital Ankara, wasn’t expected to meet with the Russian negotiating team that separately arrived in Istanbul on Thursday morning.

But a meeting between lower-level Ukrainian negotiators and the Russians remains possible, perhaps as early as Thursday afternoon. No time for that encounter has been set so far. Senior U.S. negotiators are also scheduled to travel to Istanbul on Thursday evening and Friday.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 14, 2025

Russian officials continue to reiterate Russian President Vladimir Putin's recent call to base future negotiations with Ukraine on the early 2022 Istanbul protocols that included Russian demands for Ukraine's complete capitulation. Russian Ambassador-at-Large and former Russian occupation official, Rodion Miroshnik, claimed on May 14 that the April 2022 draft Istanbul protocols could be the basis for an agreement to end Russia's war in Ukraine. Miroshnik is echoing Putin's May 11 call to "resume" the 2022 Istanbul direct negotiations in response to the May 10 joint US-Ukrainian-European proposal for a 30-day minimum general ceasefire. Miroshnik noted that Russia and Ukraine could make "adjustments" to the 2022 Istanbul protocols to account for changes in the past three years, but specifically insisted that Russia's April 2022 demands that Ukraine significantly reduce its military capabilities and amend its constitution to add a neutrality provision that would ban Ukraine from joining any military alliances — including NATO — remain unchanged. Putin and Miroshnik are deliberately reiterating Russia's terms in the Istanbul protocols because the protocols included terms that would have amounted to Ukraine's surrender and left Ukraine helpless to defend against potential future Russian aggression — aims that the Kremlin continues to pursue. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and the New York Times (NYT) reported in March and June 2024 that they both obtained several versions of the draft protocols from the April 2022 Ukrainian-Russian peace negotiations in Istanbul. The draft protocols also would have banned Ukraine from hosting foreign military personnel, trainers, or weapon systems in Ukraine. Russia demanded that it, the United States, the United Kingdom (UK), the People's Republic of China (PRC), France, and Belarus serve as security guarantors of the agreement. Russia demanded that the guarantor states “terminate international treaties and agreements incompatible with the permanent neutrality [of Ukraine]," including military aid agreements. Russia demanded that Ukraine limit its military to 85,000 soldiers, 342 tanks, and 519 artillery systems as part of the Istanbul protocols. Russia additionally demanded that Ukrainian missiles be limited to a range of 40 kilometers (25 miles), a range that would allow Russian forces to deploy critical systems and materiel close to Ukraine without fear of strikes.

Russia demanded these terms in the first and second months of the full-scale invasion when Russian troops were advancing on Kyiv City and making gains throughout northeastern, eastern, and southern Ukraine. Russia is now attempting to reiterate these same demands after three years of war, despite the fact that Ukrainian forces have since successfully forced Russia to withdraw from northern Ukraine, liberated significant swaths of territory in Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts, and blunted the Russian rate of advance across the theater. Miroshnik's observation that Russia and Ukraine could adjust aspects of the Istanbul protocols to reflect the changes in the war over the past three years is an attempt to frame the Kremlin as willing to negotiate, which obfuscates the fact that Russia has actually maintained its long-term goal of total Ukrainian surrender. Putin, Miroshnik, and other Russian officials continue to demand Ukraine's full surrender in an attempt to secure Russia's strategic goals by drawing out negotiations while continuing to make battlefield gains.

https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1922845059050799487

Macron said all Caesar 155mm self-propelled howitzers produced in 2025 will go to Ukraine. As of April, the monthly production rate reportedly had increased to 6 from 2 in 2022, with plans to get to 12 by the end of 2025.

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1922818256861069376

The EU is on track to send Ukraine more than 1.35 million artillery shells this year, per Ukraine’s MFA

The EU is supplying roughly 3700 shells to Ukraine a day, and aims to increase that number with the “accelerated integration of the Ukrainian and European defense industries.”

Nearly half of Russians report worsening finances in 2025

In 2025, nearly half of Russians experienced a decline in their financial situation compared to the previous year.

Source: The Moscow Times, citing a survey by Anderida Financial Group, a company that manages entrepreneurs’ finances, involving nearly 2,000 Russians

Details: The survey indicates that 47% of respondents reported a deterioration in their financial situation over the past year, 40% said their earnings remained unchanged, and 13% noted an increase in income. A significant 75% of respondents admitted they frequently lack the funds to meet their current needs.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russia amassing forces for new Ukraine offensive, US officials say

As Ukrainian and Russian officials prepare to potentially meet in Turkey, Russia is amassing forces on the frontlines for a possible new offensive intended to capture more Ukrainian territory, two US officials with knowledge of the latest US assessments told CNN.

Russian commanders “aspire to generate a big force,” the first US official said, adding that the likely offensive is focused on gaining more ground in eastern Ukraine.

“Putin will attempt to take whatever land he can get right up to the outskirts of Kyiv,” the second US official said. “The Russians are going to make every effort to get what they can.”

The preparations come as Ukraine is suffering a major manpower shortage on the battlefield. US assessments show that it is largely Ukrainian drone capabilities and the effectiveness of its minefields that are holding back Russia despite its sizable manpower advantage, both in Eastern Ukraine and inside Russia’s Kursk region where Ukrainian forces still maintain a foothold.

Russia is having its own challenges amassing the forces it would like, as the two sides have continued a grinding and deadly war of attrition in eastern Ukraine. In addition, the first official told CNN that there is no indication that North Korea is currently able to significantly increase its own troops levels in Ukraine, following the loss of thousands of its soldiers in the fighting. However, for weeks now, US assessments have shown little change in Russia’s war aims, including taking control of more Ukrainian territory, despite the Trump administration urging the Kremlin to abide by a 30-day ceasefire and to enter substantive peace talks.
CNN has previously reported that surveillance feeds have been showing Ukrainian forces for several weeks that Russia is moving significant numbers of troops and hardware into positions just a few dozen kilometers back from the front line.

https://x.com/ChristopherJM/status/1923016192878326111

Zelensky confirms now that Defense Minister Rustem Umerov will head the Ukrainian side in talks with the Russians today. The goal is to discuss a ceasefire.

https://x.com/ChristopherJM/status/1923034991690129680

Zelenskyy said a ceasefire could be reached in technical talks between Ukrainian and Russian officials in Istanbul. The goal is “to attempt at least the first steps towards de-escalation, the first steps towards ending the war—namely, a ceasefire.”

Peace talks are starting in Istanbul, but who will be there?

Few expect a serious breakthrough in Turkey. By sending a third-level delegation, with nobody empowered with a mandate to make any decision, Mr Putin has all but determined the limits of the talks. Mr Zelensky was still expected to meet Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, on May 15th. America looks set also to attend with a high-level delegation headed by the secretary of state, Marco Rubio. But Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s former defence minister, who took part in peace talks abandoned without agreement three years ago, says the most that should now be expected is the “resumption of dialogue”. A Ukrainian defence source is more blunt. “This is theatre. The Russians talk about peace but we see their true intentions on our screens: massing troops in the east.” There, Russia continues to take Ukrainian territory, albeit at a snail’s pace.

 

[Dezbelief]

Drone-mounted grenade launchers have entered the fight in Ukraine

Wild Hornets, a Ukrainian drone maker, released footage on Tuesday of a mounted grenade launcher firing at enemy targets from a quadcopter.

www.businessinsider.com

Ukrainians have fitted a Bulgarian Bulspike-AP grenade launcher on a large quadcopter FPV drone.
It's been tested for months, but Wild Hornets released new combat footage of the platform on Tuesday.
A weapon like this would allow drones to attack without having to directly fly over or into a target

 

[Dezbelief]

Ukraine battle-tests Czech AI kamikaze drones immune to Russian jamming - Euromaidan Press

The MTS line of autonomous drones reportedly completes missions without GPS or radio, flying straight through hostile zones.

euromaidanpress.com

The MTS line of autonomous drones reportedly completes missions without GPS or radio, flying straight through hostile zones.

