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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 14, 2025
Colonel: Russia lacks strength for a major offensive from Kharkiv or Sumy directions
Thousands of troops, millions of shells
EU plan to end Russian oil and gas imports due out in May
Russian forces appear to be leveraging redeployed elements of the 8th Combined Arms Army to close the Ukrainian pocket southwest of Toretsk and level the frontline as part of ongoing Russian efforts to attack Kostyantynivka from the south. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated on April 14 that elements of the Russian 150th Motorized Rifle Division (8th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) recently seized Oleksandropil, Panteleymonivka, and Valentynivka (all southwest of Toretsk) and pushed Ukrainian forces from positions east of the H-20 Donetsk City-Kostyantynopil highway. Russian milbloggers also claimed on April 13 and 14 that Russian forces pushed Ukrainian forces from positions east of the H-20 highway, seized Valentynivka, and are attacking Sukha Balka (north of Valentynivka). Mashovets stated that elements of the 20th Motorized Rifle Division (8th CAA) continue to attack north of Vozdvyzhenka (west of Oleksandropil and east of Pokrovsk) in the direction of Nova Poltavka and Novoolenivka (both northeast of Pokrovsk and west of Toretsk). Russian milbloggers recently credited elements of the 68th Tank Regiment (150th Motorized Rifle Division) with seizing Panteleymonivka and Oleksandropil and elements of the 242nd Motorized Rifle Regiment (20th Motorized Rifle Division) with seizing Kalynove (east of Pokrovsk).
Colonel: Russia lacks strength for a major offensive from Kharkiv or Sumy directions
Russia does not have the capacity to open any new major offensives, nor have new offensive forces been seen forming in various sectors, Colonel Janno Märk, Chief of Staff of the Estonian Defense Forces' (EDF) division, said.
Speaking to "Ukraina stuudio," Col. Märk said: "There has been talk of this same Kursk-Sumy sector, the Kharkiv sector, and also the South Zaporizhia direction, but these directions have been active all the time. At the moment, I can't directly see an opening of any completely new directions, and any capacity to organize any large wave of attacks. I can't see that the Russian Federation would have such forces, or that such forces could be concentrated in specific sectors."
Thousands of troops, millions of shells
The Open Source Centre, or OSC, an independent UK-based research organization focused on security, tracked 64 shipments over 20 months carrying nearly 16,000 containers and millions of artillery rounds for use against Ukraine, including a shipment as recent as March 17.
The military partnership between North Korea and Russia came to light in 2023. It took on new importance in recent weeks, when North Korean troops, weapons systems and ammunition bolstered Russian firepower to evict the remnants of Ukraine’s incursion in Russia’s Kursk region just as the Trump administration was pulling support for Ukraine.
Ukrainian officials, including the military intelligence chief, have said North Korea is supplying half the munitions Russia needs at the front — a quantity consistent with the findings by both OSC and Reuters. One expert in the Ukrainian military told Reuters that the North Korean contribution was as high as 70%, and Reuters found that at times Russian artillery units were almost wholly reliant upon North Korean munitions.
“North Korea’s contribution has been strategically vital,” said Hugh Griffiths, who from 2014 to 2019 was coordinator of the U.N. panel of experts that monitored sanctions on North Korea. “Without Chairman Kim Jong Un’s support, President Vladimir Putin wouldn’t really be able to prosecute his war in Ukraine.”
The North Korean munitions were introduced methodically. The Russian military compiles “firing tables” for artillery units based on testing performed at the Luzhsky Artillery Range, the expert in the Ukrainian military told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.
Reuters reviewed four firing tables, including a 60-page technical document with guidelines for using the North Korean shells with Russia’s M-46, a towed field gun first developed in Josef Stalin’s Soviet Union. One section, for example, warns against keeping a particular North Korean munition in a hot barrel for more than 3 minutes. It also offers specific firing angles for given distances.
With testing and specifications complete, the North Korean shells bombarded the Ukrainian frontlines. Reuters reviewed nine Russian military documents containing tables in which artillery units reported up the chain of command about munitions usage and stocks.
Six of the nine reports, which are daily snapshots of weapons usage, showed North Korean munitions were prevalent. Two from this year showed units using 100% North Korean munitions on one day and 75% on another. Last summer, a unit on the southeastern Zaporizhzhia front reported nearly 50% of the shells fired by its D-20 howitzers were North Korean 152 mm shells, while 100% of its 122 mm rockets were North Korean. Two of the reports describe extensive North Korean stocks, without specifying percentages. Three reports don’t specify North Korean ordnance.
“Without help from the DPRK, the Russian army shelling of Ukrainian defensive positions would have been cut in half,” Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate, known as GUR, wrote in response to questions from Reuters, using the acronym for North Korea.
It was around autumn 2023 that Ukraine saw its own supplies of artillery shells dwindle, forcing batteries across the frontlines to limit fire.
It’s not possible to verify the ammunition inside each shipping container, but OSC estimated what it called a conservative range of 4-6 million artillery rounds alone, based on Ukraine’s assessment of their prevalence and probable packing patterns. Either way, North Korean deliveries would be a sizable addition to Russia’s production, estimated by Ukrainian and Western officials at 2-2.3 million artillery shells in 2024. U.S. Army General Christopher Cavoli, the top U.S. general in Europe, told American lawmakers on April 3 that he anticipated Russia’s yearly production to be 3 million artillery shells, without specifying when that could happen.
GUR told Reuters that North Korea had provided 4 million artillery shells alone since the middle of 2023, more than three-quarters of them the 122mm and 152mm caliber rounds that are at the heart of Russia’s ground weaponry. GUR said North Korea provided mortar rounds as well, but did not include them in that figure.
Konrad Muzyka, a military analyst who runs Rochan Consulting, an independent security consultancy based in Poland, said Russia maintained an intensity of assaults beginning in late 2023 thanks to North Korea’s help.
“It allowed the Russians to maintain an offensive posture and constant pressure on Ukrainian forces throughout most of 2024 into 2025,” he said.
EU plan to end Russian oil and gas imports due out in May
The European Commission will announce a more detailed strategy to phase out Russian oil and gas imports next month, it said on Monday, after twice delaying the plan.
The EU has pledged to quit Russian fossil fuels by 2027 in response to Moscow's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, but the Commission has delayed publishing its "roadmap" for how to do so. The plan was initially due last month.
While Russian pipeline gas deliveries have plunged since 2022, the EU increased its imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) last year, and the bloc still got 19% of its total gas and LNG supply from Russia in 2024.
Unlike oil, the EU has not imposed sanctions on imports of Russian gas.
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