I hate having two threads like this. Ah well, here's a copy of my thoughts.
Here is the game according to my data:
Efficiencies - yards divided by points (scored and allowed).
ind 14.42 O, 14.76 D
chi 12.56 O, 18.45 D
The Bears have a better offensive and defensive efficiency. Teams with such an advantage are 21-2 in conference title and super bowl play since 1990. They are 7-0 in super bowls since 1990.
The Colts DE is especially bad. The worst DE rating of a super bowl winner since 1990? 17.06 (1998 Broncos) In fact, there is only ONE super bowl champ in history with a worse DE:
68 nyj 12.37 O, 13.44 D
Those were the Super Bowl III Namath Jets that upset the Colts. Rounding out the bottom-five Champion DEs:
83 rai 13.91 O, 15.48 D
88 sfo 16.79 O, 16.57 D
98 den 12.53 O, 17.06 D
67 gnb 14.06 O, 17.07 D
71 dal 13.02 O, 17.14 D
Magic numbers: (scoring offense ranking + scoring defense ranking)
Colts (3rd offense, 23rd defense) 3+23 = 26
Bears (2nd offense, 3rd defense) 2+3 = 5
Worst magic numbers of 20+ of conference champs since 1990:
2003 Panthers: 25
1999 Titans: 22
1991 Bills: 21
2000 Giants: 20
All lost the Super Bowl.
The 1979 Rams had a magic number of 26. They won the NFC but lost to the Steelers in the Super Bowl. Its been a long, long time since a club with a magic number as bad as the 2006 Colts went to the Super Bowl.
With regards to the Super Bowl OR AFC/NFC championship, no club since 1990 has won any of the three with a magic number as big as the Colts.
The worst magic number of a super bowl winner was 19 by the 2002 Buccaneers (18th offense, 1st defense) 18+1 = 19
Scoring differential is one more item I look at. That is points scored minus points allowed. The club with the better number here has won every super bowl since 1990 except for two cases: The 1990 Giants and 2001 Patriots - both coached by Belichick.
ind +67
chi +172
The Bears win here as well.
Here is what I wrote about the playoffs before they started:
Teams with an inferior OE and DE are 0-7 in the super bowl since 1990.
No team has won a super bowl with a magic number (26) as bad as the one the 06 Colts have.
Only the 68 Jets, in their stunning upset, won the super bowl with a DE worse than the 06 Colts.
Clubs with a superior scoring differential have only lost twice since 1990.The system selected the Bears as one of three suitable candidates to win it all. And they are the only ones left alive.
Pick: BEARS
Here is the game according to my data:
Efficiencies - yards divided by points (scored and allowed).
ind 14.42 O, 14.76 D
chi 12.56 O, 18.45 D
The Bears have a better offensive and defensive efficiency. Teams with such an advantage are 21-2 in conference title and super bowl play since 1990. They are 7-0 in super bowls since 1990.
The Colts DE is especially bad. The worst DE rating of a super bowl winner since 1990? 17.06 (1998 Broncos) In fact, there is only ONE super bowl champ in history with a worse DE:
68 nyj 12.37 O, 13.44 D
Those were the Super Bowl III Namath Jets that upset the Colts. Rounding out the bottom-five Champion DEs:
83 rai 13.91 O, 15.48 D
88 sfo 16.79 O, 16.57 D
98 den 12.53 O, 17.06 D
67 gnb 14.06 O, 17.07 D
71 dal 13.02 O, 17.14 D
Magic numbers: (scoring offense ranking + scoring defense ranking)
Colts (3rd offense, 23rd defense) 3+23 = 26
Bears (2nd offense, 3rd defense) 2+3 = 5
Worst magic numbers of 20+ of conference champs since 1990:
2003 Panthers: 25
1999 Titans: 22
1991 Bills: 21
2000 Giants: 20
All lost the Super Bowl.
The 1979 Rams had a magic number of 26. They won the NFC but lost to the Steelers in the Super Bowl. Its been a long, long time since a club with a magic number as bad as the 2006 Colts went to the Super Bowl.
With regards to the Super Bowl OR AFC/NFC championship, no club since 1990 has won any of the three with a magic number as big as the Colts.
The worst magic number of a super bowl winner was 19 by the 2002 Buccaneers (18th offense, 1st defense) 18+1 = 19
Scoring differential is one more item I look at. That is points scored minus points allowed. The club with the better number here has won every super bowl since 1990 except for two cases: The 1990 Giants and 2001 Patriots - both coached by Belichick.
ind +67
chi +172
The Bears win here as well.
Here is what I wrote about the playoffs before they started:
SUMMARY:The Colts would set and approach new record lows in a couple fundamental categories.Updated to add my super bowl pick: Patriots over Bears.
If that doesn't happen, I think it will be Ravens over Bears.
If not that, then the Bears win it all.
Those are the only three possibilites really according to the numbers.
Teams with an inferior OE and DE are 0-7 in the super bowl since 1990.
No team has won a super bowl with a magic number (26) as bad as the one the 06 Colts have.
Only the 68 Jets, in their stunning upset, won the super bowl with a DE worse than the 06 Colts.
Clubs with a superior scoring differential have only lost twice since 1990.The system selected the Bears as one of three suitable candidates to win it all. And they are the only ones left alive.
Pick: BEARS
The first comment I'll make is that, for all the supposed "recent improvement" the Colts defense made, they were horrible today. 319 yards / 34 points = a 9.38 DE.
The Saints defense was ranked 31st giving up 4.94 yards per carry.
The 32nd ranked team? The Colts! They allow 5.33 yards per carry. They've also allowed 20 rushing TDs, 31st in the NFL.
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