Czech company LPP Holding says it has successfully deployed its autonomous MTS drones in Ukraine, confirming their combat effectiveness and resistance to Russian electronic warfare. These unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are reportedly equipped with AI-based navigation, enabling them to operate without GPS, radio signals, or optical fiber.

At the time of publication, there was no official confirmation from Ukrainian or Czech authorities regarding the testing or combat use of these drones against Russian forces in Ukrain

e.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine loses third F-16 fighter jet, pilot rescued: Ukrainian air force

Ukraine lost an F-16 fighter jet early on Friday, the Ukrainian air force said in a statement on the Telegram messenger app.

The pilot ejected safely, it said, describing his condition as "satisfactory."

The pilot was engaged in repelling a Russian aerial attack, according to the statement, when "an emergency situation arose on board."

"The pilot moved the aircraft away from the settlement and successfully ejected," the air force said.

It didn't provide details on the plane's fate or the location of the likely crash site.

The crash is the probably the third involving the American-made F-16 since Ukraine began receiving the fighter jets from US allies in mid-2024.

Ukraine to receive all F-16s pledged by Norway by end of 2025

Norwegian Defence Minister Tore O. Sandvik has confirmed that the delivery of the F-16 fighter jets pledged to Ukraine will be completed in 2025.

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1923137381412069776

General Syrsky says that Russia's force deployed against Ukraine has up to 640,000 personnel.

GUR's Major General Vadym Skibitsky put the figure at 620,000 in March. Despite losses, Russian has increased the size of its force fighting Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 15, 2025

Medinsky explicitly described the May 2025 Russian-Ukrainian negotiations in Istanbul as a continuation of the early 2022 Istanbul negotiations during which Russia issued demands that were tantamount to Ukraine's complete capitulation. Medinsky told journalists on May 15 in Istanbul that Russia considers the May 2025 negotiations a "continuation" of previous negotiations in Istanbul in April 2022, which he claimed Ukraine interrupted. Medinsky is reiterating Putin's May 11 framing that the new bilateral negotiations in Istanbul would be based on the April 2022 Istanbul protocols draft agreement, which included terms that would have amounted to Ukraine's surrender and left Ukraine helpless to defend against potential future Russian aggression. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and the New York Times (NYT) reported in March and June 2024 that they both obtained several versions of the Istanbul protocols draft agreement. The draft protocols demanded that Ukraine forego its NATO membership aspirations and amend its constitution to add a neutrality provision that would ban Ukraine from joining any military alliances. The draft protocols also would have banned Ukraine from hosting foreign military personnel, trainers, or weapon systems in Ukraine. Russia demanded that it, the United States, the United Kingdom (UK), the People's Republic of China (PRC), France, and Belarus serve as security guarantors of the agreement. Russia demanded that the guarantor states “terminate international treaties and agreements incompatible with the permanent neutrality [of Ukraine]," including military aid agreements. Russia demanded that Ukraine limit its military to 85,000 soldiers, 342 tanks, and 519 artillery systems as part of the Istanbul protocols. Russia additionally demanded that Ukrainian missiles be limited to a range of 40 kilometers (25 miles), a range that would allow Russian forces to deploy critical systems and materiel close to Ukraine without fear of strikes.

Russia demanded these terms in the first and second months of its full-scale invasion when Russian troops were advancing on Kyiv City and making significant gains throughout northeastern, eastern, and southern Ukraine. Russia is now attempting to reiterate these same demands after three years of war, despite the fact that Ukrainian forces have since successfully forced Russia to withdraw from northern Ukraine, liberated significant swaths of territory in Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts, and blunted the Russian rate of advance across the theater. Medinsky is purposefully attempting to frame the May 2025 talks as a continuation of the April 2022 Istanbul negotiations to portray Russia's demands for Ukraine's surrender as legitimate, despite the fact that Ukraine is now in a much stronger battlefield position on the battlefield than in April 2022 and the Russian military is much weaker than in the early months of the full-scale invasion.

Medinsky also reiterated Putin's longstanding demands that any resolution to the war must result in regime change in Ukraine and restrictions on NATO. Medinsky claimed that Russia's goal for the May 2025 Istanbul negotiations is to "establish long-term peace by eliminating the root causes" of the war. Russian officials routinely demand that any peace agreement address the war's "root causes," which Russian officials define as NATO's alleged violation of commitments not to expand into eastern Europe and along Russia's borders in the 1990s, 2000s, and 2010s, and the Ukrainian government's alleged discrimination against Russians and Russian language, media, and culture in Ukraine. Russian officials have leveraged claims that Ukraine has mistreated Russian speakers in Ukraine to justify the Kremlin's demands for regime change in Ukraine, the establishment of a pro-Russian proxy government in Kyiv, and Russia's occupation and illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory. Medinsky's attempt to frame May 2025 Istanbul negotiations as peace talks contradicts stated Ukrainian, US, and European efforts to first establish a longer-term ceasefire in Ukraine that would precede peace negotiations. Medinsky's framing echoes consistent Russian rejections of this sequence of events, which Ukraine and the United States have consistently supported.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russia demanded Ukraine cede land still under Kyiv's control during talks, source says

Russia demanded during talks in Istanbul that Ukraine must cede land still under Kyiv’s control during face-to-face talks, a source familiar with Friday’s negotiations told CNN.

Asked if Russia demanded that Ukraine fully withdraw from four contested eastern regions, the source said: “Yes.”

Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson are the four regions in question, which Russia attempted to illegally annex in 2022.

Russia claims these regions but does not have full control over them.

Russia-Ukraine talks "more positive than expected," Turkish official tells CNN

A Turkish official said Friday’s talks between Ukraine and Russia were “more positive than expected,” hours after the discussions wrapped up in Istanbul.

“It was more positive than expected. They didn’t use accusatory language,” the Turkish official told CNN.

The official said that Russia’s demand that Ukraine pull out of territory still under its control was made “in the context of speaking about the ceasefire.” A source familiar with Friday’s negotiations had earlier told CNN that Russia’s team made the demand that Kyiv pull out of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, the four regions which Russia attempted to illegally annex in 2022.

“At a moment where it seemed like there was an impasse, we suggested the POW exchange that will include three categories – children, civilians and soldiers. The Ukrainian side went out to get approval for it,” the Turkish official said of the agreed prisoner swap between the two nations.
The Russian team “seemed to need to consult less than the Ukrainians,” the official said, adding: “They are two sides coming to the table to talk about two different things. But the fact that they came to İstanbul can be seen as a need on their part to find a way out.”

Ukraine and Russia far apart in direct talks, but prisoner swap agreed

The talks lasted less than two hours and sharp divisions soon emerged. The Kremlin made "new and unacceptable demands", according to a Ukrainian official. That included insisting Kyiv withdraw its troops from large parts of its own territory, he said, in exchange for a ceasefire.

While there was no breakthrough on the crucial issue of a truce – as expected - there is news of one tangible result.

Each side will return 1,000 prisoners of war to the other.

"This was the very good end to a very difficult day," said Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Serhiy Kyslytsya, and "potentially excellent news for 1,000 Ukrainian families."

Russia-Ukraine Peace Talks Fail to Make Major Headway After Russia Demands More Land

In the talks, Medinsky responded to a Ukrainian request for an unconditional cease-fire by saying that Ukraine must first hand over the entirety of the four regions claimed by Moscow. If Kyiv refused, he added according to Ukrainian officials, Moscow will demand another Ukrainian region in the future. Ukrainian negotiators said they were prepared for such demands and maintained their calm.

https://x.com/olliecarroll/status/1923357966880604303

Have an inside view into the Russia-UA talks from a well-placed source. This from Ru delegation head Medinsky says it all: “We don’t want war, but we’re ready to fight for a year, two, three—however long it takes. We fought Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?”
Medinsky continued: “And Peter the Great… you know who financed him? England and France. Sweden would still be a great power today if not for that.” I’m told this rhetoric was not unusual in the discussion. So far nothing has been agreed — not even prisoner exchanges.

https://x.com/olliecarroll/status/1923379942579908862

And another quote attributed to Medinsky: “Maybe some of those sitting here at this table will lose more of their loved ones. Russia is prepared to fight forever.”

https://x.com/olliecarroll/status/1923371616227979459

There's more. A well-placed source tells me Russia said it would agree to a ceasefire — only if Ukraine withdraws from the four "annexed" provinces Russia doesn’t even fully control. (!) Moscow also threatened to seize two more: Kharkiv and Sumy.

https://x.com/ChristopherJM/status/1923393649158586651

No breakthrough.

Ukraine officials familiar with the talks said Russia made “unacceptable” demands, linking any agreement on a ceasefire to Kyiv’s forces completely pulling out of 4 eastern Ukrainian regions only partly under Moscow’s control...

https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1923322915837120753

Ukrainian diplomatic source tells me Russians put forward last-minute demand to exclude the U.S. team from the meeting in Istanbul
"We think it’s not constructive on their side and yet another attempt to undermine the peace process. What do they have to hide from the Americans?", the Ukrainian source said
The Ukrainian diplomatic source added that if the Russians came to really solve issues, they would be glad to have Americans in the meeting
"Their demand to exclude them may point at Russians not being ready for serious peace steps and wishing simply to stall the process", the Ukrainian source said

Russia takes tough stance in Istanbul talks, threatens Ukraine with long war

Despite the heated exchanges, especially when the talks began, Ukrainian delegates Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy director of Ukraine’s intelligence directorate, and Serhii Kyslytsia, deputy foreign minister, told The Washington Post the talks eventually became constructive. Attendees spoke in multiple languages, they said, including Russian, Ukrainian and Turkish.

After the meeting, Medinsky said that the Russian side was “satisfied” with the results of the negotiations, and that Ukraine had requested a meeting of heads of state.
“We agreed that each side will present its vision for the possible future ceasefire and write it out in detail,” he said. “Once that is done and this has been discussed, too, we think it will be reasonable to continue our negotiations.” Turkey also confirmed that the two sides had agreed in principle to meet again.

 

[fatness]

Russia demanded Ukraine cede land still under Kyiv's control during talks, source says

Russia demanded during talks in Istanbul that Ukraine must cede land still under Kyiv’s control during face-to-face talks, a source familiar with Friday’s negotiations told CNN.
Asked if Russia demanded that Ukraine fully withdraw from four contested eastern regions, the source said: “Yes.”
Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson are the four regions in question, which Russia attempted to illegally annex in 2022.
Russia claims these regions but does not have full control over them.

Russia has no interest in serious talks. Everything they do is done to drag things out, hoping that the West will gradually lose interest in their invasion of Ukraine.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russian Troops Are War-Weary, but Want to Conquer More of Ukraine

Eleven Russian soldiers who are fighting or have fought in Ukraine expressed deep skepticism in interviews of diplomatic efforts that on Friday produced the first direct peace talks in three years, but were brief and yielded little. Speaking by telephone, the soldiers said they rejected an unconditional cease-fire proposed by Ukraine, adding that Russian forces should keep fighting at least until they conquer all of the four southern and eastern Ukrainian regions claimed, but only partly controlled, by the Kremlin.
“We’re all tired, we want to go home. But we want to take all of the regions, so that we don’t have to struggle for them in the future,” said Sergei, a drafted Russian soldier fighting in the eastern Donetsk region, referring to the annexed territory. “Otherwise, have all the guys died in vain?”
The interviews are a rare window into Russian military morale, underlining the domestic challenges President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia would face in ending the war on terms that fall short of his maximalist goals. The soldiers’ demands also suggest that Mr. Putin’s hasty annexation of four Ukrainian regions early in the war may have limited his current options in negotiations because a significant part of the population would view anything less as a defeat.

The soldiers, who have fought in different units and different areas, spoke with deep bitterness about their country’s officials and civilians, whom they accuse of benefiting from the war while ignoring frontline hardships. Their comments point to the difficulties Russia would face after any peace deal in integrating servicemen back into civilian life, and in moving the wartime economy back onto a civilian footing.
“Do you understand what it means for a country to have a million people who have been trained to kill without fear of blood?” said Dmitri, who fought in Ukraine for a Russian paramilitary unit until October. “A million angry killers is a pretty serious problem if they will view our rulers as men who are not on their side.”
Some of the interviewed soldiers have struggled to reconcile their personal desire for peace, and exhaustion with the war, with a need to make sense of their personal sacrifices through a victorious outcome for Russia. Although both militaries closely guard their casualty figures, independent researchers estimate that a total of more than a million Russian and Ukrainian soldiers have died or been seriously injured.

From the outset, Mr. Putin has said his invasion aims were to “demilitarize and denazify” Ukraine, which implies removing the democratically elected government in Kyiv; preventing Ukraine from ever joining the NATO alliance; and protecting Ukraine’s Russian speakers, who the Kremlin says, falsely, faced genocide.
A survey conducted in Russia in mid-April by an independent polling company, Chronicles, found that nearly half the respondents said they would not support a peace deal that falls short of those initial goals. Such polls show the difficulty that Mr. Putin would face in presenting to Russian society the current status quo in Ukraine as a victory.
Few in Russia expect Mr. Putin, who wields absolute power, to pay an immediate political cost for any peace deal. His control of the country’s media would allow him to present any outcome as a success, at least at first. But an unconvincing victory could eventually bubble up into the kind of discontent that fueled the Wagner paramilitary force mutiny in 2023.
Kremlin officials will most likely remember the Soviet Union’s withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989 after an inconclusive war, which angered many veterans and contributed to the collapse of the Communist state. An underwhelming Russian military victory in the breakaway region of Chechnya bred public discontent that helped bring Mr. Putin to power in 1999.
“Of course I want a cease-fire because even a bad peace is better than a good war,” said Dmitri, the former paramilitary soldier. “But we have also taken such a large step forward, that we cannot stop now.”
“Otherwise, is it all a game? Has Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin played a little game, killed a million people, and all is OK?” he said.
“This would not be such a good government, I think,” he added.

Ukrainian drones strike Russian ammunition depot in occupied Crimea, source says

Ukrainian security service drones struck an ammunition depot used by Russia's 126th Coastal Defense Brigade near the village of Perevalne in occupied Crimea, causing a large explosion and fire, a security source told the Kyiv Independent on May 17.

The depot, located near a key highway between Simferopol and Alushta, reportedly housed military equipment, ammunition, and fuel storage facilities. Local residents reportedly described thick smoke over the military compound.

https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1923719957872873592

The Russian demands presented in Istanbul, per Reuters and Bloomberg:

- Ukraine withdraws from the remainder of the Russian-claimed regions as precondition for ceasefire
- International recognition of Russian sovereignty over all five occupied territories
- Ukraine accepts permanent neutrality, can’t have WMD (which it doesn’t have anyways), no Western forces in Ukraine.
- Ukraine renounces claim to reparations

Interesting that the Russians apparently didn’t demand Ukrainian demilitarization or changes to Ukrainian laws that counter Russian influence.

Even so, their demands are obviously unrealistic and cross some of Kyiv’ stated red lines.

As political theater took center stage in Turkey, the war went on in Ukraine. Kyiv has few options

Russian forces recently intensified offensive operations in the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, according to Ukraine’s Southern Defense Forces spokesperson. Soldiers said Russia has a clear aim of reaching the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region, to be able to claim the capture of two out of four partially occupied territories.

“The feeling is that we will either hold out and allow the political leadership of the country to freeze the conflict along the contact line, or the enemy will break through,” said a Ukrainian soldier with the call sign Corsair Denis in the Sumy region.

https://x.com/shashj/status/1923637572955255046

Panel on shadow fleet at #LennartMeriConference. Estonian DM said this week was the first time that Russia had sent a fighter jet to protect a ship in the shadow fleet. The ship Estonia tackled was “without a flag”, he says (my understanding is that it had two spurious flags).

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1921667916157641102

Video and photos of an unknown Russia kamikaze UAV that has been used in Sumy oblast since February. Serhii Flash says it has a range of up to 80 kilometers with a 3kg payload. For navigation, he says it uses inertial, satellite, and LTE, but it also has a video recognition system with a laser rangefinder.

Flash says they are recording 30-50 of these UAVs used per day in three directions of the front. He says EW is not working against them, and they now constantly move in different directions in the air to make difficult to counter. 4/

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Sovereignty, economy, security: Ukraine's mounting challenges in the face of demographic decline

The longer the war lasts, the more Ukraine is depopulated. The challenge of reversing the country's declining demographic has reached such proportions that it is now considered a crucial issue for its security. Millions have sought refuge abroad or are currently living under Moscow's control in occupied areas. Tens of thousands of Ukrainians have been reported missing, killed in combat and bombings. While the country recorded approximately 41 million inhabitants before the invasion, official figures refer to around 36 million by the end of 2024, including five million in the 20% of Ukrainian territories controlled by the Russian army. These figures could be underestimated.
The war has shattered the country's development. The number of deaths is now estimated to be three times higher than the number of births, while the Ministry of Social Policy has recorded the lowest birth rate in its history, at 0.9 children per woman. Under such circumstances, the population is expected to reach 25 million by 2050 and continue to decline to 15 million by 2100, according to Olga Dukhnich, director of the department responsible for demography and migration at the Ukrainian think tank Frontier Institute.

The country's businesses are already suffering from a labor shortage in certain sectors, exacerbated by the commitment of hundreds of thousands of men to the military. But the shortage will be felt even more at the end of the war, when the country will need to revive its economy, according to Oleksiy Chernychov, Ukraine's minister of national unity. To achieve the goal of "doubling Ukraine's GDP in the next 10 years," Ukraine would need "four million additional people in the labor market. This means [they must] strive to encourage Ukrainians to consider Ukraine their homeland," said the official when he welcomed Le Monde in his Kyiv office.

The longer the war lasts, the more the desire to return diminishes as Ukrainians become accustomed to their new lives elsewhere. As the years go by, "Ukrainians abroad are increasingly determined to stay in their host country because their children are now enrolled in those countries' national schools, they are completing their adaptation and it is about their future," said Dukhnich. "If you are a Ukrainian mother, you do not think about your own fulfillment, but about the future of your children. And many people see more opportunities in these countries than in Ukraine."
Without any real prospect of peace on the horizon, the displaced also worry about security conditions at the end of the war, the state of the economy, political stability... "Two years ago, the majority of my friends were sure they would return once the war was over," said Oksana Devoe, a mother of three in her forties who divides her time between Amsterdam and the Ukrainian capital. "Today, that is no longer the case," she said, adding that in her opinion "many men refugees will refuse to return to the country for fear of being trapped at the borders if the war starts again." Since the beginning of the invasion, under martial law, men aged 18 to 60 have been banned from leaving Ukrainian territory.

Ukraine's loss of an F-16 fighter jet: "The most critical point is the pilots, not the planes"

"Losing planes in war, unfortunately, makes sense. When the conflict is of high intensity, losses are inevitable," says Stéphane Audrand, an international risk consultant and reserve officer.

"An air hunt is about machines and people. The most critical point for Ukraine is the pilots and not the planes," adds the military expert. For him, the loss of three F-16s since August is not critical in view of the stocks that Ukraine still has. "They have attrition rates that are acceptable, almost on the order of those of the Cold War," says the military specialist.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1923843831176286561

In a post on Facebook, the commander of the 47th Mechanized Brigade's 1st battalion Oleksandr Shyrshyn criticized the tasks/missions he was assigned on the Kursk/Sumy front and unjustified losses of life. He requested being dismissed from his post.

https://x.com/HoansSolo/status/1923849454710337850

Despite Russia reportedly sending fewer Shaheds, more are getting through. Ukrainian Air Force data shows 111 made it through in Feb — then 404 in March, 424 in April. A sharp rise in effectiveness.

https://x.com/AP/status/1923993521393922219

BREAKING: Russia overnight launched one of its most intense drone attack on Ukraine since the beginning of its full-scale invasion in 2022. Russia fired a total of 273 exploding drones and decoys overnight, Ukraine’s air force said

https://x.com/HoansSolo/status/1923853098990305394

“There are no decisions, nor are there any discussions about whether we should deploy troops to Ukraine from EU member states or from the European part of NATO,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Saturday. “This discussion does not exist, there is no necessity. There is absolutely no reason to talk about this issue at the moment. We are far from that.”

https://x.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1923796989759594595

1/ Nearly two years after Yevgeny Prigozhin died, an account has been published of a tense meeting with Vladimir Putin in which the Wagner Group leader rejected subordination to the Russian Ministry of Defence. "Zhenya, you're ******* nuts", Putin is said to have told him.
2/ The Russian journalist and warblogger Anastasia Kashevarova, who was an outspoken supporter of the Wagner Group and is writing a book on its rise and fall, has described what happened when Putin and Prigozhin met on 29 June, five days after the Wagner rebellion was called off.
3/ According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, a three-hour gathering of 35 people including Putin and Prigozhin met at the Kremlin. The Wagnerites assured Putin that they would continue to fight for him in Ukraine.
4/ Peskov says that Putin "gave his assessment of the 24 June events,... listened to the commanders' explanations and offered options for their employment and combat roles".
5/ It hasn't been disclosed until now what these 'options' were. According to Kashevarova, they were an ultimatum to Wagner to subordinate itself to the Russian Ministry of Defence, given that the Russian government was already fully funding Wagner.
6/ Kashevarova writes: "They say that the head of state was twitching, he even swore, but his presentation was factual and literate. The President's monologue was harsh, like a man. I was even told that the President directly said [to Prigozhin]: 'Zhenya, you're ******* nuts.'"
7/ "At the meeting, the President cited the figures for the cash flow that went to Wagner. Wagner was supported by the state. The figures are large, but Prigozhin still created a combat-ready unit, even though he was withdrawing money.
8/ "For example, according to the documents, the death benefits were more than 5 million rubles, but that's how much they paid in the [Wagner Group], no one knew the [details of the] financial agreements.
9/ "In the conversation, Putin proposed the option of preserving Wagner, but the money would go through government agencies, that is, it would be visible, where and what was spent.
10/ "An option was proposed, according to which the [Chechen] Akhmat Spetsnaz is currently working – [as] a division of the Ministry of Defense, but with some subjectivity. All the commanders agreed, but Prigozhin said: "This does not suit us."
11/ Kashevarova says that this effectively sealed Wagner's fate, and that of Prigozhin himself. She suggests that he rejected Putin's option "because then he was losing power over Wagner, and therefore his figure was no longer so significant."
12/ "Yes, Yevgeny Viktorovich would have retained his business, but [with] no military power."

She compares Prigozhin to Torenaga, the central figure of James Clavell's 'Shogun' – "a military leader [who] wants to unite disunited Japan, and he does not need anything else."
13/ "This is what Prigozhin dreamed of. Defending the Motherland, his only goal was more power. He created the strongest army, first-class fighters. They had a code of honour. The whole story about business is not about them.
14/ "But his story is exactly about this - money, strength and power. Many have burned on this path, how many more will burn. But he managed to create a professional army, and then he ruined it himself." /end

Russia plans 'training' launch of Yars intercontinental ballistic missile overnight on May 19, Ukraine's HUR claims

Russia is planning a "training" launch of an RS-24 intercontinental ballistic missile overnight on May 19, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) reported on May 18.

According to the agency, the missile will be equipped with a "training" warhead, and the move is intended to intimidate Ukraine, as well as EU and NATO member states.

UK Defence Intelligence: Russia has advanced in Donetsk Oblast but has failed to consolidate control

The UK Ministry of Defence has reported minor tactical successes by Russian forces in Donetsk Oblast over the past month, particularly near the city of Kostiantynivka.

Sources: UK Defence Intelligence update dated 17 May on X (Twitter), as reported by European Pravda

Details: UK Defence Intelligence notes that over the past month, Russian forces have made increased tactical gains in Donetsk Oblast, particularly near Kostiantynivka, which is adjacent to the large urban areas of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

Quote: "Russia is carrying out attacks in three areas: Chasiv Yar (12 km to the north-east), Toretsk (15 km to the south-east) and to the east of Pokrovsk along the H-32 highway [now marked T0504 on the map – ed]."

Details: The update includes a reminder that the fighting for Chasiv Yar and Toretsk has been going on for a year.

Quote: "Russia occupies the majority of both but has been unable to fully consolidate control or to exploit slow advances. Most of Chasiv Yar has been destroyed due to heavy Russian aerial and artillery bombardment. Ukrainian forces remain in several fortified buildings in defence."

Details: UK Defence Intelligence noted that Russian forces have expanded a salient southwest of Kostiantynivka, pushing forward by up to 5 km in some areas.

Quote: "Russian forces have highly likely severed the H-32 highway which connects Kostiantynikva with Pokrovsk and will likely seek to advance further on this axis in coming weeks."

 

[fatness]

Poland Seizes Boeing Aircraft Parts Headed for Russia

Polish customs officials seized five metric tons of tires for civilian Boeing aircraft en route to Russia via Belarus, the country's National Revenue Administration (NRA) said Monday. "Officers... discovered during the inspection of a truck in Koroszczyn that the driver was transporting tires used in Boeing civil planes instead of the declared car and bus tires," the NRA said. Koroszczyn is located on Poland's eastern border and neighbors the Belarusian city of Brest. "The sender of the goods was a company from Spain, and the recipient was from Azerbaijan. Criminal fiscal proceedings were initiated in connection with customs fraud. The sanctioned goods were detained," it added.

 

[fatness]

Fiber optic FPV drone destroys hidden Russian T-72B3

Just fascinating seeing a drone navigate what amounts to a crowded parking garage.

 

[Chadstroma]

Fiber optic FPV drone destroys hidden Russian T-72B3

Just fascinating seeing a drone navigate what amounts to a crowded parking garage.

I saw a video yesterday of a Russian drone hunting down a Ukrainian pick up truck loaded with supplies. Nothing the poor guy could do in the truck. The trade off on the fiber optic drones is that they are bigger and slower than the other FPV drones that can be jammed. Some 10 gauge shotguns with some steel buckshot might be the best defense.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1924789808393511325

The EU reportedly will propose lowering the G7 price cap on Russian seaborne crude exports to $50 per barrel, down from $60.

https://x.com/BBCSteveR/status/1924581574537855216

After the Putin-Trump phone call, I asked a senior aide to Vladimir Putin did the two presidents at least discuss a timeframe for a ceasefire in Ukraine? “No, they didn’t,” came the reply. Our report from Moscow.

https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1924571480957796813

Over the weekend, Oleksandr Shyrshyn, the experienced commander of the Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade's 1st Mechanized Battalion, said he submitted a request to resign in protest. According to Ukrainian journalist Yuriy Butusov, the reason is Ukraine's operation in the Tyotkino area in Kursk Oblast, which he says was poorly planned and executed. The Ukrainian General Staff announced that a working group has been formed to study Shyrshyn's allegations.

https://x.com/RALee85/status/1924625117432168636

Ukrainska Pravda reports that, amidst ongoing command issues and corruption allegations, the 155th Mechanized Brigade has recorded more than 1,200 cases of AWOL/desertion since the beginning of 2025. The main causes are transferring soldiers from different MOS' to the infantry and a lack of support, including supply of UAVs. Their sources also allege that other kickbacks were occurring in other battalions in the brigade. After the article was published, Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi ordered an additional investigation into the allegations.

https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1924540782117323027

Through the Optics of War: An analysis of leaked confidential data from Russia’s military-industrial complex by Frontelligence Insight — from thermal scopes and laser anti-UAV programs to Chinese import schemes and production bottlenecks in the optoelectronic sector. Thread:

2/ Rostec is a state-owned conglomerate that includes much of Russia’s military-industrial complex. One of its key holdings, Shvabe, specializes in optical-electronic technologies for military and dual-use applications. The original files were obtained by the @256CyberAssault
3/ In February 2024, Polyus Scientific Research Institute, part of Shvabe Holding, was tasked with advancing laser technologies to counter UAVs. This includes developing materials like active elements under a program focused on high-power lasers, running through 2033.
4/ Similarly, in 2022, JSC High-Precision Systems and JSC Research Institute "Polyus" were assigned to propose the development of a counter-UAV laser system, potentially integrated with the Pantsir-S1.
5/ In May 2024, company VOMZ, in collaboration with Shvabe, were tasked with assessing the integration of UAVs into tank fire control systems. The goal is to improve reconnaissance and target engagement at extended ranges (up to 15 km), including from concealed firing positions
6/ Concealed/Closed-position firing allows a tank to engage targets without direct line of sight, using its main gun similarly to artillery. This enables fire support at extended ranges while keeping the tank hidden from view and out of reach of conventional anti-tank weapons.
7/ Our team assumes that Russia will continue attempts to integrate various UAV systems in fire control systems across various platforms – not just tanks, in future modernization efforts aiming to increase both the range and accuracy.
8/ Military plant Krasnogorsky Zavod (KMZ) was participating in OPS-28M production: an electro-optical surveillance and targeting system used on Mi-28NM helicopters. However, an August 2024 report noted that the quality of the supplied OPS-28M units was unsatisfactory.
9/ JSC State Institute of Applied Optics was tasked with import substitution of the Catherine-XP-PCS thermal imaging camera in the T-90M fire control system. But how is Russia handling import substitution? Achieving this appears difficult — if not impossible — without China
10/ According to data from the 256th Cyber Assault Unit shared by @InformNapalm, the company “YUMAK” supplied CNC machines from Chinese firms Push Ningjiang Machine Tool Co and Tianjin No.1 Machine Tool Works to “Zenit-Investprom,” a part of Shvabe holding
11/ One internal company document, which included a detailed task list, also contained a roster of various firms within the holding, along with their assigned task. Among them, one name stood out: Shvabe Opto-Electronics, based in Shenzhen, China.
12/ According to Trademo export-import data, Shvabe in Shenzhen has consistently supplied components to the Ural Optical and Mechanical Plant and JSC Novosibirsk Instrument-Making Plant—both sanctioned by the West, including the US
13/ Last but not least is the issue of production expansion. As previously mentioned, the company from Shvabe Holding called “Zenit-Investprom” has acquired Chinese industrial equipment to support manufacturing efforts of Rostec.
14/ Further investigation into Zenit-Investprom revealed extensive correspondence with Zavod No. 9—which can be translated as “Factory No. 9” — a facility known for producing towed artillery pieces such as the D-30 howitzers, as well as tank guns, including the newer T-90 models
15/ Given that some requested equipment for expansion —like the laser heat-strengthening system—is designed for metalwork, and considering the factory produces barrels for tanks and artillery, Russia likely tries to expand its barrel production
16/ While the deadline for Zenit-Investprom’s part of the project was 2023/12/31, in April 2024 Zavod#9 sent a letter demanding proof of completed work. The letter stated that no documentation had been received and called for comprehensive action within three days
17/ Despite production delays, quality issues, and sanctions, Russia is making a certain progress in manufacturing and deploying updated technologies. The key shift since the pre-war period is integrating battlefield experience into mass production plans
18/ Barring severe economic collapse or major defeat, if Russia spends several years building and stockpiling equipment while leveraging Chinese industry and Western parts, its future military will be more modern and technologically advanced than during the 2022 invasion.

Russia’s motorbike squads may be suicidal but they are hurting Ukraine

Valerii Riabykh, a Ukrainian weapons analyst and editor of Defence Express, said: “The main idea here is to cut the time spent getting through the front line kill-zone, which is wider now than it was earlier in the war.
“While they now have fewer armoured vehicles as well as have no restriction in melting their manpower, the motorbikes are just the thing for the job,” he added.

Pavlo Narozhnyi, a Ukrainian military expert, said: “The riders could have five to 10 minutes to storm Ukrainian trenches and attack, often outnumbering those inside.”
By moving fast and spreading out, bikes and buggies are starting to prove “very effective” against Ukrainian artillery and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), he added.
“They now make up 20 to 25 per cent of Russian assaults. It is hard for Ukraine to sustain such relentless attacks,” added Mr Narozhnyi, who is also founder of Reactive Post, a non-profit that supports Ukraine’s artillery brigades.

Ukraine’s 28th Mechanised Brigade are facing the brunt of this evolving tactic as they hold the line in the besieged town of Toretsk, just east of the vital military hub of Pokrovsk.
Yevhen Alkhimov, a spokesman for the unit, said: “It’s a tactic of a thousand cuts.
“These bike assaults are made to overload our drone units and throw as many personnel as far as possible to disturb our logistics, forcing us to spend more time, drones and ammunition to find and eliminate them.”
Individual attacks are not effective on their own, Mr Alkhimov said, but as part of a broader tactical plan of exhausting and destabilising Ukrainian defences, “they are doing their job”.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Ukraine Prepares for a Russian Summer Offensive

April and early May of 2025 saw a reduction in the intensity of Russian operations, partly as a result of performative ‘ceasefires’ around Easter and Victory Day, and the redeployment of forces following the collapse of Ukrainian positions in Kursk. Russian recruitment, however, has exceeded Kremlin targets for every month of 2025. Having shuffled commanders and built-up reserves of equipment, Russia is now set to increase the tempo and scale of attacks.

The word ‘offensive’ conjures up visions of rapid manoeuvres by large mechanised units. The Russians lack the force quality to operate in this way. Instead, its summer offensive will likely have a soft launch with a steady increase in the number and scale of assaults across a broadening area around the main axis. Indeed, there are indications this process has already started.

Russia has spent some time suggesting that it might threaten Kharkiv and testing Ukrainian defences in Sumy and Zaporizhzhia. These attacks have either been intended to fix Ukrainian troops away from Donbas or forestall further Ukrainian raids across the Russian border. The main Russian effort into the summer will once again be against the key towns of Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk. Russian forces continue to plan against orders to complete the occupation of Donetsk.

Accompanying the intensifying attempts to take ground, Russia has also been innovating to work out how to degrade Ukraine’s layered drone defences. Ukraine has, for some time, been expanding its ability to knock down Russian reconnaissance drones using its own drone interceptors, thereby blinding Russian units that would otherwise direct glide bombs and ballistic missiles against targets in the Ukrainian rear. The Ukrainian interceptors, however, are guided by small radar, and Russia is now systematically working to locate and target these radar stations.

Another important line of effort for the Russians is attacking Ukraine’s UAV pilots. Here the methodology is to use direction finding, signals intelligence and reconnaissance to pinpoint the location of pilots and then target them with wire guided drones and glide bombs. This has become more effective as Russia has increased the speed at which it can pass information between its units.

Separate from Russian attacks on the front will be the continuation of a high tempo of deep strikes against Ukrainian cities, critical infrastructure, and bases. The Russians understand that these have an impact on the civilian population in Ukraine and the international community. The Kremlin will want to suggest a deteriorating situation as negotiations continue and to signal to Europe that the rear is not safe, to discourage European militaries from putting forces in country.

 

[The Z Machine]

Fiber optic FPV drone destroys hidden Russian T-72B3

Just fascinating seeing a drone navigate what amounts to a crowded parking garage.

Feels almost like that mission in GTA Vice City that I could never pass. Hated that thing.

 

[Chadstroma]

US working with allies on deliveries of new Patriot systems to Ukraine – US state secretary​

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said the United States is working closely with NATO allies that possess a certain number of Patriot air defence systems to encourage them to transfer them to Ukraine.

Details: Responding to a question from Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen, Rubio emphasised that aside from a one-week pause, the US has not halted deliveries of previously approved aid to Ukraine.

New aid packages, however, are another matter, he noted.

"The White House would have to make a determination about whether to come to Congress for a supplemental. But everything that’s been approved and congressionally appropriated is ongoing," Rubio said, adding that not all Ukrainian requests can be fulfilled.

He emphasised that Ukraine has specifically asked for Patriot systems, "which, frankly, we don’t have".

"But we are working closely with our NATO allies – there are NATO allies that do have some batteries of Patriot missiles that they could provide or transfer over to the Ukrainians – to defend, for example, the airspace of Kyiv and other places. And we’ve been encouraging on that front," he said.

"As you can imagine, none of these countries want to give up their Patriot systems either. We can’t make them fast enough," Rubio noted.

He reiterated the position that there is no military solution to the war and that everything will have to be resolved at the negotiating table.

"The fundamental challenge we have in Ukraine is this: Russia wants what they do not currently have and they’re not entitled to. And Ukraine wants what they cannot regain militarily," he said.

Background:

・Recently, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy indicated that Ukraine may receive the necessary number of air defence systems after the minerals agreement has been finalised with the United States.

・Ukraine has made repeated appeals to the US for air defence systems, but the Trump administration has suggested that European countries should assist in purchasing these systems.

 

[Chadstroma]

Russia Has Started Losing the War in Ukraine​

More than three years after Vladimir Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the myth of Russian invincibility is showing signs of collapse.

The Russian president, long adept at shaping optics to avoid the appearance of defeat, is now facing a conflict he cannot simply narrate away. Ukraine is proving to be his most consequential and costly mistake.

Putin Has Problems Beneath the Surface​

As noted by Foreign Policy magazine, May’s Victory Day parade in Moscow was meant to project strength, with Putin standing beside Chinese President Xi Jinping as troops marched across Red Square. But beneath the pageantry lies a hollow reality: Russia is bogged down in a war it cannot win, bleeding manpower, money, and morale.

Far from being isolated, Putin insists Russia is thriving. State media blames NATO expansion, American weakness, and Ukrainian stubbornness for the conflict.

Yet none of that can conceal the growing strategic dead-end.

Putin Trapped in Ukraine​

Although the Kremlin has claimed some nominal territorial gains, Russian forces are yet to cement any major breakthroughs. In particular, the battle for Pokrovsk has typified the slow-moving war of attrition this conflict has snowballed into, taking tens of thousands of lives in the process.

Western estimates suggest Russian casualties are nearing one million. With Ukrainian drone strikes multiplying and morale on the home front waning, Putin is locked in a war of attrition with no clear exit.

Ukraine Won't Be Broken​

Ukraine, for its part, has refused to break. Despite being outmanned and outgunned, it continues to innovate on the battlefield. The shift from conventional warfare to strategic, asymmetric tactics—particularly in drone and cyber warfare—has kept Russia from consolidating its hold on occupied territories. And while Ukraine’s economy suffers, its people remain fiercely defiant.

This resilience is not born of political calculation, but of survival instinct, reinforced by the brutality of Russian occupation.

Diplomatically, the Kremlin’s options are narrowing. Russia has failed to drive a wedge between Washington and Europe. On the contrary, the U.S. and newly assertive Germany, under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, have hardened their stance.

Moscow’s hopes of exploiting divisions in the West have largely evaporated, not least because of its well-documented indiscriminate bombing campaigns and scorched-earth tactics. Some reports even suggest that Putin’s generals are lying to him about the situation on the ground.

Watch the Russian Economy​

Economic stagnation may also be a worry for the West, but Russia’s situation is also deteriorating.

Its early wartime boom has fizzled. Growth has flatlined, inflation has surged, and energy revenues are under pressure from global trends beyond Moscow’s control.

Many in Russia and beyond see Putin as offering no credible postwar vision, and who can blame them?

 

[Don't Toews Me]

As Russia’s fiber optic drones flood the battlefield, Ukraine is racing to catch up

In 2025, something new has arrived. Images of kilometers-long tunnels of netting erected over entire roads, of city streets and fields covered in a dense tangle of glistening thread, and of the same FPV drone strike footage, but now with perfect camera quality.

This year’s new arrivals on the visual fabric of the battlefield have one thing in common: they are all connected with the weapon shaping entire operations: the fiber optic FPV drone.

In a war defined by constant innovation, this deceptively simple tweak to standard FPV drones makes them immune to electronic warfare (EW) and free of limitations brought by radio horizon.

The drones have already made a serious impact — from their role in Russia’s recapture of Kursk Oblast to the devastation of logistics all across the front line.

What’s more: unlike many of the full-scale war’s most effective innovations, fiber optic drones were first introduced not by pioneering Ukrainian drone teams, but by Russian forces.

Over 2024 especially, both Ukraine and Russia invested heavily in expensive EW systems to protect vehicles and other high-value targets, but against these new drones, they are rendered useless. Likewise, the same goes for radio-based drone detector devices commonly used by units to warn them of FPVs flying in the area.

As has been demonstrated by both sides on the battlefield, fiber optic also allows FPV drones to fly where they never could before.

“They're really great when you need to fly into some kind of building, like a large shed or hangar, to have a look inside if there is something there with the ability to strike it straight away,” said Oleksandr “Skhid,” an FPV drone team commander in Ukraine’s Achilles Strike Drone Regiment. “The same goes for other types of cover, and flying in forested areas.”

Speaking to the Kyiv Independent on condition of anonymity, Ukrainian soldiers from two different brigades fighting near Toretsk reported a sharp increase in vehicle casualty rates after more fiber optic drones started flying in the area, with one saying that the whole brigade had run out of medical evacuation vehicles in the space of a month.

With the technology continuing to be refined, and longer spools being fitted to larger drones on both sides, important logistical hubs could come under threat, even without the front line itself getting much closer.

“This (2025) will be the year of fiber optic,” said Kyrylo Veres, a prominent Ukrainian officer and commander of K-2, another one of the military’s top drone regiments, in an interview with Ukrainian media in March.

“But at the moment, it’s being used effectively by about one in 10 Ukrainian drone units. When we reach a point where nine out of 10 are using it, and the rest are quickly catching up, then we will see some serious results.”

In the meantime, Russia’s current advantage in the use of fiber optic — right as offensive efforts are gaining momentum across the front line with the approach of summer — is proving to be a serious challenge for the Ukrainian defense.

Putin thinks that time is on his side

The position on the battlefield is finely balanced. Russia has been slowly gaining ground. But western military analysts believe that Putin’s army may soon not have enough tanks and armoured vehicles left to advance rapidly — if they were to break through Ukrainian lines.
Ukraine’s expertise in defensive and drone warfare is also inflicting staggering losses on Russia — estimated to be 1,500 troops killed or wounded a day. But some of the same sources who cite this figure think that Ukrainian casualties are running at roughly two-thirds the level of Russia’s. Given that Ukraine’s population is roughly a quarter that of Russia’s, Putin has reason to believe that he would ultimately prevail in a war of attrition.

Putin Heads Into Trump Call Confident That He Has Upper Hand

Putin is confident that his forces can break through Ukraine’s defenses by the end of the year to take full control of four regions that he has claimed for Russia, according to a person familiar with the Russian president’s thinking who asked not to named discussing private conversations.

Putin’s confidence about Russia’s prospects on the battlefield is at odds with Western assessments. Having incurred massive casualties during more than three years of fighting, Russia lacks the capabilities to fulfill Putin’s goals, according to European officials.
“The probability of Russia achieving its objectives of conquering those four regions by the end of this year is very low,” said Ben Barry, senior fellow for land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “If Ukrainian defense collapses, then it would be very easy to gain such an advantage, but at the moment such a scenario seems very unlikely.”
That skepticism is also shared by many in the Russian military who are fighting in Ukraine, according to a person close to the Defense Ministry in Moscow. In particular, the person said, Ukraine’s drone forces have made it costly and ineffective for Russia to mount large-scale offensives.

UK hits Russia's military, financial, energy sectors with new sanctions

The new measures target the supply chains of Russian weapons systems including Iskander missiles, Kremlin-funded information operations and financial institutions that help Russia evade sanctions, Britain said.

Kyiv to receive 400,000 more shells from Czech initiative, Ukraine's PM says

Ukraine will receive 400,000 additional artillery shells in 2025 through the Czech-led munitions initiative, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal announced on May 20 on Telegram.

Czechia and Ukraine to train F-16 pilots in joint programme

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and his Czech counterpart, Petr Fiala, have agreed to cooperate in training Ukrainian pilots for F-16 fighters.

 

[Don't Toews Me]

Russia massing troops near Kharkiv Oblast ahead of possible attack, military warns

Russia may be preparing to launch new attacks in the Kharkiv sector, as indicated by the buildup of its forces near the Ukrainian border, Andrii Pomahaibus, the chief of staff of Ukraine's 13th National Guard Khartiia Brigade, said on May 21.

Speaking to Suspilne, Pomahaibus said that Russia is trying to move its forces closer to the contact line, but has so far failed to carry out attacks.

The reported preparations indicate Moscow's efforts to escalate the war despite calls by Kyiv and its partners for an unconditional 30-day truce.

"There is an accumulation of personnel closer to the state border, that is, there are attempts to involve the (Russian) personnel, obviously preparing for active assault operations. Our Defense Forces are ready to repel attacks," he said.

Exclusive: Intercepted radio chatter and drone footage appear to capture Russian orders to kill surrendering Ukrainian troops

The radio crackled, but the order barked into it was clear: Capture the commander and kill the others.
The chilling exchange was part of a series of radio transmissions between Russian forces that Ukrainian officials say provide further evidence that Russian superiors are ordering soldiers to execute surrendering Ukrainian troops in violation of international law.
The radio communications intercepted by Ukraine, which were obtained by CNN from a Ukrainian intelligence official, appear to correspond in time with drone footage of a suspected execution by Russian soldiers in Ukraine’s eastern Zaporizhzhia region last November. The footage shows six soldiers lying face down on the ground, with at least two being shot at point blank range and another being marched away.
Those deaths are under investigation by Ukrainian prosecutors, who shared a screenshot of the drone video on social media after the incident. A Ukrainian official familiar with the investigation said that the same radio intercepts CNN had obtained were being examined as part of the inquiry into the killings.
CNN has not been able to independently authenticate the radio traffic, or confirm the communications were directly linked to the drone footage, but a forensic expert who analyzed the audio files said they did not appear to have been manipulated.

Morris Tidball-Binz, the UN’s special rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions, said the radio transmissions and drone footage suggest the killing of surrendered soldiers by Russian forces, as has been reported by the UN.
Tidball-Binz, who has investigated similar suspected executions, called such incidents “grave breaches” of international law, adding that he believes this conduct could only be authorized by the highest authorities in Russia.
They “would not happen with such numbers and frequency without orders – or at the very least consent – from (the) highest military commanders, which in Russia means the Presidency,” he said.

A Western intelligence official told CNN he had reviewed the audio intercept files and “found them to be authentic, credible, and consistent with previously documented brutal executions. It is clear the soldier receives an order to execute the Ukrainian soldiers who have surrendered.”
The official said he was examining similar material from other cases, which “strengthen the evidence of a directive from Russian commanding officers to kill Ukrainian soldiers who have surrendered or are in the process of surrendering.”
The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) told CNN that Russian soldiers in the “Storm unit” of the 394th Motorized Rifle Regiment (127th Motorized Rifle Division), of the 5th Combined Arms Army, were involved in the November attack. The SBU said it had linked the same “Storm unit” to another suspected execution in the same area – the beheading of a captured Ukrainian soldier – and that it had charged in absentia Russian commanders from the unit who it said were responsible.

Six Ukrainian soldiers killed in Russian strike on training exercise

A Russian missile strike on a training exercise in Ukraine's Sumy border region has killed six servicemen and wounded more than 10 others, says Ukraine's National Guard.

Russia's defence ministry had earlier released a video purporting to show an Iskander missile attack on a training camp, and state news agency Tass said up to 70 people had died.

The Sumy region has come under repeated bombardment, and Ukraine launched a months-long occupation of part of Russia's neighbouring Kursk region from there.

The Ukrainian military said the aim of the offensive had been to help create a buffer zone to protect Sumy, but some have complained of the scale of military losses.

UK and allies warn of Russian cyber activity targeting support to Ukraine

Britain and allies including the United States issued an advisory on Wednesday warning of a Russian state-sponsored cyber campaign targeting the delivery of support to Ukraine and Western logistics entities and technology companies.
"This malicious campaign by Russia's military intelligence service presents a serious risk to targeted organisations, including those involved in the delivery of assistance to Ukraine," Paul Chichester, Director of Operations at Britain's National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC), said.
The campaign has also targeted defence, IT services, maritime, airports, ports and air traffic management systems sectors in multiple North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members, the NCSC statement said.

Russian attacks in Ukraine boost demand for Avon’s gas masks

Russian chemical attacks in Ukraine have boosted demand for gas masks produced by one of Britain’s leading defence companies.

Avon Technologies is the Wiltshire-based specialist producer of gas marks and, in the US, helmets for the American military and emergency services.

Nato countries have been buying up Avon’s anti-chemical, biological, radiation and nuclear respirators to give to Ukraine as evidence amasses of war crimes on the front line by Russian poison gas attacks.

Jos Sclater, a former GKN and Ultra Electronics finance director who has been Avon’s chief executive since early 2023, said: “Ukraine is changing everything. The zeitgeist had previously been: who was going to use chemical warfare? Now we know chemical attacks are a real threat again.”

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1925008210076807627

Denmark has announced a €562.8 million ($635 million) military aid package for Ukraine, with a major amount of funding going towards maintaining Ukraine's F-16 Fighting Falcon fleet.

Denmark has already delivered a number of F-16AM/BMs (12+ units), with 19 total pledged.

https://x.com/JohnH105/status/1925207932687257709

DIA: "North Korea almost certainly is receiving reciprocal military cooperation from Moscow— including SA-22 surface-to-air missile systems and electronic warfare (EW) equipment"

 

[fatness]

Ukraine has shown you can now buy an intelligence agency off the shelf

What Ukraine has shown is the new way of warfare. They are the teachers now. When a surface drone that costs $80,000 can sink a Russian warship or shoot down jets and helicopters hundreds of kilometres out to sea then we must not shy away from the consequences. The new, simple platforms are incredibly lethal because of the data they feed on. Data is the new oil. There are now AI, satellite and even advertising companies who have data for sale. The one thing all these companies have in common is that they are not the state. They are private companies and many of them are vital to the new ways of warfare and intelligence. Not that long ago spy satellites and data mining were the preserve of governments. Then along came Google Earth. Suddenly nothing was secret.

The commercial satellites do more than observe. Elon Musk’s Starlink isn’t NASA: it’s for hire. The commercial world now has data, AI and collection assets to rival any state. With the right knowledge and expertise individual capabilities can be woven together to create a formidable intelligence, surveillance and targeting regime. You can literally buy, off the shelf, an intelligence agency – as long as you know where to go shopping. In March Mr Trump claimed he switched off US intelligence sharing as a way bullying Zelensky to the table. His bold statements, while causing short term harm, also exposed his ignorance of modern warfare. Supportive allies and companies soon stepped into the gap. If Tesco can switch suppliers in a matter of hours so too can armies.

 

[Dezbelief]

Ukraine war briefing: Drones blast Russian plant for missile and fighter jet chips

Six Ukrainian troops die in Russian missile attack on training site; Polish navy chases ‘shadow fleet’ ship away from undersea cable. What we know on day 1,184

www.theguardian.com

Ukraine’s military said 10 of its drones hit the Bolkhovsky semiconductor plant, a supplier in the Oryol region to Russian fighter jet and missile makers. Videos online and Nasa satellite fire monitoring supported the claim. “This is one of the leading enterprises in the Russian Federation in the field of development and production of semiconductor devices and components,” said the Ukrainian military, adding that parts from the plant went into Iskander and Kinzhal missiles.



Russian military intelligence (the GRU) is targeting organisations delivering assistance to Ukraine by hacking into cameras at crossings and railway stations and near military installations, as well as such tactics as phishing emails and stealing passwords, according to the UK’s intelligence services and those of allies. Daniel Boffey writes that the unit involved – GRU Unit 26165, also known as APT 28 or Fancy Bear – has conducted the malicious cyber-campaign against public and private organisations in Nato states since 2022. In an advisory note, the UK’s National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) – part of GCHQ – called on private companies involved in the delivery of aid to “take immediate action to protect themselves”.